Posts Tagged ‘TIF’

Ratio Call Spread Looks For Shine To Tiffany Shares After Earnings

A one-by-two ratio call spread initiated on Tiffany & Co. today looks for limited, though sizable upside in shares of the high-end jeweller. Shares in Tiffany are down nearly 2.5% in the final hour of trading to stand at $88.55. The company is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell tomorrow morning.

The options trader appears to have purchased 5,500 of the 23May’14 90.0 strike calls at a premium of $1.80 apiece and sold 11,000 of the 23May’14 93.0 strike calls for a premium of $0.70 each. The sale of twice as many of the higher-strike contracts effectively reduces the net cost of the position to $0.40 per contract and positions the strategist to make money above a breakeven share price of $90.40 through expiration at the end of the week. Maximum potential profits of $2.60 per contract are available on the ratio spread should shares in Tiffany & Co. rally 5.0% over the current price of $88.55 to settle at $93.00. The sale of twice as many of the 93.0 strike calls quickly eats into those profits if shares blow through the $93.00 level this week, with effectively unlimited potential losses to the upside starting to amass above an upper breakeven point at $95.60.


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Tiffany Puts In Play Ahead Of Earnings; Options Suggest Upside In Chemical Cos.

 

Today’s tickers: TIF, GRA & DOW

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – Options on Tiffany & Co. are more active than usual today, the final day to trade the contracts ahead of the luxury jewelry retailer’s second-quarter earnings report scheduled for release prior to the opening bell on Monday. Shares in Tiffany are off their lows of the session, down 0.25% at $58.30 as of 11:40 a.m. ET. The stock has struggled in 2012 on concerns luxury spending will slow; a strong run in the first three months of the year marked by a year-to-date high of $74.20 in March evaporated in the second quarter amid European debt crisis concerns and China growth worries. The pullback picked up steam in May after Tiffany cut its full year guidance for sales and profits, with the stock touching down at a 52-week low of $49.72 at the end of June. Tiffany’s shares have improved off the June low, but one options play on the stock this morning suggests the shares could slip again following earnings. It looks like one strategist purchased 900 puts at the Sep. $55 strike and sold 1,800 puts at the lower Sep. $50 strike, all for a net premium outlay of $0.70 per contract. The position makes money if shares in Tiffany fall 7% from the current level to breach the effective breakeven price of $54.30, with maximum potential profits of $4.30 available on the spread should shares plunge 14% to settle at $50.00 by expiration next month. The options trader could be hedging a long position in the stock prior to the earnings report on Monday, or placing an outright bearish stance on the luxury retailer. If the stock rallies on better-than-expected results next week, the trader may lose the full amount of premium paid to establish the position.

GRA - W.R. Grace & Co. – A large options combination spread initiated on specialty chemical producer, W.R. Grace & Co., this morning…
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Traders Take To Tiffany & Co. Options After Earnings, Guidance Disappoint

 

Today’s tickers: TIF, P & NYT

TIF - Tiffany & Co., Inc. – A surprise earnings miss and a reduced full-year profit and sales forecast from luxury jewelry retailer, Tiffany & Co., took some of the luster out of its shares today, with the stock trading down 8.5% at $56.55 as of 11:50 a.m. in New York. Options activity on Tiffany this morning suggests mixed sentiment on the stock going forward, with some strategists bracing for further declines in the price of the underlying, while others position for a rebound. Fresh interest building in the July $57.5 strike put, where more than 800 in-the-money contracts changed hands against open interest of 114 positions, appears mostly to be the work of buyers. Traders paid an average premium of $3.74 apiece for the put options and may profit at expiration in the event that Tiffany’s shares decline another 4.9% to settle beneath the effective breakeven price of $53.76. Meanwhile, a call spread in the August expiry looks for shares in the jeweler to post solid gains during the next few months. A 242-lot Aug. $57.5/$65 call spread purchased for an average premium of $2.50 per contract may result in maximum potential profits of $5.00 per contract should TIF’s shares soar 14.9% to top $65.00 by August expiration.

