Posts Tagged ‘trend following’

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Courtesy of Allan

Below is a monthly chart of the DJIA with the Monthly Trend Model and Elliott Wave analysis courtesy of Advanced GET:

 Advanced GET Mechanical SELL SIGNAL requirements [these four have already been met]: 

(1) Measured 4th wave;
(2) Oscillator back to zero line (bottom study);
(3) False bar stochastic Sell Signal;
(4) Break of trend regression channels.

What is missing, so far, is the Trend Model Sell Signal. But on a Monthly chart, this will always be a lagging indicator with way too much lag to be of any worth in trading. We have seen in the last two monthly bars how that Monthly Trend Line has attracted prices, but repelled them both times. Will the next time finally break the back of this last remaining vestige of the 2009 bull market?

I find it fascinating how this particular trade set up works on all time frames. I used it last week on an hourly chart that I sent out to subscribers that just nailed a mid-day reversal. Here today, we see how it applies to a much larger time frame. I have been using this trade set-up since 1995 and it works just as well now as it did the 20th Century. For our purposes, giving us an edge for the next few months will have to do.

******

Here’s Allan’s weekly chart which helps illustrate his point: the weekly chart has already signaled a sell; it takes longer for the monthly charts to change courses compared to the weekly charts. – Ilene 

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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SPX – very short term model

SPX – very short term model: UPDATED

Courtesy of Allan  

Below the SPX 30 minute trend model along with the False Bar Stochastic:

What I see here is:

First, an excellent bevy of short-term timing signals generated by this 30 minute trend model;  

Second, the False Bar Stochastic is in "Down Trend" mode, meaning that the apparent Buy signals on the stochastic are ignored, but the Sell signals are very actionable; and 

Finally, that 1177 is a key resistance level, at least for the short term and if and when prices approach that level, assuming the FBS confirms,  it may present an opportunity to add to existing positions, or enter, Short. 

******

For non-chartists like me, I asked Allan what the FBS was and how to know whether it "confirms."  Here’s his response:

"FBS is a False Bar Stochastic and it identifies trending prices so as not to trade against the trend.  When you see a horizontal black bar on the stochastic chart, it means not to take those trades, instead await for the next stochastic signal (crossing of lines either above 80 or below 20) without a black bar.

The only two ways of knowing if there is a new stochastic signal is to own Advance GET software or look for an update on my published charts."

So if the black bar is on the bottom, it’s a don’t buy, and if the black bar is on the top, it’s a don’t sell.

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with his trend-following trading system. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For more details, read this introductory article.


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Greatly Overvalued Stocks – Time to short?

Greatly Overvalued Stocks - Time to short?

Courtesy of Allan

Ilene, at PSW, sent me this list of overvalued stocks in the news fromOckham Research and asked me to run them through my system looking for short sales.  I’ve run them through my trend models and have posted results, in red italics.  Below that, a few of the charts that look especially Bearish.

Caution: Greatly Overvalued Stocks in the News

At Ockham, we recently released a new stock screening tool on our site that we now use daily around the office to more efficiently wade through our coverage of over 8400 stocks.  One interesting filter we used today was to see stocks that have our Greatly Overvalued rating, and also have been mentioned in the financial media within the last 30 days according to RazorWire.  These stocks represent a subset of our most negative ratings that are also attracting some attention lately either because of earnings releases or some other reason to be mentioned on business television or influential financial blogs. 

Ockham’s "Overvalued" Stocks:       Allan’s Trend Analysis

Occidental Petroleum (OXY): New Buy as of Friday’s close;
ArcelorMittal (MT):   Sell Daily, New Sell on Weekly;
Caterpillar (CAT):  New Sell Pending, trigger is close under 67.88
Johnson Controls (JCI):   Still in uptrend, but Sell under 33.09
PACCAR, Inc (PCAR):  Still in uptrend, but Sell under 45.65
Vornado Realty (VNO): Uptrend;
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP):  Daily Sell, Weekly Long;
Eaton Corporation (ETN):  Daily Sell signal; Weekly still Long;
Fidelity National Info Services (FIS): Strong Uptrend;
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF): Daily Short, Weekly new Sell;
Cree, Inc. (CREE): Daily Short, Weekly Sell pending;
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN): New Sell on Daily chart;
BorgWarner, Inc. (BWA): Strong uptrend;
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV):  Daily Short, Weekly Sell pending;
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC):  Uptrend;
Redwood Trust (RWT):  Daily Short, Weekly Long;
Imax Corp (IMAX):  New Sell on Daily;
Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT): Strong uptrend.

 
Best looking charts for Selling
 

 

 

 

 

   

 

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with a trend-following trading system he’s been working on for years. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.

 


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Duel in the desert

Allan, thinking he’s getting the first whiff of the elusive sell signal--is he imagining it? - Ilene 

Duel in the desert

Seated nine rows behind the Phoenix net, I contemplated the subject of today’s Blog while fiercely observant and engaged in a great playoff game, a great hockey game and the great, great, back and forth, up and down, volatile second period when five goals were scored. 

