Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Author Archive for Zero Hedge

Why I Don’t Really Care About Your Product

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Capitalist Exploits.

By: Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

I’ve just gotten off the phone with a gentleman who runs a radio show dedicated to entrepreneurs. He reached out to us as he thought it’d be interesting speaking with me, as an entrepreneur, and as an Angel investing in entrepreneurs.

He wanted to know what we look for in a company that is pitching to us. He wanted to know what type of product or service we’d be interested in. These seem like reasonable questions and while we do have certain industries that we like more than others, the answer I gave was that at the end of the day I don’t really care about the product half as much as I care about the people.

If you’re an entrepreneur pitching your deal to me know this: I care about how and why YOU will make your product/service work, and how it is going to make you and I a lot of money.

Last time I checked, products don’t make companies succeed and thus enrich early investors..it’s PEOPLE who do so.

I was also asked about the most important element or characteristic an entrepreneur needs to have for me to get interested. My answer was plain and simple: passion.

In a recent post about passion I said the following:

Passion is the single fastest way to spur yourself to massive success. This is what makes it is possible to get up early, stay up late, remain inspired and engaged and to forgo other pleasures. It’s what keeps you going when from the outside looking in, the decision appears foolish.

So, I’m looking for PEOPLE to invest in. People with PASSION.

I’d like to clarify this answer somewhat. Passion needn’t be centered around a product or service. Is Richard Branson a passionate guy? Hell yeah. But hang on, you might say, Virgin is involved in multiple business sectors. That’s exactly my point! This is a businessman who is passionate about business. Heck, I’m passionate about business. I’m passionate about multiple businesses, about doing the deals, about negotiating, structuring and so forth. I love business… Period. I’m not necessarily passionate about that latest product launch. However, I AM passionate about the business case for the product launch!


continue reading





How Long Can The Shale Revolution Last?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

A new study has cast serious doubt on whether the much-ballyhooed U.S. shale oil and gas revolution has long-term staying power.

The U.S. produced 8.5 million barrels of oil per day in July of this year — 60 percent more than just three years earlier. That is also the highest rate of production in three decades.

Put another way, since 2011, the U.S. has added 3 million barrels per day in additional capacity to global supplies. Had that volume not come online, oil prices would surely be much higher than they currently are.

That has “revolutionized” the energy industry and geopolitics, as scores of energy analysts have claimed. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. oil production will hit 9.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, and gradually decline to 7.5 million bpd by 2040.

This would allow the U.S. to be one of the world’s top oil producers for an extended period of time. With such an achievement now at hand, many analysts are predicting an era of American dominance in geopolitics. For example, in an op-ed on Oct. 20, columnist Joe Nocera considered a “world without OPEC,” in which U.S. oil production soon kills off the oil cartel.

Or consider this rather triumphalist piece in Foreign Affairs from earlier this year, where two former National Security Council members who worked under President George W. Bush boasted that the recent surge in oil production “should help put to rest declinist thinking” and “sharpen the instruments of U.S. statecraft.” In the following issue, Ed Morse of Citibank went further. “Despite its doubters and haters, the shale revolution in oil and gas production is here to stay,” he declared.

But a new report throws cold water on the thinking that U.S. shale production will be around for the long haul. The Post Carbon Institute conducted an analysis of the top seven oil and top seven natural gas plays, which together account for 89 percent of current shale oil production and 88 percent of shale gas production.

 

The report found that both shale oil and shale gas production will peak before 2020. More importantly, the report’s author, David Hughes, says oil production will decline much more quickly than the EIA…
continue reading





Algos Please Ignore: Citi Slashes Previously Reported Net Income Due To “Legal Investigations” Over FX Rigging Probe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UPDATE:

  • *CITIGROUP SAYS DOJ, CFTC, OTHERS PROBING CITI’S FOREX BUSINESS
  • *CITIGROUP SAYS IT’S FULLY COOPERATING WITH PROBES, INQUIRIES

From 10-Q: Foreign Exchange Matters

Regulatory Actions: Government and regulatory agencies in the U.S., including the Antitrust Division and the Criminal Division of the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as well as agencies in other jurisdictions, including the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority and the Swiss Competition Commission, are conducting investigations or making inquiries regarding Citigroup’s foreign exchange business.

 

Citigroup is fully cooperating with these and related investigations and inquiries.

