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Archive for 2009

Days of the Roundtable

Time for a Roundtable discussion.  Yes, round, do not argue

Days of the Roundtable

Courtesy of Michael Panzner, at Financial Armageddon

I rely on a variety of resources, including newsletters, blogs, and the mainstream media, to try and figure out what the future holds.

One publication that has always been helpful in this regard is Barron’s, the investment weekly, which I’ve been reading for several decades. Among the features I enjoy are Alan Abelson’s Up and Down Wall Street column and the Q&As with experts who, in many cases at least, seem to have been selected because they actually know what they are talking about (unlike many of those who are regularly quoted or profiled elsewhere).

What I especially look forward to, however, are the "Roundtable" issues, which feature articles drawn from moderated discussions between a select group of old hands, many of whom I respect a great deal.

Luckily enough (for those who don’t subscribe, at least), the financial weekly seems to be running a promotion whereby some of the material from the January 10th issue, which includes the first installment of the Annual Roundtable discussion, is available for free to nonsubscribers (though I’m not sure how long that will last).

Anyway, here is an excerpt from the article, entitled "Hang on Tight!" which includes a welcome sampling of the always straight-shooting and thought-provoking insights of Marc Faber and Fred Hickey.

Our go-to group of investment experts sees tough times for the economy — but good fortune for stockpickers.
 
ONCE UPON A TIME, WE LIVED IN A WORLD where asset-price inflation begat leverage, which begat more asset inflation, in a virtuous circle known as the great bull market. We bought bad art, good wine and vacation homes (many), and stocks "on the dips," which made us rich. And geniuses, of course.

Then the big, bad wolves — greed and excess — came and popped our bubble, and the markets’, and all the pretty assets fell to earth. The fairy god-mother — bearing a strange name for a godmother, Uncle Sam — tried to clean up the mess with great gobs of money, but little success. The


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It’s Schadenfreude Saturday!

Sunday too!  For anyone not familiar with the word "Schadenfreude," it is a loanword from Germany and means "pleasure taken from observing the misery of another."

It’s Schadenfreude Saturday!

Courtesy of Greg Newton, at NakedShorts.

Rubin_Merkin_Gross

Capping the payoff

Having earned been paid $115 million since 1999 for taking lunch and, on a busy day, pontificating, former Treasury secretary Bob Rubin capped his payoff for helping debauche Glass-Steagall, without which intervention Citi might still be a functional financial institution rather than a ward of state. 

Not forgetting, of course:
 
Inside and outside the bank, Mr. Rubin is blamed by some for pushing Citigroup to rev up risk-taking as the housing and derivatives bubbles expanded — a move that has saddled Citigroup with tens of billions of dollars in write-downs and necessitated a sweeping government bailout of the financial giant…Citigroup’s share price is down 70% since he came on board.
 
In the next turn of the revolving door, NakedShorts has the over/under on Hank Paulson joining the board of JP Morgan Chase (or similar) at Sep. 2009. And is taking the under. (Related links after the jump).

Bailing on another Ponzi

The eponymous J. Ezra Merkin resigned as chairman of GMAC LLC, slipping over the gunwales of the Cerberus-GM joint venture under cover of a “board restructuring” triggered by a TARP-funded bailout that, but for the fact that TARP has no rules other than whatever Hank & Neel say they are, seemed to have broken every rule in the book.
 
Mr Merkin stands at an intersection of two of the largest current business stories — the federal bailout of the auto companies and the Madoff financial scandal.
 
In addition to being chairman of GMAC, Mr Merkin is a hedge fund operator who invested more than $1.8 billion of his clients’ money with Mr Madoff. Mr. Merkin’s three private investment funds — Ascot, Ariel and Gabriel — are among the largest of the so-called feeder funds that placed investors’ money with Mr Madoff without their knowledge, according to the investors. Mr Merkin collected millions of dollars in management fees annually for his work.
 
Among all the allegedly professional money managers hit by the Madoff fraud, Merkin has been


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My Elliott Analysis

Here’s another EW analysis, making it clear that EWers in general believe that the market is approaching a turn from a corrective move up (wave 4) to a final move down (wave 5) to complete an Elliott Wave cycle. Differences between analyses are in the details of current wave 4, with the consensus being that wave 4′s end will result in another significant leg down in the markets.

My Elliott Analysis

Courtesy of Allan

Three updated charts of the S&P 500 index as of Friday’s close. In descending order, the Weekly, the Daily and a 60 minute chart.
 
Weekly
 


The chart above is our main compass, a Weekly S&P 500 chart that is in the midst of a five wave sequence down from the 2007 highs. There are three clearly designated completed waves and by implication, a Wave 4 that has been sliding and slinking its way sideways to up against the major downtrend. A previously drawn wedge is placed earmarking this 4th Wave with the hope of isolating either an extended Wave 4 by a break upwards out of the wedge, or a completed Wave 4 by a breakdown below the wedge. As is obvious, neither an up or down breakout has yet occurred. By zeroing in on a couple shorter time frames, maybe we can glean some clues as to which way prices are headed.
 

