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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

It's rate hike time!

We have a Federal Reserve Rate Decision at 2pm and a hike is very widely expected but whatever Powell says in the subsequent conference afterwards is likely to affect the market going forward.  Even more importantly, the Fed will release their first economic estimates for 2021 and we'll get to see if they think the economy is going to grow fast enough to justify these runaway market prices.  Here's a preview from Market Watch.

Keep in mind that Trump's economic projection hinge on having better than 3% increases in GDP while 2% barely keeps up with inflation and, according to even the Fed's conservative inflation projections – loses ground to it.  As noted in yesterday's PSW Report, the Government had to borrow $156Bn in September just to keep the lights on and every 1% increase in interest rates costs us $200Bn in additional interest payments alone.  If the economy is stagnant and rates are rising – what are investors so excited about?

So, slowing economy, rising interest rates and, oh yes, a Trade War where, just yesterday, China's Commerce Minister Fu Ziying said that China won't sacrifice it's right to develop its economy for trade talks while US officials told farmers they will need to diversify away from the Chinese market in anticipation of a long, drawn-out conflict that's still in its early stages.

It’s normal for the U.S. and China to have trade disputes, but their common interests are much bigger than the problem areas, according to Fu. While the U.S. has a trade deficit with China, Chinese companies have a profit deficit with the U.S., he said.

China's economy is resilient and can resist the risks from the trade dispute, National Development and Reform Commission Vice Chairman Lian Weiliang said at the briefing. The nation will boost domestic consumption, investment and improve private business sentiment to counter the impact from the dispute with the U.S., and will also enhance cooperation with the European Union, Japan, Russia and Asean nations, he said.

Meanwhile, closer to home, US officials are also giving up on coming to terms with Canada and are now falling back on attempting to complete a bilateral agreement with Mexico – something Mexico has indicated they would prefer not to do.  “Canada’s not making concessions in areas we think are essential,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Tuesday at a conference on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

There's not much to do but wait and see what happens this afternoon – the trade issues will drag on for ages but at least the Fed Statement and conference will give us a tiny bit more clarity of what lies ahead. 

We'll be doing a Live Trading Webinar this afternoon at 1pm so we'll catch the Fed Statement live and hopefully find some good plays to make in the Futures.  At the moment, I still like shorting the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures below the 7,600 line with tight stops above but it's likely to be a crazy day – so be very careful.

 


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  1. Gen X starting to catch up in financial supremacy over baby boomers:

    People like Phil and I are sitting in between the 2 generations! 


  2. Price discovery in crisis:

    https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-you-dont-know-the-price-until-you-sell/

    As you know, if there are no buyers and you need to sell, you only have one option—lower your price.

    You might think that this situation will never apply to you.  You aren’t trading foreign illiquid securities, right?  But, what about something closer to home (literally).  If you are a homeowner and you think you will always be able to sell your home at a reasonable price, I would advise caution.  The Vanderbilts discovered this bitter truth after spending $11 million in 1892 to build the famed Marble House only to sell during the depths of the Great Depression for $100,000!  That is a 99% haircut on one of the most beautiful homes ever built.  [...]

    The best way to prevent yourself from selling at a loss is simple: have ample liquidity.  If you have large enough cash reserves (i.e. emergency savings) to support your liabilities during economic crises, you will never be forced to sell.  In fact, if you have enough cash on hand, you will be able to dictate the prices you can buy assets for.


  3. Good morning, All!

    Join us at 1pm for the weekly webinar!

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1831124859594023181


  4. Good Morning!


  5. Good morning!

    Dollar 93.96, we'll see if it can pop back over 94 but still way down for the last 2 months:

    2.5% is 625 Dow points and 70 S&P Points

    So about half the rally was simply a Dollar adjustment.

    Generations/StJ – Yeah, what's up with that?  Why don't we get our own generation?  

    Good point on price discovery.


  6. NKE – little dip…. I used to follow this years ago and sold out … looking to get back in. 


  7. NKE/Batman – Any disappointment at the ATH was likely to do this.

    Nike Slides as 'Just Do It' Campaign Fails to Boost Full-Year Earnings Estimates

     

     


  8. Generations / Phil – Maybe we should go for Baby X! 


  9. NKE / Phil – Looks to me like these guys are priced for perfection. Trading at 35x with project EPS growth of 14% doesn't look cheap to me. Might make sense around $70 but that's a big drop.