P - Pandora Media, Inc. – Shares in Pandora are moving sharply to the upside this morning after the provider of Internet radio reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday and an increase in target share price to $16.00 from $14.00 at JMP Securities. The stock rallied as much as 19.0% to $12.285 today, reaching their highest level since March, but trading in the January 2013 expiry puts suggests some strategists are securing disaster insurance on the stock. It looks like traders picked up 200 puts at the Jan. 2013 $4.0 strike for a premium of $0.25 apiece, perhaps under the expectation there could be catastrophic…
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Tiffany Options Active As Shares Lead S&P 500 Gainers

 

Today’s tickers: TIF, KORS & CHS

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – Options on the world’s second-largest luxury jewelry retailer are mixed today, with much of the action centering in the front month calls and puts. The day’s volume, currently at 21,500 contracts as of 11:35 a.m. in New York, is more than twice the stock’s 90-day average volume of 9,971 options. The pick-up in options activity arrives on the heels of the Company’s fourth-quarter results and full-year earnings guidance ahead of the opening bell. The jeweler’s full-year earnings forecast at $4.05 per share beat analyst expectations, sending the price of the underlying up as much as 8.0% on Tuesday morning to $74.20. The sharp rally in Tiffany’s shares is a move one strategist had been positioning for last week. It appears the investor initiated a bull call spread back on Monday March 12, buying the April $70/$75 spread roughly 3,500 times at an average net premium of $1.54 per contract. The rise in open interest at both strikes in the days that followed may mean the trader added to the position last week. The bullish play on the jeweler is working out so far, with the shares well above an estimated breakeven share price of $71.54 on the spread. The trader walks away with maximum available profits as long as Tiffany’s shares move up another 1.1% over today’s high of $74.20 to top $75.00 at expiration next month.

KORS - Michael Kors Holdings, Ltd. – The number of open options positions on Michael Kors Holdings, Ltd., as measured by open interest of 30,337 total contracts, is roughly 65.0% comprised of call positions. The preponderance of open KORS calls versus puts was heightened yesterday by one large transaction involving roughly 10,200 far out-of-the-money front month calls. The Company…
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Bullish Player Takes A Shine To Tiffany & Co.

Today’s tickers: TIF, URBN & RVSN

Options brief will resume March 14, 2012.

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – Shares in the high-end jeweler are up 0.70% at $69.24 today with one week to go before the New York, New York-based retailer reports fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell next Tuesday. A sizable bullish options trade initiated on Tiffany & Co. this morning suggests one strategist is positioning for the price of the underlying to rally sharply in the near term. The trader appears to have purchased a roughly 3,500-lot April $70/$75 call spread for a net premium of $1.54 per contract. The position starts making money if shares in Tiffany rally another 3.3% to surpass the average breakeven price of $71.54, while maximum potential profits of $3.46 per contract are available in the event that the shares surge 8.3% to top $75.00 at expiration. TIF’s shares last traded above $75.00 back in mid-November.

URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc. – Bearish activity in the front month options on teen retailer Urban Outfitters indicates some traders are positioning for shares in the name to decline following the Company’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the final bell today. Shares in Urban currently trade 0.50% lower on the session at $29.35. One strategist appears to have purchased an 850-lot Mar. $28/$29 debit put spread for a net premium of $0.35 per contract. The trader may be taking an outright bearish stance on the retailer or could be hedging a long position in the underlying shares. Profits are available on the spread should shares in URBN decline 2.4% to…
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Bulls Return To Tiffany & Co. Options Despite Post-Earnings Pullback

