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Archive for June, 2011

So Much For That Japanese Recovery: Large Manufacturer Confidence Plummets

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

So much for the Japanese renaissance which somehow is supposed to lead to a surge in Q3 US GDP growth. Following yesterday’s surprisingly strong factory production growth rate of +5.7% (the second highest in history), every economist (and Joe LaVorgna), was already shifting their strawman from declining energy costs (which are now back to early June levels courtesy of the IEA idiocy), to Japan as the last bastion of growth. Alas, the just released Tankan quarterly index of large manufacturer confidence has confirmed that the rumors of Japan’s economic reincarnation have been greatly exaggerated after it dropped by the most since the Lehman collapse, plunging from +6 in March to -9, well below the economist (and Joe LaVorgna) consensus of -7. From Bloomberg: “Forecasts by Panasonic Corp. (6752) and Hitachi Ltd. for weaker earnings have added to signs of depressed demand. Monetary tightening by Asian economies grappling with inflation means that Japanese companies also can’t count on customers within the region for boosting sales. “The global economy is starting to slow, heightening uncertainties about its future direction,” Ryutaro Kono, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo, said before the report. “The downside risks to China and other emerging economies seem to be on the rise.” In other words, the global economic growth is impacting Japan, and it is not the Japanese slowdown that is impairing some mythical global growth story. Of course, by the time the economist (and Joe LaVorgna) pool figures this out, QE 3 will be well on its way.

There’s more:

Household demand has also been weak, with consumer outlays sliding 1.9 percent in May, a report today showed, a larger drop that predicted by analysts. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.5 percent as more people gave up on looking for work and disaster areas were excluded from the survey. Consumer prices excluding fresh food increased 0.6 percent in May, the government said.

Panasonic last week forecast full-year profit will tumble 59 percent in the fiscal year started April after the earthquake disrupted factories and suppliers. Sales of car-related components and mobile phones will probably drop because of supply-chain bottlenecks, Panasonic’s Chief Financial Officer Makoto Uenoyama said.

Hitachi Ltd. last month forecast net income will drop 16 percent this fiscal year after the temblor crippled its factories.

Recent data indicates


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Caught In The Act: HFT Option Algos Observed Frontrunning Today’s PMI Release

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In another case of purely coincidental serendipity, three days ago Zero Hedge informed readers that the “NYSE Boerse [sic] has just announced its purchase of Kingsbury International Ltd., which surveys managers for the Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the company that hosts the Chicago PMI data, in order to bring PMI data direct to feed subscribers. Net result: expect even more market volatility at each PMI release, now that the market is not two but three-tiered, and consisting of regular HFTs, HFTs with access to the Deutsche Boerse feed, and everyone else.” We concluded: “It is unclear if the ultra-speed, HFT friendly feed would be activated before its next release on June 30. That said, we will certainly coordinate with our friends at Nanex for any trading abnormalities, primarily in the critical ES futures, this Thursday at 9:42am, keeping a close eye on the tape, and indicating precisely when the tiered data release hits.” Well, as promised here is the Nanex data. As expected, it’s a stunner.

The shocker, however, resides not in the stock arena, but in what is now becoming the go to place for bulk frontrunning high frequency trading algorithms to chase what little volatility is left in the equity market: options, which, as previously noted, we now are confident will be the cause for the next big market wipe out.

Per Nanex:

Approximately 1/2 second before the 9:42 release of the Chicago PMI report, the option market exploded setting new records in quote rates, saturation, and delays. We have not yet determined why the equity market did not see a record explosion of quote traffic; rather it experienced the normal saturation/delay that happens all too frequently every trading day.

The electronic S&P 500 futures experienced a withdrawal of liquidity beginning about a minute before the release of the PMI number. At approximately 9:41:59.550, 1275 contracts cleared through 4 levels of the offer side of the order book. This coincided with the explosion in OPRA quote traffic.

The first image shows quote message rates for each of the 12 CQS data lines that carry data for NYSE, AMEX, and ARCA equities and ETFs in 2ms intervals. Notice how quickly activity drops after the peak compared to the OPRA images below it. Normally, options activity follows equity activity very closely.


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Measuring the Performance of the Ivy Portfolio

Courtesy of Doug Short

I’ve been posting a monthly moving average update for the five ETFs in featured in Mebane Faber and Eric Richardson’s Ivy Portfolio since the spring of 2009, when I featured my review of the book.

