Archive for 2010

Upcoming Weekly Calendar

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

A look at the key economic events in the relatively quiet week ahead from the perspective (and benchmarks) of Goldman Sachs.


Week Ahead

European developments As mentioned, the better than expected 2Q Eurozone GDP numbers on Friday failed to lift EUR/$, which ended the week 4% lower. As highlighted in Friday’s Daily, we do see near term risks for the EUR--one of the reasons we incorporated downside risks to our EUR/$ forecast (1.22 in 3-months), to reflect the potential for rising political tension again. We are again seeing some noise on this front in recent days with the EUR being weighed upon with news headlines such as possible Spanish deviation from fiscal austerity measures. It is interesting also to note that sovereign CDS spreads in the European periphery have also started to creep back up. This is something that we will be paying close attention to in coming weeks and months.

US manufacturing data This week’s Empire, Philly Fed, industrial production and advanced GLI reading are important as usual in gauging the pace of slowing industrial momentum in the US. Consensus expects a slight improvement in both the Empire and Philly Fed readings. We do not forecast the Empire survey, but on the more representative Philly Fed (which is also a component of our GLI), we are expecting a decline.

TICs We get the June TIC s release which will allow us to gauge the latest US Q2 BBoP picture. The US trade deficit has been widening out, especially stark in last week’s June release, which widened out to almost $50bn from $42bn. We’ll see what the upcoming TICs release shows but overall, the underlying flows picture is likely to remain USD negative still.

Central Banks We’ll see some central bank news in the form of the RBA and BOE minutes as well as meetings in Turkey and Mexico. We expect the RBA minutes to make it clearer that the Board is in no rush to move rates higher (even if a subtle tightening bias remains). Our Australian economists continue to expect rates on hold till November. For the BOE MPC minutes, we are not expecting much incremental information, coming right after the last Inflation Report. For the meetings in Turkey and Mexico, we are expecting rates to be left unchanged, in-line with consensus.

Monday 16th

Japan 2Q GDP We expect 2Q GDP data…
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Ratigan On Geithner: A Corrupt, Captured Wall Street Scoundrel

Ratigan On Geithner: A Corrupt, Captured Wall Street Scoundrel (Video Beatdown)

Courtesy of The Daily Bail

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Video:  Dylan Ratigan torches Treasury Secretary Tim — Aired Aug. 3, 2010

Watch at least the first 2:45.

Previously:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Video:  One man battles Bank of America and wins — Dylan Ratigan Show


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Jon Stewart: Boehner Is Profoundly Retarded, Deficit Monster Is Going To Eat Our Babies

Jon Stewart: Boehner Is Profoundly Retarded, Deficit Monster Is Going To Eat Our Babies (Must See)

Courtesy of The Daily Bail 

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Deductible Me
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Tea Party

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart 

  • "Republicans don’t realize that extending the Bush tax cuts will strengthen the deficit monster that’s going to eat our babies."
  • Jon Stewart didn’t really know what to say last night about Republicans who complain about the deficit but advocate for renewing the Bush tax cuts. So he turned to House Minority Leader "and retired Syracuse mascot" John Boehner (R-OH) for a solution to the country’s economic woes. Boehner has said that "the only way we’re going to get our economy going again and solve our budget problems is to get the economy moving."
  • "The only way to get our economy going, is to get it moving?" Stewart asked. "That is either the most profound or most retarded statement I’ve ever heard. You know what, actually it’s the most profoundly retarded statement I’ve ever heard."

Mission f’ing accomplished.  Seriously.  And for the record, I could care less about the Bush tax cuts and whether or not they’re extended.  The top rate has alternated between 36% and 39% for 2 decades, and I honestly don’t think it will make much difference if it shifts back to 39%.  Shoot me.  I believe that tax cuts generally encourage growth, but austerity is finally coming to our shores, and I prefer not to fight something I’ve been begging for.

Back to the mission. Debt and deficit awareness.  That’s all it’s about.  It’s why I launched the Bail. I saw the train coming and knew there had to be a site to chronicle, curate, aggregate.  And frankly, after worrying about unfunded entitlements for most of my adult life, I…
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A Couple Of Pointers For TheStreet.com On Blogging Etiquette

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Our religulous readers at theStreet.com decided to take a stab at Zero Hedge over the weekend due to our discovery, first among all media, that the Hindenburg Omen had struck this past Thursday. We take this opportunity to teach theStreet a few of the key rules of blogging etiquette.

1. A website run by Jim Cramer describes Zero Hedge narrative as if “writing in a vein that seems made for professional boxing or WWE pay-per-view event hype, describes the Hindenburg Omen as “Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined). Those who know what it is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention.“  Seriously? Jim Cramer’s website accusing someone of hype? That’s some serious “crossing the streams” voodoo. We have nothing to say here – South Park’s Eric Cartman did the best job of describing Mr. Cramer’s own style previously.

