Today is a big day to start this week. I think there is a real chance that if we don’t get some good numbers from the ISM Manufacturing Index, Ford earnings, and Loews’ earnings, the market could be set for a very weak week. Friday was a very awesome day for us. We bought into Ultrashort Proshares Oil and Gas ETF (DUG). We bought into the stock at 12.85 at the top of our range. We were looking for an exit at 13.22, which we hit in the morning for 3%. Our Short Sale of the Day was Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) on an overvalued downgrade the stock got on Friday. We short sold at 12.75, and we were looking for an exit at 12.38. The stock never hit that, and we got out at 12.50 for 2%. We went 2/2 on the day.
Later tonight, I am going to post a virtual portfolio update for how we are doing based on the past two weeks of performance.
Let’s get into today’s picks…
Buy Pick of the Day: Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARNA)
The market is looking like its ready to rally, thus far, behind some very positive earnings coming out of Ford Motor Co. (F) this morning. The automaker reported a $1 billion profit for an EPS of 0.26 when estimates were for a loss of -0.12. Obviously, much of the success is based on the Cash to Clunkers Program, but no one was expecting this kind of success. The news has sent up futures this morning to as of 8:30 AM over 40 points. Humana beat estimates, reporting earnings of 1.78 vs. the
expected 1.77. Loew’s also had solid earnings reporting an EPS of 1.08 vs. the expected 0.89. Before we start to count our eggs, though, at 10 AM we have the ISM Manufacturing Index, which can definitely play into where the market is heading or at least opening. Also, at some point during the day, CIT Group’s bankruptcy has to be a factor.
There are a lot of signals coming in this morning, so where do we turn? I think that the market sentiment should be positive even if the ISM numbers come in poor. In fact, if they come in poor, it actually may help create a better buying…
Nouriel has a great op-ed in the FT, discussing the imminent reversal of the dollar carry trade, a topic Zero Hedge has been harping on for quite some time: not because we believe that in the long run America will stabilize its economy (on the contrary), but because in a globalized economy (yes, a sad side effect of $1.4 quadrillion in derivatives is the fungibility of declining asset leverage) economies are relative, not absolute concepts. While our biggest pet peeve has to do with the lack of contrarian thought in whatever the groupthink trade de jour is (when everyone is on the same side of the boat, it always inevitably capsizes), Nouriel is similarly unimpressed with what he sees is doomed to end badly for so many institutional and retail traders who are part of the herd mentality. Never one to mince words, Roubini’s conclusion is scary:
[O]ne day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments.
His reasons for the inevitable unwind are as follows:
Why will these carry trades unravel? First, the dollar cannot fall to zero and at some point it will stabilise; when that happens the cost of borrowing in dollars will suddenly become zero, rather than highly negative, and the riskiness of a reversal of dollar movements would induce many to cover their shorts. Second, the Fed cannot suppress volatility forever – its $1,800bn purchase plan will be over by next spring. Third, if US growth surprises on the upside in the third and fourth quarters, markets may start to expect a Fed tightening to come sooner, not later. Fourth, there could be a flight from risk prompted by fear of a double dip recession or geopolitical risks, such as a military confrontation between the US/Israel and Iran. As in
As the Fed is taking proactive measure to address the upcoming CRE cataclysm (as defined by WL Ross and George Soros) via gratuitous policy changes, it is useful to observe the recent market of CMBX 1-5 (2005-2007) AAA-rated trances mid-spreads. As the chart below indicates, the CMBX market may have jumped the shark on risk perceptions. CMBX 1 has dropped to sub 200 bps levels, back to pre-Lehman levels. Yet analysts are finally shifting their attention to both cumulative loss and loss severity estimates in CRE. While one may never be able to recreate the Paulson ABX trade, the current spread on CMBX may provide enough of a buffer to give the most profitable trade of the new millennium a second parallel life, based on the assumption that kicking the can down the road is not a prudent approach by the Fed and the FDIC.
Check out this report on the Obama Administration’s latest gift: free golf cart! This is from the Wall Street Journal. I really can’t add much to this.
