Author Archive for Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 3, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After the NYSE McClellan Oscillator flipped back positive, we went out of our cautious stance and this week rewarded the bulls with significant gains Tuesday and Thursday.  Only the guilty plea of Michael Flynn could slow down momentum, and even that was only an hour Friday morning before the bulls stampeded right back.  With the tax reform plan looking very likely now, the market is rejoicing.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now at it’s longest monthly win streak (8 in a row!) in 22 years.  That said there was a bit of a hiccup in the NASDAQ Wednesday as mega cap stocks took a hit – apparently they can’t go straight to the moon forever.

Is that a potentially bearish “double top” in the Apple (AAPL) chart?  Naaah – that would be a negative thing, and negative things aren’t allowed in the Trump market.

For the month the S&P 500 gained 2.8% while the NASDAQ jumped 2.2%.  For the S&P 500 that is also 8 months of gains in a row; the last time that happened was the heady days of 2007 — right before the crash.  But no worries.  For the week the S&P 500 gained 1.5% while the NASDAQ slipped 0.6% on that mega cap tech stock weakness.

Frank Cappelleri, a technical strategist at Instinet LLC, said the tech rally was getting “long in the tooth ”with the NASDAQ 100 having gained for nine straight weeks, the longest since early 2012, and that the selloff should be viewed within the context of rotation out of large caps and growth stocks into financials, value and small cap shares.

Wonder if the Federal Reserve is scratching their head about creating a new bubble.  On Monday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan noted concerns about potential financial imbalances, observing that the stock market has now gone 12 months without a 3% decline. “This is extraordinarily unusual,” he said.

Jerome Powell, President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Federal Reserve, testified at a Senate
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Indices Stage Intraday Recoveries in Wide Range Day

Courtesy of Declan.

Volatility took a tick higher with profit taking sweeping across the broad before buyers zipped it all back up. Trump’s Russian investigation will add a level of uncertainty to the Tax Cut rally and markets may take another trip into Friday’s intraday low; should markets deliver a lower close Monday then it could turn into an ugly week as traders will need to defend Friday’s lows 

The Semiconductor Index was hardest hit last week but it was able to dig in at its 50-day MA and finish the week above this key moving average. If there is going to be a rally I would look to this index to deliver simply because it suffered the hardest level of selling and should be the most amenable to a recovery rally.

Large Caps didn’t escape the selling but unlike other indices they didn’t drop into prior advances. The S&P and Dow (the latter in particular) are well above support and still high enough to keep longs predominantly in control with bullish technicals.

The Russell 2000 tagged its 50-day MA at the low of the day and some lucky traders will be holding profits on buying the test. Technicals are a little mixed with a ‘sell’ trigger in the ADX offset by bullish MACD, Stochastics and Relative Performance (vs the Nasdaq).

The Nasdaq reversed off converged resistance from the primary and secondary (accelerated) channel. Friday’s intraday low did enough to tag secondary channel support which may be the spring board for a rally. However, another run at secondary channel support on Monday is likely to lead to a channel breakdown and set up for a move to primary channel support (thin hashed blue line).

In terms of the long term charts, there was a picture perfect bounce off channel support for the relative relationship between Transports and Dow Jones Industrials creating an environment for a ‘bear trap’. If this can follow through higher then it will be good news for Transports (and the economy at…
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The Dow Jones Roar Repeats

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

the-dow-jones-roar-repeatsAre we near the end yet? The mighty Dow Jones jumps higher.



The news of Trumps tax plan confirms the higher prices.



Now with rising US 10 year, 2 year and 5 year rate will the talking heads say rising interest rates confirm a rising stock market and all is well. Just one thing though, it is now more expensive to do a share buybacks, a few years back the cost was near zero, now corporations have to pay real money for finance. Add to this existing debt is going to be more expensive after re financing, maybe the next wave of funding will be via the block chain (hey its started already, and just imagine if all those CDS had a block chain token, counter parties could be exposed on an exchange).



The chart for the day.





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INDU




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities.”..



Jesse Livernore Trading Rule





..The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell”..



John Templeton





..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate the value of that, but they’re not designed to take care of social needs”..



George Soros







..”A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim”..



Kenneth Chang





..”The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing”..



