Phil, did you by chance publish the weekly webinar on Youtube yet? I have been watching these and they are awesome. Unfortunately, I can't cut out of work to attend live webinars. Again, they are just awesome content – thank you.
jcpdx
Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.
Oknoman
I want to thank you for sharing your wisdom with us. I've learned a lot (and still am) about your trading strategy, but also I see a man who truly cares about our country, America. Thank you.
Autolander
Thanks for the oil tip Phil: Bot & sold the USO May 29 calls for net $125. Not bad for few minutes work.
JWick1981
Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!
Jromeha
Cory Booker for President. :) . Thanks for all the good futures guidance Phil! Having one of my best months yet. Account is up 75% YTD!
Traderd
I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value. Is it time to roll these to the March 37.50s, or should I wait this spike out?
Bill Hoffman
I thank you for the years of being my teacher, always took the time to answer my questions.
You are the BEST !
QCMike
Phil – great calls this past week, esp. friday and monday. in the old days I would have let Prechter et al scare me into trimming my longs and going short at just the wrong time. your feel for the markets is Tiger-esque. CHK, HOV, BX, TLT and XLF are big winners for me today. My biggest up day in a long time. Thanks!
Terrapin22
I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.
2Can
Phil
Killed it tonight trading copper. Anyone who jumped in right after election is up about 75k on one contract!
Thanks
Kapella
Looking over your main themes last week, the "China may fall first" and "if you missed it previously, Thurs am gives you a second chance to short" were absolutely on target. I had to rely on stop-losses because of my schedule but just those two calls could have been worth a small fortune. Keep it up and I look forward to your new portfolio.
Ocelli
Phil,
3 for 3! Sold on initial excitement and made a double on USO, 70% on AMZN and 70% on SPY options from Friday.
Thanks and much appreciated for the suggestions.
Gingbaum
100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!
SSDirk
I love volatile days like this when you can make a bunch of money on these big swings. As long as you have Phil on your side calling the bottoms and the tops of course.
craigsa620
Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you!
I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure.
I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options.
You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.
Redfern1
GLD I took out my callers and rolled down my longs this morning, woo hoo!
Ephmen85
New members – a word of advice: you should check out the track record of Phil's last few trades of the year, and what the return would be if you just rolled all the gains into the next years trade of the year. Remember – trade of the year is one he's virtually sure of, and he rarely misses on those
Deano
Dear Phil, I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership. It is hard for me to follow all evening as I am in Tokyo but I can join you at the beginning of the market and read the next day.
Tokyolife
Phil is a fundamentalist to his fingertips. His ability to value a stock goes well beyond p/e, as he understands the essence of many businesses, what gives them value and how they make their money. As such, his recommendations are invaluable to a investor who takes a value-oriented approach.
Zeroxzero
Phil, i wanted to thank you again for helping me protect future stock allocations at work - finally, i feel like i am owning my own destiny with stocks vs. letting the market dictate what you get – thanks again.
Nramanuja
I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instict which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.
Autolander
Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.
Dstillwe
Phil/Everyone here/Thank you - What everyone here with their insightful comments (including yourself) has helped me with is that I'm greatly increasing my ability to trade more psychologically neutral, although I've got a ways to go. Two years ago I'd wake up early and my heart would race if futures weren't pointing exactly how I wanted… I've noticed an exponential leap in my discipline skills especially over this past two weeks. The old me would have ran with that trade for profits without even asking. Now I know that there are ALWAYS more trades and that I have PLENTY of options to turn a bad trade even. Also, it's more logical and less emotionally draining which lets me focus my faculties on my wife, college, my job, and studying for the ol' Series 7. Would it be safe to say that one of the most important skills to develop is the ability to adjust? I'd love to get to the point where I can look at a bracket and know, for example, what I need to sell for cover in what month in order to get my desired results. Both COF and my past DMM venture have been excellent learning experiences. Thanks, everyone. I look forward to further lessons.
Skasiah
Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,
RMM
PHIL: The most important lesson I have learned is how to hedge using SQQQ, SDS and TZA. A big thanks.
IHS4God
I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.