We thought cash for clunkers was the ultimate waste of taxpayer money, but as usual we were too optimistic. Thanks to the federal tax credit to buy high-mileage cars that was part of President Obama’s stimulus plan, Uncle Sam is now paying Americans to buy that great necessity of modern life, the golf cart.
The federal credit provides from $4,200 to $5,500 for the purchase of an electric vehicle, and when it is combined with similar incentive plans in many states the tax credits can pay for nearly the entire cost of a golf cart. Even in states that don’t have their own tax rebate plans, the federal credit is generous enough to pay for half or even two-thirds of the average sticker price of a cart, which is typically in the range of $8,000 to $10,000. “The purchase of some models could be absolutely free,” Roger Gaddis of Ada Electric Cars in Oklahoma said earlier this year. “Is that about the coolest thing you’ve ever heard?”
The golf-cart boom has followed an IRS ruling that golf carts qualify for the electric-car credit as long as they are also road worthy. These qualifying golf carts are essentially the same as normal golf carts save for adding some safety features, such as side and rearview mirrors and three-point seat belts. They typically can go 15 to 25 miles per hour.
In South Carolina, sales of these carts have been soaring as dealerships alert customers to Uncle Sam’s giveaway. “The Golf Cart Man” in the Villages of Lady Lake, Florida is running a banner online ad that declares: “GET A FREE GOLF CART. Or make $2,000 doing absolutely nothing!”
Golf Cart Man is referring to his offer in which you can buy the cart for $8,000, get a $5,300 tax credit off your 2009 income tax, lease it back for $100 a month for 27 months, at which point Golf Cart Man will buy back the cart for $2,000. “This means you own a free Golf Cart or made $2,000 cash doing absolutely nothing!!!” You can’t blame a guy for exploiting loopholes that Congress offers.
The commercial real-estate crash is the worst-kept secret in the economy, but it’s happening. It’s just taking a long time to play out. (Except in the hotel industry, which essentially has "one-day leases").
Wilbur Ross and George Soros were freaking out about it on Friday:
“All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. “Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate — the return that investors are demanding to buy a property — are going up.”
U.S. commercial property sales are forecast to fall to the lowest in almost two decades as the industry endures its worst slump since the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, according to property research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices already have fallen almost 41 percent since October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 19.
Billionaire George Soros, speaking today at a lecture organized by the Central European University in Budapest, said a “bloodletting” may be coming for leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate.
That’s that. CIT has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The filing was expected, and pre-packaged, and the commercial lender hopes to be back on its feet in two months.
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.”
Declaration of Independence
“The reason this country continues its drift toward socialism and big nanny government is because too many people vote in the expectation of getting something for nothing, not because they have a concern for what is good for the country.”
Lyn Nofziger
When I decided to tackle the national healthcare issue, I thought a good start would be examining the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution to see what they had to say about the right to healthcare. I hunted and searched the various documents which created our country. I found that according to the Declaration of Independence, we have the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The Fourteenth Amendment states, No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
I did not find the right to healthcare in the Bill of Rights. I also did not find the right to an Ivy League education, the right to a well paying job, the right to a fully paid for pension, the right to drive a BMW X5, the right to a beautiful wife, the right to reside in a 6,000 sq ft McMansion, or the right to get into Heaven.
I did discover that government derives their JUST powers from the consent of the people. I also found that if those who govern use their powers in a destructive manner, the governed have the…
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT), a leading provider of financing to small businesses and middle market companies, today announced that, with the overwhelming support of its debtholders, the Board of Directors voted to proceed with the prepackaged plan of reorganization for CIT Group Inc. and a subsidiary that will restructure the Company’s debt and streamline its capital structure.
Importantly, none of CIT’s operating subsidiaries, including CIT Bank, a Utah state bank, will be included in the filings. As a result, all operating entities are expected to continue normal operations during the pendency of the cases.
All classes voted to accept the prepackaged plan and all were substantially in excess of the required thresholds for a successful vote. Approximately 85% of the Company’s eligible debt participated in the solicitation, and nearly 90% of those participating supported the prepackaged plan of reorganization.
Similarly, approximately 90% of the number of debtholders voting, both large and small, cast affirmative votes for the prepackaged plan. The conditions for consummating the exchange offers were not met.
