François Hollande met Marine Le Pen at the Elysée Palace on Saturday in a sign of how the far-right leader has taken centre stage in France in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU.
Mr Hollande gathered France’s most prominent political party leaders — including Ms Pen — for a series of back-to-back meetings as he sought to thrash out a response to Thursday’s UK referendum.
The move comes less than a year before France’s presidential election, in which both Mr Hollande and Ms Le Pen are expected to run. The French president was also meeting Nicolas Sarkozy, his predecessor in the Elysee and another likely candidate in next year’s race.
Britain’s decision to leave the EU has further raised the profile of Ms Le Pen, whose National Front has already notched up a series of impressive results in local elections.
Ms Le Pen used Saturday’s meeting to reiterate her demands for a referendum on France’s membership of the EU, but she said that her calls were rejected and admitted that she was left “with the feeling of having come for nothing”.
She added that there was a clear strategy to make Britain’s exit painful so as to set an example to others. “It is clear that some people want the divorce to be as painful as possible so that others don’t get the idea of going down the same road as the British,” she said after the meeting with Mr Hollande.
The French president is seeking to adopt a tough stance on the UK’s decision — one that would impose costs on Britain for leaving the bloc — not least to limit Ms Le Pen’s calls for a so-called “Frexit”, and to avoid the issue dominating the forthcoming campaign.
On Saturday, Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister, called for a new European project to make the bloc “much more transparent and democratic”, and said that it should be put to citizens via a referendum. “We have never had the courage to
A reader asks if my stance of free trade is consistent with Brexit.
Reader Craig asks
I just thought of this, you are very free trade\open markets. In fact you advocate eliminating all tariffs in the USA. The elimination of tariffs is one of the intended goals of the EU. You however were for Brexit, which most people would think is anti-free market, or anti-free trade. Your stance this seems to be contradictory. Have you changed your stance since you stated that “the first country that practices free trade regardless of what anyone else does will be a winner.” or I’m I missing something?
Yes you are missing something. Many things in fact.
The EU is the biggest anti-free trade organization in the world.
The EU has crop subsidies for the benefit of France at the expense of everyone else in the EU.
The EU has regulations on everything including a provision that regulate abnormal curvature of bananas
The EU imposed sanctions on Russia even though the action hurt their own farmers.
The EU generally supports a financial transaction tax (not passed but it probably will now)
The EU supports penalizing Google
All 28 nations in the EU have to agree on something to make a change to the treaty. France will never give up its agricultural subsidies and tariffs
Ridiculous EU Rules
There are a lot of claims and counter-claims over Ridiculous EU Rules but Business Insider investigated. Here are the ones labeled true.
Banana’s cannot be too bendy.
It is illegal to claim water hydrates you on a bottle of water.
Prunes cannot be promoted for a bowel function effect.
Turnips cannot be labeled “swedes”, except in one place.
Diabetics are banned from driving (passed but not enforced).
Eggs cannot be sold by the dozen, they have to be sold by weight.
In regards to prunes, the EU ruled “The evidence provided is insufficient to establish a cause and effect relationship between the consumption of dried plums of ‘prune’ cultivars (Prunus domestica L.) and maintenance of normal bowel function.”
In regards to eggs, they can be packaged by the dozen, but the package has to include the weight. This is nothing but needless red tape.
I almost have nothing more to say about it. I haven’t been following the news at all about the entire issue.
But I know a thing or two about financial disasters. This is so far from a financial disaster it’s almost ludicrous when I looked at the headlines (although I avoided reading the articles) this morning.
A) Is this bad for the United States?
No, it’s great for the United States. For the next five years, British companies and the UK are going to be negotiating all sorts of trade issues: tariffs, taxes, etc.
Meanwhile, nothing at all changes for the US. So US companies will take advantage of the chaos. There’s really nothing else to say here.
Oh wait, one more thing: the EU will probably try to stimulate the impoverished economies within the EU now that there is one less backstop to do it. There’s basically only Germany left as the only major economic power in the EU.
For once, the US doesn’t have to bail anyone out. It’s all up to Germany.
B) Is this bad for the UK?
Maybe. Like any economic situation. We just have no idea. Some UK companies with heavy commerce in the EU will suffer. And UK citizens, in general, might do better if they don’t have to worry about countries like Greece anymore.
The key is: we have zero clue. Nobody does. There is no prediction right now that is accurate. Just like most people predicted incorrectly about this vote, anyone making a prediction about the UK economy over the next five years is probably wrong (on both sides!)
But… the fact that the US markets are down on this is ludicrous. Will Google have less searches? Will Japan and Detroit sell less cars?
UK Votes to leave EU, markets stunned. Stocks plunge worldwide, gold soars, volatility spikes, pound tanks. Gold COTs are “over the top.” Central banks seem to be losing control of the narrative. Bitcoin jumps. Trump campaign in chaos while polls show dead heat in battleground states.
So called "Hedge Funds" who employ no real hedge fund strategies for the majority of their allotted fund capital are really just marketing themselves as Alpha Players to charge the 2 and 20, when based upon performance and trading strategies deserve just the 1.5 to 2% money managing fee of standard money managers.
