Taibbi in his first TV interview since the “Squid” was let loose. Hat tip Calgary Schmooze
Taibbi Goes On Air
by Zero Hedge - July 2nd, 2009 5:52 pm
Taibbi Goes On Air
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DiggFDIC TGI Failure F… er… T
by Zero Hedge - July 2nd, 2009 5:00 pm
FDIC TGI Failure F… er… T
Failure Friday is early today: today’s bank shooting green all the way to the grave is John Warner Bank, from Clinton, IL. Likely more to come today.
The FDIC and State Bank of Lincoln entered into a loss-share transaction on approximately $31 million of The John Warner Bank’s assets. State Bank of Lincoln will share in the losses on the asset pools covered under the loss-share agreement. The loss-sharing arrangement is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The agreement also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers.
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $10 million. State Bank of Lincoln’s acquisition of all the deposits was the “least costly” resolution for the FDIC’s DIF compared to alternatives. The John Warner Bank is the 46th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the seventh in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution to be closed in the state was Bank of Lincolnwood, Lincolnwood, on June 5, 2009.
ROSENBERG: DEFLATION ALL OVER EMPLOYMENT REPORT
by ilene - July 2nd, 2009 4:32 pm
ROSENBERG: DEFLATION ALL OVER EMPLOYMENT REPORT
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
David Rosenberg had some great thoughts on today’s deflationary empoyment report:
Today’s employment report had deflation thumbprints all over it. And you don’t have to take my word for it – have a read of San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen’s speech on June 30th when she dared to utter the “D” word. And that was before today’s payroll release which contained disturbing signs of weakness on many fronts.
For those that missed it: Yellen said the predominant risk was that inflation would remain low for an extended period of time and will be “be too low, not too high, over the next several years.”
The headline came in at -467k compared with -350k consensus and the back revisions were negligible (+8k). At no time in the 1990 or 2001 recessions did we ever come close to seeing such a detonating jobs figure, not even at the depths of those downturns, and yet we have a whole industry of ‘green shoot’ advocates today telling us that the recovery has already arrived. As always, the devil was in the details. In almost every industry, job losses were deeper in June than they were in May. The diffusion index fell to 28.6 from 31, which means that nearly three-quarters of the corporate sector is still in the process of shedding jobs. The Household Survey showed a 374k job decline, and all centered in full-time jobs. In fact, we have lost a record 9 million full-time jobs this cycle, more than triple what is normal in the context of a post-WWII recession, with over 2 million pushed onto part-time work (and the number of people now working part-time because they have no other choice due to the weak economy has more than doubled).
This in turn has taken the total hours worked in the private sector down to a new record low of 33 hours from 33.1 hours in May – in fact, what this means is that if companies had kept hours worked at May’s levels, then to achieve the same labour input that they achieved would have required a 800,000 job slice! Just to put the entire labour market picture into a certain perspective.
When we say that deflation has gripped the labour market, we are not exaggerating. Average weekly earnings – the proxy
…
Bullish Motorola Play In Options Action
by Option Review - July 2nd, 2009 4:22 pm
Today’s tickers: MOT, AXP, JOSB & ILMN
NYSE Extends Closing To 4:15 PM, Cites “System Irregularities”
by Zero Hedge - July 2nd, 2009 4:10 pm
NYSE Extends Closing To 4:15 PM, Cites “System Irregularities”
Tsk tsk. Those pesky SPARCs. Anyone remember March 2007? In other news, Sky Net will be nominating a robo-president for 2012 shortly.
The June Non-farm Payrolls Report
by ilene - July 2nd, 2009 3:25 pm
More on the employment numbers from the Cafe, with very colorful charts showing a very discouraging picture.
The June Non-farm Payrolls Report
Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
The headline jobs number came out worse than expected, and the paint peeled off the US stocks tape from its recent run into the end of the second quarter.