In addition to the monthly updates, last year I made a couple of generic studies of momentum investing with moving averages.

Learning from the S&P 500 Monthly MAs
Learning from the Nikkei Monthly MAs

Investing strategies are not the primary focus of my website, and I don’t personally track the performance of the Ivy Portfolio other than to highlight the monthly signals. For ETF performance tracking and backtesting, I use ETFReplay.com, an excellent website for analyzing the performance of individual ETFs and ETF portfolios based on customized moving-average strategies. There are many free tools on ETFReplay.com. However performance backtesting of portfolios does require a paid subscription.

 

The image below illustrates my research on the Ivy Portfolio since 2007. If you click the image, you’ll open a HUGE version that also shows the monthly performance over the complete range as compared to SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Index). For cash, I’ve used SHY (Barclays Low Duration Treasury (2-yr).

 

Click to View
Click for a HUGE image

 

Now, the portfolio in this illustration doesn’t *exactly* match the Ivy five. I picked 2007 as my starting point to show the performance from before the market peak in the Fall of that year. Thus I was forced to make one substitution for the Ivy ETFs — EFA (iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund) in place of VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF), which was launched in early 2007 and didn’t produce a 10-month signal until December of that year. But the substitution presumably understates the all-Vanguard IVY portfolio: I make this assumption because the latest VEU monthly close has outperformed EFA since the March 2009 monthly close (84.5% versus 73.0%).

For anyone interested in researching momentum investing with ETFs, the ETFReplay.com website is an outstanding resource, one that I’m pleased to include in my dshort Favorites.

 

 

 

 

 





Daily Market Commentary: Rallies to Resistance

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

For a fourth day in a row markets posted gains. This took lead indices to resistance, although the Dow bucked the trend by smashing through.

I haven’t focused on the Dow as it hasn’t done anything unique, but today the Dow broke declining resistance connecting reaction highs for April. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, supporting the validity of the break.

($INDU)

via StockCharts.com

The S&P wasn’t able to achieve the same success, finishing the day at declining resistance. Volume was also lighter, although it was able to close above its 50-day MA. It might be a tall ask to see a fifth day of gains, but with the Dow comfortably ahead it’s not outside expectation (although unlikely).

($SPX)

via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq was interesting. Like the S&P it finished at resistance, but unlike the S&P and the Dow, technicals turned net bullish. So while price action underperformed that of the Dow, technically it’s better positioned for further gains. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day.

($COMPQ)

via StockCharts.com

It’s supported by declining resistance breakouts in supporting breadth indicators, like the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA.

($NAA50R)

via StockCharts.com

Finally, the Russell 2000 is in a similar position to the Nasdaq; finishing at resistance with technicals net bullish.

($RUT)

via StockCharts.com

For tomorrow, despite bullish technicals for the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq, look for modest losses as bulls prepare to drive a break of resistance and follow the lead of the Dow. The S&P is perhaps in the weakest position and the index most likely to show downside. The chief area lacking has been volume, this will have to increase if a break of declining resistance is to stick, irrespective of the index.





Current Treasury Snapshot

Courtesy of Doug Short

Quick take: Today was the last day of QE2, culminating in a four-day rally in stocks that probably had more to do with end-of-quarter accounting than then end of the Fed’s intervention. Yields have popped and Treasuries have plummeted across the spectrum. The ten-year note, which closed last week at its lowest yield since last November, is up 30 basis points in four days.


The behavior of Treasuries has been an area of special interest in light of the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing, which was formally announced on November 3rd. The first chart shows the percent change for a basket of eight Treasuries since November 4th.

 

Click to View
Click for a larger image

 

The next chart shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The source for the yields is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates from the US Department of the Treasury and the New York Fed’s website for the FFR.

 

Click to View
Click for a larger image

 

Here’s a closer look at the past year with the 30-year fixed mortgage added to the mix (excluding points).

 

Click to View
Click for a larger image

 

Here’s a comparison of the yield curve at three points in time: 1) the Fed’s QE2 announcement, 2) the February interim high for the 7, 10, 20 and 30-year yields 3) and the latest curve.

