Posts Tagged ‘tax’

To DC: Waking Up Yet?

To DC: Waking Up Yet?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

toned close-up of an alarm clock

Let’s talk about the economy - and the lack of jobs.

In the week ending July 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 479,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 460,000. The 4-week moving average was 458,500, an increase of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 453,250.

Uh huh. Note that the previous week was revised (again), but even so, the claims number is creeping ever-closer to the 500,000 level that marks "depressed", and further and further away from the 300,000 level that marks "reasonably decent conditions."

Why?

I’ll tell you why.

We have refused to address of the structural problems in the economy.  We have instead allowed our elected idiots to paper over those problems, and they have done so.

So Wall Street had a nice rally off the 666 lows to just over 1200.  A rally that is dissipating and sell-offs are now coming with increasing frequency and violence.

Just as they did in the early part of, and the summer of, 2008.

Everyone wants The Fed to come save the day.  It can’t.

Policy rates are at zero.

"Quantitative easing" doesn’t solve anything, as all you’re doing is debasing the currency, which in turn makes everything more expensive (or depresses wages – same outcome) and that in turn means that purchasing power decreases, which means that forward economic activity decreases as well.

It is exactly identical to giving a speed freak more meth.  Each dose produces not improvement, but pain avoidance.  But the cost of each dose is that the addict’s teeth become more rotted and their eyes more sunken.  The systemic damage accumulates with each bout of abuse.

[As an aside, here's Richard Metzger interviewing Mick Farren on his newest book: Speed-Speed-Speedfreak: A Fast History of Amphetamine - Ilene]

While the addict seems to feel somewhat better for a short while with each dose he takes, he is in fact being systemically poisoned.  Eventually, bereft of teeth and with his body deprived of the ability to process nutrition, the addict will die irrespective of how much more drug he or she consumes.

The only solution for an addict caught in this spiral is to stop and take the pain of detoxification.  The pain is considerable – even excruciating.  Indeed, it…
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The Perversity Of Bank-Driven Policy Response

The Perversity Of Bank-Driven Policy Response

Courtesy of Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker 

If you’re wondering why the big banks have "captured" the political environment in every nation of the world, you need only look at the Goldman results through a somewhat-different lens.

See, it wasn’t just Goldman - it was also Bank of America, Citibank and JP Morgan who scored "perfect quarters."

Aliens selling spaceship in outer space

Now if Goldman’s record was predicated on the outcome of a game of chance set of odds and had an 8.67 x 10-19 probability of occurring, for four of these institutions to do so would be that to the 4th power, or something approaching 5.65 x 10-73.

As pointed out in the forum by Tsberts, there are fewer than this many particles (atoms, etc) in the known universe.

Now it is certainly true that trading activities are not a pure game of chance, and that most of the trading profits are generated from "market making" (that is, earning a spread.)

But that makes the performance even more outrageous, because these "market making" activities are claimed to be something that provides net benefit to market participants and thus the economy as a whole.

That claim looks awfully hard to sustain when the book-maker never loses – not even once on a daily aggregate basis.

Indeed, this puts into stark relief the nature of "banking" these days in the Wall Street context, which is increasingly nothing more than an activity intended and executed to skim off profits for the banksters at the expense of literally everyone else in the economy.

They seem to be doing a good job of it too, if these results are any indication.

Here’s the problem with this, assuming you’re not a bank executive:…
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Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?

Is Japan turning into Zimbabwe?  And if you see green shoots after this one, let me know what you’re drinking! 

Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?

$5 trillion shortfall, need a drinkCourtesy of John Mauldin

This Is Outrageous
The Land of the Setting Sun
Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?

There is no doubt that the US is in financial trouble. Those talking of a strong recovery are just not dealing with reality. But the US is in better shape than a lot of countries. This week, we begin by looking at Japan. I have written for years about how large their debt-to-GDP ratio is, yet they keep on issuing more debt and seemingly getting away with it. But now, several factors are conspiring to create real problems for the Land of the Rising Sun. They may soon run into a very serious-sized wall. And it is not just Japan. Where will the world find $5 trillion to finance government debt? We look at some very worrisome graphs. Those in the US who think that what happens in the rest of the world doesn’t matter just don’t get it. There is a lot to cover in what will be a very interesting letter. I suggest removing sharp objects or pouring yourself a nice adult beverage.

