Archive for 2012

Swing trading portfolio – week of February 13th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





Guest Post: Charting The Federal Reserve’s Assets – 1915-2012

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Thomas Gresham of Gersham’s Law,

Here we present a history of the Fed in charts. As you’ll surely glean from the below — the Fed has degenerated from a by and large passive institution (dealing only in high-quality self-liquidating commercial paper and gold) to an active pursuant of junk, an enabler of wars, a ‘benevolent’ combatant of the depressions of its own creation, a central planner of employment & prices and of course a forgiving friend to inconvenient market follies.

The Fed’s Assets from 1915 to 2012:

1915 to 1925

1925 to 1935

1935 to 1945

1945 to 1955

1955 to 1965

1965 to 1975

1975 to 1985

1985 to 1995

1995 to 2005

2005 to 2012





“See Something Say Something” Campaign Could Allow People to Label ANY AMERICAN a Suspected “Terrorist” … Just Like in NaziTown

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

LIST OF ACTIONS OR BELIEFS WHICH MAY GET YOU LABELED A TERRORIST GROWS DAILY

 

 

Every American could – literally – be labeled a suspected terrorist under current governmental criteria.

Specifically, the following actions may get a U.S. citizen labeled as a suspected terrorist today:

Holding the following beliefs may also be considered grounds for suspected terrorism:


continue reading






Weekly Market Commentary: First (Mild) Weaker Weekly Close For 2012

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

It had to happen at some point, but last week was the first of 2012 to see markets close lower – at least for the Russell 2000.  Large Caps and Tech finished the week flat, but in the case of Nasdaq breadth, it was another week of gains.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents added another couple of points – but has room to travel to resistance.

While the Summation Index is very close to all-time highs (and is doing a very good impression of the rally from the March 2009 low).

These gains in breadth were enough to keep the Nasdaq flat on the week (on lower volume)

Compared to the 2% loss in the Russell 2000

But there was also a flat close for the S&P on the week, also on light volume.

Given the length of the rally, last week’s losses on light volume were welcome. So a few more weeks like last will nicely set up the next phase of the rally.  But with market breadth close too – if not already – at a point where an extended period of downside is favoured, discretion may be the better side of valor.

In this enviornment, stock breakouts are numerous – but most tend to be false moves.

—--

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Athens By Night

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Troika went to bailout Europe’s banks (for the nth time) and all we got was this postcard of Athens by night…

courtesy of Aris





Greek Parliament Passes Latest Austerity Vote

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Greek parliament just passed the latest proposed austerity plan with a majority voting Yes. Judging by the reaction of the EURUSD, which experienced a modest 40 pip short covering squeeze in the last few minutes, one would imagine that today’s Greek vote outcome is surprising. It isn’t: after all, all Greece has done is promise to do something it won’t do in hope it can get another bailout package, this time amounting to €210 billion (of which its people will pocket a de minimis 19%). As we said earlier: “The only real questions are i) what the Greek population may do in response to this latest selling out of a population “led” by an unelected banker, which if history is any precedent, the answer is not much, and ii) how Germany will subvert this latest event, and put the bail [sic] back in Greece’s court once again.” Sure enough, to paraphrase what we said before, the question now is what the popular Greek response will be having learned its politicians sold it out yet again, which will likely be nothing much, as it is 1 am local time, and as everyone knows revolutions in heavily socialist countries only start between 9 am and 5 pm, with a 2 hour break for siesta. More importantly, keep a close eye on headlines out of Germany. That is all that matters now.





Average Gasoline Price Jumps To Highest In 5 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Stocks are not the only thing enjoying the ECB’s $800 billion balance sheet expansion (and just announced additional Bank of England Quantiative Easing) over the past 6 months. Lately a new and unwelcome visitor has also figured out the Euroean Central Bank’s sneaky motives. No, not Germany, they still are hopelessly confused and still believe the ECB is not “printing” money. Nor gold. It did long ago, just as Roubini was calling for an imminent crash following the 200 DMA breach – it is headed over $2000 in short order.  No, this time it is that last entrant to any reliqufication party, who just happens to be the guaranteed party-pooper: gasoline.

