Author Archive for ilene

Hollande Meets Le Pen to Discuss Brexit; Can France Escape a Referendum?

Courtesy of Mish.

In the wake of the stunning Brexit vote come news that French president Francois Hollande has called for a meeting of minds to discuss a response.

Interesting, the group includes Eurosceptic party leader Marine Le Pen.

Please consider François Hollande Meets Marine Le Pen to Discuss Brexit Fallout.

François Hollande met Marine Le Pen at the Elysée Palace on Saturday in a sign of how the far-right leader has taken centre stage in France in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU.

Mr Hollande gathered France’s most prominent political party leaders — including Ms Pen — for a series of back-to-back meetings as he sought to thrash out a response to Thursday’s UK referendum.

The move comes less than a year before France’s presidential election, in which both Mr Hollande and Ms Le Pen are expected to run. The French president was also meeting Nicolas Sarkozy, his predecessor in the Elysee and another likely candidate in next year’s race.

Britain’s decision to leave the EU has further raised the profile of Ms Le Pen, whose National Front has already notched up a series of impressive results in local elections.

Ms Le Pen used Saturday’s meeting to reiterate her demands for a referendum on France’s membership of the EU, but she said that her calls were rejected and admitted that she was left “with the feeling of having come for nothing”.

She added that there was a clear strategy to make Britain’s exit painful so as to set an example to others. “It is clear that some people want the divorce to be as painful as possible so that others don’t get the idea of going down the same road as the British,” she said after the meeting with Mr Hollande.

The French president is seeking to adopt a tough stance on the UK’s decision — one that would impose costs on Britain for leaving the bloc — not least to limit Ms Le Pen’s calls for a so-called “Frexit”, and to avoid the issue dominating the forthcoming campaign.

On Saturday, Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister, called for a new European project to make the bloc “much more transparent and democratic”, and said that it should be put to citizens via a referendum. “We have never had the courage to


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Brexit Question on Free Trade

Courtesy of Mish.

A reader asks if my stance of free trade is consistent with Brexit.

Reader Craig asks

Hi Mish,

I just thought of this, you are very free trade\open markets. In fact you advocate eliminating all tariffs in the USA. The elimination of tariffs is one of the intended goals of the EU. You however were for Brexit, which most people would think is anti-free market, or anti-free trade. Your stance this seems to be contradictory. Have you changed your stance since you stated that “the first country that practices free trade regardless of what anyone else does will be a winner.” or I’m I missing something?

Yes you are missing something. Many things in fact.

The EU is the biggest anti-free trade organization in the world.

  • The EU has crop subsidies for the benefit of France at the expense of everyone else in the EU.
  • The EU has regulations on everything including a provision that regulate abnormal curvature of bananas
  • The EU imposed sanctions on Russia even though the action hurt their own farmers.
  • The EU generally supports a financial transaction tax (not passed but it probably will now)
  • The EU supports penalizing Google
  • All 28 nations in the EU have to agree on something to make a change to the treaty. France will never give up its agricultural subsidies and tariffs

Ridiculous EU Rules

There are a lot of claims and counter-claims over Ridiculous EU Rules but Business Insider investigated. Here are the ones labeled true.

  1. Banana’s cannot be too bendy.
  2. It is illegal to claim water hydrates you on a bottle of water.
  3. Prunes cannot be promoted for a bowel function effect.
  4. Turnips cannot be labeled “swedes”, except in one place.
  5. Diabetics are banned from driving (passed but not enforced).
  6. Eggs cannot be sold by the dozen, they have to be sold by weight.

In regards to prunes, the EU ruled “The evidence provided is insufficient to establish a cause and effect relationship between the consumption of dried plums of ‘prune’ cultivars (Prunus domestica L.) and maintenance of normal bowel function.”

In regards to eggs, they can be packaged by the dozen, but the package has to include the weight. This is nothing but needless red tape.


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Financial Fridays: What the ‘Brexit’ Means!

 

Financial Fridays: What the ‘Brexit’ Means!

Courtesy of James Altucher

uk-eu-doors-web-800x500_c

Nothing.

