Posts Tagged ‘weather’

Weekly Unemployment Claims At 469,000; Prepare for Friday’s BLS Snow Job

Weekly Unemployment Claims At 469,000; Prepare for Friday’s BLS Snow Job

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds are investigating the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report for March 4, 2010.

In the week ending Feb. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 469,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 498,000. The 4-week moving average was 470,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 474,250.

Weekly Unemployment Claims 

The weekly claims numbers are volatile so it’s best to focus on the trend in the 4-week moving average. That 4-week average has not show any improvement for quite some time.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims Detail

The 4-week moving average of claims for the last three weeks is above where it was on December 12, 2009 and just slightly better than it was on December 5, 2009. By this measure, the recovery has stalled.

Blaming The Weather

A week ago in "Nascent" Recovery or "Nascent" Economic Collapse? I noted how economists were blaming the weather for last week’s rise in weekly claims and possible jump in the monthly job report.

Weather Related Questions

I have a few simple questions for all the dim-bulb economists now blaming the weather:

  • "Did you not know there was a snowstorm on the East coast?"
  • "If you did, then why didn’t you factor it in to your estimates?"
  • "How can you be surprised by something you knew?"

Bernanke’s Snow Job

To refresh your memory, last week Bernanke blamed the weather for the jump in claims and warned about overinterpreting the data.

From Yahoo Finance Jobless claims rise due to weather-related factors.

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee that the snowstorms are likely to have a short-term — but not permanent — effect on unemployment and layoffs. He said policymakers will "have to be careful about not overinterpreting" the upcoming data."

Summers Shovels Snow

Inquiring minds are reading Summers Shovels Snow on Winter’s Job Prospects by Caroline Baum.

Summers came out of virtual retirement Tuesday to tell CNBC the blizzards last month were likely to distort February’s employment statistics. It’s “very important to look past whatever the next figures are to gauge the underlying trends,” the White House economic adviser said in a


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The Microsoft Hurricane Creation Machine

Fascinating.  Can Bill Gates control the weather?  Let’s call that (another) Plan C.

The Microsoft Hurricane Creation Machine

Courtesy of finem respice

Submitted by ep 
sea water mix, hurricanes, mixing warm and cold water

It is difficult to connect with the concept that complex systems are… well… complex. That is, just pulling a lever or two on the "input" is not guaranteed to get you either the results you want, nor assure you won’t get worse results in some other way. This is easy to recognize as the not-a-law "law of unintended consequences," but very difficult to apply critically to grand ideas by charismatic visionaries with a talent for public relations- the somewhat crass art that has become the central skill requirement in modern politics.

This is one of my objections to the conceit of centralized economic policy. "I’ll just pour some cash in here and we’ll be all good," sounds great (particularly to the people getting the cash). An economy is, most obviously, a complex system. Thus, things are rarely this simple. But if you think that’s complex, try weather. Bill Gates wants to, according to Tech Flash. Bill (or proxies therefor) has filed patents I am better leaving Tech Flash to describe:

Microsoft’s chairman is among the inventors listed on a new batch of patent applications that propose using large fleets of vessels to suppress hurricanes through various methods of mixing warm water from the surface of the ocean with colder water at greater depths. The idea is to decrease the surface temperature, reducing or eliminating the heat-driven condensation that fuels the giant storms.

Snide comments about the Democratic Hurricane Making Device (it’s only a reversal of the process described by the patent after all) are left to the reader.

One of the patent filings proposes paying for the equipment through the sale of insurance policies in hurricane-prone areas, in addition to funding from state, federal and local government agencies.

Sounds almost… evil. "Haven’t paid your premiums? Oops, looks like vessels 1030-2100 are having mechanical problems!"

That’s far fetched, of course. The deeper issue from my perspective is still one of conceit. "Hurricanes are caused by warm surface water. Let’s just cool the surface water. Problem solved." Not quite, I suspect.

Who exactly would be liable for the sudden weather changes on the African West Coast?

[Art Credit (top): Searete


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Q+A: Boris Johnson tests positive for coronavirus - what happens now?

 

Q+A: Boris Johnson tests positive for coronavirus – what happens now?

He’s felt better. PA.

Courtesy of Nicholas Allen, Royal Holloway

Boris Johnson, the British prime minister, has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. In a recorded video message, Johnson said he had developed “mild symptoms” and is now in self-isolation. Here are the main issues at play for the UK in this time of crisis.

Will Boris Johnson continue as prime minister?

Johnson has made it clear that he will continue to oversee the government’...



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Zero Hedge

25-Year-Old California Man With No Underlying Conditions Dies Of COVID-19

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While coronavirus deaths have primarily been in those above 50-years-old, the disease has also been sending younger people to the ICU in larger than expected numbers - and in some cases, claiming younger victims.

In France, doctors have reported that 50% of ICU patients are under 60-years-old, while in the Netherlands, half are under 50.

Nearly 50% of c...



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Insider Scoop

'Psyched': Hawaii Considers Resolution For Shrooms, Champignon Eyes Ketamine Products

Courtesy of Benzinga

Psyched is a bi-monthly column covering the most important developments in the industry of medicinal psychedelics. We hope you follow us periodically as we report on the growth of this exciting new industry.

Champignon Brands Buys IP Company and Adds Ketamine and New Formulations To Its Portfolio

On March 19, Champignon Brands Inc. (CSE: SHRM) (OTC: SHRMF), a Canadian healt...



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The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Broadest Of All Stock Indices Testing Critical Support, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the broadest indices in the states remains in a long-term bullish trend, where a critical support test is in play.

The chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years.

The index has spent the majority of the past three decades inside of rising channel (1). It hit the top of this multi-decade channel to start off the year, where it created a monthly bearish reversal pattern.

Weakness the past 2-months has the index testing rising support and the December 2018 lows at (2).

Joe...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus treatments and vaccines - research on 3 types of antivirals and 10 different vaccines is being fast-tracked

 

Coronavirus treatments and vaccines – research on 3 types of antivirals and 10 different vaccines is being fast-tracked

Scientific research on the novel coronavirus has progressed at unprecedented speed. Mongkolchon Akesin / Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ignacio López-Goñi, Universidad de Navarra

Just three months after China first notified the World Health Organization about a deadly new coronavirus, studies of numerous antiviral t...



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Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tested As A Safe Haven After Biggest Stock Crash Since 2009

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Horus Hughes via CoinTelegraph.com,

Gold and Bitcoin react to global panic

Amid all of yesterday's chaos in bond, commodity, and stock markets, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropping below 0.5% for the first time in history - a strong indicator that investors are desperately looking for safe harbors - two supposed safe-havens in 'alternative currencies' behaved qui...



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Members' Corner

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

 

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

We talk Trump, Mogilevich, Epstein, Giuliani, Fred Trump, Roy Cohn, and more.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

(Originally published on Feb. 21, 20.)

...

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ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

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Promotions

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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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