Posts Tagged ‘wall st. sector selector’

Last Week Was Just the Beginning

Last Week Was Just the Beginning

Courtesy of John Nyaradi, Wall St. Sector Selector 

Weekly Stock Market and ETF commentary from Wall Street Sector Selector

Last week was difficult, at best, for global stock markets as the S&P 500 dropped more than -3% and the bond market surged as investors continued their “flight to quality.” Fear spread around the world with global markets shedding recent gains.  It was definitely a “risk off” week and the beginning of what I believe will continue to be a “risk off” period as we move through the closing days of summer.

The macro news was mostly poor, as we’ll discuss in a moment, and the technical picture deteriorated. In our portfolios, we moved to “Red Flag Flying” mode, expecting lower prices ahead, and moved from our remaining cash positions to inverse ETFs in the Standard Portfolio, while keeping our option portfolio positioned for more downside ahead. 

Our new “High Conviction Trade Alert triggered its first ‘buy’ signal and I’m looking forward to reporting more details on this to our Pro members in the weekly Position Update. The High Conviction Trade Alert is designed to identify high conviction/low risk opportunities.  It won’t trade very often but should offer excellent risk/reward opportunities. 

Looking at My Screens 

On a technical basis, significant damage was inflicted last week to equity markets around the world.  As we’ve been saying, an imminent decline in U.S. markets seems to be upon us, and it appears that last week’s action could have been the beginning of that move.

 

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart above you can see that the S&P 500 has dropped below its 200 day moving average and also below its 50 Day Moving Average, indicating that the long and medium term trend is down.  These significant moving averages now become resistance rather than support and we see the next support levels at 1060 and then near 1020 at the June lows. 

The 50 Day Moving Average remains below the 200 Day Moving Average, forming the widely watched “death cross,” which typically accompanies significant trend changes.  Additionally, the 12 month moving average of the S&P 500 was also violated which is another bearish indicator for major markets. 

As if all of this isn’t gloomy enough, last week’s stock market action triggered a “Hindenburg Omen,” named after the German zeppelin that crashed and burned in New York…
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At the Tipping Point (Still)

At the Tipping Point (Still) (SPY, DIA, GLD, USO)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi at Wall St. Sector Selector, July 27, 2010

Instratrader Indicators: 

  • Yellow Flag: We Expect Choppy Prices Ahead 
  • Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Very Optimistic (short term bearish) 
  • Short Term Market Condition:  Very Overbought (short term bearish) 
  • Short Term Trend: Up 
  • Medium Term Trend: Neutral 
  • Long Term Trend: Neutral 
  • % of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 59.5%/-1.9% 
  • % of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change:    75.5%/-1.6% 

Market Update:

Market Closing Price %Change
Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) 10,537 +0.1
S&P 500 (SPY) 1113 -0.1
Gold  $1162 -1.9
Oil  $77.41 -2.0
VIX 23.1 +2.0
Shanghai Comp 2575 -0.5

Commentary:

Today’s (7/27) news was mixed with the Case/Shiller Housing Index registering gains along with positive earnings reports and outlook from DuPont while Consumer Confidence took a tumble and Moody’s downgraded Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on their “supported ratings” which assumes a government bailout of the “too big to fail” category.  Because financial reform passed, government intervention is less likely to happen or be less extensive.

Gold and oil were crushed today, down some 2% each, while the VIX rose 2%.  The S&P 500 slipped to even with its all important 200 Day Moving Average, closing at 1113.84 compared to 1113.93 for the average.

Markets remain overbought and overoptimistic and subject to short term correction.  We remain in the “Yellow Flag Flying” mode, expecting choppy prices ahead.  A failure to materially break above overhead resistance between 1120-1130 on the S&P 500 will likely lead to lower prices ahead.  One of our indicators points to the growing possibility of a significant downturn ahead, but, of course, no one has a crystal ball and so the timing of that potential event is unknown.

Disclosure: psq, rwm, sh, skf, spy put

Read our weekend newsletter, Wall Street Sector Selector Review, for full market updates and analysis. 