Daily
 

Above is a Daily chart with a broader view of the 4th Wave. I’ve drawn in a channel that encompasses all price action since the November 21, 2008 low. Superimposed on that price action is a simple ABC sequence culminating with a Wave 4 top as of the close on Tuesday, January 6, 2009. What isn’t clear on this chart is whether or not Friday’s decline broke the bottom of that upward rising channel. For some clarity, let’s look at the 60 minute chart below.

Sixty minute
 


Whoa, Nellie (not an orthodox Elliott observation), this chart shows a break of that lower trend line clear as a bell.

The phrase means simply "very clear." A bell is used as a model of clarity because the sound of a bell


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Citigroup Pieces For Sale

Mish follows up the NY Times article saying goodbye to Robert E. Rubin at Citigroup and forecasting a piecemeal distribution of assets. 

Citigroup Pieces For Sale, Starting With Smith Barney

Citigroup is likely to be broken up. The New York Times highlights the story in Rubin Leaving Citigroup; Smith Barney for Sale.

Citigroup signaled a breakup of its unwieldy financial supermarket model with a possible deal to sell a share of its prized retail brokerage business to Morgan Stanley, said several people with knowledge of the discussions, underscoring the enormous problems the bank continues to confront even after receiving taxpayer bailout funds.

The new chapter of wrenching change came as former Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin, who came under fire for his strong support of that model in an advisory role that helped fuel the bank’s troubles, said he would resign.

The developments highlight how badly Citigroup has been damaged by the global financial crisis. Deepening losses, declining confidence in its leadership and a desperate need to raise capital have forced the bank to rethink the strategy it has clung to for years.

“This is either a one-off or the first inkling of a dismantlement of the company, taking apart of what John Reed and Sandy Weill did,” a senior executive with ties to the company said, referring to the two leaders who forged the landmark deal to bind Citicorp and Travelers Group in 1998.

With pressure mounting on Vikram S. Pandit, Citigroup’s chief executive, the company’s executives say the decision to split off Smith Barney, the “crown jewel” brokerage business he said he loved a few months ago, suggests the bank’s troubles are so deep that he is looking to reshape the company in a former image of itself.

While a deal is not yet final, such a change would position Citigroup to look more like Citicorp — a global franchise with strengths in trading, corporate and investment banking, and international consumer banking — than the bloated and unwieldy company it has become.

It also could lead to yet another shift in power on Wall Street. A joint venture with Morgan Stanley would create the nation’s largest brokerage network of 20,000 advisers, edging out Merrill Lynch’s thundering herd of brokers that Bank of America snapped up in September. Citigroup and


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Please Resume Your Chit-Chat

So fraud and deception is rampant in the securities industry, and the best solution is an overbroad, ambiguous ban on free speech?   

Life of Illusion – Joe Walsh

BuySide: Please Resume Your Chit-Chat

StockJockey's avatarCourtesy StockJockeyChris Cox

Securities regulators have done a lot of stupid things over the past year, but the SEC’s temporary ban on short selling financial stocks was probably the biggest. SEC chairman Chris Cox called it the biggest mistake of his tenure and the unintended consequences to Hedgistan, combined with the downfall of Lehman Brothers, unleashed a 1-2 punch that decimated the gang that probably deserved a medal, as opposed to the enema they received.

My take is that Hank Paulson (after being goaded by brokerage CEOs) strong-armed Cox into the move; intimidation seems to be a big part of Paulson’s management style. Bernanke does not seems to stand up to him either and will finally crawl out from under his desk as Paulson leaves town in two weeks.

But one of the more asinine proposals regulators have been floating is to restrict communication between money managers. Dan Loeb of Third Point LLC is never one to back down from a scrap, and penned a response to regulators who were seeking to blame shorts for talking amongst themselves and driving down the stocks of brokers:

Such conversations permit us to test our hypotheses and refine our thinking and, as a result, we believe that participating in give-and-take with other managers is in the best interest of our investors. Our outside counsel has examined this matter thoroughly and assured us that our position is consistent with the securities laws and that we have not violated any law in connection with these communications.

Now an industry group is rallying behind Loeb and the BuySide. Great news, but what took so long?

Hedge Fund Industry Opposes FINRA Rule on Circulation of Rumors  -  by Jim, at Jim Hamilton’s World of Securities Regulation

The hedge fund industry is concerned that a proposed FINRA rule designed to prevent the intentional circulation of rumors for the purpose of manipulating the market will interfere with the beneficial free flow of investment ideas. In a letter to FINRA, the Managed Funds Association said that proposed Rule 2030 would impair the ability of money managers to receive and investigate the validity of market information and have a negative impact on the overall efficiency of the marketplace. The MFA urged FINRA…
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THE WEEK THAT WAS 1/5-9/2009

ROBIN HIT THE BULLSEYE AGAIN THIS WEEK!!  THE FOLLOWING IS THE NARRATIVE FROM LAST SATURDAY’S 1/3/2009 BLOG WHEN ANALYZING THE DOW AFTER IT HAD CLOSED THE WEEK AT 9035:
“My bet is that the index may flirt with higher levels but very briefly and then will retrace to test 8348.”
THE DOW CLOSED AT 8599 ON FRIDAY [...]





