Posts Tagged ‘Vitaliy Katsenelson’

QE2 is not only a mistake “it’s criminal” says Vitaliy Katsenelson: Tech Ticker

The Treasury market is rebounding Thursday. Yields have fallen from a six-month high, reached Wednesday, but are still up from where they were earlier in the week. Yields on the 10-year are trading at 3.23% today.

This is not what the Federal Reserve had in mind when the central bank announced the plan to purchase $600 billion in Treasury bonds — a move that was hoped would lower rates and stimulate the U.S. economy.

Of course, there are many critics of the Fed who say the second round of quantitative easing is wrong and even harmful. "The failure of QE2 doesn’t worry me, it’s the success that worries me," says Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates.

"I think it’s criminal," he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "They’re forcing people that should not be taking risk to take risk."  The fear is the Fed is repeating its past mistakes — helping to build an asset bubble that will eventually burst with grave consequences.

More here: qe2 is not only a mistake "it’s criminal" says vitaliy katsenelson: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance.


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The case for Pfizer

The case for Pfizer

Courtesy of  Vitaliy Katsenelson, at Contrarian Edge

Pfizer Profits Drop After Pharmacia Charges

I understand why investors don’t want to own Pfizer (PFE); there is little excitement in the stock:

  •  It is down significantly from the Viagra-high it reached in 1998.  Yes, Pfizer is the maker of Viagra, the drug that spawned a slew of commercials that made TV unwatchable (especially if you have little kids who ask you if they or you need this medicine that makes people on TV hug each other, or ask you “What is reptile dysfunction?”).
  • Pfizer’s earnings have not gone anywhere for years.
  • As with almost anything medical-related, Pfizer is exposed to the political risks of Washington DC.
  • Finally, it is facing patent expirations of its major blockbuster drugs like Lipitor ($12 billion of sales) and a few others that will hinder PFE’s future growth for years. 
Viagra pills

There is not much one can do about TV commercials except cancel cable or watch less TV (I did both).  Nor there is not much one can do about the stock-price decline over the last ten years – maybe the only thing to do is learn not to buy hype; after all, Pfizer was trading at over 50 times earnings in the late ’90s. 

I don’t want to dismiss the political risk, but it seems that due to extensive lobbying efforts by pharmaceutical companies, political risk has turned into only a slight inconvenience.  Pharma companies have agreed to $80 billion of price concessions over the next ten years, but at the same time they’ll benefit from a larger customer base, as more people will have access to health insurance.

Instead of being mesmerized by huge drug expirations, we can do the value-investor kind of thing – estimate the impact of drug expirations on PFE’s cash flows and value the stock using discounted cash-flow analysis based on these assumptions. 

So let’s value Pfizer:

No New Drugs Scenario:  At the end of 2009 Pfizer acquired Wyeth (WYE), a large pharmaceutical company.  I’ll address this very important acquisition in a bit, but first, let’s look at Pfizer on a pre-Wyeth basis.  The fewer optimistic assumptions we use, the less likely the future will disappoint us.  Applying this logic, let’s assume that soon after a drug-patent expiration, as the generic version hits the market, revenue…
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Books that will help gain sanity in insane market – Part 2

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson

I originally wrote this list of recommended books last year; recently I updated and added a few more.  I hope to keep adding to it every year.  It contains six sections: Selling, Think Like an Investor, Behavioral Investing, Economics, Stock Market History, and Books for the Soul.  Due to its length, I divided it into two parts.  You can read part 1 by clicking here

Behavioral Investing

The right temperament is crucial in investing. Being a critical thinker and knowing how to value stocks is important, but it is all a waste if your emotions get the better of you. The following books will help you to recognize the shortcomings of your hard-wiring and help you to devise strategies to deal with it.

Psychology of Investing, by John R. Nofsinger, is short and to the point. You’ll become an expert on behavioral investing in about an hour. Well, not quite, but close.

Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes And How To Correct Them, by Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich.  This is a fun and easy read. It also addresses how shortcomings in our wiring impact money decisions, like buying cars and stereos.

