Posts Tagged ‘target’

Moody’s Commercial Real Estate Scorecard Accelerates To Downside

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report!   

Moody’s Commercial Real Estate Scorecard Accelerates To Downside

commercial real estateCourtesy of Mish

The commercial real estate bust is now in full swing as Moody’s Commercial Real Estate Scorecard Accelerates To Downside

The downward spiral in commercial real estate market fundamentals has accelerated as the recession persists, Moody’s Investors Service says in its latest Red-Yellow-Green study.

For the first time in six years, none of the seven property types tracked by Moody’s has a "green" or strong score, while four of the property types are at levels of weakness unmatched in the almost 10-year history of the study. The two hotel sectors--full service and limited service--continued to post lowest possible scores of 0 during the first quarter, while the industrial sector recorded its all-time worst score as it fell into red territory.

Multifamily deteriorated enough to fall from green into yellow, where it joins the retail and the central business district office sectors. Moody’s says that while supply pipelines do continue to dry up across all property types, forecasted demand has similarly dropped, so that demand projections for six of the seven property types worsened during the quarter. In addition, vacancy rates have maintained a steadily increasing trend among all property types (except hotels where they are not measured), and the poor absorption expectations do little to assuage the tide of availability.

Among hotels, year-over-year RevPAR fell below the record lows reached the previous quarter and now lag the baseline measure by levels never seen before. Moody’s Red-Yellow-Green report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 — 100 as green. The new second quarter study reflects data from the first quarter of 2009.

Does anyone even remember the potty theories that the mortgage crisis would be limited to subprime and how commercial real estate was going to be the savior when residential real estate sank?

Please consider Economic Ripple Effect vs. Housing Containment Theory for one such debate less than two years ago. It seems like ages.

Flash forward to today. As long as businesses are not expanding there is no driver for jobs. And here’s a hint: Businesses are not expanding to any significant degree because overcapacity


continue reading


Tags: , , ,




Channel Checkers Experiment

Trading Experiment with Jason at Channel Checkers  

Channel Checkers’ research indicated that Target is going to have a good quarter, while Game Stop is not.  Is there a way to devise option strategies to benefit from this research?  Here’s Channel Checkers research with option suggestions by Phil.  Let’s see how it works. 

May 20th Update:  Target trade would have been successful, we’ll evaluate the GameStop trade tomorrow after their earnings.

Target

Business Strong in 1H for Target.  Positive outlook.
Ticker: TGT
Questions We Asked:
1.Do you think the weak housing market and weak economy are hurting business at your location?
2.What is the top selling brand of women’s clothing right now?
3.How is business at you store currently?
4.Do you have excess inventory of any particular product or brand of product that will go on sale or discount soon?

  • 53% of respondents stated that the weak housing market or the weak economy overall was hurting business at their store location. 47% said these macro factors were not affecting sales at their store location.
  • Mossimo was the top selling women’s brand according to 37% of respondents. 30% said it was Merona and 7% said Isaac Misrahi was the top women’s brand.
  • Another surprise in this survey was that 50% of respondents reported business as “above average” at their store location while another 27% said business was “very strong”. 20% reported business “Average” and 7% reported business as “Below Average”.
  • 44% of respondents did confirm there was excess inventory of some items like digital cameras and women’s tops while 66% said there was not any excess inventory at their store location.

Conclusion of Channel Check:  Retail appears to be making a come back in 1H 2009 thus far. Perceptions of business levels by store representatives is solidly positive. Inventories are not “lean” but are not excessive either. We suspect Target may show solid top line results without a large impact from discounting tied to excess inventories.

Catalyst for stock movement:
TGT Reports Earnings on 5/20/09 Before the Market Open

 
Example:  TGT --  Let’s say we did this trade and see how it comes out tomorrow morning:  "Jan $41 calls are $5.40 and should make over 20% if TGT has good earnings and breaks over $44.  As they are calls, the risk is no more than $5.40…
continue reading


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Party Like It's 1992?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Last week, Mark Hulbert warned of an indicator that hasn’t been this inflated since the “Dot.com” bubble. To wit:

“It’s been more than 25 years since the stock market’s long-term trailing return was as low as it is today. Since the top of the internet bubble in March 2000, the S&P 500 has produced a...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

China for the Trade Win?

 

China for the Trade Win?

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

With all the trade war talk, we all ask the obvious question: Who will win? President Trump says the US will win. Chinese business leaders say no, we will win. Free-traders on both sides say no one will win. Few stop to ask, “What does a ‘win’ look like?”

This makes discussion difficult. People are chasing after a condition they can’t even define. Victory will remain elusive until they know what they want. Regardless, you can score me on the “no one wins” side. I believe, and I think a lot of evidence proves, that free trade between nations is the best way to maximize long-run prosperity for ever...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

The U.S. trade deficit with China is a dangerous scorecard as the mainland remains an unlikely source of U.S. profits

By Joe Quinlan. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the United States and China at loggerheads over trade, investors should be aware of the many economic ties binding the two countries. Bank of America, U.S. Trust has released a new report that explores some of the finer points of U.S.-Sino relations and the strategic, but little understood, competitive advantages for corporate America.

The seven factors described below underscore the dynamism and competitiveness of U.S. companies and may help explain the resilience of U.S. large cap stocks despite ratcheting trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

U.S.-China Checklist: Understanding Some...

more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Bitcoin Update - Bullish pressure present

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

If Venezuela or Argentina conducted business in bitcoin then their savings and wealth would be a lot better off. Yes Bitcoin and Litecoin have been volatile over the last few years,  but nothing like Bolivar (Venezuela) or the Peso (Argentina). 

You say they could use the US dollar, yes maybe so, but those who use the US dollar have to the yield to the US Federal Reserve where as bitcoin is decentralized and those who use it yield to no one.

In the next 12 to 18 months the lightning network and atomic swaps logic will forge Bitcoin and Litecoin together as the go to crypto decentralized currency. Of course massive risk, so the investor should be warned you can lose all your funds.  

Time to review the demand ...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

more from Our Members

Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper breaking out after large decline, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Doc Copper over the past few months has been hit hard, as sellers drove it down nearly 25%.

This decline brought it to the price point (2), where four different support lines came into play, which looks like a support cluster. As the decline was taking place, momentum was hitting oversold levels.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– This week Doc Copper is experiencing its strongest rally this year, as it breaks above steep falling resistance.

Should Doc Copper contin...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Cantor Fitzgerald's 7 Buys For 7 Biotechs

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Cantor Fitzgerald has high hopes for patients with rare and orphan diseases. 

“We believe that biotech has entered a golden age of innovation and productivity across many therapeutic areas,” the firm said in a Friday note. Cantor expanded its portfolio with seven new neuro-innovator and platform-enabled therapeutics companies.

The ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>