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Record High Wednedsay – We Will All Be Billionaires

America is great again.

There's no denying it – from a stock market perspective, it doesn't get any greater than this.  Forgive me for not believing but how can you deny how easy it is to make Millions in this market.  It's the largest cash giveaway of all time – and all you have to do is play along.  Out Long-Term Portfolio, for example, is just under 250% at $1.75M and we're being CONSERVATIVE – with 77% of our portfolio in CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?) yet still, the EXACT SAME POSITIONS we just reviewed on Nov 17th at $1,698,372, are up another $51,171 (3%) in just 12 days.  

At that rate of return (6%/month), we'll have $3.5M by the end of next year and why not – certainly we're working hard for it, right?  Well, that's sort of the problem – we're not working for it at all and neither are the companies represented by these stocks – they are not growing profits or revenues to cover these gains – they are simply getting more and more expensive.  Now, clearly a lot of the exhuberance in the market is about the forthcoming tax cuts but – even if we assume they are going through – how much of an impact will they really have when US Corporations only paid $444Bn in taxes last year?

That's on $3.5 TRILLION in profits so, on the whole, an effective tax rate of about 13% so how much will lowering the Corporate Tax Rate to 20% really accomplish?  All it's going to do is lowe the rates for the companies that aren't already cheating by hiding their earnings overseas or funneling profits through partnerships so they can show losses to offset the gains.  Will they effectively pay 10%?  9%?  Even at 9%, they are only saving $130Bn yet the market is up TRILLIONS in anticipation of these cuts.   

The ENTIRE market cap of the S&P 500 at the 2009 lows was $6Tn and today we are testing $24Tn with just 5 stocks; - FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX and GOOGL (FAANG), making up $1Tn.  I'm old enough to remember when a Trillion Dollars was considered a lot of money, but not these days, with the S&P adding $1Tn (125 points) since October 1st. 

Where did this money come from?  I don't know – what's the difference.  The money is every bit as notional as the now $210Bn "value" of BitCoin, $180Bn of which was added this year – the year when money ceased to matter.  That's how they will look back on 2017 – it's been a year when we lost our bearings and threw out rational valuation models and simply started paying WHATEVER for whatever struck our fancy at the moment.  Someone just bought a picture for $500M, for God's sake!  

We shouldn't complain about it – we should just take the money and run – just remember to get some off the table and have a few hedges – just in case.  Having hedges gives us to confidence to keep playing the game and we don't need to be greedy when the market is spitting out 100% annualized returns.  For example, back on Sept 20th, in our PSW Report, we published our fairly new Money Talk Portfolio which, at the time, was at $59,075 with just 4 positions:

Today, less than two months later, those same 4 UNTOUCHED (as I haven't been back on the show to make another call yet) positons are now worth $85,362 – a gain of $26,287 (44%) in just over 60 days.  Come on folks – this is RIDICULOUS!!!  I may be good but this is simply silly – you shouldn't be able to make money like this – it cannot end well!  

It's even more ridiculous that I can go on TV and publically announce our trades and publish the portfolio and STILL it returns 44% in two months.  I'm good but no one is that good – this is a broken system that is allowing already rich people (like us) to drastically increase our wealth and, if the lower classes aren't in the market – then they'll simply fall further and further behind which is great – because then they won't be competing for us for the things we like to buy, the land we want to acquire, the hotel rooms we like to vacation at.  

Image result for share the wealth cartoonThat's how we're having the greatest rally in history without any sign of inflation – only a select few of us are able to participate and get these kinds of returns and, soon, we won't have to pay taxes on them either!  The Trump Tax plan has dozens of was for rich people to stay in the 20% tax braket while poor people – who rely on paychecks – will pay the full rates.  The biggest scam of all is that, if I earn $1.5M, I pay the same $7,886.40 in Social Security that a person earning $150,000 pays.  Even if I made 1,000 times that ($1.5Bn), I'd still pay $7,886.40 and that's why the system is broken but F you – that's your fault for being poor, right?  

Not only is the investor class able to double their wealth in a good year of trading (or 10x trading Bitcoins!) while paying just 20% tax rates on the gains (and 1/10th of what you pay for SS), but we'll be able to take it with us when we die now as the estate tax is eliminated.  You poor people have no idea how completly F'd you are by this set-up as our children will own EVERYTHING in a couple of generations.  America will truly be Great Again – the way it was when we had a monarchy!  