The trend herd had been looking at the bounce off the bottom and before today’s number had some hopes that the leveling off or even a surprise to the upside would confirm a bottom in the economy. The sharp downturn threw cold water on those happy thoughts. [click on charts for larger images]
The actuals came in about as expected, a little lower perhaps, and as you can see there was a strong downward seasonal adjustment.
The "Birth-Death" model was in line with the usual swag that the BLS performs at this time of year. As you know this number is added to the "actual jobs number" before seasonal adjustment, so at this time of year it helps to inflate the headline number slightly.
With this regular repetition of the number without regard to the underlying economic activity over the years, and its feed into the actuals, one has to wonder why they don’t just roll this number into their seasonal adjustments? Do they feel the need to justify their tinkering with actual number beyond some limit? The Birth-Death model is certainly no viable rationale, but it does serve to employ a few analysts, and is likely some pet project of a past BLS director.
And here is the only chart worth watching, the long term trend. There has been no bottom yet reached in the jobs lost. This is not so much a reflection on the stimulus because of the lag, and the obvious data showing that consumers tended to use the stimulus to pay down their immediate debt which is a worthwhile endeavor, but does not give a quick boost to jobs.
The issue might be a bit of a red herring, because the economic stimulus pales by comparison with the enormous amount of stimulus provided to the banking sector, which is stimulating some operators like Goldman Sachs to pay their employees, on average, a record $700,000 in annual pay. Now THAT is stimulus, but perhaps one that is
…
Slow Afternoon News Roundup
by Zero Hedge - July 2nd, 2009 2:14 pm
Slow Afternoon News Roundup
- Dan Loeb’s Third Point June P&L: 1.8%; 7.2% YTD (Third Point)
- Captain Morgan – Best use of $2.7 billion in TARP funding. Ever (Moneynews, h/t Cris)
- BOE’s Miles says helpful to include housing in inflation gauge [Amen]
- Boeing lost orders for 15 787 Dreamliners in past week: those lost airplanes sure not helping the manufacturing index
- China Vice Premier says global financial crisis hasn’t bottomed
- Russia Central bank says scraps recommendation for banks not to increase foreign currency denominated assets from Q3
- Weather Derivatives latest forecast sees average temperatures in the US for the next 6-10 days to be 0.2F vs. Prev. -1.3F
- US to provide $1.175 bln to wind down GM, previously the number was $950 million
- FDIC board weighs rules for buyout firms acquiring failed banks
- Gazprom seeks global deal to build gas grid encircling Europe (Bloomberg) – Naming contest is on: most PC incorrect name wins of course
- Michael Lewis on Wall Street’s Day of Reckoning (WS Tech h/t Joe)
- William Cohan on Goldman Sachs and AIG (Tech Ticker)
China Requests Debate on Reserve Currency at G14 Summit
by ilene - July 2nd, 2009 2:11 pm
China Requests Debate on Reserve Currency at G14 Summit
Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
China is proposing a new reserve currency regime less dependent on the dollar, along with other BRIC countries, and the US and its financial allies in the status quo will resist change because it is in their short term interest to do so.
China can take ‘pre-emptive’ action by diversifying its holdings ahead of any change, and there are some indications that it is doing so already. But while the dollar is the prime medium of international trade, China must buy dollars to support its mercantilist industrial policy. Its own alternative is to boost its domestic consumption and ‘grow a middle class’ which in some minds erodes the power of the narrow political elite which rules the country.
The US needs to stand firm in some areas, and acquiesce in others. Standing firm with regard to the yuan being free of a peg and currency controls is one area that ought to have been sine qua non when first Clinton and then Bush gave China its openings as a preferred trading partner even while maintaining de facto industrial subsidies through its currency and markets.
The first line of negotiation will be to agree on a dollar substitute, which will probably be the SDR. The US will resist and delay this as long as is possible.
The fallback position then will be the composition of the SDR, and a long phasing of the change in the primacy of the dollar and a few G7 currencies. China will seek more diversity and the inclusion of gold and silver, which is anathema to the Wall Street banking cartel.
