Crypto/Soma – Yes, just after they declared it dead, it's started getting traction again.
CPRI/CRS – We played KORS when they were a lot cheaper, they are not a bad brand and they are coming through a turnaround investment that seems to be working but I'd want to see Q1 earnings before jumping in. Still, they made almost $600M last year and, at $46.50, you are buying the company for $7Bn, so a nice retailer to have in your portfolio for the long term.
The dropped with the sector back in Nov but also because they paid $2.1Bn for Versace, which seemed a bit much but it as all part of their overall rebranding strategy, so you either believe in management or you don't. They are actually very small in Asia (19% of revenues) and I think that's a plus going forward as those "Crazy Rich Asians" do love their luxury brands.
As a trade on them, I like:
- Sell 5 2021 $40 puts for $4.80 ($2,400)
- Buy 10 2021 $35 calls for $17 ($17,000)
- Sell 10 2021 $50 calls for $9.25 ($9,250)
That's net $6,350 on the $15,000 spread that's $11,000 in the money to start so the "only" $8,650 (136%) profit potential is mitigated by the fact that it's very likely to pay off and, of course, if they go lower, THEN you can sell 5 more puts and use that $2,500(ish) to roll your 10 longs $5-10 lower.
Speaking of retail, I owe Winston one more big winner and that's going to be M at $24.40. That's $7.5Bn and if you like CPRI for that price, M makes $1Bn a year (50% more) and is sitting on about $16Bn in real estate or $21Bn according to Starboard, who are an activist investor in M.
Interestingly, M pays a $1.51 dividend, which is 6.5% at the moment so it's actually good for a dividend play so, since I'd LOVE to own the stock at $24.40, I can sell very aggressive puts where my only downside is owning the stock and collecting dividends.
So, for the OOP, let's add:
- Sell 10 M 2021 $28 puts for $7.50 ($7,500)
- Buy 25 M 2021 $23 calls for $4.75 ($11,875)
- Sell 25 M 2021 $30 calls for $2.40 ($6,000)
That's still a net $1,625 credit on the $17,500 spread so the upside potential is $19,125 (1,176% on negative cash) at just $30 so, even if assigned, the net is still $1.625 less than $28 or $26.37 and then we can sell $23 calls for $4.75 and drop our net to $21.62, about 10% below the current price. Also, if M takes off, we can sell 5 or 10 short calls for extra cash along the way.
FTR/Robert – I just can't see a BK playing out over the next 3-5 years at least.