Posts Tagged ‘target’

Moody’s Commercial Real Estate Scorecard Accelerates To Downside

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Moody’s Commercial Real Estate Scorecard Accelerates To Downside

commercial real estateCourtesy of Mish

The commercial real estate bust is now in full swing as Moody’s Commercial Real Estate Scorecard Accelerates To Downside

The downward spiral in commercial real estate market fundamentals has accelerated as the recession persists, Moody’s Investors Service says in its latest Red-Yellow-Green study.

For the first time in six years, none of the seven property types tracked by Moody’s has a "green" or strong score, while four of the property types are at levels of weakness unmatched in the almost 10-year history of the study. The two hotel sectors--full service and limited service--continued to post lowest possible scores of 0 during the first quarter, while the industrial sector recorded its all-time worst score as it fell into red territory.

Multifamily deteriorated enough to fall from green into yellow, where it joins the retail and the central business district office sectors. Moody’s says that while supply pipelines do continue to dry up across all property types, forecasted demand has similarly dropped, so that demand projections for six of the seven property types worsened during the quarter. In addition, vacancy rates have maintained a steadily increasing trend among all property types (except hotels where they are not measured), and the poor absorption expectations do little to assuage the tide of availability.

Among hotels, year-over-year RevPAR fell below the record lows reached the previous quarter and now lag the baseline measure by levels never seen before. Moody’s Red-Yellow-Green report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 — 100 as green. The new second quarter study reflects data from the first quarter of 2009.

Does anyone even remember the potty theories that the mortgage crisis would be limited to subprime and how commercial real estate was going to be the savior when residential real estate sank?

Please consider Economic Ripple Effect vs. Housing Containment Theory for one such debate less than two years ago. It seems like ages.

Flash forward to today. As long as businesses are not expanding there is no driver for jobs. And here’s a hint: Businesses are not expanding to any significant degree because overcapacity


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Channel Checkers Experiment

Trading Experiment with Jason at Channel Checkers  

Channel Checkers’ research indicated that Target is going to have a good quarter, while Game Stop is not.  Is there a way to devise option strategies to benefit from this research?  Here’s Channel Checkers research with option suggestions by Phil.  Let’s see how it works. 

May 20th Update:  Target trade would have been successful, we’ll evaluate the GameStop trade tomorrow after their earnings.

Target

Business Strong in 1H for Target.  Positive outlook.
Ticker: TGT
Questions We Asked:
1.Do you think the weak housing market and weak economy are hurting business at your location?
2.What is the top selling brand of women’s clothing right now?
3.How is business at you store currently?
4.Do you have excess inventory of any particular product or brand of product that will go on sale or discount soon?

  • 53% of respondents stated that the weak housing market or the weak economy overall was hurting business at their store location. 47% said these macro factors were not affecting sales at their store location.
  • Mossimo was the top selling women’s brand according to 37% of respondents. 30% said it was Merona and 7% said Isaac Misrahi was the top women’s brand.
  • Another surprise in this survey was that 50% of respondents reported business as “above average” at their store location while another 27% said business was “very strong”. 20% reported business “Average” and 7% reported business as “Below Average”.
  • 44% of respondents did confirm there was excess inventory of some items like digital cameras and women’s tops while 66% said there was not any excess inventory at their store location.

Conclusion of Channel Check:  Retail appears to be making a come back in 1H 2009 thus far. Perceptions of business levels by store representatives is solidly positive. Inventories are not “lean” but are not excessive either. We suspect Target may show solid top line results without a large impact from discounting tied to excess inventories.

Catalyst for stock movement:
TGT Reports Earnings on 5/20/09 Before the Market Open

 
Example:  TGT --  Let’s say we did this trade and see how it comes out tomorrow morning:  "Jan $41 calls are $5.40 and should make over 20% if TGT has good earnings and breaks over $44.  As they are calls, the risk is no more than $5.40…
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Phil's Favorites

How TikTok got caught in the crosshairs of US-China politics

 

How TikTok got caught in the crosshairs of US-China politics

Vowing to ban TikTok was a power play by the US president. Evan El-Amin / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Kerry Brown, King's College London

Donald Trump’s threat to ban TikTok, a video sharing app owned by Beijing-based ByteDance, on August 1 is only the latest in a series of clashes between the US and China. With each of these events – from the US ban on telecoms company Huawei to the US response to events in Hong Kong and the co...



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Zero Hedge

UConn Becomes First Major College In The US To Cancel 2020 Football Season

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

UConn's 2020 football season will forever remain the year that could have been.

The Connecticut flagship state university set a nationwide precedent on Wednesday when its athletic department announced that it would cancel its upcoming football season over fears tied to the coronavirus pandemic.

...



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The Technical Traders

Walk Through the Gold and Silver Charts to See What to Expect

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Check out the analysis of this morning’s Gold and Silver charts by our own Chris Vermeulen, Chief Market Strategist and Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com, to see what is in store for precious metals. Make sure you check out our Gold and Silver article from August 4th, 2020 for additional context behind our predictions and rationale for continued price appreciation.

Learn more about our ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

 

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

Health care workers use a nasal swab to test a person for COVID-19 in Pembroke Park, Florida. Joe Raedle / Getty Images News

Courtesy of Melissa Hawkins, American University

Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions recently published a study which estimated that the true number of people infected by COVID-19 could be six to 24 times high...



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ValueWalk

Beyond Meat Has Not Disclosed Its Environmental Effects

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

A recent S&P Global Market Intelligence Trucost analysis found that Beyond Meat Inc., the maker of plant-based meat alternatives, has not disclosed the full extent of its environmental impacts. This includes the amount of greenhouse gases emitted or the volume of water discharged.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Beyond Meat Has "0" Disclosure Of Environmental Impacts

Key insights from the analysis include:

  • Beyond Meat’s weighted environmental disclosure ratio, which shows what percentage of its environmental impacts it discloses...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the US Dollar Nearing Bottom? Or Is It Different This Time?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The U.S. Dollar ran into a perfect storm in 2020: a pandemic (Coronavirus), an easy Federal Reserve, and trillions of dollars in government stimulus.

The result has been a steep decline in the greenback.

Looking at today’s chart, however, suggests that the US Dollar may be nearing a bottom. That is if recent history proves true.

The Dollar is testing its 9-year bullish up-trend support at (1) and US Dollar bulls are disappearing. In fact, investors are the least bullish the US Dollars (20% bulls) since 2011 at (2). Notice that each ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

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Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



Date Found: Monday, 30 March 2020, 05:21:45 PM

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Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


...

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Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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