Speaking of GREAT – GreenCoins (GRE) have come down to 0.000220 which is still double where we told you we like them but 90% below the highs.  I was going to wait to announce it but, while they are cheap, let's see if we can help make PSW greater by setting Annual Membership Prices at 0.00044 per GreenCoin so, if you want to get a 50% discount on any PSW Annual Membership (full-priced ones only – no additional discounts please!), we will put a floor in for the month of December and will accept payments in GreenCoin (via wallet transfer) at that rate.  

In other words, a $1,495 Annual Top Trades Membership can be paid with "just" 3.4M GreenCoins or a $2,499 Trend-Watcher Membership can be paid with 5.7M GreenCoins, which are currently trading for $1,254.  We are not doing this altruistically, our plan is to increase interest in GreenCoins while we accumulate them for ourselves.  Greencoins are currently at about the level where BitCoin was when 10,000 of them were used to purchase a pizza – that would now be a $100M pizza!  

There are many crypto currencies out there and we like GreenCoin because it has an environmentally-friendly kicker but it's just as likely to go worthless as any of them.  On the whole, we think the BitCoin mania (almost $11,000 this morning) is out of control but, if it is ultimately accepted, we will see many crypto currencies getting a boost and it sure would be nice to have one of them in our wallets.  See our "Crypto Corner" for all the latest news on the subject.  

Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding QuarterCrypto currencies are just another stealth way for the rich to get much, much richer in Trump's America as vast fortunes have already been made in what is now a $230Bn BitCoin market (up $20Bn since I started writing this post).  Where does the $20Bn come from?  Who cares, as long as we're getting it and not giving it, right?  It sure didn't come from the economy, which grew just 3.3% according to this morning's GDP report.  

Economy up 3.3%, market up 30% – sounds bubbly to me but you've got to be in it to win it – so we'll keep playing. 

Speaking of which, we officially announced our Trade of the Year on Hanes Brand (HBI) yesterday and we sent our a Top Trade Alert to our Members and published the trade for our Options Opportunity Portfolio over at Seeking Alpha and, this afternoon, I'd like to invite you to join us for a FREE Live Trading Webinar at 1pm, EST, where we'll talk about our Trade of the Year, crypto-currencies and other ways to keep up with the Trumps.

And, as I write this, BitCoin hits $11,200 – AMAZING! 

 


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  1. Good morning Phil and PSW, the following is a pubic service announcement… inappropriate sexual behavior in the workplace is a serious matter.  If you think you may be a victim of sexual advances, harassment or misconduct, you may be entitled to compensation.

    Please call the offices of Lauer, Franken, Louis, Spacey, Weinstein and Rose or our sister firm Barker, Albert, Halperin, Cosby, Oreskes and Letterman, for a free consultation immediately.  Don't wait operators are standing by.


  2. And if your case involves minors, please call the office of Judge Moore!


  3. Good Morning All! 

    Join us for our LIVE webinar, today at 1pm, here:

    http://philstockworld.enterthemeeting.com/m/J6VKJBC8


  4. Time to add new lines already?


  5. StJL – A hearty Marv Albert YES!!!!!  Judge Moore personally attends to all cases involving minors.  ROFLMAO…. yet any P-grabber can get elected.  Double standard? Apathy? or just ignorance?  Like Phil, we report, you decide and Out.


  6. I am trying to understand the average Trump supporters – they will most likely end up paying more taxes in the next couple of years while their boss gets a big tax cut. The added profits will be used to buy robots to replace these poor workers. In the meantime they will also probably lose their health coverage and there are plans to privatize Social Security and Medicare. Of course, Internet services will be more expensive as well as clean water and clean air. What is the remaining motivation to vote for this guy? I have a guess though…


  7. Good Morning.


  8. More on what is driving the market:

    https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2017/11/28/active-vs-passive-vs-amazon-et-al/

    It’s not unusual for a few stocks to drive broader market performance in a given year, but we would be foolish to ignore that it has been the same several stocks quite frequently in recent years. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google are responsible for roughly 20% of the S&P 500’s performance this year, and generated more than the entire return of the index in 2015. Is it healthy that including or excluding monopoly firms explains so much performance?

    It’s true regardless.

