According to Socionomics, financial destabilization and social unrest are manifestations of the decline in social mood. Social mood changes first and escalates to conflicts and violence. The DJIA is a guage of social mood, so when it goes down, social mood has already turned down and when it goes up, social mood as already started up.
While I am not convinced of the socionomic assertion that cycles in social mood are the source or "endogenous" cause of business cycles and cycles in crime, global conflict and violence, I do agree that social mood, economic distress, conflicts and violence are naturally highly correlated. The evidence is mounting that we will see a severe cyclical downturn where the dramatic interplay between social mood, a global financial crisis and global unrest plays out. – Ilene
p.s. I welcome comments by anyone who has an interest or some knowledge about Socionomics and Elliott Wave Theory
In my November 2008 Thoughts/Roadmap [Nov 14: November 2008 Thoughts/Roadmap] looking 6-12-18 months ahead I wrote:
#5 Europe – Eastern Europe might cause some major issues in 2009 – Hungary already has had some major issues but many smaller eastern European countries followed the US model – borrow borrow borrow, spend spend spend. But unlike the US which somehow people still find the "safest country in the world" (the only country in the world who originates a global crisis and people flock to their currency) the Eastern European countries do not have this advantage. We could see multiple shock waves in smaller Eastern European countries in the year ahead especially if credit remains this impaired.
And so it is developing… speaking of all things Baltic (non shipping in this case) Bloomberg: Baltic Protests Erupt as EU’s Worst Economies Shake
- The Baltic countries of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are facing unrest and street protests over government austerity measures that may make political leaders casualties of the worst economic collapse in the European Union.
- Protesters hurled stones and broke windows at the Parliament building during an anti-government demonstration in the capital of Vilnius today, leading to 11 arrests. It followed a larger riot on Jan. 13 in Riga, Latvia’s biggest city, in which 106 people were detained. Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius held an emergency Cabinet meeting as police pushed protesters back with rubber bullets and tear gas.
- Disruptions in the former communist nations just west of Russia contrast with 2006, when the economies of the three grew faster than any others in the 27-member EU. Now, leaders are facing calls to step down over painful spending and wage cuts, enacted more than a year after the International Monetary Fund warned that an economic meltdown was looming.
- “The frustration of people can have political ramifications for all the Baltic countries,” said Lars Christensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank AS, in a phone interview from Copenhagen. “Politicians are very restricted in what they can do now and that is very hard to explain to people.”
- About 7,000 people took part in today’s Vilnius demonstration, which was organized by the Lithuanian Trade Union Confederation to protest government tax reforms and public wage cuts. People marched along Vilnius’s main shopping and business boulevard chanting “Shame on You” and carrying signs “Stop Impoverishment and Unemployment” to the government building
- The frustration of citizens was felt the most in Latvia, which has had the biggest economic reversal. In 2006, gross domestic product expanded 12.2 percent, the highest rate in the EU. In the third quarter, GDP contracted 4.6 percent, the EU’s steepest dive. Zatlers, 53, said the next day that trust in the government and lawmakers had “catastrophically fallen.
- “I understand the hardships of people in the face of the economic downturn,” Semeta said. “These measures were necessary but may be socially painful individually. The essence of the system that’s been introduced as a medicine in this situation must remain.” (I believe "kick the can" policies would solve your problems; it solves ours. "Taking your medicine" is not something we advise you to ever do)
- The troubles may infect the economies of other former eastern-bloc nations and the Nordic states….“There is a risk that a financial crisis in Latvia could spread and create unease on the financial markets in Sweden and our neighboring countries,” Swedish central bank Governor Stefan Ingves said in a statement on Dec. 16.
- “The chances for the survival of the government are not great,” said Juhan Kiviraehk, a sociologist with the International Center for Defense Studies in Tallinn, the Estonian capital.
In a related note: In America… search term "Britney Spears", "Miley Cyrus", "Jessica Alba", "American Idol" and "World Wrestling Entertainment" continues to dominate Yahoo Search. The sheeple successfully distracted for another year – protests averted!
….and states continue to spend, no painful wage cuts or spending cuts here [Jan 14: USA Today – States Continue to Spend Despite Budget Shortfalls] – federal bailout money on the way to the states ($180 Billion at last count). The ability to print money from thin air (or borrow on grandchildren) is such a powerful tool; we’re so lucky to have it.