Posts Tagged ‘value’

“Sell the News” Bearish Flattening of Yield Curve Continues; Reflections on “Relative Value”

Continuing on the theme of stock market prices vs. real fundamental value, Mish writes: "This is what happens when investors chase "relative value" instead of asking if there is any real value at all…[This] applies to those chasing the stock market at these lofty levels on the basis ‘stocks are cheap relative to treasuries’ or some other nonsensical reason to justify valuations." – Ilene 

Courtesy of Mish

Curve Watchers Anonymous notes a continuing bearish flattening of the yield curve as shown in the following chart.

click on chart for sharper image

A bearish flattening occurs when the curve tightens with yields generally rising. Conversely, a bullish flattening occurs when the curve tightens with yields generally falling.

Since early November, 5-year treasury yields have risen about 60 basis point, 10-year yields about 45 basis points, and 30-year treasury yields have risen perhaps 5 basis points.

Once again we can see the results in today’s action with thanks to Bloomberg.

Buy the Rumor Sell the News

Note the continued unwind of the "sure-thing" treasury bet, with the Fed concentrating its purchases in the 3-to-7-year range hoping to drive down rates, and everyone front-running the trade. That trade is now unwinding.

Clearly this reaction is not what Bernanke wanted at all.

Reflections on "Relative Value"

Check out that .81 yield on 3-year treasuries. On October 18, investors scarfed up $750 million of 3-year Walmart Bonds yielding .75% for the stupid reason they yielded more than treasuries. Now treasuries are yielding more.

This is what happens when investors chase "relative value" instead of asking if there is any real value at all.

The same idea applies to those chasing the stock market at these lofty levels on the basis "stocks are cheap relative to treasuries" or some other nonsensical reason to justify valuations.

There is no value, only unwarranted bullishness.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Originally published at Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, "Sell the News" Bearish Flattening of Yield Curve Continues; Reflections on "Relative Value".


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Economic Value in Aitch-Two-Oh

Economic Value in Aitch-Two-Oh

Courtesy of Tim at The Psy-Fi Blog 

trout103001 -- Rainbow trout spawn in Hoyes Run in Garrett County Maryland.

Odd Water

"The world’s supply of fresh water is running out. Already one person in five has no access to safe drinking water. "

Well, so says the BBC. But water’s an odd thing. You can’t live without it but it’s not particularly valuable. In fact the stuff in your faucet is free, it’s just the cost of getting it there that we pay for.

Water is, perhaps, the pre-eminent example of the old truism that price is what you pay but value is what you get. Only thing is, how do you value something that has no market price? Fortunately teams of highly trained thinkers have been working on this, just so we know the price of everything even if we’re not willing to pay it.

Paradoxical Water

While we absolutely require water every day to survive we can live a lifetime without diamonds, although don’t tell my mother. Yet water’s effectively free while if you want a diamond you need to pay an arm and a leg. This is a paradox that Adam Smith noted:

“Nothing is more useful than water; but it will purchase scarce anything; scarce anything can be had in exchange for it. A diamond, on the contrary, has scarce any value in use; but a very great quantity of other goods may frequently be had in exchange for it”.

As ever, there’s a difference between price and value and that makes all the world of difference. Especially if you’re thirsty. Michael Haneman gives a fabulous review of the economic principles surrounding the use of water in The Value of Water, which we’ll only summarise here, but it’s a great starting point for anyone wondering why intangibles are invaluable.

Man Cooling Off

Marginal Value 

Basically the difference between value and price is a pretty important one for investors and economists because it makes clear that the economic value of something isn’t the same as its market price. There are things that have economic value that price doesn’t accurately measure and this fact makes investment analysis rather more tricky than simple share price followers would like.

The critical key to understanding the difference in valuation between water and diamonds is the idea of marginal value. If you have twelve litres of water to hand – which…
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WHY IS MONEY?

WHY IS MONEY?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Business people filling pockets and bag with fallen money

By Annaly Capital Management:

Back in June we wondered out loud, “What is a dollar?” That exercise—as well as the recent schizophrenic behavior of the currency market and the lamentations regarding the Fed’s “printing press”—has led us to wax philosophical on this Friday in August, and ask the question that is the title of our post today.

