Archive for 2012

Swing trading portfolio – week of February 13th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





Guest Post: Charting The Federal Reserve’s Assets – 1915-2012

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Thomas Gresham of Gersham’s Law,

Here we present a history of the Fed in charts. As you’ll surely glean from the below — the Fed has degenerated from a by and large passive institution (dealing only in high-quality self-liquidating commercial paper and gold) to an active pursuant of junk, an enabler of wars, a ‘benevolent’ combatant of the depressions of its own creation, a central planner of employment & prices and of course a forgiving friend to inconvenient market follies.

The Fed’s Assets from 1915 to 2012:

1915 to 1925

1925 to 1935

1935 to 1945

1945 to 1955

1955 to 1965

1965 to 1975

1975 to 1985

1985 to 1995

1995 to 2005

2005 to 2012





“See Something Say Something” Campaign Could Allow People to Label ANY AMERICAN a Suspected “Terrorist” … Just Like in NaziTown

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

LIST OF ACTIONS OR BELIEFS WHICH MAY GET YOU LABELED A TERRORIST GROWS DAILY

 

 

Every American could – literally – be labeled a suspected terrorist under current governmental criteria.

Specifically, the following actions may get a U.S. citizen labeled as a suspected terrorist today:

Holding the following beliefs may also be considered grounds for suspected terrorism:


continue reading






Weekly Market Commentary: First (Mild) Weaker Weekly Close For 2012

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

It had to happen at some point, but last week was the first of 2012 to see markets close lower – at least for the Russell 2000.  Large Caps and Tech finished the week flat, but in the case of Nasdaq breadth, it was another week of gains.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents added another couple of points – but has room to travel to resistance.

While the Summation Index is very close to all-time highs (and is doing a very good impression of the rally from the March 2009 low).

These gains in breadth were enough to keep the Nasdaq flat on the week (on lower volume)

Compared to the 2% loss in the Russell 2000

But there was also a flat close for the S&P on the week, also on light volume.

Given the length of the rally, last week’s losses on light volume were welcome. So a few more weeks like last will nicely set up the next phase of the rally.  But with market breadth close too – if not already – at a point where an extended period of downside is favoured, discretion may be the better side of valor.

In this enviornment, stock breakouts are numerous – but most tend to be false moves.

—--

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements.

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Athens By Night

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Troika went to bailout Europe’s banks (for the nth time) and all we got was this postcard of Athens by night…

courtesy of Aris





Greek Parliament Passes Latest Austerity Vote

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Greek parliament just passed the latest proposed austerity plan with a majority voting Yes. Judging by the reaction of the EURUSD, which experienced a modest 40 pip short covering squeeze in the last few minutes, one would imagine that today’s Greek vote outcome is surprising. It isn’t: after all, all Greece has done is promise to do something it won’t do in hope it can get another bailout package, this time amounting to €210 billion (of which its people will pocket a de minimis 19%). As we said earlier: “The only real questions are i) what the Greek population may do in response to this latest selling out of a population “led” by an unelected banker, which if history is any precedent, the answer is not much, and ii) how Germany will subvert this latest event, and put the bail [sic] back in Greece’s court once again.” Sure enough, to paraphrase what we said before, the question now is what the popular Greek response will be having learned its politicians sold it out yet again, which will likely be nothing much, as it is 1 am local time, and as everyone knows revolutions in heavily socialist countries only start between 9 am and 5 pm, with a 2 hour break for siesta. More importantly, keep a close eye on headlines out of Germany. That is all that matters now.





Average Gasoline Price Jumps To Highest In 5 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Stocks are not the only thing enjoying the ECB’s $800 billion balance sheet expansion (and just announced additional Bank of England Quantiative Easing) over the past 6 months. Lately a new and unwelcome visitor has also figured out the Euroean Central Bank’s sneaky motives. No, not Germany, they still are hopelessly confused and still believe the ECB is not “printing” money. Nor gold. It did long ago, just as Roubini was calling for an imminent crash following the 200 DMA breach – it is headed over $2000 in short order.  No, this time it is that last entrant to any reliqufication party, who just happens to be the guaranteed party-pooper: gasoline.

As the weekly Lundberg survey shows, in the week ended February  10, gas rose by 11.57 cents to $3.5101, the highest since September. The latest price is also 12% higher compared to a year earlier. What is troubling is that as the attached chart shows, the trend of gradual gas price declines has now firmly ended, having touched a low of $3.20,  and has been replaced by a steady climb over the past 2 months. In other words, the US consumer’s retail spending has been far weaker than expected in November and December, and soon to be discovered in January, primarily due to gas purchases, which have already plunged as discussed recently, once again taking up a substantial portion of the discretionary spending basket (on credit at that). And what is worse, is that as the LTRO #2 is about to add another several hundred billion to the ECB’s balance sheet, which will ineivtably be followed by more Fed printing, the Gasoline trendline has only one way to go. Expect the recent highs of $4.00/gallon to be taken out shortly, and to lead to yet another GDP roll over once again. Alas, none of this will be a consolation to European readers, who a few days ago just saw gas hit all time highs.