How pathetic, or how dedicated, can I be to be thinking about the stock market in the middle of all the electrified intensity of a Stanley Cup playoff game involving my beloved, Detroit Red Wings?  

So I decided to lead with hockey today, testing my readers patience while at the same time rewarding those who read through the photo and opening paragraph to these words:   

SPX Daily Sell Signal
 
 
I sent out my analysis to the email list earlier today.  But this is not that complicated.  My Daily models, the ones that suggest intermediate term trends, are beginning to change.  Not all of them, not yet, but some of the more significant ones, including the one below, which is an inverse ETF for China stocks:
 
 FXP Daily Trend Model
 
You don’t have to bet the ranch here.  Nor do we have to assume Armageddon is at hand, plume of volcanic ash, or not.
 
 

But what is suggested is to walk the talk; when the models are flipping, govern yourselves accordingly. 

*****

Allan’s new newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with the trend-following trading system he’s been working on for years. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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BIDU Weekly

This is perhaps one of the best examples of Allan’s trend trading system.  Allan says that BIDU is an excellent trender and his system would have got you in sometime in January, though the last weekly signal was back in 2009. For you bears, his system should catch a trend reversal early.  (It’s hard not to look at that chart and anticipate a BID adieU moment, but maybe that’s just me.) Anyway, Allan’s system is easy to trade and you’d only be looking at signals on Monday morning. – Ilene 

BIDU Weekly – Update 

Courtesy of Allan

I wrote up the Weekly Trade Model of BIDU back in January.  It has turned into one of big success stories of the Trend Models:

 BIDU Weekly Trend Model

We knew in January that BIDU trended well and was a good stock to trade in a longer-term model.   Although they all don’t trend this well, having one or two that do, make up for any that don’t.  Another "Basket" idea in the making? 

 

And the market as a whole?  

Says Allan: Back to Trends.

Notwithstanding my personal trend line, the market’s trend has been up since mid February.

 

SPX Daily Trend Model

 

The beauty and simplicity of this directional model cannot be overstated.  The up-trend continues, as it will until it reverses.  Trade accordingly.

Allan just launched a newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” to go with the trading system he’s been working on for years. His trend-following method is chart-based and objective. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model newsletter and trading system, read this introductory article. – Ilene 


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Phil's Favorites

Biden, Keystone XL and a Green New Deal could shake up Canada's energy industry

 

Biden, Keystone XL and a Green New Deal could shake up Canada's energy industry

Joe Biden has vowed to kill the Keystone XL pipeline if he is elected president in November. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Alex Panetta

Courtesy of Warren Mabee, Queen's University, Ontario

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden recently reiterated his desire to stop the Keystone XL oil pipeline project. “I’ve been against Keystone from the beginning. It is tarsands that we don’t need — that in fact is a very, very high pollutant,” he said.

This is just the latest mo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How coronavirus contact tracing works in a state Dr. Fauci praised as a model to follow

 

How coronavirus contact tracing works in a state Dr. Fauci praised as a model to follow

Pairing widespread testing with fast, effective contact tracing is considered essential for controlling the coronavirus’s spread as the U.S. passes 100,000 deaths. AP Images/Rick Bowmer

Courtesy of Jenny Meredith, University of South Carolina

After weeks of keeping people home to “flatten the curve,” restrictions on U.S. businesses are loosening and the coronavirus pandemic response is moving ...



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ValueWalk

Don't expect a second round of stimulus checks in June

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Lawmakers from both parties are finally starting to agree that a second round of coronavirus stimulus checks may be needed. However, they are still a long way from making a final decision that will actually result in another round of checks for everyone. Here’s the current status on a second round of stimulus checks.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Coronavirus stimulus checks: second round status

The Democrat-led House of Representatives passed the Health and Ec...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Tread Water In Calm Before US-China Storm, Trump Twitter Crackdown

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The S&P's remarkable stretch of posting gains in the overnight session continued for another day, with the S&P rising as high as 3,053, and last trading 9 points higher at 3,044, tracking global stocks higher, with Europe's Stoxx 600 rising 1.3% to session highs as investors weighed again increased friction between America and China and the official passage of China's National Security Law in defiance of Trump, against fresh fiscal stimulus promised by the European Union. Treasuries edged up, while the dollar was modestly lower even as traders "treaded water...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Indicator Suggesting A Historic Top Could Be Forming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!

But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.

The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the ...



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The Technical Traders

M2 Velocity Collapses - Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

M2 Velocity is the measurement of capital circulating within the economy.  The faster capital circulates within the economy, the more that capital is being deployed within the economy to create output and opportunities for economic growth.  When M2 Velocity contracts, capital is being deployed in investments or assets that prevent that capital from further circulation within the economy – thus preventing further output and opportunity growth features.

The decline in M2 Velocity over the past 10+ years has been dramatic and consistent with the dramatic new zero US Federal Reserve interest rates initiated since just after the 2008 credit crisis market colla...



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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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