Posts Tagged ‘temporary workers’

Jobs Decrease by 125,000, Rise by 100,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.5%; A Look at the Details

Jobs Decrease by 125,000, Rise by 100,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.5%; A Look at the Details

Courtesy of Mish 

This morning the BLS reported a decrease of 125,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease 225,000 temporary census workers. Last month there was an increase of 411,000 temporary census workers. Next month will also likely be negative due to the dismissal of more temporary workers.

Excluding the census effect, the economy added 100,000 jobs but interestingly 20,500 of them were private temporary jobs. Temporary jobs have become a way of life.

Excluding the census effect, government added 17,000 jobs. That is going to change in the coming months (possibly dramatically depending on Congressional stimulus actions) as states are forced to layoff workers for budgetary reasons.

That will be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates Jobs. Unfortunately, politicians and Keynesian clown economists will not see it that way.

Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box – Birth Death Model added 145,000 jobs.

However, as I have pointed out many times before, the Birth/Death numbers cannot be subtracted straight up to get a raw number. It contributed to this month’s employment total for sure, but the BLS will not disclose by how much.

On the whole, this was an OK jobs report (depending on your expectations), yet perhaps as good as it gets for a while.

The unemployment rate dropped only because of a declining participation rate. Last month the number of unemployed was 15 million. This month it was 14.6 million. Clearly the economy did not add 400,000 jobs.

The drop in participation rate was not that surprising because (as I expected) some of the long-term unemployed stopped looking jobs, or opted for retirement.

Nonetheless, I still do not think the top in the unemployment rate is in and expect it may rise substantially later this year as the recovery heads into a coma and states are forced to cut back workers.

Employment and Recessions

Calculated risk has a great chart showing the effects of census hiring as well as the extremely weak hiring in this recovery.

click on chart for sharper image

The dotted lines tell the real story about how pathetic a jobs recovery this has been. Bear in mind it has taken $trillions in stimulus to produce this.

June 2010 Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics…
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Giving Temps A Break

But are many of these temporary hirings pre-planned to be merely temporary, e.g., retailers needing more sales people for the holiday season?

Combination thanks to Tom (But Then What) and Jake (Econompic Data). – Ilene

Temporary Help as a Predictor of Broader Hiring

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

Bloomberg reported:

The worst U.S. employment slump in the post-World War II era may be about to end as companies hasten to hire temporary workers and boost hours, according to economists such as John Ryding and Zach Pandl.

Employers took on 52,000 temporary workers in November, the largest increase since October 2004 and the fourth consecutive gain, the Labor Department said today. The average workweek climbed by 12 minutes, the most since March 2003.

“It is beginning to look like December could be the first month to show a positive payroll print,” Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York, said in a telephone interview. “Companies are running out of labor.”

Jumps in temporary help and working hours often presage the addition of permanent, full-time staff as companies grow more confident sales will be sustained. Job growth would help lift consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, and aid the recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.

[click on graph for larger image]

This cycle may be slightly different as employers delay the full-time hiring due to uncertainty and quite frankly an ability to get top talent "on the cheap" on a temporary basis. Still, a nice sign on the margin.

Source: BLS

Giving Temps A Break

Courtesy of Tom Lindmark at But Then What

Jake has a nice post on the relationship between temporary hiring and its relationship to payrolls. Here is his graph (above).

And he comments:

This cycle may be slightly different as employers delay the full-time hiring due to uncertainty and quite frankly an ability to get top talent “on the cheap” on a temporary basis. Still, a nice sign on the margin.

No disagreement here that it is a positive sign and I agree that employers are likely to use temporary workers as a cheap way of adding employees. Should they be allowed to do that?

Right now is probably not the right time to be doing anything that


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Zero Hedge

Not So Fast: China Will Not Allow Use Of Yuan As Bargaining Chip To Resolve Trade War

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With market optimism brimming that it's just a matter of days, if not hours, before the US and China reach a truce in the ongoing trade war - even though there have been countless accurate analyses in recent weeks explaining why an actual trade deal is impossible since the object of contention is not trade at all but China's creeping technological dominance, something which Beijing will never voluntarily concede - Beijing has poured cold water over expectations of an imminent deal when China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Wednesday that Chi...



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Phil's Favorites

Why opposing the man Trump wants as head of the World Bank might just work

 

Why opposing the man Trump wants as head of the World Bank might just work

The race is on to find a new head of the World Bank following Jim Yong Kim’s resignation. EPA-EFE/Made Nagi

Courtesy of John J Stremlau, University of the Witwatersrand

US President Donald Trump’s nomination of his Treasury Undersecretary David Malpass to become President of the World Bank Group and CEO of the World Bank should be seen more as an opportunity than a problem by African leaders and ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Bank Stocks Ready to Right-Side the Bull Market?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The bank sector is a good indicator of the health of the broader stock market.

Bulls like to see the banks in a leadership role because it indicates that the economy is doing well. But when they begin to lose momentum and underperform, it often leads to pullbacks and corrections.

As you can see in today’s chart, the Bank Index (BKX) began to stumble well before the recent correction. And that bearish divergence was a warning to market bulls – similar to the 2015-2016 setup.

On the other hand, the recent rally has given bulls an opportunity to right-side th...



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Insider Scoop

3 Texas Roadhouse Analysts Agree: Wait For A Better Entry Point In Stock

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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ValueWalk

Whitney Tilson Likes Activision Blizzard On Fortnite Mania

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson‘s email to investors discussing Activision; Snapchat; TradeStops; and hiring writer or editor .

1) I’m going to start sending out short blurbs on stocks that are on my radar screen that I think are interesting enough to do a second round of research. To be clear: these are NOT stocks I own or am recommending – just ones that pass my initial five-minute screen (which few do these days!) that I’m doing some more work on. That means reading the latest quarterly earnings and annual report, investor presentation, any write-ups on ValueInvestorsClub, SumZero or Seeking ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

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Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



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Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

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Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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