Posts Tagged ‘TIF’

Ratio Call Spread Looks For Shine To Tiffany Shares After Earnings

A one-by-two ratio call spread initiated on Tiffany & Co. today looks for limited, though sizable upside in shares of the high-end jeweller. Shares in Tiffany are down nearly 2.5% in the final hour of trading to stand at $88.55. The company is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell tomorrow morning.

The options trader appears to have purchased 5,500 of the 23May’14 90.0 strike calls at a premium of $1.80 apiece and sold 11,000 of the 23May’14 93.0 strike calls for a premium of $0.70 each. The sale of twice as many of the higher-strike contracts effectively reduces the net cost of the position to $0.40 per contract and positions the strategist to make money above a breakeven share price of $90.40 through expiration at the end of the week. Maximum potential profits of $2.60 per contract are available on the ratio spread should shares in Tiffany & Co. rally 5.0% over the current price of $88.55 to settle at $93.00. The sale of twice as many of the 93.0 strike calls quickly eats into those profits if shares blow through the $93.00 level this week, with effectively unlimited potential losses to the upside starting to amass above an upper breakeven point at $95.60.


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Tiffany Puts In Play Ahead Of Earnings; Options Suggest Upside In Chemical Cos.

 

Today’s tickers: TIF, GRA & DOW

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – Options on Tiffany & Co. are more active than usual today, the final day to trade the contracts ahead of the luxury jewelry retailer’s second-quarter earnings report scheduled for release prior to the opening bell on Monday. Shares in Tiffany are off their lows of the session, down 0.25% at $58.30 as of 11:40 a.m. ET. The stock has struggled in 2012 on concerns luxury spending will slow; a strong run in the first three months of the year marked by a year-to-date high of $74.20 in March evaporated in the second quarter amid European debt crisis concerns and China growth worries. The pullback picked up steam in May after Tiffany cut its full year guidance for sales and profits, with the stock touching down at a 52-week low of $49.72 at the end of June. Tiffany’s shares have improved off the June low, but one options play on the stock this morning suggests the shares could slip again following earnings. It looks like one strategist purchased 900 puts at the Sep. $55 strike and sold 1,800 puts at the lower Sep. $50 strike, all for a net premium outlay of $0.70 per contract. The position makes money if shares in Tiffany fall 7% from the current level to breach the effective breakeven price of $54.30, with maximum potential profits of $4.30 available on the spread should shares plunge 14% to settle at $50.00 by expiration next month. The options trader could be hedging a long position in the stock prior to the earnings report on Monday, or placing an outright bearish stance on the luxury retailer. If the stock rallies on better-than-expected results next week, the trader may lose the full amount of premium paid to establish the position.

GRA - W.R. Grace & Co. – A large options combination spread initiated on specialty chemical producer, W.R. Grace & Co., this morning…
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Traders Take To Tiffany & Co. Options After Earnings, Guidance Disappoint

 

Today’s tickers: TIF, P & NYT

TIF - Tiffany & Co., Inc. – A surprise earnings miss and a reduced full-year profit and sales forecast from luxury jewelry retailer, Tiffany & Co., took some of the luster out of its shares today, with the stock trading down 8.5% at $56.55 as of 11:50 a.m. in New York. Options activity on Tiffany this morning suggests mixed sentiment on the stock going forward, with some strategists bracing for further declines in the price of the underlying, while others position for a rebound. Fresh interest building in the July $57.5 strike put, where more than 800 in-the-money contracts changed hands against open interest of 114 positions, appears mostly to be the work of buyers. Traders paid an average premium of $3.74 apiece for the put options and may profit at expiration in the event that Tiffany’s shares decline another 4.9% to settle beneath the effective breakeven price of $53.76. Meanwhile, a call spread in the August expiry looks for shares in the jeweler to post solid gains during the next few months. A 242-lot Aug. $57.5/$65 call spread purchased for an average premium of $2.50 per contract may result in maximum potential profits of $5.00 per contract should TIF’s shares soar 14.9% to top $65.00 by August expiration.