    And here are Amazon's numbers:

    Amazon's Annual Revenue and Net Income


  9. A bubble:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-11-27/bitcoin-crash-may-take-a-while-longer

    In the past year, bitcoins have generated transaction fees of nearly $219 million. And at $9,600 a piece, the total value of all bitcoins — their market cap — now tops $155 billion. That gives bitcoins the equivalent of a trailing P/E ratio of 708. That means based on valuation, bitcoins are four times more expensive than dot-com stocks were at the height of their bubble.


  10. NEITHER NAVAJO NOR CODE TALKER.  Albeit hilariously making the rounds as "The Navajo Code Talker response to @realDonaldTrump is easily decoded."   Nicolas Demeersman's photo – The Chaman, Nazca Line, Pérou, 2011, as part of his "f-ing tourist" series is available signed and numbered for 1000E.


  11. Naybob, just clicked the link and OMG there's only 1 left! Can you imagine… guess the inkjet printer broke.


  12. Good Morning Everyone,

    I am a new member to the chat room though I have been following Phil for years.  I finally have the time to trade on a regular basis.  I work full time in Telecom as a Sr. Sales Engineer for Lightower Fiber Networks (soon to be Crown Castle Fiber).  I am looking forward to learning from all of you and hopefully contributing as well.

    Ken (feltok)


  13. Welcome feltok!


  14. Welcome Ken


  15. Muck – "Just clicked the link and OMG there's only 1 left! Can you imagine… guess the inkjet printer broke."

    I called the photographer and negotiated a deal. Since its a limited quantity, but we can always fork or print more, we hope to get the price to 9K per print, kinda like Bitcoin…. 

    Welcome Kenny, hope this doesn't happen. Out.


  16. Welcome, Ken!


  17. Follow up on Phil's M trade from yesterday here my armchair trade

    Buy the stock @ 22.23 and sell the May 22/22 straddle for 4.15. Combined monthly return 4.67%


  18. Here we go again


  19. Good morning PSWers….two good articles to read about Biotech and Pharma in general.  

    Biotech & Pharma


  20. Good morning!  

    They got Matt Lauer now – amazing.  Even more amazing is Trump's reaction:

    Wow, Matt Lauer was just fired from NBC for “inappropriate sexual behavior in the workplace.” But when will the top executives at NBC & Comcast be fired for putting out so much Fake News. Check out Andy Lack’s past!

    So now that Matt Lauer is gone when will the Fake News practitioners at NBC be terminating the contract of Phil Griffin? And will they terminate low ratings Joe Scarborough based on the “unsolved mystery” that took place in Florida years ago? Investigate!

    What a psycho! 

    Matt Lauer lost his job. Charlie Rose lost his job. Mark Halperin lost his job. Glenn Thrush lost his job. Billy Bush lost his job. Harvey Weinstein lost his job. Kevin Spacey lost his job. But in politics… Conyers still in Congress. Moore still running. Trump still President.

    Donald Trump's day so far: – Forgets he's also a sexual predator while attacking Matt Lauer – Posts white supremacist videos – Attacks CNN (again) – Accuses Morning Joe of murder – No really, murder – "I guess somebody likes me" – Misspelled the word "that" – It's still only 9am

    Nasdaq turning down a bit.  

    Big Chart/StJ – This is getting really nuts.  

    Supporters/StJ – Most people are sheep, they will sacrifice anything for someone who makes them feel "safe" – even when that person is cruel to them.  

    Image result for jews vote pharaoh

    AMZN/StJ – Making money is so 20th Century.  The 21st Century is about REVENUES – profits are someone else's problem.  

    Navajo/Naybob – But it's still funny.  

    Welcome Feltok!  You can start by telling us what you think of FTR – we've been suffering with them for a while…  

    Thanks Pharm. 


  21. Phil – Your Top Trade for 2018 is trending  # 1  on SA.


  22. Financials strong this morning.


  23. 15-Nov-17 08:54 ET

    BBBY

    Bed Bath & Beyond target lowered to $17 from $21 at KeyBanc Capital Mkts; Underweight  (20.22)


  24. Phil – beware those Pharaoh and Stop Moses tweets could invoke Dathan of FU.


  25. BBBY 

    Keybanc must have missed something


  26. PSW/BTC

    Does anyone know how I can convert my BTC to GRE on coinexchange.io. The GRE wallet is back onlilne now and I wanted to convert my BTC to green coins.

    regards


  27. HBI   Phil's SA post has to be the reason its up over 3% today


  28. WIN – Former dumpster dive doing well.  Sold a piece.


  29. WTF last night I noted that AAPL and AMZN were weak, and again today, but so what…buy BBBY





  30. PSW/BTC

    sorry got it…BDC's page has the details

    http://www.philstockworld.com/2017/10/17/bdcs-crypto-corner-2/

    regards


  31. Reason all the retail stocks are headed higher this morning? HBI, M, TGT???

    I aint complaining!


