Author Archive for Chart School

Russell 2000 Under Modest Pressure

Courtesy of Declan.

Glass Half Full or Half Empty? There wasn’t a whole lot to today’s action.  The Russell 2000 had the worst of it, but it still managed to stage a small recovery into the close. The index finished above support with technicals negative. A bullish rally would nicely set up a swing low and could see a run to test 1,414. Shorts would want to keep stops tight (measure risk) to the 50-day MA at 1,376.






There wasn’t a whole lot to say about other indices. Most finished slightly down on (significantly) lighter volume, with indecision the real outcome of today’s action.




The S&P continues to linger around its 20-day MA. Tehnicals were unchanged with positive accumulation On-Balance-Volume offset by the ‘sell’ trigger in MACD.





And it was a similar story for the Nasdaq, although the index is outperforming the S&P, with the S&P outperforming the Russell 2000. While my weekend post pointed to breadth weakness for the Nasdaq, Nasdaq price action sides more in favour of bulls and buyers.





For tomorrow, bulls are likely to try and push on after indices (the Russell 2000 in particular) didn’t see any acceleration in selling. What selling there was came on light volume. If buying, stops go on a break of (last week’s) swing lows.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Tentative Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

Not a whole lot to say about today. The Semiconductor Index gained nearly 1% as it pushed a new multi-year high, but most of the gains were achieved by the open and it didn’t add too much after that. However, it did keep shorts at bay for another day (resistance remains former channel support).






Aside from Semiconductors, there wasn’t too much to add. The S&P had one of the least exciting days in a long time. Technicals were unchanged by the very flat day.





The Nasdaq made slightly bigger gains, but not enough to change the technical picture, nor the context of where the index stands now.





The Russell 2000 didn’t quite make the same gains as the Semiconductor Index, but it kept with the notion of building support at the swing low.





If bears are to strike I would expect a big one day sell off; a hectic first half-hour of trading which doesn’t recover. The bullish outlook is likely going to be more like today with small, insignificant gains, which add up over time. My bias expects a bearish sell off, but I have been wrong on this rally for too long.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Mar 12, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

A rare down week in 2017; the first after six weeks of gains.  The market needed one.  That said – barely… the S&P 500 was down 0.4% and NASDAQ 0.2%.  Monday and Tuesday were the first back to back down sessions since last January!  Energy stocks and a drop in oil were one of the main culprits as was the healthcare industry after a vague tweet by President Trump about drug prices dropping in the future.

Oil futures sank by more than 5% Wednesday to post the lowest finish of the year after U.S. government data revealed a weekly jump in crude supplies that lifted total inventories to another record.  The decline in oil prices accelerated Friday after active rig-count data showed an increase for the eighth week in a row.

One of our favorite indicators – the NYSE McClellan Oscillator – flashed a bit of a warning last week; and was very red this week as well so from a technical perspective when you have a divergence like this it calls for some caution.

In economic news, paycheck-processing firm ADP reported Wednesday the private sector added 298,000 jobs in February.  That was followed up Friday by the government’s employment data that showed gains of 235,000 jobs in February, while the January number was revised to show payrolls rose 238,000 (vs 227,000 initially estimated), pushing the unemployment rate to 4.7%. Hourly pay increased 2.8% from February 2016 to February 2017, up from 2.6% in the prior month. .  This should cement a Fed rate hike next week.

Thursday, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as had been widely expected. In a statement, the bank repeated that it expects rates to remain “at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon” of its bond-buying program, which is scheduled to run through at least December.  So the central bank foot is still on the accelerator in Europe.

There was a lot of talk about the anniversary of the bull market bottom on March 9, 2009.  The…
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Small Gains On Accumulation

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets finished the week with an accumulation day on Friday, with bulls coming in at 20-day MAs for the S&P and Nasdaq.  The Russell 2000 also dug in, although buyers worked with no clear support level, but Friday’s finish may offer an opportunity for a swing low to develop if there is some upside on Monday.




The S&P worked a rally off its 20-day MA, but did so in the absence of accumulation. The ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD hasn’t been reversed, but other technicals are still healthy.






The Nasdaq experienced a similar bounce as the S&P, but it was able to do so on higher volume accumulation.





The Russell 2000 is working a potential swing low with support pinned to a minor support level from February.





However, all Nasdaq breadth metrics are net bearish, which would suggest further weakness for the parent Nasdaq is a strong possibility. This could mean Friday’s gain is a ‘bull’ trap of its own.







As for shorting opportunities, the Semiconductor Index may offer the best risk:reward opportunity. The doji finished just above the last high of 991, but it also closed at former channel support – now resistance. A move to the slower rising trendline is a potential target.





For Monday, shorts can take a look at the Semiconductor Index, while longs can wait and see if there is a further advance for the S&P and Nasdaq from the bounce off its 20-day MA.   With Brexit due to start next week there may be other distractions.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Buyers Come Back To 20-Day MAs

Courtesy of Declan.