 

 

The next chart shows the 2- and 10-year yields with the 2-10 spread highlighted in the background.

 

Click to View
Click for a larger image

 

The final chart is an overlay of the CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year Treasury Note (TNX) and the S&P 500.

 

Click to View
Click for a larger image

 

For a long-term view of weekly Treasury yields, also focusing on the 10-year, see my Treasury Yields in Perspective.

 

 

 

 





Where Is Tim Geithner Headed Next?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Goldman Sachs
 
36% (15 votes)
JP Morgan
 
10% (4 votes)
Any bank that will have him
 
7% (3 votes)
Tax Consultancy
 
2% (1 vote)
McDonalds
 
5% (2 votes)
Any company that will have him
 
0% (0 votes)
Ive League Professor
 
12% (5 votes)
Any non-profit that will have him
 
2% (1 vote)
Extended Unemployment Claims
 
10% (4 votes)
Solitary Confinement
 
2% (1 vote)
Other
 
14% (6 votes)
Total votes: 42




Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short

Valid until the market close on July 29, 2011

The S&P 500 closed the month of June 1.83% below the previous monthly close. However, all three S&P 500 monthly moving averages we’ve been tracking are signaling an equities position. See the specifics here.

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I’ve also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy.

Backtesting Moving Averages

Monthly Close Signals Over the past few years I’ve used Excel to track the performance of various moving-average timing strategies. But now I use the backtesting tools available on the ETFReplay.com website. Anyone who is interested in market timing with ETFs should have a look at this website. Here are the two tools I most frequently use:

Background on Moving Averages

Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the precise top or back in at the very bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), such as we’ve experienced this summer.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have insured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight variant on the simple moving average. This version mathematically increases the weighting of newer data in the 10-month sequence. Since 1995 it has produced fewer whipsaws than the equivalent simple moving average, although it was a month slower to signal a sell after these two market tops.

A look…
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Fed Halts Sales Of Toxic AIG Sludge Upon Realization Any Balance Sheet Unwind Crashes The Market

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Three weeks ago, when discussing the failed (yes, failed) Maiden Lane 2 auction by the New York Fed, we said: ‘Something quite disturbing happened during today’s latest attempt by the Fed to sell $3.8 billion in face amount of Maiden Lane 2 assets: it had a busted dutch auction. In fact, the auction was so massively busted, the New York Fed managed to sell only half of the bonds for sale, or $1.898 billion in 36 Cusips of the total 73 Cusips offered for sale." Subsequently we noted the sudden radiosilence from the Fed on this issue on Twitter. To be sure, every MBS trader and the kitchen sink promptly complained that the Fed was saturating the market with toxic AIG garbage, which prompted us to declare that: "unless someone opens up a release valve, we are about to see a massive regurgitation and even more massive repricing of credit risk, first in IG, then in HY and ABX/CMBX, and lastly, and most massively, in equities, which continue to exist in their own world and which are now totally disconnected with HY, which they used to track so very closely." We just got the release valve: from Bloomberg: "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is halting its sales of mortgage bonds acquired in the rescue of American International Group Inc. "Given prevailing market conditions” for residential mortgage-backed securities, “we do not anticipate any sales of bonds in the near term or until such time as the New York Fed deems it will achieve value for the public," Jack Gutt, a New York Fed spokesman said in an e-mail." Uh, what prevailing market conditions: a Nasdaq which has ripped over 100 points in one week (granted on no volume and on unprecedented market manipulation but so what). Regardless, this is a huge slap in the face for the Fed, which has just proven that even in a surging market it can not unwind an amount from its book that is less than 1% of its total asset holdings without actually crashing the market.

We certainly can not wait for BTIG’s spin on this news tomorrow.

In the meantime, we remind readers of what we predicted, accurately, on June 9:

If dealers and funds are unable to handle a mere $31 billion MBS portfolio disposition, and its weekly sale (think of its


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ITC Rules Against Kodak in Lawsuit With Apple

Courtesy of Benzinga

The ruling can be found at this link.

In relevant part, the ruling reads, “Notice is hereby given that the U.S. International Trade Commission has determined to affirm in part, reverse in part, and remand in part, the final initial determination issued by the presiding administrative law judge on January 24, 2011, finding no violation of section 337 in the above-captioned investigation.”





