Posts Tagged ‘T’

Monday Market Outlook – Finally Over S&P 2,000 – Now What?

SPY 5 MINUTE2,000 finally held!  

It was a really ugly hold but we did hold 2,000 on the S&P all day long on Friday and that, as I've said for a long time, is finally a signal we need to do a little bottom-fishing.  We have already been picking up some material stocks in our Live Member Chat Room, including adding BTU ($13.29) on Friday morning to our Income Portfolio, despite a Goldman Sachs downgrade that cost them 5% pre-market.

Coal has been getting a bad rap this year as China has slowed down and, of course, its environmentally unpopular (and 300,000 people marched in NYC this weekend for action on Climate Change) but the reality is, coal use isn't going away anytime soon.  

In fact, 65% of China's energy comes from coal and, for the first time ever, China passed the EU in pollution levels per capita with each person in China producing 7.2 tons of carbon dioxide on average compared with 6.8 tons per European and just 1.9 tons per Indian.  

Of course, none of them hold a candle to the US, where we proudly produce 16.4 tons of CO2 per person!  

Still, with 1.3Bn people, China has now passed the US in overall carbon emissions, contributing to a new Global Record of 40Bn tons of CO2 added to the atmosphere in 2014.  According to a recent UN study, at this rate, the theoretical limit for carbon in our atmosphere (before irreversible damage sets in) will be hit in just 30 years.  But don't worry folks, that's just science and we can always vote Republican and ignore it. cheeky

Remember – we ARE Koch!  

Emissions grew 4.2 percent in China, 2.9 percent in the U.S. and 5.1 percent in India last year. The EU’s pollution level declined 1.8 percent because of weaker economic growth.  So coal is not going away as soon as people think and we have been literally burning off the surplus this year.  In Europe, utilities are switching back
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$1,000 Friday – Yesterday’s Oil Trade Gives Everyone a Great Weekend!

Congratulations!  

If you read yesterday's post and took action on our trade idea to short Oil Futures (/CL) at the $103 line, then you were able to pocket $1,000 PER CONTRACT in just 3 hours.  In the Morning post (delivered to our Members via Email at 8:35 am), the trade idea was:

"We're still shorting Oil (/CL) Futures at that $103 line and we hit it again this morning and, hopefully, we'll get a nice pullback around 10:30 – after the natural gas report shows a nice build."

That's about on par for our Futures trading as we demonstrated LIVE in Tuesday's Live Trading Webinar $300 of Futures profits in less than an hour (replay available here).  We'll be doing more Futures Webinars for our Members aside from our usual Tuesday Live Trading Webcasts (sign up for your Membership here so you don't miss our trade ideas).  

How to trade the Futures is one of the many things we learn at Philstockworld – another thing is PATIENCE!  Patience has kept us from chasing this rally as we once again top out the market.  On Tuesday we took a nice, speculative bullish trade (but did not officially add it to our Portfolios) - just in case we do have a breakout – but, otherwise, we've been working on our downside protection. 

We are FUNDAMENTAL traders who just so happen to use Options and Futures for leverage and hedging – simply because they are convenient and profitable instruments when used correctly.  What we teach is not all that complicated – but it isn't easy either.  That's why not many people trade Options and Futures – it requires discipline and takes time and practice to master – not really the kind of thing our education system prepares our students for these days….

YOU, however, should not be intimidated away from making money.  Our basic concepts are VERY SIMPLE and the concepts are explained in quick videos like "How To Buy a Stock for a 15-20% Discount" and "The Secret to Consistent 20-40% Annual Returns" – something we are demonstrating this year in the 5 Virtual Portfolios we track for our Members.  

Back on December 7th, for…
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Monday Market Movement – Do We Ever Go Down?

breadth

We all go down for a piece of the moment
Watch another burn to the death to the core
And the roadshow thrills pack the freaks and the phonies
Sing: now is now, yeah! – Rob Zombie 

There is just no way to win betting against this market!  