This Is Outrageous

But first, I want to direct the attention of those in the US finance industry to a white paper written by Themis Trading, called "Toxic Equity Trading Order Flow on Wall Street." Basically, they outline why volume and volatility have jumped so much since 2007; and it’s not due to the credit crisis. They estimate that 70% of the volume in today’s markets is from high-frequency program trading. They outline how large brokers and funds can buy and sell a stock for the same price and still make 0.5 cents. Do that a million times a day and the money adds up. Or maybe do it 8 billion times. It requires powerful computers, complicity of the exchanges (because the exchanges get paid a lot), and highly proximate computer connections. Literally, the need for speed is so important that to play this game you have to have your servers physically at the exchange. Across the river in New Jersey is too slow. Forget Texas or California. This is a game played out in microseconds.

The retail world doesn’t get…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Interest Rates Peaking? Watch The Copper/Gold Ratio!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

If you spend time researching market relationships you can better understand money flows, rotation, and reasons why money flows rotate. This can be very helpful in identifying trend changes as well.

Today, we’ll look at the relationship between 10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield (INDEXCBOE: TNX) and the ratio of Copper (NYSEARCA: JJC) to Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Interest Rates Peaking?

Looking at the chart below, we can see that treasury yields and the Copper/Gold ratio tend to peak and bottom together – this has occurred several times over the past 5 years.

Currently, the 10 Year Yield is forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern (in red) at the same time that the Copper/Gold ratio is testing important support...



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Phil's Favorites

What are rare earths, crucial elements in modern technology? 4 questions answered

 

What are rare earths, crucial elements in modern technology? 4 questions answered

A handful of europium. Alchemist-hp, CC BY-SA

Courtesy of Stanley Mertzman, Franklin & Marshall College

Most Americans use rare earth elements every day – without knowing it, or knowing anything about what they do. That could change, as these unusual materials are becoming a focal point in the escalating trade war between the U.S...



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Zero Hedge

The 1997 Asia Crisis: "We Were There"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nicholas Colas via DataTrekResearch.com,

Having covered cyclical industries (primarily autos, in my case) since the early 1990s, I vividly remember every financial crisis of the last 30 years because “my” stocks always get destroyed in the process. Based on that experience I can tell you every such event feels unique and shocking as you transit through them. To borrow from Tolstoy, every happy market is the same, but every crisis market is different in its own way.

...



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ValueWalk

Senator Elizabeth Warren Speaks with Jim Cramer [TRANSCRIPT]

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Senator Elizabeth Warren and CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer” (M-F 6-7PM) today, Wednesday, August 15th. The following is a link to video of the interview on CNBC.com: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/08/15/sen-elizabeth-warren-trade-deals-help-companies-not-workers.html.

...



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Insider Scoop

Vertical Group Turns More Bearish On Tesla, Doesn't Expect Company To Go Private

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related TSLA Upcoming Earnings: Tech Giant Nvidia Unveils New GPUs Ahead Of Q2 Results The Downfall Of Elon Musk ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Update - 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Demand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts
 


 

Main Chart in video



 

Sure fundamentals...



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Biotech

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety - and reports of 'genome vandalism'

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety – and reports of 'genome vandalism'

A standee of the movie ‘Rampage’ at a theater in Bangkok, Thailand. Scientists in the film used CRISPR to create a monster. By Sarunyu L/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jianhua Luo, University of Pittsburgh

A movie just recently released called “Rampage” features Dwayne “The Rock” Jo...



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Digital Currencies

What is a blockchain token?

 

What is a blockchain token?

What’s this digital token good for, anyway? knipsdesign/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

People are just becoming acquainted with the idea of digital money in the form of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, where transactions are recorded on a secure distributed database called a blockchain. And now along comes a new concept: the blockchain-based token, which I’ve been following as a blockchain researcher a...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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