Finally, we don’t have to remind our regulars, that as David Rosenberg has been warning, the biggest “benefit” to the economy in H2 2011 was the consistently declining gas price. Now that that is over, and prices are once again increasing, one can kiss that particular one-time stimulus to the economy goodbye.…
continue reading





Why Are We Fighting On the Same Side with Al Qaeda?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

Reuters notes that the leader of Al Qaeda – Ayman al-Zawahri – is backing the Syrian rebels, and asking his followers to fight the Syrian government.

Some of the main Al Qaeda fighters who overthrew Gadaffi – and now appear to be in control of Libya – are already helping the Syrian rebels.

This is curious, given that the U.S. is considering military options for ousting the Syrian government, American allies Britain and Qatar allegedly already have foreign troops inside Syria, and the U.S. has been planning regime change in Syria for over 50 years.

Mainstream reports also state that the U.S. and its allies are backing Iranian terrorists.

I thought Al Qaeda was America’s mortal enemy. Why are we backing terrorists?





Note: We Added a Facebook “Like” Button at End of Posts…

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

…because apparently I am the last person in the developed world under age 50 who does not use Facebook.  But if you do… feel free to “like” any story of interest so your facebook apostles can read too. :)

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog





 
 
 

ValueWalk

DRF Legend Steven Crist On Value Investing And Horse Betting

By VintageValueinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

I’m not at all a gambler.

In fact, I used to be proud to say that, thinking that gambling was only for chumps.

But after reading Crist on Value, I’m beginning to reconsider my position on the activity.

Let me explain…

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Phil's Favorites

Fuse is Lit! Target2 Imbalances Hit Crisis Levels: An Email Exchange With the ECB Over Target2

Courtesy of Mish.

Eurozone Target2 imbalances have touched or exceeded the crisis levels hit in 2012 when Greece was on the verge of leaving the Eurozone. Others have noted the growing imbalances as well.

I had a couple of questions for the ECB regarding Target2, which they have answered, I believe disingenuously.

First, we will explain Target2, then we will take a look at various charts, viewpoints, and the email exchange with the ECB.

Target2 Background

Target2 stands for Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement System. It is a reflection of capital flight from the “Club-Med” countries in Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Italy) to banks in Northern Europe.

Pater Tenebrarum at the Ac...



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Zero Hedge

Is This Overlooked Statistic Signaling Investor Complacency?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

The number of unchanged issues on the NYSE has spiked, often a sign of complacency among investors.

While the price structure and breadth in the stock market remain solid and supportive of higher prices, one area of concern that we have been noting is investor sentiment. Specifically, it is too complacent for our liking. Investors and traders seem to be outright dismissing the notion of risk in the stock market. And while extreme bullishnes...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil; Energy stocks suggesting its about to fall, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below takes a look at the price action of Crude Oil, Energy ETF (XLE) and Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) over the past three years.

Could Energy stocks be suggesting the next big move in Crude Oil again? Which direction are they suggesting?

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

At this time the intermediate trend in Cru...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Dollar Falls With Stocks Amid Dovish Fed Minutes: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)

The dollar fell while Treasuries advanced after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed officials confident they can raise rates gradually amid little threat that near-term inflation will accelerate.

U.S. Solar Surged 95% to Become Largest Source of New Energy (Bloomberg)

Solar developers installed a record 14.6 gigawatts in the U.S. last year, almost double the total from 2015 and enough to make photovoltaic panels the largest...



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Members' Corner

People With Cats Will Understand?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Taking a "potty break" from "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo".

This week's subject is self evident, starring two lovable felines Cole and Marmalade in, People With Cat's Will Understand.

...

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Chart School

Market Pause

Courtesy of Declan.

Nothing really to add to yesterday. Markets took minor hits, but there was little intraday spread. The biggest spread was in the Russell 2000 which was underperforming heading into today's session. It reversed most of yesterday's gains, but it has some way to go before it begins challenging the breakout


The New Lows and Highs is in a secular bullish pattern, and it will take continued pressure in spike lows to generate a sustained sell off - none of which is happening here.

...

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Digital Currencies

It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse and Their Woefully Misinformed Bitcoin Advice

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton at Zero Hedge

Credit Suisse has been posting cryptocurrency advisories over the last few weeks. They are quite one-sided, although couched in the appearance of objectivity. To explain why it's couched in the appearance of objectivity, and not actually objective, let me give you some background. 

The Obama administration enacted a law known as the Fiduciary Rule, as per Investopedia

The Department of Labor’s definition of a fiduciary demands that advisors act in the best interests of their clients, and to put their clients' interests above their own. It leaves no room for advisors to conce...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Mapping The Market

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By Jean Luc

These GOP guys were so worried about Hillary's email server and now we find out that we had something close to a Russian mole in the White House. In the meantime, Trump keeps on using his unsecured phone, had high level conversation in his resort in front of dinner guests! It's getting so bad that rumors are now circulating that the NSA is not sharing information with the WH:

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By 

….Our spies have had enough of these shady Russian connections—and they are starting to push back….In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence fro...



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Promotions

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Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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