Author Archive for Robin Hood Trader

Inflation Nation

Click here to sign up for a free subscription to the PSW Report.  It’s easy!  – Ilene

Courtesy of Robin Hood Trader

Inflation Nation 

What is the effect of stimulating inflation?  Click on the video above to find out!

 





Market Outlook May 11

Courtesy of Robin Hood Trader

Market Outlook May 11

Wondering which way the market is headed?  We nailed the market direction yet again last week so make sure to view the video below to find out this week’s market forecast.  And if you would like to chat with us simply click here.

 





THE WEEK THAT WAS: 4/13-17/2009

Updates on the week that was and the week that is to be, courtesy of Robin Hood Trader. – Ilene

THE WEEK THAT WAS: 4/13-17/2009

April 18th, 2009

ROBIN HAS BEEN ABSOLUTELY SPOT ON IN HIS MARKET CALLS!! “ANY CALLS BEYOND A FEW DAYS TO A WEEK ARE PURELY SPECULATION, HOWEVER, I HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACCUATELY CALL THE SHORT TERM MARKET WITH A COMBINATION OF COMMON TECHNICAL INDICATORS USED IN AN UNCOMMON WAY.” SO HOW DID ROBIN DO LAST WEEK!?

COMMENTS FROM LAST WEEK’S BLOG POSTED ON 4/11/2009:
 
DOW: “THE DOW WILL CONTINUE HIGHER TO TEST THE DOUBLE TOP FROM JANUARY/FEBRUARY. THE FIRST TEST WILL BE AT 8315 AND THEN 8405. IF IT BREAKS THOSE LEVELS, IT WILL MOVE HIGHER TO CHALLENGE THE SWING HIGH AT 9088 FROM THE FIRST OF THE YEAR.”  
 
What happened!? We went higher as forecast, reaching a high of 8190 on Friday 4/17, closing at 8131.
 
SPX: “THE SPX IS GOING HIGHER TO TEST THE DOUBLE TOP AT 877 FROM LATE JANUARY AND MID FEBRUARY. FROM THERE, THE NEXT STOP IS THE DOUBLE TOP AT 918 FROM DECEMBER ’08. I BELIEVE IT WILL EVENTUALLY HIT THE SWING HIGH AT 944 FROM EARLY JANUARY.”
 
What happened!? Up we went to test the high at 876 on Friday 4/17 and settled at 870.
 
COMPQ: “THE COMPQ SHOULD TEST 1666 THIS WEEK. IF IT BREACHES THAT LEVEL, WE HAVE A STRAIGHT SHOT TO THE SWING HIGH OF 1786 FROM 11/4/08.”
 
What did it do!? The COMPQ reached a high of 1682 on 4/17 and closed at 1673.
 
Monday formed a hanging man candle, which is bearish. Profit taking was evident in the morning hours, but the indexes rebounded late to pare losses as the DOW finished down 25 points. 
As expected, Tuesday was bearish on economic news and some less than upbeat comments on the economy by President Obama. The DOW closed down 138 points.
Wednesday morning, the trading was bearish based on poor manufacturing data. However, better than expected earnings pushed the market higher in the afternoon to close up 109 points on the DOW.
Thursday saw a continuation of Wednesday’s triple digit gain as the markets battled off negative jobless claims numbers and declining housing starts to close 96 points higher in the DOW.


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THE WEEK THAT WAS: 4/6-9/2009

Courtesy of Robin Hood Trader 

THE WEEK THAT WAS: 4/6-9/2009

OTHERS HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR A RETRACEMENT TO RE-TEST THE LOW FROM MARCH 6TH, HOWEVER, ROBIN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY AND ACCURATELY PREDICTING THE MARKET AND HE CALLED FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE RECENT BULL RUN.  ”I GOT THE DIRECTION RIGHT LAST WEEK BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOVE WAS NOT QUITE THERE.  I KNEW THAT FOR THE MOST PART, THERE WOULD BE LOW VOLUME DUE TO THE SHORTENED TRADING WEEK AND AS SUCH IT WOULD BE MORE DIFFICULT TO MAKE THE ENTIRE MOVE UP TO RESISTANCE LEVELS. WITH EARNINGS SEASON KICKING INTO GEAR NEXT WEEK AND EVERYONE BACK FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WE SHOULD RESUME OUR MOVE HIGHER.” 
 