Today’s tickers: TIF, BAC, NGD & MWW

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – Investors sporting near-term bullish outlooks on the high-end jewelry retailer flocked to the options market following the sharp post-earnings pullback in the price of Tiffany & Co. shares. Traders gearing up for a rebound in the price of the underlying appear to be selling puts and snapping up calls on the stock. Shares in Tiffany fell as much as 13.1% to an intraday low of $63.98 this morning, and currently trade 9.2% lower on the day at $66.86 as of 12:20 PM in New York. Investors expecting the stock to rise in the next few weeks exchanged more than 4,000 calls at the Dec. $70 strike against previously existing open interest of 1,264 contracts. It looks like the majority of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $1.35 per contract. Call buyers profit if shares in Tiffany & Co. rally 6.7% over the current price of $66.86 to surpass the average breakeven point on the upside at $71.35 by expiration day next month. Meanwhile, put selling suggests some traders believe shares are unlikely to drop much lower in the near term. More than 5,300 puts changed hands at the Dec. $60 strike against open interest of 970 contracts. Investors sold most of these put options to pocket premium of $0.67 per contract, on average. Put sellers walk away with premium in hand at expiration in December as long as shares in Tiffany & Co. exceed $60.00. Investors selling puts may have shares in TIF put to them at an average price of $59.33 each in the event that shares in the jewelry company plunge 11.3% and the options land in-the-money at expiration day.

BAC - Bank of America Corp. – Shares in Bank of America dropped to a fresh two-year low of $5.10 at the start of the session, and the prognosis for the price of the underlying over the next six month period is bleak by the looks of one options strategy initiated in the May 2012 contract. One investor appears to have paid a net $0.18 in premium per contract for a put butterfly spread; buying 2,000 puts at the May $3.0 and $5.0 strikes at premiums of $0.28 and $0.94 apiece, and selling 4,000 puts at the May $4.0 strike for a premium of $0.52 each. The trader may profit if shares in BAC, which are…
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Put Player Near-Term Bullish On Pandora Post Earnings

Today’s tickers: P, IYR, TIF & BAC

P - Pandora Media Inc. – Demand for options covering Pandora, the online music company that went public in June, jumped after the company reported better-than-expected earnings of $0.02 a share for the second quarter. Pandora’s first earnings report since become a publicly traded company sent shares up as much as 11.5% to an intraday high of $13.90 as its top- and bottom-line results topped expectations. Despite the spike in the price of the underlying today, shares continue to trade at a substantial discount to its initial public offering price of $16.00. The positive earnings report spurred bulls to the options market, with notable volume building in September contract puts. It looks like one trader expecting Pandora’s shares to resist above $12.00 through expiration next month sold roughly 3,000 put options outright at the September $12 strike at a premium of $0.70 per contract. The put seller walks away with the full amount of premium at expiration as long as shares in Pandora exceed $12.00 and the options expire worthless. The short stance in Pandora puts suggests the trader may wind up having around 300,000 shares put to him at an effective price of $11.30 each at September expiration if the stock slips beneath $12.00 in the next three weeks. Options implied volatility on Pandora Media Inc. stand 29.2% lower post earnings at 82.54% this afternoon.

IYR - iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund – A sizable put spread on the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund yields maximum benefit to one bearish strategist if the price of the underlying drops substantially by the end of the year. Shares in the IYR, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index, turned positive in the aftermath of…
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Bull Call Spreads Pop Up on Peet’s Coffee & Tea