I almost have nothing more to say about it. I haven’t been following the news at all about the entire issue.

But I know a thing or two about financial disasters. This is so far from a financial disaster it’s almost ludicrous when I looked at the headlines (although I avoided reading the articles) this morning.

FAQ:

A) Is this bad for the United States?

No, it’s great for the United States. For the next five years, British companies and the UK are going to be negotiating all sorts of trade issues: tariffs, taxes, etc.

Meanwhile, nothing at all changes for the US. So US companies will take advantage of the chaos. There’s really nothing else to say here.

Oh wait, one more thing: the EU will probably try to stimulate the impoverished economies within the EU now that there is one less backstop to do it. There’s basically only Germany left as the only major economic power in the EU.

For once, the US doesn’t have to bail anyone out. It’s all up to Germany.

 

B) Is this bad for the UK?

Maybe. Like any economic situation. We just have no idea. Some UK companies with heavy commerce in the EU will suffer. And UK citizens, in general, might do better if they don’t have to worry about countries like Greece anymore.

The key is: we have zero clue. Nobody does. There is no prediction right now that is accurate. Just like most people predicted incorrectly about this vote, anyone making a prediction about the UK economy over the next five years is probably wrong (on both sides!)

But… the fact that the US markets are down on this is ludicrous. Will Google have less searches? Will Japan and Detroit sell less cars?

(Related:  Financial Friday’s: Everything You Need To Know About Economics, But… Actually There’s Nothing You Need To Know)

 

C) What does a Brexit actually mean?

It means almost nothing. For instance, nothing really changes today. Or tomorrow. Or next month. Or even…
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Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Courtesy of John Rubino.

UK Votes to leave EU, markets stunned. Stocks plunge worldwide, gold soars, volatility spikes, pound tanks. Gold COTs are “over the top.” Central banks seem to be losing control of the narrative. Bitcoin jumps. Trump campaign in chaos while polls show dead heat in battleground states.

Best Of The Web

The sky has not fallen after Brexit – Telegraph
Brexit & the fourth turning – Burning Platform
Brexit = death of the technocrats – Liberty Blitzkrieg
Brexit: The system cannot hold – Automatic Earth
Look to the 1980s for the key to 2016 success – Seeking Alpha
The European Union: Government by deception – Automatic Earth
Imagine – Hussman Funds
Why the Imperial City must be sacked – David Stockman
Weekly commentary: reminiscing about 2012 – Credit Bubble Bulletin
Thinking upside down; Dow 18k still key – Best Minds Inc.
Full employment & stable prices OR fat spreads & asset bubbles? – Econimica
Why this time is completely, utterly, totally different – Economicia
15 facts about the imploding US economy – Economic Collapse

—————————————————————–

Breaking News

The Economy

6/25    Welcome to the weird world of negative interest rates – Fortune

6/25    The sky has not fallen after Brexit but we face years of hard labor – GATA

6/25    History lesson: Don’t count on history – Mish

6/25    July may be back on the table at the Fed – for a rate cut – Bloomberg

6/25    Brexit trigger event for markets and political chaos – Crush The Street

6/25    Marc Faber on Brexit: It sends a clear message – CNBC

6/24    Don’t worry, Deutsche Bank only down 16% – Mish

6/24    The bear roars around the world as Britain votes to leave EU – The Street

6/24    Durable goods orders crater in May – Zero Hedge

6/24    What just happened, and why it’s important for Americans – CNBC

6/24    The consequences of leaving the party – Goldmoney

6/24    Britain should exit Keynesianism, not Europe – Sprott Money

6/24    EU Referendum live; Cameron resigns – Telegraph

6/24    Global markets stunned as UK votes to leave EU – CNBC

6/24    Hawkish Fed looms as initial jobless claims plunge near 42 year lows – Talk Markets

6/24    When will


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Hedge Funds which are really Money Managers have become Dumb Money (Video)

Courtesy of EconMatters

So called "Hedge Funds" who employ no real hedge fund strategies for the majority of their allotted fund capital are really just marketing themselves as Alpha Players to charge the 2 and 20, when based upon performance and trading strategies deserve just the 1.5 to 2% money managing fee of standard money managers.