  10. IBM helping the Dow with a $180 price target.

    Gee, it's almost like UBS purposely stepped in to prop up the Dow, but that would be dishonest…

    Oh wait, here's a summary:

    Top 10 Primary Offense Types Penalty Total Number of Records
    interest rate benchmark manipulation $1,693,000,000 4
    toxic securities abuses $1,449,800,000 4
    tax violations $980,000,000 2
    banking violation $342,000,000 1
    investor protection violation $182,659,998 11
    price-fixing or anti-competitive practices $160,000,000 1
    economic sanction violation $101,719,850 4
    wage and hour violation $97,245,898 7
    securities issuance or trading violation $60,631,768 6
    financial institution supervision failures $15,500,000 2

    That's $5Bn in penalties so you'd think they'd change their ways but that's just the stuff they got caught doing and then convicted of while the stuff they got away with netted them $60Bn over the same period.  Ain't Capitalism grand?

    NKE/StJ – It's a retail company so it's worth 20x on a good day.  I'd rather not participate than pay these ridiculous prices for stocks.


  11. CTL/Phil- How's CTL looking now after a 9% dip because of the CFO jumping to T-Mobile?


  12. Dave CTL contrary to some members support for the stock I cut my loses quite some time back and I always have considered it as a loser.


  13. Adding some holiday income (and hedges) for Q4 with a set that you can start a whole new portfolio with:  

    In the LTP, we have BBBY:

    Short Put 2020 17-JAN 17.50 PUT [BBBY @ $19.09 $0.19] -20 1/8/2018 (478) $-5,600 $2.80 $-0.14 $-2.20     $2.67 $-0.18 $270 4.8% $-5,330
    Long Call 2020 17-JAN 15.00 CALL [BBBY @ $19.09 $0.19] 30 4/20/2018 (478) $13,950 $4.65 $1.15     $5.80 - $3,450 24.7% $17,400
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 22.50 CALL [BBBY @ $19.09 $0.19] -10 4/20/2018 (478) $-2,200 $2.20 $0.25     $2.45 - $-250 -11.4% $-2,450

    Let's sell 20 of the BBBY Jan $20 calls for $1.50 ($3,000) in the LTP and also in the OOP

    As a new trade on CAKE for the LTP:

    • Sell 10 2021 $45 puts for $5.30 ($5,300) 
    • Buy 25 2021 $45 ($13.80)/$60 ($7) bull call spreads for $6.80 ($17,000)
    • Sell 15 Jan $55 calls for $2.85 ($4,275) 

    That's net $7,425 on the $37,500 spread and we have 8 more quarters to sell.  

    In the LTP, our CMG position is:

    Short Call 2019 18-JAN 460.00 CALL [CMG @ $465.60 $-0.02] -20 8/27/2018 (114) $-123,600 $61.80 $-24.50 $-139.69     $37.30 $-1.20 $49,000 39.6% $-74,600
    Long Call 2020 17-JAN 460.00 CALL [CMG @ $465.60 $-0.02] 20 8/27/2018 (478) $203,000 $101.50 $-22.55     $78.95 - $-45,100 -22.2% $157,900
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 580.00 CALL [CMG @ $465.60 $-0.02] -20 8/27/2018 (478) $-97,600 $48.80 $-14.60     $34.20 - $29,200 29.9% $-68,400

    No change to that one but note that we have an $89,500 position (current net of the bull call spread) that pays $240,000 at $580 so massive $150,000 upside potential above $460 and we're collecting $74,600 (current price of short calls) over the next 3 months on the short calls.  That's 83% of the cost of the spread!  Great for a new trade but margin-heavy and, if it goes wrong (only CMG blasting higher would hurt us) you have to have the firepower to DD on the longs, sell puts and roll the short calls.  

    As a new play on GCI:

    • Sell 30 GCI April $10 puts for $1 ($3,000) 
    • Buy 50 GCI April $10 (0.95)/12.50 (0.20) bull call spreads for 0.75 ($3,750)
    • Sell 30 GCI Jan $10 calls for 0.75 ($2,250) 

    That's a net $1,500 credit on the $12,500 spread so $14,000 upside potential but most likely we'll have to give some back to the short caller but, as long as GCI doesn't pop $12 in 3 months – we'll be in great shape.

    In the LTP, we currently have 5 short GILD 2020 $70 puts we sold for $8.55, now $6.35. 