Philip Fisher











Profit Taking Sweeps Tech While Large Caps Gain

Courtesy of Declan.

There was a clear shift in market behaviour as Large Caps enjoyed the fruit of renewed buying as Tech indices (Semiconductors mostly) felt the heat of profit taking.

After weeks of tight gains in the Semiconductor Index it was an easy turn for profit takers to come in and push the market down; in the absence of logical support it was going to be a hard task to pinpoint where potential depend may lurk outside of 1,150.  The 50-day MA may provide one such escape but there isn’t a whole lot to suggest it may play as support.

The Nasdaq peeled away from resistance but it made a sufficient recovery to suggest it might yet make a fresh challenge on newly created channel resistance. Yesterday’s action still gives shorts something to work with but the risk of these trades getting stopped out (on a return above 6,900) remains quite high.

The Nasdaq 100 has a broader channel and it remains on course to tag such resistance. Technicals are mostly positive with the exception of the ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD.

It was a different story for Large Caps. In a clear divergence to other indices both the S&P and Dow Jones Industrial average accelerated gains in what looks to be an early parabolic move – or at least an acceleration of the prior trend.  For the S&P this came with higher volume accumulation but not a marked improvement in relative performance (vs the Russell 2000).

Although Large Caps have enjoyed a marked improvement against Tech averages. The Dow has enjoyed particular success since Trump’s election.

Only the Russell 2000 was a little disappointing. The index had gained as other indices did yesterday but it struggled to hold early intraday gains. It finished with an inverse doji which may mark a reversal top; although losses starting in the morning would be required to confirm such a possibility.

For tomorrow, watch for a weak…
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Large Caps (Financials) Make The Jump Against Tech

Courtesy of Declan.

In the end, it wasn’t Tech to surprise with an acceleration past its bullish rising channel but the S&P and Dow with fresh breakouts.




A confluence of positive data fueled the advance in Large Caps along with a dollop of short covering.  Tuesday’s action ranks as a breakout in this indices and brings into play new support levels should profit-takers come in to take advantage of the gains.  The only downside for the S&P was the continued downtrend in relative performance against Small Caps – suggesting the real money is flowing into more speculative issues.






The Dow managed a more traditional breakout but gains were not enough to see a new MACD trigger ‘buy’ but it did see a relative performance gain against Tech Stocks. Price action is to be respected and this could mark a new upward channel.





The Russell 2000 was the real winner of the day. Yesterday’s selling had signaled the start of something worse, particularly with the potential for a double top but today’s buying put paid to that. Short covering likely helped the push but it was still a clear breakout, leaving 1,520 as new support. Better still was the uptick in relative performance which opens up the possibility for a measured move – effectively a follow through from the August-October rally opening up for a target of 1,615





This just leaves the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 which had a quiet day. Given the action all around it was non-event for the Nasdaq. Oddly enough, despite the gains elsewhere and the fact it was nestled against channel resistance it still wasn’t able to breakout. Shorts may yet get something out of these indices.





For tomorrow, watch for premarket action. Any weakness will open up a shorting opportunity in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. While a positive open won’t be an attractive short term play given today’s gains the Russell 2000 is perhaps the best long play given the ‘surprise’ reaction.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Tuesday, 24 October 2017, 01:47:04 AM

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Comment: RTT: SO NOT NORMAL .. even human on the planet should see this as a smoking bomb!

Date Found: Tuesday, 24 October 2017, 01:49:31 AM

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Comment: Jeffrey Gundlach and the Weight of a Global U.S. Market on video www.zerohedge.com…

Date Found: Tuesday, 24 October 2017, 06:21:20 PM

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Comment: Does china like bitcoin ? NO as it reduces their power, but Blockchain is great as it ends Corruption youtu.be/pK9Sgo6IVm4

Date Found: Wednesday, 25 October 2017, 04:24:31 PM

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Comment: RTT: The herd is fully invested, the hard will be moved!

Date Found: Wednesday, 25 October 2017, 06:10:21 PM

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Comment: ..”As The BBC reports, the rise in New Zealand house prices over recent years has been fuelled by strong immigration, low interest rates and limited housing supplies.”… WHAT BUBBLE ?? Now the new Govt, wants to stop Foreign investors, what could go wrong? SHORT NZD !