Gel1
I have to say, hands down, this is one of the best educational experiences I've had in my life. I've even gotten my wife (accountant) into the webinars and she wants to master this concept of selling premium and making smart, conservative investment decisions. She'll eventually use this knowledge to manage her clients' wealth and make smart investment choices for them. Bib big thanks Phil!!
AmalfiCoast
Phil-
I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.
Acd54
Phil, thank you for all the education here. I've gained so much knowledge being a part of PSW.
Thanks to the rest of the members as well! I appreciate all of the contributions you make.
A Toyota dealership advertises a 0% interest rate on the windshield of an unsold 2010 Toyota Matrix in Lakewood, Colo.
David Zalubowski / AP
The flood of recalls — nearly 9 million vehicles in the past 12 months — and reams of nasty publicity involving runaway cars and unintended acceleration seemed finally to have abated for the beleaguered automaker Toyota. Then, on Tuesday, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it was intensifying its investigation into another potential Toyota safety issue: sudden-stalling problems on its Corolla and Matrix models.
This new NHTSA move, a formal engineering investigation of the Matrixes and Corollas from model years 2005 to ’07, stems from more than 1,000 complaints that have been received by Toyota and the NHTSA. It could possibly lead to another major round of recalls if mechanical or electrical problems are found. (See the 50 worst cars of all time.)
The investigation is just the latest in a barrage of challenges — and heavy damage — to the once gilt-edged reputation of the world’s top automaker. While solidly profitable during the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, the company still has a way to go before it can repair that reputation. "They are still a successful company, they just aren’t on a pedestal anymore," says Rebecca Lindland, an analyst with IHS Global Insight.
"This controversy has damaged our reputation," acknowledges Toyota spokesman John Hanson, referring to the sudden-acceleration issue. But it’s about more than just reputation: Toyota faces liability claims over incidents that have been blamed for 79 deaths and hundreds of crashes.
Earlier in August, Toyota executives were heartened to receive a report from the NHTSA that the agency hadn’t found any evidence that faulty electronics played a role in sudden-acceleration accidents, and instead suggested driver error…
GM today reported that they will reinstate over half, 600 of the 1,100 dealership franchises they told to get lost last year- in an effort to keep the other some 5,000 dealerships "healthy and profitable." The lucky 600 will be getting letters asking to stay with the automaker, that’s if they haven’t already closed their doors forever due to the fact that 1) car sales suck despite an upbeat report earlier in the week 2) some people would argue that GM cars suck and finally 3) the GM brand may be discontinued forever a la Pontiac, Saturn, and Hummer.
A consortion of dealerships have been fighting the Detroit giant, citing they’ve been treated unfairly and that GM was vague in their decisions and thoughts on what dealers are actually profitable, and which ones are not.
Chrysler too, which slashed almost 800 of it’s franchises is also reconsidering the cuts; according to the Associated Press "the decision was a compromise meant to avoid federal legislation that would require that the showrooms be kept open."
Under the revised cutting procedures, dealers would "get face-to-face reviews, binding arbitration and faster payments to help dealers slated for shutdown."
As published by the Associated Press on Yahoo!:
"Congress-brokered talks between dealer groups and the automakers began in September. But those talks stalled over disputes about the review process for targeted dealerships and other issues. Looming over the fight has been the threat of federal legislation to deal with the closures. Lawmakers warned that if a deal wasn’t reached, that legislation would move forward.
The White House has opposed the legislation over concerns that it could hurt GM’s and Chrysler’s efforts to rebound from their government-led bankruptcies."
I guess Congress figures, they’re not done launching torpedos at Toyota- better keep some of these domestic dealerships open to sop-up the overage from Toyota’s once ivory, and now bloodied domestic tower of safety and reliability.
As if the Japanese didn’t already suspect that our new found zealoutry about car safety wasn’t just protectionism in disguise, now it’s been made perfectly clear.
Nebraska Senator Mike Johanns (R) says the US should look into banning Japanese car imports until all the safety issues have been worked out.
Johanns, who as USA Today notes used to be the Agriculture Secretary during the beef import ban, likened such a move to restricting tainted meat from foreign countries.