    • Let's buy those back and sell 15 of the GILD 2021 $67.50 puts for $8 ($12,000).
    • Buy 25 2021 $65 ($18.50)/80 ($11.50) bull call spreads for $7 ($17,500) 
    • Sell 15 Jan $77.50 calls for $3.30 ($4,950)

    Ignoring the profit on the original short calls, the new trade is net $550 on the $37,500 spread with 8 more quarters to sell going forward.  

    In the LTP, we have 20 short GPRO 2020 $8 puts at $3.75 and those are now $2.  We've been waiting for them to get moving and now it's starting.

    • Let's add 40 of the 2021 $5 ($3)/10 ($1.10) bull call spreads at $1.90 ($7,600)
    • Sell 20 Jan $8 calls for 0.45 ($900) 

    ?That nets us into the full spread $20,000 spread for $1,000 with 8 more quarterlies to sell.

    M has come down far enough to be interesting but let's start small into earnings:

    • Sell 10 M 2021 $30 puts for $5.25 ($5,250)
    • Buy 15 M 2021 $30 ($9)/$40 ($5) bull call spreads for net $4 ($6,000) 
    • Sell 10 M Jan $35 calls for $2.70 ($2,700)

    That's a net $1,950 credit on the $15,000 spread and we have 8 more volatile quarters to sell.  If it goes down – we have a credit, so we don't care and, if it goes up, we're happy to buy more longs and roll the short caller.  

    • We've been waiting for PSA to get back to $200 so let's sell 5 2021 $200 puts for $24 ($12,000) 

    TGT is interesting as a short entry as I think the consumers are having trouble and it will start to show up this Q.  What makes them attractive is the high premiums we can collect for the LTP:

    • Sell 10 TGT Jan $85 calls for $6.20 ($6,200) 
    • Buy 10 TGT 2021 $80 ($17)/95 ($10) bull call spreads for $7 ($7,000) 

    Just an initial entry and if they go down, we have a $15,000 spread for net $800 and then we'll sell some puts to roll down the long calls.  If they go up, we're happy to buy more longs and roll the short calls along.

    In the LTP and OOP, THC did so well that we cashed them in but now back to a buy for the LTP:

    • Sell 10 Jan $28 calls for $3 ($3,000) 
    • Sell 10 2021 $23 puts for $5.50 ($5,500) 
    • Buy 15 2021 $27 ($10.50)/37 ($6.50) bull call spreads for $4 ($6,000)

    Once again we have a net $3,500 credit on the $15,000 spread and 8 more quarters to sell premium.

    That's a nice $101,875 we plan to collect by Jan expirations if all goes well (it won't).  If you take out the high-margin CMG's $75,000 – it's still a nice $26,875 to pay for all those Christmas gifts!


  14. Phil correction on PSA it is sell  5 x 200 put on Jan 2021


  15. PSA/Yodi – Yes, thanks, it's the 2021 $200 short puts that are $24.  


  16. Phil/China: I saw this on Twitter re: the farmer bailout, and I had to laugh: 

    "We are borrowing money from China to pay our farmers to not sell their crops to China."


  17. GE WTF???

    every day a new low


  18. China/Tom – Sadly true.

    GE/Jabob – Sadly true.  

    The 2021 $10/15 bull call spread we rolled to last week at $2.15 (80) is now $1.90 ($15,200) and the 30 short 2021 $15 puts we sold for $3.50 are now $4.25 ($12,750).  Clearly entering into the $40,000 spread for net $2,450 with only an upside potential of $37,650 (1,535%) is far too scary to take a chance on a shaky company like GE, right?

    Our net on the new spread was $6,700 so our upside was only $43,300 (646%) but we already lost about $13,000 on the initial positions so we're in for about $20K on the $40K spread but, as a new trade – it's still kid of exciting!  

    They "only" made $800M last Q and project $8Bn for the full year which would be a p/e of 11.5 on a $98Bn valuation at $11.25.

    Year End 31st Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TTM 2018E 2019E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 144,121 110,137 116,639 115,158 119,687 120,468 122,480 122,508 123,433 -3.5%
    Operating Profit $m 16,203 8,592 10,991 8,141 9,961 -8,036 -8,643      
    Net Profit $m 13,641 13,058 15,233 -6,126 8,831 -5,786 -8,154 8,116 8,655  
    EPS Reported $ 1.38 0.73 0.92 0.14 1.00 -0.30 -0.41      
    EPS Normalised $ 1.33 0.56 0.87 0.28 0.98 0.71 -0.100 0.94 1.01 -11.7%
    EPS Growth % +36.4 -58.1 +57.1 -67.7 +246.3 -27.0   +31.9 +7.05  
    PE Ratio x           15.8 n/a 12.0 11.2  
    PEG x           0.49 n/a 1.70 1.02
    Profitability

    Unfortunately, there's no quick way to know if traders know something or if the fundamentals will win out over time – you need time for that and, in between, there's nothing that stops traders from panicking out of positions.