Well, actually, there is one way and that's betting that each pop is nonsense and tends to have a subsequent pullback intra-day but, long-term, the cumulative effect of all that low-volume pumping has been a rousing success, to say the least.  

As you can see from Andy Thrasher's S&P chart, there has been some amazing underlying deterioration since the July 4th weekend with the Advance/Decline line falling back to trend and stocks above their 200-Day Moving Average dropping 15% in 3 weeks.  Stocks above the 200 DMA is a fantastic leading indicator for downside move – ignore it at your own risk. 

TNXPeople are panicking into bonds, dropping the 10-Year Yield 20%, from 3.1% to 2.45% this year but it doesn't matter because Central Banksters are pumping SO MUCH MONEY into the Global Markets that there's enough to buy all asset classes simultaneously – something that is unprecedented in Financial History – what could go wrong?

Well, one thing that could go wrong is you putting your money into Mutual Funds.  As it turns out, in an S&P study of actively managed Mutual Funds, only 2 (two) out of 2,862 actually beat the S&P over ANY of the fund's lifetimes (limited to 12 months or longer).  

That's even worse than the average performace of hedge funds, which only averaged a 0.59% annual loss when compared to just putting your money directly into the S&P.

 This dovetails with a conversation we were having this weekend in our Member Chat Room, where I identified 4 trade ideas for a $50,000 Portfolio that only used 1/4 of the buying power to generate $365,512 in projected profits over the next 15 years using CONSERVATIVE options strategies designed to MATCH the S&P, not beat it.…
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Too High Tuesday? 10 Bullish Trade Ideas that Made Over 1,200%

SPY 5 MINUTEThis is ridiculous.

As noted on Dave Fry's chart, the S&P made a new record high with narrow participation and essentially all of the gains were one big move in the Futures to reprice the index.  I said yesterday we have been getting 50% of the day's volumes in the close and yesterday was no different and that closing volume is all dumping into the ETF, IRA and 401K suckers that are forced to buy.  

We took a couple of big bats against the Dow's move up yesterday, adding a DIA put at $166.80 (see yesterday's Member Chat for details) as well as going long on DXD at $26.20 – both with leveraged options plays, of course.  

SPX WEEKLY

We still have plenty of bullish trades to protect but, when we bein to cash out our winners and start buying short plays on the index – you can tell the winds are changing.  Our 500% trade on DDM from Thanksgiving was scheduled to top out in April anyway – and we sold in May to go away.  

That trade was one of our "10 Trade Ideas That Can Make (and some have already made) 500% in a Rising Market" and I had just as much trouble convincing people to go long in November as I'm having convincing people it's time to cash out in May.  

Not all the trades are done, but a quick summary of those positions is:

  • ABX 2015 $13/18 bull call spread at $2.80, selling 2015 $15 puts for $2.05 for net .75, now $2.35 – up 213%
  • 8 QQQ Jan 2014 $75/80 bull call spreads for $3 ($2,400), selling 1 ISRG 2015 $300 put for $23.50 ($2,350) for net $50, now net $2,600 - up 5,100%


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Big Prints In AT&T Put Options As Shares Touch Lowest Since January

Today’s tickers: T, HCP & DMND

T – AT&T Inc. – Heavy trading traffic in AT&T put options today indicates at least one strategist is bracing for the price of the underlying stock to potentially slump to fresh 52-week lows during the next couple of months. Shares in AT&T, down more than 13% since late April, are off 0.80% on the session at $33.61 as of 12:15 p.m. in New York trading. The wireless carrier popped up on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this morning after one strategist purchased roughly 20,000 of the Oct $31 puts for a premium of $0.25 apiece. The trade may be an outright bearish bet that shares in AT&T continue to fall in the near term, or could be a hedge to protect a long position in the underlying stock. The puts make money at expiration if shares in the telecommunications company drop 8.5% from the current price of $33.61 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $30.75. The stock last traded below $30.75 in April of 2012.  