Waccamaw to Appeal NASDAQ Decision

Courtesy of Benzinga





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

The Only Chart You Will Need To Trade Russian Sanctions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

US and European financials faded notably after Europe and then US unveiled new sanctions against Russia today. Most notably, the decision to sanction Russia's largest banks (and ban trading and capital markets access) has ramifications for the global financial system's stability given the increasingly inter-connected nature of the world. For that reason, we thought Bloomberg Briefs' chart of the most exposed banking systems by nation to any systemic issues in Russia would be useful.

 

 

As Maxime Sbaihi reports,

...



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Chart School

The End of QE: Some Common Misunderstandings

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

I have discussed for some time that there are a couple of inherent misunderstandings about the Federal Reserve's ending of the current large-scale asset purchase program (LSAP), or more affectionately known as Quantitative Easing (QE). The first is "tapering is not tightening" and the second is "interest rates will rise." Let me explain.

The Federal Reserve has been running extremely "accommodative" monetary policies since the end 2008. The two primary goals of the Federal Reserve have been to artificially suppress interest rates and boost asset prices in "hopes" that an organic economic recovery would take root. As I quoted in "How E...



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Phil's Favorites

Oh Yeah, About That Con Con Con

Oh Yeah, About That Con Con Con

Courtesy of Lee Adler 

As usual, the Conference Board and all the major media press release repeaters put a positive spin on the highest reading of Consumer Confidence (aka the Con Con Con) since October 2007. None of the media echo chamber reports pointed out that October 2007 was the beginning of the worst bear market in US stocks since 1973-74. So I thought it important that the issue be given a little perspective (as I did recently with the Thompson Rhoiders Michigan Con Index).

First things first, the Con Con Con is an amalgamation of the results of two survey questions presented to “consumers” (aka real people). One question asks...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Report: IBM Rejects Offer For Chip Operations

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related IBM Blackberry Attempts To Rebound From IBM/Apple Deal The 10 Most-Respected Corporate Brands Can the iRally Endure? (Fox Business)

International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) rejected an offer for part of its semiconductor manufacturing operations, according to unnamed sources cited by ...



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Option Review

Kellogg Call Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

Shares in packaged foods producer Kellogg Co. (Ticker: K) are in positive territory on Monday afternoon, trading up by roughly 0.20% at $65.48 as of 2:20 p.m. ET. Options volume on the stock is well above average levels today, with around 12,500 contracts traded on the name versus an average daily reading of around 1,700 contracts. Most of the volume is concentrated in September expiry calls, perhaps ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report set for release ahead of the opening bell on Thursday. Time and sales data suggests traders are snapping up calls at the Sep 67.5, 70.0 and 72.5 strikes. Volume is heaviest in the Sep 72.5 strike calls, with around 4,600 contracts traded against sizable open interest of approximately 11,800 contracts. It looks like traders paid an average premium of $0.37 per contrac...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bold bulls dare meek bears to take another crack

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Once again, stocks have shown some inkling of weakness. But every other time for almost three years running, the bears have failed to pile on and get a real correction in gear. Will this time be different? Bulls are almost daring them to try it, putting forth their best Dirty Harry impression: “Go ahead, make my day.” Despite weak or neutral charts and moderately bullish (at best) sector rankings, the trend is definitely on the side of the bulls, not to mention the bears’ neurotic skittishness about emerging into the sunlight.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, incl...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 28th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW in the comments below each post. 

Our weekly newsletter Stock World Weekly is ready for your enjoyment.

Read about the week ahead, trade ideas from Phil, and more. Please click here and sign in with your PSW user name and password. Or take a free trial.

We appreciate your feedback--please let us know what you think in the comment section below.  

...

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Digital Currencies

BitLicense Part 1 - Can Poorly Thought Out Regulation Drive the US Economy Back into the Dark Ages?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton.

An Op-Ed piece penned by Veritaseum Chief Contracts Officer, Matt Bogosian

This past weekend (despite American Airlines' best efforts), Reggie and I made it to the Second Annual North American Bitcoin Conference in Chicago. While there were some very creative (and very ambitious) ideas on how to try to realize the disruptive Bitcoin protocol, one of the predominant topics of discussion was New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky's proposed Bitcoin regulations (the BitLicense proposal) - percieved by many participants at the event as an apparent ...



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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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