Posts Tagged ‘trend following’

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Courtesy of Allan

Below is a monthly chart of the DJIA with the Monthly Trend Model and Elliott Wave analysis courtesy of Advanced GET:

 Advanced GET Mechanical SELL SIGNAL requirements [these four have already been met]: 

(1) Measured 4th wave;
(2) Oscillator back to zero line (bottom study);
(3) False bar stochastic Sell Signal;
(4) Break of trend regression channels.

What is missing, so far, is the Trend Model Sell Signal. But on a Monthly chart, this will always be a lagging indicator with way too much lag to be of any worth in trading. We have seen in the last two monthly bars how that Monthly Trend Line has attracted prices, but repelled them both times. Will the next time finally break the back of this last remaining vestige of the 2009 bull market?

I find it fascinating how this particular trade set up works on all time frames. I used it last week on an hourly chart that I sent out to subscribers that just nailed a mid-day reversal. Here today, we see how it applies to a much larger time frame. I have been using this trade set-up since 1995 and it works just as well now as it did the 20th Century. For our purposes, giving us an edge for the next few months will have to do.

******

Here’s Allan’s weekly chart which helps illustrate his point: the weekly chart has already signaled a sell; it takes longer for the monthly charts to change courses compared to the weekly charts. – Ilene 

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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SPX – very short term model

SPX – very short term model: UPDATED

Courtesy of Allan  

Below the SPX 30 minute trend model along with the False Bar Stochastic:

What I see here is:

First, an excellent bevy of short-term timing signals generated by this 30 minute trend model;  

Second, the False Bar Stochastic is in "Down Trend" mode, meaning that the apparent Buy signals on the stochastic are ignored, but the Sell signals are very actionable; and 

Finally, that 1177 is a key resistance level, at least for the short term and if and when prices approach that level, assuming the FBS confirms,  it may present an opportunity to add to existing positions, or enter, Short. 

******

For non-chartists like me, I asked Allan what the FBS was and how to know whether it "confirms."  Here’s his response:

"FBS is a False Bar Stochastic and it identifies trending prices so as not to trade against the trend.  When you see a horizontal black bar on the stochastic chart, it means not to take those trades, instead await for the next stochastic signal (crossing of lines either above 80 or below 20) without a black bar.

The only two ways of knowing if there is a new stochastic signal is to own Advance GET software or look for an update on my published charts."

So if the black bar is on the bottom, it’s a don’t buy, and if the black bar is on the top, it’s a don’t sell.

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with his trend-following trading system. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For more details, read this introductory article.


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Greatly Overvalued Stocks – Time to short?

Greatly Overvalued Stocks - Time to short?

Courtesy of Allan

Ilene, at PSW, sent me this list of overvalued stocks in the news fromOckham Research and asked me to run them through my system looking for short sales.  I’ve run them through my trend models and have posted results, in red italics.  Below that, a few of the charts that look especially Bearish.

Caution: Greatly Overvalued Stocks in the News

At Ockham, we recently released a new stock screening tool on our site that we now use daily around the office to more efficiently wade through our coverage of over 8400 stocks.  One interesting filter we used today was to see stocks that have our Greatly Overvalued rating, and also have been mentioned in the financial media within the last 30 days according to RazorWire.  These stocks represent a subset of our most negative ratings that are also attracting some attention lately either because of earnings releases or some other reason to be mentioned on business television or influential financial blogs. 

Ockham’s "Overvalued" Stocks:       Allan’s Trend Analysis

Occidental Petroleum (OXY): New Buy as of Friday’s close;
ArcelorMittal (MT):   Sell Daily, New Sell on Weekly;
Caterpillar (CAT):  New Sell Pending, trigger is close under 67.88
Johnson Controls (JCI):   Still in uptrend, but Sell under 33.09
PACCAR, Inc (PCAR):  Still in uptrend, but Sell under 45.65
Vornado Realty (VNO): Uptrend;
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP):  Daily Sell, Weekly Long;
Eaton Corporation (ETN):  Daily Sell signal; Weekly still Long;
Fidelity National Info Services (FIS): Strong Uptrend;
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF): Daily Short, Weekly new Sell;
Cree, Inc. (CREE): Daily Short, Weekly Sell pending;
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN): New Sell on Daily chart;
BorgWarner, Inc. (BWA): Strong uptrend;
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV):  Daily Short, Weekly Sell pending;
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC):  Uptrend;
Redwood Trust (RWT):  Daily Short, Weekly Long;
Imax Corp (IMAX):  New Sell on Daily;
Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT): Strong uptrend.

 
Best looking charts for Selling
 

 

 

 

 

   

 

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with a trend-following trading system he’s been working on for years. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.

 


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Duel in the desert

Allan, thinking he’s getting the first whiff of the elusive sell signal--is he imagining it? - Ilene 

Duel in the desert

Seated nine rows behind the Phoenix net, I contemplated the subject of today’s Blog while fiercely observant and engaged in a great playoff game, a great hockey game and the great, great, back and forth, up and down, volatile second period when five goals were scored. 