HCP – HCP, Inc. – Options changing hands on healthcare REIT, HCP, Inc., on Wednesday morning look for shares in the name to rally during the next couple of months. The stock, down more than 20% from an all-time high of $53.06 reached in May, trades 0.80% higher on the session at $40.30 as of 11:40 a.m. ET. Trading traffic in HCP call options indicates some traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to rebound. The most actively traded contracts by volume today are the Oct $45 strike calls, with more than 5,000 call options in play against open interest of 1,902 contracts. It looks like much of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.22 apiece, thus positioning buyers to profit…
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Lilly Calls Active As Shares Soar; Put Spreads Constructed On Verizon, AT&T

 

Today’s tickers: LLY, VZ & T

LLY - Eli Lilly Co. – Shares in Eli Lilly, currently up better than 3.5% at $52.60, are rallying for a second consecutive day on encouraging results from a study of the drug maker’s experimental Alzheimer’s treatment. The stock is trading at the highest level since April 2008, and it looks like some options traders are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains, potentially taking out those five-year highs, by the start of the New Year. Bullish strategists looked to the Jan. 2013 expiry options, exchanging nearly 5,000 calls at the $52.5 strike by 11:40 a.m. ET, versus previously existing open interest of 500 contracts. Traders appear to have purchased most of the $52.5 call options for an average premium of $1.55 apiece this morning and may profit at expiration next year in the event that LLY shares exceed the average breakeven price of $54.05. Call buyers took to the Jan. 2013 $55 and $60 strike calls, as well. The $60 strike call has changed hands more than 1,500 times this morning against open interest of 340 contracts, with most of the volume purchased at an average premium of $0.10 each. Traders long the $60 calls make money in the event that Lilly’s shares surge 14% over the current price of $52.60 to top $60.10 by expiration in January. Eli Lilly’s third-quarter earnings report is just around the corner, scheduled for release on October 24th prior to the opening bell.

VZ - Verizon Communications, Inc. – Bearish options activity on wireless provider, Verizon Communications, at the start of the session suggests one strategist is bracing for a bumpy fourth quarter. The stock is down 0.65% at $46.27 as of 11:55 a.m. in New York, with six full trading sessions to go before the company reports third-quarter earnings next Thursday. The largest transaction in VZ options printed within the first 15 minutes of the opening bell in the…
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AT&T Weekly Puts In Play

 

Today’s tickers: T, FXE & OI

T - AT&T, Inc. – U.S. equities are on the decline as Europe’s woes once again take center stage. Shares in AT&T, down 0.90% at $33.24 this afternoon, are faring better than most of the other Dow components so far, though options activity on the wireless carrier suggests some strategists are bracing for further declines ahead of the long weekend. Traders exchanged more than 6,800 puts at the May 25 ’12 $33 strike against open interest of 646 open positions, and appear to have purchased the bulk of the volume at an average premium of $0.17 apiece. Bearish positions in the $33 strike weekly puts may be profitable at expiration should shares in AT&T settle below the average breakeven price of $32.83.

FXE - CurrencyShares Euro Trust – Bearish positions initiated yesterday in FXE options are worth far more on Wednesday as the Euro, and of course the Euro Currency Trust that mirrors its performance, continue to slide on fears Greece may leave the euro. Traders betting on further weakness in the currency on Tuesday picked up around 1,000 of the May 25 ’12 $125 strike puts for an average premium of $0.16 apiece. As of Wednesday afternoon just before 12:30 p.m. ET, these same contracts cost $0.60 apiece, or nearly four times as much. Overnight profits are also available for those effectively taking a short position in the currency on Tuesday. Buyers of around 1,000 deep in-the-money put options at the $127 strike for an average premium of $0.71 apiece yesterday could currently sell those contracts at $2.10 apiece for a net gain of nearly 200.0% on the position. The FXE currently trades 0.96% lower on the day at $124.96 as of 1:10 p.m. in New York.

OI - Owens-Illinois, Inc. – The maker…
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Wednesday Wheeee – No More QE For You!

SPY 5 MINUTEI hate to say I told you so but…

Oh, who are we kidding?  I could not be happier saying I told you so and neither could our Members as our "Sell in March and Go Away" strategy seems to have hit the nail on the head – and it's only April 4th!  