Date Found: Thursday, 26 October 2017, 02:47:37 PM

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Comment: ZH: So let’s review. Longer term, the Chinese are telling you to be wary about a “Minsky moment.” Shorter term, they have been actively engaged in keeping the markets propped up, but that support is ending.

Date Found: Thursday, 26 October 2017, 04:08:29 PM

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Comment: US Household Wealth – stocks, bonds, housing etc… – is now 5 times greater than Nominal GDP RTT: This is how the middle class is robbed, massive boom and bust swings that trick them!

Date Found: Thursday, 26 October 2017, 11:41:06 PM

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Nasdaq Tags Channel Resistance

Courtesy of Declan.

The post-Thanksgiving recovery offered some modest profit taking with Semiconductors experiencing the worst of the selling but the Nasdaq tagging resistance before reversing.  It offered the clearest ‘sell’/profit take trigger after the August support ‘buy’ signal. Given action in other indices it could break above resistance, accelerating gains, but taking some profits here would be prudent.






The Semiconductor Index is in need of a more orderly pullback. Since the September breakout it has more or less risen without respite – hogging the 20-day MA – it could do so again but I would look for a test of the 50-day MA, with a loss of the 20-day MA perhaps a shorting opportunity.





The S&P experienced a flat day with minimal intraday spread. Technicals are mixed with a pending MACD ‘buy’ offset by a soon-to-be ‘sell’ in On-Balance-Volume. The ‘bear trap’ remains dominant which means bulls have the edge.





The Russell 2000 suffered slightly more selling but in a manner which suggests more may follow. It too has ‘bear trap’ in play but this will be negated on a loss of 1,455.  Technicals are positive with the exception of relative performance which has been losing ground to Tech averages since October and looks to be entering a second phase of loses.





For tomorrow, keep an eye out for a further expansion of today’s selling. However, the Nasdaq is ready to surprise and is well placed to clear channel resistance; such a break would also come with short covering, further fueling gains.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Nov 26, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Thanksgiving week is usually great for bulls and this last week was no exception.  Gobble gobble. Most of the gain for the week was concentrated in the rally Tuesday (in the opening hour!); it was quiet otherwise.   A little post Thanksgiving pop happened Friday morning as well.  And that was your week folks.

News flow was SLOW.  Federal Reserve minutes Wednesday were a “highlight”:

The Fed viewed a “near-term” increase in interest rates as possible but central bank officials also expressed concerns about persistently low inflation, hinting that the bank may dial back its rate increases in 2018. The language from the Fed’s Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting was comparatively softer than in the September discussions, reflecting worries that tepid inflation might also be a result of “developments that could prove more persistent,” according to the Fed minutes.  The minutes also showed that several members worried that keeping interest rates too low could create a financial bubble.

Durable-goods orders fell 1.2% in October, well below the forecast of a 0.7% gain. Excluding transportation orders increased 0.4%.

Random Chinese software stock – congrats if you had the foresight to own it 6 weeks ago. 😀

This is an example of moving averages needing some time to catch up to price… and then “boom”.

I will keep coming back to this housing ETF chart because it’s been so wow.  Forget the 20 day moving average, this ETF has been riding it’s 10 day moving average for nearly 3 months now.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 .. NOT via Jill Mislinski.

It was another great week for emerging stocks – Bespoke has some data on the great year.

Let’s start off with performance and the fact that the largest stocks in the ETF have been on fire this year.  Of the twenty stocks shown, just one- China Mobile (-0.27%)- is down on the year!  Overall, the twenty stocks are up an average of 51.8% YTD with three up by triple-digits and a total of eight up by over 50%!  Keep in mind too,


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Bitcoin vs Gold a Wyckoff Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bitcoin-vs-gold-a-wyckoff-reviewIs this a battle between good and evil, or is it good vs very good.

More from RTT Tv

This is what is known, if you dig deep enough.
1) With out the Chinese power companies supporting bitcoin miners with subsidized electricity it would not be what it is today.
2) Bitcoin is not built with the best code, that is why it takes so long to settle.
3) Bitcoin is a digital product, you can not touch it like gold or silver therefore it can be stolen digitally.
4) The question is Bitcoin like Nokia, just before the smart phone hit the market.

