Archive for 2011

Key Events In The Week Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

You mean, aside from the relentless headline barrage? Why yes, in a vivid reminder of what used to happen when actual fact-based events mattered, here is a complete summary of the key events in the coming week.

From Goldman Sachs:

Last week was a week of consolidation after the short-covering rally in the two previous weeks. Range-bound price action dominated across asset classes as investors were being kept busy following the European news, while macro data continued to stabilise at low levels.

In the week ahead, this pattern of stabilising macro data and Eurozone policy meetings will continue. Of course, the focus is on the EU summit on Wednesday, though expectations are not particularly high after weeks of continued negotiations and repeat summits. After the latest meetings this weekend, the details on bank recapitalisation, PSI involvement in the Greek bailout and a leverage scheme for the EFSF remain vague. While Eurozone leaders continue their debate, the week will also deliver a batch of interesting macro data in the Eurozone. Starting with the preliminary Eurozone PMI, we also get German consumer confidence and CPI data. Italy publishes consumer confidence as well and retail sales. Finally, Italy will try to issue EUR5-6bn in bonds on Thursday and Friday, possibly the first serious test of market confidence after the Summit on Wednesday.

The potential for a substantial Dollar sell-off and notable Euro rally is clearly there. Positioning data suggests continued stretched Dollar shorts against pretty much any currency, including the Euro. A quick and convincing solution to the Eurozone crisis could therefore lead to a sharp reduction in the Eurozone risk premium. Having said this, uncertainty remains high and our base case is for “muddling through” rather than a quick and convincing Eurozone solution. Last week’s modest strengthening of the CHF and the JPY may have been a warning sign that currency markets also remain skeptical. It may therefore take a bit longer before the September risk aversion moves can be unwound further.

Beyond the focus on the Eurozone, there are a number of central bank meetings this week (HUF, CAD, NZD, SEK, JPY, INR, ILS, RUB), with only the RBI expected to tighten monetary policy in India, as inflation pressures remain high.

Finally, in the US, third-quarter GDP and durable goods orders will likely be…
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Hi, My Name Is Europe…And This Is What Happens When My 12-Step Program Fails

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Unaccustomed as we are to discussing the American Psychological Association’s 12-Steps to recovery, Credit Suisse have produced a clarifying reduced set that enables us to better judge the road being taken by the heterogeneous set of deaf-dumb-and-blind monkeys currently ‘solving’ the European addiction issues. The critical underpinning, that we have tirelessly brought to the public’s attention, is a fear that the illustrious leadership of our world are not even grappling with the real issues. CS tries to answer the following deeper questions: Are we recognizing the cost that is coming to the core, multiplying as we wait? Are we building credibility and starting to stem this overwhelming tide, or are we pretending, taking the target of our addiction from whatever source we can find it (latest target: the IMF) in the interests of a brief respite?

Policymakers, led by Chancellor Merkel, have started to recognize the existence and nature of the problem. We are irresistibly reminded of the steps towards recovery from addiction; the addiction in question being the par pretense and curing debt with debt.

 

Chancellor Merkel said last week, “The summit won’t be the final point where we regain the confidence of others, but it will be a stepping stone, a marker on the road. All of the sins of omission and commission of the past cannot be undone by waving a magic wand.”

 

This reduced set of ‘steps’ is required for investors to be confident that leadership are moving forward positively as opposed to hiding their stash in a top cupboard for later – or addressing the wrong issues.

Steps 0 to 2 seem most critical for now with Credit Suisse pointing to the following for Step 1:

…an acid test for any discussions, and the reason we expect disappointment, is whether the proposals:

 

1) Seek to cure debt with debt / confuse the markets into seeing solvency created for free / maintain the bezzle / damage credibility; or

 

2) The opposite and provide a visible mechanism for bringing costs of the order of a large fraction of a trillion euro or more to the core.

And Step 2 – acceptance that the market can help – is also very…
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WSJ Economists’ Q3 GDP Forecasts: 2.1 in Q3 and 2.0 in Q4

Courtesy of Doug Short.

One of the big economic announcements in the week ahead will be the Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP, published on Thursday, the 27th, at 8:30 AM EST by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The final number for Q2 GDP was 1.3%. Economists in general are optimistic that Q3 will show an improvement in this broad measure of the economy. According to Briefing.com, the consensus for Q3 is 2.2%, which is a bit more optimistic than Briefing.com’s own estimate of 2.0%.

But what sort of distribution of opinions do we find among the economists? Is the range of opinions wide or narrow? Let’s review the data in the Wall Street Journal’s October survey of economists, which is available in Excel format here. Fifty of the 56 economists solicited for survey responded. The chart below arranges the Q3 GDP forecasts horizontally from low-to-high to give us a clear idea of the distribution of responses and any outliers.