Back then (2/24), we were still bullish but the plan was to let the rally run its course and cash out ahead of earnings and our plays from that Wednesday (2/22) which I posted right in the morning post for all to see, have performed very well, of course.  

We had April SQQQ and DXD hedges that failed, of course, but those were paid for by the short sale of AAPL 2014 $300 puts for $15, which are already $10.75, so up 28% already on those pays for a lot of protection.  

Another offset we had looked at was the short sale of FDX April $80 puts at $1.10, which expired worthless (up 100%).  We also looked at longer-term put sales on SKX, with the Oct $12 puts fetching $1.55 per contract, now $1.25 (up 19%), and the T 2014 $25 puts at $2.15, now $1.75 (up 18%). 

Along the same vein, the XOM 2014 $65 puts at $5, now $4.05 (up 19%) were sold to pay for the SU 2014 $25/37 bull call spread for $6 for net $1 on the spread.  The bull call spread is still $6 but that's net $1.95 now – up 95% on the combo.  Our other bullish play on oil was the USO June $40/46 bull call spread at $2, selling he SCO Oct $26 puts for $3 for a net $1 credit.  The USO spread has fallen to $1.40 but the short SCO puts dropped to $1.65 a net gain of .75 – up a quick 75% on a fairly neutral oil play, which was BRILLIANT as it covered many, many of our aggressive oil shorts over the month that went VERY well

Our other trade ideas from the morning post (and the logic and strategies are detailed in the post):  

  • AA 2014 $10 puts sold for $2, still $2 – even
  • X at $28.49, selling Jan $25 calls for $8.50 and 2014 $20 puts for $2.95 for net $17.04/18.52 


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AT&T Call Volume Jumps As New Trading Year Begins

Today’s tickers: T, PAYX, LXK & THRX

T - AT&T Inc. – A large bullish position initiated in AT&T call options this morning indicates at least one strategist expects shares in the wireless provider to near their highest of the past 52 weeks. The stock rose 0.85% to $30.49 in the first half of the first trading session of 2012. Options volume on AT&T is heaviest at the Feb. $31 strike, where more than 26,000 call options changed hands against open interest of 6,174 contracts. The bulk of the volume was purchased in one block of roughly 20,400 calls at a premium of $0.26 each. The call buyer may profit at expiration next month in the event that shares in AT&T rally another 2.5% to surpass the breakeven price of $31.26. The wireless provider is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on January 26.

PAYX - Paychex, Inc. – A burst of call and put activity on Paychex in the first hour of trade in the New Year suggests the price of the underlying is likely to make big moves ahead of February expiration. Shares in the provider of employee benefits outsourcing solutions to small and medium sized businesses rose 1.65% to stand at $30.61 as of 11:40 AM ET. Likely the work of one investor, it appears both calls and puts were purchased on Paychex this morning in anticipation of increased volatility in the share price. It looks like the trader purchased roughly 4,000 calls at the Feb. $31 strike for an average premium of $0.62 each, and purchased around 2,650 in-the-money puts at the same strike at a premium of $1.20 apiece. The transactions were not marked as a spread or straddle, but the implications of each position are similar to those of a long straddle. The long calls…
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Monday Madness – G20 FinMins Set Two Week Deadline

Two weeks!  

European leaders have two weeks to settle differences and flesh out a strategy to terminate their sovereign debt crisis as global finance chiefs warn failure to do so would endanger the world economy.  “The risk of a recession would be increased dramatically were the Europeans to fail to accomplish goals that they’ve set for themselves,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said after the G-20 meeting on Saturday.

The Brussels meeting “has the potential to turn into a positive historic moment,” Joachim Fels, London-based chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. “But it could also easily turn into a negative catalyst.”

Europe’s plan, which has still to be made public, includes writing down Greek bonds by as much as 50 percent, establishing a backstop for banks and magnifying the strength of the 440 billion-euro ($611 billion) temporary rescue fund known as the European Financial Stability Facility.  “The plan has the right elements,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in Paris. “They clearly have more work to do on the strategy and the details.” 

