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Conrad Black: The Saudis Fear Western Alliance With Iran; Crashing Oil Is Their Retaliation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Conrad Black via The National Post,

Responses to the decline in world oil prices have been mystifying — flummoxing, in fact. The secretary general of OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), Abdullah Al-Badri, said last week that speculation was to blame for the decline by 15% since the last increase in production. He ceremoniously denied that there was any attempt by the cartel to discourage production from shale or oil sands, or to put political pressure on Iran or Russia. In general, the world’s media have bought into the theory that discouragement of production from new sources that would reduce oil imports, especially by the United States, is the real reason for increased production and reduced price.

But Al-Badri has a limited mandate to give the agreed official line of OPEC and has no authority to speak for the motives of the individual member states, and even less standing to mind-read the authorities in those countries and speak for them. OPEC is a slippery cartel at the best of times, many of whose members are virtually, if not actually, at war with each other; the member states don’t necessarily speak truthfully among themselves and anything uttered on behalf of the whole group should be treated with caution. Some member states, including Iraq, Libya and Nigeria, do not really speak for the oil-exporting regions in the country, and there are many other oil-producing countries that either do not export, or even if they do, are not in OPEC, including Canada, Australia, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The explanation of speculation is nonsense, as no sane speculator would encourage the sale of oil at less than its real market value other than to himself, and where the claimed OPEC production is 30 million barrels a day, no unofficial speculation would cause the sort of gyrations in oil prices that have occurred. In general, the decline in China’s rate of economic growth, and conservation and alternate energy-encouragement measures in much of the West and the steady advance of increased domestic production in the United States, explain much of the price reduction. But there is no doubt that Saudi Arabia, as the world’s leading oil exporter, has increased production, whether it is advising Mr. Al-Badri of it or not, and there is no…
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Why Germany Objects To ECB QE (In 1 Crazy Chart)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While “lowflation” continues to stun central bankers around the world, Zee Germans remain stoic on the sidelines (courtesy of Jens ‘nein nein nein’ Weidmann’s last voice of reason left in the world) in their derision of the ECB’s sovereign QE efforts. If you wondered why they are so vehemntly opposed to the printing of money… perhaps the following chart will help explain – just how quickly a nation can swing from ‘zee stabilitee’ to ‘zee hyperinflation’.

 

Source: Goldman Sachs





The Global Monetary Reset Is Under Way

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Zero Hedge comments from AI Tinfoil,

The Global Monetary Reset is under way, but people have not noticed it yet. The key is the move to zero interest rates.

Government debt almost everywhere is too high to ever pay off, let alone pay a traditional rate of interest on.  As debts come due, including as bond issues mature, the only option governments have is to roll over the debt and accumulated interest, and the only way they can afford to do that is if money printing is a continued practice and interest rates are at or near zero.  QE is the latest name for money-printing, inflating the amount of currency available.  Logically, QE dilutes the value of a currency by inflating the number of currency units in circulation, and, theoretically, should lead to price inflation.  However, if all nations engage in monetary expansion, the effects of money printing on exchange rates may be effectively concealed by a balance of expansion.  Or, as in the case of the US dollar, a currency with the status of world reserve currency may be expanded with relative impunity by the nation creating that currency, effectively exporting its inflation to the rest of the world that continues to sell to that nation, or trades in a monetary system based on that currency. Injections of QE into an economy with weak fundamentals is likely to result in speculative bubbles as QE funds show up in investors’ hands and not in the hands of general consumers. 

Inflation has become a necessary element of economic life according to the mainstream meme of economists.  Inflation is a key strategy in coping with immense and increasing debts.  Debt so large that it cannot be paid must be inflated away or governments must default.  Deflation makes current debt increasingly difficult to pay or service out of deflating GDP and tax revenue. 

Exporting nations have engaged in competitive exchange rate reductions to gain or maintain competitiveness for their exports.  A strong currency hurts export competitiveness but lowers the cost of imports.  A weak currency raises the cost of living of residents who must buy imports – a common feature for nations that import oil, for example.  There is a necessary balancing act between export competitiveness and consumer price inflation, regulated often through exchange…
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The Hidden Leverage In “Shiny Objects” – Banks Sell Record Amount Of Equity-Linked Structured Notes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Banks are selling a record amount of U.S. structured notes tied to the stocks of fast-growing, volatile technology companies such as Facebook and Twitter. As Bloomberg Briefs reports, sales of securities linked to Facebook soared to $457.6 million this year, more than double the $204.2 million issued during the same period of 2013. Bloomberg notes that investors are flocking to products tied to social media companies, where more volatile share prices help banks improve structured-note terms that have been hurt by low interest rates… and issuers are "trying to put shiny objects in front of the client," as the BTFD mentality gets increased leverage (and downside risk). Investors have purchased $1.88 billion of structured notes linked to the 10 most popular technology stocks so far this year – 31% more than the same period in 2013 – and $32.7bn equity- and commodity-linked notes this year alone (up ~10% YoY). As we warned last week, counterparty risks are rising.