We tend to give the concept of money very little thought. For example, how many transactions does the average person engage in every day, and in how many forms? Our first transaction of the day is handing $1.25 in cash to a guy in a cart on 47th Street for our morning coffee. Throughout the day we buy lunch with a debit card, buy a book online with a credit card, transfer money to pay bills online and write a check to pay ConEd. In this parade of transactions, the relevant questions are “How much money do I have?” and “Do I have enough of it to pay for these things?” At no point during the typical day do we question the unit of exchange for all this activity, the US Dollar, or even wonder if it will be accepted as a form of payment (regardless of the form—cash, check, megabytes over an internet line).

The typical complaint about the dollar is that it is a fiat currency, one that is backed by nothing but the faith in America and its institutions. Some feel more comfortable knowing that their paper money can be exchanged at any time for a set amount of gold; it seems more grounded somehow, less faith-based. But a quick look at gold, despite it having a limited quantity (it can’t be printed at will), reveals that the major drawback of fiat money also applies to gold, meaning it only has value because we have always ascribed it value. Essentially, it is a malleable and ductile metal with a limited range of inherent utility. At the end of the day, you can’t eat it, or live in it (but you can wear it). As Willem Buiter, the chief economist at Citigroup and a gold bear, said, gold has benefitted from “the longest-lasting bubble in human history.”

Mackerel

So, with money, backed by gold or otherwise, what do we really have? Maybe we have something of a modified…
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Pressure Increasing on China to Revalue Yuan; What Can Go Wrong?

Pressure Increasing on China to Revalue Yuan; What Can Go Wrong?

Courtesy of Mish 

Digital composite of Tiananmen Gate of Heavenly Peace and one hundred Yuan banknotes

Pressure on China to do something about its allegedly undervalued currency is mounting by the day. Please consider the following articles.

World Bank Calls For Stronger Yuan

The World Bank Says China Must Pare Stimulus to Counter Bubbles

The World Bank indicated that China, the world’s third biggest economy, should raise interest rates to help contain the risk of a property bubble and allow a stronger yuan to help damp inflation expectations.

The nation’s “massive monetary stimulus” risks triggering large asset-price increases, a housing bubble, and bad debts from the financing of local-government projects, the Washington- based World Bank said in a quarterly report on China released in Beijing today. The group raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 9.5 percent from 9 percent in January.

The World Bank’s call echoes the assessment of private economists — analysts at Morgan Stanley this week said higher reserve requirements for banks may be “imminent” and interest rates could start to climb as early as next month. China’s economic rebound has also sparked increasing calls for an end to its exchange-rate peg to the dollar, adopted in mid-2008 to help shelter exporters amid the global recession.

Senate Considers Currency Manipulator Regulation

Bloomberg is reporting Senate May Force Obama to Take Tougher Yuan Stance

Five senators including Charles Schumer of New York and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina introduced legislation yesterday to make it easier for the U.S. to declare currency misalignments and take corrective action. Even if the bill stalls, it may have “ripple effects” that lead the Treasury Department to declare China a currency manipulator, William Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, said.

Obama’s goal of doubling U.S. exports in five years depends on his ability to get China to raise the value of its currency, said Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat and co-author of the legislation. China’s intervention in currency markets to keep the value of the yuan, or renminbi, at a set value acts as a subsidy to exports and tax on imports, Brown said at a news conference yesterday.

Senator Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat, and Sam Brownback, a Kansas Republican, are also supporting the legislation. Graham is a Republican and Schumer is a Democrat.

The senators said the U.S. recession


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Anchoring, The Mother of Behavioral Biases

Anchoring, The Mother of Behavioral Biases

Courtesy of Tim at The Psy-Fi Blog

Anchors underwater

Behavioural Biases (5): Anchoring

Just as an anchored ship rarely strays too far away from its tethering point, a human being prefers to stick close to the references with which they feel most comfortable. Anchoring is an easy-to-demonstrate, hard-to-eradicate behavioural bias that has all sorts of nasty implications for investors, many of them not obvious. In fact, along with availability, it has the claim to be the mother of all biases.