Two days ago, when Britain was set to vote for Brexit, we showed the front pages of the local newspapers which fell into two broad camps and could be summarized as follows: "Project Hope" and "Project Fear." Project Hope won. And just as we did then, here is a snapshot of the newspaper and tabloid covers the local population will see on its European Independence day.
Neddless to say, the split in public opinion persists and can be best seen in the covers of the ideologically opposed Daily Express and The Mirror.
Several readers are still wondering why the odds-makers and pollsters got it wrong so badly.
If the odds-makers made money, they got it correct. If they lost money, they got it wrong. That is all there is to it. Odd-makers do not predict results. People betting money do. I have not seen any analysis that suggest the odds-makers lost money. It’s possible they did, but if so it was most likely due to a late voting surge.
The pollsters did blow it badly. I surmise pollsters looked at historical trends to judge a vote that happens once a century or so. Since the pollsters got it so wrong last time, they over compensated this time. ORB was particularly bad.
Surprise surprise. It turns out the online polls were far more accurate. In telephone polls, the pollsters attempt to persuade people to choose. Was there a bit of a hint in that force?
Jo Cox. There was a snapback in favor of remain that started before the murder of Jo Cox. However, it’s now pretty clear, as I suggested all along, that snapback was exaggerated. When pressured to choose, I suspect people said Remain out of sympathy, then voted how they really felt at the voting booth.
Passion and Complacency. It was a given by many that Remain would win. But the passion was with leave. Likely voters for Leave turned out in droves. Voters for remain had less passion than voters for Leave.
The weather. Without a doubt weather played a role. But weather and passion go together. Rain likely kept more Remain voters home than Leave voters.
Lies. Let’s not discount the possibilities of outright lies. In an online survey it’s easy to be honest. When talking to a live person, there is a tendency to say what the other person wants to hear. Also, some people just did not want to admit to others personally they took a stance opposite to that of their party. With online polls people do not have such reservations. Online is impersonal.
Points #2, #7, #5, and #4 resonate strongly in this corner (and in that order).
There is going to be some serious soul searching by the pollsters and analysts following yet another pathetic performance by them.
The most important thing long-term investors need to see today is the market’s response to crisis, courtesy of Dimensional Funds.
The chart above should put the Brexit in perspective. Nobody knows yet what the implications will be, but I’m pretty confident that this is no more significant than any of the six events above. Now of course there are never any guarantees, that’s what risk means. And if you need the money in the next five years, you should not be subjecting it to the risk of the stock market anyhow.
I’m a believer in practicing what I preach, so today in my personal account, I added to the international side of my portfolio. This is definitely not a market call, I am not suggesting the bottom is in, but I also know not to look a gift horse in the mouth. When an entire index falls ten percent in a day, you hold your nose and hit the buy button. Investing is all about giving your future self a chance at a better life, and it’s days like today that determine whether or not you’ll be able to do so via the stock market.
I’m invoking article 50 and resurrecting a Warren Buffett quote, who had this to say when clients reached out to him after stocks fell in 1966:
After the Dow declined from 995 at the peak of February to about 865 in May, I received a few calls from partners suggesting that they thought stocks were going a lot lower. This always raises two questions in my mind: (1) if they knew in February that the Dow was going to 865 in May, why didn’t they let me in on it then and (2) if they didn’t know what was going to happen during the ensuing three months back in February, how do they know in May? There is also a voice or two after any hundred point or so decline suggesting we sell and wait until the future is clearer. Let me again suggest two points: (1) the future has never been clear to me (give us a call when the next few months are
Turnout was indeed the key, but I also questioned the methodology of the latest polls.
Likelihood to Vote
In ORB’s final poll, not only did the likelihood of the two most likely age groups to vote Remain rise dramatically, the likelihood of the most likely age group to vote Leave fell.
On top of that, ORB imputed a 3-1 advantage for Remain on most undecided voters, leaving a mere 2% truly “undecided”.
What happened is all the polls that got it wrong last time, changed their methodology in belief that Matt Singh, was the the latest all-knowing God, just as Nate Silver was in the US.
Neither Nate Silver, nor Matt Singh responded to numerous emails or Tweets. My Tweets to Singh were not combative (until after vote), and in many cases I simply asked polite questions because I did not understand his methods or terminology.
We continue to receive requests for updates to the "Best Stock Market Indicator", which used to be a regular guest post from John Carlucci. Here is an update of the "Carlucci" indicator along with a summary of John's explanation on how he uses it.
As John described it: "The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the "sweet spot" time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money."
Great Britain’s decision to extricate itself from the EU has consequences that are at once far-reaching and unknown. By Friday morning, no market was immune. Great Britain’s currency, the pound, had fallen to its lowest levels since 1985, and the FTSE (an index of the London stock exchange) and DAX (a German stock index) plummeted. In the U.S., markets opened in the red, gold (a co...
I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.
For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....
One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...
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After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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