Archive for January, 2012

ETFs Quiet Before The Storm (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

ETFs Quiet Before The Storm (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM)ETFs were quiet today as investors readied themselves for Econ Reports, Facebook IPO, and European woes tomorrow

Major markets and index ETFs were mixed today as investors anticipate tomorrow’s Econ Reports, a possible Facebook IPO, and a possible European solution.  The S&P 500 decreased .05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .16%, the NASDAQ composite increased .07%, and the Russell 2000 Index decreased .06%.  Index ETFs followed suite as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) declined .13%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) decreased .15%, the PowerShares QQQ Series 1 Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) increased .13%, and the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM) decreased .04%.  Quiet before the storm…

Europe, of course, remains the largest wild card as policy makers struggle to find a sovereign debt solution and Greece debt talks continue to stall.  Of course, the only real way to fix the debt dilemma is to, well, to pay off all of the debt, except that paying off debt requires heavy revenue increases and heavy spending decreases, both of which would cripple an economy on the verge of (some would argue an economy already in) a recession.  Quiet before the storm…

Tomorrow also brings the Facebook IPO announcement, which could possibly send all markets skyward for a minute or two.  Facebook will file for a $5 billion IPO, which is the largest ever IPO from the Silicon Valley.  As Facebook is valued at approximately $80 billion, watch out for tech ETFs, especially the Q’s, as tomorrow will be a big day for the tech sector.  Quiet before the storm…

And lastly, tomorrow brings us a slew of economic report cards, including the ADP unemployment report, ISM report, construction spending report, and motor vehicle sales report, any of which would rock the boat on a normal day.  Quiet before the storm…

Commodities ETFs and VIX ETFs were flat today, while US Dollar ETFs and Treasury Bond ETFs were up slightly, likely because the Fed seems more stable than the European Central Bank.  Keep in mind that Iran could at any moment attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or shut off  European oil supplies, which would create a whole different kind of chaos for us all.  Quiet before the storm…

Bottom Line:
continue reading





Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on February 29, 2012

The S&P 500 closed January with a gain of 4.36% from the December close. All three index signals indicated an invested position. See the specifics here.

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I’ve also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy.

Backtesting Moving Averages

Monthly Close Signals Over the past few years I’ve used Excel to track the performance of various moving-average timing strategies. But now I use the backtesting tools available on the ETFReplay.com website. Anyone who is interested in market timing with ETFs should have a look at this website. Here are the two tools I most frequently use:

Background on Moving Averages

Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the precise top or back in at the very bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), such as we’ve experienced this summer.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have insured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight variant on the simple moving average. This version mathematically increases the weighting of newer data in the 10-month sequence. Since 1995 it has produced fewer whipsaws than the equivalent simple moving average, although it was a month slower to signal a sell after these two market tops.

A look back at the 10- and 12-month moving averages in the Dow…
continue reading





CBO REPORT – OMG!

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is out with its annual report. It’s a blockbuster. This 165 page monster is filled with dozens of charts, graphs and detailed projections. It will be talked about for weeks. The report provides a dismal outlook for the economy. There is one data point I'd like to focus on.

Here is the CBO forecast for real GDP for 2012 and 2013:

 

 

 

The 1.1% Real GDP number for 2013 surprised me. The CBO’s expectations are way under those of both the “Blue Chip” economists and the Federal Reserve:

What does it mean if the economy is going to slow, as CBO now thinks? Some consequences:

 
.
.

 

The CBO now forecasts Social Security to run into trouble in just a few years. This is a very substantial change in the outlook for SS. Changed fortunes make it certain that America’s favorite entitlement program will be on the table for a significant re-vamp.

The CBO has answered two critical question:

1) In what year does SS first goes into deficit (including interest)?

2) What is the size of the SS Trust Fund when #1 has been achieved?

Key data is here:

 

 

Using this information, we can estimate the Trust Funds (TF) balances over time, and compare them to what SS forecast in its report to Congress ten-months ago:

 
SSTF's "Intermediate" (Base) case:

 

The bottom line is that the SSTF is going to top out three years ahead of “schedule” and be $800B shy of what it was “supposed” to be.

I think the CBO report has created a big headache for a good number of folks in D.C. Most of them are running for office this year. They certainly won't be able to wave the CBO report as a measure of how well they are doing.