    Webinar time!


  19. I am not panicking but I have been getting slammed in GE since buying the stock and selling GE puts and calls at 28! 

    Yes, my break even is well below 18 now but seeing drop $1 or $2 on average every month might not be scary but sure has SUCKED!


  20. Phil

    BAK Braskem S.A. (BAK)

    Any trade on Brazil  using BAK  ?

    Thanks


  21. Phil – on the THC the 25/35 BCS trades for less than 4.  So  $2 more in the money for same (or even better price.. )


  22. GE/Jabob – Up for the day 2x more than it was down so unsucked?

    BAK/QC – It's a good steady company with steady growth but so are lots of US Chemical companies without all the political turmoil.  BAK has $56Bn in sales and $3Bn in profit and DWDP has $87Bn in sales and $9.6Bn in profit and there's slightly less chance of DWDP being taken over by the Government or being randomly taxed or penalized during a period of political turmoil but only SLIGHTLY because, well, Trump…

    THC/Rexx – Well, if you can get the better price – I'd certainly do that!  That's always true – I can only go by what I see at the time I'm writing something up – it's always good to look to see if there are better strikes when you are trading it live.


  23. Phil- Any futures trade from webinar? Thx


  24. ravi- he did a few NQ shorts but got out already


  25. Futures/Ravi – We're not getting much from Powell so no clear direction.  The /NQ shorts (thanks Dave) were just the same old play below 7,650 with tight stops above – I still like them as we get back near there.  Other than that – not much grabs me and the Dollar is all over the place, so a bit scary to play at the moment.

    I wonder if this will matter to anyone in the GOP?

    Third Woman Makes Allegations Against Nominee Kavanaugh

    A woman alleged in a sworn declaration Wednesday that she witnessed efforts by Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and others in the early 1980s to spike drinks and “cause girls to become inebriated” so they could be assaulted. She also alleged that she was a victim of a gang rape at a party at which Mr. Kavanaugh was present.

    The woman, Julie Swetnick, alleged that in 1981-82, she became aware of efforts by Mr. Kavanaugh and a high-school friend, Mark Judge, to “‘spike’ the ‘punch’” at house parties she attended with drugs “and/or grain alcohol” and subsequently “target” women.

    She said she had a “firm recollection” that at these house parties, boys lined up outside rooms “waiting for their ‘turn’ with a girl inside the room,” and that those boys included Judge Kavanaugh and Mr. Judge.

    In an MSNBC interview later Wednesday, Mr. Avenatti said Ms. Swetnick contacted his office in the past month and that he conducted an “extensive vetting process” of her allegations. He said he planned to share the identity of witnesses who could corroborate Ms. Swetnick’s account, and that he wished to share that information “immediately” with the FBI.

    Image result for kavanaugh rape cartoon


  26. ABX- gave away the merger gains…. gold stocks just not in favor for 2018…..


  27. Woops, now Powell is done we seem to be heading sharply lower.   I guess he didn't please anyone. 

    Fed Raises Rates, Signals One More Increase This Year

    The Fed will raise short-term rates by another quarter point, and officials signaled they want to continue lifting them through the next year to keep a strong economy on an even keel.

    Trump Accuses China of Trying to Interfere in U.S. Elections

    President Trump accused China of “attempting to interfere” in the 2018 midterm elections in a speech to the United Nations, saying that Beijing doesn’t want his party to win because of their growing trade dispute. 16741 minutes ago

    Farmers Say Aid Won’t Cover Tariff Damage

    The Trump administration has started compensating U.S. farmers for damage tariffs are doing to their business. Many farmers say the payments won’t make up for lost sales to China and other foreign markets they were counting on to buy their products. 79

    Only 45% of New York’s Public School Students Passed State Tests


  28. bbby ouch


  29. That's why we sold the calls! 


  30. good call


  31. Phil,

    Why do you think /CL and /RB are holding these levels after a bearish inventory report? Also with rate hike would expect stronger dollar and downward pressure on commodities.


  32.  

