Posts Tagged ‘trade gap’

Trade Deficit Widens, Signals Weaker U.S. Economic Growth

Trade Deficit Widens, Signals Weaker U.S. Economic Growth

Courtesy of Rom Badilla at Bondsquawk

Stacked Red Cargo Containers

The trade deficit widened for the fourth consecutive month on a jump in imports of consumer goods from China, signaling weaker economic growth for the U.S.  The Department of Commerce revealed that the U.S. Trade Balance for June totaled a deficit of $49.9 billion from a revised prior period gap of $42.0 billion.  The widening was driven by both a 1.3 percent fall in exports and a 3.0 percent increase in imports.  The June number disappointed the market as economists forecasted a negative trade balance of $42.1 billion.

Since January of 2010, the trade gap has widened 42 percent suggesting that economic activity during that period was weaker than originally thought.  Imported goods from China and Mexico highlight much of the activity as the numbers reveal.  Year to date, the trade balance with China totaled a deficit of $119.5 billion, a year over year increase of nearly 16 percent.  Similarly, trade with Mexico reflects a negative balance of$33.1 billion for an increase of 56 percent from a year ago.

Today’s widening suggests that economic growth in 2010 may be weaker than originally estimated due to a change in assumptions of the calculation of GDP data.  BNP’s chief economists, Julia Coronado stated in an email to clients that the widening deficit “has been a significant weight on GDP in 2010.”  Furthermore she added that the “advance estimate of Q2 GDP had assumed a widening in the trade deficit in June; however the data showed an even greater deficit than assumed. Combined with other incoming source data that has been weaker than assumed, Q2 GDP looks to be tracking 1.5% q/q saar, down from the 2.4% advance estimate.”

In addition, the Mortgage Bankers Association released its weekly applications index.  For the week ending August 6, mortgage applications increased by only 0.6 percent from a prior period increase of 1.3 percent.  This anemic numbers partially coincides with stagnant mortgage rates, which influences demand for home purchases and mortgage refinancings.

According to Bankrate.com, the 30 Year Conventional National Average Rate was unchanged at 4.56 percent from the prior week.  Interestingly and given that interest rates are generally correlated, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury dropped 9 basis points to 2.82 percent during the same time-period.

With yesterday’s FOMC announcement that they will reinvest maturing mortgage and agency…
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Phil's Favorites

How Netflix affects what we watch and who we are - and it's not just the algorithm

 

How Netflix affects what we watch and who we are – and it’s not just the algorithm

pixinoo / Shutterstock

Courtesy of David Beer, University of York

Netflix’s dystopian Korean drama Squid Game has become the streaming platform’s biggest-ever series launch, with 111 million viewers watching at least two minutes of an episode.

Out of the thousands of programmes available on Netflix globally, how did so ...



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Zero Hedge

Where Are We In The Market Cycle?

Courtesy of Jesse Felder, TheFelderReport.com

(The following blog post was adapted from a recent Market Comment featured on The Felder Report PREMIUM, as published at ZeroHedge)

Lately, I’ve started to notice many signs suggesting we are now well past the peak in risk appetites. To begin with, Citi’s panic/euphoria model, developed by Tobias Levkovich (and renamed in his honor after he sadly passed away last weekend), is a terrific visual representation of this phenomenon. In the early part of this year, it soared to ...



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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug - but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound...



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Digital Currencies

Is This the Way?

 

Is This the Way?

Courtesy of 

A listener asked something that’s on a lot of investors’ minds? Should I be taking way more risk?

I’m 34 y/o and a couple of years ago a friend of mine took enormous financial risk, betting his life savings on obscure crypto coins (Elrond and Fantom). The bet paid off and he has managed to turn $30k into $6 million. Can you please help me make sense of this? I have always considered myself to be financially responsible, saving a large percentage every month for retirement.

I’m concerned I’m being too responsible and need to incorporate more risk into my portfolio. My Roth IRA/403(b) is...



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Chart School

Gold getting ready to move

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

By Xmas 2021 the DEM's must set a foundation for their run in US Mid Terms late in 2022. The DEM's have a few narrative problems, but one they wish to avoid is a 'stock market crash'. They must produce enough juice for the economy to hold up into the mid term elections.

In short it is more debt, a  higher debt ceiling, and more debt for the FED to buy, a larger balance sheet for the FED. This means hard currency remains in a uptrend and higher prices will be soon upon us.





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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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