 




Bill Dudley’s Financial Holdings Disclosed At Time Of AIG Bailout

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Earlier today, the New York Fed was kind enough to voluntarily disclose the finacial holdings and assets of one former Goldman Sachs employee, and current FRBNY president Bill Dudley. Bill Dudley is also known as the gentleman to have received, when he was stil head of the PPT, aka the Fed’s Open Markets Group, a waiver signed by one Tim Geithner on September 19, 2008, allowing him to keep not only his investment in AIG, which was “de minimis” at $1,200, but also in General Electric, which was not de minimis at $106,830. And while his modest holdings of AIG likely did not impact Dudley’s protocol of bailing out the failed insurer, his interest in GE, and thus its then fully held subsidiary NBC Universal, parent of such comedy channels as CNBC, could potentially have been a source of conflict. Which is why the Fed has disclosed the full holdings of Dudley as of the 2008 year, in which we find that the bulk of Dudley’s net worth was held by JPMorgan Chase Deferred Income Benefit Award (over $1MM) and JPM Chase Deferred Compensation ($500,001-$1,000,000). Was Mr. Dudley also completely conflict free vis-a-vis the bulk of his holdings, and their custodian, and did the New York’s Fed largesse to bail out JPM among many others, have anything to do with this particular heretofore unknown detail? Of course not. After all, Jon Corzine is a free man. In other news, anyone who needs urgent access to the discount window or a $1 trillion overnight loan at 0.001% interest, should just call the Fed’s 24/7 hotline: 877-52-FRBNY.

This is how the Fed generously classified its release:

In order to promote transparency and in response to media interest, the
Federal Reserve Banks are today making available the financial
disclosure forms and related documents filed by their current presidents
with Federal Reserve Bank ethics officers. 

Full Dudley financial disclosure:

 

 

Full text of Waiver granted to Bill Dudley, and signed by Tim Geithner:

 

 

And as a reference, the New York Fed’s code of conduct:

 





Goldilocks Is Back – China PMI Rises To 50.5, Modest Beat Of Expectations, Shy Of Whisper Number

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

China’s goal-seeked economy performed admirably in January, and its Manufacturing PMI came absolutely golidlocks at 50.5, an increase from 50.3, previously, just modestly beating Wall Street expectations of a slight contraction of 40.6, yet a less than earlier whisper numbers which put it at 52. As such, thereis absolutely no indication if the PBoC will further tighten or ease in the next month, just as the PBoC likes it, because while many have been demanding easing in the last several weeks, and especially the housing market, the reality is that hot pockets of inflation still remain. Furthermore, the last thing China needs is to proceed with full on easing just as Bernanke goes ahead and launches QE x which will export more hot money, and thus inflation, to China than anywhere else, with the possible exception of gold.

And here are some observations from Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough:

  • Headline PMI remained above 50 for two consecutive months; another 50-plus reading in Feb. would be very positive sign,
  • Underlying data still weak with new export orders falling to 46.9 from 48.6, while new orders rose to 50.4
  • Typically if this were true bottom, all forward-looking sub-components would rise above 50 in a month prior or the same     month as headline index 
  • Building domestic pressure coupled with foreign risks should  continue to weigh on the Chinese economy, including the PMI going forward, forcing policy makers to cut RRR and eventually policy rates once they are convinced threat of inflation has been squelched

PMI charted:





First Results Are In – Live Tracker Of Florida GOP Primary

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The first numbers in the Florida GOP Primary have started trickling in with the polls still open, and while as already noted DieBold did ‘leak’ the final results of the election previously, those who either care what the outcome of tonight’s event is, or are masochists, or both, are welcome to follow the latest developments below.

CNN Live:

and Live maps:





Benzinga’s M&A Chatter for Tuesday January 31, 2012

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Tuesday January 31, 2012:

Multiband Announces Expiration of Letter of Intent to Acquire WPCS International

The Expired Offer:
Multiband Corporation (NASDAQ: MBND) announced Tuesday that it will allow a Letter of Intent for the remaining portion of an acquisition with WPCS International (NASDAQ: WPCS) to expire effective February 1, 2012 as the Company believes it is not viable to conclude the transaction as originally intended given current market valuations. This will result in Multiband losing exclusivity to negotiate a purchase of the remaining business operations of WPCS. The original agreement included a provision that during the exclusivity timeframe, Multiband would not sell any of the 709,271 common shares of WPCS International it currently owned. This restriction will now be lifted as well. The terms are consistent with those detailed in the parties’ original June 2011 Letter of Intent.

WPCS International closed at $1.69 Tuesday, a loss of 0.59% for the day on 4.75 times the average daily volume.

