What a nice 4 weeks it has been!
As you can see from the chart, we’re up 10% in July and up 15.6% since we tested 11,000 (the Weak Bounce Line) in early June. As we expected, AAPL has given us the final push we needed from big tech and AMZN helped as well last night and thank goodness INTC is now “little tech” because they are down about 10% this morning after a terrible report.
We had flipped bullish in our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) to take advantage of the dip and, since then, we have blasted higher but now we have to consider whether this rally is likely to continue or whether we should be locking in these gains while we can. To do that, we need to consider what lies ahead.
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- Covid is at 130,000 cases per day in the US – that’s 15% (1/6) of our population annually – just under a very-concerning (again) 150,000 (20% of the population)
- Putin could do something crazy – that’s a constant problem.
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- Oil is up at $98.55 at the moment and Nat Gas is $8.31 – could be worse, could be better.
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- The Dollar is at 106 – easing off from the highs. In fact, the Dollar fell 1.5% in the past two days and the S&P rose 4% – that strong correlation continues so we have to consider whether we think the Dollar will be stronger or weaker next week.
- Next week, we have Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and they’ve been running hot about 350,000 – which strengthens the Dollar as there is new demand for Dollars to pay new workers. We will also get Consumer Credit next Friday and the reports from AXP, V and MA suggest this will be a strong number – also demands more Dollars.
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- PMI, ISM and Construction Spending on Tuesday
- PMI & ISM Services and Factory Orders on Wednesday
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So the Dollar has no reason to pull back next week so how about earnings?
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- Monday: ATVI, AFL, CAR, SPG, RIG, VNO
- Tuesday: ARNC, BP, CAT, CMI, DD, RACE, HUN, IGT, JBLU, KBR, KKR, MAR, MLCO, TAP, PEG, SEE, SPWR, UBER, AMD, ABNB, CZR, CHK, DENN, EA, FNF, GILD, MSTR, OXY, PYPL, PRU, SOFI, SBUX, TEX
- Wednesday: AMRN, BWA, BCO, CVS, EXC, GNRC, LL, MRNA, NYT, SMG, SUN, TUP, UAA, UTHR, YUM, ALB, ALL, BKNG, CLX, EBAY, ETD, FSR, IR, MRO, MED, MET, MGM, MTG, PAA, RYN, RCII, HOOD, TWO, WU, YELL
- Thursday: APD, BABA, ATI, APO, CNQ, LNG, CIM, CI, COP, CEG, CROX, LLY, FIS, ITT, JCI, K, MIDD, NRG, PZZA, PARA, PENN, QSR, SEAS, SHAK, STWD, W, YETI, AMC, AMGN, BYND, CVNA, ED, DASH, EOG, EXPE, GPRO, LYV, LYFT, PLUG, PSA, RMAX, SWN, SU, SPCE, WBD, WYNN, YELP
- Friday: CGC, CNK, DKNG, FYBR, GOGO, GT, WDC
I don’t see any particularly derailing data but also nothing particularly good and the Dollar will rise so we can expect a pullback or flattening next week as earnings don’t look too dangerous but not too many big upside surprises are likely either.
So it looks like we’ll be reviewing our Member Portfolios and looking for things we can cap (sell short calls against) – for income and protection and we’ll probably make some minor adjustments in the Short-Term Portfolio (STP) to get a little more bearish into the weekend. If there’s an upside surprise – we have PLENTY of longs that will already benefit.
Have a great weekend,
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- Phil
Good Morning.
I love the educational posts! Great work teaching us how to fish…
Phil . BABA – They announced they will be doing a listing in HK, which I think bears poorly for the SEC negotiations on delisting here. There was another note that indicated the China was considering putting companies into tiers based on the amount of sensitive data…. most to lease… BABA would be int he most sensitive to no SEC access. This all bear poorly…. I think November essentially starts the countdown on delisting. Should we be bailing on this stock, or are I missing something. This is not about business but government….
good morning well the rich are certainly doing well
Hermes posts strong sales and profit growth; The French luxury goods company reported strong sales in the second quarter, up 26 percent to 2.7 billion euros, while achieving record operating profitability in the first half of the year, topping 42 percent of revenues for the first time
Luxury British carmaker Bentley first-half operating profit more than doubled, boosted by increased customization of cars as sales rose significantly in Europe and Britain despite ongoing global economic uncertainty
Luxury eyewear company EssilorLuxottica raised its operating margins substantially in the first half of the year, it said on Friday, despite a challenging environment
Phil// I have the below position
INTC
2024 20 40/55 BCS
2024 5 Sold naked 45 puts.
WBA
2023 10 45/52.5 BCS
2023 5 Sold naked 40 puts
WPM
2023 10 35/50 BCS
GOLD
2023 5 sold naked 20 puts.