Last week’s comments published on 4/4/2009:
DOW: “I feel we are still going up with my first target at 8315 and then 8405”
SPX: “We will continue to rise to challenge 875”
COMPQ: “The COMPQ is going up to challenge 1666.”
Monday, Mike Mayo an analyst with Calyon Securities downgraded the financials with his “Seven Deadly Sins of Banking” and the DOW closed down 42 points.
Tuesday kicked off earning season with the likes of AA and MOS. GM is looking to file bankruptcy and AIG was shopping their asset management business as the DOW continued yesterdays’ decline by falling another 186 points.
Wednesday, the Treasury opted to extend bailout money to the Life Insurance Industry. Pulte Homes announced plans to acquire Centex and the FOMC minutes predicted slower growth for the next 1 ½ years. The DOW sorted through this information and closed higher by 48 points.
The trading week finished early due to Easter with Thursday’s action posting big gains as WFC blew the doors off their earnings. The DOW registered a 246 point gain.
Last Friday’s close to Thursday’s close this week posted gains on the major indexes with the DOW up 65, the SPX better by 14 and the COMPQ  gaining 31.

CHARTS WEEK ENDING 4/9/2009

 4-11-2009-10-37-51-amindu

-The DOW will continue higher to test the double top from January/February.  The first test will be at 8315 and then 8405.  If it breaks those levels, it will move higher to challenge the swing high at 9088 from the first of the year.

4-11-2009-11-09-04-amspx

-The SPX is going higher to test the double top


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CONSIDER THE LONGER VIEW

Courtesy of Robin Hood Trader

COMMENTARY: CONSIDER THE LONGER VIEW OF THE MARKET

4-10-2009-3-51-03-pm20yrchart2 
 
Sometimes as traders, we get caught up in a ‘Micro View’ of the market and neglect the longer picture. It can be detrimental to your financial health to take such a stance. The debate rages on as to whether or not we have put in a bottom in the market. As a chartist, it looks like in the short term view we may need to come back down and retest the recent lows of March 6. The RUB is that many traders fail to consider the larger picture when doing their analysis. We all agree that chart patterns such as double tops and bottoms can be critical areas of support and resistance. When analyzing charts with 6 month to 2 year times frames, the chartist would surmise that another leg down is required to put in a double bottom. While that may in fact be the case, it is not necessarily needed.
 
When considering the 20 year chart of the SPX, you will see my point. It is many times beneficial to do a top down analysis and start with a ‘Macro View’ of the markets and then narrow the analysis from that point. As you can see, from the perspective of the 20 year chart, (one could actually see this in a 10year chart, but I have included the longer time frame in order to put the trend in context of the overall market) you can see that we have in fact already tested the bottom from 2002-2003.
 
Please keep in mind that it does not preclude the market from moving down and retesting the recent bottom from March 6th. However, from a technical analysis perspective, it is not required that it do so.
 
Best, Robin

 





THE WEEK THAT WAS: 3/30-4/3/2009

Here’s Robin Hood Trader‘s review for the last week and thoughts on this coming up week.

THE WEEK THAT WAS: 3/30-4/3/2009

Courtesy of Robin Hood Trader

How did we do this past week? We had a brief consolidation as predicted and moved higher as forecast. However, we did not get as high as anticipated.
 
Comments from last weeks’ blog posted on 3/28/2009:
 
The SPX:   “I feel that 804 will hold and the SPX will move higher after a brief consolidation and challenge 875.”
 