The US must change or face more seismic, involuntary dislocations. As Britain surrendered its far flung colonial Empire, so the US must downsize its financial sector, restore balance to its own economy and its place in the world economy, and relinquish the primary reserve currency status which has become a powerful instrument of manipulation by the Wall Street banking cartel.
The dollar is the last, the mother of bubbles. Few understand this even now.
The epic US credit expansion was enabled by the preferred position of US debt instruments as the reserve currency of the world. The bond and the dollar are the absolute foundation of that debt pyramid.
Those days are undeniably over.
…
Jobs Contract 18th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Hits 9.5%
by ilene - July 2nd, 2009 1:39 pm
Here’s a comprehensive review and analysis of the unemployment situation by Mish.
Jobs Contract 18th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Hits 9.5%
Courtesy of Mish
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June Employment Report.
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job losses were widespread across the major industry sectors, with large declines occurring in manufacturing, professional and business services, and construction..
Establishment Data
click on chart for sharper image
Highlights
- 467,000 jobs were lost in total vs. 345,000 jobs last month.
- 79,000 construction jobs were lost vs. 59,000 last month.
- 136,000 manufacturing jobs were lost vs. 156,000 last month.
- 244,000 service providing jobs were lost vs. 120,000 last month.
- 21,000 retail trade jobs were lost vs. 18,000 last month.
- 118,000 professional and business services jobs were lost vs. 51,000 last month.
- 34,000 education and health services jobs were added vs. 44,000 added last month.
- 18,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were gained vs. 3,000 added last month.
- 52,000 government jobs were lost vs. 7,000 last month.
A total of 223,000 goods producing jobs were lost (higher paying jobs), and in contrast to last month, the service sector was hit hard again. Indeed most of the improvement in May was a 149,000 relative improvement in the service sector as compared to April.
It was nearly a clean sweep again this month with education and health services jobs the only real winner for the month.
Note: some of the above categories overlap as shown in the preceding chart, so do not attempt to total them up.
Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours
Work hours are now down to 33.0 in aggregate. This is contributing to household problems. The expectation was for work hours to rise.
Birth Death Model Revisions 2008
click on chart for sharper image
Birth Death Model Revisions 2009
click on chart for sharper image
Birth/Death Model Revisions
After the typical in January in which the Birth/Death Model revisions bore some semblance of reality, the Birth/Death numbers remain in deep outer space.
At this point in the cycle birth death numbers should have been massively contracting for months. The BLS is going to keep
…
Aircraft repair jobs sold to foreign workers
by ilene - July 2nd, 2009 1:03 pm
Something to think about before boarding the airplane on the way to your next big adventure.
Aircraft repair jobs sold to foreign workers, resumes not important
Courtesy of Mish
Here’s something to think about when the unemployment numbers come out Thursday Morning: Aircraft repair jobs sold to foreign workers, resumes not important.
A News 8 investigation found that hundreds of aircraft mechanics have been brought into the United States to work at aircraft repair facilities.
Insiders say the companies that are importing the mechanics are so eager to save money, they’re overstating their qualifications. The result may be a threat to safety, abetted by lax enforcement of immigration law.
At daybreak any morning at San Antonio Aerospace, hundreds of workers amble through the gates for the day shift. They repair big jets like Airbuses, Boeing 757s and MD-11s.
Jada Williams used to work for one of the contracting companies, Aircraft Workers Worldwide (AWW), based in Daphne, Alabama. AWW supplied workers for two facilities, Mobile Aerospace Engineering (MAE) in Mobile, Alabama and San Antonio Aerospace, which are both controlled by ST Aerospace. San Antonio Aerospace is a division of ST Aerospace, the largest aircraft repair company in world.
"They’ve employed over 200 since I left,” said Williams, who said she was unfairly fired by the contractor last fall. "And I know we had over a hundred when I was in there, just in Mobile.”
San Antonio Aerospace uses several contracting companies to supply it with workers. It can be a high-profit business for the contractors. They can make $3 to $12 an hour for every worker hired by SAA, contractors say.
