Posts Tagged ‘trend following’

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Courtesy of Allan

Below is a monthly chart of the DJIA with the Monthly Trend Model and Elliott Wave analysis courtesy of Advanced GET:

 Advanced GET Mechanical SELL SIGNAL requirements [these four have already been met]: 

(1) Measured 4th wave;
(2) Oscillator back to zero line (bottom study);
(3) False bar stochastic Sell Signal;
(4) Break of trend regression channels.

What is missing, so far, is the Trend Model Sell Signal. But on a Monthly chart, this will always be a lagging indicator with way too much lag to be of any worth in trading. We have seen in the last two monthly bars how that Monthly Trend Line has attracted prices, but repelled them both times. Will the next time finally break the back of this last remaining vestige of the 2009 bull market?

I find it fascinating how this particular trade set up works on all time frames. I used it last week on an hourly chart that I sent out to subscribers that just nailed a mid-day reversal. Here today, we see how it applies to a much larger time frame. I have been using this trade set-up since 1995 and it works just as well now as it did the 20th Century. For our purposes, giving us an edge for the next few months will have to do.

******

Here’s Allan’s weekly chart which helps illustrate his point: the weekly chart has already signaled a sell; it takes longer for the monthly charts to change courses compared to the weekly charts. – Ilene 

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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SPX – very short term model

SPX – very short term model: UPDATED

Courtesy of Allan  

Below the SPX 30 minute trend model along with the False Bar Stochastic:

What I see here is:

First, an excellent bevy of short-term timing signals generated by this 30 minute trend model;  

Second, the False Bar Stochastic is in "Down Trend" mode, meaning that the apparent Buy signals on the stochastic are ignored, but the Sell signals are very actionable; and 

Finally, that 1177 is a key resistance level, at least for the short term and if and when prices approach that level, assuming the FBS confirms,  it may present an opportunity to add to existing positions, or enter, Short. 

******

For non-chartists like me, I asked Allan what the FBS was and how to know whether it "confirms."  Here’s his response:

"FBS is a False Bar Stochastic and it identifies trending prices so as not to trade against the trend.  When you see a horizontal black bar on the stochastic chart, it means not to take those trades, instead await for the next stochastic signal (crossing of lines either above 80 or below 20) without a black bar.

The only two ways of knowing if there is a new stochastic signal is to own Advance GET software or look for an update on my published charts."

So if the black bar is on the bottom, it’s a don’t buy, and if the black bar is on the top, it’s a don’t sell.

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with his trend-following trading system. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For more details, read this introductory article.


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Greatly Overvalued Stocks – Time to short?

Greatly Overvalued Stocks - Time to short?

Courtesy of Allan

Ilene, at PSW, sent me this list of overvalued stocks in the news fromOckham Research and asked me to run them through my system looking for short sales.  I’ve run them through my trend models and have posted results, in red italics.  Below that, a few of the charts that look especially Bearish.

Caution: Greatly Overvalued Stocks in the News

At Ockham, we recently released a new stock screening tool on our site that we now use daily around the office to more efficiently wade through our coverage of over 8400 stocks.  One interesting filter we used today was to see stocks that have our Greatly Overvalued rating, and also have been mentioned in the financial media within the last 30 days according to RazorWire.  These stocks represent a subset of our most negative ratings that are also attracting some attention lately either because of earnings releases or some other reason to be mentioned on business television or influential financial blogs. 

Ockham’s "Overvalued" Stocks:       Allan’s Trend Analysis

Occidental Petroleum (OXY): New Buy as of Friday’s close;
ArcelorMittal (MT):   Sell Daily, New Sell on Weekly;
Caterpillar (CAT):  New Sell Pending, trigger is close under 67.88
Johnson Controls (JCI):   Still in uptrend, but Sell under 33.09
PACCAR, Inc (PCAR):  Still in uptrend, but Sell under 45.65
Vornado Realty (VNO): Uptrend;
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP):  Daily Sell, Weekly Long;
Eaton Corporation (ETN):  Daily Sell signal; Weekly still Long;
Fidelity National Info Services (FIS): Strong Uptrend;
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF): Daily Short, Weekly new Sell;
Cree, Inc. (CREE): Daily Short, Weekly Sell pending;
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN): New Sell on Daily chart;
BorgWarner, Inc. (BWA): Strong uptrend;
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV):  Daily Short, Weekly Sell pending;
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC):  Uptrend;
Redwood Trust (RWT):  Daily Short, Weekly Long;
Imax Corp (IMAX):  New Sell on Daily;
Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT): Strong uptrend.

 
Best looking charts for Selling
 

 

 

 

 

   

 

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with a trend-following trading system he’s been working on for years. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.

