Author Archive for Chart School

Tech Indices Offer Another Chance At Support

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday saw some big volume trading as options expiration kicked in.  However, there was little change in price action across indices.




The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are both in play for Monday, each offering a chance for longs to enter at a combination of channel support and 50-day MA. Technicals are weak, and a move for stochastics [39,1] below 50 would shift technicals net bearish.







The Russell 2000 spent the second day toying with bear flag support. Both 20-day and 50-day MA are rising fast to meet price action which will provide bulls further evidence for underlying demand and reason to protect 1,400.





Large Caps were little changed. The S&P finished with a bullish hammer inside its mini-trading range, while the Dow Jones continued to add to its gains in small steps.





The chief struggling index is the Semiconductor Index. The breadown is still in play, but the question will be what happens when the next rally hits and attempts to challenge 1,140.





For tomorrow, bulls can look to the Dow, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 for opportunities. Bears can keep track at the Semiconductor Index.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









On the back of the Chinese speculator

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

on-the-back-of-the-chinese-speculatorThe Chinese investor class can move markets, the Anglo Saxon investor class has a serious challenger.

The Chinese government thought it was a good idea the middle class invest in stocks, what followed was the massive exponential rally in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC). Point: This was an approved government action.

The Chinese government sees a future for bitcoin in its monetary plan, and has cleaned up the coin exchanges, such positive noise from the government has encourage the bitcoin trend, and with nearly 50% of all transactions sourced from China the price is on its way to $5000 USD (BTCSTAMPUSD). Point: This was an approved government action.

The Chinese government encourages it citizens to invest in hard money (Gold and Silver). However it is suspected it has been China who has been the late night manipulator of the gold price (well maybe some help from the BIS and JPM in silver) to allow her to accumulate physical metal at discount prices. This wont last for ever, and when the day comes for China to wish trade to be backed by gold back notes and international trade priced in yuan (including oil), you can bet the Chinese investor will rush into the yellow metal. This will be an approved government action, as Chine will be the worlds largest holder of physical metal.

In short, the US dollar importance will been reduced. Do not be surprised when one day the gold trend mirrors SSEC and BTCSTAMPUSD as the chart below suggest.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Bitcoin

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, taken together, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.”..

Jesse Livermore

..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate


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Nasdaq 100 at Support

Courtesy of Declan.

It was a mixed day for markets. The day started with a gap down but bulls were able to make a respectable recovery to finish well yet still net down on the day.




The index best placed for a bounce on Friday is the Nasdaq 100.  In addition to finishing on rising channel support the index has the 50-day MA to lean on too. Today’s open started at the 50-day MA.  Technicals do not offer much encouragement with a new ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume to follow the existing ‘sell’ in the MACD.






The S&P continues to shape a trading range. Today’s action did little to change that. The MACD saw a ‘sell’ trigger, but in itself doesn’t mean much unless confirmed with a downside break of the trading range (illustrated in the chart below).





The Rusell 2000 lost ground against yesterday’s ‘bull trap’ placing it back inside the consolidation. It did manage a decent finish, so watch for a challenge on the ‘bull trap’ which could catch many shorts out.





Momentum players still have the Dow Jones Index. Today’s action did little damage to its breakout.  Technicals for this index are still in good shape.





Shorts still have one avenue to work and that’s the Semiconductor Index. Thursday’s finish left the index below the sharply rising channel.  A move back to tag this former support level could see shorts stir into action, but a move above 1,100 would negate this short position.





For tomorrow, momentum players still have the Dow Jones Index, support/demand traders can look to the Nasdaq 100, while shorts can look to the Semiconductor Index.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Potential ‘Bull Trap’ in Russell 2000

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets experienced another round of profit taking but there was only one market showing a potential top. Yesterday, the Russell 2000 edged a breakout but today sellers put this in jeopardy with a potential ‘bull trap’.




The ‘bull trap’ in the Russell 2000 will be negated on a move above 1,433. Further losses will drop the index back inside the prior consolidation, but ‘bull traps’ often lead to moves to the other side of the consolidation – in this case, a break below 1,340.






The Nasdaq offers a shorting opportunity as the index struggles to make back last Friday’s loss. The 20-day MA is playing as resistance; place stops a few percentage points above the MA.