As the weekly Lundberg survey shows, in the week ended February  10, gas rose by 11.57 cents to $3.5101, the highest since September. The latest price is also 12% higher compared to a year earlier. What is troubling is that as the attached chart shows, the trend of gradual gas price declines has now firmly ended, having touched a low of $3.20,  and has been replaced by a steady climb over the past 2 months. In other words, the US consumer’s retail spending has been far weaker than expected in November and December, and soon to be discovered in January, primarily due to gas purchases, which have already plunged as discussed recently, once again taking up a substantial portion of the discretionary spending basket (on credit at that). And what is worse, is that as the LTRO #2 is about to add another several hundred billion to the ECB’s balance sheet, which will ineivtably be followed by more Fed printing, the Gasoline trendline has only one way to go. Expect the recent highs of $4.00/gallon to be taken out shortly, and to lead to yet another GDP roll over once again. Alas, none of this will be a consolation to European readers, who a few days ago just saw gas hit all time highs.

Finally, we don’t have to remind our regulars, that as David Rosenberg has been warning, the biggest “benefit” to the economy in H2 2011 was the consistently declining gas price. Now that that is over, and prices are once again increasing, one can kiss that particular one-time stimulus to the economy goodbye.…
continue reading





Why Are We Fighting On the Same Side with Al Qaeda?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

Reuters notes that the leader of Al Qaeda – Ayman al-Zawahri – is backing the Syrian rebels, and asking his followers to fight the Syrian government.

Some of the main Al Qaeda fighters who overthrew Gadaffi – and now appear to be in control of Libya – are already helping the Syrian rebels.

This is curious, given that the U.S. is considering military options for ousting the Syrian government, American allies Britain and Qatar allegedly already have foreign troops inside Syria, and the U.S. has been planning regime change in Syria for over 50 years.

Mainstream reports also state that the U.S. and its allies are backing Iranian terrorists.

I thought Al Qaeda was America’s mortal enemy. Why are we backing terrorists?





Note: We Added a Facebook “Like” Button at End of Posts…

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

…because apparently I am the last person in the developed world under age 50 who does not use Facebook.  But if you do… feel free to “like” any story of interest so your facebook apostles can read too. :)

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog





 
 
 

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Seeing Your Blind Spots

 

Seeing Your Blind Spots

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“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool.”

-Richard Feynman

Anybody who has ever tried to beat the market knows that understanding psychology is just as important as understanding a business. You can know a company’s return on equity to the third decimal and what management likes to do with excess capital, but if you don’t understand prospect theory or confirmation bias, you’re missing the most important elements of what it takes to be a successful investor...



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Zero Hedge

OPEC Pops The Question - Will Russia Say "I Do"?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Herman Wang via Platt's "The Barrel" blog,

OPEC is drafting an agreement to tie Russia into a so-called “super group” of oil producers.

Details on the proposal are vague and the Kremlin’s willingness to consider such a betrothal is uncertain, despite some positive vibes between Russia and OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia at the moment.

In tryi...



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ValueWalk

Warren Buffett's Advice for Small Business 2018

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Master Investor gives top tips for budding entrepreneurs, startups, and small businesses.

]]> Get The Full Warren Buffett Series in PDF

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The post Warren Buffett’s Advice for Small Business 2018 appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Feb 18, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

BOO YAH! Now that’s more like it!  Your regularly scheduled non stop up market returned this past week with a “5 for 5” week (all 5 days up).  Three of those days were >1% so it was a return of the bulls.  That said to return to the “Trump market” we need to get back to almost no volatility and incremental up days of 0.3% or so 80% of the time.   We noted in last week’s recap the NYSE McClellan Oscillator was still VERY oversold so a “snapback rally” was still on the docket.  That was quite a snapback rally!  So the “easy part” of the bounce just happened – now we will see if we are going to return to a more volatile future or go right back to the sleepy market that tacks on a little 4 out of 5 ...



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Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Nears $11,000, Here's A History Of Its Biggest Ups And Downs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The cryptocurrency rebound off Feb 5th's bloodbath lows (below $6,000 for Bitcoin) has been impressive, as a 'mysterious' massive buyer 'bought the dip' and momentum took care of the rest.

With Bitcoin now nearing $11,000 (almost a double off the lows), ...



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Insider Scoop

Walmart, Target Are Susquehanna's Top Picks Ahead Of Retail Earnings Season

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WMT Upcoming Earnings: Hurricane Effects Still Trickling Through For Home Depot? Did Walmart Meet It...

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Biotech

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

In this March 18, 2011 photo, Cassidy Hempel waved at hospital staff as she was being treated for a rare disorder. Her mother Chris, left, fought to gain permission for an experimental drug. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Morten Wendelbo, Texas A&M University and Timothy Callaghan, ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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