The G-20 officials — who met to prepare for a Nov. 3-4 gathering of leaders in Cannes, France (and we're fondly remembering London's 2009 meeting with the graphic on the right) — said in a statement that the world economy faces “heightened tensions and significant downside risks.” European authorities must “decisively address the current challenges through a comprehensive plan.

The policy makers held out the possibility of rewarding European action with more aid from the International Monetary Fund, while splitting over whether the Washington-based lender’s $390 billion war chest needs topping up.  Europe’s latest strategy hinges on putting Greece, whose government forecasts its debt to reach 172 percent of gross domestic product in 2012, on a sustainable path. Austerity has plunged the country deeper into recession and provoked civil unrest that threatens political stability.

My reaction to this in Member Chat this Morning was to call for shorting the jacked up Dow Futures (/YM) at 11,600, saying:  

Speaking of the illusion of power – yet another G20 meeting ends with yet another plan to have a plan but this time, for some insane reason, they only gave


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Phil's Favorites

Here's how airplane crash investigations work, according to an aviation safety expert

  Here's how airplane crash investigations work, according to an aviation safety expert

Courtesy of Daniel Kwasi Adjekum, University of North Dakota

The fatal crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 has resulted in the worldwide grounding of Boeing 737 Max aircraft. Investigators are probing the crash and ...



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Zero Hedge

Nomura: "Event Risk" Has Become A Joke

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For a brief period yesterday, it seemed the stock rally may stall just as the market settled into its comfortable, pre-FOMC melt up. To be sure, there were numerous catalysts to fade the current 5 month high with Nomura listing 6 reasons why stocks may fade as we enter the "pullback window." Traders were additionally spooked by yesterday’s "spot up, VIX up, VVIX up" combo, which as Charlie McElligott notes, "always raises an eyebrow from market bystanders" although in retrospe...



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ValueWalk

When Preserving Capital Is Wiser Than Growing It

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

When it comes to investment performance, slow and steady generally wins the race when stretched out over long-term horizons. Even though this practice may not seem glamorous, one hedge fund explained in its year-end letter for 2018 that preserving capital is a wise move during times of extreme volatility.

NjoyHarmony / PixabayMaverick preserves capital

In his 2018 letter to investors, Maverick Managing Partner Lee Ainslie said when they wrote their first letter more than 25 years ago, they stated that the fund’s objective was to &...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financials About To Let Down The Bull Market Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

If the saying So Goes The Banks, So Goes The Broad Market is true, what message are we receiving when financials have lagged the broad market for over a year?

This 2-pack looks at the XLF/SPX and EUFN/XLF ratios over the past couple of years.

The XLF/SPX ratio has created a series of lower highs for the past 12-months after peaking at (1). The EUFN/XLF ratio has created a series of lower highs for the past 18-months after peaking at (2). These falling trends look to be sending a negative divergence message to the broad markets if one believes that banks are important for bull markets.

Each ratio is near falling resistance at ...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Climb Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade. The Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day policy meeting today. Data on factory orders for January will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 103 points to 26,072.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 11 points to 2,852.00. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index rose 27 points to 7,388.75.

...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Mar 17, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

A very good week for market bulls as the prior week’s selling was all reversed.  Last week we asked how many times can we rally on the same Federal Reserve juice.  It seems indefinitely.  Jerome Powell went on ’60 Minutes’ and talked dovish – that sparked a big rally Monday and it continued all week.  The only down day all week was Thursday when the progress on the U.S. – China trade deal seemed to hit a delay.

A meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be delayed until at least April, Bloomberg News reported, indicating that a bilateral trade deal will n...



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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

 

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

Grejak/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alistair Milne, Loughborough University

Facebook is reportedly preparing to launch its own version of Bitcoin, for use in its messaging applications, WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram. Could this “Facecoin” be the long-awaited breakthrough by a global technology giant into the lucrative market for retail financial services? Or will...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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