Author Archive for Chart School

Nasdaq Breadth Metrics Race Lower

Courtesy of Declan.

The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 were able to finish the week on support but breadth metrics took a nose dive lower. Both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 only have MACD trigger ‘sells’ to mark weakness.







But it’s Tech breadth metrics which have been on the slide since the end of July. Supporting technical indicators confirm the weakness for Bullish Percents, Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA and Summation Index.






The Dow Jones Index is apparently ignoring weakness in other indices. How long can this last?





The Russell 2000 attempted a recovery just above the last swing low of 1,398. Day traders may make a rally to 1,420 but watch for supply as it looks to challenge the recent swing high.





For tomorrow look for support breaks in Tech averages in line with breadth metrics. Bulls can look for a recovery bounce in the Russell 2000. Dow Jones longs can hold until the previous day’s low is breached.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




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If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Distribution Logic and the USD dollar

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

distribution-logic-and-the-usd-dollarThe USD dollar is very important, we now have a problem, the sell off in the $USD is weakness. Be worried!

We can see the buying climax (BC) , followed by a automatic reaction (AR), a test (T) and we also have a up thrust after distribution (UTAD) and the sell off to support, a clear Sign of Weakness (SOW). The concern is the $USD has fallen from a break out of resistance to previous support, sure $USD is very oversold, and you can expect a bounce, and the bounce will have all traders considering loading up large shorts (expect a last point of supply LPS). This is a classic Wyckoff distribution pattern. Of course traditional charts readers may call this a ‘head and shoulders’ once the LPS has formed. Keep watching!

Of course those outside the USA holding US paper assets wont be pleased, and like before a falling $USD creates portfolio adjustments, buying non USA stocks and bonds, etc. Also you can expect support for real assets (oil, metals, art).

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USD

RT thinks ..”Welcome to the Twilight Zone – it would seem this is the place where Debbie Wasserman Schultz resides, works, and even conspires. She is at the center of a growing scandal that includes ethics violations, fraud, embezzlement, theft, lies, misrepresentation, Pakistan, and gross mishandling of sensitive government documents. And guess what? None of this is being blamed on Russia!”…This could be the Washington scandal of the decade!

This site is not political, the fact is these news stories will rock the $USD and maybe stocks. Remember 1974 sell was based on political noise!

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

…”Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe.”…

William D Gann

..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest


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Dow Jones Industrials Ploughs a Lonely Furrow. Small Caps Feel The Strain

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets are feeling the pinch in what was a heavy sell off in the Russell 2000. The break of the rising trendline has accelerated a rout rather than consolidated a ‘bear trap’.  The index undercut the 50-day MA in a clean move which didn’t suggest demand buyers were willing to step up to the plate. Next stop is the 200-day MA.






Next feeling the pressure are the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Both indices are sitting at a support level although the Nasdaq has a ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume while the Nasdaq 100 has just a ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD. Selling volume has been relatively mild since the top reversal. Relative performance has moved away from Tech indices and give lead action in the Russell 2000 the likely outcome here are for breaks of rising support.






The Dow Jones is the only index pushing highs but given the string of tight gains it’s hard to see these hanging on. However, until proven otherwise, bulls hold all the cards.





The S&P was the only quiet index. There may be a potential double top but it’s a scrappy one. There are ‘sell’ triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume but Stochastics are strong.





For tomorrow, look for selling pressure in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to generate support breakdowns. Aggressive traders may look to catch a top in the Dow but there isn’t a clear marker to suggest such a top is in place. Bulls will probably have to wait for a wide range reversal in the Russell 2000 – the index suffering the most from sellers.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









King Dollar testing triple support with few bulls!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

pic of george washington for kimble charting solutions post

King Dollar over the past 30-weeks has experienced a sizable decline, that hasn’t a ton of times over the past 25-years, see below-

US Dollar Weekly Kimble Charting Solutons

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The large decline in King Dollar has taken it down to what could be an important price point and it has impacted sentiment a good deal as well.

US Dollar Weekly Kimble Charting Solutons

King Dollar hit triple resistance at (1) as momentum became overbought and investors become very confident that it was going to head higher (80% Bulls).

