Posts Tagged ‘Yi Gang’

Thrilling Thursday Morning

And we are off!

AA beat earnings yesterday and the dollar continued to dive to the lowest level since July of 2008, when the $168Bn Bush stimulus package was considered highly inflationary but that didn’t stop oil from diving from $147.90 on July 1st all the way down to $35.13 in December and it didn’t stop gold from falling from $989.60 all the way down to $681 as quickly as October.  Gold has me particularly worried at the moment because half the investors are piling into low interest T-Bills and half the investors are putting all their money into shiny bits of metal and no matter what happens, half the investors are going to be very, very wrong.

Nonetheless, today seemed as good a time as any to put up a new Watch List for Members as we are way too bearish if we are going to make new closing highs and we need to balance out with some more bullish positions.  We’ll be looking for action that beats our best September closes of Dow 9,829, S&P 1,071, Nas 2,146,  NYSE 7,047 and RUT 620 to confirm that this really is a new rally and not just the double top we’ve been thinking it was.  Our plan for today is to roll our short plays along as October if we are clearing those levels but, otherwise, we will simply be scaling in and rolling our long put covers higher.

My overriding concern is still that the dollar is way too low and although it’s making China happy (their Yuan is pegged to the dollar so Chinese exports are super-cheap again), it’s making Japan miserable and Europe is starting to get very nervous as well.  Remember that China played this perfectly as they stockpiled 50% of the world’s annual supply of copper earlier this year as well as many other precious metals and then they began making comments that took down the dollar, giving them a huge windfall on their trading. 

Of course China is only the 7th largest Soveriegn Wealth Fund playing our markets with the cash we’ve sent them over the years.  China’s 3 SWFs rank only behind the UAS combined $709Bn from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the ICD.  Saudi Arabia’s has just the one $431Bn SAMA Foreign Holdings to represent their interest in global commodity bidding.  China and the UAE are eclipsed only by our own Goldman Sachs (technically not a government fund despite the…
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Phil's Favorites

Brexit: the last time MPs were given indicative votes to break a deadlock, they failed

 

Brexit: the last time MPs were given indicative votes to break a deadlock, they failed

Deadlocked. Pajor Pawel/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Martin Farr, Newcastle University

One of the many ironies thrown up in the course of Brexit has been just how controversial attempts by parliament – the UK’s supreme constitutional authority – to take back control have been.

First, MPs insisted on holding a “meaningful vote” on the government’s draft Brexit deal. Then they insisted that the prime minister must return to parliament within three days with a new plan after they ...



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Zero Hedge

IBM Jumps On Guidance Boost Despite Revenue Slide, Massive Addbacks, Bizarre Tax Rate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

IBM is back to its revenue declining, non-GAAP-EPS-beating-through-low-tax-gimmick ways.

With Wall Street expecting IBM to report (non-GAAP) EPS of $4.82 in Q4, the company "beat" by the tiniest of margins, reporting non-GAAP, adjusted EPS of $4.87, a 5% drop from last year.

So far so good, but as usual, there was a gaping difference between GAAP and non-GAAP, and in this case it was more than double, with the company reporting a paltry $2.15 in GAAP EPS, more than 50% below the Non-GAAP number. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P and Crude both testing key breakout levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The correlation between Crude Oil and the S&P 500 has been rather high over the last 100-days, as each looks to have peaked at the same time around the 1st of October at (1).

After peaking together in October, Crude fell over 40% and the S&P nearly declined 20%, with both bottoming on Christmas Eve at each (2).

Both have experienced counter-trend rallies since the lows, as Crude is up 23% and the S&P 13%.

These rallies have both testing dual resist...



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Insider Scoop

Cowen Suits Up With Nike, Looks To Outperform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NKE Consumer Discretionary Q4 Earnings: U.S. Consumer Appears Strong Amid Heightened Global Uncertainty Golf Equipmen...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 20, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

After entering the week quite overbought, indexes took a small retreat Monday before hurling back upwards.  This is typical of the “V” shaped moves up after any significant selloff, we’ve seen most of the past decade and watching them unfurl is quite amazing actually.  Thought maybe this time would be “different” but not so much.  So two week’s ago we asked “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problem in 1 speech?” – and thus far the market has answered resoundingly yes.  The word of the year thus far in 2019 is “patience” as that simple insert into a speech change the whole complexion of everything.

China has also been busy stimulating; on Tuesday:

An announcement from the People’s Bank of China that ...



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ValueWalk

Everyone Else Is Selling Stocks, So Is It Time To Buy?

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After a difficult few trading days in the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks are bouncing back with meaningful gains on Monday following Friday’s strong rally. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 were all up by more than half a percent by midday. It looks like investors could be taking advantage of the end-of-the-year declines, but is this a wise time to be buying?

Trying to time the bottom of the market will almost always be a fool’s errand, but one firm suggests equities could have much farther to fall before they hit bottom in 2019.

...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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