  32. Albo/CTL   Thumbs up.

    Retail, yikes, my short calls are killing me with these big jumps.


  33. Please notice that TLT is plummeting.  Is it for real?  What does it mean?



  34. Chipotle says founder Ells to step down as CEO



  35. Baron – Finally.  But a long way to go for me. 


  36. Bitcoin.  I think BDC had posted a link to coinbase the other day.  anyway, i splurged and bought $100 of bitcoin.  this morning it was worth $140 (including the $10 they gave out for joining coinbase).  Went to sell, to take my 40% profit.  website is down!


  37. Phil / FTR – I will take a close look at them tonight and give you my thoughts.  I live in CT and support 5 Sales Reps in CT, one in RI and two in NY (Albany and Westchester) and I compete with them in CT all the time.  They bought AT&T's copper and fiber infrastructure about 3 years ago and it has been a disaster for them.  Most of the issues were poor documentation from AT&T.  The support for both business and residential customers has been horrible.  The first two years we had a steady influx of customers coming from them due to support issues on their side.  They have slashed prices considerably within the past 12-18 months to try to compete.  Unless a customer is solely buying on price or we can't get to a location without a build and the delay that build requires they have not been much competition.  I would like to review what other markets they are in and what the build costs for fiber are in those locations.  They might be more competitive in markets with high build costs.


  38. POTUS re-tweeting British Far right cr*p.  I thought he was a lowlife but yet he finds new depths.  Is that official U.S policy or should we wait until the grown ups come back form their party? You guys cannot afford four years of this.  There will be nothing left.

    BTW the party that the dear leader is supporting got 1.8% of the vote for London Mayor so hopefully Donny will manage to hit that target.  Oh, for simpler times.




  39. Trump Shares Inflammatory Anti-Muslim Videos


  40. Wow, Nas going down and down.

    Hopefully /TF catches up – still 1,545 after testing 1,550.

    Yellen isn't helping things.  

    Trending/Albo – That's interesting as it's a day later.   Maybe that's why they are having this strange pop.

    BBBY/Baron – I like them.  

    Oil down 3.4Mb but Gasoline up 3.6Mb and Distillates up 2.7Mb so net up almost 3Mb is not good.  

    /CL makes a nice short if they fail $57.50 with tight stops above that line. 

    Honey badger don't care:


  41. Phil – saved this for post Thanksgiving, Watergate, Twinkie Defense, Son of Sam and Zodiac, those were contemporary events for both of us.

    So after last weeks good news, I did some catching up on the Cult of Chucky.  A non MSM anecdote from Susan Atkins, tells it all. Then tallied up the public cost of Manson Family Values, they cost a bundle and will continue to do so.

    Post sentencing and after all these years, one moves on.  In my rehash, I discovered an unbelievably sickening irony which validates the following in spades. 

    Rephrasing your statement from last week, in the case of multiple confessions and definitive guilt, death should be mandatory, swift, and I would add, those convicts should not be allowed conjugal visits.   

    If you don't already know, after you read about that irony, and you have one of those "you've got to be fucking kidding" moments, please let me know your valued opinion as a contemporary. Out.


  42. Good job averaging out, Albo.  

    Retail/Crs – Well the money has to go somewhere.  This is why I love my laggards in a mega-rally like this – eventually, people start going for the bargain stocks – even FTR, M, CBI…

    TLT (and the 10-year) down on Yellen's comments that rate hikes are going ahead as planned.  

    FTR/Feltok – The big story is they bought VZ's business (FIOS too) in FL, TX and CA.  Their real damage is from the huge debt they incurred to get it ($10.5Bn) and then the bad luck of being hit by hurricanes over the summer.  We've been adding on the way down, figuring they'll figure it out eventually but I'd love an industry expert's perspective.  

    4 years/Malsg – I can't believe the damage he's managed to do in one year!  

    Manson/Naybob – Well certainly we don't need those genes in our pool and that money would certainly be better spent on education – it's a ridiculous system.  