Your Money and Your Brain, by Jason Zweig, is another selection. I have to admit that the two books above cover many topics in this book (though this one offers new angles and insights) and are likely to be more exciting reads, but Chapter 10 is what makes this book a must-read: it addresses happiness – yes, happiness. Although, as most of us know, money doesn’t buy happiness (unless you are starving or living on the street), money spent on acquisitions – things – brings a burst of happiness that quickly fades away. Think of your level of happiness when you bought the car of your dreams. Money spent on experiences – being – brings a higher utility of happiness. Recollecting experience brings happiness. I plan to reread this chapter at least a couple of times a year. Zweig also provides a list of things you can do that will make you happy, and none of them require you to spend a penny, which is a big positive in today’s economy.

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, written in 1923 by Edwin Lefevre, tells from a first-person perspective the fictionalized tale of the early years of the great trader…
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The Conclusion: Beating a Dead Horse (to Death)

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Follow-up to Beating a Dead Horse by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Contrarian Edge and Active Value Investing 

The Conclusion: Beating a Dead Horse (to Death)

My “Beating the Dead Horse” article ended with a very insightful conclusion “Need I say more?”  I received a dozen emails that said – you DO need to say more.  So here I am saying more:

What do we take out of this?  The Chinese ascent over last decade has lowered the degree of separation between China and the global economy.  What happens in China doesn’t stay in China (not anymore); it spills over to the rest of the world. 

Today, Chinese economic growth is the force pushing the global economy. The quality of this growth, however, is low as it is predicated on massive (forced) lending and thus unsustainable.  As Chinese growth slows, China will turn from a wind into sails of global economy to its anchor.  The impact will be felt in many, often unsuspected places. 

It will tank the commodity markets, commodity producers and commodity exporting nations.  Let’s take oil, for instance.  As incremental demand from China collapses, oil prices will follow, taking the Russian economy with it, as Russia is for the most part a one-trick-petrochemical-pony.  According to GavKal Research China accounts for 15% of Brazil’s exports (up from 1.5% a decade ago), significantly impacting the economy of that South American nation.

Demand for industrial goods will fall off the cliff.  China consumed a lot of those goods – $550 billion worth annually (also according to GaveKal Research).  So if Caterpillar expects to sell more of its yellow earthmovers to China, it will have put that thought on hold for awhile.  (Side note: CAT’s CEO expects CAT’s earnings “$8 to $10 per share within five years if the world economy recovers”.  Let me put it into a proper context: in 2007-2008 circa when its margins and sales were at all time high, double their historical average, CAT earned about $5.50 a share.  Good luck!)

Finally, Chinese appetite for our fine currency will diminish, driving the dollar lower against the renminbi and boosting our interest rates higher. No more 5% mortgages and 6% car loans.

Identifying bubbles is a lot easier than timing them. …
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Beating a Dead Horse

Beating a Dead Horse

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson’s ContrarianEdge and Active Value Investing 

“'Beauty Samba' is by my father Naum Katsenelson" - VitaliyI know, I may sound like I’m beating a dead horse – how much printer cartridge can one spill over China?  – but I have a very high burden of proof to overcome.  Let me demonstrate it by this analogy:  Let’s rewind 20 years.  It is 1989 and I am writing that the Japanese economy is on the verge of severe decline.  I’m facing a lot of skepticism.  Most people are calling me crazy and throwing heavy objects at me.  After all, the Japanese are on top of the world.  Their economy has been a consistent grower for decades, with a rate of growth that trumps that of the US and Europe.  Japan has the manufacturing thing nailed – they are simply better and more efficient at it than us. 

Magazines and newspapers swarm with stories about Japan, how hard working they are, how unique their culture is (we of course, feel inferior, as lazy Americans).  Japanese exports significantly exceed their imports, generating huge capital-account surpluses – they are swimming in dollars and buying up America. Every other restaurant in Hawaii serves sushi and menus are in English and Japanese (not Spanish).  I may be exaggerating with the last part, a little, but not much.
 
So, in 1989, who am I to poke holes in Japanese grandness and predict their malaise.  Japan could do no wrong.  Of course, we know how that story played out: a bust of a major banking/real estate bubble, a contracting economy for almost two decades, accompanied by deflation, ballooning debt, etc. 
 
Fast-forward, and China today is where Japan was in the late ’80s, except with the greater political instability that comes with a semi-controlled economy and the lack of a social safety net (read: jobless, hungry people don’t write angry letters, they riot). 
 
china olympics opening ceremonySince China can do nothing wrong, everything I write about it is met with skepticism.  Today China projects to the world a similar image as Japan did in the 1980s.  My personal favorite is the incredible spectacle of the Chinese Summer Olympics opening ceremony: the elegant, wonderfully choreographed performance by fifteen thousand people, the marvels of modern technology (the 500-foot LCD screen comes to mind here), the…
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Are We There Yet? Is the Range-Bound Market Over?