Accordingly, CIT’s Board of Directors approved the Company to proceed with the voluntary filings for CIT Group Inc. and CIT Group Funding Company of Delaware LLC with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (“the Court”).
Due to the overwhelming and broad support from its debtholders, the Company is asking the Court for a quick confirmation of the approved prepackaged plan. Under the plan, CIT expects to reduce total debt by approximately $10 billion, significantly reduce its liquidity needs over the next three years, enhance its capital ratios and accelerate its return to profitability.
“The decision to proceed with our plan of reorganization will allow CIT to continue to provide funding to our small business and middle market customers, two sectors that remain vitally important to the U.S. economy,” said Jeffrey M. Peek, Chairman and CEO. “We are enormously appreciative of the extraordinary support we have received from our many constituencies. This market-based solution allows CIT to enter into the reorganization process well-prepared and positioned for a swift emergence. I want to thank our customers for their support and express my gratitude to our employees whose dedication and hard work are crucial to the future of CIT. We also acknowledge our constructive working relationship with our regulators and look forward to their continued guidance as we move through…
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT), a leading provider of financing to small businesses and middle market companies, today announced that, with the overwhelming support of its debtholders, the Board of Directors voted to proceed with the prepackaged plan of reorganization for CIT Group Inc. and a subsidiary that will restructure the Company’s debt and streamline its capital structure.
Importantly, none of CIT’s operating subsidiaries, including CIT Bank, a Utah state bank, will be included in the filings. As a result, all operating entities are expected to continue normal operations during the pendency of the cases.
All classes voted to accept the prepackaged plan and all were substantially in excess of the required thresholds for a successful vote. Approximately 85% of the Company’s eligible debt participated in the solicitation, and nearly 90% of those participating supported the prepackaged plan of reorganization.
Similarly, approximately 90% of the number of debtholders voting, both large and small, cast affirmative votes for the prepackaged plan. The conditions for consummating the exchange offers were not met.
Accordingly, CIT’s Board of Directors approved the Company to proceed with the voluntary filings for CIT Group Inc. and CIT Group Funding Company of Delaware LLC with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (“the Court”).
Due to the overwhelming and broad support from its debtholders, the Company is asking the Court for a quick confirmation of the approved prepackaged plan. Under the plan, CIT expects to reduce total debt by approximately $10 billion, significantly reduce its liquidity needs over the next three years, enhance its capital ratios and accelerate its return to profitability.
“The decision to proceed with our plan of reorganization will allow CIT to continue to provide funding to our small business and middle market customers, two sectors that remain vitally important to the U.S. economy,” said Jeffrey M. Peek, Chairman and CEO. “We are enormously appreciative of the extraordinary support we have received from our many constituencies. This market-based solution allows CIT to enter into the reorganization process well-prepared and positioned for a swift emergence. I want to thank our customers for their support and express my gratitude to our employees whose dedication and hard work are crucial to the future of CIT. We also acknowledge our constructive working relationship…
Paul Price discusses the "Confidence Game" being played in the stock market and how to read the indicators in this video made previously for Real Money Pro (about a year and a half ago).
Five years after the 2008 financial market collapse, governments and central banks across the globe have still re-ignited a sustained global economic expansion. What growth there has been, has been localized, sporadic and anemic. Europe remains mired in recession. The expansion in the U.S. is episodic, with alternating quarters of growth and contraction. While China, seemingly rebounding, lacks the aggregate demand to pull other economies along in its wake.
How to put the global economy on an even keel remains a puzzle to be solved. But, a more profound worldwide economic stagnation looms on the horizon. How we tackle today's problems will determine in part our ability to navigate the secular dearth of growth we are soon to face.
According to United Nations' projections, several nations in the developed world will begin to experience a contraction...
Curious why in yesterday's FOMC minutes the following line "a few participants expressed concern that conditions in certain U.S. financial markets were becoming too buoyant" received special attention? Here is the reason: as the chart below shows, according to the census bureau, the average new home sale price just hit a new all time high, rising by a record 15.4% to a record $330,800. In a country in which ...