 

 

As the chart suggests, the majority of professionals fall into a fairly narrow range around the 2.1 mean (standard deviation of 0.56).

What do the economists see for Q4? The median and the mean are fractionally lower, but the range is considerably wider with a definite outlier at the bottom and a pair of outliers at the top.

 

 

We’ll find out later in the week how close the WSJ survey Q3 GDP consensus is to the Advance Estimate.

 

 

 

 





Watch Merkozy Cracking Up Following Question If Italy Can Implement Reforms

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Even our non-polyglot readers will have zero problems understanding the response (in French) by Merkozy, when asked during the press conference, whether Italy, which has the second largest debt load in Europe at $2.2 trillion and inches behind German, will succeed in implementing promised ‘reforms.’ The wholesale laughter 19 seconds in the the clip, by not only the entire audience, but by Merkel and Sarkozy pretty much explains what the “next steps” in Europe are as the continent has now given up any pretense it is even trying to keep a serious facade on the upcoming serial defaults… and why 10 Year BTPs will need much more than just the SMP, EFSF and the hand of god to stay above 90 in the coming week.

Source: La Repubblica

As for the question of why Italy provokes laughter, we are not too sure. After all, as Italy goes, so does the world.

As a reminder…

And…The truth about Italy:

  • Morgan Stanley estimates net issuance should total 35 billion euros per year in 2012-2013, less than expect annual coupon payments of around €45 billion per year
  • A total of €157 billion in Italian government paper will fall due by the end of the year. Redemptions will peak in September, when €46 billion of BTP CTX bonds mature
  • Italy has raised €277.4 billion euros in debt so far in 2011, or 65.3% of its full-year target, the Treasury said – suggesting further issuance of €147.4 billion, according to Reuters calculations
  • Italy’s public debt stood at €1,890 billion at the end of April, according to Bank of Italy figures. The public debt figure includes postal savings
  • Italian government bonds and short-term bills totaled €1,583 billion at the end of June according to Italian Treasury data. Their average term was 7.09 years
  • A one percentage point increase in Italy’s debt yields adds about €3 billion euros to interest payments in the first year, and twice that in the second, the Bank of Italy has said
  • Italy forecast in April that 2011 debt servicing costs would total 4.8% of GDP, or about €77 billion
  • The International Monetary Fund estimated in April that 47% of Italian 2010 government debt was held abroad. Morgan Stanley last week estimated foreign holdings at 44%
  • Banks domiciled in Italy held €192


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Weekly Market Commentary: Bulls Maintain Control

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

Markets closed the week at or near their highs, although the ‘bear flags’ on the weekly timeframes were not breached (to the upside).

The Russell 2000 continued its advance towards 760 resistance with technicals improving and a long way from overbought territory. Plenty of room for upside.

The Dow enjoyed a stronger accumulation as technicals finished the week net bullish. However, it was an index which finished on ‘bear flag’ resistance, so despite the bullish technical setup the preference is for a move down Monday.

The S&P was able to go a step better and edged over ‘bear flag’ resistance and put some distance on what had been a resistance around 1,209. Technicals also turned net bullish for the week.

The Nasdaq closed the week slightly lower, but technicals did enough to turn net bullish.

But helping the Nasdaq is the continued improvement in market breadth. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks on Point-n-Figure ‘Buys’ improved to turn technically net bullish.

So while the technical picture is net bullish across indices on the weekly timeframe, the presence of indices at ‘bear flag’ resistance suggests next week will be a downward one – starting Monday.

——

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Europe Goes Full Bailout Retard: EFSF Rescue Capital To Be Officially Double-Counted

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Europe has officially entered the Tropic Thunder zone, where one, forget one thousand , monkeys armed with one simple solar-powered calculator, can come up with a better plan than (JP Morgan-advised) Europe. Because as we pointed out on Thursday, “nothing changes the fact that with €100 billion set aside for bank recaps, a woefully low number and one which will do nothing to assure investors that banks have sufficient capital, there is still not enough cash to “guarantee” all future issuance” – well it appears that Europe finally did the math which led us to conclude that the EFSF is DOA. So what is Europe’s solution? Why double counting aid already pledged of course: “EU bank plan may include aid already pledged to bailout states-sources.” Uh, what? “A drive to lift bank capital across Europe by up to 110 billion euros ($153 billion) is expected to include the roughly 46 billion euros already pledged to Ireland, Greece and Portugal to help their lenders, EU sources told Reuters….Another official confirmed the intention to count money already earmarked for banks in Ireland, Greece and Portugal in any recapitalisation plan. “The problem with shock and awe numbers is that it implies that the money is there,” said one official, reflecting on ministers’ reluctance to set public goals for recapitalisation. “But governments don’t have the money.“… Just as was repeated here over and over and over and over… And yes, that red stuff shooting out of the place where your head was a few second ago, is blood. It is now Europe’s official “plan” (for at least the next 2-3 hours) to use mystical, magical money, which is somehow double-counted to bail out both a bank and a country at the same time…