 

 

While we showed the payoff structures of various notes last week, Morgan Stanley sold $13.9 million of notes linked to the S&P GSC Brent Crude Index. The 20-month securities, issued Dec. 10, pay 1.5 times the gains of that index, and proportionate losses if the gauge declines, with all principal at risk, according to a prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The 7 most actively traded equity-linked structured notes this week were all energy-related…

And by way of example – this is the performance of the most-actively traded equity-linked structured note this week… 50% capita loss in 4 months

Europeans love these deals…

Spanish buyers of structured products are sacrificing capital protection and accepting longer maturities as they chase returns amid record-low interest rates.

 

Maturities of three to four years were common in past years, but "we are now quoting seven years" for products that pay above-market coupons, said Alfonso de Miguel, head of global structured solutions at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Madrid. At Banco Santander SA, terms have risen as high as eight years, according to a Madrid-based spokesman for the bank.

 

 

Societe Generale is selling more capital-at-risk products that tie returns to the worst-performing of several assets, Munoz said. The


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The Keynesian PhD Brigade Strikes Again: Sweden’s Riksbank Joins The ZIRP Mania

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

Folks, it’s a tyranny of the PhDs. Recently the central bank of Sweden was subject to a withering tirade by that oracle of Keynesian rubbish, professor Paul Krugman, who accused it of “sado-monetarism” for leaving the Swedish economy exposed to the mythical economic disease of “deflation”.

So the Riksbank threw caution to the wind, and a few months ago joined the global central bank plunge into ZIRP and promised to ladle out free money until at least 2016. To leave no doubt about its intentions, it is currently cranking up plans for “direct lending”, “asset purchases”, negative interest rates (N-ZIRP) and the rest of the recently invented central bankers’ voodoo kit. Anything to achieve its sacred 2% inflation target!

So still another central bank has been infected by the 2% inflation shibboleth—-a folly the greatest central banker of our era dispatched recently with a single sentence:

Mr. Volcker,who believes the Fed’s main goal is to defend the dollar’s stability, said he doesn’t even understand why the Fed adopted a 2% target for inflation. He asked, “Do we want prices to double every generation?”

Yes, today’s Keynesian central bankers don’t particularly care what happens in the next 30 years or even 30 months. It’s all about the noise-ridden “in-coming” data and whether the gap between actual production and employment, one the one hand, and a theoretical figment called full employment or “potential” GDP, on the other, has been closed.

It is downright amazing that the $75 trillion global economy is in thrall to the stupid math models of a couple of hundred PhDs. And these so-called DSGE models (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) are, indeed,  just plain stupid.

Not a single major economy in the world is a closed system. Nor is the capacity to produce iron ore, petroleum liquids, sheet steel, autos, machine tools, solar panels, networking gear, server farms, e-commerce order fulfillment, warehousing services, quick-serve restaurant meals, shopping boutiques, violin lessons or yoga classes fixed and measureable. Instead, it is a giant, swirling global flux driven by billions of prices and competitive dynamics that continuously bring new capacity into being, put old and obsolete capacity out to pasture and stretch, bend and extend existing “capacity” in ways that are too deep in the economic weeds to observe, measure or manage.

Likewise, the other component of the DSGE—so-called “aggregate demand”—-is also a fairy tale. That is, “spending”, as…
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Two More Cops Shot After Yesterday’s Brutal New York “Execution”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just a day after the premeditated execution of two NYPD officers in New York by a deranged, suicidal psychopath, two more police officers have been shot in America today. In St.Louis, an off-duty officer was shot multiple times and remains in critical condition while in Tarpon Springs, Florida, 45-year-old officer Charles Kondek – a 17-year-veteran and father of 5 children – was shot and killed early Sunday morning.

As Fox Boston reports,

Florida authorities say a police officer was shot and killed in Tarpon Springs early Sunday.

 

 

The Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement that police have arrested 23-year-old Marco Antonio Parilla Jr. on suspicion of first-degree murder.

 

The Tarpon Springs Police Department identified the fallen officer as 45-year-old Charles Kondek, a 17-year veteran of the local police department. Originally from New York, Kondek had previously served on the New York City Police Department for more than five years, authorities said.