The fundamental investment problem lies in the difficulty in deciding what something is intrinsically worth. A skilled negotiator will start from an extreme position, such as a very high price, in order to frame the subsequent discussions. Anywhere and anytime someone presents us with a number in order to start negotiations we’re being anchored. So if it really matters then you need to start from your own number or walk away.

Random Pricing

Anchoring is almost trivially easy to demonstrate and it’s been replicated many times by many researchers in many situations. Perhaps the simplest example is to use peoples’ social security numbers as a reference. As Dan Airely shows here, by simply getting people to write down the last two digits of the number and then asking them to submit mock bids it’s possible to get people with higher numbers to bid up to twice as much as their lower number companions. Unconsciously the brain sets the social security derived number as the reference point and then adjusts accordingly.

It’s worth dwelling on that. I think it’s simply astonishing and truly shocking that highly evolved, smart primates like ourselves can be fooled into utterly stupid behaviour through a trivial piece of misdirection. And it affects us all.

Anchoring is a particularly pervasive problem and occurs in all sorts of scenarios, being particularly beloved by opinion poll surveyors, real-estate agents, stockbrokers, car salesmen, supermarkets and, well, virtually everyone who wants us to buy things. Wherever and whenever anyone presents us with a number and then asks us to do something with it you can be sure we’re be tricked into behaviour that probably isn’t in our best interests.

Multiple Choice, Multi-Buys

Multiple choice surveys on some kind of sliding scale are an especially fun source of anchoring issues since people will invariably anchor


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Willem Buiter Apparently Does Not Like Gold, and Why

Jesse debates Willem H. Buiter on the subject of Gold. Willem H. Buiter is a Professor of European Political Economy, London School of Economics and Political Science, former chief economist of the EBRD, former member of the MPC, and adviser to international organisations, governments, central banks and private institutions. He writes the FT’s Maverecon blog. – Ilene

Willem Buiter Apparently Does Not Like Gold, and Why

goldCourtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Dr. Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics, and advisor to the Bank of England, has written a somewhat astonishing broadsheet attacking of all things, gold.

I have enjoyed his writing in the past. And although he does tend to cultivate and relish the aura of eccentric maverick, it is generally appealing, and his writing has been pertinent and reasoned, if unconventional. That is what makes this latest piece so unusual. It is a diatribe, more emotional than factual, with gaping holes in theoretical underpinnings and historical example.

I suspect that commodities such as oil and gold are giving many western economists with official ties to government monetary committees a stomach ache these days. Perhaps this is just another manifestation of statists and financial engineers facing the music, as illustrated by the second piece of news from Mr. Buiter on the US dollar, from earlier this year.

Here are relevant excerpts from his essay, with my own reactions in italics.

Financial Times
Gold – a six thousand year-old bubble

By Willem Buiter
November 8, 2009 6:02pm

"Gold is unlike any other commodity. It is costly to extract from the earth and to refine to a reasonable degree of purity. It is costly to store."

This is inherent to its rarity. It is desirable because it is scarce and useful, and this requires greater protection against theft or accident. Euro notes are far more costly to store than the paper and ink which is used to make them, at least for now.

"It has no remaining uses as a producer good – equivalent or superior alternatives exist for all its industrial uses."

This is an absolute howler to anyone who cares to look into industrial metallurgy. Gold is one of the most malleable and ductile of metals, with excellent conductive properties, slightly less than silver but better than copper, and it is remarkably resistant to oxidation. It does not tarnish.


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Who is going to buy gold?

Who is going to buy gold?

gold bug (edgar allen poe)Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson at Contrarian Edge

This is the first in a series of what some may consider as “gold bashing” articles. I am not short gold in any shape or form. I have no axe to grind against gold bugs. I am simply presenting the other side of the argument in response to what I deem to be dishonest, gold-pimping commercials (e.g., “If gold prices went up to $5,000 this pile of gold would be worth $300,000”) that we are subjected to all day long on TV. I may be wrong, but I am honest.