Ugh:

If over a third of the EU’s bank recapitalisation drive, which investors hoped would inject more than 100 billion euros of fresh money, is accounted for under old bailout programmes markets are likely to react with disappointment.

 

It would effectively shrink the overall package, designed to protect EU banks from the fallout of a Greek default and ease their borrowing difficulties amid a creeping credit freeze, from more than 100 billion euros to something around 60 billion.

 

It would also rest the burden for EU bank recapitalisation in large part on Spain,


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Chaos in the Land of Oz, Part 2

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by ilene.

Elliott and I interview Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner. ~  Ilene

In part 1 of Chaos in the Land of Oz, we established that the Fed is the Wizard and we are living in an economic Land of Oz. In part 2 we discuss whether there is a pathway back to Kansas.

wizard-of-oz

“My people have been wearing green glasses on their eyes for so long that most of them think this really is an Emerald City.” 

L. Frank BaumThe Wonderful Wizard Of Oz

Chaos in the Land of Oz, Part 2

Elliott: In Part 1 of our interview, we agreed that by not allowing the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) banks to fail, the federal government is continuing its environment of corruption and moral hazard. Case in point – the scheme to force taxpayers to insure Bank of America’s worthless debt via the FDIC. 

So, Russ, it will get worse, until TBTF banks get decapitalized?

(Note: “Recapitalize” banks is code for pulling it out of the hide of German (and other) taxpayers and future generations. “Decapitalize” means: do the crime, do the time – take the losses.) 

Russ: Right. Take the investors out, the bondholders, and shrink the sector.  Banking globally should be cut in half. That means the capital backing these institutions needs to go to money heaven. The word for it is “losses.” Right now we have “too big to let lose” because of fear of a bad hair day. 

I was very disappointed last week when they started shilling for more bailouts. The bankers resist the restructuring, and the market rallies on that news. The market is hooked on bailouts and socializing losses. That was the basis of the 2009-2011 bull market. That can’t go on forever. All these money managers are chasing stocks because they expect another bailout. It’s nonsense! 

Elliott: As an investor, I like to look for value. But it’s so hard to find real value when so much has been gimmicked by the Fed. 

Russ: That’s my view entirely. 

Ilene: What do you expect the outcome will be? 

Russ: I’m highly cynical. We’re like deer in the headlights, but we have to protect ourselves from the pump-and-dumps and avoid the herd mentality of jumping on
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Summarizing The Sheer Chaos In Europe: 9 Meetings In 5 Days

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

For over a year, our premise #1 in interpreting the newsflow out of Europe has been that in the absence of actual practical ideas, and the continent’s glaring inability to do simple math, the only option left to bEURaucrats has been to literally baffle people with so much endless bullshit that the general audience would be simply stunned by the possibility of an alternative that the union’s leaders were all talk and absolutely no action, let alone analysis. As of today, we now know that that is precisely the case: for over a year Europe has been mouthing off hollow rhetoric in hopes that the market would just leave it alone, and that promises of promises and plans of plans would be sufficient. That plan (pardon the pun) has now failed. And so behind the scenes chaos turns into fully public panic. As the FT’s Brussels blog summarizes, the only game left in town for Europe now is to push off D-Day, but not to some indefinite point in the future, like the US, but to tomorrow, and tomorrow and tomorrow, to channel the bard here. And nothing confirms better that it is all over for Europe, than the following summation of the terror and utter cluelessness gripping Europe, than the following sentence from the FT: “Just to recap, by Wednesday night there will have been nine meetings of ministers or national leaders in five days.

Specifically:

  • Friday afternoon: Eurozone finance ministers
  • Saturday: EU finance ministers
  • Saturday: EU foreign ministers (general affairs council)
  • Sunday morning: EU national leaders
  • Sunday afternoon: Eurozone national leaders
  • Wednesday: EU finance ministers
  • Wednesday (tbc): Eurozone finance ministers
  • Wednesday: EU national leaders
  • Wednesday: Eurozone leaders

This excludes some pretty major conferences, such as the impromptu pow-wow for Jean-Claude Trichet’s retirement in Frankfurt last Wednesday, and a bilateral summit between Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy on Saturday.