The drive for profits is so big, Williams and other insiders said, that the contractors often falsify the qualifications of the imports.
"We had two,” she said. “One of them was a female. She was about 16. It was a brother and a sister. One guy was a grocery bagger, one was a security guard in Puerto Rico. Their ages were between 18 and 22.”
Their ages are important because it takes years of experience or schooling to learn how to repair a big jet, experience they couldn’t have had.
One former SAA mechanic, who spent years learning his trade before being laid off, said foreign workers got their training on the job from the Americans they worked with.
"The more experienced mechanics, we
…
Zero Hedge
The Cost Of The Combined Greek Bailout Just Rose To €320 Billion In Secured Debt, Or 136% Of Greek GDP
February 11th, 2012 11:02 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Some of our German readers may be laboring under the impression that following the €110 billion first Greek bailout agreed upon and executed in May 2010, the second Greek bailout would cost a "mere" €130 billion. Alas we have new for you - as of this morning, the formal cost of rescuing Greece for the adjusted adjusted adjusted second time has just risen to €145 billion, €175 billion, a whopping €210 billion, bringing the total explicit cost of all Greek bailout funds to date (and many more in sto...
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Chart School
Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Weekend Update
February 11th, 2012 10:35 am
Courtesy of Doug Short.
The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com that can be used to forecast conservative entry and exit points for the stock market.
The OEXA is used to find the "sweet spot" time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. See Is This the Best Stock Market Indicator Ever? for a discussion of this technical tool.
The chart below is current through the February 3rd close.
After a major S&P correction, the conditions for safe re-entry into the market are when:
a) $OEXA200R rises above 65%. And two of the following three...more from Chart School
Phil's Favorites
Violent Protests in Greece; 6 Cabinet Members Resign
February 11th, 2012 3:28 am
Violent Protests in Greece; 6 Cabinet Members Resign; LAOS leader "I Would Rather Starve Than be Under German Jackboot"; Controversy Over Missing ParagraphsCourtesy of Mish
Imagine you are asked to sign a document but three pages were missing. Further imagine the documents you were asked to sign were written in English but you only speak Greek. Would you sign?
That is exactly the predicament Greek officials were placed in by the Troika. Here is the story sent to me by Demetri Kofinas at Capital Account.
George Karatzaferis leader of LOAS political party gave a speech today addressing why he refused to sign this latest agreement. In his speech, he said that he a...
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Sabrient
Sabrient Risers - 2/11/2012
February 11th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....more from Sabrient
Insider Scoop
Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Friday February 10, 2012
February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider
Market Montage
And Still Not a Single 1% Down Day in 2012
February 10th, 2012 4:14 pm
Submitted by Mark HannaCourtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
A little flurry of buying in the closing 5 minutes tacked on 2 S&P points and took the major indexes off the lows. Only the Russell 2000 finished with a greater than 1% loss (1.4%) as it has been relatively weak versus the senior indexes for the past few sessions. While today was the "worst day of the year" – it was quite a low bar as the previous biggest loss on the S&P 500 was -0.57%.
The S&P 500 held well above the 10 day moving average (didn't even really touch it) and did not even attempt to fill the gap from last Friday's employment report. The teflon market rolls on for now. Specul...
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ETF Selector
ETFs Skid On Greece (VGK, EWG, FXE, DIA, SPY)
February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fearsAfter wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
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All About Trends
Mid-Day Update
February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Click here for the full report.
To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...
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Option Review
True Religion Falls Apart At The Seams After Earnings
February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
...
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OpTrader
Swing trading portfolio - week of February 6th, 2012
February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Optrader
...more from OpTrader
Stock World Weekly
Stock World Weekly: The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics
February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
...more from SWW
IRA Strategy/Income Trader
Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/30/2012
January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position. AA Money No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position. Last week P&L - 310.00 We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium! FAS Money Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though! Last week P&L - $4277.00 IWM Money A decent week in this virtual portfo...more from Strategies
Pharmboy
Biotech Investing for 2012
January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither Philstockworld, LLC (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
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