Posts Tagged ‘trading techniques’

A Tradable Edge

A tradable edge

Courtesy of Allan 

On April 1, the GLD Daily Trend Model flipped long, with GLD closing on that day at 110.26.

GLD Daily Trend Model

One week later,  GLD is above 113, for about a 3% gain.  This gain may not look like much on the above chart, but the near-term at-the-money calls are up well over 100%.   The Buy signal didn’t come in at the very bottom, but it did come in early enough in the GLD rally to generate some nice gains.  The same can be said for the three other signals shown on the Daily chart above.  I like the way these signals perform, not perfect, but a tradable edge.

What now? Hold your gold. It’s in an up trend. Same thing for financials. 

Financials and the market

FAS is a triple leveraged ETF for  financial services stocks.  Its hard to imagine the market suffering any kind of sustainable decline with this kind of strength:

FAS Daily Model
 
GS Daily Model
 
The Sell signal in GS at the end of March was not confirmed in FAS.  Wish I had noticed this earlier, but don’t know if it would have been enough for me to pass on the GS Sell.  In any case, they are both pointing up, for now.
 
Allan’s recently launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with the trading system he’s been working on for years. His trend-following method is chart-based and objective. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model newsletter and trading system, read this introductory article. - Ilene  
 
And while I’m at it, here’s the newest free download from Elliott Wave International:
 
 

The How to Spot Trading Opportunities eBook features 47-pages of easy-to-understand trading techniques that help you identify high-confidence trade setups. Senior EWI Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy shows you how some of the simplest rules and guidelines can be used as powerful trading tools.  Created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, this valuable eBook is offered free until April 23, 2010.  

Go here to download it now.


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Dow’s Theory of Markets

Here’s the second chapter from Pharmboy’s “Handbook of Technical Analysis.”  If you missed the introduction and first chapter, click on “Understanding Market Cycles: The Art of Market Timing” to read from the beginning. – Ilene

Dow’s Theory of Markets

Courtesy of Pharmboy of Phil’s Stock World

Chalkboard with Einstein's Theory of Relativity

Technical analysis dates back hundreds of years. According to historical records, a great Japanese rice trader named Homma Munehisa (1724-1803) developed a form of TA known as candlestick charting.[1] A candlestick chart is a style of bar-chart used primarily to describe price movements of securities, derivatives, and currencies over time.  It combines aspects of a line-chart and a bar-chart, in that each bar represents the range of price movement over a given time interval. It is most often used in TA of equity and currency price patterns.

Technical analysis is an art. With focus and diligence, TA can often be learned within a short period.  A chartist using TA reads and interprets chart patterns and then attempts to predict the most likely short-term outcome based on his methods. Figure 1 shows a 6 month Diamonds (DIA) candlestick chart and many patterns and studies that traders often use to enhance their trading. Moving averages convergence divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) are two studies very commonly used by technical analysts.  MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices, while RSI is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in trying to decide overbought and oversold conditions of an asset.  Because candlestick charting is the basis of this handbook, I use these types of charts almost exclusively in my examples.

In the U.S., TA first gained a following from Charles Dow’s Dow Theory in the late 19th century. The six basic tenets of Dow Theory, as summarized by Hamilton, Rhea, and Schaefer, are as follows:

Tenant 1.  The market has three movements (Figure 2):

  1. The primary trend, or major trend, may last from less than a year to several years.  It is bullish or bearish.
  2. A secondary trend moves in the opposite direction of the primary trend, or as a correction to the primary trend.  For example, an upward primary trend will


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Treasury Bond Yields At Make-Or-Break Decision Point Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.

But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).

Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!

As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields...



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ValueWalk

Biden's $1.9 Trillion COVID Relief Proposal Met Expectations

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on Biden’s COVID relief proposal meeting expectations and today’s trading, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Biden's $1.9 Trillion COVID Relief Proposal

The major indices are all trading lower at midday as the combination of a batch of weak economic numbers, mixed earnings, and negative COVID headlines triggered a pullback in the leading sectors of the market. Pfizer (PFE, -0.7%) admitted that it will temporarily delay its vaccine shipments to Eu...



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Phil's Favorites

The Stock Market Is Broken as a Bellwether; Here's How to Fix It

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens: January 15, 2021 ~

I sat behind a trading terminal at two Wall Street firms from 1986 to 2006. I can assure you that if the President of the United States was refusing to accept the outcome of a presidential election and urging a coup d’é·tat by his civilian militia, the stock market would have sold off by double digits. This era’s stock market has yawned at the spectacle.

I can further assure you that if an actual, violent coup d’état did occur inside the ...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Zero Hedge

UC San Diego Installs COVID Test Kit Vending Machines 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

With daily COVID-19 infections getting worse over the last couple of months in Southern California, one university has decided to introduce coronavirus testing vending machines, reported Reuters

Students at the University of California's San Diego campus were greeted with eleven vending machines over the winter semester packed with do-it-yourself COVID-19 tests. 

School officials told Reuters the vending machines are the first of their kind to be insta...



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Politics

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

 

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

A historic first: the Confederate battle flag inside the U.S. Capitol. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jordan Brasher, Columbus State University

Confederate soldiers never reached the Capitol during the Civil War. But the Confederate battle flag was flown by rioters in the U.S. Capitol building for the first time ever on Jan. 6.

The flag’s prominence in the Capitol riot comes a...



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Chart School

Best Wyckoff Accumulation for 2020

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!


Introduction ...

Ethereum was posted on RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog for monitory and trade entry. To watch the RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog is part of the RTT Plus service. After all you only need one to two great accumulations in a year and returns will be fantastic.






Charts in the video ...


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PnF ...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.