Posts Tagged ‘TRV’

Travelers Put Options Active

TRV – Travelers Companies, Inc. – Shares in insurance company Travelers are slightly lower on Thursday morning, down 0.70% at $85.48 as of 11:05 a.m. ET, after the stock was downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ with a 12-month target price of $72.00 at Guggenheim Securities.

Options changing hands on TRV in the early going suggest one or more traders are bracing for the price of the underlying to extend losses ahead of the weekend. It looks like options traders picked up more than 1,400 of the Oct $85 strike puts at an average premium of $0.42 apiece. The puts may be profitable at expiration this week if shares in TRV decline another 1.05% from the current price of $85.48 to breach the average breakeven point on the downside at $84.58.

Overall options volume on Travelers Cos. Is hovering just below 2,500 contracts as of the time of this writing, which is roughly three times the stock’s average daily options volume of around 740 contracts. Travelers is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on Tuesday. 

TMO – Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. – Options on the provider of technology and products for pharmaceutical, biotech and science research companies are more active than usual today, with volume topping 5,500 contracts in the first hour of trading versus the stock’s average daily options volume of around 1,200 contracts. Shares in the name are up 1.25% on the session at $94.67 as of 10:50 a.m. in New York trading.

The most traded contracts on…
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Diageo Options In Play Ahead Of Earnings


Today’s tickers: DEO, TRV & TSS

DEO - Diageo PLC – A burst of options activity on the distributor of premium alcohol brands near the start of a shortened U.S. trading week pushed Diageo onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning. Call and put buying on the name suggests one or more traders are positioning for volatility in the price of DEO shares ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report on January 31st. Shares in Diageo are currently down 0.90% on the session to stand at $116.61 as of 10:55 a.m. ET in New York trading. Upside call buyers looking for shares in the name rise substantially during the next few weeks snapped up more than 580 calls at the Feb. $120 strike for an average premium of $0.70 apiece. Traders long the $120 calls stand ready to profit at expiration next month should DEO shares rally 3.5% to top $120.70. February expiry put options are changing hands on Diageo today, as well. Traders bracing for shares in the distributor of Johnnie Walker to potentially decline in the weeks ahead picked up around 340 puts at the Feb. $115 strike and some 540 puts at the Feb. $110 strike at average premiums of $1.35 and $0.45 apiece, respectively. Buyers of the $110 strike puts are positioned to profit in the event of a more than 6.0% dip in the price of the underlying to $109.55 by February expiration.

TRV - Travelers Companies, Inc. – Shares in the insurer increased the most in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday morning, rallying nearly 5% to a new all-time high of $80.00, after the company posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell. TRV’s shares are currently off their highest level of the session, up 2.6% at $78.28 as of 10:50 a.m. ET. Trading traffic in February expiry calls in the early going suggests some traders are positioning for Travelers’ shares to extend gains in the near term. Bullish strategists appear to have purchased upwards of 325 calls at the Feb. $80 strike for…
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Upside Call Buyers Look For Further Gains In Travelers


Today’s tickers: TRV, ETH & DGX

TRV - The Travelers Companies, Inc. – The provider of commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services is the biggest gainer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today, with shares up as much as 4.65% to hit a record high of $74.70, after the company reported third-quarter profits that handily beat average analyst expectations. The blowout earnings release sparked fresh bullish positioning in Travelers Cos. options this morning as some traders look for shares in the insurer to extend gains. Meanwhile, options players that snapped up TRV calls on Wednesday, prior to the earnings report, are enjoying sizable paper profits on those positions. Traders anticipating higher-highs for TRV shares by the end of this week picked up around 1,100 calls at the Oct. $75 strike for an average premium of $0.22 apiece. These contracts have one full trading day remaining until expiration, and may be profitable should shares in TRV settle above the average breakeven price of $75.22 by end of day Friday. Upside call buying spread to the November expiry options where $75 and $77.5 strike calls are most active. Traders purchased around 600 calls at each strike in the first half of the session for average premiums of $0.95 and $0.30 apiece, respectively, and may profit at November expiration in the event that TRV shares settle above breakeven prices at $75.95 and $77.80. Paper profits on positions initiated Wednesday afternoon are available for the buyer or buyers of 800 of the Oct. $72.5 strike call at an average premium of $0.15 apiece. The now deep in-the-money $72.5 strike call currently displays a last-traded price of $1.70 per contract, an 11-fold overnight-increase in the value of those options. Finally, some strategists appear to be purchasing downside protection, notably the Nov. $72.5 and $75 strike put, perhaps to lock in gains on the impressive 25% increase in Travelers shares since June.

