Posts Tagged ‘tax revenue’

How You’re Going to Get Cornholed Thanks To Obama

How You’re Going to Get Cornholed Thanks To Obama

Courtesy of Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker

The economy, that is.

This is a must-read from Chris Whalen.  He’s spot-on, and I will reprint only the conclusions – read through for the why, what and how.

  • The U.S. banking industry entering a new period of crisis where operating costs are rising dramatically due to foreclosures and loan repurchase expenses. We are less than ¼ of the way through foreclosures. The issue is recognizing existing losses ??not if a loss occurred.

  • Failure by the Bush/Obama to restructure the largest banks during 2008?2009 period only means that this process is going to occur over next three to five years – whether we like it or not. Lower growth, employment are the cost of this lack of courage and vision.

  • The largest U.S. banks remain insolvent and must continue to shrink until they are either restructured or the subsidies flowing from the Fed, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac cover hidden losses. The latter course condemns Americans to years of economic malaise and further job losses.

Yep.

The bottom line folks is that the fraud – massive and outrageous concealment of losses, intentionally making bad loans in the mid-2000s (now admitted to under oath by Citibank’s chief underwriter, among others) and the selling of that paper everywhere and anywhere that the banks could manage, along with holding much of it themselves, condemns us.

The opportunity to take these banks into receivership in 2007 existed.  It existed in 2008 too.  I counseled on doing exactly this during those years. 

Instead, both Bush and Obama decided to protect those who had committed these offenses.  First by attempting to bail them out, and then when it became obvious that $700 billion of taxpayer money was literally trying to **** on a forest fire to put it out they decided instead to paper it over by extorting FASB so the losses could be swept under the carpet instead of recognized.

The problem is that unlike long-run spending problems like Social Security and Medicare, which will detonate in ten year or more, this is a current account cash-flow problem and the deterioration continues month-by-month as the payments are not made.  It’s like a barrel of dead fish.  The next morning it starts to stink.  Every day it stinks worse.  Putting a…
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Oregon Tax Revenue from Measure 66 is 50% Short of Predictions; Oregon Grants Unions 4.75% Pay Hike

Oregon Tax Revenue from Measure 66 is 50% Short of Predictions; Oregon Grants Unions 4.75% Pay Hike

Courtesy of Mish 

From the dysfunctional state of Oregon comes news that Measure 66fell about 50% short of its revenue predictions. Balance that with 4.75% pay hikes and it adds up with a continuing refusal by Oregon to address its problems.

Oregon Grants Unions 4.75% Pay Hike

5 percent pay increase for Oregon state union employees begins Wednesday

A step pay increase of nearly 5 percent for Oregon state workers represented by unions goes into effect Wednesday. The 4.75 percent increase will cost the state as much as $16 million through the end of the two-year budget period.

Measure 66 Falls Short

Oregon tax revenues from Measure 66 coming up short of predictions

Early indicators suggest the state won’t receive nearly as much as officials expected from a tax increase on wealthy Oregonians — raising questions of whether January’s bitterly fought election was worth it.

The latest numbers show Measure 66, which set higher tax rates on households making more than $250,000 a year, and on individual filers making half that, has brought in about $70 million in additional collections to date.

"We’re thinking we’re right around half of what we expected about this time," said Paul Warner, head of the Legislative Revenue Office.

Here’s the deal. Oregon raised taxes for the benefit of unions and now they have to raise taxes again because the state only got half as much revenue from the tax hike as expected. When does the madness stop?

I have written about Oregon a lot recently.

Dysfunctional Oregon

August 22, 2010: Dysfunctional Oregon

Sight unseen, I am willing to state that Oregon should get rid of all 64 state boards, no matter what they are supposed to do. Sight seen, it’s time Oregonian voters relegate Gov. Ted Kulongoski to the ash heap of history.

Overoptimism Oregon Style

August 18, 2010: Oregon Wins Blue Ribbon for Unfounded Optimism; Everything "Weaker than Expected"

In July of 2009 state revenue projections were $222.8 million to the plus side. Now just one year later, smack in the midst of a "recovery", a $577.2 million June 2010 deficit is too optimistic by as much as another $500 million.

Congratulations of sorts go to Oregon for winning the blue ribbon for unfounded optimism.

Oregon has already cut state spending by


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The Challenge of Closing Tax Loopholes For Billionaires

"Call me old fashioned but I just think it’s wrong that a single hedge fund manager earns a billion dollars, when a billion dollars would pay the salaries of about 20,000 teachers." Guess I’m old fashioned too. I find the bonuses and tax evading practices of the ultra-weathy financiers even more outrageous than Mish’s Union examples. If free markets are a contradiction of terms – while we’re headed in the opposite direction at lightening speed – maybe we could at least strive for fairer markets? And good luck with that given we need the participation of our corrupted, banker and lobbyist-owned politicians. – Ilene 

The Challenge of Closing Tax Loopholes For Billionaires

Income Tax: John Bull

Courtesy of Robert Reich

Who could be opposed to closing a tax loophole that allows hedge-fund and private equity managers to treat their earnings as capital gains – and pay a rate of only 15 percent rather than the 35 percent applied to ordinary income?

Answer: Some of the nation’s most prominent and wealthiest private asset managers, such as Paul Allen and Henry Kravis, who, along with hordes of lobbyists, are determined to keep the loophole wide open. 
 
The House has already tried three times to close it only to have the Senate cave in because of campaign donations from these and other financiers who benefit from it.
 