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Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

red flagCourtesy of John Nyaradi

Click here for a Special Report from Wall Street Sector Selector

Instratrader Indicators: 

Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead 

Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral 

Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish) 

Short Term Trend: Up 

Medium Term Trend: Down 

Long Term Trend: Down 

% of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 51%/ +23% 

% of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change:    60% /+51% 

Market Update:

Market closing price  % change 
DIA 10,322 +1.99%
SPY 1093 +2.3%
GLD $1194 +0.8%
Oil $79.10 +3.3%
Vix $24.63 -3.9%
Shanghai Comp 2562 +1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Commentary

Back to back manic days as the markets continue to struggle with poor macro economic news and mostly positive earnings. 

Today it was “risk on” as Microsoft, Caterpillar and UPS earnings were cheered while Amazon missed, housing reports and unemployment all were negative.  Chairman Bernanke continued his commentary on Capitol Hill but today, unlike yesterday, the markets rallied.  Jobless benefits were extended by Congress.  Tomorrow brings earnings reports from Ford and McDonalds and the long awaited “stress tests” designed to show the health of the European banks. 

For the weekend, we have a tropical storm heading for the BP well in the Gulf of Mexico and apparently the well be unattended and operations will stop.  There are all kinds of varying forecasts about what will happen that range from nothing to a methane rain over the Gulf Coast. 

1100 on the S&P remains formidable resistance as does the 200 Day Moving Average at 1113 just above today’s close.  Point and Figure charts remain on “sell” signals but close to changing.  This is a titanic struggle that will resolve one way or other over the coming days.

We remain in the “red flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Disclosure: psq, rwm, sh, skf, spy put

Read our weekend newsletter, Wall Street Sector Selector Review, for full market updates and analysis.


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Zero Hedge

The 'Golden Age Of Plastic'? Banks Are Quietly Raising Credit Limits For Freespending Borrowers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Credit-card lenders are calling it the 'Golden Age of Plastic'. But that's mostly because they're the ones hoarding all the gold.

Gloom-and-doom economists who have portended the imminent collapse of the American consumer (we don't want to name names) might have a reason to put off their calls for a downturn of epic proportions just a little bit longer. Because at a t...



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Phil's Favorites

BOGUS DEFENSE BINGO

 

BOGUS DEFENSE BINGO

Courtesy of Teri Kanefield

(Teri is an author, political commentator and lawyer. Visit her blog for more of her thoughts here.)

If the Trump Defense Trial Brief is any indication, we will be hearing lot of bogus defenses and crazy conspiracy theories.

I wanted a way to get through it without wanting to poke my eyeballs with a fork.

So I came up with an idea: Bogus Defense Bingo. You can get your bingo card here.

...

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The Technical Traders

The Wuhan Wipeout - Could It Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News is traveling fast about the Corona Virus that originated in Wuhan, China. Two new confirmed cases in the US, one in Europe and hundreds in China. As we learn more about thispotential pandemic outbreak, we are learning that China did very little to contain this problem from the start. Now, quarantining two cities and trying to control the potential
outbreak, may become a futile effort.

In most of Asia, the Chinese New Year is already in full swing.  Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and a host of other countries are already starting to celebrate the 7 to 10 day long New Year.  Millions of people have already traveled hundreds of thousands of miles to visit family...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bad News For Crude Oil Should Come From This Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s a good idea for investors to be aware of key indicators and inter-market relationships.

Perhaps it’s watching the US Dollar as an indicator for precious metals or emerging markets. Or watching interest rates for the economy. Experience, history, and relationships matter. And it’s good to simply add these to our tool-kit.

Today, we look at another relationship that has signaled numerous stock market tops and bottoms over the years, and especially the past several months, Crude Oil.

When crude oil tops or bottoms, it seems that ...



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Insider Scoop

5 Software-Application Stocks Moving In Thursday's After-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers

Atlassian Corporation, Inc. (NASDAQ:TEAM) stock surged 9.7% to $145.50 during Thursday's after-market session. According to the most recent rating by Morgan Stanley, on January 13, the current rating is at Overweight.

Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. (NYSE:DBD) shares increased by 8.1% to $11.48. The most recent rating by DA Davidson, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $17.00.

Telaria, Inc. (NYSE:TLRA) stock rose 4...



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Biotech

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Chinese cobra (Naja atra) with hood spread. Briston/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Haitao Guo, University of Pittsburgh; Guangxiang “George” Luo, Univers...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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