Global NuTech Acquires Texas Gulf Oil and Gas

The Deal:
Global NuTech (BOCL) announced Tuesday that the company has acquired 100% of the stock of Houston, Texas based Texas Gulf Oil & Gas. The acquisition from private equity firm Corporate Strategies Merchant Bankers includes individual oilfield producing assets and options throughout the Austin Chalk and near the Eagle Ford shale play in Texas. These assets include leases, options and working interests in 19 oil wells throughout the area and additional options to invest in wells to be drilled or re-entered in three leases identified as the Tilmon, Lay, and Rodenberg. David Mathews, CEO of Global NuTech, said, “Texas Gulf Oil & Gas provides us a platform to expand vertically in the energy markets, specifically in energy services, exploration and production. The President of Texas Gulf, Damon Wagley, brings many years of experience and a qualified team to expand the company’s service and exploration business. The Wagley family first entered the oil and gas business in 1952, and brings a wealth of knowledge, experience and relationships that extend from central Texas to the North Sea. We are quite fortunate to have Damon Wagley’s oil field experience and leadership to build Texas Gulf…
continue reading





Did God Hack Goldman Sachs?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It is oddly appropriate that when a reader opens the client portal of Goldman Sachs, also known as the bank that does God’s work, in order to pull Jan Hatzius’ take on today’s economic data assortment, one would encounter the following amusingly intentional easter egg…

As a reminder Psalm 138:

1 A Psalm of David. I give thee thanks, O LORD, with my whole heart; before the gods I sing thy praise; 2 I bow down toward thy holy temple and give thanks to thy name for thy steadfast love and thy faithfulness; for thou hast exalted above everything thy name and thy word. 3 On the day I called, thou didst answer me, my strength of soul thou didst increase. 4 All the kings of the earth shall praise thee, O LORD, for they have heard the words of thy mouth; 5 and they shall sing of the ways of the LORD, for great is the glory of the LORD. 6 For though the LORD is high, he regards the lowly; but the haughty he knows from afar. 7 Though I walk in the midst of trouble, thou dost preserve my life; thou dost stretch out thy hand against the wrath of my enemies, and thy right hand delivers me. 8 The LORD will fulfil his purpose for me; thy steadfast love, O LORD, endures for ever. Do not forsake the work of thy hands.

All joking aside, it appears out friends at 200 West have a bit of a mole infestation on their hands…





S&P 500 Snapshot: Fourth Day Down, But a Great January

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 popped at the open, but then fell to a midday low, off about half a percent, before making a steady comeback. The closing hour played touch-and-go with break even, with the finally tally being a fractional loss of 0.05% for the day. That’s the fourth consecutive finish in the red. But the month of January saw a gain of 4.36%. To put that into context, that’s the 11th best January since the inception of the S&P 500, in March 1957. The index is 3.76% below its interim high at the end of April 2011.

From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 94.0% above the March 2009 closing low and 16.1% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

 

 

 

 

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.

 

 

 

 





Digimarc Resolves License Dispute with Verance

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Digimarc Corporation (NASDAQ: DMRC) announced today resolution of all disputes with Verance Corporation regarding existing patent and breach of contract claims. Digimarc and Verance will file a joint motion to dismiss Digimarc’s breach of contract claim against Verance related to Verance’s alleged failure to make payments under a license agreement entered into between Digimarc and Verance in August 2002. They also will file a joint motion to dismiss Verance’s appeal in its action for declaratory judgment alleging invalidity and non-infringement of twenty-two Digimarc patents.

In connection with the resolution of these matters, Digimarc and Verance entered into a three year renewal and extension license agreement, effective October 1, 2011, pursuant to which Verance paid Digimarc $8 million for amounts due to Digimarc through September 30, 2011. The agreement further provides that Verance will continue to pay royalties quarterly to Digimarc. Upon completion of the initial three year term, Verance may renew the agreement for up to nine additional one year periods. The renewal and extension license agreement replaces the August 2002 license agreement between the parties.


For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, Value Investor, and Stocks Under $5.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Possible Silver U-Turn Report, 7 Feb, 2016

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Monetary Metals.

Wow, did the dollar move down this week! It dropped more than it has in quite a while. It fell 1.3mg gold, or 0.1g silver.

Gold and silver bugs of course are excited, as they look at it as the prices of the metals going up $55 and 72 cents respectively. The collapse of what most think of as money—including especially said gold and silver bugs—is great fun and profitable. At least if you’re short the dollar.