CHARTS WEEK ENDING 1/9/2009

-The INDU closed Friday right on its’ lower trendline.  The bearish move of this past week could begin to falter at this level, however, the index is more likely to continue its’ retracement to retest recent lows at 8348.  We are moving in a 700 point range between 8348-9065.  From a longer-term perspective, we have been making a [...]





RICK GRAPHS: THE NAKED SHORT CALL

TOOLS OF THE TRADE
THE NAKED SHORT CALL
 

In the beginning of our series on Risk Graphs, we talked about each of the individual trading instruments.  Among those discussed was the short call.  The short call is a marvelous tool when used in tandem with other instruments.  However when used alone, it is known as a ‘Naked [...]





THE WEEK THAT IS TO BE 1/12-16/2009

ECONOMIC REPORTS
MONDAY 1/12
None
TUESDAY 1/13
Treasury Budget
WEDNESDAY 1/14
Export Prices-ex ag, Import Prices ex-oil, Retail Sales, Retail Sales- ex auto, Business Inventories, Crude Inventories
THURSDAY 1/15
Core PPI, Initial Claims, PPI, Philadelphia Fed
FRIDAY 1/16
Core CPI, CPI, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Michigan Sentiment-Prel
 
 
EARNINGS OF NOTE
MONDAY 1/12
AA
TUESDAY 1/13
INFY
WEDNESDAY 1/14
NONE
THURSDAY 1/15
BGG, DNA, INTC, ZZ
FRIDAY 1/16
JCI
 

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COMMENTARY

Any way that you measure it, we’re in for some rough sledding ahead.  We are about to see the result of a disastrous 4th quarter 2008 in the upcoming earnings season.  Already, we’ve gotten some ‘Same Store Sales’ figures on several retailers and they weren’t pretty.  Jobs numbers indicate further job losses.  We ended the [...]





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Legal Tender Renders Planning Impossible

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Gold Standard Institute.

by Keith Weiner

 

There is much confusion over what the legal tender law does. I have read articles, written by people who are otherwise knowledgeable about economics, claiming that legal tender forces merchants to accept dollars under threat of imprisonment. Recently, I wrote a short article for Forbes clarifying how legal tender law works in the US.

Legal tender law has nothing to do with merchants. If you want to sell steak dinners in your restaurant for silver, you may legally have at it. Unfortunately, the tax code discourages your would-be customers as I wrote in ...



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Phil's Favorites

EU "Red Tape Hell"; Dust Settles on Appointment of Juncker; Time for an Up-Down Vote

Courtesy of Mish.

Jean Claude Juncker (Mr. "Lie When It's Serious") is already accused of sending the UK down the drain.

Please consider British firms fear red tape hell as EU orders equality and green energy reports.
British companies will be forced to publish details of their environmental impact and efforts to improve “gender equality” under a diktat from Brussels.

Bureaucrats want all large firms in the European Union to include details of their policies on “environment, diversity and human rights” in their annual financial statements, it emerged last night.

The “corporate g...



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Insider Scoop

ArcelorMittal Completes Sale of ATIC Stake to HES Beheer - Analyst Blog

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Steel giant ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) has completed the divestment of its 78% stake in European port handling and logistics company ATIC Services S.A. (ATIC) to HES Beheer for €155.4 million (roughly $213 million).

With this transaction, HES Beheer now owns 100% stake in ATIC where it previously held 22% stake. The transaction reflects ArcelorMittal`s strategy of selective deposal of non-core assets.

ArcelorMittal posted a net loss of $0.2 billion or 12 cents per share in first-quarter 2014, narrower than a net loss of $0.3 billion or 21 cents a year ago.

Revenues inched up 0.2% year over year to $19.8 billion in the reported quarter. Sales were almost unchanged from the prior quarter as improved steel shipments were partly offset by lower...



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Chart School

Bulls Take Notice - Caution Suggested as Credit Markets and Equity Markets Diverge

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Summary
  • Divergence with small cap stocks and junk bonds persists.
  • Credit spreads widening suggests building short-term financial stress.
  • Markets oversold and how risk areas react will be telling.

One of the most widely followed market theories is Dow Theory, which has been around for more than 100 years. The essence of Dow Theory is to focus on confirmations or non-confirmations between the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average for assessing market trends and reversals. If one of the indexes breaks out to a new high while the other does not, we have a non-confirmation and the potential for a market reversal.

Similar to Dow Theory I like to look for confirmation between the stock market and the credit markets. When one market does not confirm the other, caution is ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

Sizable Call Spread Trades On Orexigen

A large call spread initiated on Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Ticker: OREX) on Monday morning looks for shares in the name to rally approximately 30% by September expiration. The September expiration is noteworthy as the company awaits the results of the FDA’s review of its resubmitted New Drug Application (NDA) for NB32, an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss, after the review was extended for three months back in June. The upcoming Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is September 11, 2014, according to a press release issued by the company. Shares in Orexigen today are up roughly 0.40% at $5.34 as of 2:15 p.m. ET.

...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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