The decline over the past 30-weeks, has King Dollar testing triple support at (2), as momentum has become oversold and it’s hard to find US$ bulls (29% Bulls).

The Power of the Pattern is of the opinion this is a very important support test for King Dollar. What it does at (2), should have a big impact on portfolio construction going forward, especially in the metals and commodities space.

From Kimble Charting Solutions.  We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decision-making and results

Send us an email if you would like to see sample reports or a trial period to test drive our Premium or Weekly Research

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM





Minor Selling

Courtesy of Declan

Today's action ranked as bearish cloud cover after last week's bearish reversal. However, as these reversals came in beneath last week's highs the significance of this selling is less. Volume was also lighter.

The S&P triggered a 'sell' in its On-Balance-Volume but it's well above breakout support.
 

The Nasdaq just about claimed a bearish engulfing pattern but held 6,345 support. More worryingly, there is a shift in relative trend strength against Large Caps. Tomorrow is a chance for aggressive long players to take a punt but today's action suggests 6,345 support won't hold.
 

The Russell 2000 didn't stop at its 20-day MA as it may have done after recent selling. Instead, it continues its path towards its 50-day MA but has at least 1,420 support to work with. As with the Nasdaq there is an opportunity for aggressive longs to take a position here; although stop placement is more tricky with 1,400 next support beyond the 50-day MA.
 


As with the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100 is resting on (what was) channel support. Technicals are all still net bullish and relative performance against Small Caps is still positive.
 

 

For tomorrow, bulls may have to hold their nose but there is a support opportunity in play which may give day traders – if not swing traders – a chance to profit.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.
 





Weekly Market Recap Jul 30, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Another week like so many others in 2017.  Little volatility, little movement – even with a slew of big name earnings.  This certainly is a strange atmosphere just from the lack of volatility over many many months alone.   However companies seem to be doing well enough:

With slightly more than half of S&P 500 components having reported, 73% are turning in better-than-expected earnings and sales with companies reporting earnings that are 6.4% above Wall Street’s estimates and beating sales by 1.2%, according to John Butters, senior analyst at FactSet.

That said…

Data from Bespoke Investment Group show that stocks beating earnings expectations are trading mostly flat while stocks that miss are hit hard, an indication that investors are “buying the rumor and selling the news.”

Aside from earnings they key event of the week was the Federal Reserve meeting – although it was telegraphed no movement was happening.  Fed watchers were looking for a move of a comma or a semicolon to see if the Fed was “more dovish or hawkish!”

The Fed kept rates unchanged on Wednesday.  The Federal Reserve said it will start to reduce its massive $4.5 trillion pile of government and mortgage debt “relatively soon,” a long-expected move that reflects the central bank’s optimism in a steadily growing U.S. economy.  In May the Fed said it would begin to wind down its balance sheet later “this year.”

“The main message from the July FOMC statement was that the Committee is very likely to announce the starting date for running down its balance sheet at the September meeting, but it is worried about inflation,” Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas, said in a note.  “This is a clear signal that the Fed will start unwinding its gargantuan balance sheet in September,” said Luke Hickmore, senior investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.

Eric Winograd, senior economist at AllianceBernstein, meanwhile, predicted the Fed could start tapering its balance sheet as early as September given its reference to “relatively soon” rather than “this year” in previous statements.

When all of Wall Street drinks from the Fed punch…
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Tech At Support. Small Caps Struggle

Courtesy of Declan.

After Thursday’s selling there was more downside on Friday which put further pressure on support. The indices best placed to take advantage were the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.

The Nasdaq touched 6,350 support for the second day in a row. Selling volume was down on Thursday’s but as selling didn’t violate Thursday’s low there is an opportunity for an aggressive long. However, day’s like Friday aren’t typically bullish but until the market proves otherwise the risk:reward isn’t too bad for bulls.

Buyers of the Nasdaq can set stops below 6,335. Technicals are bullish. An opportunity to take a chance?

The Nasdaq 100 is at rising support with a stop on a loss of 5,865.

