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Thursday, April 25, 2024

Top Trades for Thu, 10 Jan 2019 13:45 – 9 Trade Adjustments

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Top Trades for Thu, 10 Jan 2019 13:45 – 9 Trade Adjustments
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Hey, I finally found that Post where we discussed 9 Trade Ideas to Make $101,875 into Jan expirations.  I thought it was a post but it was from our Sept 26th Chat and was sent out as a Top Trade Alert that day too.  Keep in mind we were bearish and looking for a big pullback and the idea was to add these things to the LTP as an additional hedge.  Let's see how they did – hopefully educational (all copied from the same comment).  KEEP IN MIND THESE ARE NOT NEW TRADE IDEAS but I will make new adjustment red so they stand out:

Adding some holiday income (and hedges) for Q4 with a set that you can start a whole new portfolio with:  

In the LTP, we have BBBY:

Short Put 2020 17-JAN 17.50 PUT [BBBY @ $19.09 $0.19] -20 1/8/2018 (478) $-5,600 $2.80 $-0.14 $-2.20     $2.67 $-0.18 $270 4.8% $-5,330
Long Call 2020 17-JAN 15.00 CALL [BBBY @ $19.09 $0.19] 30 4/20/2018 (478) $13,950 $4.65 $1.15     $5.80 $3,450 24.7% $17,400
Short Call 2020 17-JAN 22.50 CALL [BBBY @ $19.09 $0.19] -10 4/20/2018 (478) $-2,200 $2.20 $0.25     $2.45 $-250 -11.4% $-2,450

Let's sell 20 of the BBBY Jan $20 calls for $1.50 ($3,000) in the LTP and also in the OOP

That was easy money.  

As a new trade on CAKE for the LTP:

  • Sell 10 2021 $45 puts for $5.30 ($5,300) 
  • Buy 25 2021 $45 ($13.80)/$60 ($7) bull call spreads for $6.80 ($17,000)
  • Sell 15 Jan $55 calls for $2.85 ($4,275) 

That's net $7,425 on the $37,500 spread and we have 8 more quarters to sell.  

So my bottom call at the time was $45-$5.30 ($39.70) and we took the spread, and sold the short-term calls, which are winners.  

Long Call 2021 15-JAN 45.00 CALL [CAKE @ $46.13 $0.02] 25 9/28/2018 (736) $34,625 $13.85 $-5.85 $13.85     $8.00 $-0.07 $-14,625 -42.2% $20,000
Short Call 2021 15-JAN 60.00 CALL [CAKE @ $46.13 $0.02] -25 9/26/2018 (736) $-18,000 $7.20 $-4.00     $3.20 $-0.23 $10,000 55.6% $-8,000
Short Put 2021 15-JAN 45.00 PUT [CAKE @ $46.13 $0.02] -10 10/4/2018 (736) $-5,300 $5.30 $1.90     $7.20 $-1,900 -35.8% $-7,200
Short Call 2019 18-JAN 55.00 CALL [CAKE @ $46.13 $0.02] -10 9/26/2018 (8) $-3,000 $3.00 $-2.95     $0.05 $2,950 98.3% $-50

Overall, the position is down $3,575 so we're in the $37,500 spread for now $11,000 but we KNEW that was going to happen – the loss is temporary based on a sell-off we expected and the question is, what do we now do to take advantage of it?  

MECHANICALLY, we're going to roll the 2012 $45 calls ($8.10) down to the $35 calls ($13.10) for $5 ($12,500) and now we have a $62,500 spread that's $27,500 in the money for $23,500 and, of course, as CAKE moves higher, we will be able to sell short-term short calls to generate income.  

So now I look at the April $50s and see they are $1.60 so those are not worth selling but it indicates I could generate easily $1,600/qtr for 8 quarters or $12,800 so we can look forward to getting 1/2 our money back while we wait.  Since the short $60 calls are down to $3.20 – there's no harm in buying back 10 of $25 there for $3,200 and hopefully we can resell them for more later but, if not, the part cover allows us to sell 50% more short-term calls with almost no risk – so we can expect a return of $6,400 on our $3,200 investment anyway.  