The DOW: “My feel is that we are still going higher after a brief respite at current levels.”
 
The COMPQ: “I feel we will briefly rest at current levels and then go higher to challenge 1598 and then 1666.”
 
Monday, the Obama administration rejected business plans for GM and Chrysler as GM’s CEO Rick Wagoner resigned at the request of Washington. The DOW turned down 254 points.
 
Tuesday, the last day of the quarter, ended on an uptick as the DOW finished higher by 87 points primarily due to “Window Dressing” by fund managers.
 
Wednesday began with dismal employment data as the ADP numbers were worse by 742,000. The ISM report pushed stocks higher as Q2 began on the positive side of the ledger with the DOW gaining 153 points.
 
Thursday revealed better than expected factory goods orders and positive news from the G20 conference in London as the DOW jumped 216 points.
 
The week ended on a strong note as the market refused to close in the red even after abysmal Non-Farm Payroll numbers. RIMM bested street estimates and shot higher as the DOW finished 39 points to the good. 
 
Week over week, the DOW was up 241, the SPX gained 27 and the COMPQ was positive by 77.
Learn the secrets of consistently profitable traders. Click here!!!
 
 
 

April 4th, 2009

4-4-2009-10-35-56-amindu
 
-The DOW formed a classic “J Hook” pattern and it looks like it wants to move higher.  Friday’s action formed a “Hanging Man” on lower volume.  Under normal circumstances, I would speculate that the index wants to go lower based upon that candle and coupled with the decreased volume, however I don’t think that is the case.  We have a shortened trading


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THE WEEK THAT WAS: 3/23-27/2009

Market Update, courtesy of Robin Hood Trader 

THE WEEK THAT WAS: 3/23-27/2009

We didn’t get the bounce off of lower levels before going up; we just continued to push higher this past week. The following are comments from last weeks’ blog published on 3/21/2009.
 
Comments from last week on the DOW: “Look for a retest and a bounce to retest resistance at 7449-7551. If the index breaks through that area, the next stop is 7800.”   
 
So what happened?  We ended the week on the DOW at 7776!
 
Comments from last week on the SPX. “Look for a successful retest of 741 and a bounce higher to re-challenge the resistance at 804”. I also indicated in my chart analysis on the SPX from last week that there was resistance was at 819.
How did the week really play out?  The SPX ended the week at 816!
 
The week began with a massive move up in the markets. The DOW closed up 497 points. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner went from goat to hero as he announced details regarding the Public-Private investment program designed to remove up to $1 trillion in toxic assets from the balance sheets of banks. Existing Home Sales surprised by rising 5.1% in February.
 
Tuesday experienced profit taking as one would expect after the large move on Monday. Geithner and Bernanke testified on The Hill with AIG taking most of the heat on the bonus mess. The DOW closed down 116 points.
 
Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders surprised on the upside rising 3.4% in February and New Home Sales increased 4.7% in February to spark a move higher. The DOW finished the day 90 points to the good.
 
The market received mixed news on Thursday as  4thquarter GDP was revised to a more favorable number. However, the jobless claims made record highs. Earnings came in strong for some retail stocks and the Treasury auction on 7 year notes went well as the DOW sorted through all of this and decided to trade up 175 points.
 
The week ended with the DOW retracing 148 points on declining Consumer Spending and Income Reports as several companies announced job cuts.

Week over week, the DOW gained 498, the SPX was up 48 and the COMPQ was better by 88.

Come join us at marketamer and learn how to consistently pull money from the markets.

 

CHARTS WEEK ENDING 3/27/2009


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Guy Cohen Interview with Robin

Guy Cohen Interview
Guy Cohen is the creator and originator of Flag-Trader
as well as being the author of two best selling books
published by FT Prentice Hall, with a third to follow in 2009.

Options Made Easy
The Bible of Options Strategies
Volatility Made Easy (2009)

Quote from Robin : “I strongly endorse Guy Cohen’s ‘Flagtrader’ system because [...]