     Net Earnings Per Diluted Share of $.36, In-Line with Company Model

    - Net Sales Flat to Prior Year; Comparable Sales Declined Approximately 0.6%

    - Cash and Investments Balance Increased Approximately $532 Million

    - Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend of $.16 Per Share

    Fiscal 2018 Second Quarter Results

    For the fiscal 2018 second quarter, the Company reported net earnings of $.36 per diluted share ($48.6 million), compared with $.67 per diluted share ($94.2 million) for the fiscal 2017 second quarter.  Net sales for the fiscal 2018 second quarter were approximately $2.9 billion, flat to the prior year quarter.  Comparable sales in the fiscal 2018 second quarter decreased by approximately 0.6%, and included strong sales growth from the Company's customer-facing digital channels, and sales from stores that declined in the mid-single-digit percentage range.

    Based on its planning assumptions, the Company has slightly reduced its net sales model, with comparable sales to be relatively flat to last year, and net earnings per diluted share for the full year to be at the low end of its previously modeled range, at about $2.00.

    In connection with its three-year financial goals that comprise its vision for 2020, the Company remains on track to achieve moderating declines in operating profit and net earnings per diluted share in fiscal 2018 and fiscal 2019, and to achieve growth in net earnings per diluted share by fiscal 2020.

    Doesn't warrant a 12% sell-off.  They are projecting $2 per share so even 10x would be $20.  I like being in the market with people who don't understand math and basic finances – that's how we make lots of money! 

    /CL/Japar – All about Trump's threats with Iran, people are speculating on some event that disrupts Gulf supply.  

    EIA Petroleum Inventories

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude +1.9M barrels vs. -1.3M consensus, -2.1M last week.
    • Gasoline +1.5M barrels vs. +0.8M consensus, -1.7M last week.
    • Distillates -2.2M barrels vs. +0.8M consensus, +0.8M last week.
    • Futures -0.58% to $71.86.

    As to the rate hike – stock traders may be idiots but currency traders tend not to be – this move was priced in already but also priced in is the probability that other banks follow suit.  

    State Street Investor Confidence Index

    Gold volatile, but still lower post-rate hike

    • The FOMC earlier as expected hiked the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points. Also somewhat expected, the Committee removed "accommodative" from its policy statement and indicated a fourth 2018 rate hike is coming in December.
    • Speaking at the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Jay Powell cautions against reading anything dovish in the policy statement.
    • Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) initially swung higher, then lower, then higher again, and is now at about the same level it was at prior to the Fed news - down 0.4% at $1,200 per ounce.
    • ETFs: GLDIAUPHYSSGOLUGLDUGLDGPGLLGTUGLDIOUNZDZZDGLDGLDDGZGYENBARGEURGLDWGHSUBGQGLDXGHEAAAUGLDMIAUF
    • Previously: The Fed hikes funds rate by 25 bps, for the third time this year (Sept. 26)

    Fed's Powell says removing `accommodative' doesn't signal change in path

    • Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says removing the "accommodative" language "doesn't signal a change" in the path of monetary policy. Rather it's recognizing that the economy is proceeding in line with expectations.
    • "It's useful life was over," he says, regarding the removal of that language.
    • The gradual return to more "normal" interest rates is helping to sustain the economy, he said.
    • Powell says he doesn't yet see much effect from trade tensions, and that one needs to look at what the end result would be "If the end, if the place we get to is lower tariffs, that's good."
    • However, if it turns to more widespread tariffs and a more protectionist environment, that would be bad, he said.
    • If increased tariffs lead to higher prices, Powell says it's important to look at whether it's a "one-time price increase" vs. "fueling an increased rate of inflation."
    • During the press conference, Powell also emphasizes that the FOMC is focused on its mission, when asked about President Trump's comments that he's not a fan of boosting interest rates.
    • Previously: The Fed hikes funds rate by 25 bps, for the third time this year (Sept. 26)

    Teva continues selloff, down 5%

    • Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA -4.8%) is down on modestly higher volume. Shares have corrected ~12% since last week.
    • A contributing factor appears to be mid-stage data on TG Therapeutics' (TGTX -2.9%) ublituximab in relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS). The results, to be presented at ECTRIMS in Berlin next month, showed an annualized relapse rate of 0.07, significantly below the 0.331 rate for the 40 mg dose of Copaxone (glatiramer acetate injection) in Study 5 (package insert, page 17).
    • In addition, all T1 Gd-enhancing brain lesions were were eliminated at week 24 and maintained at week 48. In Study 4, the median cumulative number of T1 Gd-enhancing lesions after nine months of treatment with 20 mg of Copaxone was 11 (page 16).