The S&P is more likely to shape a consolidation as other indices distract attention. Selling volume was light, but there was a ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume. There is no clear topping behaviour for this index, so it’s a wait-and-see for now.





In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial average added to prior gains. Momentum buyers will be pleased with its behavior.




For tomorrow, track action in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq. If sellers add to today’s action then this could start a wave of profit taking and new shorting opportunities.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Small Caps Inch Higher

Courtesy of Declan.

After Friday’s selloff, it was left to bulls to try and paint over the cracks. The Russell 2000 returned to its breakout with a small gain over 1,420. The spike high is still influential, but the move into the spike high weakens the significance of this typically bearish candlestick. Also, note the sharp rise in relative market performance against the Nasdaq.




The S&P maintained its rally having successfully defended the May breakout.  Today’s gain didn’t knock out at 2,446 but it took a big step towards it. Volume was modest and technicals are positive. It could still make a new breakout if it can clear 2,446; action for the last couple of weeks is itself a consolidation and therefore ready to break.





The Nasdaq experienced the greatest loss and only managed to bank the smallest gain today. The Index has a long way to go to make back the loss but shorts will be looking for opportunities to attack – particularly if the positivity in the Russell 2000 reverses. Technicals have a ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD and bearish crossover in the -DI/+DI





The Dow Jones was the only index to finish with a new 52-week high. While it’s a limited index in the number of components it was the index which had been in May primed for a breakout and in the last few weeks, delivered.  Momentum traders may get more out of this in the coming weeks.





For Tuesday, bulls can look for further momentum gains in the Russell 2000, Dow Jones and S&P.  Shorts will be looking for a doji or bearish candlestick which fails to challenge the highs of Friday’s selloff in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Sunday, 11 September 2016, 03:16:56 AM

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Comment: RTT: Something is out of wack!

Date Found: Sunday, 11 September 2016, 05:45:19 PM

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Comment: US Tax receipts signal something is wrong!

Date Found: Wednesday, 14 September 2016, 01:53:26 AM

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Comment: Gold Goes To All-time Highs If Fed Admits It Cannot Raise Rates youtu.be/BhTl4f10t3g

Date Found: Sunday, 18 September 2016, 09:57:55 PM

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Comment: Michael Pento: The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse RTT: Very real! youtu.be/IAiQTcmc_Hg

Date Found: Wednesday, 21 September 2016, 03:24:41 AM

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Comment: Paul Craig Roberts-Economy A Hoax & House Of Cards youtu.be/BoZDR71LPWQ

Date Found: Thursday, 22 September 2016, 11:45:16 PM

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Comment: Script by George Soros! youtu.be/7TML_LRC4lE

Date Found: Thursday, 29 September 2016, 04:01:30 AM

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Comment: Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) Na couldnt happen! www.youtube.com/…

Date Found: Thursday, 29 September 2016, 05:00:06 PM

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Comment: Lance Roberts…”It might be worth turning off the “nattering nay-bobs” on television and start thinking about what the “smart money” knows that you don’t.”…

Date Found: Friday, 30 September 2016, 05:36:30 PM

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Comment: SR 1226 –Trump Snatches Lead in All Age Groups from Crooked Hillary youtu.be/dkHw94VrLWY

Date Found: Saturday, 01 October 2016, 04:14:04 PM

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Comment: Collapse of Dollar and Rise of Gold | Jim Willie youtu.be/TCIZKsp5Mxw

Date Found: Monday, 03…
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When does this all end – Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

when-does-this-all-end--updateHow does a retail trader know when prices in the stock market are at a extreme level.

Very simply, when the price for utility stocks are extreme. When prices for water, power and gas companies are just, well, crazy! The other characteristic is to look at market leaders, to see if very high volume is present when prices charge into all time highs. This high volume represents the composite man selling to those who are very late to the party.

Who is the composite man?

Richard Wyckoff definition…”all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”..

You may notice when making a call on the stock market, one refers to the stock market at not economic stats or FED actions for the simple reason the stock market must be judged by its own actions. Price and volume action clearly shows if the composite man releasing stock float to the public (or those very late to the party), and as the composite man is judged to be the informed money the retail trader would be wise to heed their actions.