ETH - Ethan Allen
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Thrill is Gone Thursday – Rally Tired or Just Resting?

EU leaders are meeting in Brussels today and tomorrow

For anyone who's been paying attention for the last two years – that's usually not a good thing and, as we noted yesterday, it was a strong Euro and a weak Dollar that was driving our little rally.  The Dollar bottomed out at 79 and the Euro topped out at $1.314 and the Euro's strength sent the Yen back up to 79.30 to the Dollar (weaker) and that led to a 2% Nikkei rally last night.  As you can see from the chart on the right, the S&P for the week is 1% behind UK and Germany and 2.5% behind France and Italy (+4%) and Spain (+7%) – so we have a lot of catching up to do if this rally is real and sustainable

Still, I sent out an Alert to Members early this morning noting that the Global Markets were holding up well as of 6am and that was encouraging.  Yesterday we discussed taking advantage of the run-up in the Russell to make a TZA hedge to lock in some of our gains (see main post) but we still haven't covered XLF (target $16.50 – see Dave Fry's chart) and we're still bullish on AAPL as well.  We cashed that ISRG play, as planned for $9 on the spreads (200x = $1,800), spending .30 x 200 ($60) to buy back the callers so that, with the $200 we were paid to take the position is just short of our $2,000 goal at net $1,960 – not bad for a day's "work".  

In Member Chat this morning, we discussed GOOG's outlook for earnings this evening and decided they were more likely topping than popping so we have that risk to the Nasdaq for tomorrow.  IBM was an 80-point drag on the Dow yesterday but it did manage to finish flat and advancers led decliners on the NYSE by 2:1 so the conditions are still there for a rally and hopefully what we have here a a pause that refreshes and not a triple top from the mid-September highs.  

The Nasdaq and the Russell are, in fact, in downtrending channels and, for the Nasdaq, their fate rests on GOOG tonight and AAPL next Thursday – but it's still a long way back to the highs at 3,200.  

As you can see from the
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Monday Market Movement – Trying to Get Bullish

We are still trying to get more bullish.

Over the weekend we set a new, higher set of levels for our Big Chart on the assumption that our breakout levels hold up and our new Must Hold lines become Dow 13,600 (not there yet), S&P 1,360, Nasdaq 3,000, NYSE 8,000 and Russell 800, which means it's now up to the Dow and Nasdaq to continue to show leadership if we're going to be having a rally good enough to get us to add our next 10 bullish plays.

I already added 2 aggressive upside trade ideas on XLF and SPY in the weekend post and last week we already looked at WFR, X, BAC, GLW, BBY, CHK, AAPL, AA, and BA but we also added a new Long Put List (Members Only), which had 19 stocks that we thought were good downside horses to ride if, per chance, we fail to hold 3 of our 5 breakout levels.  

It shouldn't be too much to ask – IF this is a real bull market.  We've been extremely skeptical up to this point and, Fundamentally, I still have my doubts but Technically, we can't keep fighting the tape so were drawing a line in the sand for Mr. Market to cross and, if it does so, we're happy to play along.  If it fails to do so, however, well – we've already made those bets!  

Our aggressive take on the Dow is the result of analyzing the 5 components that were replaced since the crash with MO and HON thrown out for BAC and CVX in Feb of 2008, AIG replaced by KFT in Sept 2008 and C and GM replaced by CSCO and TRV in June 2009, causing a massive distortion in the index, meaning 16,000 is the old 15,000, possibly even lower:  

The Nasdaq is similarly distorted by AAPL, who are up 500% since 2009 and when a stock that is 11.5% of an index is up 500%, that stock alone causes the index to go up 57.5%, which is why we now call it the AAPLdaq.  The AAPLdaq itself is "only" up 100%, which means the ENTIRE rest of the index is lagging with a 42.5% contribution – those who tell you that tech is somehow loved again are fooling themselves
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Tuesday – Topping Out or Just Pinning the Fed?

