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Top Trades for Fri, 06 May 2016 12:25 – GOGO

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Top Trades for Fri, 06 May 2016 12:25 – GOGO
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I am warming up to GOGO again.  We played them from down ($10) here successfully at one point and now they are beaten up again but earnings were very nice and they have good contracts going forward:

Gogo beats Q1 expectations as revenues climb 23%

  • Gogo (NASDAQ:GOGO) was up as much as 2.7% in early going but has sacrificed gains, now -1.6% after its Q1 earnings report beat expectations on top and bottom lines following some recent customer wins with Delta and International Airlines Group.
  • Segment profits in North American commercial aviation and business aviation combined rose 29% to $34M. EBITDA of $14.5M was up 76% and beat an expected $13.6M.
  • Service revenue was $118.7M (up 24.4%); and equipment revenue was $23M (up 14.5%). Service revenue by segment: Commercial Aviation-North America, $83.4M (up 15.6%); Commercial Aviation-Rest of World, $4.6M (up 226%); Business Aviation, $30.7M (up 40.8%).
  • In operations, aircraft equivalents during the period rose to 2,512 from a year-ago 2,155. Average monthly service revenue per aircraft equivalent fell to $11,137 from $11,163.
  • Average revenue per session rose to $13.05 from $11.73, and connectivity take rate dipped to 6.5% from a year-ago 7.2%.
  • The company affirmed full-year guidance for total revenue of $575M-$595M and EBITDA of $55M-$65M, both in line with expectations.
  • Press Release

They are only an $850M company down here ($9.91) but very easy to justify once they turn a profit and they've got some new deals locked in on the new (faster) system:

PR Newswire

CHICAGO, May 6, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — Gogo Inc. (Nasdaq: GOGO (GLGDF)), the global leader in providing broadband connectivity solutions and wireless entertainment to the aviation industry, today announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2016.

http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnvar/20140902/142006

First Quarter 2016 Consolidated Financial Results

  • Revenue increased to $141.7 million, up 23% from $115.5 million in Q1 2015. Service revenue increased to $118.7 million, up 24% from $95.4 million in Q1 2015.
  • Combined segment profit of CA-NA and BA increased to $34.0 million, up 29% from $26.4 million in Q1 2015.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $14.5 million, up 76% or $6.3 million from $8.2 million in Q1 2015.
  • Cash CAPEX of $24.2 million was down from $32.0 million in Q1 2015, primarily due to the timing of airborne equipment purchases.
  • As of March 31, 2016, we had cash and cash equivalents of $312.7 million.

"We are thrilled to announce 2Ku awards by Delta Air Lines and International Airlines Group, including British Airways (BAIRY), Iberia (IBKC), and Aer Lingus, bringing our total 2Ku awards to over 1,000," said Gogo's President and CEO Michael Small. "We also are excited by the commercial launch of 2Ku on AeroMexico. Based on airline demand, we are accelerating 2Ku deployment and expect to exceed our 2016 target of 75 installs."

  • Aircraft online increased by 113 to reach 2,500, and approximately 230 aircraft were awarded but not yet installed as of March 31, 2016.
  • Gogo awarded but not yet installed 2Ku aircraft increased to more than 1,000 aircraft including recent awards.
  • Delta Air Lines increased its total commitment to install 2Ku to more than 600 aircraft.
  • Gogo partnered with Airbus Corporate Jet Centre to install 2Ku technology on A350 aircraft on a retrofit basis, allowing airlines to receive new aircraft from Airbus with connectivity equipment already installed.
  • Segment loss increased to $19.7 million, up 8% from $18.3 million in Q1 2015, primarily due to higher engineering, design and development expenses related to the roll out of our next generation 2Ku technology.

Though they lost $24M for the quarter, they have $312M in cash (one year ago it was $400M) and, as noted, they are building a whole new network, so it's R&D/CapEx losses while their revenues grow.  

So, as a trade for the OOP, I like:

  • Sell 10 2018 $10 puts at $3.80 ($3,800)
  • Buy 20 Jan (2017) $8 calls for $3.10 ($6,200)
  • Sell 20 Jan (2017) $13 calls for $1.10 ($2,200)

That's net $200 on the $10,000 spread so $9,800 of potential upside and our risk is owning 1,000 shares of GOGO for net $10.20 or $10,200.  If the stock isn't over $15 by Aug, we'll roll our long calls out to 2018 and sell more short calls but I think they are 2 reports away from a nice profit at most.  

In the LTP lets:

Sell 20 2018 $10 puts for $3.80 ($7,200)