Nothing to see here move along:

  • *CITIGROUP ADJUSTS 3Q DOWN ON $600M INCREASE IN LEGAL ACCRUAL
  • *CITIGROUP FINL IMPACT LOWERS CITI’S 3Q ’14 NET  TO $2.8B FROM $3.45B
  • *CITIGROUP CITES REGULATORY INQUIRIES & INVESTIGATIONS

When did company earnings become like GDP: first release is highest, second is lower, third lowest? Aren’t you glad you bailed this trustful people out?

Citi Statement:

Citi announced today that it is adjusting downward its third quarter 2014 financial results, from those reported on October 14, 2014, due to a $600 million increase in legal accruals.

 

The increase resulted from rapidly-evolving regulatory inquiries and investigations, including very recent communications with certain regulatory agencies related to previously-disclosed matters.

 

The financial impact lowers Citi’s third quarter 2014 net income from $3.4 billion to $2.8 billion.

 

 

And this happened…

 

As a gentle reminder…






Broken Stocks, Battered Bullion, & Bruised Crude

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If a broken window is good for the Keynesian economy, then today's broken market (worse than the 2013 Nasdaq blackout) was certainly good for stocks as exchanges broke left and right, futures volume exploded and S&P almost hit 2,000 all on the back of a 2-week old headline from Japan. Today's market was volatile… everywhere. Silver and gold were smashed lower (-2.2% & -4.1% on week); US Dollar was pumped higher (+0.5% on the week) but weakened after GDP; Treasury yields unch today, notably flatter on week (30Y unch – almost broke 3.00% today, 5Y +9bps); HY Credit wider in whippy range (+10bps on week). VIX tested to 14 but closed near 15. Stocks end mixed: Trannies -1.2% (worst in a week), Nasdaq unch, Dow +1.1% (V +145 of Dow's 220pts). Post-FOMC – Energy is down 1%, Utes/Healthcare +1.6%.

 

Despite broken markets and old headlines, the ramp to 2,000 failed… and stocks roundtripped on the breakage before a late meltup

Post-FOMC, Trannies are red…

 

Post-FOMC, Healthcare and Utilities are th ebig winners, Energy the losers…

 

Trannies weak today, Dow strong on Visa…

 

VIX ended under 15…

 

Credit remains notably less impressed with things this week than stocks…

 

Now where have we seen this decoupling before?

 

Treasury yields closed the day unchanged to very marginally higher – but notably flatter on the week… notable vol intraday around GDP

 

The USD extended its post-FOMC gains led by JPY weakness… not that after GDP data hit, USD sold off

 

Commodities were sold today with gold and silver clubbed like baby seals…

 

With silver down 5% post-FOMC and gold and crude down 2% (WTI around $81)

 

Charts:Bloomberg





Shadow Banking Assets Increase By $5 Trillion To Record $75 Trillion, 120% Of Global GDP

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Call it Monitoring Universe of Non-Bank Financial Intermediation (MUNFI), Other Financial Intermediaries (OFI), non-bank financial intermediation or, easiest of all, by its widely accepted name, Shadow banking. Whatever you want to call it, the latest just released estimate by the Financial Stability Board of how many assets current exist outside of the regular banking system (and are thus in the shadows) around the globe should explain why these day the one thing central bankers are most worried about is the uncontrolled proliferation of shadow assets (technically it is liabilities, but that is a different discussion). The reason: according to the broadest measure of shadow banking, it grew by $5 trillion in 2013 to reach $75 trillion. This represents some 25% of total financial assets and when expressed in terms of global GDP, it amounts some 120% of global GDP.

We are not exactly sure which is scarier: that total financial assets amount to about 500% of world GDP or that about $75 trillion in financial leverage is just sitting there, completely unregulated and designed with one purpose in mind: to make billionaires into trillionaires (with taxpayers footing the bill of their failure).

Some of the other findings:

  • MUNFI assets grew by 7% in 2013 (adjusted for foreign exchange movements), driven in part by a general increase in valuation of global financial markets. In contrast total bank assets were relatively stable. Within the headline global growth figure of MUNFI assets exists considerable differences across jurisdictions and entities.
  • This year, the FSB continued to refine the shadow banking measure to produce an estimate that more tightly focuses on shadow banking risks, narrowing down the broad MUNFI estimate by filtering out entities that are not part of a credit intermediation chain and those that are prudentially consolidated into a banking group. Using more granular data reported by 23 jurisdictions, the broad MUNFI estimate of non-bank financial intermediation was narrowed down from $62 trillion to $35 trillion.
  • Based on the narrowed down estimate, the growth rate of shadow banking for this smaller sample in 2013 was +2.4%, instead of +6.6% for the MUNFI (using the same smaller sample). The narrowing down approach remains work in progress and will improve further over time.
  • By absolute size, advanced economies have the largest shadow banking


continue reading





Which Director Are Politicians Listening To About Ebola?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with no comment…

