Posts Tagged ‘weather’

Weekly Unemployment Claims At 469,000; Prepare for Friday’s BLS Snow Job

Weekly Unemployment Claims At 469,000; Prepare for Friday’s BLS Snow Job

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds are investigating the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report for March 4, 2010.

In the week ending Feb. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 469,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 498,000. The 4-week moving average was 470,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 474,250.

Weekly Unemployment Claims 

The weekly claims numbers are volatile so it’s best to focus on the trend in the 4-week moving average. That 4-week average has not show any improvement for quite some time.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims Detail

The 4-week moving average of claims for the last three weeks is above where it was on December 12, 2009 and just slightly better than it was on December 5, 2009. By this measure, the recovery has stalled.

Blaming The Weather

A week ago in "Nascent" Recovery or "Nascent" Economic Collapse? I noted how economists were blaming the weather for last week’s rise in weekly claims and possible jump in the monthly job report.

Weather Related Questions

I have a few simple questions for all the dim-bulb economists now blaming the weather:

  • "Did you not know there was a snowstorm on the East coast?"
  • "If you did, then why didn’t you factor it in to your estimates?"
  • "How can you be surprised by something you knew?"

Bernanke’s Snow Job

To refresh your memory, last week Bernanke blamed the weather for the jump in claims and warned about overinterpreting the data.

From Yahoo Finance Jobless claims rise due to weather-related factors.

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee that the snowstorms are likely to have a short-term — but not permanent — effect on unemployment and layoffs. He said policymakers will "have to be careful about not overinterpreting" the upcoming data."

Summers Shovels Snow

Inquiring minds are reading Summers Shovels Snow on Winter’s Job Prospects by Caroline Baum.

Summers came out of virtual retirement Tuesday to tell CNBC the blizzards last month were likely to distort February’s employment statistics. It’s “very important to look past whatever the next figures are to gauge the underlying trends,” the White House economic adviser said in a


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The Microsoft Hurricane Creation Machine

Fascinating.  Can Bill Gates control the weather?  Let’s call that (another) Plan C.

The Microsoft Hurricane Creation Machine

Courtesy of finem respice

Submitted by ep 
sea water mix, hurricanes, mixing warm and cold water

It is difficult to connect with the concept that complex systems are… well… complex. That is, just pulling a lever or two on the "input" is not guaranteed to get you either the results you want, nor assure you won’t get worse results in some other way. This is easy to recognize as the not-a-law "law of unintended consequences," but very difficult to apply critically to grand ideas by charismatic visionaries with a talent for public relations- the somewhat crass art that has become the central skill requirement in modern politics.

This is one of my objections to the conceit of centralized economic policy. "I’ll just pour some cash in here and we’ll be all good," sounds great (particularly to the people getting the cash). An economy is, most obviously, a complex system. Thus, things are rarely this simple. But if you think that’s complex, try weather. Bill Gates wants to, according to Tech Flash. Bill (or proxies therefor) has filed patents I am better leaving Tech Flash to describe:

Microsoft’s chairman is among the inventors listed on a new batch of patent applications that propose using large fleets of vessels to suppress hurricanes through various methods of mixing warm water from the surface of the ocean with colder water at greater depths. The idea is to decrease the surface temperature, reducing or eliminating the heat-driven condensation that fuels the giant storms.

Snide comments about the Democratic Hurricane Making Device (it’s only a reversal of the process described by the patent after all) are left to the reader.

One of the patent filings proposes paying for the equipment through the sale of insurance policies in hurricane-prone areas, in addition to funding from state, federal and local government agencies.

Sounds almost… evil. "Haven’t paid your premiums? Oops, looks like vessels 1030-2100 are having mechanical problems!"

That’s far fetched, of course. The deeper issue from my perspective is still one of conceit. "Hurricanes are caused by warm surface water. Let’s just cool the surface water. Problem solved." Not quite, I suspect.

Who exactly would be liable for the sudden weather changes on the African West Coast?

[Art Credit (top): Searete


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Zero Hedge

10-Year Treasury Yield Plunges To Just 1 Basis Point Away From Recession "Tipping Point"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After more than a month of shocking complacency (because what, central banks will somehow print antibodies and "fix" the covid pandemic which will restore collapsing global supply chains?) traders are "suddenly" realizing that the coronavirus outbreak contains a significant likelihood of impact to the global economy and the potential to become a black bat, pardon, black swan type event. An event which could quickly spiral into a US - and global - recession.

How to determine if a recession is coming? One place to wat...



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Phil's Favorites

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



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Biotech & Health

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

 

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

It is critical to learn more about SARS-CoV-2, including its source and why transmission appears to be more efficient than with previous coronaviruses. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Marc-Antoine De La Vega, Université Laval

With an increasing number of confirmed cases in China and 24 other countries, the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus (now known as SARS-CoV-2) looks concerning to many. As of Feb. 19, the latest numbers listed 74,280 confirmed cases including 2,006 deaths. Four of these de...



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Members' Corner

Why do people believe con artists?

 

Why do people believe con artists?

Would you buy medicine from this man? Carol M. Highsmith/Wikimedia Commons

Courtesy of Barry M. Mitnick, University of Pittsburgh

What is real can seem pretty arbitrary. It’s easy to be fooled by misinformation disguised as news and deepfake videos showing people doing things they never did or said. Inaccurate information – even deliberately wrong informatio...



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The Technical Traders

Gold Rallies As Fear Take Center Stage

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Gold has rallied extensively from the lows near $1560 over the past 2 weeks.  At first, this rally didn’t catch too much attention with traders, but now the rally has reached new highs above $1613 and may attempt a move above $1750 as metals continue to reflect the fear in the global markets.

We’ve been warning our friends and followers of the real potential in precious metals for many months – actually since early 2018.  Our predictive modeling system suggests Gold will rally above $1650 very quickly, then possibly stall a bit before continuing higher to target the $1750 range.

The one thing all skilled traders must consider is the longer-term fear that is build...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Precious Metals Eyeing Breakout Despite US Dollar Strength

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Gold and silver prices have been on the rise in early 2020 as investors turn to precious metals as geopolitical concerns and news of coronavirus hit the airwaves.

The rally in gold has been impressive, with prices surging past $1600 this week (note silver is nearing $18.50).

What’s been particularly impressive about the Gold rally is that it has unfolded despite strength in the US Dollar.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of Gold to the US Dollar Index. As you can see, this ratio has traded in a rising channel over the past 4 years.

The Gold/US Dollar ratio is currently attempting a breakout of this rising channel at (1).

This would come on further ...



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Insider Scoop

68 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Trans World Entertainment Corporation (NASDAQ: TWMC) shares climbed 120.5% to $7.72 after the company disclosed that its subsidiary etailz entered into a deal with Encina for $25 million 3-year secured revolving credit facility.
  • Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLDX) fell 39.8% to $3.1744. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage on Celldex Therapeutics with an Overweight rating and a $8 price target.
  • TSR, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSRI) gained 36.2% to $8.17.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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ValueWalk

What US companies are saying about coronavirus impact

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the coronavirus outbreak coinciding with the U.S. earnings seasons, it is only normal to expect companies to talk about this deadly virus in their earnings conference calls. In fact, many major U.S. companies not only talked about coronavirus, but also warned about its potential impact on their financial numbers.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Coronavirus impact: many US companies unclear

According to ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 02:18:22 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Wall of worry, or cliff of despair!



Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 06:54:30 AM

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Comment: Interesting.. Hitler good for the German DAX when he was winning! They believed .. until th...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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