Today’s tickers: TIF, EWJ, FSLR, HD, PEET, EWJ, ENDP & CVC

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – The retailer of fine jewelry and other high-end luxury goods has not lost its sparkle according to some contrarian traders establishing bullish bets on the stock this morning. Shares in Tiffany & Co. fell as much as 8.8% to an intraday low of $54.58 today, but pared some of the earlier losses to stand 3.9% lower on the session at $57.52 as of 11:35am in New York. One investor betting on a recovery in the price of Tiffany & Co. shares initiated a three-legged spread to prepare for the rebound. The trader sold 2,500 puts at the January 2012 $50 strike for an average premium of $4.62 each, purchased the same number of in-the-money calls at the January 2012 $55 strike at an average premium of $8.46 per contract, and sold 2,500 calls up at the January 2012 $70 strike for an average premium of $2.77 a-pop. Net premium paid to establish the bullish position amounts to $1.07 per contract. Thus, the options player is prepared to make money in the event that Tiffany’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $56.07 through expiration day in January. Maximum potential profits of $13.93 per contract pad the investor’s wallet in the event that shares surge 21.7% over the current price of $57.52 to trade above $70.00 by expiration next year. The jewelry retailer’s shares currently tout an all-time high of $65.76, attained back on December 21, 2010. Finally, it looks another trader pocketed profits today on a long-term bearish bet established last month on Valentine’s Day. It appears the investor originally purchased 500 puts at the January 2012 $60 strike for a premium of $5.65 each on February 14, when shares in TIF traded as high as $65.59. Today, it looks like the trader sold the now in-the-money puts for a hefty premium of $9.40 apiece. Net profits on the put sale amount to $3.75 per contract. The overall reading of options implied volatility on Tiffany & Co. is up 11.1% at 45.23% just before 11:55am. The luxury goods retailer is slated to report fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens next Monday.…
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Thank Jobs It’s Friday!

US Markets are closed today.

Most markets are closed.  Japan was open and they went up 41 points (0.37%) and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also went up 0.3% in Tokyo 1trading and Russia fell 0.1% but markets in Australia, Hong Kong, China, New Zealand, Singapore, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, the U.S. and all of western Europe are closed today for holidays.  Strangley though, the Futures Market is open this morning so that can make things very tricky on a big data day like today.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained 1.7 percent this week as growth in China’s manufacturing and an increase in U.S. consumer spending bolstered optimism the global economic recovery is gaining momentum. The index this week completed its fourth consecutive quarterly advance with a 3.9 percent increase in the three months through March 31. Shares in the gauge trade at 16.4 times estimated earnings, compared with 14.8 times for the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations.  “The global macroeconomic recovery is behind the current uptrend in equities,” said Tomomi Yamashita, of $3.8Bn Shinkin Asset Management. “That trend is unlikely to change though the market is getting overheated.”

Underemployment in U.S. Workforce, December 2009-March 2010 Monthly TrendWe get Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30 and, obviously, investors are expecting a report that shows the US firmly on the road to recovery but I have already been reading a Gallup poll on Underemployment that suggests otherwise.  According to the March tracking poll, 20.3% of the US workforce was UNDERemployed and that is UP 0.5% from February.  . Gallup classifies respondents as underemployed if they are unemployed or working part-time but wanting full-time work. Gallup employment data are not seasonally adjusted.  

Those underemployed people are mainly counted as employed in the NFP report and are a major distortion of the numbers, especially as the main delta component was a huge rise in part-time workers, from 9.2% to 9.9% and, like temps, they tend to be counted by the government as happy, happy workers.  Unemployment (no job at all) measured by Gallup decreased from 10.6% to 10.4% and you can see from the following chart how those two are related:

Underemployment Components, December 2009-March 2010 Monthly Trend

According to Gallup, as unemployed Americans find part-time, temporary, and seasonal work, the official unemployment rate could decline. However,…
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Monday Medical Miracle – Health Care Finally Passes

Paul Krugman summed it up nicely:

There is, as always, a tunnel at the end of the tunnel: We’ll spend years if not decades fixing this thing.

Love it or hate it, the US has just taken a big step towards nationalized health care so maybe now we can finally stop talking about it and move on with the investing!  I think medical devices (IHI) should do well with 32M new patients – that's a play we made quite a while ago though and, like pretty much everything else in this market – they look a little toppy. 