    Late-quarter push at Tesla

    • Bloomberg describes a "frantic" push at Tesla (TSLA +1.9%) to boost sales and deliveries as Q3 winds down.
    • Tesla customers are responding to Elon Musk's calls to pitch in at local delivery centers and there are anecdotal accounts of new incentives being dangled in front of prospective buyers.
    • While discounting and incentives are standard fare in the automobile industry, the spotlight brighter burns brighter on Tesla amid the intense debate on organic Model 3 demand.
    • In morning trading, shares of Tesla are swapping hands at a price of over $305 for the first time since late August.

    Bloomberg: Airbus nears $18B jet order deal with China

    • Airbus (OTCPK:EADSFOTCPK:EADSY) has sent a high-powered delegation to China seeking to firm up a potential $18B jet order, a deal that would highlight how China continues to conduct business amid the trade war with the U.S., Bloomberg reports.
    • The possible order for ~180 A320 Neo narrow-body planes will be discussed during the trip this week that includes Airbus CEO Tom Enders and commercial aircraft president Guillaume Faury, according to the report.
    • China's Pres. Xi reportedly hopes to showcase the purchase at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai from Nov. 5 and at the Zhuhai air show in southern China which starts a day later.

    Ford says its lost $1B from tariffs damage

    • Ford (F -0.1%) says tariffs on metals lopped off $1B from the company's bottom line even though it sources most of its steel and aluminum from the U.S.
    • Other automakers have also lamented the headwinds that tariffs have created for them without pinning down a number.
    • The disproportionate economic harm from U.S. tariffs for the automobile industry has been a rallying cry for most of the year.
    • Related ETF: CARZ.

  33. PZZA - Papa John's Founder Wants to Buy the Company. It'll Cost Him — Barrons.com

    A pioneer in pizza delivery could be preparing a takeout order of his own. That could point to 20% upside for stock investors. 

    Papa John's (PZZA) founder John Schnatter, who stepped down as the company's chief executive late last year amid public pressure over controversial remarks, has been talking with private equity firms about partnering in a buyout, CNBC reported Wednesday. Schnatter owns 30% of Papa John's shares. 

    Papa John's stock rose about 8%, to just under $50 a share, in midday trading. 

    In a leveraged buyout targeting a low-teens rate of return on investment, Papa John's could go for $58 a share, according to an analysis by Jefferies analyst Alexander Slagle in August. Upon upgrading shares at the beginning of August, Slagle pointed to potential for a takeover at a price ranging from $52.50 to $63.50 a share. 
     

    https://www.etrade.wallst.com/v1/stocks/news/search_results.asp?docKey=1-DN20180926007724-3Q6QJ1BMDRCMOUK9NB7NMEMBF6&DMSourceID=Dow%20Jones&Source=Dow%20Jones&docDate=2018-09-26%2018:17:00&headline=%20Papa%20John%27s%20Founder%20Wants%20to%20Buy%20the%20Company.%20It%27ll%20Cost%20Him%20--%20Barrons.com&refSymbols=US;PZZA


  34. Good morning!

    Futures pretty flat but it's window-dressing time and we may not see real damage until next week, if any.

    It's a big data day and Powell speaks again at the close but GDP And Durable Goods will set the tone at 8:30:

    Thursday's economic calendar

     

    More US corporate giants warn tariffs will mean price hikes

    Trump Accuses China of Trying to Interfere in U.S. Elections.

    Trump Says Xi Might Not Be His Friend After Meddling Allegation.

    Oil Rebounds After Rick Perry Rules Out Tapping Strategic Crude.

    Fed Raises Interest Rates, Signals One More Increase This Year.

    Powell 'pulled a Goldilocks' and said policy is just right, Art Cashin says.

    "Un-Accommodative" Powell Pummels Stocks As Yield Curve Crumbles.

    House passes spending package to avoid government shutdown, but Trump still has to sign. 

    Trump on Rosenstein: 'My preference would be to keep him'.

    Argentina Gets Record $57 Billion As IMF Boosts Bailout, Creates "No Intervention" Zone For The Peso.

    Of course we're still shorting Oil (/CL) at $72.50 with tight stops above.

    /RB $2.075 is a good shorting line too.

    I like Gold (/YG) over the $1,200 line with tight stops below.

    Also Coffee (/KCN9) here, now $105.75

    Sugar is still interesting too: