Posts Tagged ‘trend following trading models’

Trend Following Tutorial

Trend Following Tutorial

Courtesy of Allan 

In its simplest incarnation, this is Trend Following:

 
 

The SHORT on this SPX Weekly chart was generated at the end of the week of Jun 16, 2008 @ 1317.  It was in force until the end of March, 2009 @ 843.  That trade gained 474 SPX points, or about 36%.  It could have been implemented using an unleveraged index, SPY, for about a 36% gain.  It could also have been implemented using a leveraged ETF for approximately double, or triple that return.  The key focus for this tutorial is that the methodology was SHORT during a severe and prolonged market decline.  

The next signal was a LONG signal, as shown on the chart below:

 
 

This LONG signal was generated at the end of March, 2009 @ 843.  It was EXITED at the end of January, 2010 @ 1074.  The gain on this LONG was 231 SPX points, or about 27%.  

These two signal totaled over 700 SPX points over the course of about two years.  Such are the market times we are in and unless and until these volatile swings come to an end, this is a simple, mechanical, tradable way to participate successfully in these trends.

The trend line you see on the above charts is based on what is called an Average True Range algorithm.  It was written up in the June, 2009 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities.  The algorithm I use for these trends is slightly different then the algorithm written up in the article, not that mine is better, but I think it is more tradable.  

Daily Charts

The same algorithm works on Daily charts.  Below are some examples using the same trend model on the SPX Daily chart:

 

Notice how the Daily Trend Model works in the exact same way as the Weekly Trend Model.  In this case, a LONG signal in early November lasted through late January and gained about 30 SPX points.  Below, the ensuing SHORT signal in late January:

Following the late November, 2009 BUY, the daily trend reversed SHORT in late January, 2009.  Below, the late February LONG signal:

By now this looks the proverbial greatest thing since sliced bread.

Not so fast……looks what happens next: 

The SHORT_EXIT(LONG)_SHORT series of signals in late April is


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Phil's Favorites

Airlines are going bust in droves, so why do so many people try to launch them?

 

Airlines are going bust in droves, so why do so many people try to launch them?

‘Taxi for Flybmi.’ G Tipene

Courtesy of Loizos Heracleous, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

Yet another airline has collapsed – this time British operation Flybmi, costing almost 400 jobs as hundreds of flights were cancelled at short notice. It is the latest in a ...



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Zero Hedge

Elon Musk Takes Out $50 Million in New Loans, Mortgaging Five Homes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

We were one of the very first to speculate that Elon Musk had mortgaged 5 of his homes in late January, when we highlighted research by an internet sleuth on Musk's personal financial situation. According to public records cited by Tesla skeptic EVent Horizon and laid out in a timeline on Sutori in late January, Elon Musk looked as though he had leveraged some of his personal real estate.

A follow up report from Bloomberg ha...



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ValueWalk

KHC To Be Bought Out By Berkshire: Here Is Why Its A Possibility

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing buyer beware of consumer staples sellers; Stamps.com Inc. (NASDAQ:STMP) and The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ:KHC) blowups; Will Buffett buy KHC?; Is the #3G model flawed?; Asia Wealth Summit; Theranos.

I’m sending out today’s email early because there’s so much juicy/timely stuff…

Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Giant Topping Pattern Could Be Forming, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The first fact of the day; The long-term trend for tech remains up and the decline into the lows on Christmas Eve DID NOT break this trend!

This chart looks at NDX 100 ETF (QQQ) on a weekly basis over the past 14-years. For the past decade, since the lows in late 2009, QQQ has remained inside of rising channel (1). As you can see the decline into the end of the year lows, did nothing more than test support, which held and a strong rally has followed!

Over the past few months, QQQ could be forming a “Head & Shoulders&...



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Insider Scoop

Salesforce.com's Q4 Report Should Trigger Higher Valuation, Says Bullish Oppenheimer

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM Oppenheimer Praises HubSpot's Execution, Downgrades On Valuation Benzinga's Top Upgrade...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



Date Found: Sunday, 05 August 2018, 09:22:26 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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