In the LTP, our CMG position is:

Short Call 2019 18-JAN 460.00 CALL [CMG @ $465.60 $-0.02] -20 8/27/2018 (114) $-123,600 $61.80 $-24.50 $-139.69     $37.30 $-1.20 $49,000 39.6% $-74,600
Long Call 2020 17-JAN 460.00 CALL [CMG @ $465.60 $-0.02] 20 8/27/2018 (478) $203,000 $101.50 $-22.55     $78.95 $-45,100 -22.2% $157,900
Short Call 2020 17-JAN 580.00 CALL [CMG @ $465.60 $-0.02] -20 8/27/2018 (478) $-97,600 $48.80 $-14.60     $34.20 $29,200 29.9% $-68,400

No change to that one but note that we have an $89,500 position (current net of the bull call spread) that pays $240,000 at $580 so massive $150,000 upside potential above $460 and we're collecting $74,600 (current price of short calls) over the next 3 months on the short calls.  That's 83% of the cost of the spread!  Great for a new trade but margin-heavy and, if it goes wrong (only CMG blasting higher would hurt us) you have to have the firepower to DD on the longs, sell puts and roll the short calls.

With CMG, we already took the profits on that position in November and now we have a new one we're working on.

As a new play on GCI:

  • Sell 30 GCI April $10 puts for $1 ($3,000) 
  • Buy 50 GCI April $10 (0.95)/12.50 (0.20) bull call spreads for 0.75 ($3,750)
  • Sell 30 GCI Jan $10 calls for 0.75 ($2,250) 

That's a net $1,500 credit on the $12,500 spread so $14,000 upside potential but most likely we'll have to give some back to the short caller but, as long as GCI doesn't pop $12 in 3 months – we'll be in great shape.

Quite the gyration but right on target so the short calls will be worthless next week (now 0.10) and the spread is a work in progress but it's all going according to plan now.

In the LTP, we currently have 5 short GILD 2020 $70 puts we sold for $8.55, now $6.35. 

  • Let's buy those back and sell 15 of the GILD 2021 $67.50 puts for $8 ($12,000).
  • Buy 25 2021 $65 ($18.50)/80 ($11.50) bull call spreads for $7 ($17,500) 
  • Sell 15 Jan $77.50 calls for $3.30 ($4,950)

Ignoring the profit on the original short calls, the new trade is net $550 on the $37,500 spread with 8 more quarters to sell going forward.  

Again our net for the puts was $59.50 and that was pretty much where we dropped to.  Keep in mind these are the numbers I would buy the whole company for, a holdover from my M&A days, so I'm pretty good with my targets – which is also why I tend not to panic just because our downside target is being hit.

Once again, the short Jan calls do their job and we still like GILD so we're going to roll our 25 2021 $65 calls at $11.70 ($29,250) to the $55 calls at $17 ($42,500) for $5.30 as that's close enough and we've widened our spread by $25,000 for $13,250.  So now it's a $62,500 spread that's $30,000 in the money and we've paid net $13,800 for it and we can sell 10 of the March $70s for $2.50 ($2,500) so we're looking at $20,000 of potential sales easily down the road, which would once again make this a free spread!  

In the LTP, we have 20 short GPRO 2020 $8 puts at $3.75 and those are now $2.  We've been waiting for them to get moving and now it's starting.

  • Let's add 40 of the 2021 $5 ($3)/10 ($1.10) bull call spreads at $1.90 ($7,600)
  • Sell 20 Jan $8 calls for 0.45 ($900) 

That nets us into the full spread $20,000 spread for $1,000 with 8 more quarterlies to sell.

More easy money on the short calls and now we have our spread and the $5s are now $1.45 and the $3s are $2.45 so we should spend $1 to roll the 2021 $5 calls down to the $3 calls and buy back the short $10 calls for 0.50 and wait and see what happens since it's not a big risk.

 

M has come down far enough to be interesting but let's start small into earnings:

  • Sell 10 M 2021 $30 puts for $5.25 ($5,250)
  • Buy 15 M 2021 $30 ($9)/$40 ($5) bull call spreads for net $4 ($6,000) 
  • Sell 10 M Jan $35 calls for $2.70 ($2,700)

That's a net $1,950 credit on the $15,000 spread and we have 8 more volatile quarters to sell.  If it goes down – we have a credit, so we don't care and, if it goes up, we're happy to buy more longs and roll the short caller.  