 

 

Source: Cagle





Broken Market (Worse Than 2013 Nasdaq Blackout) Just Fails To Send S&P Back Over 2,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

To ‘prove’ that the end of QE3 is not a negative for stocks and to ‘confirm’ the Fed’s narrative that the economy is surging (despite all the unsustainable one-offs in the GDP print), algos are tearing stocks higher, targeting the crucial 2,000 S&P level… thanks to 2-week old headlines from Japan, a broken options market, and the NYSE unable to report trades… As Nanex notes “this is a bigger event than the 2013 market blackout”

Despite the best efforts the best they could manage was 1999.40 before the reality of a not-broken market kicked in…

 

Of course away from the broken equity markets things are not as exuberant…

 

*  *  *

So just as the market broke 2 weeks ago at the lows.. now it is breaking at the highs… to enable moar highs… PPT has become DTPT (down-tick prevention team)





Bad Debt At China’s – And The World’s – Largest Bank Surges By Most Ever

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A week ago, when showing the following chart of Chinese housing trends…

… we reported that the “burst Chinese housing bubble leads to first annual price decline since 2012“, and warned that it is only a matter of time before both China’s GDP, extensively reliant on housing construction, as well as Chinese bank assets, primarily consisting of housing-related loans and other fixed income exposure, take a major hit

This happened yesterday, when in an exchange filing China’s Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the biggest bank in both China and the entire world, reported its biggest jump in bad loans since at least 2006.

Specifically, ICBC’s nonperforming loans rose to 115.5 billion yuan in September from 105.7 billion yuan in June. The increase was the biggest since quarterly data became available. Nonperforming credit accounted for 1.06 percent of total advances.

It wasn’t just ICBC: as the chart from the WSJ below shows, bad debt rose at every single other major bank in China as well:

According to Bloomberg, nonperforming loans rose 9 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, the Beijing-based bank said in an exchange filing yesterday. This increase surpassed the rise in net income which gained 7.7 percent from a year earlier to 72.4 billion yuan ($11.8 billion).

The problem for China is two-fold. On one hand as Bloomberg observes, “a struggling Chinese economy is weighing on ICBC’s share price and is poised to drag the company to its weakest full-year profit growth since at least 2001 as more borrowers default.”

The second problem is that as ICBC felt first hand (and surely underreported, because this is China after all), the soaring bad debt notionals make it next to impossible for the PBOC to inject even more good debt which would promptly turn into NPLs until it ultimately drowns China leading to the mass defaults which the Politburo has been avoiding for so long.

“ICBC remains under pressure as bad loans in China continue to rise,” Zheng Chunming, a Shanghai-based analyst at Capital Securities Corp., said by phone yesterday. “The operating environment for companies is getting more difficult as China’s economy faces downward pressure.”

Furthermore, as noted above, since ICBC is the world’s largest bank by assets, it has…
continue reading





This Is The 12-Days-Old News That Just Spiked USDJPY And Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Day after day after day this ‘market’ is manipulated and managed by headlines that memory-less machines read and act upon. Today – yet again – at 210am Japan time, Nikkei news decides it is time to print these headlines:

*JAPAN GPIF TO CUT JAPAN DEBT ALLOCATION TO 35%, RAISE DOMESTIC STOCK ALLOCATION TO 25%: NIKKEI

And sure enough JPY explodes instantly in an attempt to spark momentum. This is not news (it’s a constant headline every day since October 18th) as Abe sacrifices his economy and his people’s economic future for an uptick in stocks.

 

The algos react and lift USDJPY

 

and of course that means US equities surge…

and this is what happened as the headline hit…

 

 

and volume explodes…

 

The irony in all of this: this is not news, its 12 days old.

 

But when betting on algo stupidity and their 15 millisecond memory, nobody has lost yet.





Market Breaks As Stocks Explode Higher On Algo-Triggering Headline

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

CBOE: AS OF 13:07ET OPRA NOT DISSEMINATION QUOTES,LAST SALES

 

This was right as the Nikkei headlines hit and e-mini volume exploded.

And here is the NYSE confirming that stocks are now soaring higher on “critical Issue”, aka broken market:

Confused what this means: simply said, virtually all quotes, and certainly options, are stale and unreliable, even as dark pools, internalizers and other ATS are filing orders based on 1 hour old data.