2. Oddly enough, The Street had no such qualms about the description of the Hindenburg Omen by David Buik at BGC Partners. As the Telegraph highlighted out, Buik “drew attention to the Hindenburg Omen, which he described somewhat theatrically as “easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism”.” Hmm – this seems oddly identical to our own language, which the Street decided to ridicule. While we may or may not seek copyright arbitration vis-a-vis the nice folks at BGC, it seems somewhat obtuse of theStreet’s staff to take offense by our characterization of the H.O., but not an idential one presented by one “of the world’s leading interdealer brokers.” Why the bias?

3. It is accepted etiquette to link up to the source, especially when that source breaks the news. Benzinga and most other sources did so. Does theStreet.com think traditional web rules do not apply to it? Or perhaps, theStreet believes that no rules apply to it? To wit, and as a case study of hyperlinking for the sole benefit of theStreet, we present this example of how that whole procees works, from a previous Zero Hedge post. Note the hyperlink to thestreet’s form 12B-25:

Jim Cramer’s TheStreet Is Being Investigated By The SEC

Seek and ye shall find. Never has this been more


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Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of August 16th, 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. PLease click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

 

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio





Let BABs Die

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The Sunday talk show economic topic was what to do with the Bush tax cuts that expire at the end of this year. I thought I heard a unanimous voice from the likes of Zandi, Corzine, Tyson and (surprisingly/importantly) Senator Corker (R.Tenn.) that Congress should act quickly to agree to do nothing on those tax increases for at least another year. Look for that terrible choice to be made sometime in the next month.
There is another government program that is headed for the sunset New Year’s Eve. The Build America Bond (“BAB”) subsidy program was one of those “emergency” measures taken back in 09. The program was part of the ARRA stimulus legislation. This deal has Wall Street “deep thinking” all over it. I think it is a legacy idea from Hank Paulson. Geithner probably took some notes at a meeting in 08 and a year later it was law.

 

One of the many risks to the economy back then was whether the municipalities across the country would be able to access the capital markets to fund big ticket projects like schools, water treatment and other infrastructure investments. BABs addressed the problem by allowing the municipalities to fund in the taxable market. The audience for taxable bonds is very big. BABs opened the door for muni’s to issue taxable debt. However, when issuing taxable debt those same borrowers faced a much higher cost than if they had issued tax-exempt securities. Muni’s trade about 20% richer (historical) to taxable because of the tax break. To offset this cost and to encourage local governments to borrow and spend Uncle Sam has agreed to rebate the borrower for 35% of the interest expense.
I expect that the BABs legislation will be rolled into the Bush tax roll-over and they will both be extended for at least another twelve months. Shame on us. BABs should die because:
-This was an emergency measure. It was deliberately keep on a short time frame. This stopgap measure is no longer needed economically. But more importantly we need to get off the federal life support and see how the patient is breathing.
-Tax-exempt muni yields have collapsed. Even California bonds have been a big winner. Their


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South Korea’s Pensions to Boost Equity Stake

Courtesy of Leo Kolivakis

Via Pension Pulse.

Jung Jae-yoon reports in the JoongAng Daily, Pension funds seen increasing equity stake:

Analysts say they expect the nation’s public pension funds, which now hold more than 300 trillion won ($252.73 billion) in assets, to be increasing their equity holdings soon.

A new survey showed that 330 trillion won in total is held by the nation’s main pension funds, including the National Pension Fund, the Retirement Pension Fund, the Korea Teachers Pension Fund, the Government Employees Pension Fund and the Military Pension Fund, the Financial Supervisory Service said yesterday.

The data is based on the amount held at the end of June, except for the Military Pension Fund, the latest figures for which were at the end of 2009.

Nearly 98 percent of the pension funds, or 326 trillion won, is invested in various financial instruments, with bonds taking the biggest portion, followed by equities and alternative investments such as real estate.

In the case of the National Pension Fund, which is the biggest by far with 294.95 trillion won in assets, 75.7 percent of its financial investments are in bonds, with 19.1 percent in various forms of equities and 5 percent in alternative investments.

Analysts say that the public pension funds are likely to increase their exposure to equities in an effort to get bigger returns on their investments than that offered by bonds.

Pension funds still lack the clout in influencing the stock market in the same way as foreign investors. At the end of June, foreigners held 301.07 trillion won worth in equities and 67.82 trillion won in bonds.

But market analysts believe there is a possibility that pension funds could become a key power in the local stock market to challenge that of foreigners.

“Domestic national pension funds will have little choice but to expand their portion of equity investments in the future since they can’t generate high returns through bonds when interest are so low. The pension funds hold a smaller portion of equity investments compared to those in advanced countries,” said Oh Sung-jin, research head at Hyundai Securities.