How pathetic, or how dedicated, can I be to be thinking about the stock market in the middle of all the electrified intensity of a Stanley Cup playoff game involving my beloved, Detroit Red Wings?  

So I decided to lead with hockey today, testing my readers patience while at the same time rewarding those who read through the photo and opening paragraph to these words:   

SPX Daily Sell Signal
 
 
I sent out my analysis to the email list earlier today.  But this is not that complicated.  My Daily models, the ones that suggest intermediate term trends, are beginning to change.  Not all of them, not yet, but some of the more significant ones, including the one below, which is an inverse ETF for China stocks:
 
 FXP Daily Trend Model
 
You don’t have to bet the ranch here.  Nor do we have to assume Armageddon is at hand, plume of volcanic ash, or not.
 
 

But what is suggested is to walk the talk; when the models are flipping, govern yourselves accordingly. 

*****

Allan’s new newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with the trend-following trading system he’s been working on for years. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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BIDU Weekly

This is perhaps one of the best examples of Allan’s trend trading system.  Allan says that BIDU is an excellent trender and his system would have got you in sometime in January, though the last weekly signal was back in 2009. For you bears, his system should catch a trend reversal early.  (It’s hard not to look at that chart and anticipate a BID adieU moment, but maybe that’s just me.) Anyway, Allan’s system is easy to trade and you’d only be looking at signals on Monday morning. – Ilene 

BIDU Weekly – Update 

Courtesy of Allan

I wrote up the Weekly Trade Model of BIDU back in January.  It has turned into one of big success stories of the Trend Models:

 BIDU Weekly Trend Model

We knew in January that BIDU trended well and was a good stock to trade in a longer-term model.   Although they all don’t trend this well, having one or two that do, make up for any that don’t.  Another "Basket" idea in the making? 

 

And the market as a whole?  

Says Allan: Back to Trends.

Notwithstanding my personal trend line, the market’s trend has been up since mid February.

 

SPX Daily Trend Model

 

The beauty and simplicity of this directional model cannot be overstated.  The up-trend continues, as it will until it reverses.  Trade accordingly.

Allan just launched a newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” to go with the trading system he’s been working on for years. His trend-following method is chart-based and objective. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model newsletter and trading system, read this introductory article. – Ilene 


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Zero Hedge

Are Stablecoins A Solution For Every Unbanked Business Out There?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Dean Steinbeck via Hackernoon.com,

For most businesses, opening a bank account and getting access to a variety of services is a straightforward task.

But this is not the case for certain businesses that operate on the fringe of what is seen as acceptable by governments and society at large.

The burgeoning cannabis industry is a case in point. The industry is legal in a number of states in America, yet many of these businesses st...



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ValueWalk

Tax Receipts Decline As Budget Deficit Reaches Record

By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The U.S budget deficit has widened as the corporate and individual tax receipts and other revenue declines in the face of federal spending reaching new heights.

geralt / Pixabay

Last year’s fiscal gap for February was $215.2 billion. It has now grown to $234 billion. This is larger than the last budget deficit record set in 2012. This increase is due to declines in tax receipts for October-February. The period saw a decline of 1 percent (1.3 trillion ) from the prior year while growth in federal spending rose upwards of 9 percent to 1.8 t...



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Phil's Favorites

Holy s*** the yield curve inverted

 

Holy s*** the yield curve inverted

Courtesy of 

Bloomberg:

A closely watched section of the Treasury yield curve on Friday turned negative for the first time since the crisis more than a decade ago, underscoring concern about a possible economic slump and the prospect that the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates.

The gap between t...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

NYSE Index Suggesting The Top Is In, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is a very broad stock index suggesting that a top is in play? What this index does to close this week should go a long way to answering that question!

This chart looks at the NYSE Index on a weekly basis over the past 4-years. Over the past 15-months, it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of the shaded falling channel. It hit strong support around Christmas at (1) and a counter-trend rally started. The rally now has it testing the top of the falling channel at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- The NYSE index could be cre...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Buckingham cut the price target for Trinity Industries Inc (NYSE: TRN) from $32 to $26. Trinity Industries shares closed at $22.96 on Thursday.
  • Canaccord Genuity lowered the price target for Biogen Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB) from $396 to $275. Biogen shares closed at $226.88 on Thursday.
  • H.C. Wainwright cut the price target on Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: CNAT) from $8 to $1.50. Conatus Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $2.91 on Thursday.
  • Wedb...


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Chart School

Silver is cheap vs Gold

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Metal investors will be paying attention to how out of favor silver is relative to gold. And it is hard to wonder why with the well forecast boom of electric cars expected over the next 10 years. Who owns all the silver? JM Bullion has a series of charts here. Notice the stock pile held by JPM. They will do will if silver gets to $30 USD an once!

Chart up to April 2017



As of the 20th of March 2019 the US Federal Reserve has switched to dovish...

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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

 

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

Grejak/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alistair Milne, Loughborough University

Facebook is reportedly preparing to launch its own version of Bitcoin, for use in its messaging applications, WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram. Could this “Facecoin” be the long-awaited breakthrough by a global technology giant into the lucrative market for retail financial services? Or will...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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