Tough call today

The Dollar bounced off 79.75 this morning, nothing to crow about for Dollar bulls as the Euro remains just over the critical $1.30 mark and the Pound is solidly over $1.55 for the moment.  

You could say it's a bearish sign that the Dow and the NYSE stopped dead at our breakout levels but that's to be expected on a first attempt at breaking out – even if they have already attempted the same move back in late October, when the Dow was 5% lower in it's test and the NYSE was testing the same line (7,866).  

Our broadest market index is the one that's holding everyone back as what little volume there has been in this rally has been fairly narrowly focused on certain leaders.  Now a pessimist might say that this is a reflection of the blatant manipulation of the indexes in which certain Banksters place buys on stocks that have disproportionate positive effects on the junior indexes in order to fool retail traders into believing there is a rally while the Banksters drive the VIX down to multi-year lows, dump all their stocks on the bagholders and prepare to cash in by crashing the markets on a major event like tomorrow's FOMC Rate Decision which is, in fact, very unlikely to have any language specific to the QE3 that has been promised by the MSM since Thanksgiving.  

SPY DAILY An optimist would say – well, you can read almost any MSM site for that.  It's lonely at the top of the range when you are bearish, one by one the other bears capitulate and soon you are there all by yourself with your shorts – your lovely, lovely, cheap shorts!  The Dow shot up yesterday to just over the 12,749 breakout line we have as the tippy top of the range on our Big Chart so of course I called for DIA puts in Member Chat.  The DIA Feb $123 puts, which came in around .75 and finished the day not much higher at .78 after topping out at .95.  Ranges usually hold – if you're not going to have conviction at the very top of a range to short – when will you?  For one thing – you have a very good stop line to watch!

As noted by Dave Fry in his SPY chart, the bulls have engineered their golden cross…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Nasdaq 2,603 Edition

Watch the Nasdaq.

That's the index we need to catch up to the Dow now that the S&P is halfway to goal at 1,297 (from our Must Hold line at 1,235).  The Dow is in La La Land, led by MCD (up 31%), IBM (up 26%), PFE (up 24%), HD (up 20%) and KFT (up 20%) while this year's Dogs of the Dow are BAC (down 59%), AA (down 43%), HPQ (down 39%)  and JPM (down 22%).  

While the losers may seem to outweigh the winners, that's not how it works as the Dow is price-weighted so BAC dropping from $14 to $5.50 "only" costs the Dow about 68 points (roughly 8 points for each Dollar), IBMs rise from $145 to $185 added a whopping 320 points.

So a 26% rise in one component and a 59% drop in another nets out to a gain of 252 points!  At the beginning of the year, they had roughly the same market cap ($150Bn) but IBM has gained $70Bn and BAC has lost $100Bn which, of course, translates into a net gain of 2% on the entire Dow – BECAUSE IT IS THE STUPIDEST INDEX ON EARTH!  

Our Members, of course, know this.  I wrote "DJIA: The Most Useless, Overused Tool on the Planet" back in 2006, when GM was still part of the Dow so no need to rehash it all here other than to mention the fact that a 30-component index has made 5 substitutions in the 5 years since I wrote that article only serve to highlight how ridiculous it is to use the Dow to draw long-term conclusions.  The Dow is manipulated because it's easy to and Uncle Rupert sits with the other Masters of the Universe to decide how to use this headline tool to make things look as good as possible in the US markets.  


That's why CSCO and TRV replaced C and GM in June of 2009.  C was at $28.80 and is down a bit, GM went BK from $45 (which would have been a 360-point loss in the Dow) while CSCO was disappointing but essentially flat and TRV is up $20, adding another 160 points so a 520-point swing (5%) on those substitutions alone.  In September
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Which Way Wednesday: Through the Roof or Smashed into a Thousand Pieces?


