Posts Tagged ‘wall st. sector selector’

Last Week Was Just the Beginning

Last Week Was Just the Beginning

Courtesy of John Nyaradi, Wall St. Sector Selector 

Weekly Stock Market and ETF commentary from Wall Street Sector Selector

Last week was difficult, at best, for global stock markets as the S&P 500 dropped more than -3% and the bond market surged as investors continued their “flight to quality.” Fear spread around the world with global markets shedding recent gains.  It was definitely a “risk off” week and the beginning of what I believe will continue to be a “risk off” period as we move through the closing days of summer.

The macro news was mostly poor, as we’ll discuss in a moment, and the technical picture deteriorated. In our portfolios, we moved to “Red Flag Flying” mode, expecting lower prices ahead, and moved from our remaining cash positions to inverse ETFs in the Standard Portfolio, while keeping our option portfolio positioned for more downside ahead. 

Our new “High Conviction Trade Alert triggered its first ‘buy’ signal and I’m looking forward to reporting more details on this to our Pro members in the weekly Position Update. The High Conviction Trade Alert is designed to identify high conviction/low risk opportunities.  It won’t trade very often but should offer excellent risk/reward opportunities. 

Looking at My Screens 

On a technical basis, significant damage was inflicted last week to equity markets around the world.  As we’ve been saying, an imminent decline in U.S. markets seems to be upon us, and it appears that last week’s action could have been the beginning of that move.

 

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart above you can see that the S&P 500 has dropped below its 200 day moving average and also below its 50 Day Moving Average, indicating that the long and medium term trend is down.  These significant moving averages now become resistance rather than support and we see the next support levels at 1060 and then near 1020 at the June lows. 

The 50 Day Moving Average remains below the 200 Day Moving Average, forming the widely watched “death cross,” which typically accompanies significant trend changes.  Additionally, the 12 month moving average of the S&P 500 was also violated which is another bearish indicator for major markets. 

As if all of this isn’t gloomy enough, last week’s stock market action triggered a “Hindenburg Omen,” named after the German zeppelin that crashed and burned in New York…
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At the Tipping Point (Still)

At the Tipping Point (Still) (SPY, DIA, GLD, USO)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi at Wall St. Sector Selector, July 27, 2010

Instratrader Indicators: 

  • Yellow Flag: We Expect Choppy Prices Ahead 
  • Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Very Optimistic (short term bearish) 
  • Short Term Market Condition:  Very Overbought (short term bearish) 
  • Short Term Trend: Up 
  • Medium Term Trend: Neutral 
  • Long Term Trend: Neutral 
  • % of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 59.5%/-1.9% 
  • % of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change:    75.5%/-1.6% 

Market Update:

Market Closing Price %Change
Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) 10,537 +0.1
S&P 500 (SPY) 1113 -0.1
Gold  $1162 -1.9
Oil  $77.41 -2.0
VIX 23.1 +2.0
Shanghai Comp 2575 -0.5

Commentary:

Today’s (7/27) news was mixed with the Case/Shiller Housing Index registering gains along with positive earnings reports and outlook from DuPont while Consumer Confidence took a tumble and Moody’s downgraded Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on their “supported ratings” which assumes a government bailout of the “too big to fail” category.  Because financial reform passed, government intervention is less likely to happen or be less extensive.

Gold and oil were crushed today, down some 2% each, while the VIX rose 2%.  The S&P 500 slipped to even with its all important 200 Day Moving Average, closing at 1113.84 compared to 1113.93 for the average.

Markets remain overbought and overoptimistic and subject to short term correction.  We remain in the “Yellow Flag Flying” mode, expecting choppy prices ahead.  A failure to materially break above overhead resistance between 1120-1130 on the S&P 500 will likely lead to lower prices ahead.  One of our indicators points to the growing possibility of a significant downturn ahead, but, of course, no one has a crystal ball and so the timing of that potential event is unknown.

Disclosure: psq, rwm, sh, skf, spy put

Read our weekend newsletter, Wall Street Sector Selector Review, for full market updates and analysis. 


