Posts Tagged ‘taxing’

Kotlikoff: The IMF Says That the US Is Bankrupt, and They’re Right

Kotlikoff: The IMF Says That the US Is Bankrupt, and They’re Right

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

I have not read it yet, but Kotlikoff has a book out called "Jimmy Stewart Is Dead" which was reviewed in April by Craig Heimark at Naked Capitalism.

I have not followed Kotlikoff closely and will attempt to read some of his more serious material in the near future. I did listen to a long discussion on Bloomberg television this afternoon, and he made some real sense to me, although he did not penetrate the miasma of corporate sloganeering that represents the minds of the anchors. They seem to lean to the ‘cut everything that is not a subsidy to or a cashflow owned by the oligarchy’ school of economic reform. And he takes that sort of supply side hoaxing to task, and harshly.

I have to take a closer look at his analysis of Social Security, which is highlighted in this Bloomberg piece (quelle surprise). But his comments on the need for reform in the financial system was point on.

He disagrees with both the supply siders and the demand siders, favoring a systemic overhaul and reform, and so my interest in what he says is obvious.

Bloomberg
U.S. Is Bankrupt and We Don’t Even Know

By Laurence Kotlikoff
Aug 10, 2010

Let’s get real. The U.S. is bankrupt. Neither spending more nor taxing less will help the country pay its bills.

What it can and must do is radically simplify its tax, health-care, retirement and financial systems, each of which is a complete mess. But this is the good news. It means they can each be redesigned to achieve their legitimate purposes at much lower cost and, in the process, revitalize the economy.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund released its annual review of U.S. economic policy. Its summary contained these bland words about U.S. fiscal policy: “Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to fiscal stabilization, but noted that a larger than budgeted adjustment would be required to stabilize debt-to-GDP.”

But delve deeper, and you will find that the IMF has effectively pronounced the U.S. bankrupt. Section 6 of the July 2010 Selected Issues Paper says: “The U.S. fiscal gap associated with today’s federal fiscal policy is huge for plausible discount rates.” It adds


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Slow Down… or Else

"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have." Thomas Jefferson

Slow Down… or Else

Courtesy of David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report

On a whim following our Denver Summit – and despite truly abysmal weather – Casey Research CEO Olivier Garret and I cabbed it down to a local public golf course for a quick nine holes. Afterwards we were returning to the hotel through a neighborhood best described as poor, but not disreputable. While our cab made its way down a side street, a radar gun-wielding policeman leaped out of the bushes down the block, pulled the trigger, and waved our immigrant cab driver to the curb. The offense, we soon learned, was going five miles an hour over the speed limit in a school zone… well after school was out and with no other children in sight.

Waiting for our ticket to be issued, we watched as another of Denver’s finest jumped out of a hidey hole on an intersecting street, fired off his radar gun, and proceeded to pull over another slow-moving perp. With such a low tolerance for excess speed, it struck me that what the police were doing had a lot less to do with protecting the public and much more with revenue harvesting. And that the school zone was just a cover for a bonus penalty on the ticket.

Being naturally curious, I subsequently poked around and confirmed my impression. Studies have proven that, in bad economic times, municipalities look to replace flagging revenues by turning the dial up on ticketing.

These studies show that, in the year following a downturn in revenues, municipalities issue “significantly more” tickets. Specifically, a 10% decrease in revenue growth results in a 6.4% increase in the growth of traffic tickets.

In Red Ink in the Rearview Mirror by the St. Louis Fed, the authors make some astute observations about the nature of this sort of revenue harvesting. The following excerpt is worth a read and some further pondering, as it paints a clear stripe down the road leading to your wealth.

The notion that local governments may use traffic tickets as a revenue tool has received considerable attention in recent years largely because of the growing use of traffic cameras to enforce red-light violations. While most studies find that red-light cameras…
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Phil's Favorites

Must the president be a moral leader?

 

Must the president be a moral leader?

President Donald Trump, former President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton, during the funeral for former President George H.W. Bush. AP Photo/Alex Brandon, Pool

Courtesy of Michael Blake, University of Washington

The best presidents – including figures such as Abraham Lincoln and George Washington – are celebrated not only as good leaders, but as good men. They...



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Zero Hedge

"This Time Is Not Different" - Saxobank Warns The Temporary Calm Won't Last Long

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

By Christopher DEMBIK, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis, Saxobank

Investors seeking to track the probability of an incoming US recession must familiarise themselves with the yield curve, a key indicator.

Based on the market’s favorite indicator, the yield curve, the risk of US recession is becoming increasingly credible. Hopes for growth improvements may vanish quickly if policymakers don’t step in to stimulate the economy

Negative wealth effect due to lower house prices

Recession probability models for the US have been all over the place of late. Saxo Bank uses the recession probability tracker from the Federal Reserve Bank ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Feb 17, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

The “V” shape bounce continues in unrelenting fashion as bulls are stampeding bears in 2019!  All due to a little “patience” from the Federal Reserve.  It is really quite breathtaking but we have seen it repeatedly the past decade as the Federal Reserve pours gas on the market.  Hopes for a deal with China also spurred the action upward.  Rallies (both with gap ups) on Tuesday and Friday provided the juice this week.   The S&P 500 is back over its 200 day moving average after being below for 46 days – it’s longest period of time below that level since March 2016.

Mat Klody, chief investment officer at Keebeck Wealth Management, told MarketWatch that the major benchmarks’ steady march higher since the beginning of the year is being driven &#x...



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ValueWalk

JNJ CEO Alex Gorsky On Partnering With Apple [Full Transcript]

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Transcript: JNJ CEO Alex Gorsky Speaks to CNBC’s Jim Cramer Today

Image source: CNBC Video Screenshot

WHEN: Today, Friday, February 15, 2019

WHERE: CNBC’s “Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer

The following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with JNJ CEO Alex Gorsky and CNBC’s Jim Cramer on CNBC’s “Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer” (M-F 6PM – 7PM) today Friday, February 15. The following is a link to video from th...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gasoline bullish breakout could fuel higher prices, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are we about to pay much higher prices at the gas pump? Possible!

This chart looks at Gasoline futures over the past 4-years. Gasoline has become much cheaper at the pump, as it fell nearly 50% from the May 2018 highs. The decline took it down to test 2016 & 2017 lows at (1). While testing these lows, Gasoline could be forming a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern over the past few months.

Joe Friday Just The Facts- If Gasoline breaks out at (2), we could all see higher prices at the gas pump. If a breakout does...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For February 15, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) to report quarterly earnings at $1.49 per share on revenue of $19.52 billion before the opening bell. PepsiCo shares rose 0.2 percent to $112.82 in after-hours trading.
  • NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported upbe...


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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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