Posts Tagged ‘U.S. Census bureau’

Retail Sales Rise .4% from July – How Far to Pre-recession Levels? Where to from Here?

Retail Sales Rise .4% from July – How Far to Pre-recession Levels? Where to from Here?

Courtesy of Mish 

Inquiring minds are investigating the Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for August 2010, noting the discrepancy between what is reported and reality.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 3.6 percent above August 2009.

Total sales for the June through August 2010 period were up 4.7 percent from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2010 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent to +0.3 percent .

Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent from July 2010, and 3.7 percent above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 10.5 percent from August 2009 and gasoline stations sales were up 9.6 percent from last year.

As typical, Calculated Risk has some nice charts of the data.

Calculated Risk writes "This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 8.4% from the bottom, but still off 4.3% from the pre-recession peak."

Although that is what the data says, I don’t buy it. If retail sales were back to within 4.3% of the pre-recession peak, sales tax collections would be back towards the pre-recession peak, if not exceeding the pre-recession peak.

Why might they exceed the peak? Because of numerous state sales tax hikes.

The Slow Rebound – Very Slow

September 02, 2010: State Tax Revenues Slowly Rebound, But … 

The Nelson Rockefeller Institute reports State Tax Revenues Are Slowly Rebounding. However, as always, the devil is in the details. Let’s take a look.

Preliminary tax collection data for the April-June quarter of 2010 show improvement in overall state tax collections as well as for personal income tax and sales tax revenue. However, revenue collections remain significantly below peak levels and are still weak in a number of states.

The Rockefeller Institute’s compilation of data from 47 early reporting states shows collections from major tax sources increased by 2.2 percent in nominal terms compared to the second quarter of 2009, but was 17.2 percent below the same period two years ago.

State Tax Collections


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Wholesale Inventories: Marijuana Plants

Wholesale Inventories: Marijuana Plants 

smoking pot, marijuana inventories upCourtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

The green shoots are in fact marijuana plants and the media has been smoking them.

Month/over/month inventories down 1.7%, annual y/o/y down 10.8%.

Durables down 1.5%, annual down 10.4%.

I am especially interested in the internals of this report, particularly, paper goods as these are a good indicator of packaging demand, along with metals (industrial demand.)

Those numbers are just plain nasty: Paper was down 2.7% m/o/m while metals were down 6.2% m/o/m.

The sales numbers weren’t any better:

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that June 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $313.1 billion, up 0.4 percent (+/-0.7%)* from the revised May level, but were down 21.0 percent (+/-1.4%) from the June 2008 level.

Yowza.

Note the sampling error on the monthlies – we’re inside the uncertainty, which means that basically the number was flat.  But the annual change is just plain nasty, given that we were well into the recession (according to the NBER) last summer, and as such were well down the demand curve.

There’s nothing in this report to indicate that "the recession is easing."

*****

Source:  MONTHLY WHOLESALE TRADE: SALES AND INVENTORIES, JUNE 2009

 


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Phil's Favorites

Designed to deceive: How gambling distorts reality and hooks your brain

 

Designed to deceive: How gambling distorts reality and hooks your brain

The longer they keep you plugged in to a game, the better it is for the house. AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Courtesy of Mike Robinson, Wesleyan University

To call gambling a “game of chance” evokes fun, random luck and a sense of collective engagement. These playful connotations may be part of why almost 80 percent of American adults gamble at some point in their lifetime. When I ask my psychology students why they think people gamble,...



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Zero Hedge

Citi Ready To Replace "Tens Of Thousands" Of Call-Center Workers With Robots

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Citigroup is apparently preparing to follow through on its promise it shed as many as 20,000 operations and technology positions, according to an interview with CEO Mike Corbat that was published Tuesday in the Financial Times.

...



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ValueWalk

Current Quarterly Earnings Forecasts Accentuate The Negative

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In revising their forecasts of companies’ current quarterly earnings, analysts accentuate the negative, new research finds

3844328 / PixabayWidely available earnings forecasts not as informative as many think

It may be the most persistent criticism leveled against stock analysts – excessive optimism, what is widely perceived to be a tendency to be more upbeat about the companies they cover than the facts...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper About To Hurdle Important Breakout Level?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Doc Copper often times sends important messages, to the global economy, reflecting growth or lack thereof. An important price test is currently in play for Ole Doc Copper!

The long-term trend for Copper remains up, as it has created a series of higher lows for the past 18-years along line (1). Over the past few months, Copper could be creating a double bottom just above this long-term rising support line at (2).

The small rally of late has Doc Copper testing the top of its 6-month trading range at (3).

Can ole Doc Copper hurdle this important breakout leve...



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Insider Scoop

The Street's Early Reaction To Walmart's Q4 Beat

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WMT Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Edge Higher; Walmart Tops Q4 Expectations Walmart Brings Bright Spot T...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Feb 17, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

The “V” shape bounce continues in unrelenting fashion as bulls are stampeding bears in 2019!  All due to a little “patience” from the Federal Reserve.  It is really quite breathtaking but we have seen it repeatedly the past decade as the Federal Reserve pours gas on the market.  Hopes for a deal with China also spurred the action upward.  Rallies (both with gap ups) on Tuesday and Friday provided the juice this week.   The S&P 500 is back over its 200 day moving average after being below for 46 days – it’s longest period of time below that level since March 2016.

Mat Klody, chief investment officer at Keebeck Wealth Management, told MarketWatch that the major benchmarks’ steady march higher since the beginning of the year is being driven &#x...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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