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Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

red flagCourtesy of John Nyaradi

Click here for a Special Report from Wall Street Sector Selector

Instratrader Indicators: 

Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead 

Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral 

Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish) 

Short Term Trend: Up 

Medium Term Trend: Down 

Long Term Trend: Down 

% of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 51%/ +23% 

% of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change:    60% /+51% 

Market Update:

Market closing price  % change 
DIA 10,322 +1.99%
SPY 1093 +2.3%
GLD $1194 +0.8%
Oil $79.10 +3.3%
Vix $24.63 -3.9%
Shanghai Comp 2562 +1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Commentary

Back to back manic days as the markets continue to struggle with poor macro economic news and mostly positive earnings. 

Today it was “risk on” as Microsoft, Caterpillar and UPS earnings were cheered while Amazon missed, housing reports and unemployment all were negative.  Chairman Bernanke continued his commentary on Capitol Hill but today, unlike yesterday, the markets rallied.  Jobless benefits were extended by Congress.  Tomorrow brings earnings reports from Ford and McDonalds and the long awaited “stress tests” designed to show the health of the European banks. 

For the weekend, we have a tropical storm heading for the BP well in the Gulf of Mexico and apparently the well be unattended and operations will stop.  There are all kinds of varying forecasts about what will happen that range from nothing to a methane rain over the Gulf Coast. 

1100 on the S&P remains formidable resistance as does the 200 Day Moving Average at 1113 just above today’s close.  Point and Figure charts remain on “sell” signals but close to changing.  This is a titanic struggle that will resolve one way or other over the coming days.

We remain in the “red flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Disclosure: psq, rwm, sh, skf, spy put

Read our weekend newsletter, Wall Street Sector Selector Review, for full market updates and analysis.


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Zero Hedge

Comcast, AT&T Set To Become World's Most Indebted Companies With Over $350BN In Debt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

At a time when the IMF estimates that more than 20% of the world's companies would be unable to cover their interest payments if interest rates moved sharply higher, Comcast and AT&T are poised to become the most indebted companies in the world following media megadeals that leave the two companies with little room to maneuver if profits fail to materialize, according to the ...



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Phil's Favorites

These Are the Goods

 

These Are the Goods

Courtesy of 

Articles

What I thought was a major career failure turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to my career ~ by Blair duQuesnay

Learn to love the micro-stakes arena ~ by Tommy Tranfo

If things like research department headcount or manager tenure had any predictive value, then you could throw away your Bloomberg terminal and just use LinkedIn ~ ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Update - Testing support on cycle low

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Due to popular demand, bitcoin review.

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Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and ...

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Digital Currencies

BIS Blasts Cryptos In Special Report: "Beyond The Hype"

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

The BIS blasts cryptos over scaling issues, energy, and trust. The BIS is correct. Cryptos are fatally flawed as money.

A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) report examines cryptocurrencies in depth. The study, called "Looking Beyond the Hype" investigates whether cryptocurrencies could play any role as money.

Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Bitcoin Exchange guide all have articles on the report but not one of the bothered to link to it.

After a bit of digging, I found the crypto report is part of an upcoming BIS annual report. The BIS pre-released the crypto report today (as chapter 5).

Here's a l...



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Insider Scoop

4 Online Trading Shows You Should Watch To Start Your Day

Courtesy of Benzinga.

For most people, the stock market’s regular session (9:30 a.m. - 4 p.m. ET) is the only time they can trade. But there’s a whole other world of action taking place before and after each weekday session.

The pre-market and after-hours sessions (4-9:30 a.m. and 4-8 p.m. respectively) offer not only a time for some experienced individuals to trade, but also the chance to learn about the vast majority of corporate news the moment it’s released.

Because all that market...



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Biotech

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

By agsandrew/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of David E. Olson, University of California, Davis

It seems that psychedelics do more than simply alter perception. According to the latest research from my colleagues and me, they change the structures of neurons th...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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