    CMG blasting higher on CEO stepping down, LTP up another – and I am not kidding – $33,000 this morning (since I copied yesterday's finish for the post).  This is truly nuts folks – I want to go back to cash so badly it hurts….


  43. Sorry in advance-

    I know this has probably been asked 100 times (but I can't sit and chat all day) – can someone post link/website where I can look into buying a little greencoin.  I don't want to be the only guy at work who didn't contribute to the $400 million lottery ticket.

    Thanks



  44. Thanks Pat!


  45. ETP/Phil – This stock has really been getting hit as of late.  The current yield is 14% and it appears that there dividend growth has been great at 15% a year over the last 3 years.  Any thoughts by anyone would be appreciated. 


  46. what is wrong with AMZN today?? 


  47. tshroyer/ETP

    Agreed on ETP; I own a few hundred with puts and calls.  Being sold but not hard.  A;; MLP's out of favor but I don't know why.

    Jabo/AMZN

    It seems that suddenly people have decided that regular retailers can make money on-line and that we don't necessarily need AMZN, but what will concern me is the discounts and margins.


  48. Go M!!!! PLEASE NO TEASE!!!!


  49. This is ridiculous; I am losing most of yesterday's gains because of all the protection I have on all the stocks that have been going nowhere but down while all the tech stuff I added is getting clobbered too.  Its enough to make you want to quit.


  50. Baron

    Balance.  Balance.  One of the hardest things to learn.


  51. GreenCoin – Don't go crazy and overpay guys.  Someone was happy to get 0.00022 on $13,000 yesterday (probably miners) so just put in a bid and wait patiently.   We haven't had a rally yet that hasn't come back to this level eventually.  That BitCoin pizza was almost 8 years ago and GreenCoin has only been around for 3 years but that's the point – in theory, if we can get a pizza-like tipping point going – then all those millions of GreenCoins might be worth something some-day – even a penny would be nice!  

    I'm hoping the government cracks down on ICOs, which will make existing coins more valuable.  

    There goes $57.50 on /CL, RB taking a tumble too.

    ETP/Tshroy – I like the pipeline companies in general but ETP has a lot of old assets that are in steep decline and that has forced them to borrow heavily to buy new stuff and the changing landscape from Trans-Canada isn't necessarily good for the older pipeline companies (unless they are lucky enough to be in a hub zone for TPP).  I don't know the answer to that – just saying it's a concern.  They've got a huge project that's been delayed but should turn them higher next year if it's done by July – as now forecasted.  Also, they keep diluting – they just issued $1.5Bn of preferreds, which is 10% of the stock.  The good news is they got $1.5Bn…  

    They do make money, about $500M that can be counted on but that's not cheap at $17Bn so it's all about betting on the Future.  I'd watch them and hope they go to $10 or less (on a dividend cut), where I'd be willing to take a stand (assuming it's not for some new reason).  

    AMZN/Jabob – People are realizing how silly it is.  

    Submitted on 2017/11/27 at 11:04 am

    AMZN/Baron – Almost time to short them again:

    Jan $1,250 calls can be sold for $22 and that pays for most of a Jan $1,250 ($63.50)/$1,200 ($34.50) bear put spread at $29 for net $7 on the $50 spread.  

    Jan $1,250s already down to $10!  

    Protection/Baron – That's why we do a lot of 1/2 covers when the stock is low in the channel – makes it easier to roll out of trouble.  

    And what DC said!  


  52. What caused the near 2% drop in /NQ? And why didn’t other indexes follow? Such a crazy market to try to understand 


  53. Not a great day to enter, but you can still sell 2020 $450 TSLA calls for $35.


  54. /NQ/Japar – The FAANG stocks sold off – even AAPL down 2.5%.  

    Webinar Time!  


  55. Glad I had QQQ puts, sold! TYVM


  56. opened at 33c, sold for $2.20


  57. anyone having issues getting into the webinar?


  58. what is the access code, so I can listen in?


  59. SJL – Moore,   Ok 9-1 , 'we' still are winning… lets add Garrison Keller and Matt Lauer


  60. Latch, no problem here


  61. ABX/Phil – still languishing down here. You still like this miner going forward or is gold dead because all the goldbugs have gone to bitcoin? :roll:


  62. GG and NEM following dip in gold today.. ABX more or less 'stable'


  63. OPTT/Phil – any reason to buy them down here..?


  64. Nice arm chair play on HRB.  Buy stock for $25.82, sell the July $25/23 call/put strangle for $5.10.  3.1% monthly return.  Break even is $21.50.  