The market went through some gyrations on Wednesday in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. He first defended continued quant easing by warning, “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but also would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery.” Stocks dutifully rallied and all major indexes hit new intraday highs.
But alas, consensus is apparently not a given over the longer term. The minutes hinted that a tapering off could start sooner, “A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth.” So …...
Few stocks have attracted more news over the last six months than nutritional supplement maker Herbalife (NYSE: HLF).
Even casual market observers are aware of the circumstances surrounding the the initial bout of extreme volatility in the name back in December 2012. The shares went into free-fall at the end of the year after hedge fund manager Bill Ackman revealed in typical sanctimonious fashion that his firm Pershing Square Capital Management was short around $1 billion worth of the stock.
Amid much pomp and circumstance, Ackman laid out his short thesis at a New York investment conference and...
SKS - Saks, Inc. – Timely bullish bets initiated in Saks options just seconds prior to the closing bell on Tuesday are generating sizable gains for at least one trader today, with shares in the high-end retailer up at the highest level since 2008. The stock closed Tuesday up 11% on the day at $13.67 after the company reported first-quarter revenue above average analyst expectations. Within minutes of the close shares in SKS moved sharply to the upside after the New York Post, citing a source familiar with the matter, reported...
The indexes along with a host of stocks are putting in a bearish outside candle today (over yesterday's highs and below yesterday's lows). Typically this is … well bearish. But in the QE era when a technical signal screams bearish it has tended to be completely forgotten within a few days, causing those who follow it to get squeezed if you are short or left behind if you go to cash. This is the difficulty of the current market – QE causes it not to behave as normal. In the "old days" today would be a day to take major note of.
The RSI I noted at an extremely rare 75 this morning, is...
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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
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By Craigzooka
I am going to share with you how I manage my IRA and the power of reducing your cost basis. My goal each year is a 20% return in my IRA. Sometimes I make it and sometimes I don't, but I believe that all of my success is due to reducing my cost basis. To illustrate the power of reducing your cost basis here are some trades we did last year. These trades are taken from an educational portfolio we ran in a paper-trading account for a little more than a year.
We bought RIG on 5/15/2012 for $44.13, sold it on 1/18/2013 for $46 but booked a profit of $1,154.
We bought MT on 1/4/2012 for $19.24, sold it on 12/21/2012 for $15 but booked a profit of $454.
We bought CHK on 1/27/2012 for $21.93, sold it on 10/19/2012 for $18 b...
Stock market posts another record setting week, but the big news came after Friday’s close.
Courtesy of NASA
The stock market put on another record setting show with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) closing at a record high 15,118 and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) closing at 1633.70, another all time closing high.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 1%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) climbed 1.2%, the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:...
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Well, well, well....it is good to know that there are others in the scientific arena who believed that YMI Bioscience's data (cough - Gilead) is a better drug than Incyte's Jakafi. Now, the definitive data are still unknown, but there was enough evidence from a Phase 2 trial to take a small risk for a huge reward. So, let's forget about Apple (AAPL), and do nothing but biotechs from now until Congress passes universal health care coverage for prescriptions....and drive the prices down so that research and development is no longer feasible to conduct in the US. Even Seattle Genetics (SGEN) has been on a tear as of late...
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Today is a big day to start this week. I think there is a real chance that if we don’t get some good numbers from the ISM Manufacturing Index, Ford earnings, and Loews’ earnings, the market could be set for a very weak week. Friday was a very awesome day for us. We bought into Ultrashort Proshares Oil and Gas ETF (DUG). We bought into the stock at 12.85 at the top of our range. We were looking for an exit at 13.22, which we hit in the morning for 3%. Our Short Sale of the Day was Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) on an overvalued downgrade the stock got on Friday. We short sold at 12.75, and we were looking for an exit at 12.38. The stock never hit that, and we got out at 12.50 for 2%. We went 2/2 on the day. 
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I did not find the right to healthcare in the Bill of Rights. I also did not find the right to an Ivy League education, the right to a well paying job, the right to a fully paid for pension, the right to drive a BMW X5, the right to a beautiful wife, the right to reside in a 6,000 sq ft McMansion, or the right to get into Heaven.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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