Posts Tagged ‘Uncertainty’

Small Businesses are Not Hiring – Why Should They?

Small Businesses are Not Hiring – Why Should They?

Courtesy of Mish 

Hand holding out empty pocket

In response to Creating Jobs Carries a Punishing Price, an article about Mr. Fleischer, president of Bogen Communications Inc. and why he is not hiring, I received an interesting email from "David" a reader who disagrees with Mr. Fleischer’s stated reasons for not hiring.

One of the items mentioned by Mr. Fleischer and challenged by "David" is the idea that corporations are sitting on cash. On this score, "David" is correct. I have also debunked the idea that corporations are sitting in cash (Please see Are Corporations Sitting on Piles of Cash?)

"David" also challenged Mr. Fleischer’s math on healthcare.

However, such arguments miss the entire point of the post.

Actions Matter!

It does not matter one iota if Mr. Fleischer is wrong about corporate sideline cash or anything else. What matters is Mr. Fleischer thinks he has sufficient reasons not to hire.

On that score, I believe Mr. Fleischer is correct. There are numerous good reasons to not hire.

Businesses have a legitimate worry about health care costs, rising taxes, and other artifacts of Obama’s legislation.

On the consumer side, this is not a typical recession. This is a credit bust recession with consumers still deleveraging. With savings deposits yielding close to 0% and with credit card rates over 20%, common sense dictates consumers pay down bills rather than make new purchases. The housing bubble has burst and boomers are headed into retirement with insufficient savings.

Given all the economic uncertainties, consumers are reacting in a rational manner by not spending. In turn, businesses have consistently cited lack of customers as one reason to not hire.

Pertinent Facts

That Mr. Fleischer fails to articulate reasons that others agree with is irrelevant. The pertinent fact is he is not hiring.

More importantly, numerous other small business owners think and act just like Mr. Fleischer. How do we know? Simple …

What Can Be Done?

For my thoughts on what to do about small business hiring, please…
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Get An Emotional Margin of Safety

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Get An Emotional Margin of Safety

emotional investing, stock market

Courtesy of Tim of The Psy-Fi Blog

Businesslike Investment

Warren Buffett states, quite frequently, that the most important investment statement ever made was that of his mentor, the father of value investing, Ben Graham:

"Investment is at its most intelligent when it is most businesslike"

Now if you’ve ever wondered exactly what that means you’re not alone. But it’s really one of the most important business lessons any of us can ever learn. It encapsulates the idea that investment isn’t about individual subjective feelings but about general objective rationale. To be good investors we need to learn to control our emotions. Unfortunately it’s got a bit more difficult since Graham first wrote those words.

Unemotional Investment

We find Graham’s statement difficult to understand because we don’t understand Graham’s – or Buffett’s – viewpoint. Although both men are amongst the best communicators the world of top-class investment has ever thrown up they still sit in the rarefied atmosphere of that elite group of investors who are able to step away from their own emotions when they come to investing.

By “businesslike” Graham meant “unemotional”. At the root of all good investment, he believed, was a focus on the underlying numbers. Graham, far more so than Buffett, was focused on the investment ratios and balance sheets of his investments. To be “businesslike” the individual investor needs to ruthlessly focused on the numbers, not the stories associated with them. Thus Graham and Buffett aim to remove the behavioural biases that affect most investors.

Of course, there’s no doubt that there are a select group of people who are more easily able to ignore the impact of group psychology than the rest of us. It’s possible – even probable – that the great investors of the world are simply psychologically unusual people who are capable of ignoring the impact of normal behavioural biases. These people are so rare that it would be interesting to take one of them and wire up their brain to a computer to see whether their responses are different from that of normal humans. Only trouble is they’re so rich that they can employ really big bodyguards and generally reckon their brains are their own concern.

Emotionless Delusions

Antonio Damasio has conducted lots of research
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Phil's Favorites

Trump craves good press from the 'fake news' media - just look at his White House newsletter

 

Trump craves good press from the 'fake news' media – just look at his White House newsletter

Courtesy of Joseph Graf, American University School of Communication

Mainstream press coverage of President Trump has been unfavorable. Thomas Patterson found that 80 percent of stories in the first 100 days of the administration were negative in tone.

The president has attacked the media as “fake news” and journalists as “the enemy of the American people.”

The president’s anti-press assaults are so...



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Biotech

Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Nanomedicine could scupper the need for TB patients to take multiple daily tablets with toxic side effects. Daniel Irungu/EPA

Courtesy of Sarah D'Souza, University of the Western Cape and Admire Dube, University of the Western Cape

Tuberculosis is one of the world’s ...



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ValueWalk

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins: Working To Engage Multi-Cloud On All Fronts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Transcript: Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins Speaks with CNBC’s Jim Cramer Today

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

The following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins and CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Squawk on the Street” (M-F 9AM – 11AM) today, Thursday, August 16. The following are links to video of the interview on CNBC.com:

Cisco CEO: We are working to engage multi-cloud on all fronts

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins on earnings and...

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Zero Hedge

Turkey Rules Out Capital Controls As Germany Says IMF Bailout "Would Be Helpful"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

During this morning's conference call organized by Citi, HSBC and other banks with "thousands"  of investors, Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak - the Jared Kushner of Turkey  - eased nerves when in an attempt to bolster confidence, said that capital controls were ruled out as a policy option for Turkey. As a reminder, capital controls are widely seen as the &...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Interest Rates Peaking? Watch The Copper/Gold Ratio!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

If you spend time researching market relationships you can better understand money flows, rotation, and reasons why money flows rotate. This can be very helpful in identifying trend changes as well.

Today, we’ll look at the relationship between 10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield (INDEXCBOE: TNX) and the ratio of Copper (NYSEARCA: JJC) to Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Interest Rates Peaking?

Looking at the chart below, we can see that treasury yields and the Copper/Gold ratio tend to peak and bottom together – this has occurred several times over the past 5 years.

Currently, the 10 Year Yield is forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern (in red) at the same time that the Copper/Gold ratio is testing important support...



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Insider Scoop

Argus Upgrades Lululemon On Multiple Growth Levers

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related LULU Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For August 16, 2018 3 Retailers Jim Cramer Says Are Winners In A Volatile Sector...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Update - 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Demand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts
 


 

Main Chart in video



 

Sure fundamentals...



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Digital Currencies

What is a blockchain token?

 

What is a blockchain token?

What’s this digital token good for, anyway? knipsdesign/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

People are just becoming acquainted with the idea of digital money in the form of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, where transactions are recorded on a secure distributed database called a blockchain. And now along comes a new concept: the blockchain-based token, which I’ve been following as a blockchain researcher a...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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