Posts Tagged ‘The Reformed Broker’

Media: What Isn’t Priced In Yet?

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

One of the toughest calls to make here is whether or not we’ve got enough negativity in these S&P 500 levels yet.  The answer is that we’re probably almost there in terms of apathy and disgust for stocks, but valuations aren’t yet alarmingly cheap and there is some difficulty in determining whether Europe has gotten close enough to the abyss to drop the big money bomb on it’s problems just yet.  The washout, in my opinion, is still out there somewhere…

I dropped in on the CNBC Street Signs gang for a live taping from New Jersey today, we talked about this very subject and Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough was also in the mix.  Enjoy!

Source:

CNBC 


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The First Bailout…Happy Thanksgiving from TRB

Here’s our first Happy T-Day card, sort of kidnapped from The Reformed Broker’s website.  Happy Thanksgiving back to Josh and to all our readers! – Ilene

The First Bailout…Happy Thanksgiving from TRB

Click Image to Embiggen!


 

Yep, the first Bailout in American history took place in the fall of 1620. Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers – Josh Brown

 


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Is Monsanto Worth a Look? Depends on Which Monsanto You’re Talking About.

Is Monsanto Worth a Look? Depends on Which Monsanto You’re Talking About.

Disclaimer:  This is not research, advice or an invitation to trade or invest.  My comments below are simply some observations based on publicly available information.  Do not trade based on anything you read here.

Monsanto (MON) is becoming quite the controversial stock in light of the dichotomy of near-term and long-term outlooks.  You could make the case that this is true for all of the agriculture stocks (brutal farm incomes and spending this year but multi-year Ag Supercycle on the horizon). 

Roundup - the trouble with Monsanto

Let’s look at MON as a microcosm for the ag story at large…

Monsanto’s long-term story is one of the most exciting and imagination-capturing I can think of.

The short version goes something like this: 

The planet’s population is not only growing, it is becoming more prosperous.  As a result, the emerging middle class (China, Latin America, India, Africa) will be looking to upgrade the food they consume and to include more proteins in their diet.  In order to meet this new protein demand, roughly four times the amount of productivity will be required of the available global farmland.  The best way to accomplish this is with enhanced seed and genomic technology, which puts the industry leader, Monsanto, squarely in the driver’s seat for this global mega-trend.

OK, this is all well and good, but right now in 2009, the $43 billion dollar company is not quite being driven by the Ag-Tech story, it is instead being driven in part by the results of its weed-killer business, also known as Roundup.

Monsanto put out an earnings forecast this week and had to lower its 2009 and 2010 profit estimates in light of the fact that consumers are skipping the brand-name Roundup product in favor of cheaper generic herbicides.

roundup on monsantoThe company is pegging its 2010 earnings at $3.10 to $3.30 a share, The Street was thinking more like $4.30.  Not pretty.

Monsanto’s CEO is telling us that the Roundup business will only be 15% of the profit mix at Monsanto by 2012 as the seed and genomic businesses kick into high gear and go to 85% of profits.  The question becomes whether or not you are willing to see through the valley into the intermediate term when this prospect has the potential to become reality. 

The analysts I’ve…
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E! True Hollywood Story: The Rise and Fall of SKF

E! True Hollywood Story: The Rise and Fall of SKF

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet

SKFSatire-TThis is a guest post by Joshua Brown at The Reformed Broker.

The ProShares Ultra Short Financial ETF, otherwise called SKF, has had one of the most spectacular flame-outs in market history.  One minute, SKF was a superstar, raking in millions of dollars on a daily basis and dominating the most actives list.  Then suddenly, the party was over.This is the E! True Hollywood Story of SKF, Star of the Credit Crisis.February 2007Baby SKF is born on a wintry day at the ProShares HQ in Bethesda, MD.  Just like his inverse twin, UYG, SKF was born at $70 per share on the American Stock Exchange.

SKF: I started shorting banks like, immediately.  In fact, I was ultra shorting them, predominantly through the use of swaps contracts as opposed to outright short sales.  Bank of America, Citi, Goldman…you name ‘em, I was short ‘em.