Well, success on the short calls but our spread got crushed.  Fortunately, it was a small one and, as noted this morning, we still like M so now we can get aggressive as we had no real commitment on the next credit spread with just 10 short puts ($30,000) as our worst case.  We're going to roll the 15 2021 $30 calls at $3.70 ($5,550) to 25 of the 2021 $20 calls at $8 ($20,000) and we'll buy back the 15 short $40 calls for $1.75 ($2,675) as they are pointless and we'll wait for a bounce before selling calls again.  Now we're in the 25 2021 $20 calls with the 10 short puts for net $15,175 or about $6 per long so $26 is our break-even and that's where we are! 

Of course, once we sell short calls, that number will start dropping so again, this is how our positions are DESIGNED to function.  It would have been nice to make $13,050 with no worries but that didn't happen but now we only need M to get back to $30 (our prior entry) and we net back $25,000 for almost our original gain goal and there's another $25,000 at our old target of $40 if things go really well – 3x what we would have made if just the original play had gone perfectly so let's hear it for imperfections!  

Also, the 2021 $30 puts are now $9 and we have tons of cash and margin so let's just sell 10 of the 2021 $25 puts for $6 ($6,000) with a stop on the $30 puts at $11, at which point we'd buy those back and sell 10 more $25 puts for probably $7.50 but hopefully we head higher and it's just free money.

  • We've been waiting for PSA to get back to $200 so let's sell 5 2021 $200 puts for $24 ($12,000) 

Well, they can't all be shorts!  

TGT is interesting as a short entry as I think the consumers are having trouble and it will start to show up this Q.  What makes them attractive is the high premiums we can collect for the LTP:

  • Sell 10 TGT Jan $85 calls for $6.20 ($6,200) 
  • Buy 10 TGT 2021 $80 ($17)/95 ($10) bull call spreads for $7 ($7,000) 

Just an initial entry and if they go down, we have a $15,000 spread for net $800 and then we'll sell some puts to roll down the long calls.  If they go up, we're happy to buy more longs and roll the short calls along.

Once again, the short calls were easy money and the short $95 calls are just $2.20 so no reason not to buy those back for $2,200 and the 2021 $80 calls are $5.80 ($5,800) and the $70s are $9.40 and the $60s are $14 so let's go for the $60s for +$8.20 ($8,200) but no doubling down until we feel better about them but we will sell 5 2021 $65 puts for $10 ($5,000) .  

Net net we're getting another $400 credit for this adjustment so now net $300 but this time we're obligated to buy 500 shares of TGT for $65 ($32,500), which is 1/3 of an allocation block and we have 10 long $60 calls that are $7,500 in the money.  Gosh I love it when our positions go lower!  

In the LTP and OOP, THC did so well that we cashed them in but now back to a buy for the LTP:

  • Sell 10 Jan $28 calls for $3 ($3,000) 
  • Sell 10 2021 $23 puts for $5.50 ($5,500) 
  • Buy 15 2021 $27 ($10.50)/37 ($6.50) bull call spreads for $4 ($6,000)

Once again we have a net $3,500 credit on the $15,000 spread and 8 more quarters to sell premium.

Yet another winner on the short calls so we've collected our full $101,875 and then some and we used far less than that to make improvements on these leftover legs.  I love THC so of course we're going to get aggressive now and roll down the 15 2021 $27 calls at $6 ($9,000) to the 2021 $15 calls at $11 ($16,500) and we'll buy 10 more for $11,000 so now we're spending $18,500 less the original $3,500 credit is $15,000 and we have 25 2021 $15 calls that are $6 ($15,000) in the money and we're only 3/5 covered so we can sell 10 of the May $24 calls for $2.10 ($2,100) at least 4 times so we can look forward to cutting our net in half over time (but not selling when this low.  

So that was a very easy way to make $101,875 in 3 months and, if the market recovers, we'll make another $200,000 on the way up!