Here is a trivia question for you: what country is the seventh largest holder of gold, ahead of China, Japan, and Switzerland? Well, it was a trick question: the seventh largest holder of gold is not a country, it is an exchange-traded fund, GLD. Yes, a fund that is not even five years old is the seventh largest holder of physical gold in the whole world, even ahead of mighty China.

When investors buy GLD, GLD in turn has to go out and buy gold, driving up the price. This raises a little question: who will be buying this gold from GLD when investors decide to sell it? Gold is one of those weird assets where nobody knows what it is really worth. You cannot run discounted cash-flow analysis to value it – it has no cash flows. It is an asset where perception and reality are deeply intertwined.

Investors buying the gold ETF (GLD) are influencing the price of gold, which is fair for the most part, as otherwise they’d be buying the real thing. The ease of buying GLD creates a higher, artificial demand – but GLD is still fair game.

The violent selloff in GLD will be caused by factors that are hard to predict today (e.g., hedge-fund liquidations) but that will drive the price of gold down dramatically unless a real buyer steps in (like another government sick of owning the US debt, for instance), and the gold price could get cut in half overnight. Suddenly, perception of not being a store of value will create the reality of gold not being a store of value. The gold game will be over.

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is a portfolio manager/director of research at Investment Management Associates
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Phil's Favorites

Trump craves good press from the 'fake news' media - just look at his White House newsletter

 

Trump craves good press from the 'fake news' media – just look at his White House newsletter

Courtesy of Joseph Graf, American University School of Communication

Mainstream press coverage of President Trump has been unfavorable. Thomas Patterson found that 80 percent of stories in the first 100 days of the administration were negative in tone.

The president has attacked the media as “fake news” and journalists as “the enemy of the American people.”

The president’s anti-press assaults are so...



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Biotech

Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Nanomedicine could scupper the need for TB patients to take multiple daily tablets with toxic side effects. Daniel Irungu/EPA

Courtesy of Sarah D'Souza, University of the Western Cape and Admire Dube, University of the Western Cape

Tuberculosis is one of the world’s ...



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ValueWalk

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins: Working To Engage Multi-Cloud On All Fronts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Transcript: Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins Speaks with CNBC’s Jim Cramer Today

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

The following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins and CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Squawk on the Street” (M-F 9AM – 11AM) today, Thursday, August 16. The following are links to video of the interview on CNBC.com:

Cisco CEO: We are working to engage multi-cloud on all fronts

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins on earnings and...

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Zero Hedge

Turkey Rules Out Capital Controls As Germany Says IMF Bailout "Would Be Helpful"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

During this morning's conference call organized by Citi, HSBC and other banks with "thousands"  of investors, Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak - the Jared Kushner of Turkey  - eased nerves when in an attempt to bolster confidence, said that capital controls were ruled out as a policy option for Turkey. As a reminder, capital controls are widely seen as the &...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Interest Rates Peaking? Watch The Copper/Gold Ratio!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

If you spend time researching market relationships you can better understand money flows, rotation, and reasons why money flows rotate. This can be very helpful in identifying trend changes as well.

Today, we’ll look at the relationship between 10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield (INDEXCBOE: TNX) and the ratio of Copper (NYSEARCA: JJC) to Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Interest Rates Peaking?

Looking at the chart below, we can see that treasury yields and the Copper/Gold ratio tend to peak and bottom together – this has occurred several times over the past 5 years.

Currently, the 10 Year Yield is forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern (in red) at the same time that the Copper/Gold ratio is testing important support...



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Insider Scoop

Argus Upgrades Lululemon On Multiple Growth Levers

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related LULU Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For August 16, 2018 3 Retailers Jim Cramer Says Are Winners In A Volatile Sector...

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Chart School

Bitcoin Update - 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Demand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts
 


 

Main Chart in video



 

Sure fundamentals...



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Digital Currencies

What is a blockchain token?

 

What is a blockchain token?

What’s this digital token good for, anyway? knipsdesign/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

People are just becoming acquainted with the idea of digital money in the form of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, where transactions are recorded on a secure distributed database called a blockchain. And now along comes a new concept: the blockchain-based token, which I’ve been following as a blockchain researcher a...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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