July 2007SKF was in the right place at the right time from day one.  In the midst of an overheating stock market, Bear Stearns came out in the middle of July with the admission that two of it’s internal sub prime hedge funds were in trouble.

SKF: This was my first big break.  Even though I wasn’t short a lot of Bear stock, I knew I was onto something big.  Every morning, my agents would email me clippings of mortgage-backed securities stories from the media.  The rest of the bank and broker stocks started getting jittery and I was getting hooked on the volatility, big time!

 February 2008SKF celebrated it’s first birthday amidst a Dow Jones that had already lost 2000 points from it’s peak.  SKF was flirting with $100 per share and the momentum traders had just started showing up at it’s party.

SKF: The scene was intense, man.  The StockTwits guys started tweeting about me like crazy and I was all they could talk about on the Yahoo Finance message boards.  People all over the market started to hear my name.  I ain’t gonna lie, it felt good.  Felt like I was important.  So what that Bear Stearns was about to be shuttered and that the foreclosures were starting to get rolling.  I was gonna be famous!

September 2008The drizzle of financial distress has now become a tsunami as Lehman…
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Phil's Favorites

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension - what this means for you

 

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension – what this means for you

Vials of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to prevent COVID-19. The use of this particular vaccine has been halted temporarily. Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration on April 13, 2021 halted use of the one-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine that has been given to 6.8 million people in the U.S. The pause is...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension - what this means for you

 

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension – what this means for you

Vials of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to prevent COVID-19. The use of this particular vaccine has been halted temporarily. Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration on April 13, 2021 halted use of the one-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine that has been given to 6.8 million people in the U.S. The pause is...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

ValueWalk

UK's First-Time Buyers See House Prices Climb

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

First-time buyers paying as much as £73k more to get on the ladder since the market reopened

Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Climbing Cost Of Houses For First Time Buyers

Research by the new build snagging and defect management experts, ...



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Zero Hedge

Trading Bonds In Venezuela? Bring A Gunman And Cash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Venezuelan bond market - described by Bloomberg as one of the 'tiniest and almost certainly the most primitive' in the world - is also one of the most dangerous.

Based in Caracas where Nicolas Maduro's socialist government is 'ever so slowly freeing up the battered economy' for capitalistic endeavors, the US dollar has become the defacto currency. Yet, there's no electronic method to electronically transfer USD from one bank to another - which mean...



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Digital Currencies

Coinbase Sets Reference Price At $250, Well Below Last Private Market Trade

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Ahead of tomorrow's much-anticipated direct listing of massive crypto-exchange Coinbase, Nasdaq has just announced the company's so-called Reference Price at $250.

On April 14, 2021, the Class A common stock of Coinbase Global, Inc. is expected to list on Nasdaq through a Direct Listing using the ticker “COIN”.

Because this security has not previously traded on any listing market and has no prior day's closing price, Regulation SHO Rule 201 will not apply to the security until its second day of trading on Nasdaq.

As a Direct Listing, COIN will be in a regulatory halt until ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Semiconductor Red Hot Performance Tests 20-Year Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Will the “Red Hot” semiconductor index cool off or get even hotter due to the shortage of chips?

This chart looks at the Semiconductor Index on a monthly basis over the past quarter-century. No doubt the trend is up as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs since 2009.

Fibonacci extension levels were applied to the 1996 lows and the 2000 highs. Currently, the index is testing the 261% extension level, while at the top of the rising channel as momentum is at the highest level since the 2000 highs.

The rare chip shortage coul...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The Biden Yellen team have made their play, and it is not US dollar friendly.

Janet Yellen speech named "International Priorities — Remarks to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs" (here) can be summed to (via Luke Gromen) :


The US is accelerating a move away from "subjugating the US middle and working class to support the USD", to "subjugating the USD to support the US middle and working classes".



Well the above is true, but as we all know large US deficits and the trend of the US dollar are joined at the hip, and that trend is down '...

more from Chart School

Politics

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

 

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

Russian police officers beat people protesting the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Jan. 23, 2021 in Moscow. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Shelley Inglis, University of Dayton

Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, sick with a cough and ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.