The National Pension Fund is the fourth largest in the world.

You’ll remember South Korea’s National pension Service recorded an overall return of minus 0.75% in 2008, its first loss ever, with its investment in stocks yielding…
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The Trade Deficit Nightmare

The Trade Deficit Nightmare

Courtesy of Michael Snyder of Economic Collapse 

When they hear the word deficit, most Americans immediately think of the U.S. government budget deficit which is rapidly spiralling out of control.  But that is not the only deficit which is ripping the U.S. economy to shreds.  In fact, many economists commonly speak of the "twin deficits" that are destroying the U.S. financial system.  So what is the "other deficit" that they are referring to?  It is the trade deficit.  Every single month, we buy much more stuff from the rest of the world than they buy from us.  That means that every single month there is a massive outflow of wealth from the United States.  Every single day, America becomes just a little bit poorer as Americans continue to run out and fill up their shopping carts with cheap plastic crap from China and dozens of other emerging economies. 

Not that trade is a bad thing.  Trade can actually be a very good thing.  But the gigantic trade imbalances that the United States has been running for years are absolutely bleeding us dry.  Unfortunately, our politicians have just stood idly by as each month we continue to transfer massive amounts of wealth out of the United States.

The U.S. Commerce Department recently announced that the U.S. trade deficit increased by 18.8 percent in June to $49.9 billion.  Most analysts had expected the figure to be somewhere around 41 to 43 billion dollars.

In the month of June, imports rose to approximately $200 billion while exports fell to about $150 billion.

So can we afford to have a net outflow of 50 billion dollars each and every month?

Of course not.

We had so much wealth as a nation that we could afford to do this for a while,…
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America’s Biggest Jobs Program — the U.S. Military

America’s Biggest Jobs Program — the U.S. Military

Courtesy of Robert Reich

United Launch Alliance's Atlas V rocket is set for the inaugural launch of a USAF X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on April 22, 2010. Deemed as a mini-space shuttle, the totally automated X-37B contains the most advanced technologies in navigation, power and thermal protection. At nearly 30 feet tall, weighing 11,000 pounds, this first reusable unmanned spacecraft will spend an undisclosed period in orbit so that the USAF may test and validate its systems. The spaceplane will then return to earth and land at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.. UPI/Joe Marino-Bill Cantrell Photo via Newscom

America’s biggest — and only major — jobs program is the U.S. military.

Over 1,400,000 Americans are now on active duty; another 833,000 are in the reserves, many full time. Another 1,600,000 Americans work in companies that supply the military with everything from weapons to utensils. (I’m not even including all the foreign contractors employing non-US citizens.)

If we didn’t have this giant military jobs program, the U.S. unemployment rate would be over 11.5 percent today instead of 9.5 percent.

And without our military jobs program personal incomes would be dropping faster. The Commerce Department reported Monday the only major metro areas where both net earnings and personal incomes rose last year were San Antonio, Texas, Virginia Beach, Virginia, and Washington, D.C. — because all three have high concentrations of military and federal jobs.

This isn’t an argument for more military spending. Just the opposite. Having a giant undercover military jobs program is an insane way to keep Americans employed. It creates jobs we don’t need but we keep anyway because there’s no honest alternative. We don’t have an overt jobs program based on what’s really needed.

For example, when Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced Monday his plan to cut spending on military contractors by more than a quarter over three years, congressional leaders balked. Military contractors are major sources of jobs back in members’ states and districts. California’s Howard P. “Buck” McKeon, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, demanded that the move “not weaken the nation’s defense.” That’s congress-speak for “over my dead body.”

Gates simultaneously announced closing the Joint Force Command in Norfolk, Virginia, that employs 6,324 people and relies on 3,300 private contractors. This prompted Virginia Democratic Senator Jim Webb, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, to warn that the closure “would be a step backward.” Translated: “No chance in hell.”

Gates can’t even end useless weapons programs. That’s because they’re covert jobs programs that employ thousands.

He wants to stop production of the C-17 cargo jet he says is no longer needed. But it keeps 4,000 people working at Boeing’s Long Beach assembly plant and 30,000 others at Boeing suppliers strategically located in 40 states. So despite Gates’s protests the Senate has approved ten new orders.