GRANDPA JOE: But this roof is made of glass. It’ll shatter into a thousand pieces. We’ll be cut to ribbons!


Is today going to be the day?  After pressing against our breakout levels for a week, today do we should finally have the gas to get over the top or will our Must Hold levels keep acting like a solid barrier?  Oddly enough, I was asking the same question on August 30th, when I asked if we were "Breaking Higher or Dressing Windows?"   My comment from that morning works for today as well:  

No way to slow down.  That line from Tull’s "Locamotive Breath" keeps playing in my head as I look at these rumor-driven markets and contemplate that we MUST keep going higher – or we will fall.  On the whole, that’s not generally a winning long-term investing premise BUT – it does so happen to be the entire principal on which space travel is based so let’s not discount it entirely.   

Willy Wonka understood stock market physics, there had to be enough power to get through that overhead resistance or it was going to be a very painful test of the top (like the one we had in August).  Since our July dip, we’ve come back for another try at our Must Hold lines 4 times but the volume has been substantially lower than it was in July, leading us to believe it is only TradeBots, and not Oompa Loompas, who are buying this market. 

Can TradeBots alone give
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The Worst-Case Scenario: Getting Real With Global GDP!


That is the per capita average GDP for the 6Bn ape-like creatures on this planet who have pockets and purses.  Of the still hairy and pocketless apes, there are only about 1M left and they are mainly prisoners so we won’t be worrying about them but it would be nice to consider the plight of our ancestors once in a while…  Anyway, so 6Bn of us fill in those last 3 images in the planetary labor pool with the vast majority of us STILL FARMING and, of course, a select group of us are still hunting and gathering and contributing very little to the GDP

None of our problems are new – as noted in this 2005 cartoon:

The United States of America with it’s highly evolved population of shopoholics has a per capita GDP of $46,381 – VERY IMPRESSIVE but we rank 6th!  Brunei does a little better than we do and Singapore is up at $50,523 (so let’s hear it for corporal punishment) and Norway (one of my top choices of countries to flee to when it all hits the fan) is at $52,561 but Luxembourgh ($78,395 – banking) and Qatar ($83,841 – oil) simply trounce us in earnings power per person.  For those of you who like to think Capitalism is all about keeping score – they must be better than you because they make more money, right?

Below the US, per capita GDP drops off fairly quickly.  Rounding out the top 10 are Switzerland ($43,007 – watches and more bankers), Hong Kong ($42,748 – don’t tell China!), Netherlands ($39,938 – legal drugs!), Ireland ($39,468 – free beer when on wellfare!) and Australia ($38,911 – beer comes in oil cans plus gigantic bouncing rats).  20th on the list is Germany at $34,212, Greece is 25th at $29,882 (but not for long), 30th is South Korea at $27,978, 40th is Slovakia at $21,245.  Lithuania comes in at 50 with $16,542 (1 ahead of Russia) and it steadies out there with emerging market star Brazil in 75th place with $10,514 and, keep in mind – that is where you FINALLY get to the average leverl of economic activity for the world. 

Another BRIC in the global wall is mighty China, with a per capita GDP of $6,567 for each of their 1.2Bn persons and India’s Billion people average out at less than half of that, at $2,941, ranking 128th and still ahead of 53…
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Free Money Thursday – 130 S&P New Highs Can’t Be Wrong!

130 S&P 500 companies hit 52-week highs yesterday.

Things must be even better than I thought in yesterday's post and there has been a conga line of pom-pom waving analysts on GE/CNBC this morning telling us how UNDER valued everything is because we just don't see the BIG PICTURE.  As Bespoke notes in their chart of the S&P and it's new highs, you want to see more and more stocks hitting new highs to sustain a rally but my question is – with the market now at 17-month highs and making new highs every day – what's up with the other 370 stocks? 

In an ordinary market, I wouldn't question it but this is not an ordinary market.  52 weeks ago we were at 666 on the S&P and stocks were making DECADE lows.  Here we are with the index up almost 80% off that bottom and we can't pull a lousy 52-week high from 2/3 of the index???  We'll be keeping an eye on this indicator to see how things pan out but notice when the market fell – there were no doubts, 80% of the stocks made 52-week lows last fall – not THAT'S a sell-off.  That's the kind of dramatic numbers you expect to see in a dramatic market move – not this wimpy 40% stuff – let's see some conviction people!