With indices experiencing small changes, 20-day MAs are starting to look like a defensive point for bulls to work the next rally.




The Nasdaq finished higher after a defensive push off its 20-day MA. This didn’t make any significant changes to the technical picture, but it does suggest the possibility a new swing low is in play.






It was a similar story for the S&P. It closed on a neutral doji right on its 20-day MA. Technicals are okay, but the MACD trigger ‘sell’ is now well established.





The Dow Jones Index is also at the 20-day MA. It too has a MACD ‘sell’ trigger to overcome, but it has a good past trend to leverage and is close to an On-Balance-Volume ‘sell’ trigger





The Russell 2000 index continues to struggle, but despite a series of losses it’s not yet oversold.  Relative weakness of the index against the Nasdaq took a step lower as the index struggles to attract value buyers. Look for worse to follow.





For tomorrow, look for further positive actions from Large Caps and Tech. Small Caps are struggling for attention, but if buyers do step in, then Small Caps could make the biggest relative gain of all indices.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Crude Bartels Cycle review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

crude-bartels-cycle-reviewCrude oil has slumped on lack of world demand. If this slump is a continuation of the down trend and confirming cycle action then up swings are to be sold.



Let price fall further, watch for a weak bounce then review your trade options. Price falling from upper resistance is not a confirmation of a well supported demand story for higher prices, it is a story that the shorts have built up a position to take prices down.



Below is a chart showing off readtheticker.com Bartels cycle tools. Bartels is used to find the dominate cycle in a time series.



Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Crude




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”I believe that the public wants to be led, to be instructed, to be told what to do. They want reassurance. They will always move en masse, a mob, a herd, a group, because people want the safety of human company. They are afraid to stand alone because they want to be safely included within the herd, not to be the lone calf standing on the desolate, dangerous, wolf-patrolled prairie of contrary opinion.”..



Jesse Livermore





..”The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”..



George Soros







..”A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim”..



Kenneth Chang





Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.



Bruce Kovner





..”The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule”



Warren Buffett











Small Caps Accelerate Losses

Courtesy of Declan.

A mixed day with most indices experiencing minimal change. The only index to come out feeling blue was the Russell 2000.  Yesterday’s selling confirmed a ‘bull trap’ and today saw some follow through with sellers continuing to pressure. The next rally will be critical; will it be attacked shorts? Or will bulls breeze past 1,414? Other indices will be looking to the Russell 2000 for leads.






Next on the chopping block is the S&P.  Today’s losses were relatively minor, but the index did rack up a distribution day – one of five consecutive loss days for the index. Bulls can look to the 20-day MA at 2,355 as a possible launch point for a rally.





The Nasdaq actually managed a tiny gain – which meant today’s higher volume counts as accumulation. But really, it was another day of holding the status quo and staying out of the limelight.  There is bearish creep with the MACD trigger ‘sell’, but there is also a relative improvement against its peers.





However, supporting breadth metrics continue to deteriorate. The latest is the Nasdaq Summation Index which is now net bearish in technical strength.





For tomorrow, look for a bullish response in the S&P, but failing that, watch for further losses in the Russell 2000 as profit taking looks to accelerate.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Small Caps Slow Morph a Bull Trap

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another quiet day for most indices, but the Russell 2000 dropped into a potential ‘bull trap’ situation.  The Russell 2000 experienced further weakness with a ‘sell’ trigger in the +DI/-DI with Slow Stochastics [39,1] just above the bullish midline – now the last line defense of the net bullish picture for this index.




The S&P suffered small losses, but it did close with a MACD trigger ‘sell’ – the first such turn to weakness in supporting technicals.





The Nasdaq also finished with a doji (like the S&P), but it’s just above its 20-day MA in what could be a retracement buy opportunity – despite the ‘sell’ trigger in relative performance against the S&P, or the MACD trigger ‘sell’.





After the Percentage of the Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA turned net bearish on Friday, the Nasdaq Summation Index is getting close to doing likewise – likely tomorrow.  This will further pressure Nasdaq bulls.





Further selling on Wednesday will likely force the Nasdaq into a net negative bearish trend as supporting breadth metrics feel the pain.  The best long term (short) opportunity will likely come from rallies in the Russell 2000, but the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 could also benefit.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Status Quo

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn’t a whole lot of change in markets with the Russell 2000 edging back to support. Small Caps remains the most vulnerable to an increase in profit taking with the 50-day MA playing as the last line of support. If there is a loss in such support watch for it to spread to other indices which are holding up better.






The Nasdaq finished with a narrow range doji just above the 20-day MA. Volume was down, while the MACD and On-Balance-Volume remain in ‘sell’ mode.





The S&P was another narrow range doji, except without the technical weakness in the Nasdaq.





The Semiconductor Index remains outside of the rising channel as it morphs into a trading range.





Will tomorrow offer a more defensive action?