That’s still not enough to keep all those C-17 workers…
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Mass Delusion – American Style

Mass Delusion – American Style

Courtesy of Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” – Charles Mackay - Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds

 

The American public thinks they are rugged individualists, who come to conclusions based upon sound reason and a rational thought process. The truth is that the vast majority of Americans act like a herd of cattle or a horde of lemmings. Throughout history there have been many instances of mass delusion. They include the South Sea Company bubble, Mississippi Company bubble, Dutch Tulip bubble, and Salem witch trials. It appears that mass delusion has replaced baseball as the national past-time in America. In the space of the last 15 years the American public have fallen for the three whopper delusions:

  1. Buy stocks for the long run
  2. Homes are always a great investment
  3. Globalization will benefit all Americans

Bill Bonner and Lila Rajiva ponder why people have always acted in a herd like manner in their outstanding book Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics:

“Of course, we doubt if many public prescriptions are really intended to solve problems. People certainly believe they are when they propose them. But, like so much of what goes on in a public spectacle, its favorite slogans, too, are delusional – more in the nature of placebos than propositions. People repeat them like Hail Marys because it makes them feel better. Most of our beliefs about the economy – and everything else – are of this nature. They are forms of self medication, superstitious lip service we pay to the powers of the dark, like touching wood….or throwing salt over your shoulder. “Stocks for the long run,” “Globalization is good.” We repeat slogans to ourselves, because everyone else does. It is not so much bad luck we want to avoid as being on our own. Why it is that losing your life savings should be less painful if you have lost it in the company of one million other losers, we don’t know. But mankind is first of all a herd animal and fears nothing more than not being part of the herd.”

Stocks for the


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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The amount of money Americans say they spend in a day has gone basically nowhere in the last two years (Business Insider)

Gallup just released the results of a poll asking Americans how much money they spent in a day on discretionary items, excluding major home purchases and regular bills. Respondents are asked how much they spent "yesterday," or the day before they were contacted by the pollster.

Chinese Stocks Open Down Ha...



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Zero Hedge

THERE'S Your Hyperinflation!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Gold Standard Institute.

by Keith Weiner

Hyperinflation is commonly defined as rapidly rising prices which get out of control. For example, the Wikipedia entry begins, “In economics, hyperinflation occurs when a country experiences very high and usually accelerating rates of inflation, rapidly eroding the real value of the local currency…” Let’s restate this in terms of purchasing power. In hyperinflation, the purchasing power of the currency collapses. Before the
onset, suppose one collapsar buys ten loaves of bread. Soon, it buys only one loaf. Shortly thereafter, it buys only one slice. Next, it can only purchase a saltine cracker. Pretty soon the coll...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.Date Found: Friday, 05 June 2015, 03:53:56 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: FAIR QUESTION: is the Fed simply rising rates just so it badly crashes the economy and has the cover to launch QE4, the same way Russian sanctions crippled Germany's economy and led to the ECB's very first episode of bond monetization?

Date Found: Friday, 05 June 2015, 08:54:03 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Zerohedge : This is the simplest way to describe Keynesianism: A slow steady rise up, with quick steps down towards where you came from.

Date Found: Saturday, 06 June 2015, 02:12:32 AM...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls prepare for a new buying opportunity, courtesy of Greece

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Of course, all eyes have been on Greece in an ongoing saga that, although critical to the Greeks, is mostly just an annoying distraction for global investors -- partly because it has been going on for so many years, with the proverbial can of inevitability continually being kicked down the road, and partly because there can be no winners in this intractable situation. Predictably, the electorate chose to follow the advice of the communists that they elected and reject the rigid bailout offer, calling the bluff of the IMF, ECB, and Eurozone and betting they will do whatever it takes to avoid losing one of its members. These are uncharted waters, and with the resultant s...



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Phil's Favorites

There is Only One Way Out For Greece

Courtesy of Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics

Brussels has been dead wrong. The stupid idea that the euro will bring stability and peace, as it was sold from the outset, has migrated to European domination as if this were “Game of Thrones”. Those in power have misread history, almost at every possible level. The assumption that the D-marks’ strength was a good thing that would transfer to the euro has failed because they failed to comprehend the backdrop to the D-mark.

Germany moved opposite of the USA toward extreme austerity and conservative economics because of its experience with hyperinflation. The USA moved toward stimulation because of the austerity policies that created the Great ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Leading indicator breakdowns, more important than Greece?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Has Greece been a good economic indicator over the past few years? Most would say NOT!

Could Crude & Copper be sending a more important global message than what happens in Greece?

A year ago a long-term pennant pattern in play with Crude Oil. Once it started heading south a year ago, it fell hard. Crude Oil’s rally took it 23% retracement level and its 200MA line of late at (1) below. See what is happening now!

CLICK ON CHART ENLARGE

Crude is breaking below this multi-week pennant pattern after failing to climb above Fibonacci resistance and its 200ma...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 6th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges After Initial Forecasts Show "No" Vote Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the early bitcoin markets are an indication of what will happen once New Zealand opens for illiquid FX trade, it will be a risk off kinda day.

And that doesn't even take into account the pandemonium that will be unleashed in China in a few hours after the PBOC just went all-in to halt the crashing stock market. What if it fails to get a green close before tomorrow's US open?

Source: ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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