Posts Tagged ‘The Reformed Broker’

Media: What Isn’t Priced In Yet?

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

One of the toughest calls to make here is whether or not we’ve got enough negativity in these S&P 500 levels yet.  The answer is that we’re probably almost there in terms of apathy and disgust for stocks, but valuations aren’t yet alarmingly cheap and there is some difficulty in determining whether Europe has gotten close enough to the abyss to drop the big money bomb on it’s problems just yet.  The washout, in my opinion, is still out there somewhere…

I dropped in on the CNBC Street Signs gang for a live taping from New Jersey today, we talked about this very subject and Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough was also in the mix.  Enjoy!

Source:

CNBC 


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The First Bailout…Happy Thanksgiving from TRB

Here’s our first Happy T-Day card, sort of kidnapped from The Reformed Broker’s website.  Happy Thanksgiving back to Josh and to all our readers! – Ilene

The First Bailout…Happy Thanksgiving from TRB

Click Image to Embiggen!


 

Yep, the first Bailout in American history took place in the fall of 1620. Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers – Josh Brown

 


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Is Monsanto Worth a Look? Depends on Which Monsanto You’re Talking About.

Is Monsanto Worth a Look? Depends on Which Monsanto You’re Talking About.

Disclaimer:  This is not research, advice or an invitation to trade or invest.  My comments below are simply some observations based on publicly available information.  Do not trade based on anything you read here.

Monsanto (MON) is becoming quite the controversial stock in light of the dichotomy of near-term and long-term outlooks.  You could make the case that this is true for all of the agriculture stocks (brutal farm incomes and spending this year but multi-year Ag Supercycle on the horizon). 

Roundup - the trouble with Monsanto

Let’s look at MON as a microcosm for the ag story at large…

Monsanto’s long-term story is one of the most exciting and imagination-capturing I can think of.

The short version goes something like this: 

The planet’s population is not only growing, it is becoming more prosperous.  As a result, the emerging middle class (China, Latin America, India, Africa) will be looking to upgrade the food they consume and to include more proteins in their diet.  In order to meet this new protein demand, roughly four times the amount of productivity will be required of the available global farmland.  The best way to accomplish this is with enhanced seed and genomic technology, which puts the industry leader, Monsanto, squarely in the driver’s seat for this global mega-trend.

OK, this is all well and good, but right now in 2009, the $43 billion dollar company is not quite being driven by the Ag-Tech story, it is instead being driven in part by the results of its weed-killer business, also known as Roundup.

Monsanto put out an earnings forecast this week and had to lower its 2009 and 2010 profit estimates in light of the fact that consumers are skipping the brand-name Roundup product in favor of cheaper generic herbicides.

roundup on monsantoThe company is pegging its 2010 earnings at $3.10 to $3.30 a share, The Street was thinking more like $4.30.  Not pretty.

Monsanto’s CEO is telling us that the Roundup business will only be 15% of the profit mix at Monsanto by 2012 as the seed and genomic businesses kick into high gear and go to 85% of profits.  The question becomes whether or not you are willing to see through the valley into the intermediate term when this prospect has the potential to become reality. 

The analysts I’ve…
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E! True Hollywood Story: The Rise and Fall of SKF

E! True Hollywood Story: The Rise and Fall of SKF

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet

SKFSatire-TThis is a guest post by Joshua Brown at The Reformed Broker.

The ProShares Ultra Short Financial ETF, otherwise called SKF, has had one of the most spectacular flame-outs in market history.  One minute, SKF was a superstar, raking in millions of dollars on a daily basis and dominating the most actives list.  Then suddenly, the party was over.This is the E! True Hollywood Story of SKF, Star of the Credit Crisis.February 2007Baby SKF is born on a wintry day at the ProShares HQ in Bethesda, MD.  Just like his inverse twin, UYG, SKF was born at $70 per share on the American Stock Exchange.

SKF: I started shorting banks like, immediately.  In fact, I was ultra shorting them, predominantly through the use of swaps contracts as opposed to outright short sales.  Bank of America, Citi, Goldman…you name ‘em, I was short ‘em.

July 2007SKF was in the right place at the right time from day one.  In the midst of an overheating stock market, Bear Stearns came out in the middle of July with the admission that two of it’s internal sub prime hedge funds were in trouble.

SKF: This was my first big break.  Even though I wasn’t short a lot of Bear stock, I knew I was onto something big.  Every morning, my agents would email me clippings of mortgage-backed securities stories from the media.  The rest of the bank and broker stocks started getting jittery and I was getting hooked on the volatility, big time!

 February 2008SKF celebrated it’s first birthday amidst a Dow Jones that had already lost 2000 points from it’s peak.  SKF was flirting with $100 per share and the momentum traders had just started showing up at it’s party.

SKF: The scene was intense, man.  The StockTwits guys started tweeting about me like crazy and I was all they could talk about on the Yahoo Finance message boards.  People all over the market started to hear my name.  I ain’t gonna lie, it felt good.  Felt like I was important.  So what that Bear Stearns was about to be shuttered and that the foreclosures were starting to get rolling.  I was gonna be famous!

September 2008The drizzle of financial distress has now become a tsunami as Lehman…
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Zero Hedge

Meanwhile In Canada: "Terrible" Jobs Report, Worst Since The Financial Crisis

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As the US was basking in the warm glow of the best jobs report since January, it was a different story over in Canada, where BMO's chief economist Robert Kavcic had one recommendation to clients: "avert your eyes." Here's why: Canadian employment unexpectedly tumbled by 71,200 in November, the biggest decline since the financial crisis.

For those hoping that the details might serve up better news, they too were disappointed: Full-...



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Phil's Favorites

American influence could take the hit as Putin, Zelenskiy try to make peace in Donbass

 

American influence could take the hit as Putin, Zelenskiy try to make peace in Donbass

Zelenskiy is facing a tough meeting with Russia’s Putin on Dec. 9. Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP

Courtesy of Erik C. Nisbet, The Ohio State University and Olga Kamenchuk, The Ohio State University

President Vladimir Putin of Russia and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, are set ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Miners Indicator Attempting Multi-Year Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Gold Mining stocks about to be sent a bullish signal they haven’t received in years? Possible says Joe Friday.

This chart looks at the Senior Miner/Junior miner (GDXJ/GDX) ratio over the past few years. Historically when the ratio is heading up, miners tend to do very well.

The ratio has created a series of lower highs just below the falling line (1), since the summer of 2016. The ratio is currently testing the strong falling resistance line and the June 2019 highs at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; If the ratio succeeds in a double breakout at (2), it sends miners a long-awaited bullish message.

...

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Insider Scoop

Scott Galloway Calls For Twitter's Board To Replace 'Part-Time CEO' Jack Dorsey Amid Africa Move Plans

Courtesy of Benzinga

A shareholder in Twitter Inc. (NASDAQ: TWTR) and New York University business professor wrote an open letter Friday to the company's board calling for the replacement of CEO Jack Dorsey.

What To Know

Scott Galloway, who owns more than 330,000 shares of Twitter stock a...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 

Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices.

The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).


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Digital Currencies

Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com

Chinese cryptocurrency exchange IDAX has suspended deposits and withdrawals after its CEO allegedly disappeared.

In a blog post on Nov. 29, IDAX, which earlier this week warned it was seeing a run on withdrawals, said the whereabouts of Lei Guorong were currently unkno...



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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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