What should I do with these positions? Thanks
LQDA Pharm’s recommendation. You can buy the stock at $4.97 then sell the Jan23 $5 calls for $2.2 and the $2.50 puts for .55 or .60 not too shabby. Perhaps only sell half of the calls for some upside
GLUE the Jan23 $7.50 puts can be sold for $1.10
phil
do you like the intc 2024 35 puts at about 5.30
Good Morning
Phil. What do you think about SWK ? Beaten down after earnings it is almost at covid lows
Thanks
bhc 2024 5dollar puts are selling for 2.50 with the stock at 4.67 . please correct me if im wrong but isnt that an impossible to lose money situation even if it goes to zero?
Good morning!
Personal income, Spending, etc all good and prices not higher than expected so good.
Chicago PMI 5% lower at 52.1 vs 56 last time and 55.8 expected by Economorons – over 50 is expansion though.
More importantly, Consumer Sentiment flattened out at 51.5 vs 51.1 last time and 51.3 expected – go delusion!
I said that last time – we’re not likely to go worse than 2008/9 – things are simply not that bad. At that time, unemployment was like 23M people, not 1.3M – and housing was down 50% and entire industries were collapsing. Is that how things are now? If not, then Sentiment has run way too far down vs reality.
Thanks Pman.
BABA/Batman – I don’t think listing in HK is a bad sign but it’s a good backup plan. As far as I understand, the Chines companies are making good headway with their Government and the SEC. I think delisting is priced in – success is not so it’s a good risk/reward balance.
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=baba%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
Luxury/Stock – Well the rich have gotten much richer and Bentley only sells 14,659 cars in a year (it’s very exact when it’s that few) to the World’s 8,000,000 people in the Top 0.1%. Business is bound to be good…
INTC/Rookie – If you intend to stick with them, you have to take advantage of the down moves.
LQDA/Stock – Good spread. I’d start with 1/2 on the puts.
INTC/Tommy – Sure I like INTC at net $29.70! They are having issues in the PC segment, which is being hit by work at home as well as parts shortages which delay fully-assembled PCs (with Intel chips) from shipping. It will work out one day but certainly not today. Full year guidance is down from $74Bn to $66Bn so about 10%. They’ll be lucky to make $10Bn this year but $35 is a $165Bn valuation and last year they made $19Bn and $20Bn all 3 years before so, as long as you are in it for the long haul – it’s a great time to get in.
PS – They had already planned to make only $13Bn due to plant spending – not because of sales issues – the sales issues are knocking off another $3Bn.
re bhc sorry disregard that comment didnt take enuf time to think about it lol
Math is hard…
WBA stands for BBB bullshit buffles brains!!!!!
Good Morning.
Little different question regarding 401K.
I’m looking to deploy cash buildup but wondering what fund types to target.
I’m leaning towards the following targets
TIA!
Phil / WPM-
Do you like them for a new trade here? I already have GOLD short puts. Thx!
In the LTP, we have the following uncovered or under-covered positions:
BA
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ba%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
BABA
BIG
BNTX
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=bntx%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
CAKE
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=cake%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
CLF
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=clf%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
DIS
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=dis%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
DOW
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=dow%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
EBAY
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ebay%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
GOLD
HBI
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=hbi%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
INTC – oops!
JPM
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=jpm%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
LABU
LOGI
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=logi%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
MO
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=mo%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
MT
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=mt%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
MU
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=mu%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
PARA
PFE
QSR
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=qsr%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
SKT
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=skt%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
T
TD
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=td%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
TUP
VALE
YETI
The ones with charts have already made moves up so there’s 16 that we might consider covering. That puts cash in the portfolio (which we don’t need) and adds protection against a pullback.
The other ways to go would be buying back some short puts to reduce exposure (now that we know which sectors are having a rough time) and, of course, there’s always adjusting the STP, which we’ll look at next.
Are the links to charts2.finviz.com supposed to appear as embedded charts? In this comment, they’re all showing up only as links for me:
They should but it seems erratic whether they display or not. I imagine it’s because they are dynamic charts, not fixed.
We’re looking for a better chat box but they don’t seem to make one. Even 3rd parties.
WBA/Yodi – Did they sleep with your wife or something? You seem very angry with them…
401K/Jeddah – Lots of value bargains not to be ignored. I’m sticking to blue chips though as they can weather a Recession – if there is one to come. Bonds are still silly as the Fed is still raising rates. If you are limited to generic ETFs, then value would be my pick. Some Biotech if you can – beaten-down sector.
WPM/EMike – I love them as an inflation hedge anyway. Nice pullback here to take advantage of.
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=wpm\&p=w&s=y
In the LTP, we bought 70 2024 $30 calls for $9.45 (now $7.85) and sold 50 of the 2024 $47 calls for $6.54 (now $2.38) and we sold 20 of the 2024 $35 puts for $5.50 (now $6.35). The short calls were crushed so we’re on track and I like the trade as is at net $18,325 on the $119,000 spread – that’s a lot of upside!
About your site. Since there’s no chat box for your tech guy anymore, I’m posting here.
Do you know that you don’t have to login to read all the posts ? You can’t comment, that’s all.
Any chance that new posts can go at the end ? It’s really annoying to have to refresh.