As I noted in the Weekend Wrap-Up, we came to the decision to get back to cash on Friday, removing all uncovered bullish bets and adding our disaster plays, no longer hedges (as there's not much to hedge) but as bets that the Global markets are due for a little correction at this point.  I'm already feeling good about the decision as the futures look awful this morning (8am) as the Hang Seng dropped 2% (437 points) and couldn't get back over 21,000 during the session and has now given up all of March's gains.  The Dow is still up about 400 points in March as well – hopefully our fall won't be as violent as what the Hang Seng saw this morning.  India held up well, only losing 1% after Friday's surprise rate increase. 

The Dollar was very strong after the Health Care vote and we're sitting below $1.50 to the Pound and we've bounced off $1.35 to the Euro twice this morning – a break below there could get very interesting!  The Yen is staying down at 90.5 to the Dollar, which is a relief for Japanese exporters but I'm not sure they'll hold 90 this week.  Copper broke below $3.40 on Friday – confirming our bearish turn and is at $3.32 this morning.  Gold once again is testing $1,100 and silver failed $17 at $16.82 with $16.50 being a bearish signal for metals.  Oil dropped all the way to $79.31 this morning and we'll see if they can get back over $80 but we are going to be thrilled with our short plays (see wrap-up) in that sector

Risk aversion has come up after developments in India and Greece,” said Henrik Gullberg, a fixed-income strategist at Deutsche Bank…
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Phil's Favorites

The Next Trillion Dollar Stocks: What Are Your Thoughts?

 

The Next Trillion Dollar Stocks: What Are Your Thoughts?

Courtesy of 

In this edition of What Are Your Thoughts, Michael Batnick and Josh Brown discuss:

* Gold vs Bitcoin, let the trolling begin!
* Google joins the Trillion Dollar Club, who’s next?
* Can Bill Simmons sell The Ringer podcast network for $200 million?
* Actively managed US stock mutual funds had a great year in 2019, but most still couldn’t catch the S&P 500. So what?
* Will direct indexing disrupt the ETF business?
* Warren Buffett’s preferred metric to gauge how exp...



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Zero Hedge

CVS, Walgreens Shares Slide As Amazon Files International Trademarks For Pharmacy Business

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Amazon has just taken another step in its assault of the pharmacy industry. Since the company acquired PillPack, a disruptive online pharmacy, back in 2018, pharmacy mainstays like CVS and Walgreens Boots Alliance have been rattled by the e-commerce and cloud-computing giant's move into their territory. Their shares dipped on Tuesday as CNBC reported that Amazon had just filed trademarks for its 'Amazon Pharmacy' brand in several foreign markets, including Australia, Canada and the UK.

Amazon unveiled its plans to rebrand PillPack as 'Amazon Pharmacy' late last year, signaling to the market that it intended to pursue its pharmacy aims despite a high bar set by regulators in the US.

The problem with selling pharmaceutic...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Hang Seng Index Double Topping At 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Hang Seng Index be “Double Topping” at its 2007 highs? Possible, yet not proven!

The Hang Seng Index attempted to break above its 2007 highs at (1), only to see a key reversal pattern take place the following month.

After the reversal pattern, the index has created a series of lower highs, just below falling resistance.

So far this month, the index is attempting to break above falling resistance, where it could be created a bearish reversal monthly pattern at (2).

What would it take to prove that a double top was i...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For January 21, 2020

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.29 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion.
  • TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.09 per share on revenue of $839.96 million.
  • Signature Bank (NASDAQ: ...


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The Technical Traders

Using the copy-paste formula in the Forex market

Courtesy of Technical Traders

In Forex there are many techniques available to boost up the profit factors. However, as there are millions of people trying to make a profit it is not easy to get the right tricks. There are many brokers offering high leverage trading account to the interested traders. They also provide useful insight into the market so that the traders can make a decent profit. In fact, some brokers often sell signals to their clients so that they can start earning money in the early stage of their careers.

At present, this method has earned a huge following as many investors don’t like to spend time staring at the chart. In this article, we are going to try to bust the myth about this infamous technique...



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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Chart School

SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.

The Kitchin Cycle is still working.

We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out. 

Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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