Four Ex-Stratfor Analysts Reunite to Predict How the World Ends
“Jacob Shapiro, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken are joined by Peter Zeihan (their former boss at Stratfor) to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of them get wrong? And what’s the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?”
Timestamps:
00:00 Reunion And Setup
01:12 Three Big Questions
02:26 Deglobalization Thesis
04:44 Energy Shock Mad Max
06:54 Demographics Demand Cliff
09:04 Deflation Vs Inflation
13:31 Winners Losers And Scale
14:26 Autonomous Drones Revolution
16:28 Semiconductors And Durable Tech
25:29 Marco Goes Nuclear
27:06 Russia Collapse Logic
31:23 Nukes Proliferation Spiral
33:56 Supply Chain Shock Russia
34:35 Putin Hell Bar Joke
35:20 Europe Expands Eastward
37:28 EU Becomes Military Union
38:38 Post Putin Chaos Nukes
45:36 China Russia Taiwan Powderkeg
50:01 Taiwan Talks Then War
52:01 Drones Nukes Deterrence
57:52 China Insecurity Demographics
01:04:09 Demography Unknowns Black Plague
01:05:13 Drones and Depopulation
01:06:54 Modernity Without More
01:07:43 Hollowed Out Nation State
01:09:20 Shocks and State Capacity
01:10:03 End of More Economics
01:10:52 Knowledge Networks Break
01:12:33 Affluence Versus Feudalism
01:14:06 AI Chips and Brittleness
01:18:52 Rome and Reversal Risks
01:19:40 Complexity and Ingenuity Gap
01:21:36 Rapid Fire Forecasts
01:22:28 Nation State Erosion
01:25:50 Paradigm Shifts and War
01:29:10 US Polarization Outlook
01:33:49 State Versus Tech Titans
01:37:08 Showdown and Wrap Up
