Fabulous Friday Finish – Nasdaq Up 10% for the Month

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What a nice 4 weeks it has been!  

Nasdaq Weekly with 5% Rule

As you can see from the chart, we’re up 10% in July and up 15.6% since we tested 11,000 (the Weak Bounce Line) in early June.  As we expected, AAPL has given us the final push we needed from big tech and AMZN helped as well last night and thank goodness INTC is now “little tech” because they are down about 10% this morning after a terrible report.

We had flipped bullish in our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) to take advantage of the dip and, since then, we have blasted higher but now we have to consider whether this rally is likely to continue or whether we should be locking in these gains while we can.  To do that, we need to consider what lies ahead.  

    • Covid  is at 130,000 cases per day in the US – that’s 15% (1/6) of our population annually – just under a very-concerning (again) 150,000 (20% of the population)
    • Putin could do something crazy – that’s a constant problem.  
        1. Oil is up at $98.55 at the moment and Nat Gas is $8.31 – could be worse, could be better.  
    • The Dollar is at 106 – easing off from the highs.  In fact, the Dollar fell 1.5% in the past two days and the S&P rose 4% – that strong correlation continues so we have to consider whether we think the Dollar will be stronger or weaker next week.  
    • Next week, we have Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and they’ve been running hot about 350,000 – which strengthens the Dollar as there is new demand for Dollars to pay new workers.  We will also get Consumer Credit next Friday and the reports from AXP, V and MA suggest this will be a strong number – also demands more Dollars.  
        1. PMI, ISM and Construction Spending on Tuesday
        2. PMI & ISM Services and Factory Orders on Wednesday

So the Dollar has no reason to pull back next week so how about earnings?  

    • Monday:  ATVI, AFL, CAR, SPG, RIG, VNO
    • Tuesday:  ARNC, BP, CAT, CMI, DD, RACE, HUN, IGT, JBLU, KBR, KKR, MAR, MLCO, TAP, PEG, SEE, SPWR, UBER, AMD, ABNB, CZR, CHK, DENN, EA, FNF, GILD, MSTR, OXY, PYPL, PRU, SOFI, SBUX, TEX
    • Wednesday: AMRN, BWA, BCO, CVS, EXC, GNRC, LL, MRNA, NYT, SMG, SUN, TUP, UAA, UTHR, YUM, ALB, ALL, BKNG, CLX, EBAY, ETD, FSR, IR, MRO, MED, MET, MGM, MTG, PAA, RYN, RCII, HOOD, TWO, WU, YELL
    • Thursday: APD, BABA, ATI, APO, CNQ, LNG, CIM, CI, COP, CEG, CROX, LLY, FIS, ITT, JCI, K, MIDD, NRG, PZZA, PARA, PENN, QSR, SEAS, SHAK, STWD, W, YETI, AMC, AMGN, BYND, CVNA, ED, DASH, EOG, EXPE, GPRO, LYV, LYFT, PLUG, PSA, RMAX, SWN, SU, SPCE, WBD, WYNN, YELP
    • Friday: CGC, CNK, DKNG, FYBR, GOGO, GT, WDC 

I don’t see any particularly derailing data but also nothing particularly good and the Dollar will rise so we can expect a pullback or flattening next week as earnings don’t look too dangerous but not too many big upside surprises are likely either.  

So it looks like we’ll be reviewing our Member Portfolios and looking for things we can cap (sell short calls against) – for income and protection and we’ll probably make some minor adjustments in the Short-Term Portfolio (STP) to get a little more bearish into the weekend.  If there’s an upside surprise – we have PLENTY of longs that will already benefit.  

Have a great weekend, 

    • Phil

 

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Good Morning.

I love the educational posts! Great work teaching us how to fish…

Phil . BABA – They announced they will be doing a listing in HK, which I think bears poorly for the SEC negotiations on delisting here. There was another note that indicated the China was considering putting companies into tiers based on the amount of sensitive data…. most to lease… BABA would be int he most sensitive to no SEC access. This all bear poorly…. I think November essentially starts the countdown on delisting. Should we be bailing on this stock, or are I missing something. This is not about business but government….

good morning well the rich are certainly doing well
 Hermes posts strong sales and profit growth; The French luxury goods company reported strong sales in the second quarter, up 26 percent to 2.7 billion euros, while achieving record operating profitability in the first half of the year, topping 42 percent of revenues for the first time

Luxury British carmaker Bentley first-half operating profit more than doubled, boosted by increased customization of cars as sales rose significantly in Europe and Britain despite ongoing global economic uncertainty

 Luxury eyewear company EssilorLuxottica raised its operating margins substantially in the first half of the year, it said on Friday, despite a challenging environment

Phil// I have the below position

INTC
2024 20 40/55 BCS
2024 5 Sold naked 45 puts.

