Posts Tagged ‘trend’

Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

red flagCourtesy of John Nyaradi

Click here for a Special Report from Wall Street Sector Selector

Instratrader Indicators: 

Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead 

Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral 

Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish) 

Short Term Trend: Up 

Medium Term Trend: Down 

Long Term Trend: Down 

% of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 51%/ +23% 

% of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change:    60% /+51% 

Market Update:

Market closing price  % change 
DIA 10,322 +1.99%
SPY 1093 +2.3%
GLD $1194 +0.8%
Oil $79.10 +3.3%
Vix $24.63 -3.9%
Shanghai Comp 2562 +1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Commentary

Back to back manic days as the markets continue to struggle with poor macro economic news and mostly positive earnings. 

Today it was “risk on” as Microsoft, Caterpillar and UPS earnings were cheered while Amazon missed, housing reports and unemployment all were negative.  Chairman Bernanke continued his commentary on Capitol Hill but today, unlike yesterday, the markets rallied.  Jobless benefits were extended by Congress.  Tomorrow brings earnings reports from Ford and McDonalds and the long awaited “stress tests” designed to show the health of the European banks. 

For the weekend, we have a tropical storm heading for the BP well in the Gulf of Mexico and apparently the well be unattended and operations will stop.  There are all kinds of varying forecasts about what will happen that range from nothing to a methane rain over the Gulf Coast. 

1100 on the S&P remains formidable resistance as does the 200 Day Moving Average at 1113 just above today’s close.  Point and Figure charts remain on “sell” signals but close to changing.  This is a titanic struggle that will resolve one way or other over the coming days.

We remain in the “red flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Disclosure: psq, rwm, sh, skf, spy put

Read our weekend newsletter, Wall Street Sector Selector Review, for full market updates and analysis.


Tags: , , , , , ,




The look of Dow

The look of Dow

Courtesy of Allan

The look of love is in your eyes
A look your smile can’t disguise
The look of love is saying so much more than just words could ever say
And what my heart has heard, well it takes my breath away

This is the 60_minute DJIA, still entrenched in a short-term SELL, despite market strength over the past couple of days.

Same holds true for the 240_minute DJIA, still well into SELL MODE.

 

I consider this the most important of the three charts.  It’s a Daily DJIA that suggests the decline of the past few weeks is unfinished.  Note that there are several hundred DJIA points to go before this Daily trend is even threatened.  That’s where the 60 & 240 minute charts come in, early warning systems which haven’t yet been triggered. 

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model,” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


Tags: , , ,




Albert Edwards: Global economy to roll over in six to nine months’ time

Albert Edwards: Global economy to roll over in six to nine months’ time; bearish for shares

High angle view of Euro and Indian banknotes in a glass globe

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

SocGen’s Albert Edwards was out with a note today which is in line with my calls for a marked slowing of the economy toward the end of this year. He indicates that the rate of change in leading indicators in the real economy and in markets are rolling over right now. Edwards writes that this suggests softness in six-to-nine months (hat tip Scott).

I like his analysis because it depends on first derivatives or the rate of change rather than absolute levels which are misleading at turning points (see Has the increase in U.S. jobless claims peaked? from March 2009 for an example of first derivatives presaging the end of recession).  Remember, a recession begins from a cyclical peak in economic activity. So, the economy is rising until that point. Analysts looking at absolute levels only will miss the slowing in the rate of change.

Edwards writes:

I have had a few e-mails recently about some of the key leading indicators reaching new cyclical highs last week, and what this means for our view. To be sure, the latest weekly reading for the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) key lead indicator reached a 99 week high. That, at first sight, looks very bullish for the continuation of this cyclical upturn. However, as with all of these lead indicators, it is the rate of change that is important. The ECRI also report a smoothed annual change in their index. Last week that slipped to +12.5% yoy, which is a 37-week low (see chart below). Now one doesn’t want to be too armageddonish at this stage, but this is clear evidence that in 6-9 months time there will be a discernible slowdown in the economic recovery from its recent moderate pace.

chart

The same dynamic is true for the OECD and Confernece Board leading indicators as well – as it is for the change in analysts’ global EPS optimism, which is rolling over and leading the OECD indicator down.…
continue reading


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Insider Scoop

9 Technology Stocks Moving In Wednesday's After-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers

Teradyne, Inc. (NASDAQ:TER) shares increased by 11.6% to $82.10 during Wednesday's after-market session. The most recent rating by Evercore ISI Group, on January 13, is at Outperform, with a price target of $85.00.

PTC, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTC) shares rose 8.1% to $86.43. The most recent rating by Barclays, on November 04, is at Overweight, with a price target of $81.00.

Akoustis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Zero Hedge

China Quarantines City Of 11 Million As Hong Kong Confirms Second Case Of Coronavirus

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update 6 (1530ET): Hong Kong has reportedly confirmed a second case of coronavirus.

Hong Kong authorities report a second confirmed case of coronavirus. RTHK

— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) January 22, 2020

More details to come...

* * *

Update 5 (1500ET): After praising all of China's efforts to contain the outbreak, the WHO Director General an...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

"It Just Keeps Getting Crazier" - Options Speculation Reaches Record High

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Despite the fact that the bond market refuses to sell-off (as it should in a well-behaved market sending stocks to record-er and record-er highs each and every day), the levered long crowd has never been more "all-in" than they are right now.

While stocks are at record highs, bond yields are plumbing 2 month lows...

Source: Bloomberg

However, there are some notable anomalies in the VIX term structure that could become problematic in the next few days. As contracts expire, so the very steep term structure (fueling lots of short-vol-tilted carry trades) will flatten...

...



more from Ilene

The Technical Traders

TRADING STRATEGIES FOR GDXJ, SPY, BONDS, AND NATURAL GAS

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen joins me today to shares his trading strategy for 4 different markets. While most of these markets are not correlated he has reasons for why he is long in each. Pick and choose where you want to deploy your capital.

Get Chris’ Trade Signals Today – Click Here

...

more from Tech. Traders

Kimble Charting Solutions

Hang Seng Index Double Topping At 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Hang Seng Index be “Double Topping” at its 2007 highs? Possible, yet not proven!

The Hang Seng Index attempted to break above its 2007 highs at (1), only to see a key reversal pattern take place the following month.

After the reversal pattern, the index has created a series of lower highs, just below falling resistance.

So far this month, the index is attempting to break above falling resistance, where it could be created a bearish reversal monthly pattern at (2).

What would it take to prove that a double top was i...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



more from Our Members

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>