But the measure will be brought up again in the next few weeks, and this time the result could be different. Few senators want to be overtly seen as favoring Wall Street. And tax revenues are needed to help pay for extensions of popular tax cuts, such as the college tax credit that reduces college costs for tens of thousands of poor and middle class families. Closing this particular loophole would net some $20 billion. 
 
It’s not as if these investment fund managers are worth a $20 billion subsidy. Nonetheless they argue that if they have to pay at the normal rate they’ll be discouraged from investing in innovative companies and startups. But if such investments are worthwhile they shouldn’t need to be subsidized. Besides, in the years leading up to the crash of 2008, hedge-fund and private equity fund managers weren’t exactly models of public service. Many speculated in ways that destabilized the whole financial system.

Nor…
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Federal Tax Revenues Suffer Biggest Drop Since Great Depression

Federal Tax Revenues Suffer Biggest Drop Since Great Depression

Courtesy of Mish

Recession? What recession? This is a depression. No it’s not the great depression, but this is no ordinary recession as measured by housing, jobs, the stock market, the CPI, auto sales, and now federal tax revenues.

Inquiring minds note Federal Tax Revenues Plummet Most Since 1932.

The recession is starving the government of tax revenue, just as the president and Congress are piling a major expansion of health care and other programs on the nation’s plate and struggling to find money to pay the tab.

The numbers could hardly be more stark: Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18 percent this year, the biggest single-year decline since the Great Depression, while the federal deficit balloons to a record $1.8 trillion.

Other figures in an Associated Press analysis underscore the recession’s impact: Individual income tax receipts are down 22 percent from a year ago. Corporate income taxes are down 57 percent. Social Security tax receipts could drop for only the second time since 1940, and Medicare taxes are on pace to drop for only the third time ever.

The last time the government’s revenues were this bleak, the year was 1932 in the midst of the Depression.

In May the government’s best estimate was that Social Security would start to pay out more money than it receives in taxes in 2016, and that the fund would be depleted in 2037 unless changes are enacted.

Some experts think the sour economy has made those numbers outdated.

"You could easily move that number up three or four years, then you’re talking about 2013, and that’s not very far off," said Kent Smetters, associate professor of insurance and risk management at the University of Pennsylvania.

The government’s projections included best and worst-case scenarios. Under the worst, Social Security would start to pay out more money than it received in taxes in 2013, and the fund would be depleted in 2029.

The fund’s trustees are still confident the solvency dates are within the range of the worst-case scenario, said Jason Fichtner, the Social Security Administration’s acting deputy commissioner.

"We’re not outside our boundaries yet," Fichtner said. "As the recovery comes, we’ll see how that plays out."

President Barack Obama has said he wants to tackle Social Security next year, after he clears an already crowded


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Phil's Favorites

The fossil fuel era is coming to an end, but the lawsuits are just beginning

 

The fossil fuel era is coming to an end, but the lawsuits are just beginning

A coal mine near the mountains in Alberta. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Kyla Tienhaara, Queen's University, Ontario

“Coal is dead.”

These are not the words of a Greenpeace activist or left-wing politician, but of Jim Barry, the global head of the infrastructure investment group at Blackrock — the world’s largest asset manager. Barry made this statement in 2017, but ...



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Zero Hedge

As Markets Brace For Recession, Illinois Is Nation's Least Prepared

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Ted Dabrowski of WirePoints

Wall Street’s best predictor of a recession has reared its ugly head and Illinois is nowhere near ready for a slowdown. In fact, Illinois is the nation’s least-prepared state for an economic downturn. When that recession finally comes, Illinoisans should expect to get hit hard.

The pre...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Connect Series Webinar December 2018

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We cover dominating patterns in major global Indices, sectors, commodities and the metals markets.  We produce chart pattern analysis and empower people to improve entry and exit points.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.

...

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Biotech

China's win-at-all-costs approach suggests it will follow its own dangerous path in biomedicine

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

China's win-at-all-costs approach suggests it will follow its own dangerous path in biomedicine

Megacity Shenzhen, as seen from Hong Kong, is a center for Chinese finance and tech. AP Photo/Kin Cheung

Courtesy of Hallam Stevens, Nanyang Technological University

The world was shocked by ...



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Insider Scoop

Wells Fargo Is Bullish On Shopify

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SHOP Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For December 18, 2018 41 Biggest Movers From Friday ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 16, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

A significant selloff Friday had bears continuing to enjoy December and calls for the bulls for the Federal Reserve to save them.  It’s been a very long time since bears have had the upper hand for such an extended period.  Volatility continues to be very high and the charts continue to say “remain in safety”.  The Russell 2000 – the laggard of 2018 – broke a yearly low set in February and the S&P 500 broke October lows to create a “lower low”.

Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist with Voya Investment Management, said that disappointing economic data out of China was the biggest driver of Friday’s losses. “The Chinese data was a dirt sandwich, not because it showed deceleration in the Chinese economy, but because it’s showing...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto Bull Tom Lee: Bitcoin's 'Fair Value' Closer To $15,000, But He's Sick Of People Asking About It

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Listening to the crypto bulls of yesteryear continue to defend their case for new new all-time highs, despite a growing mountain of evidence to suggest that last year's rally was spurred by the blind greed of gullible marginal buyers (not to mention outright manipulation), one can't help but feel a twinge of pity for Mike Novogratz and Wall Street's original crypto uber-bull, Fundstrat's Tom Lee.

Lee achieved rock star status thanks to ...



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Members' Corner

Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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