By the way, when we say the dollar fell we do not mean in terms of its derivatives such as euro, pound, yuan, and so on. We’re well aware that the dollar index fell from 99.6 to 97. The euro and other currencies are no more suitable for measuring the dollar, than, well the dollar is to me...



more from Tyler

Chart School

Bears Break Deadlock

Courtesy of Declan.

A quick post before the Superbowl begins. Friday's action was very disappointing if you were in the bullish camp; poor jobs data contributing to the malaise. However, investors can view this as another buying opportunity, with the Nasdaq clocking the 10% percentile of historic weak prices dating back to 1971, and the Russell 2000 making fast work of a push back to 958. Again, it's not about investing everything at once, but perhaps using the coming year(?) to build long term positions. I would be happier to see a 40-60% trim from highs - keep an eye on my bottom watch table, but this is the kind of action which helps reset the bulls count.

The S&P registered a clear break of rising trend. Volume was lighter, so it wasn't necessarily a panic sell. And while it could be viewed as a breakown, the glass half full crew would see this as a drop back...

more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Phil's Favorites

What The Charts Say: "Now Is The Time To Worry"

Courtesy of Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice

RALLY FAILS, ALERTS RISE

Last week, I discussed the boost the market received as the BOJ made an unexpected move into negative interest rate territory combined with end of the month buying by portfolio managers. I wrote:

“However, the announcement by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to implement negative interest rates in a desperate last attempt to boost economic growth in Japan was only the catalyst that ignited the bulls. The “fuel” for the buying came from the end of the month portfolio buying by fund managers.”

But more importantly, was the push higher by stocks that I have been discussing with you over the last couple of weeks. ...



more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Wall Street has finally learned an important lesson about Tesla (Business Insider)

The past month has been horrific for Tesla's shareholders.

After hitting $240 on the last day of 2015, shares have lost one-third of their value. Something close to $10 billion in market cap has been erased.

The World's Biggest Wealth Fund Is Unhappy With Volkswagen's Leadership (Bloomberg)

The world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund criticized...



more from Paul

Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P could reach 1,600 if this gives way, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

S&P 500 tops in 2000 and 2007 took place 91 one months apart. Did another top take place 91 months after the 2007 top. So far it looks very possible.

If you double that time frame, you get 182 months. What is the odds that the NDX 100 topped 182 months after the 2000 high, at the SAME price it hit in 2000?

We applied monthly momentum to the charts above, reflecting that momentum for the S&P is back at 2000 and 2007 highs and turning lower and the momentum for the NDX is back at 2000 levels.

...

more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

 

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

Courtesy of ValueWalk, by  

Throughout the past 30 days of wild volatility, here’s what I didn’t do.

Panic. Worry. Sell.

In fact, the best I did was add to a couple of positions yesterday. The world was already in an uncertain state for the past 3+ years. It’s just that with the market rising, we pushed the issue to the back of our  mind and ignored it.

If you read Howard Marks latest memo, ...



more from ValueWalk

Insider Scoop

Tyson Foods' Stock Ticks Higher Following Q1 Print

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related TSN 7 Stocks You Should Be Watching Today Earnings Scheduled For February 5, 2016 Tyson Foods beats by $0.26, misses on revenue (Seeking Alpha)

Shares of Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) were trading higher by more nearly 4 percent early Friday morning after the company reported its ...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 1st, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Digital Currencies

2016 Theme #3: The Rise Of Independent (Non-State) Crypto-Currencies

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at Of Two Minds

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the rise of non-state, non-central-bank-issued crypto-currencies.

We all know money is created and distributed by governments and central banks. The reason is simple: control the money and you control everything.

The invention of the blockchain and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have opened the door to non-state, non-central-bank currencies--money that is global and independent of any state or central bank, or indeed, any bank, as crypto-currencies are structurally peer-to-peer, meaning they don't require a bank to function: people can exchange crypto-currencies to pay for goods and services without a bank acting as a clearinghouse for all these transactions.

This doesn't just open t...



more from Bitcoin

Sabrient

Sector Detector: New Year brings new hope after bulls lose traction to close 2015

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Chart via Finviz

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last year, the S&P 500 large caps closed 2015 essentially flat on a total return basis, while the NASDAQ 100 showed a little better performance at +8.3% and the Russell 2000 small caps fell -5.9%. Overall, stocks disappointed even in the face of modest expectations, especially the small caps as market leadership was mostly limited to a handful of large and mega-cap darlings.

Notably, the full year chart for the S&P 500 looks very much like 2011. It got off to a good start, drifted sideways for...



more from Sabrient

Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



more from Promotions

Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



more from Pharmboy

Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



more from M.T.M.

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>