 





“See EU Later” – On The Front Covers Of UK Newspapers Today

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Two days ago, when Britain was set to vote for Brexit, we showed the front pages of the local newspapers which fell into two broad camps and could be summarized as follows: "Project Hope" and "Project Fear." Project Hope won. And just as we did then, here is a snapshot of the newspaper and tabloid covers the local population will see on its European Independence day.

Neddless to say, the split in public opinion persists and can be best seen in the covers of the ideologically opposed Daily Express and The Mirror.

And the rest





Brexit: What Happened Take II

Courtesy of Mish.

Several readers are still wondering why the odds-makers and pollsters got it wrong so badly.

Let’s recap.

  1. If the odds-makers made money, they got it correct. If they lost money, they got it wrong. That is all there is to it. Odd-makers do not predict results. People betting money do. I have not seen any analysis that suggest the odds-makers lost money. It’s possible they did, but if so it was most likely due to a late voting surge.
  2. The pollsters did blow it badly. I surmise pollsters looked at historical trends to judge a vote that happens once a century or so. Since the pollsters got it so wrong last time, they over compensated this time. ORB was particularly bad.
  3. Surprise surprise. It turns out the online polls were far more accurate. In telephone polls, the pollsters attempt to persuade people to choose. Was there a bit of a hint in that force?
  4. Jo Cox. There was a snapback in favor of remain that started before the murder of Jo Cox. However, it’s now pretty clear, as I suggested all along, that snapback was exaggerated. When pressured to choose, I suspect people said Remain out of sympathy, then voted how they really felt at the voting booth.
  5. Passion and Complacency. It was a given by many that Remain would win. But the passion was with leave. Likely voters for Leave turned out in droves. Voters for remain had less passion than voters for Leave.
  6. The weather. Without a doubt weather played a role. But weather and passion go together. Rain likely kept more Remain voters home than Leave voters.
  7. Lies. Let’s not discount the possibilities of outright lies. In an online survey it’s easy to be honest. When talking to a live person, there is a tendency to say what the other person wants to hear. Also, some people just did not want to admit to others personally they took a stance opposite to that of their party. With online polls people do not have such reservations. Online is impersonal.

Points #2, #7, #5, and #4 resonate strongly in this corner (and in that order).

Singh Final Odds

There is going to be some serious soul searching by the pollsters and analysts following yet another pathetic performance by them.

Nearly everyone “presumed” how those undecided


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The Market’s Response To Crisis

 

The Market’s Response To Crisis

Courtesy of 

The most important thing long-term investors need to see today is the market’s response to crisis, courtesy of Dimensional Funds.

Screen Shot 2016-06-24 at 9.22.05 AM

The chart above should put the Brexit in perspective. Nobody knows yet what the implications will be, but I’m pretty confident that this is no more significant than any of the six events above. Now of course there are never any guarantees, that’s what risk means. And if you need the money in the next five years, you should not be subjecting it to the risk of the stock market anyhow.

I’m a believer in practicing what I preach, so today in my personal account, I added to the international side of my portfolio. This is definitely not a market call, I am not suggesting the bottom is in, but I also know not to look a gift horse in the mouth. When an entire index falls ten percent in a day, you hold your nose and hit the buy button. Investing is all about giving your future self a chance at a better life, and it’s days like today that determine whether or not you’ll be able to do so via the stock market.

I’m invoking article 50 and resurrecting a Warren Buffett quote, who had this to say when clients reached out to him after stocks fell in 1966:

After the Dow declined from 995 at the peak of February to about 865 in May, I received a few calls from partners suggesting that they thought stocks were going a lot lower. This always raises two questions in my mind: (1) if they knew in February that the Dow was going to 865 in May, why didn’t they let me in on it then and (2) if they didn’t know what was going to happen during the ensuing three months back in February, how do they know in May? There is also a voice or two after any hundred point or so decline suggesting we sell and wait until the future is clearer. Let me again suggest two points: (1) the future has never been clear to me (give us a call when the next few months are


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Friday Humor: What Comes After Brexit

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

On a day full of tears, jeers, and fears for many, we thought a little humor might help…

What comes after Brexit?