WBA
2023 10 45/52.5 BCS
2023 5 Sold naked 40 puts

WPM
2023 10 35/50 BCS

GOLD
2023 5 sold naked 20 puts.

What should I do with these positions? Thanks

LQDA Pharm’s recommendation. You can buy the stock at $4.97 then sell the Jan23 $5 calls for $2.2 and the $2.50 puts for .55 or .60 not too shabby. Perhaps only sell half of the calls for some upside
GLUE the Jan23 $7.50 puts can be sold for $1.10

phil

do you like the intc 2024 35 puts at about 5.30

Good Morning
Phil. What do you think about SWK ? Beaten down after earnings it is almost at covid lows
Thanks

bhc 2024 5dollar puts are selling for 2.50 with the stock at 4.67 . please correct me if im wrong but isnt that an impossible to lose money situation even if it goes to zero?

re bhc sorry disregard that comment didnt take enuf time to think about it lol

WBA stands for BBB bullshit buffles brains!!!!!

Good Morning.

Little different question regarding 401K.

I’m looking to deploy cash buildup but wondering what fund types to target.

  • small caps
  • mid
  • large
  • bond/blend (70-30 for example)
  • domestic / international (international is crushed but still wary)
  • growth vs value

I’m leaning towards the following targets

  • small cap
  • value

TIA!

Phil / WPM-

Do you like them for a new trade here? I already have GOLD short puts. Thx!

Are the links to charts2.finviz.com supposed to appear as embedded charts? In this comment, they’re all showing up only as links for me:

PFE

QSR

https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=qsr%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l

SKT

https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=skt%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l

T

TD

https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=td%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l

TUP

VALE

YETI

About your site. Since there’s no chat box for your tech guy anymore, I’m posting here.

Do you know that you don’t have to login to read all the posts ? You can’t comment, that’s all.

Any chance that new posts can go at the end ? It’s really annoying to have to refresh.

And about refresh. Accessing your site incognito and not logged in gives a lightning fast refresh so your problem is your backend function to lookup user id. Make sure you have the database on the same computer or at least the same network segment.

Phil, not angry you only try to breathe life in a dead horse

I just have a hart time to understand the new site. My post of 11.59 is just above 1020 good morning at 8.44. Possible my compu had to much to drink 🙄 

Time stamp is correct.. You have to refresh to get it in the right chronological order.

Yes but you have to go to the top to enter an other comment

Super annoying. I’ve started hitting refresh every time I see that there’s a new posting. That way I see them in order BUT I will miss any replies to posts that’s not at the end. This will work for me for now with the amount of posts we have nowadays. If we go back to the “good old days” it would be very difficult to keep up.

This is most likely a configuration issue on the back end system. They just need to find it in the configuration file and change it.

So again I am above 1020 so I have to refresh every time?

Yes.

Phil. Sorry may be you missed my previous comment, reposting:

Good Morning
Phil. What do you think about SWK ? Beaten down after earnings it is almost at covid lows
Thanks

I hope PARA goes to $2 so I can buy the company and make my own movies! The hating on it is relentless which makes me suspicious but still worried for earnings.

BABA on delisting list, per Bloomberg

Hi Phil, I’m trying to manage my pre split SQQQ position. I currently have the Jan.2023 (1) 6 (6.53) / 16(3.85) BCS and 20 short 2023 (1) 8 (2.70)puts. Should I sell the long call and let the short call and put expire?
TIA

Phil / BABA – I think the risk reward is worse ( unless this is posturing)

Alibaba Group has moved a step closer toward getting booted off US stock exchanges because American inspectors are unable to access its financial audits. The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday added the largest US-listed Chinese company to a growing roster of firms that face removal because of Beijing’s refusal to permit American officials to review their auditors’ work. The publication of the businesses’ names, which was required by a 2020 law, starts a three-year clock to a final delisting.