P - Pandora Media, Inc. – Shares in Pandora are moving sharply to the upside this morning after the provider of Internet radio reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday and an increase in target share price to $16.00 from $14.00 at JMP Securities. The stock rallied as much as 19.0% to $12.285 today, reaching their highest level since March, but trading in the January 2013 expiry puts suggests some strategists are securing disaster insurance on the stock. It looks like traders picked up 200 puts at the Jan. 2013 $4.0 strike for a premium of $0.25 apiece, perhaps under the expectation there could be catastrophic…
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Tiffany Options Active As Shares Lead S&P 500 Gainers

 

Today’s tickers: TIF, KORS & CHS

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – Options on the world’s second-largest luxury jewelry retailer are mixed today, with much of the action centering in the front month calls and puts. The day’s volume, currently at 21,500 contracts as of 11:35 a.m. in New York, is more than twice the stock’s 90-day average volume of 9,971 options. The pick-up in options activity arrives on the heels of the Company’s fourth-quarter results and full-year earnings guidance ahead of the opening bell. The jeweler’s full-year earnings forecast at $4.05 per share beat analyst expectations, sending the price of the underlying up as much as 8.0% on Tuesday morning to $74.20. The sharp rally in Tiffany’s shares is a move one strategist had been positioning for last week. It appears the investor initiated a bull call spread back on Monday March 12, buying the April $70/$75 spread roughly 3,500 times at an average net premium of $1.54 per contract. The rise in open interest at both strikes in the days that followed may mean the trader added to the position last week. The bullish play on the jeweler is working out so far, with the shares well above an estimated breakeven share price of $71.54 on the spread. The trader walks away with maximum available profits as long as Tiffany’s shares move up another 1.1% over today’s high of $74.20 to top $75.00 at expiration next month.

KORS - Michael Kors Holdings, Ltd. – The number of open options positions on Michael Kors Holdings, Ltd., as measured by open interest of 30,337 total contracts, is roughly 65.0% comprised of call positions. The preponderance of open KORS calls versus puts was heightened yesterday by one large transaction involving roughly 10,200 far out-of-the-money front month calls. The Company…
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Bullish Player Takes A Shine To Tiffany & Co.

Today’s tickers: TIF, URBN & RVSN

Options brief will resume March 14, 2012.

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – Shares in the high-end jeweler are up 0.70% at $69.24 today with one week to go before the New York, New York-based retailer reports fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell next Tuesday. A sizable bullish options trade initiated on Tiffany & Co. this morning suggests one strategist is positioning for the price of the underlying to rally sharply in the near term. The trader appears to have purchased a roughly 3,500-lot April $70/$75 call spread for a net premium of $1.54 per contract. The position starts making money if shares in Tiffany rally another 3.3% to surpass the average breakeven price of $71.54, while maximum potential profits of $3.46 per contract are available in the event that the shares surge 8.3% to top $75.00 at expiration. TIF’s shares last traded above $75.00 back in mid-November.

URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc. – Bearish activity in the front month options on teen retailer Urban Outfitters indicates some traders are positioning for shares in the name to decline following the Company’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the final bell today. Shares in Urban currently trade 0.50% lower on the session at $29.35. One strategist appears to have purchased an 850-lot Mar. $28/$29 debit put spread for a net premium of $0.35 per contract. The trader may be taking an outright bearish stance on the retailer or could be hedging a long position in the underlying shares. Profits are available on the spread should shares in URBN decline 2.4% to…
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Bulls Return To Tiffany & Co. Options Despite Post-Earnings Pullback

Today’s tickers: TIF, BAC, NGD & MWW

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – Investors sporting near-term bullish outlooks on the high-end jewelry retailer flocked to the options market following the sharp post-earnings pullback in the price of Tiffany & Co. shares. Traders gearing up for a rebound in the price of the underlying appear to be selling puts and snapping up calls on the stock. Shares in Tiffany fell as much as 13.1% to an intraday low of $63.98 this morning, and currently trade 9.2% lower on the day at $66.86 as of 12:20 PM in New York. Investors expecting the stock to rise in the next few weeks exchanged more than 4,000 calls at the Dec. $70 strike against previously existing open interest of 1,264 contracts. It looks like the majority of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $1.35 per contract. Call buyers profit if shares in Tiffany & Co. rally 6.7% over the current price of $66.86 to surpass the average breakeven point on the upside at $71.35 by expiration day next month. Meanwhile, put selling suggests some traders believe shares are unlikely to drop much lower in the near term. More than 5,300 puts changed hands at the Dec. $60 strike against open interest of 970 contracts. Investors sold most of these put options to pocket premium of $0.67 per contract, on average. Put sellers walk away with premium in hand at expiration in December as long as shares in Tiffany & Co. exceed $60.00. Investors selling puts may have shares in TIF put to them at an average price of $59.33 each in the event that shares in the jewelry company plunge 11.3% and the options land in-the-money at expiration day.

BAC - Bank of America Corp. – Shares in Bank of America dropped to a fresh two-year low of $5.10 at the start of the session, and the prognosis for the price of the underlying over the next six month period is bleak by the looks of one options strategy initiated in the May 2012 contract. One investor appears to have paid a net $0.18 in premium per contract for a put butterfly spread; buying 2,000 puts at the May $3.0 and $5.0 strikes at premiums of $0.28 and $0.94 apiece, and selling 4,000 puts at the May $4.0 strike for a premium of $0.52 each. The trader may profit if shares in BAC, which are…
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Put Player Near-Term Bullish On Pandora Post Earnings

Today’s tickers: P, IYR, TIF & BAC

P - Pandora Media Inc. – Demand for options covering Pandora, the online music company that went public in June, jumped after the company reported better-than-expected earnings of $0.02 a share for the second quarter. Pandora’s first earnings report since become a publicly traded company sent shares up as much as 11.5% to an intraday high of $13.90 as its top- and bottom-line results topped expectations. Despite the spike in the price of the underlying today, shares continue to trade at a substantial discount to its initial public offering price of $16.00. The positive earnings report spurred bulls to the options market, with notable volume building in September contract puts. It looks like one trader expecting Pandora’s shares to resist above $12.00 through expiration next month sold roughly 3,000 put options outright at the September $12 strike at a premium of $0.70 per contract. The put seller walks away with the full amount of premium at expiration as long as shares in Pandora exceed $12.00 and the options expire worthless. The short stance in Pandora puts suggests the trader may wind up having around 300,000 shares put to him at an effective price of $11.30 each at September expiration if the stock slips beneath $12.00 in the next three weeks. Options implied volatility on Pandora Media Inc. stand 29.2% lower post earnings at 82.54% this afternoon.

IYR - iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund – A sizable put spread on the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund yields maximum benefit to one bearish strategist if the price of the underlying drops substantially by the end of the year. Shares in the IYR, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index, turned positive in the aftermath of…
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Bull Call Spreads Pop Up on Peet’s Coffee & Tea

Today’s tickers: TIF, EWJ, FSLR, HD, PEET, EWJ, ENDP & CVC

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – The retailer of fine jewelry and other high-end luxury goods has not lost its sparkle according to some contrarian traders establishing bullish bets on the stock this morning. Shares in Tiffany & Co. fell as much as 8.8% to an intraday low of $54.58 today, but pared some of the earlier losses to stand 3.9% lower on the session at $57.52 as of 11:35am in New York. One investor betting on a recovery in the price of Tiffany & Co. shares initiated a three-legged spread to prepare for the rebound. The trader sold 2,500 puts at the January 2012 $50 strike for an average premium of $4.62 each, purchased the same number of in-the-money calls at the January 2012 $55 strike at an average premium of $8.46 per contract, and sold 2,500 calls up at the January 2012 $70 strike for an average premium of $2.77 a-pop. Net premium paid to establish the bullish position amounts to $1.07 per contract. Thus, the options player is prepared to make money in the event that Tiffany’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $56.07 through expiration day in January. Maximum potential profits of $13.93 per contract pad the investor’s wallet in the event that shares surge 21.7% over the current price of $57.52 to trade above $70.00 by expiration next year. The jewelry retailer’s shares currently tout an all-time high of $65.76, attained back on December 21, 2010. Finally, it looks another trader pocketed profits today on a long-term bearish bet established last month on Valentine’s Day. It appears the investor originally purchased 500 puts at the January 2012 $60 strike for a premium of $5.65 each on February 14, when shares in TIF traded as high as $65.59. Today, it looks like the trader sold the now in-the-money puts for a hefty premium of $9.40 apiece. Net profits on the put sale amount to $3.75 per contract. The overall reading of options implied volatility on Tiffany & Co. is up 11.1% at 45.23% just before 11:55am. The luxury goods retailer is slated to report fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens next Monday.…
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Thank Jobs It’s Friday!

US Markets are closed today.

Most markets are closed.  Japan was open and they went up 41 points (0.37%) and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also went up 0.3% in Tokyo 1trading and Russia fell 0.1% but markets in Australia, Hong Kong, China, New Zealand, Singapore, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, the U.S. and all of western Europe are closed today for holidays.  Strangley though, the Futures Market is open this morning so that can make things very tricky on a big data day like today.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained 1.7 percent this week as growth in China’s manufacturing and an increase in U.S. consumer spending bolstered optimism the global economic recovery is gaining momentum. The index this week completed its fourth consecutive quarterly advance with a 3.9 percent increase in the three months through March 31. Shares in the gauge trade at 16.4 times estimated earnings, compared with 14.8 times for the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations.  “The global macroeconomic recovery is behind the current uptrend in equities,” said Tomomi Yamashita, of $3.8Bn Shinkin Asset Management. “That trend is unlikely to change though the market is getting overheated.”

Underemployment in U.S. Workforce, December 2009-March 2010 Monthly TrendWe get Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30 and, obviously, investors are expecting a report that shows the US firmly on the road to recovery but I have already been reading a Gallup poll on Underemployment that suggests otherwise.  According to the March tracking poll, 20.3% of the US workforce was UNDERemployed and that is UP 0.5% from February.  . Gallup classifies respondents as underemployed if they are unemployed or working part-time but wanting full-time work. Gallup employment data are not seasonally adjusted.  

Those underemployed people are mainly counted as employed in the NFP report and are a major distortion of the numbers, especially as the main delta component was a huge rise in part-time workers, from 9.2% to 9.9% and, like temps, they tend to be counted by the government as happy, happy workers.  Unemployment (no job at all) measured by Gallup decreased from 10.6% to 10.4% and you can see from the following chart how those two are related:

Underemployment Components, December 2009-March 2010 Monthly Trend

According to Gallup, as unemployed Americans find part-time, temporary, and seasonal work, the official unemployment rate could decline. However,…
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Monday Medical Miracle – Health Care Finally Passes

Paul Krugman summed it up nicely:

There is, as always, a tunnel at the end of the tunnel: We’ll spend years if not decades fixing this thing.

Love it or hate it, the US has just taken a big step towards nationalized health care so maybe now we can finally stop talking about it and move on with the investing!  I think medical devices (IHI) should do well with 32M new patients – that's a play we made quite a while ago though and, like pretty much everything else in this market – they look a little toppy. 

As I noted in the Weekend Wrap-Up, we came to the decision to get back to cash on Friday, removing all uncovered bullish bets and adding our disaster plays, no longer hedges (as there's not much to hedge) but as bets that the Global markets are due for a little correction at this point.  I'm already feeling good about the decision as the futures look awful this morning (8am) as the Hang Seng dropped 2% (437 points) and couldn't get back over 21,000 during the session and has now given up all of March's gains.  The Dow is still up about 400 points in March as well – hopefully our fall won't be as violent as what the Hang Seng saw this morning.  India held up well, only losing 1% after Friday's surprise rate increase. 

The Dollar was very strong after the Health Care vote and we're sitting below $1.50 to the Pound and we've bounced off $1.35 to the Euro twice this morning – a break below there could get very interesting!  The Yen is staying down at 90.5 to the Dollar, which is a relief for Japanese exporters but I'm not sure they'll hold 90 this week.  Copper broke below $3.40 on Friday – confirming our bearish turn and is at $3.32 this morning.  Gold once again is testing $1,100 and silver failed $17 at $16.82 with $16.50 being a bearish signal for metals.  Oil dropped all the way to $79.31 this morning and we'll see if they can get back over $80 but we are going to be thrilled with our short plays (see wrap-up) in that sector

Risk aversion has come up after developments in India and Greece,” said Henrik Gullberg, a fixed-income strategist at Deutsche Bank…
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Zero Hedge

Has E.T. Gone Home?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

UFO sightings have been making headlines again lately, notably with The New York Times running an interesting article about several U.S. Navy fighter pilots encountering mysterious objects near the southeastern coast of the United States.

That high-profile story remains unexplained and so do plenty of other UFO sightings reported by members of the public every year like strange lights crossing the night sky or orange disks hovering in the distance.

However, as Sta...



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Phil's Favorites

Food waste: using sustainable innovation to cut down what we throw away

 

Food waste: using sustainable innovation to cut down what we throw away

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Mehrnaz Tajmir, University of Bath and Baris Yalabik, University of Bath

Our appetite for food is a serious problem. The huge amount of energy, land and water used to fill our supermarket shelves mean that modern overproduction and excessive consumerism are rapidly depleting resources and damaging the planet.

Yet still, more than one-third of the world’s food...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Is Pushing Higher Off 18-Year Rising Support, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold & Silver have been hot of late! Is Doc Copper about to do the same? Possible says Joe Friday.

This chart looks at Copper Futures over the past 27-years. Copper has spent the majority of that time inside of rising channel (1).

The decline over the past year has Doc Copper testing 18-year rising support and lows of the past 8-months at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- Copper is attempting to rally off of long-term support at (3). As Copper is testing the bottom of this support channel, smart money hedgers are making a bi...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 19, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Upgrades
  • For American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG), William Blair upgraded the previous rating of Market Perform to the current rating Outperform. American International Gr earned $1.58 in the first quarter, compared to $1.04 in the year-ago quarter. American International Gr's market-cap stands at $48,358,299,270. At the moment, the stock has a 52-week-high of $56.49 and a 52-week-low of $36.16. American International Gr c...


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Chart School

RTT Plus Chart Book (Sneak Peak)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The magic of support and resistance channel lines and how they direct price. Here are some chart disclosed to members via the RTT Plus service. All charts are a few weeks old. 


XAU bound by parallel channel lines.


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Newmont Mining support from Gann Angles.



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US Dollar index (DXY) dominate cycle ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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