 

 

In other words…

 





History Lesson: Don’t Count On History

Courtesy of Mish.

I would have loved to have predicted the Brexit vote with confidence. But I didn’t. Instead I predicted a 52-48 win for Remain.

However, I did repeatedly warn (to no avail) to Matt Singh and others counting on “history”, that counting on history was a bad idea.

Comments Ahead of the Vote

In my final post before the vote I noted Last Four Brexit Polls Split: Turnout of Age 18-35 Likely the Key.

Turnout was indeed the key, but I also questioned the methodology of the latest polls.

Likelihood to Vote

ORB Final

In ORB’s final poll, not only did the likelihood of the two most likely age groups to vote Remain rise dramatically, the likelihood of the most likely age group to vote Leave fell.

On top of that, ORB imputed a 3-1 advantage for Remain on most undecided voters, leaving a mere 2% truly “undecided”.

What Happened?

What happened is all the polls that got it wrong last time, changed their methodology in belief that Matt Singh, was the the latest all-knowing God, just as Nate Silver was in the US.

Neither Nate Silver, nor Matt Singh responded to numerous emails or Tweets. My Tweets to Singh were not combative (until after vote), and in many cases I simply asked polite questions because I did not understand his methods or terminology.


Continue reading here…





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

"Brexit Is A Bear Stearns Moment, Not A Lehman Moment"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Epsilon Theory's Ben Hunt of Salient Partners

Waiting for Humpty Dumpty  June 24, 2016

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king’s horses and all the king’s men
Couldn’t put Humpty together again.

Brexit is a Bear Stearns moment, not a Lehman moment. That’s not to diminish what’s happening (markets felt like death in March, 2008), but this isn’t the event to make you run for the hills. Why...



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Phil's Favorites

Hollande Meets Le Pen to Discuss Brexit; Can France Escape a Referendum?

Courtesy of Mish.

In the wake of the stunning Brexit vote come news that French president Francois Hollande has called for a meeting of minds to discuss a response.

Interesting, the group includes Eurosceptic party leader Marine Le Pen.

Please consider François Hollande Meets Marine Le Pen to Discuss Brexit Fallout.

François Hollande met Marine Le Pen at the Elysée Palace on Saturday in a sign of how the far-right leader has taken centre stage in France in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU.

Mr Hollande gathered France’s most prominent political party leaders — including Ms Pen — for a series of back-to-...



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ValueWalk

T Boone Pickens Hour Interview - Birthday with a Billionaire

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

T Boone Pickens Hour Interview – Birthday with a Billionaire

Sign up for ValueWalk's free newsletter here.

...

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Chart School

Best Stock Market Indicator Update

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

We continue to receive requests for updates to the "Best Stock Market Indicator", which used to be a regular guest post from John Carlucci. Here is an update of the "Carlucci" indicator along with a summary of John's explanation on how he uses it.

As John described it: "The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the "sweet spot" time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money."

Latest Indicator Position

According to this system, the market ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Why Brexit Is So Bad for the Global Economy (The Atlantic)

Great Britain’s decision to extricate itself from the EU has consequences that are at once far-reaching and unknown. By Friday morning, no market was immune. Great Britain’s currency, the pound, had fallen to its lowest levels since 1985, and the FTSE (an index of the London stock exchange) and DAX (a German stock index) plummeted. In the U.S., markets opened in the red, gold (a co...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

2007 pattern being repeated right now? Another "Push Away???"

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The NYSE index kissed the underside of dual resistance at (1) back in 2008. Once resistance held, a big push away from it took place and sellers stepped forward.

NYSE creating a similar pattern again at (2)???

This would NOT be a good place for the Risk On trade if the broad market starts “pushing away” from dual resistance at (2).

Full Disclosure- ...



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Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 20th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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