Are We There Yet? Is the Range-Bound Market Over?

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson at The Contrarian Edge & Active Value Investing

For the next dozen years or so, the U.S. stock market will be a wild roller-coaster ride—setting all-time highs and multi-year lows in the process. While the twists and turns of this ride are still to be written by history, the long-term, sideways “range-bound” trajectory has already been set by the eighteen-year bull market that ended in 2000.

When the dust settles, only those who adapted their investment strategies to this range-bound market will have captured any meaningful profits. This is how I started my book Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets (Wiley, 2007). The following presentation/speech answers the question: Are we there yet? Is the Range-Bound Market Over? (okay, two questions)

Here is a link to the presentation/speech of my book. This presentation/speech almost qualifies as a second (free) edition of the first part of my book – the part that explains why we are likely suffering through a range-bound market.  I updated the data; found a better way to explain old and new topics; changed my mind on some things; and answered questions that have been raised by readers.   I have to warn you this PDF is 20 pages long.  However, a lot of space is consumed by charts and tables thus don’t let the size scare you.  Kill some trees, don’t kill your eyes – print it. 

I hope you enjoy this and more importantly find it beneficial.  You are welcome to share it with your friends (and enemies). 

 

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is a portfolio manager/director of research at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo., and he teaches a graduate investment class at the University of Colorado at Denver. He is the author of "Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets" (Wiley 2007).  To receive Vitaliy’s future articles my email, click here.

 


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Zero Hedge

Greenwich Single-Family Listings Fall Most On Record As Buying Frenzy Continues 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

New York City millionaires quickly realize their hometown has transformed into a socio-economic disaster that could rival the 1970s in terms of crime, unemployment, and taxes. Many have made a beeline for neighboring Greenwich. 

After years of stagnant demand growth for its multi-million dollar mansions due to the secular decline of "active" asset management, the hedge fund capital of the world is having a real estate renaissance in the town located in southwestern Fairfield County, Connecticut. And it only took a virus pandemic.&...



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Phil's Favorites

Have Bear Markets Changed Forever?

 

Have Bear Markets Changed Forever?

Courtesy of 

We’ve never seen a bear market like the one we just lived through. Nothing comes close in terms of how quickly it started and how quickly it ended.

In just 19 days, the Dow was 20% below its highs. In 22 days, it was 30% below. And in just 27 days, it was all over. The bottom was in. To call this unusual is an understatement. You can see in the chart below that most bear markets take literally hundreds of days to bottom.

This entire bear marke...



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Digital Currencies

A Unifying Theory of Everything

 

A Unifying Theory of Everything

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

This week, New York Magazine let me go full stream of consciousness on … everything. Their editor pitched me the idea to articulate a unifying theory on “this whole crazy techno-fiscal moment.” Problem is, while I understand crypto better than 99 percent of people, I do not understand crypto.

On Wednesday, crypto pioneer Coinbase listed shares on the NASDAQ, and closed the day at an almost $100 billion valuation, making it nearly as valuable as Goldman Sachs. Coinbase’s big day made a bunch of wealthy people wealthier, but it also poked several bears — ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Scientists are on a path to sequencing 1 million human genomes and use big data to unlock genetic secrets

 

Scientists are on a path to sequencing 1 million human genomes and use big data to unlock genetic secrets

A complete human genome, seen here in pairs of chromosomes, offers a wealth of information, but it is hard connect genetics to traits or disease. HYanWong/Wikimedia Comons

Courtesy of Xavier Bofill De Ros, National Institutes of Health

The first draft of the human genome was publ...



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Chart School

Money Printing Asset Price Targets

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The FED giveth and the FED taketh away. Right now the FED is giving a lot into 2022 US Mid Terms. 

Unless the FED breaks the market, here are some BRRRRR asset price targets, not normal price targets but money printing adjusted price targets. 


BITCOIN 175,000 to 500,000 USD

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DOW to 40,000 to 50,000

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Politics

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

 

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

Venezuelans wait at the Colombian border to be processed and housed in tents in 2020. All Venezuelans now in Colombia will receive a 10-year residency permit. Schneyder Mendoza/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Erika Frydenlund, Old Dominion University; Jose J. Padilla, Old Dominion University...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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