Posts Tagged ‘trend’

Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

red flagCourtesy of John Nyaradi

Click here for a Special Report from Wall Street Sector Selector

Instratrader Indicators: 

Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead 

Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral 

Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish) 

Short Term Trend: Up 

Medium Term Trend: Down 

Long Term Trend: Down 

% of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 51%/ +23% 

% of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change:    60% /+51% 

Market Update:

Market closing price  % change 
DIA 10,322 +1.99%
SPY 1093 +2.3%
GLD $1194 +0.8%
Oil $79.10 +3.3%
Vix $24.63 -3.9%
Shanghai Comp 2562 +1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Commentary

Back to back manic days as the markets continue to struggle with poor macro economic news and mostly positive earnings. 

Today it was “risk on” as Microsoft, Caterpillar and UPS earnings were cheered while Amazon missed, housing reports and unemployment all were negative.  Chairman Bernanke continued his commentary on Capitol Hill but today, unlike yesterday, the markets rallied.  Jobless benefits were extended by Congress.  Tomorrow brings earnings reports from Ford and McDonalds and the long awaited “stress tests” designed to show the health of the European banks. 

For the weekend, we have a tropical storm heading for the BP well in the Gulf of Mexico and apparently the well be unattended and operations will stop.  There are all kinds of varying forecasts about what will happen that range from nothing to a methane rain over the Gulf Coast. 

1100 on the S&P remains formidable resistance as does the 200 Day Moving Average at 1113 just above today’s close.  Point and Figure charts remain on “sell” signals but close to changing.  This is a titanic struggle that will resolve one way or other over the coming days.

We remain in the “red flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Disclosure: psq, rwm, sh, skf, spy put

Read our weekend newsletter, Wall Street Sector Selector Review, for full market updates and analysis.


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The look of Dow

The look of Dow

Courtesy of Allan

The look of love is in your eyes
A look your smile can’t disguise
The look of love is saying so much more than just words could ever say
And what my heart has heard, well it takes my breath away

This is the 60_minute DJIA, still entrenched in a short-term SELL, despite market strength over the past couple of days.

Same holds true for the 240_minute DJIA, still well into SELL MODE.

 

I consider this the most important of the three charts.  It’s a Daily DJIA that suggests the decline of the past few weeks is unfinished.  Note that there are several hundred DJIA points to go before this Daily trend is even threatened.  That’s where the 60 & 240 minute charts come in, early warning systems which haven’t yet been triggered. 

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model,” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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Albert Edwards: Global economy to roll over in six to nine months’ time

Albert Edwards: Global economy to roll over in six to nine months’ time; bearish for shares

High angle view of Euro and Indian banknotes in a glass globe

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

SocGen’s Albert Edwards was out with a note today which is in line with my calls for a marked slowing of the economy toward the end of this year. He indicates that the rate of change in leading indicators in the real economy and in markets are rolling over right now. Edwards writes that this suggests softness in six-to-nine months (hat tip Scott).

I like his analysis because it depends on first derivatives or the rate of change rather than absolute levels which are misleading at turning points (see Has the increase in U.S. jobless claims peaked? from March 2009 for an example of first derivatives presaging the end of recession).  Remember, a recession begins from a cyclical peak in economic activity. So, the economy is rising until that point. Analysts looking at absolute levels only will miss the slowing in the rate of change.

Edwards writes:

I have had a few e-mails recently about some of the key leading indicators reaching new cyclical highs last week, and what this means for our view. To be sure, the latest weekly reading for the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) key lead indicator reached a 99 week high. That, at first sight, looks very bullish for the continuation of this cyclical upturn. However, as with all of these lead indicators, it is the rate of change that is important. The ECRI also report a smoothed annual change in their index. Last week that slipped to +12.5% yoy, which is a 37-week low (see chart below). Now one doesn’t want to be too armageddonish at this stage, but this is clear evidence that in 6-9 months time there will be a discernible slowdown in the economic recovery from its recent moderate pace.

chart

The same dynamic is true for the OECD and Confernece Board leading indicators as well – as it is for the change in analysts’ global EPS optimism, which is rolling over and leading the OECD indicator down.…
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Phil's Favorites

Why Everyone is Selling Their Tech Stocks

 

Why Everyone is Selling Their Tech Stocks

Courtesy of The Reformed Broker

5:30pm ET LIVE premiere today – Subscribe for the alert!

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including:

  • Tech Selloff – “To call this earnings season a blowout would be an understatement.”
  • Business Media – The WS...


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Zero Hedge

WTI Dips After Big Surprise Build In Gasoline Inventory

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Amid all the chaos in equity markets, oil managed to bounce back to modest gains on the day with WTI as a weaker dollar offset some concerns of a growing pile up of crude in the U.S. Gulf Coast as refineries there cut runs in response to the Colonial Pipeline shutdown.

Traders are expecting “a gradual resolution to the Colonial Pipeline shutdown,” according to Louise Dickson, an analyst at consultant Rystad Energy.

“The market is again looking to Asia, Covid-19 cases, and the next signals for oil demand outlook.&r...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:47:49 PM

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Comment: Bitcoin ambitions ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:48:34 PM

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Comment: PMI juiced back up ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:49:42 PM
...

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Digital Currencies

China's digital currency could be the future of money - but does it threaten global stability?

 

China’s digital currency could be the future of money – but does it threaten global stability?

The Ys and wherefores. AnaKins27

Courtesy of Daniel Broby, University of Strathclyde

China is making promising progress with testing its digital yuan currency. It has announced the success of a pilot in Suzhou City, near Shanghai in eastern China, where 181,000 consumers were given ¥55 (&poun...



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Biotech/COVID-19

US support for waiving COVID-19 vaccine patent rights puts pressure on drugmakers - but what would a waiver actually look like?

 

US support for waiving COVID-19 vaccine patent rights puts pressure on drugmakers – but what would a waiver actually look like?

A COVID-19 surge has pushed hospitals in India beyond their capacity. A stadium in New Delhi was being used as a makeshift ward on May 2, 2021. Getty Images

Courtesy of Dalindyebo Shabalala, University of Dayton

The U.S. and Europe are debating waiving patent rights for COVID-19 vaccines, a move that could allow more companies to produce the vaccine around the world. But it’s not as simpl...



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Politics

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

 

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

Over the past few decades, hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens have become part of the middle class. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

China’s large and impressive accomplishments over the past four decades have spurred scholars and politicians to debate whether the decline of the West – including the ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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