Posts Tagged ‘trend’

Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

red flagCourtesy of John Nyaradi

Click here for a Special Report from Wall Street Sector Selector

Instratrader Indicators: 

Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead 

Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral 

Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish) 

Short Term Trend: Up 

Medium Term Trend: Down 

Long Term Trend: Down 

% of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 51%/ +23% 

% of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change:    60% /+51% 

Market Update:

Market closing price  % change 
DIA 10,322 +1.99%
SPY 1093 +2.3%
GLD $1194 +0.8%
Oil $79.10 +3.3%
Vix $24.63 -3.9%
Shanghai Comp 2562 +1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Commentary

Back to back manic days as the markets continue to struggle with poor macro economic news and mostly positive earnings. 

Today it was “risk on” as Microsoft, Caterpillar and UPS earnings were cheered while Amazon missed, housing reports and unemployment all were negative.  Chairman Bernanke continued his commentary on Capitol Hill but today, unlike yesterday, the markets rallied.  Jobless benefits were extended by Congress.  Tomorrow brings earnings reports from Ford and McDonalds and the long awaited “stress tests” designed to show the health of the European banks. 

For the weekend, we have a tropical storm heading for the BP well in the Gulf of Mexico and apparently the well be unattended and operations will stop.  There are all kinds of varying forecasts about what will happen that range from nothing to a methane rain over the Gulf Coast. 

1100 on the S&P remains formidable resistance as does the 200 Day Moving Average at 1113 just above today’s close.  Point and Figure charts remain on “sell” signals but close to changing.  This is a titanic struggle that will resolve one way or other over the coming days.

We remain in the “red flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Disclosure: psq, rwm, sh, skf, spy put

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The look of Dow

The look of Dow

Courtesy of Allan

The look of love is in your eyes
A look your smile can’t disguise
The look of love is saying so much more than just words could ever say
And what my heart has heard, well it takes my breath away

This is the 60_minute DJIA, still entrenched in a short-term SELL, despite market strength over the past couple of days.

Same holds true for the 240_minute DJIA, still well into SELL MODE.

 

I consider this the most important of the three charts.  It’s a Daily DJIA that suggests the decline of the past few weeks is unfinished.  Note that there are several hundred DJIA points to go before this Daily trend is even threatened.  That’s where the 60 & 240 minute charts come in, early warning systems which haven’t yet been triggered. 

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model,” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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Albert Edwards: Global economy to roll over in six to nine months’ time

Albert Edwards: Global economy to roll over in six to nine months’ time; bearish for shares

High angle view of Euro and Indian banknotes in a glass globe

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

SocGen’s Albert Edwards was out with a note today which is in line with my calls for a marked slowing of the economy toward the end of this year. He indicates that the rate of change in leading indicators in the real economy and in markets are rolling over right now. Edwards writes that this suggests softness in six-to-nine months (hat tip Scott).

I like his analysis because it depends on first derivatives or the rate of change rather than absolute levels which are misleading at turning points (see Has the increase in U.S. jobless claims peaked? from March 2009 for an example of first derivatives presaging the end of recession).  Remember, a recession begins from a cyclical peak in economic activity. So, the economy is rising until that point. Analysts looking at absolute levels only will miss the slowing in the rate of change.

Edwards writes:

I have had a few e-mails recently about some of the key leading indicators reaching new cyclical highs last week, and what this means for our view. To be sure, the latest weekly reading for the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) key lead indicator reached a 99 week high. That, at first sight, looks very bullish for the continuation of this cyclical upturn. However, as with all of these lead indicators, it is the rate of change that is important. The ECRI also report a smoothed annual change in their index. Last week that slipped to +12.5% yoy, which is a 37-week low (see chart below). Now one doesn’t want to be too armageddonish at this stage, but this is clear evidence that in 6-9 months time there will be a discernible slowdown in the economic recovery from its recent moderate pace.

chart

The same dynamic is true for the OECD and Confernece Board leading indicators as well – as it is for the change in analysts’ global EPS optimism, which is rolling over and leading the OECD indicator down.…
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Phil's Favorites

Peloton IPO Guide... And Why It Makes No Sense

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Scott Willis via Grizzle.com

BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, Peloton is a gym membership pretending to be a tech company.

We fully admit the product is exciting and unique in the market, but Peloton still faces the same problem...



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Zero Hedge

Peloton IPO Guide... And Why It Makes No Sense

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Scott Willis via Grizzle.com

BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, Peloton is a gym membership pretending to be a tech company.

We fully admit the product is exciting and unique in the market, but Peloton still faces the same problem...



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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

more from Chart School

Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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