26.5 C
New York
Monday, June 17, 2024

Top Trades for Wed, 14 Jan 2015 10:26

0
Top Trades for Wed, 14 Jan 2015 10:26
psw-placeholder

 

2008/Maya – No (or we would have dumped the LTP) because, in 2008, we had a housing bubble and we had an oil bubble and we had a banking bubble and all were based on false expectations of unsustainable prices.  This is 7 years later and, even at 3% annual growth (normal for the planet), we should be 23% higher than we were then. As I've often said, it's not like another 700M people weren't born.  Even at the global average per capita GDP of $8,000, that's still $5.6Tn more added to the Global economy since then.

So let's say the market was 40% overbought in 2008, now it would only be 20% overbought at the same levels.  The distribution among the specific sectors and stocks may change but, overall, the broad market is just a reflection of the Global economy which means it's EXTREMELY unlikely that we'll have more than a 20% correction and even that would take a proper negative event to get us that low.  

IRBT/Maya – This is a good spot for a long-term play.  Let's say you don't mind owning $15,000 worth (500 shares) so you start by selling 2 2017 $28 puts for $6 for a net $22 entry on 200 and you can leave it at that as the margin is just $600 to collect $1,200 or you can use that $1,200 to buy 4 of the $28/33 bull call spreads for $3 for net $0 on the $5 spreads that are $3 in the money ($2,000 upside potential).  Nothing wrong with that on our Stock of the Century. 

If it goes down from here, then you should be THRILLED to use the uncommitted $9,000 of buying power to roll the calls lower and maybe DD on the puts and then you'll be committed to 400 shares at a net below $20 on the put side.  If you aren't going to be THRILLED to own 400 shares of IRBT below $20 – why on Earth would you be buying 200 shares when they are over $30?  

That's how you should think about every stock purchase and, if you are doubling down, the same logic applies – if you aren't VERY WILLING to buy more of a stock if it gets even cheaper – STOP BUYING IT NOW! 

Retail/DC – Thanks for the update, as we expected, not all that bad.