But says Johanns: "I’m as free-trade as anybody here."
Let’s take a look from a different perspective, in defense of Toyota – is it all politics? Or mostly. Mike Whitney suggests a blood in the water situation. - Ilene
Does anyone really believe that Toyota is being pilloried in the media for a few highway fatalities?
Nonsense. If Congress is so worried about innocent people getting killed, then why haven’t they indicted US commander Stanley McChrystal for blowing up another 27 Afghan civilians on Sunday?
But this isn’t about bloodshed and it’s certainly not "safety regulations". It’s about politics--bare-knuckle Machiavellian politics. An attack on Toyota is an attack on Japan’s leading export. It is an act of war. Here’s a excerpt from the New York Times which explains what is really going on:
"The Japanese economy has emerged from its worst recession since World War II, but is still reeling. Japan must do more to lift its economy out of deflation and boost long-term growth, S.&P. said.
“The outlook change reflects our view that the Japanese government’s diminishing economic policy flexibility may lead to a downgrade unless measures can be taken to stem fiscal and deflationary pressures,” S.&P. said. “The policies of the new Democratic Party of Japan government point to a slower pace of fiscal consolidation than we had previously expected.”
President Barack Obama is expected to address similar worries in the Untied States on Wednesday, with a call for a freeze in spending on many domestic programs, a move he hopes will quell perceptions that government spending is out of control. Fiscal problems in Greece and Ireland have also helped put the spotlight on the issue of national debt." ("Japan’s High Debt Prompts Credit Rating Warning", HIROKO TABUCHI AND BETTINA WASSENER, NY Times)
Japan’s new liberal government is fighting deflation using the traditional methodology, by lowering interest rates and increasing fiscal stimulus. But that’s not what Washington wants. Neoliberal policymakers and their buddies in the right-wing think tanks want "fiscal consolidation" which means harsh austerity measures that will deepen the recession, increase unemployment, and…
Not much. At least not from an engineering, mechanical or even a quality point of view. You don’t reach the top gear in the global auto industry unless you make outstanding cars, which Toyota does — most of the time. Though cars are familiar machines, they are also highly complex ones. To create a modern car, a company has to design, engineer, build, buy and then assemble some 10,000 parts. Sell 7.8 million cars, as Toyota did worldwide in 2009 — a horrible year for the industry — and there are billions of new parts with the potential to go kerflooey. Inevitably, some do.
What makes the recall since November of nearly 9 million Toyotas that are susceptible to uncontrolled acceleration and balky brakes such a shocking story is not so much the company’s manufacture of some shoddy cars or even its dreadful crisis management — though those are errors that will cost it more than $2 billion in repairs and lost sales this year. It’s something more pernicious: the vapor lock that seems to have seized Toyota’s mythologized corporate culture and turned one of the most admired companies in the world into a bunch of flailing gearheads. Not only is Toyota producing more flawed cars than in the past, but an organization known for its unrivaled ability to suss out problems, fix them and turn them into advantages is looking clueless on all counts.
Although the recalls seemed sudden, the evidence has been piling up. Literally. According to a report from Massachusetts-based Safety Research & Strategies (SRS), a consumer-advocacy group, there was a spike in the number of unintended-acceleration incidents in some Toyota vehicles in 2002, about the same time that Toyota introduced its electronic throttle control. The problem was initially blamed on a floor mat or vehicle trim that, if it came loose, could jam the accelerator pedal in an open-throttle position. That was followed by the first of several National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) investigations, in 2003, and two small recalls in 2005 and 2007. But accidents mounted, and last November the company had to take back nearly 3.8 million U.S. Vehicles — its biggest-ever recall — to address the problem.
Modifying the floor mats, though, didn’t fix things. Toyota at first refused to…
Some might say that Toyota’s current crisis is a result of enormously bad luck, and they might be partly right.
Yet Toyota’s problems also appear to have been the result of a series of tiny flops, over and over, ranging from quality control to public relations disasters.
For example, it shouldn’t have taken until today for its CEO to address its safety matters in public
99% of your hard work is meaningless when 1% of the time you’re a complete joke.
We’ve put together a quick guide to the amazingly unfortunate serious of events that put Toyota into its current situation.
U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood told reporters at a Wednesday breakfast that people should stop driving their Toyotas, then later toned down his comments to a repair advisory. Maybe it’s just Washington’s new toughness in dealing with Big Business, but LaHood’s shot was clearly a sign that respect for the king of cars is no longer in effect.
The damage done to Toyota by its recall of more than 5.3 million autos is clearly accumulating: U.S. sales dropped 16% in January, and the company’s stock surrendered $21 billion in value in a single week. The Department of Transportation is threatening the company with fines for being slow to react to the problems — a pair of faults that can cause sudden, dangerous acceleration — although DOT itself is being criticized for the same reason. Lawyers, who are never slow to react, are swarming. One class action alleges that jammed accelerators in Toyotas have caused 16 deaths and 243 injuries. Customers who once wouldn’t think about looking at another brand now have reason to.
Toyota has now made two recalls in the U.S. The first, involving 4.9 million cars, was triggered by a problematic floor mat that could come loose and jam the gas pedal open. The second, of 2.3 million vehicles on Jan. 21, concerns a problem with the gas-pedal mechanism itself. Toyota has told drivers to remove the floor mats; its fix for the sticky pedal requires a free 30-min. shop repair. DOT has urged owners of the 11 recalled models to use caution and get to a dealer. Still unknown: whether an electronic problem is also a culprit in sudden acceleration. Toyota says it isn’t.
The parable of Toyota may be that the tortoise became the hare. Over decades, Toyota built its reputation and market share in tiny increments through its renowned "continuous improvement" method. In the Toyota mantra, quality was always first, because it led to lower costs, which would eventually lead to higher market share. Eventually.
But in the ’90s, Toyota set out to become the world’s top auto company. Being best and being biggest created a tension that Toyota couldn’t resolve, says MIT operations expert Steven Spear: "If quality is first, it drives a certain set of behaviors. If market share is the goal,…
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) — Electronic throttle systems are under review by U.S. safety officials as a possible cause of sudden acceleration in Toyota Motor Corp. vehicles, as alleged in at least seven lawsuits.
I wrote on this the other day in which I opined:
But not all cars can "run away" in this fashion, and it can be argued that none should. Indeed, it can be argued that that any vehicle with a drive-by-wire system MUST have a means of intuitively overriding an "un-commanded" acceleration in order to be considered reasonably safe and thus able to be certified for sale.
Now I happen to think that all drive-by-wire throttles should be interlocked with the brake pedal. Put a means to install an override on it if you want (rally drivers will complain if they can’t get one) but for ordinary street use this is something that just plain old-fashioned ought to be there.
If I stomp the brakes the throttle should be returned to idle. Period.
In my VW Jetta Wagon it is.
That won’t cover the case where the computer goes insane, however.
That is only covered by a mechanical ignition switch that interrupts power to the ignition circuit, and that too should be mandatory.
To use electronic "start buttons" for reason of vanity is outrageous. And let’s not kid ourselves- that’s exactly what those switches are.
Second, I’ve been around a lot of dangerous gear in my life with a lot of "emergency stop" buttons all over the wall (or on the machine.) You don’t have to hold them in for three seconds to stop the machine, you just hit them and that’s it – power’s off!
I have a lathe in my shop. It has a big fat RED emergency stop button front and center on the control panel where I can get to it FAST if I need to. It does exactly what you think it should do too – it cuts the power. If I need that machine to stop in an emergency I need it to stop NOW, not three or five seconds later.
Toyota gas pedal makers says it is ramping up production of replacement pedals for new cars
WASHINGTON (AP) — The company that makes the gas pedal systems implicated in Toyota’s big recall says it is working with the automaker on a fix.
CTS Corp. officials say they have ramped up production at three factories to manufacture redesigned pedals. The pedals are meant to solve problems with condensation that Toyota has said can cause them to react slowly when a driver presses on the gas. In rare cases, the gas pedals can get stuck.
CTS says it is also working with the Japanese automaker to find a potentially quicker repair for vehicles already on the road.
Toyota spokesman Brian Lyons says the automaker has not decided if the new pedals will go to dealers or factories.
He says the company has also not decided whether it will repair the defective pedals or replace them. Toyota engineers are working on ways to fix the pedals, he said… more here.>>
Timothy warned me about Toyotas several months ago, and this is his previous article with updates in the comments at the very end – scroll down. See also my previous article, M-m-m-my Toyota - featuring my first attempt at song writing, for my car of all things (thankfully not on the recall list!!). It goes to the tune of My Sharona. (Okay, I had some time on my hands.)
Timothy was subject to one of my interviews back in October, in case you missed it. - Ilene
All Toyota-produced vehicles sold in the U.S. today—including Toyota cars and trucks, and Lexus automobiles—are unsafe. It will take years before new models roll off the company’s assembly lines that are completely safe. Also, millions of Toyota vehicles are on American roads already that are unsafe to drive. Any recent-vintage Toyota product, model years 2002[2] and later, potentially can turn into a runaway vehicle at a moment’s notice. Driving one or being a passenger is like playing Russian roulette. Query whether Americans, especially young families with small children, will trust their lives to Toyota?
Tragically and irresponsibly, the company has lied for years and it is lying now. First, Toyota claimed it was a floor mat problem. Next, the problems were related to the accelerator pedal[3]; and on and on the company’s lies go. Toyota has had 10 years to investigate these issues, and determine and implement solutions, but its management has lied repeatedly and it is still doing it. The runaway vehicle safety problems, which are confronting the giant automaker, are of a magnitude equal to or greater than those that brought down the storied Firestone tire brand, and the same thing may happen to Toyota. Every American needs to read about runaway Toyota-produced vehicles. The facts are sobering.
After the sudden-acceleration problems surfaced in Toyota and Lexus vehicles, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said “more motorists have died in Toyota vehicles associated with sudden acceleration in the last decade than in cars made by all other manufacturers combined.”[4] Consumer advocate Ralph Nader’s trail-blazing and Herculean efforts helped launch the automobile safety movement. His speeches and writings on behalf of Americans (see, e.g., “Unsafe at Any Speed”) helped expose
With COVID-19 infections now evident in 176 countries, the pandemic is the most significant threat to humanity since the second world war. Then, as now, confidence in international cooperation and institutions plumbed new lows.
While coronavirus deaths have primarily been in those above 50-years-old, the disease has also been sending younger people to the ICU in larger than expected numbers - and in some cases, claiming younger victims.
In France, doctors have reported that 50% of ICU patients are under 60-years-old, while in the Netherlands, half are under 50.
Psyched is a bi-monthly column covering the most important developments in the industry of medicinal psychedelics. We hope you follow us periodically as we report on the growth of this exciting new industry.
Champignon Brands Buys IP Company and Adds Ketamine and New Formulations To Its Portfolio
On March 19, Champignon Brands Inc. (CSE: SHRM) (OTC: SHRMF), a Canadian healt...
I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.
This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).
Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...
One of the broadest indices in the states remains in a long-term bullish trend, where a critical support test is in play.
The chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years.
The index has spent the majority of the past three decades inside of rising channel (1). It hit the top of this multi-decade channel to start off the year, where it created a monthly bearish reversal pattern.
Weakness the past 2-months has the index testing rising support and the December 2018 lows at (2).
Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.
Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.
Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...
Amid all of yesterday's chaos in bond, commodity, and stock markets, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropping below 0.5% for the first time in history - a strong indicator that investors are desperately looking for safe harbors - two supposed safe-havens in 'alternative currencies' behaved qui...
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
.jpg)
What’s wrong with Toyota?
.jpg)
U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood told reporters at a Wednesday breakfast that people should stop driving their Toyotas, then later toned down his comments to a repair advisory. Maybe it’s just Washington’s new toughness in dealing with Big Business, but LaHood’s shot was clearly a sign that respect for the king of cars is no longer in effect.
.jpg)
Courtesy of Timothy D. Naegele[1]
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.