  65. DF – well, finally..!


  66. pat_swap, be very careful, crypto trading is very very volatile right now and it has bubbled up a substantial amount in the last half year. 

    Personally I'm on the sidelines


  67. GBTC - good grief – how don to your bladders!


  68. Profits are for suckers:

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/11/ubers-crisis-deepens-with-record-quarterly-loss/

    Uber has logged another quarter of record-breaking losses, losing $1.5 billion in the third quarter of 2017. For comparison, Uber lost $2.8 billion in all of 2016 and lost $1.1 billion in the second quarter of 2017.


  69. What's that Latch?

    And how about Hastert? And that's with boys. Gross.


  70. Not looking good for the indexes with /NQ still at lows and failing weak bounce.  Still love /TF shorts though they never love me back (now 1,541) and /YM below 23,900 is also good but at 24,000 I think I'd have enough conviction to short over the weekend.  

    QQQ/Mkucs – Even a broken clock, right?   Nice job!  

    Webinar/Latch – I didn't know we had access codes.

    ABX/Scott – Well Bitcoin is stealing gold's thunder but I like the spread of ABX's sub-$900 extraction costs.  In the webinar, we discussed selling the 2020 $13 puts for $1.75 against the $13 ($3.25)/20 ($1.20) bull call spread at $2.05 for net 0.30 on the $7 spread.  I definitely like that!  

    OPTT/Scott – They got a patent approval in Oct (huge spike) and that allowed them to quickly raise $8M at $1.42 but, since then, drifting lower on no news and impatient investors.  If you want to wait 2 years for testing, building, selling and deploying – it's a fun place to park money.

    HRB/Palotay – I love them when they are cheap.  

    UBER/StJ – They should merge with TSLA and form a monetary black hole.  


  71. Meanwhile, what exactly is Uber doing to lose money?  They, in theory, collect a percentage of what the independent drivers collect in fares so their overhead should be an app and database plus support staff. I imagine legal fees are through the roof and bribes are hard to categorize but the payoff for Uber is clearly the goal of getting rid of the drivers so the company is all about establishing a basis of Gross Revenues from trips and then getting VCs to agree that eliminating those pesky drivers will drop many Billions to the bottom line.  As an investor, however, I have to wonder what Ford needs Uber for if the cars drive themselves and pick people up for a fee.  Can't they just roll off the assembly line and go to work?

    I guess Uber's business plan could be co-opted by Angie's List – who could say they will replace all the contractors with robots and make hundreds of Billions of Dollars.  Hmmm, I should call Angie!  devil


  72. Phil, can you give us your thoughts on GNC?  I just read this article, and am a little concerned.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4128563-tunnel-vision-gnc


  73. Uber / Phil – How far are we still from the driverless model? 2, 3, 4 years? That's between $6 and $18B of losses at the current pace. Not sure they will be able to find enough patient people or will have dilute everybody and make it even harder. And the moat that they are building can't be wide enough that companies like Google or Apple can eventually steal their lunch. After all, Google has the apps, the maps and the driverless technology. And the money. And if they can show you a couple of ads while you wait for the driver, better for them. Apple seems to be getting close to that trinity as well. 


  74. Winning / Latch – Surely you are joking! The entire Fox News outfit is a nest of sexual predators! And let's not forget POTUS. And Moore is accused of statutory rape – that has to count for more than one :-)


  75. GNC/Palotay – I think those are very pessimistic numbers assuming that they've wasted everything they spent to revamp the stores and revenues will go down, not up and, even so, you can buy the entire company for $400M at $6 and they make, in this guy's worst case, $54M – and he has to make worst-case tax assumptions on a bill that hasn't been passed yet to get there.  

    And let's not forget that that's $54M of FCF net of debt so, once that's paid off, then they are making over $200M against a $400M valuation and, since thy pay 10% off every year, you can assume a 10% growth in FCF each year going forward.  Not the sort of thing I'd run away from.  

    Meanwhile, companies tend to be priced on EBITDA, not FCF and earnings x 2 = market cap.  So let's say I wanted to buy GNC for $800M and pay off the $1.2Bn in debt for $2Bn.  Will I then be happy with my $240Bn in net income?  If so, then I want to own the stock for $400M don't I?

