Posts Tagged ‘trading decisions’

The Shanghai market isn’t really predicting anything

The Shanghai market isn’t really predicting anything

Courtesy of Michael Pettis 

A man looks at an electronic board at a brokerage house in Shanghai

It has not been a good year for the Shanghai stock market.  Since its closing peak at 6092 in October 2007, the closing high in the past year or so on Shanghai’s SSE composite was 3471, on August 4 last year.  Since then the market has been pretty bleak.  The SSE Composite finished 2009 by dropping nearly 6% from that high, to close at 3277.

This year things got only worse.  By May 20 the market had dropped a further 22% to close at 2556, and then bounced around for the past ten days closing yesterday at 2568.  In my May 12 blog entry, I finished the piece by saying “Last Friday the SSE Composite closed at 2688.  I bet it is much higher by the end of the summer.” 

Obviously my timing was off.  Within a week of my prediction the market had managed to lose another 132 points.  I still believe that the market will be higher by the end of this summer, and that within weeks we will see moves by the regulators to prop it up.  With all the liquidity sloshing around, all we need is a reasonable period off stability before the market comes roaring back, I suspect.

So am I predicting a strong economy?  Not really.  It is tempting to read falling stock prices as an indication that Chinese investors believe that the economy is poised to slow dramatically, and if the market surges, that Chinese growth is back, but we should be very cautious about how we interpret the meaning of the gyrations in Chinese stocks. 

We’re used to thinking about stock markets as expected-cash-flow discounting machines, and we assume that stock price levels generally represent the market’s best estimate of future growth prospects, but this is not always the case, and it is certainly not the case in China.  I am often asked to comment on big price moves on the Chinese stock markets and what they mean about growth expectations, but I usually try to caution people from reading too much meaning into the market.

Three investment strategies

To see why, it is probably useful to understand how investors make trading decisions.  This blog entry is going to be a pretty abstract piece on how I think about the underlying dynamics of a well-functioning capital market, and how these…
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Zero Hedge

Peter Schiff: Don't Listen To What The Fed Says; Look At What The Fed Is Doing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Via SchiffGold.com,

The Fed continues to talk tough about fighting inflation.  And the markets seem to be listening. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff said you need to look at what the Fed is actually doing. And it’s not doing much.

Despite a big rally in the stocks on Friday, the stock market finished its sixth consecutive week in the red. It’s the longest streak of consecutive losses since June of 2011.

Peter said despite Friday&rsq...



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Phil's Favorites

Where Are We in the Cycle?

 

Where Are We in the Cycle?

Courtesy of 

Where are we in the cycle? It’s a hard question to answer. Inflation is high but interest rates are low. The stock market is getting crushed but the economy is okay. When you put everything together, some pieces of the puzzle seem very out of place.

Ben and I went on Derek Thompson’s Plain English podcast to discuss all of this.

I’ll give you the bad news first. It’s over.

Over the last decade, the defining feature in financial markets has been easy money. Investors were willing to subsidize money-losing companies as long ...



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ValueWalk

Robinhood CEO: Whenever People Think Crypto Is Over, People Build New Products

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) CEO Vlad Tenev on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” (M-F, 2PM-3PM ET) today, Tuesday, May 17th. Following is a link to video on CNBC.com:

Whenever People Think Crypto Is Over, People Build New Products: Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev

KATE ROONEY: Alright, thanks Julia. Vlad, it’s great to see you in person. You just got off stage. We’re here at the Permissionless Conference, which is a crypto conference and we’ll get to some of the news you had out today. But it is good to see you. Thanks for joining ...



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Digital Currencies

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

 

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

Shutterstock/David Sandron

Courtesy of Matthew Shillito, University of Liverpool

Some cryptocurrencies have always been fairly volatile, with values soaring or plunging within a short space of time. So for the more cautious investor, “stablecoins” were considered the sensible place to go. As the name implies, they are designed to be a steadier and safer bet.

At the moment though, that stability is proving hard to find. The value of o...



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Chart School

Powell doing a Volker to crush inflation, yeah right!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

In 1979, Volker was equal to Goliath as he had a good chance of crushing inflation, today the debt Goliath is massive.

In the video below David Rosenberg explains the FED is on a 'Volker' mission to crush inflation no matter what happens to risk on assets like stocks.

David Rosenberg thinking is challenged when ask about the current US debt levels, as Paul Volker did say that he could not have crushed inflation with the debt levels of today.  David Rosenberg simply says the FED is going to hike no matter what, until something very serious breaks.

The question remains will something break in the markets after 1%, 1.5% or 2% hikes. No one knows. But as the US debt to GDP% is over 120% this suggests s...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Microstrategy Stock Crash Gets Crypto Bulls Attention, Key Support Test In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Microstrategy is a tech company selling its enterprise software solutions and analytics (platform)… but it is better known for something else…

It’s CEO Michael Saylor is a bitcoin whale. And he has been investing significant amounts of the companies reserves in Bitcoin. He even secured a term loan using bitcoin as collateral.

So Microstrategy is a bitcoin play as much as anything else. Well, bitcoin and the cryptocurrency space has been hit hard of late, with Bitcoin falling under $30K and other crypto coins tanking.

This is also illustrated through today’s “monthly” chart of ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

China's COVID crisis and the dilemma facing its leaders, by experts who have monitored it since the Wuhan outbreak

 

China’s COVID crisis and the dilemma facing its leaders, by experts who have monitored it since the Wuhan outbreak

A Shanghai refuse worker shows the strain of the month-long COVID lockdown. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Jane Duckett, University of Glasgow; Meixuan Chen, University of Glasgow, and William Wang, ...



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Politics

5 justices, all confirmed by senators representing a minority of voters, appear willing to overturn Roe v. Wade

 

5 justices, all confirmed by senators representing a minority of voters, appear willing to overturn Roe v. Wade

An unscalable fence around the U.S. Supreme Court, on May 7, 2022, set up in response to protests against the possible overruling of Roe v. Wade. Jose Luis Magana / AFP/Getty Images

Courtesy of Kevin J. McMahon, Trinity College

If the leaked Supreme Court decision on abortion is to be believed, five justices have ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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