The Dow Jones Utility stock index is near the long term upper channel, a reach to $850 would attract heavy selling and a top is very likely.

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Utility Stocks

Here is an example of a leading market leader attracting selling by the composite man, the retail investor should read the tea leaves and understand that the smart money is selling down stock float inventories.

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NVDA selling

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”Frequent requests are made for the name of someone


continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Jun 11, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Four placid days led to a Friday that in recent terms would be considered “wild” but in 2008 terms would be considered a “quiet session”.  There was some actual volatility Friday as indexes gapped up and ran before reversing sharply mid morning and sell off, led by the giant tech stocks that have been the stars of 2017.   If that is a precursor of anything or algorithms gone wild for a few hours, we shall see in the next few weeks.  Thursday’s Comey testimony and UK elections didn’t really move the needle much but the latter perhaps led to some of the volatility Friday.

Also Thursday, the ECB, as expected, left interest rates unchanged but said it continued to expect interest rates “to remain at present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon” of its asset-buying program, which is set to run at least through December. In previous statements, the ECB had said it expected rates “to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.”  So this is what markets have become the last decade – word smithing central banks massive buying programs for any potential tiny change.

In a quiet economic week, on Monday ISM non manufacturing fell 0.6 to 56.9 in May. Any reading above 50 indicates improving conditions, however.

Of note – Alphabet (GOOG), Google’s parent, closed above $1000 for the first time this week… a week after Amazon did.   Speaking of, Amazon is cutting prices of its Prime membership for low income workers as a direct swipe at Walmart.

The online retailer giant said Tuesday that it will offer a nearly 20% segment of the U.S. population—people who obtain government assistance with cards typically used for food stamps—a $5.99 monthly Prime membership, less than the $10.99 a month or $99 annual plan for other consumers. The membership buys access to unlimited two-day shipping, video and music content, photo storage and other perks.

These 2 stocks, along with Apple did sink Friday but goodness sake they have been on an epic collective run considering the massive size they…
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A Bear Market for S&P could only touch 2016 lows

Courtesy of Declan.

The ‘most hated’ rally, started in 2009, suffered a potential setback with wide range (neutral) candlesticks across markets. How much the UK election result played on this remains to be seen but Friday’s trading marked a day of chaos.  Shorts should not be jumping so much for joy. The rally for the past few months has taken indices to a point where a 25% loss – a definition for a bear market – would only see tests of February’s lows in 2016 (and nowhere near a test of 2009 lows or anything later).

The S&P experienced higher volume distribution as the day closed with a ‘spinning top’. Next week will be about consolidating the action in the context of Friday’s close and holding the breakout. Technicals remain positive

The Nasdaq suffered a near 2% loss, which looked a lot worse in the context of tight trading over the past 6 months. This also led to ‘sell’ triggers in the MACD and ADX; not to mention a significant reversal in relative performance. While the selling was nasty, it hasn’t knocked (yet) the rally out of its stride. Next week will be about preserving the breakout. Don’t be surprised if there is a brief drop below 6,200 before an end-of-week finish above this support level.

I was impressed with the Russell 2000. This underperforming index was able to hold some of its Friday gain (as all fell around it).  This provided a healthy boost in relative performance, leaving the index just shy of a trading range breakout of 1,420 with solid technical strength. Longs should watch this index for leads early next week.

I had talked a couple of weeks ago about the Dow Jones Average been primed for a breakout. As other indices struggled, the Dow posted a clear breakout on higher volume accumulation.  With momentum buyers having fewer options to work with, this – and the Russell 2000 – could be the indices to deliver in the weeks to come.

Some more aggressive shorts will be holding good gains in the Nasdaq 100.…
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(Pre-) Breakout in Russell 2000

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn’t much to attract interest but the Russell 2000 managed to stick its head above the parapet with a solid gain.  The Russell 2000 was left just shy of challenging trading range resistance.  Other indices are trading in a tight range which builds tension for a reactionary move; given what’s happened in Small Caps, a breakout higher is perhaps favored.




The Russell 2000 cleared inner resistance of the ‘bear trap’ and brought the index to trading range resistance. Tomorrow, watch for a consolidation at 1,420 before the Russell 2000 pushes higher.