    Driverless/StJ – Well, consider how long it took IRobot to get a Roomba to work right… 

    When a Roomba fails, the floor is dirty.  When a self-driving car fails – people die.  Even if the possibility of failure is 1/1,000,000,000 we're talking 200M cars making 2+ trips a day so every 2.5 days is 1Bn chances to fail.  They can talk about "the finest minds" but didn't those same finest minds also secure the data at Verizon (14M), Sabre (10s of thousands of partners), Equifax (everybody!)  or the WannaCry hacking tool that was stolen from the NSA – that was all this year!  

    SpaceX has lost a dozen rockets in only dozens of attempts and don't forget the time they crashed a $100M satellite into Mars because someone mixed up meters and feet.  

    Not only that but people WILL die.  1.3M people die now so, even if cars are 90% better at driving than we are – 130,000 people will be killed by robots each year and the number injured in car crashes is about 30M (1/10th of all people) and half the time those people know it's their fault so they don't complain much but now it will ALWAYS be the robot's fault.  

    The robots will have to decide who lives and who dies – we don't even have a Government ethics board to set standards for such a thing – how can we even consider releasing the cars without that?  

    So, even with "flawless" technology and winning over the insurance companies and getting people used to the idea of getting into an empty car – we're at least 3-4 years away from this being a thing – and that's the best case.  

    Even worse for Uber as they would be like Dominoes – who took a lot of crap because their 30-minute drivers were crashing into people.  It doesn't matter how right the Uber car is when it chooses to run over your kid or crashes with your family inside - you're still suing, right? 

    The manufacturers will have the same issue as they are no longer making a tool to be used by humans – this is their creature they are unleashing on us – that ups the liability considerably.  



  76. Phil / FTR – i've though there will be a run up to FTR coming into the Dividend and it looks to be that way – maybe not all related to dividend, but it is probably a good portion of this.  I also think there will be a huge drop once the ex-dividend date is reached.  The ex dividend date is 12/14.  Is the rule that you must own the stock the day prior to ex dividend, and if you sell on the ex dividend date you get the payment? I'm planning on taking some LT losses on this this year to off set LT some gains ( in AAPL) and want to be sure i get it right. 


  77. Phil / FTR – just spoke with my broker….  He told me that ex dividend is the first date w/o dividend.  So i Must hold the stock at the end of 12/13…  But i can sell anytime on 12/14….  Given this, i believe the 14th is when we'll see at least a .50c to 1.00 drop in the stock…  Hopefully it keeps rising until 12/12 and 12/13 .


  78. FTR/Batman – I don't know about the exact date but it's an 0.60 dividend and you can pick up the Jan $10 ($2.60)/8 ($1.05) bear put spread for $1.55 so you net out at the current price of $8.45.  It's only got 0.45 upside if the stock drops but better than nothing.  On top of that, if you intend to get out, you can sell the Jan $8 calls for 0.80 but that would put off your exit.  Things to consider.  

    Keillor/Scott – If the rules are you can go back 40 years, then I have 400-500 guys in my High School we could lock up along with thousands at college etc.  With Franken it's "he tried to kiss me" and "he pretended to squeeze my boobs (but didn't) in a picture while I was sleeping – using my camera so it was a joke for me to see later"  This is a pretty low bar – even my woke daughter agrees with that.  

    The strange thing is that Conservatives can't tell the difference – what Franken did (not that it was right) is NOT the same as what Bill O'Reilly and Roger Ailes paid tens of millions to cover up or Weinstein – those people were in positions of power and used those positions to pressure women – Franken, on the other hand, was just being a jerk.  

    I think you need a panel made up of mainly women, to decide on a case by case business what the punishment should be for the crimes – this trial by mob stuff is getting ugly. 

    I guess South Park was right:






  79. Phil / FTR. – I'll be selling a portion of my position ( 1.5K sh) After dividends.  The I'll be shorting in Jan – I'm thinking of Shorting at 8 as you suggest with my remaining 6K …..  




  80. US, China hold low-key military talks amid NKorea tensions


  81. AP FACT CHECK: Anti-Muslim videos misrepresent what happened



  82. British Far-Right Group Exults Over Attention From Trump











  83. OPEC Is Expected to Extend Output Cuts, but Questions Remain Over Length



  84. AMZN – a sell-side opinion:

     http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-truth-behind-amazons-reported-earnings/amp/

    "The point here is that every facet of AMZN’s financials is highly misleading."


  85. Oops. Not "sell-side."  Meant SHORT-side.