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Mar 5, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Hello readers! Please note…

This week’s recap is sponsored by Born To Sell – “Earn extra income on stocks you own with our covered call screener and portfolio management software.”

———————

A very busy week indeed!

Trump has basically turned into the new Ben Bernanke – whatever he whispers the market takes as face value as bullish and runs up.  We saw that Wednesday after the address to Congress where there was a big spike the following day.

In what many saw as a rather reserved speech, the U.S. president said he would push for around $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, and promised “massive tax relief” for the middle class and tax cuts for corporations. Otherwise, the speech was lacking in firm details about his economic plans.

However, with averages SO extended over any moving average it was very difficult for bulls to build on that push up as we have the “rubber band effect” where indexes can only go so far from their trend.

Last week we showed that the S&P 500 had been so strong in February that is had been riding the 5 day moving average almost the entire month.   Tuesday of this past week was the first close below the 5 day in nearly 4 weeks.  Then Wednesday we had a spike back above.  Another concept some technicians use is “Bollinger bands” which I included in the chart below in red.  This is to represent the “rubber band effect” – once an index price detaches so far from even something so aggressive as the 5 day moving average it is very difficult to really build on that.  So Wednesday you can see the S&P 500 hit the top bollinger band and then fell back.  Just another fun feature for those who like other indicators.

Another major news story of the week was the IPO of Snap , the parent company of SnapChat – making another billionaire out there; one who dates Miranda Kerr.  It’s a good life for a company that didn’t have a dollar of revenue until…2015.  And had humble beginnings as a…
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Phil's Favorites

Republicans fumble ACA repeal: Expert reaction

 

Republicans fumble ACA repeal: Expert reaction

Courtesy of Richard Arenberg, Brown University and Christopher Sebastian Parker, University of Washington

Editor’s note: The fight didn’t last long. Moments before a scheduled vote on March 24, House Speaker Paul Ryan pulled the bill that would have repealed the Affordable Care Act. It was a surprisingly swift defeat for a legislative priority talked up by Republicans since the day Obamacare first passed. We asked congressional scholars what the retreat means – and what comes next.

Trump legslative agenda now in serious doubt

...



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Zero Hedge

Trump On What Happens Next: "Obamacare Will Explode"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After the Republican ObamaCare replacement bill failed to generate enough Republican support to pass a House vote Friday, President Trump announced his planned path forward: "Let ObamaCare explode." 

Having insisted there is no Plan B in case the bill failed, the White House found itself in a situation with no backup plan now. "We're going to go back and figure out what the next steps are," House Speaker Paul Ryan told reporters at a press conference just minutes after the shocking news that the GOP was pulling the bill hit the wires. Ryan called the failure of his bill "a setback, no two ways about it." ...



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ValueWalk

Top 5 Myths About Medicare

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Google Trends data shows Health Care queries in the US is a reaching an all-time high in search engines (peaking at over 100k search volume). As health care changes are currently being discussed by lawmakers, Medicare coverage searches having increased over 250% within the last 7 days. Medicare Part B, which charges beneficiaries’ premium based on their income, has jumped the top search term in Google for Medicare related queries.

United Medicare Advisors has identified the The 5 Medicare Myths that Cause Confusion Among Seniors...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Executives Are Confident That the Future Is Bright (Bloomberg)

Oil prices are down nearly 10 percent over the past month, leading some to wonder if we're set for a resumption of the plunge seen between 2014 and early 2016. Executives at oil companies, however, are optimistic.

Trump’s Misplaced Priorities Imperil His Economic Agenda (Bloomberg)

Let’s begin by stating the obvious: My priorities are different than yours or Paul Ryan’s or the president’s. We all have a different agenda, motivated by differ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fund flows of this size could mark a top, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

A year ago flows into ETFs were extremely low, actually the lowest in years, as many stock market indices were testing rising support off the 2009 lows. The crowd wasn’t adding money to ETFs as lows were taking place. In hindsight, this was a mistake by the majority. Below I look at ETF flows over the past few years with an inset chart of the S&P 500.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Nearly three months into this year, fund flows have surpassed mone...



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Chart School

Indecision Strikes

Courtesy of Declan.

It was no real surprise to see indices slow down in their recovery. Across the board doji mark a balance between buyers and sellers. The one index which bucked the trend a little was the Russell 2000. It staged a modest recovery which brought it back to former support turned resistance. However, technicals remain firmly bearish, and will stay this way even if there are additional gains.

The S&P closed on light volume with a doji below resistance. The narrow intraday trading range offers a low risk opportunity with a break and ...

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Members' Corner

Natterings

Check out some new posts from our friend The Nattering Naybob. 

The Big Lebowski Sequel?

Taking a "resp-shit" or "potty break" from "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo"... One of our favorite scenes from the 1998 cult classic The Big Lebowski, the ash can scene where Walter Subchak (John Goodman) eulogizes the departed Donnie (Steve Buscemi) with Jeffrey Lebowski (Jeff Bridges) looking on.

Keep reading: ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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