The Dow Jones had looked ready to follow with a new confirmed breakout, but it gave up ground by the close of business. Lead supporting technicals are net bullish with the exception of relative performance against the Nasdaq 100.





The S&P traded an indecisive spinning top on higher volume accumulation. However, while price action was muted relative performance against Small Caps has taken a sharp move south; money is rotating out of safety-first Large Caps to more speculative Small Caps – a move which favours bulls and long-term stock holders.





The Nasdaq poked his head to new highs on higher volume accumulation. While it technically could be viewed as a breakout there wasn’t really enough momentum to rate it as such. Relative performance remains strong.





Markets are well placed to follow up on the gains generated by the Russell 2000 and generate follow up breakouts in Large Caps and Tech – not to mention – a trading range breakout in the Russell 2000.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Be good...just not too good

 

Be good…just not too good

Courtesy of 

“You rollin’ like Trump, you get your meat lumped.”
-Raekwon the Chef

The number one rap song in the country right now, Kendrick Lamar’s Be Humble, was first introduced via a viral clip of LeBron jamming out to it on Instagram. LeBron was amazing in the post-season but in the NBA Finals earlier this month, he was most certainly humbled. The Jordan comparisons – not that he was the one making them – were probably not a great look, k...



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ValueWalk

Seth Klarman: A Bubble Warning From The Past

By Rupert Hargreaves. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Seth Klarman’s Market Bubble Warning from many years ago is apt to today

Legendary investor Sir John Templeton is remembered for many things, but perhaps his most memorable investment quote has to be “The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different’.” Unfortunately, despite Sir John’s reputation, to this day Wall Street analysts and well-known investors continue to use this same to justify high stock valuations and overvalued new issues.

]]> Get The Full Seth Klarman Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Seth Klarman in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email t...



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Insider Scoop

Vetr Crowd Downgrades Snap To 4 Stars

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Since reaching its all-time high in February, Snap Inc (NYSE: SNAP) has traded down all the way down to its $17 IPO price, and the Vetr community has downgraded the stock from 4.5 stars to 4 stars. The company’s first earnings report saw misses on both EPS and revenue estimates.

See how crowdsourced ratings can help predict the market?

Vetr members have given Snap a Buy rating and a $19.38 price target. This price target fairs lower than the $23.08 price target from professional analysts. The stock opened Wednesday around $17.35.

Of all Vetr raters, 62.9 percent believe traders and inve...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 26th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Zero Hedge

Seattle Min Wage Hikes Crushing The Poor: 6,700 Jobs Lost, Annual Wages Down $1,500 - UofW Study

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just last week we noted that McDonalds launched plans to replace 2,500 human cashiers with digital kiosks like the ones below (see: McDonalds Is Replacing 2,500 Human Cashiers With Digital Kiosks: Here Is Its Math):

Of course, no matt...



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Chart School

Kelly Heros Sgt. OddBall philosophy to read stock charts

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Sgt OddBall said these famous words "Don’t hit me with them negative waves so early in the morning!".



More from RTT Tv

readtheticker.com PnF charts allows the chart reader the judge price waves of both positive and negative.

Waves are judged 3 (power), 2 (significant), 1 (above average). Blue is up, Red is down.

For each PnF wave you should judge: breaking into new ground or not, thrust, volume, net volume, strength (3, 2 or 1).

In an uptrend (mark up): You wish to see blue positive 3s and 2s controlling the trend, breaking into n...

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Biotech

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Courtesy of Electra D. Paskett, The Ohio State University

Early in our careers, few of us imagined a vaccine could one day prevent cancer. Now there is a vaccine that keeps the risk of developing six Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers at bay, but adoption of it has been slow and surprising low.

Although it’s been available for more than a decade, as of 2014 only 40 percent of girls had received the full three doses of the vaccine, while only ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Buyer Beware

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Entrepreneurs have a new trick to raise money quickly, and it all takes place online, free from the constraints of banks and regulators. As Axios reports, since the beginning of 2017, 65 startups have raised $522 million using initial coin offerings — trading a digital coin (essentially an investment in their company) for a digital currency, like Bitcoin or Ether.

One recent example, as NYT reports, saw Bay Area coders earn $35 million in less than 30 seconds during an online fund-raising event...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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