The Semiconductor Index is trading inside the wide bearish engulfing pattern from Thursday. There is a ‘sell’ trigger in the CCI along with a loss in relative performance against the Nasdaq 100. The convergence of 20-day and 50-day MAs is an opportunity for bulls to counter the trend. Bears now have two bearish engulfing patterns which makes 1,020 a key support level.

The S&P was relatively resistant to Friday’s selling. There was a ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume but it hasn’t tested support. On the good news front there was an improvement in relative performance against Small Caps.

Speaking of Small Caps, the index is caught between a loss of rising support and 1,430 support. There was a ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD to go with the break. The 20-day MA is also available to play as a source of demand. However, a loss of 1,420 would drop the index back inside the earlier sideways consolidation and open up for yet another test of 1,345. The early part of next week will be important.

Bearish metrics can be found elsewhere. The relationship between the Transport Index and the Dow Jones has moved to a breakdown after 18 months of consolidating. This is a worrying development as it suggests the economy is about to take a step down – which…
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SP500 Kitchin Cycle says trouble brewing – Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

sp500-kitchin-cycle-says-trouble-brewing--update8 years up! Come on what do expect, Amazon $2,000. Maxwell Smart..”Chief, it’s this close!”..



The Kitchin cycle (purple loops) suggests trouble can be expected between Sept 2017 and June 2018, readtheticker.com suggests a minimum 20% correction is a sure thing during the next 18 months with the TRUMP’ster around. The chart below shows the cycle has had 2 big winners, who says a fourth is not on the cards!



NOTE: The price chart below with our RTTHurstDPO indicator shows price is conforming to the 900 bar Kitchin cycle.




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SP500


Listen to Jim Rogers, something is coming! Every investor must have a defense game plan!








A clue may be when the centrally funded Amazon.com and other FANG stocks roll over!



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AMZN


The central bank bubbles in order

2000 Top = NASDAQ

2007 Top = Housing

2017 Top = Everything paper (????)



Next bubble will be…



Hard money!







NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”While I have made it a practice to limit my risk in most cases, I can trace most of my principal losses to my failure to place stop orders when the trades were made.”..



Richard D Wyckoff





..”Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway”..



Warren Buffett





..”The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”..



George Soros







..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..



Anon





..”It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong”..



George Soros













Coffee-Another bullish week after breakout, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Coffee Futures and Coffee ETF (JO) have had a rough go of it the past few years. Below looks at the performance of both since 2011

Coffee ETF (JO) Weekly kimble charting solutions

Could these large decline present an opportunity in Coffee? Sure could! Below looks at the chart of JO and what the Power of the Pattern finds interesting.

Coffee ETF (JO) Weekly

Over the past few years, the decline in JO took it down to test 4-year support at (1). While testing support line (1), JO looks to have create a bullish wick (bullish reversal pattern). This took place at long-term support AND at the bottom of a bullish descending triangle. The past few weeks JO has rallied and broken above bullish falling wedge resistance.

Just The Facts Ma’am– JO so far this week looks to be creating another bullish wick (bullish reversal pattern) following the breakout at (2).

This breakout is taking place with few investors bullish Coffee and dumb money traders have a huge short position in play, largest in years. A rally in Coffee has the potential to catch many off guard and could create a short covering rally.

No doubt the trend remains down in both Coffee and JO. Will see if two large bullish reversal patterns in the past 6-weeks are sending a short term bullish message or nothing more than a counter trend short-term rally.

From Kimble Charting Solutions.  We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decion-making and results. Send us an email if you would like to see sample reports or a trial period to test drive our Premium or Weekly Research.

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM





U.S. Dollar; Triple support test after rare 30-week decline

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

From 2011 to the start of this year, the US$ has been pretty strong, as it rallied nearly 30% in 6-years. Over the past 30-weeks, King Dollar has been rather weak.

Below looks at the US$ over the past 18-years, with 30-week performance applied-

US Dollar Weekly Kimble Charting Solutons

King Dollar has declined over 9% in the last 30-weeks at (1). As one can see, this sharp of a decline in 30-weeks hasn’t taken place a ton of times since the late 1990’s. The decline has the US$ testing the bottom of a 24-month trading range and two rising support lines at the same time at (2).