Charts for the Week

By Robin Hood Trader

   

2-7-2009-11-56-33-aminduindu2

The first resistance target is 8340-8405.  If the DOW successfully breaks through that  level, with better than average volume and it stays above that area for at least two trading sessions, then chances are we will be heading to 9000.  If the DOW moves through 8400, it is likely to retest 8400 as new support before moving up.  It is very unlikely that the DOW will break support at 7900.  Robin says we’re going up.

2-7-2009-12-12-47-pmspx

We are at a confluence of resistance with the first challenge at 878 and then a host of congestion from December.  If we break through 878 on volume, we will likely continue up to 944.  If the SPX successfully moves through 878, it will most probably come back down to 878 briefly to retest old resistance which then becomes new support before starting move up to 944.  We have solid support at 800 and it is my opinion that we are not going to break it any time soon.  Robin says we’re going up.

2-7-2009-1-05-20-pmcompq

Next stop is 1666!!





THE WEEK THAT WAS 2/2-6/2009

Robin must have a crystal ball!!  Not really, he just has a knack for calling the market.  If you want to learn how he does it and learn how to trade the market the way he does, then click here.
Here is the chart commentary from last week posted on Saturday 1/31/2009.
“ 7900-8000 has exhibited remarkable [...]





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Inducing consumer paralysis: how retailers bury customers in an avalanche of choice

 

Inducing consumer paralysis: how retailers bury customers in an avalanche of choice

Three decades of behavioural experiments show consumers given too many choices are more likely to make a bad or no choice. www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Robert Slonim, University of Sydney

Do you think you are paying more than you should for energy, banking, insurance, internet and phone services? You are not alone, and you are probably right.

Companies offer a growing number of deals that supposedly enable you to choose what is best for you. Every basic economics textbook tells us greater choice should deliver cheaper prices. But in reality this isn’t necessarily the case. ...



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Insider Scoop

Baird: Broadcom Lowers Full-Year Revenue Outlook On High Channel Inventory

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ: AVGO) lowered its full-year revenue guidance, dispelling hopes of a recovery in the back half of the year, according to Baird.

The Analyst

Tristan Gerra maintained an Outperform rating on Broadcom and reduced the price target from $300 to $280.

The Thesis

Earlier ...



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Zero Hedge

Hong Kong Rocked By Biggest March Yet After Extradition Bill Pulled; Millions Demand Lam Resign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Despite City Executive Carrie Lam's major concession to the protest movement - that is, the (not really) 'indefinite' suspension of the extradition bill that catalyzed the protests - a planned protest march went ahead as scheduled on Sunday, marking the second consecutive Sunday of street protests in Hong Kong.

...



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Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Bugs Index Attempting 8-Year Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Gold Bugs fans about to receive positive news they haven’t had in years? Possible!

This chart looks at the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) on a weekly basis over a couple of decades. The index has spent the majority of the past 20-year inside of rising channel (1).

The index hit the top of the channel in 2011, where it peaked and started creating a series of lower highs for the past 8-years, which has formed line (2).

The index is now kissing the underside of falling resistance and the underside the 2016/2017 lows at (3).

Joe Friday Just The Fa...



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Chart School

Silver Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The folks in the federal reserve will debase the US dollar currency to an extreme degree silver will finally lift off the floor.. 

Note: Readers should re watch the silver back screen news video, here.

The following video looks at price action and Wyckoff logic.

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Chart in video

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.




If gold moves, silver wi...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Crashing As Asia Opens, Bitcoin Back Below $8k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having survived the day's bloodbath in US tech stocks, cryptos are crashing in the early Asian session, apparently playing catch-down to the day's de-risking.

While no catalyst is immediately evident, there are some reports noting 13 large global banks are preparing to launch digital versions of major global currencies next year, though we suspect this drop was more algorithmic that fundamental-driven.

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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