Hi All - there are some new articles on the Phil’s Favorites backup site, and I’m posting this one since we need something newer in this space.

Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK): Moving into the seasonal sweet spot - Citigroup

Citigroup says mid-qtr check on Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) fundamentals suggests positive EPS revision pressure is forming, in line w/seasonal norms which in yrs past have been ‘+’ for the stock. Demand risks exist (handset), though CIR thinks rising contract pricing from June to October is a reasonable outlook. SNDK is Citi’s mid-cap top pick on contract pricing and EPS revision catalysts.

Since 2003 Street EPS have jumped 22% and 43% in 2Q and 3Q, respectively (shares by 18% and 34%). Firm recalls that contract pricing risks shift to the upside from May to September (back to school and pre-holiday demand), though broader chip industry orders are most benign from June to August. NAND’s comparative seasonal strength should augur well for SNDK shares if fundamental and estimate trends emerge in 2Q08/3Q08 as they think possible.

Reits Buy.

Notablecalls: Worth maybe 1pt upside here.

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That didn’t last long — I think we’re still getting email alerts for these articles. So, for now, after this note, let’s return to the backup site for more reading. Thanks! - Ilene

We all know about this already, but here’s Barry’s Ritholtz’s comment on the oil forecast.

WTF Headline of the Day? GS Says Oil ‘Likely’ to Reach $150-$200

Excerpt: "Today’s WTF headline isn’t a criticism of the financial media so much as a disturbing forecast:

Goldman’s Murti Says Oil `Likely’ to Reach $150-$200
Crude oil may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years as growth in supply fails to keep pace with increased demand from developing nations, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Arjun N. Murti said in a report.

New York-based Murti first wrote of a "super spike” in March 2005, when he said oil prices could range between $50 and $105 a barrel through 2009. The price of crude traded in New York averaged $56.71 in 2005, $66.23 in 2006 and $72.36 in 2007. Oil rose to an intraday record $120.93 today on speculation demand will rise during the peak U.S. summer driving season.

Before you blow the guy off as an energy extremist, his $105 target 3 years ago was widely derided (&quo…

One more from Mish, and yes, all’s working!

Fannie Mae Cumulative Defaults (and other disasters)

Inquiring minds are checking out the Fannie Mae 2008 Q1 10-Q Investor Summary. There are plenty of charts, graphs and other data to consider.

For example, please consider this graph on page 27.

Cumulative Default Rates Overall Originations from 2000 thru 2007

click on chart for sharper image

Minyan Peter, former treasurer at a major US bank had this to say:

From experience, vintage data doesn’t lie. A group of loans that starts out badly ends badly. And as the chart shows, the most recent vintages are deteriorating faster and to higher levels than older vintages. Further, all of the loss and delinquency data is for a pre-recessionary period.

Professor Kevin Depew was talking about Fannie Mae yesterday in points 1-4 of Tuesday’s Five Things. Let’s take a…

We’re back up on this site again, so here’s my testing-to-see article, courtesy of Mish (always good formating from his site :-),  plus I agree with his conclusion)

Hardball In Vallejo, No Balls In D.C.

Cities and municipalities have been promising government workers more in salaries and pension benefits than can possibly be met. Unfunded liabilities are mounting and the ticking time bomb finally went off. What had to happen, did. Vallejo California Declared Bankruptcy.

The North Bay city of 117,000 now heads into largely uncharted territory, as no California city of this size has ever opted for this route. "This has been a long frustrating process for everyone," said City Manager Joseph Tanner. "There are no winners here tonight."

My Comment: I disagree. Taxpayers of Vallejo are winners, perhaps more so than if a deal was struck.

After about four hours of discussion and public comment from the standing-room-only crowd, the council voted 7-0 to approve Tanner’s recommendation to declare Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection as a means to reorganize its finances, which have been shattered by spiraling public employee salaries and the plummeting housing market.

The move allows the city to freeze its debts while maintaining city services. Police, f…

Hi All - Temporarily, let’s go to the old backup site for new articles:  http://philsbackupsite.wordpress.com.   Thanks!…

Daniel Carroll, compares the financial crisis now to those in previous years and determines that every period is unique. Here’s his analysis, courtesy of Dan Carroll, of Vestopia.

Comments on Inflation; or is it Deflation?

You can’t read a newspaper article without reading comparisons to a past financial crisis. The conclusions will vary depending upon which time period is used for the comparison. I thought is useful to run through the similarities and differences with past crisis. The following table outlines the comparison between the current period and three prior periods: the Great Depression, the Stagflation of the 1970’s, and a recent but mild recession in 1992. I look at various key stats, particularly as they relate to the current hot button issue: are we headed for higher inflation?

Great Depression (1929-40)
Stagflation (1972-83)
Gulf War (1990-93)
Real Estate Bust (2007-?)

General Price Direction:
-Great Depression - Deflation (-25% or -7% per year through 1933)
-Stagflation - Inflation (+140% or +8-9% per year)
-Gulf War - Disinflation (+10%, or +3-4% per year)
-Real Estate Bust - ?

Fed Funds Rate:
-Great Depression - Raised
-Stagflation - Lowered
-Gulf War - Lowered
-Real Estate Bust - Lowered

Note: The Fed lowered rates in ‘72-73 to fight recession, raised them sharply in 1980 to end inflation. The Gov’t printed money in 1941 to finance war, which reinflated economy, after mai…

Here’s an article on E*Trade, posted by Dean Laster on Seeking Alpha.

Why the E*Trade Shorts Have It Wrong

Excerpt: "E*Trade’s (ETFC) management is doing everything right to turn the company around, and their efforts will reap benefits for shareholders sooner rather than later. The stock has obviously taken a serious hit due to its careless investments in commercial mortgage-backed securities and other derivative products. The company has also done a great job disclosing the magnitude of future writedowns, namely $3 billion over the next two years, which in turn has painted a clearer picture of future performance. Joe Moglia, the CEO of TD Ameritrade (AMTD), recently mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money that the defection of customers from E*trade has already taken place. 

Despite the financial turmoil, management has shrewdly decided to focus on investing in its core com…