 


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Duel in the desert

Allan, thinking he’s getting the first whiff of the elusive sell signal--is he imagining it? - Ilene 

Duel in the desert

Seated nine rows behind the Phoenix net, I contemplated the subject of today’s Blog while fiercely observant and engaged in a great playoff game, a great hockey game and the great, great, back and forth, up and down, volatile second period when five goals were scored. 

How pathetic, or how dedicated, can I be to be thinking about the stock market in the middle of all the electrified intensity of a Stanley Cup playoff game involving my beloved, Detroit Red Wings?  

So I decided to lead with hockey today, testing my readers patience while at the same time rewarding those who read through the photo and opening paragraph to these words:   

SPX Daily Sell Signal
 
 
I sent out my analysis to the email list earlier today.  But this is not that complicated.  My Daily models, the ones that suggest intermediate term trends, are beginning to change.  Not all of them, not yet, but some of the more significant ones, including the one below, which is an inverse ETF for China stocks:
 
 FXP Daily Trend Model
 
You don’t have to bet the ranch here.  Nor do we have to assume Armageddon is at hand, plume of volcanic ash, or not.
 
 

But what is suggested is to walk the talk; when the models are flipping, govern yourselves accordingly. 

*****

Allan’s new newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with the trend-following trading system he’s been working on for years. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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BIDU Weekly

This is perhaps one of the best examples of Allan’s trend trading system.  Allan says that BIDU is an excellent trender and his system would have got you in sometime in January, though the last weekly signal was back in 2009. For you bears, his system should catch a trend reversal early.  (It’s hard not to look at that chart and anticipate a BID adieU moment, but maybe that’s just me.) Anyway, Allan’s system is easy to trade and you’d only be looking at signals on Monday morning. – Ilene 

BIDU Weekly – Update 

Courtesy of Allan

I wrote up the Weekly Trade Model of BIDU back in January.  It has turned into one of big success stories of the Trend Models:

 BIDU Weekly Trend Model

We knew in January that BIDU trended well and was a good stock to trade in a longer-term model.   Although they all don’t trend this well, having one or two that do, make up for any that don’t.  Another "Basket" idea in the making? 

 

And the market as a whole?  

Says Allan: Back to Trends.

Notwithstanding my personal trend line, the market’s trend has been up since mid February.

 

SPX Daily Trend Model

 

The beauty and simplicity of this directional model cannot be overstated.  The up-trend continues, as it will until it reverses.  Trade accordingly.

Allan just launched a newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” to go with the trading system he’s been working on for years. His trend-following method is chart-based and objective. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model newsletter and trading system, read this introductory article. – Ilene 


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Zero Hedge

Fed Funds Prints 2.30%, Breaching Target Range, As Libor Replacement Soars To "Remarkable" 5.25%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

If today's second consecutive repo was supposed to calm the stress in the secured lending market and ease the funding shortfall in the interbank market, it appears to have failed. Not only did O/N general collateral print at 2.25-2.60% after the repo operation, confirming that repo rates remain inexplicably elevated even though everyone who had funding needs supposedly met them thanks to the Fed, but in a more troubling development, the Effective Fed Funds rate printed at 2.30% at 9am this morning, breaching the Fed's target range of 2.0...



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The Technical Traders

SAFE ASSETS - A TRADING STRATEGY FOR UTILITIES, GOLD, AND BONDS

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his trading strategy for safer assets. While precious metals and bonds had a great run, the charts are showing the utilities could be the place to be in the short term. It’s important to note we are not saying the other safe havens are going to crash but it’s all about the time frame and playing the sector that could pop first.

LISTEN HERE NOW

...



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Phil's Favorites

How does the 'unidentified political object' that is the European Union really work?

 

How does the 'unidentified political object' that is the European Union really work?

European Union flags at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Sept. 11, 2019. AP/Virginia Mayo

Courtesy of Garret Martin, American University School of International Service

In the run-up to the 2016 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom, “Take our country back” became a rallying slogan for the campaign pushing for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks, Oil, and Bond Yields At Critical Bullish Breakout Tests!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s not often that three asset classes reach similar important trading points all at once.

But that’s exactly what’s happening right now with stocks, crude oil, and treasury bond yields.

And this is occurring on Federal Reserve day no less! Something has got to give.

In the chart above y...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • The MBA's index of mortgage application activity for the latest week is schedule for release at 7:00 a.m. ET.
  • Data on housing starts and permits for August will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on petroleum inventories in the U.S. is schedule for release at 10:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET.
  • The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic Data...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Is The Drone Strike a Black Swan?

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Pundits are calling yesterday’s drone strke a “black swan.” Can a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility, be a “black swan.”

According to Investopedia:

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

I seriously doubt that no one expected or could have predicted a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility.

Call Me A B...

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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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