This decline has bullish sentiment towards the US$ at the lowest levels in the past three years, according to Sentimentrader.com, reflected in the chart below.

US Dollar Weekly Kimble Charting Solutons 

This information is coming to you 

With few investors bullish King Dollar at this time and a triple support test in play after a rare 9% decline in 30-weeks, what the US$ does at (2) in the top chart, could become very important for the Dollar and many commodities.

Gold & Silver have not pushed much higher while the US$ has been very weak. This makes the price point in the US$, all the more important to the metals sector, if this triple support test would hold.

From Kimble Charting Solutions.  We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decion-making and results

Send us an email if you would like to see sample reports or a trial period to test drive our Premium or Weekly Research

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

"The Maduro Diet" - Venezuelans Suffer Drastic Weight Loss As Hunger Crisis Strikes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Shortages are becoming ever more severe in Venezuela. As Deutsche Welle reports, according to the World Health Organization, hospitals lack 95% of necessary medicines. Many people are undernourished and they receive no help from the government.

"An estimated 75% of Venezuelans lost at least 10 kilos last year...



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Phil's Favorites

Absurd Inflation Discussion by Fed Jackasses

Courtesy of Mish.

Minutes of the July 25-26 FOMC Meeting show internal concern over the Fed’s inability to hit 2% inflation.

I counted 89 instances of “inflation” and 79 instances of “2”. As sub-categories of 2, there were 27 instances of “2 percent” and eight instances of “below 2”.

“Longer” came up 26 times. “Transitory”, a previous standout, only came up twice. “Idiosyncratic” a new buzzword courtesy of the Cleveland Fed, came up once.

Transitory

  • Be...


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ValueWalk

Could This Be Why Warren Buffett Sold General Electric Bought Synchrony?

By F.A.S.T. Graphs. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Introduction

Warren Buffett has long been considered the consummate value investor.  His penchant for value investing is generally attributed to his relationship with the renowned father of value investing Ben Graham.  However, what is often overlooked is the influence that partner Charlie Munger brought to Warren Buffett’s investing philosophy.  Warren attributes Charlie to introducing him to the concept of investing for growth at a reasonable price.  Consequently, Warren Buffett has evolved from the traditional Ben Graham “cigar butt” value investing strategy into a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) approach.

]]> Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save...



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Digital Currencies

Ukrainian Lawmakers Disclose $45 Million In Bitcoin Holdings

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Ukraine's crackdown on corruption continues, three lawmakers from Ukraine’s ruling party revealed this week that they own a combined $45 million in bitcoin, according to a report by RIA Novosti, a Russian foreign news service.

Their holdings came to light during mandatory financial disclosures by members of the Ukrainian parliament, part of an IMF-approved strategy to tamp down corruption in Ukraine. The country's democratic institutions, which were never very robust to begin with, have been further destabilized by...



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Insider Scoop

Home Depot Called 'The Best House' On The Retailer Block

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related HD Counting the Minutes: Fed Eyed For Possible Hints Of Balance Sheet Plans, Rate Hike Benzinga's Top Upgra...

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Chart School

Time to Short?

Courtesy of Declan.

We had the profit taking sell-off and then the bounce but is now the time for shorts to come in more aggressively? After yesterday's gapped gains there was a significant slow down in the market advance. This action presents an opportunity for shorts to attack.

The Semiconductor Index is one of the most attractive indices for shorts. The massive June bearish engulfing pattern remains dominant and offers guidance going forward. Tuesday's doji has the makings of a bearish harami cross.  Technicals are bearish and aligned in shorts favor.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 14th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead - now's the time to work out the ethics

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead – now's the time to work out the ethics

Courtesy of Jessica BergCase Western Reserve University

There’s still a way to go from editing single-cell embryos to a full-term ‘designer baby.’ ZEISS Microscopy, CC BY-SA

The announcement by researchers in Portland, Oregon that they’ve successfully modified the genetic m...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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