In the gold and silver markets you can bet you will see peer to peer block chain title transfer of physical product outside the LBMA and COMEX futures markets. The ‘peer’ will be either miner, manufacture or investor. This should help find the true price of the metals. The question is now with those holding gold paper contracts from the COMEX or LBMA do they want to get to the true price first to secure large profits before block chain does it for them.

Members who have access to RTT Plus can find more information about bitcoin. Of course right now bitcoin is going up for the same reason Amazon is, and that is the greater fool theory, there is some one out there who will pay a higher price than you.

The video is a Richard Wyckoff chart review.

Disclosure: Own metals, none of Cypto’s.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

“Stock market technique is not an exact science. Stock (and commodities) prices are made by the minds of men (and women). Mechanical trading methods or mathematical formulas cannot compete with good human market judgment.”..

Richard D Wyckoff

..”Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception”..

George Soros

..”Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the


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Happy Thanksgiving :) Friday Should Be A Winner

Courtesy of Declan

Thanksgiving Wednesday was never going to generate an exciting day but it was good to see early week gains retained. Upcoming Thanksgiving Friday is typically a day when Junior traders go wild and decent gains are posted – even if trading volume is light. With last week's lead action I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern was to repeat.

Tech Indices have been leading the charge in recent days and I would look to the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to be the primary chargers on Friday. Technicals are firmly in the green.

The Nasdaq 100 is a little weaker technically with the MACD trigger 'sell' still in play but given it's on the verge of a new 'buy' trigger it's still an attractive trading opportunity.


The S&P posted minor losses but is knocking on the door of new highs. It's still a few days from a new MACD trigger 'buy' but should this occur then look for a new wave of buying.
 


The Russell 2000 has enjoyed a very strong run of form but it may be a little stretched to keep this going on into Friday. Technicals are all net green so should this ease back into next week I would look at it as a buying opportunity – a retest of the 50-day MA would be ideal in this regard.
 


Friday could be short-but-sweet day of low volume buying. A feel-good Turkey blitz should be the order of the day given prior bullish action.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Fascism's return and Trump's war on youth

 

Fascism’s return and Trump’s war on youth

Courtesy of Henry GirouxMcMaster University

Donald Trump’s policies represent a particular attack on American youth and children, particularly those who are disadvantaged. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Fascism is all too often relegated to the history books.

The word conjures up a period in which civilized societies treated democracy with contempt, engaged in acts of systemic violence, practised extermination and elimination, supported an “apocalyptic populism,” suppressed dissent, promoted a hyper-nationalism, displayed contempt for women, embraced militarism as an absolute ideal and in...



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Zero Hedge

Inflation indicator wonders why the Fed is raising rates

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Fed raised rates yesterday, is it necessary for them to do that? Humbly, the answer will come in time.

Below looks at the inflation indicator and how it is testing a key price level-

This inflation indicator (TIP/TLT) has been heading lower overall lower, inside of falling channel (1), for the past 5-years. It hit the top of the channel at the start of this year and has been heading south most of the time.

The infl...



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Biotech

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Delivering genetic material is a key challenge in gene therapy. Invitation image created by Kstudio, CC BY

If you’ve ever bought a new iPhone, you’ve experienced good packaging.

The way the lid slowly separates from the box. The pull...



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Chart School

Rallies Slow As Semiconductor Selling Eases

Courtesy of Declan

Markets experienced early gains but gave them back by the close of business. Given the mini-rally of the past five days, some of the indices are looking vulnerable to a new round of selling.

The S&P finished with a narrow inverted hammer on low volume but at new highs. A move back to the newly accelerated channel is looking favored.
 


The Nasdaq also finished with a narrow doji but wasn't able to make new highs.  It's already close to one channel but looks more likely to reach down to th...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For December 13, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Lightinthebox Holding Co Ltd-ADR (NYSE: LITB) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.01 per share on revenue of $78.49 million.
Companies Reporting After The Bell
  • ABM Industries, Inc. (NYSE: ABM) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $0.49 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

Not A Bubble?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Meet The Crypto Company - up almost 20,000% since inception in September...

To a market cap of over $12.6 billion...

Grant's Interest Rate Observer drew the world's attention to this 'company' yesterday.....



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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