Simply said, Europe has telegraphed that it has failed to even plan for a plan.

But for those curious about the largely irrelevant details, here they are again from the FT:

After a two hour overrun, the meeting of the EU 27 has broken up here in Brussels, to be followed by a pow-wow of


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EURUSD Opens Lower

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Hardly the apocalypse scenario that the G20 and Nicholas Sarkozy predicted, but certainly not a ringing endorsement of European cohesion and stability. If this melts up in the Sunday futures session, we fully expect it to be due to ongoing FX repatriation by French banks.

Drifting lower:





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Futures Flat, Gold Rises On Weaker Dollar As Traders Focus On OPEC, Payrolls

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After yesterday's US and UK market holidays which resulted in a session of unchanged global stocks, US futures are largely where they left off Friday, up fractionally, and just under 2,100. Bonds fell as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates amid signs inflation is picking up. Oil headed for its longest run of monthly gains in five years, while stocks declined in Europe.

Treasuries retreated in the first full day of trading since Yellen said late Friday that the improving economy meant a rate increase would probably be in or...



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ValueWalk

COMEX Gold Futures Market - INFOGRAPHIC

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Infographic: COMEX Gold Futures Market

his COMEX Gold Futures Market infographic guides you through the largest gold futures market in the world, COMEX.

Did you for example know that only 1 in 2500 contracts on COMEX goes to physical delivery whereas the other 2499 contracts are cash-settled? This corresponds to a delivery percentage of 0.04% of all gold contracts.

The US government claims to hold a fair bit of gold in reserves but how much is it really holding?

In this infographic you will learn more about the COMEX gold futures market considering

  • COMEX Trading Volumes
  • Fractionally Reserved Futures Trading
  • Cash-settlement of COMEX Gold Futures Contracts
  • Eligible and Registered Gold on COMEX
  • US Treasury Gold Reserves
  • Locat...


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Phil's Favorites

Merkel Ready to Kiss and Make Up with Putin?

Courtesy of Mish.

German chancellor Angela Merkel wants to stand tough against Russia, but Austria, France, Italy, Hungary, Greece, and Portugal have had enough of sanctions that have backfired.

Talking tough may be Merkel’s official stance but circumstances have changed. She is no longer calling all the shots.

Step-by-Step Rapprochement

Please consider Step-by-Step Rapprochement: Germany Considers Easing of Russia Sanctions.

As expected, G-7 leaders reiterated their hardline approach to Moscow in the Japan summit’s closing statement. Chancellor Angela Merkel complained last Thursday that there still isn’t a stable ce...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Set for Longest Run of Gains in 5 Years Before OPEC Meeting (Bloomberg)

Oil is set for the longest run of monthly gains in five years as output disruptions from Nigeria to Canada reduce supply before OPEC meets Thursday in Vienna to discuss production policy.

Every Stock Was a Buy to This Analyst Team, Then Shares Tanked (Bloomberg)

Companies probably love getting attention from analysts at Emperor Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. Investors who followed their advice for the past year, not so much. ...



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Chart School

Respectable Finish To Week

Courtesy of Declan.

Semiconductors were the star of the week.  The index cleared Match/April congestion and posted six consecutive winning days in a row. Technicals are all in the green and the index is above all key moving averages. Weakness will be a buying opportunity; a test of the 50-day MA would be a good start.


The Russell 2000 managed to regain the prior rising channel. Technicals are positive although it still has to make up relative ground against the Nasdaq. The index hasn't yet cracked new highs but one more days gain may be en...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Mining Stocks- Most dangerous time to own them in years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The rally in mining stocks since the first of the year has been very impressive.

The rally has taken Gold Miners ETF GDX up to test the 23% retracement of the collapse over the past 5-years. At the same time it is hitting the 23% level, two other resistance lines are being put to a test, with momentum at the highest levels in the past 5-years.

Joe Friday Just The Facts...



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Insider Scoop

Graham Media Group To Buy WCWJ, CW affiliate In Jacksonville, NBC Affiliate in Roanoke

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Graham Media Group, Inc., a Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC) subsidiary, said it struck a deal with Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and Media General, Inc. to purchase WCWJ, a CW affiliate television station in Jacksonville, Florida and WSLS, an NBC affiliate television station in Roanoke, Virginia for $60 million in cash and the assumption of certain liabilities.

The agreement to acquire Nextar Broadcasting included pension obligations. Graham Media Group, Inc. would continue to operate both stations under their current network affiliations.

Graham Media said the acquisition is subject to approval by the FCC, other regulatory appr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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