And about refresh. Accessing your site incognito and not logged in gives a lightning fast refresh so your problem is your backend function to lookup user id. Make sure you have the database on the same computer or at least the same network segment.
I’ll pass that along to Bill, thanks.
Phil, not angry you only try to breathe life in a dead horse
I just have a hart time to understand the new site. My post of 11.59 is just above 1020 good morning at 8.44. Possible my compu had to much to drink 🙄
Time stamp is correct.. You have to refresh to get it in the right chronological order.
Yes but you have to go to the top to enter an other comment
Super annoying. I’ve started hitting refresh every time I see that there’s a new posting. That way I see them in order BUT I will miss any replies to posts that’s not at the end. This will work for me for now with the amount of posts we have nowadays. If we go back to the “good old days” it would be very difficult to keep up.
This is most likely a configuration issue on the back end system. They just need to find it in the configuration file and change it.
These threads might help get the comments in the right order
https://wpdiscuz.com/community/f-a-q/how-to-change-the-comment-ordering/
https://wpdiscuz.com/docs/wpdiscuz-7/plugin-settings/comment-thread-displaying/
I passed it along to Bill but I know we’ve looked at wpdiscuz already.
So again I am above 1020 so I have to refresh every time?
Yes.
Understanding/Yodi – This is how WordPress works. A lot of the customizations we did took a long time to write back in the day and they will take time to implement again. Some are not possible as WP has added a lot of security that our prior alterations violated. Hacking is a much bigger problem now than it used to be.
I’m sure Gardling will be happy to take the customization on as a side project, right? 👼
As far as I understand it, WP puts new comments on top for some amount of time (not replies to comments but brand new comments) and then it drops them back to the bottom after that. For me, new comments are all yellow until I mouse over them or refresh – so it’s pretty easy for me to see what’s new. What really pisses me off is having to find the comment box every time (in the middle) and also my lack of text colors and shading.
Oh yes, and the TERRIBLE way it handles graphics now – also a security issue.
Anyway, market holding up, don’t want to do anything drastic with the portfolios as things are going so well and not too likely they reverse over the weekend unless NoKo or Russia start dropping nukes…
Oil rejected at $100 again.
Phil. Sorry may be you missed my previous comment, reposting:
Good Morning
Phil. What do you think about SWK ? Beaten down after earnings it is almost at covid lows
Thanks
I hope PARA goes to $2 so I can buy the company and make my own movies! The hating on it is relentless which makes me suspicious but still worried for earnings.
PARA/Jeddah – It baffles me but a lot of streaming companies are struggling (CMCSA just disappointed) so they traders have very low expectations for PARA as well.
SWK/Rag – Yes, sorry. As soon as I skip past you you can assume I missed it. SWK is another LEVI-like company – people are going to need tools, regardless. Also, while women hate it when you give them a new vacuum cleaner for Christmas – give a guy a power tool and he’s happy as a clam!
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=swk\&p=w&s=y
$95 is $12Bn market cap and they usually make $1.5Bn. After this Qs miss, they are expecting more like $9Bn for the year but that’s still only 15x. They have a cost-cutting plan to make up from it and will likely come out stronger but I wouldn’t expect much progress until next year. The downgrade police can get them to $80 but a very strong buy there.
Things are going too well to hedge at the moment – we can consider today’s rally Monday’s hedge.
LTP is at $2,124,910 – up from $2,046,215 at noon yesterday.
STP at $1,848,560 and that’s up from $1,801,225 yesterday.
Just a touch under $4M – thank you very much – see you in January!
Really, we probably should quit while we’re ahead, but I’ve been saying that since $3M.
BABA on delisting list, per Bloomberg
Hi Phil, I’m trying to manage my pre split SQQQ position. I currently have the Jan.2023 (1) 6 (6.53) / 16(3.85) BCS and 20 short 2023 (1) 8 (2.70)puts. Should I sell the long call and let the short call and put expire?
TIA
BABA/Rn – Then we’ll have to get out, I guess. Not going through that again.
SQQQ/Boomer – I would roll out the long calls to a 2024 normal spread and let the short calls and puts expire. The June 2024 $30 ($21)/50 ($16) bull call spread is just $5, and it’s $10 in the money, if you can get $2.60 for the old $6s that’s $2.40 more for another 18 months of insurance and you’ll get that back when you sell the next set of short calls.
Things are still looking good with 30 mins left. STP at $1,869,030 so keeps going up.
Tuesday I said:
But we were at $3.62M at the time, now more like $3.9+ so do we need to spend money on the hedges? Seems silly to roll the short $70 calls higher when SQQQ is at $40 AND we think the Nas is recovering.
Phil / BABA – I think the risk reward is worse ( unless this is posturing)
Alibaba Group has moved a step closer toward getting booted off US stock exchanges because American inspectors are unable to access its financial audits. The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday added the largest US-listed Chinese company to a growing roster of firms that face removal because of Beijing’s refusal to permit American officials to review their auditors’ work. The publication of the businesses’ names, which was required by a 2020 law, starts a three-year clock to a final delisting.
I agree, starting to look like it is more likely to get delisted than not.