AAPL is convicted – they are up 191% from their lows and AAPL is 15% of the Nasdaq so, all by themselves, AAPL has accounted for 28% of the Nasdaq's move from 1,265 to 2,389 (89%).  TRV is also moving with conviction, up 54% since March and adding 160 much-needed points to the Dow, a great swap for C, who would have only added about 24 had they remained in the index.  CSCO replaced GM (because they are soooooo similar) and they too have been a great trade for the Dow, up 100% off the March lows and slapping 104 bonus points on the index. 

Ah, now we see how our industrials can do so well despite all the unemployment and lower cap utilization and lack of demand and high commodity input costs – we just shuffle the deck until we find a set of cards that work!   Even so, as I've pointed out this week, the Dow has been lagging the Nasdaq
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Phil's Favorites

John Mauldin: Trade Wars Could Trigger "The Next Great Depression"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Last week on Erik Townsend's Macrovoices podcast, Jim Grant, storied credit investor and founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, explained the reasoning behind his call that the great secular bond bear market actually began in the aftermath of the UK's Brexit vote during the summer of 2016 - when Treasury yields touched their all-time lows.

Surprisingly, Grant's call isn't rooted in the bold-faced absurdity of Italian junk bonds trading with a zero-handle (although that's certainly part of it). Rather, Grant explained, a historical analysis reveals that bond yields fluctuate in broad-based multi-generation cycles of different lengths. And given the carte blanche allotted to econo...

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Zero Hedge

John Mauldin: Trade Wars Could Trigger "The Next Great Depression"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Last week on Erik Townsend's Macrovoices podcast, Jim Grant, storied credit investor and founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, explained the reasoning behind his call that the great secular bond bear market actually began in the aftermath of the UK's Brexit vote during the summer of 2016 - when Treasury yields touched their all-time lows.

Surprisingly, Grant's call isn't rooted in the bold-faced absurdity of Italian junk bonds trading with a zero-handle (although that's certainly part of it). Rather, Grant explained, a historical analysis reveals that bond yields fluctuate in broad-based multi-generation cycles of different lengths. And given the carte blanche allotted to econo...

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Digital Currencies

Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Courtesy of Anwar Halari, The Open University

If you haven’t already heard of Bitcoin, you either haven’t been paying attention or you’re a time traveller who just touched down in 2018. Because by now, most of us will have heard of Bitcoin and some of us have even jumped on the bandwagon, investing in cryptocurrencies.

But despite its popularity, many people still don’t understand the technology that underlines it: blockchain. In...

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Insider Scoop

Wendy's 'Intriguing' 2020 Outlook Overshadowed By Valuation Concerns, Oppenheimer Says

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WEN Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For March 20, 2018 Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For March 8, 2018 ... more from Insider

Chart School

Bears Take Control

Courtesy of Declan.

More decisive action from bears today as markets lose support.  The S&P undercut the rising trendline and 20-day plus 50-day MAs in a move which looks like it could develop into a test of the February spike low and the 200-day MA again; support at 2,695 is looking critical here. Aggressive traders could look to buy at these levels but confidence in this holding would not be high.

The Dow also saw its 'bear flag' / consolidation triangle resolve to the downside. The two positives were the relatively light volume and the ...

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Peter Thiel: Need To Rethink Tariffs In Light Of Trade Deficit With China; SF Sucks, Bitcoin Rocks

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel in a wide-ranging interview on President Trump’s trade tariffs, China’s economy, technology regulations and his outlook for bitcoin.


Check out our H2 hedge fund letters here.

Peter Thiel: Need To Rethink Tariffs In Light Of Trade Deficit With China

Peter Thiel On Leaving Silicon Valley For Los Angeles

Billionaire investor Peter Thiel argues Silicon Valley is is a ‘totalitarian place’ where people are not allowed to have dissenting views.


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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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