In short: a total mess.


Visualizing some of the berserk trades during the outage courtesy of Nanex:

 

What a total farce!





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Why I Don't Really Care About Your Product

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Capitalist Exploits.

By: Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

I've just gotten off the phone with a gentleman who runs a radio show dedicated to entrepreneurs. He reached out to us as he thought it'd be interesting speaking with me, as an entrepreneur, and as an Angel investing in entrepreneurs.

He wanted to know what we look for in a company that is pitching to us. He wanted to know what type of product or service we'd be interested in. These seem like reasonable questions and while we do have certain industries that we like more than others, the answer I gave was that at the end of the day I don't real...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Why Mitochondria Matter

Patrick starts by reviewing what a "broken record" is. (Sadly, I know and you probably do too.) He notes that biotechnology has undergone more enormous changes than the music delivery industry, and that most people do not have a proper appreciation of how big this "biotech transformation" is. Then, he reviews what mitochondria are, how they work and why they are so important to us.

Within all the cells of our bodies, microchondria produce energy - the energy supply needed to run the cells' activities. Without the ability to take nutrients and convert them to energy, via these little cellular machines, we are dead. And that, in brief, is why mitochondria are important. 

Illustration of a Mitochondrion by Kelvinsong, modified by ...



more from Ilene

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Chart School

Visualizing GDP: A Look Inside the Q3 Advance Estimate

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the Q3 2014 Advance Estimate.

The chart below is my way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. I've used a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Let's take a closer look at the cont...



more from Chart School

Insider Scoop

Jennings Capital Downgrades Ballard Power Systems

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BLDP Lake View: Ballard Power Systems 'Making Progress' Morning Market Movers

Jennings Capital downgraded Ballard Power Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BLDP) in a report issued Thursday from Buy to Hold and lowered its price target from $5 to $3.

Analyst Dev Bhangui noted that the company "reported Q3/14 results that were below our and consensus estimates. EPS were ($0.02) versus JCI and consensus of ($0.01). Revenue and gross margin m...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bullish conviction returns, but market likely to consolidate its V-bottom

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Bulls showed renewed backbone last week and drew a line in the sand for the bears, buying with gusto into weakness as I suggested they would. After all, this was the buying opportunity they had been waiting for. As if on cue, the start of the World Series launched the rapid market reversal and recovery. However, there is little chance that the rally will go straight up. Volatility is back, and I would look for prices to consolidate at this level before making an attempt to go higher. I still question whether the S&P 500 will ultimately achieve a new high before year end.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then o...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of October 27th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Enjoy!

(As usual, use your PSW user name and password to sign in. You may also take a free trial.) 

 

#455292918 / gettyimages.com

 

...

more from SWW

Market Shadows

Bill Ackman's Big Pharma Trade Is Making Wall Street A Super Awkward Place

 

#452525522 / gettyimages.com

Intro by Ilene

If you're following Valeant's proposed takeover (or merger) of Allergan and the lawsuit by Allergan against Valeant and notorious hedge fund manager William Ackman, for insider trading this is a must-read article. 

Linette Lopez describes the roles played by key Wall Street hedge fund owners--Jim Chanos, John Paulson, and Mason Morfit, a major shareholder in Valeant. Linette goes through the con...



more from Paul

Option Review

LUV Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

There is lots of action in Southwest Airlines Co. November expiry call options today ahead of the air carrier’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Thursday. Among the large block trades initiated throughout the trading session, there appears to be at least one options market participant establishing a call spread in far out of the money options. It looks like the trader purchased a 4,000-lot Nov 37/39 call spread at a net premium of $0.40 apiece. The trade makes money if shares in Southwest rally 9.0% over the current price of $34.32 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $37.40, with maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract available in the event that shares jump more than 13% to $39.00 by expiration. In September, the stock tou...



more from Caitlin

Digital Currencies

Goodbye War On Drugs, Hello Libertarian Utopia. Dominic Frisby's Bitcoin: The Future of Money?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Now that bitcoin has subsided from speculative bubble to functioning currency (see the price chart below), it’s safe for non-speculators to explore the whole “cryptocurrency” thing. So…is bitcoin or one of its growing list of competitors a useful addition to the average person’s array of bank accounts and credit cards — or is it a replacement for most of those things? And how does one make this transition?

With his usual excellent timing, London-based financial writer/actor/stand-up comic Dominic Frisby has just released Bitcoin: The Future of Money? in which he explains all this in terms most readers will have no tr...



more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



more from Pharmboy



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>