 

Authorities say Kondek responded to a call for service shortly after 2 a.m. Police said the suspect shot at the officer and then fled the scene in a vehicle and crashed into a pole and another vehicle. He was then apprehended by police at that location.

 

The Tampa Bay Times reports that Kondek was the father of five children.

As KSDK  further adds reports:

An off-duty St. Louis police officer was shot multiple times Friday. It happened near the intersection of Breman Avenue and North 25th Street at approximately 3:55 p.m.

 

Captain Michael Sack says the victim, a 28-year-old man with four years experience with the department, is in critical stable condition with injuries that are believed to be non-life threatening. Capt. Sack says the officer was shot several times in his lower extremities.

 

“An off duty officer had been driving down this street in his personal vehicle when he came across an occupant or occupants in another vehicle,” described Capt. Sack. “We don’t know what transpired, but the occupant or occupants of that other vehicle opened fire at the officer.”

 

The officer was in surgery Friday evening, so the department says it wouldn’t be able to interview him until Saturday.

 

“He was struck


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Meet Joe Lewis – The $200 Million “British Madoff”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an oddly familiar echo of Bernie Madoff’s massive ponzi collapse, The Telegraph reports, a currency trader has vanished along with £130  million in investors’ cash in an alleged fraud that could be one of the biggest in recent British history. Joe Lewis, 59, is being investigated by police over almost $200 million which he claimed was in clients’ accounts (incluidng professional footballers and golfers) but now no longer exists. In a stunning email sent to clients 2 weeks ago, Lewis admitted that his company – JL Trading – had stopped operating in 2009 (after suffering heavy losses on disastrous FX trades), adding that “I have covered up my mistakes from everyone including my staff, no one else knew what was happening.” The father of two has since failed to answer emails and phone calls, and at his Istanbul apartment a doorman said he had not been seen for a few weeks.

 

 

As The Telegraph reports,

In an email sent a month earlier – in response to growing concern from investors trying to get their money out – he claimed that his company was having “a stressful time” releasing $197 million (£126 million) from American brokers because of US red tape.

 

 

Mr Lewis admitted that his company, JL Trading, had stopped operating in 2009 after suffering heavy losses on disastrous foreign exchange deals.

 

He confessed in the email that he had continued taking people’s money for the next five years in an attempt to turn his fortunes around, but that all those attempts had failed.

Whatever the truth, the reality for investors – many of them British – is that they have each lost a small fortune.

A civil action to freeze his accounts and seize any assets has also been started. The businessman, who traded from a smart residential address in Istanbul with views over the Bosporus, is understood to have left Turkey some weeks ago. His adult son said he had no idea where his father was. One report suggested he had briefly visited relations near Hull and may now be in the Far East.

In the email sent on Dec 3, Mr Lewis wrote:

“Dear investor,

 

I am writing to


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Hacking Collective Anonymous Says FBI Is Lying, “North Korea Is Not Source Of Hack”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Having confirmed unequivocally, in a statement by the FBI and reiterated by President Obama, that "the North Korean government is responsible" for hacking Sony, it appears the YouTube-less 'evidence' the FBI provided is being questioned by the hacking-collective 'Anonymous' and former Lulzsec hacker Sabu. As The Daily Beast reports, the hackers blasted, the North Koreans "don’t have the technical capabilities," and added "we all know the hacks didn't come from North Korea, and "all of the evidence FBI cites would be trivial things to do if a hacker was trying to misdirect attention to DPRK." Meanwhile, on Saturday afternoon, Guardians of Peace, the hacking group that’s so far claimed responsibility for wreaking havoc on Sony, posted a message online mocking the FBI’s investigation – a series of gyrating animated bodies shrieking, "You are an idiot!"

 

As The Daily Beast reports,

While the FBI, President Obama, and George Clooney seem thoroughly convinced that the Guardians of Peace are the work of Pyongyang—the name “Guardians of Peace” comes from a quote used by former President Richard Nixon describing South Korea—many hackers online have questioned the allocation of blame from Day One, including former Lulzsec hacker turned government information Sabu, who maintains they “don’t have the technical capabilities,” and Anonymous, who wrote, “we all know the hacks didn't come from North Korea,” and threatened to launch further hacks against Sony if they don't release the film online.

 

Some of the world’s leading cybersecurity experts have also questioned whether North Korea is responsible for hacking Sony, claiming a decided lack of evidence or that it came from a group posing as North Korea as misdirection, such as Brett Thomas, chief technology officer of Redwood City, California-based online services company Vindicia:

* * *

 

And it appears the alleged Sony hackers are not impressed…

On Saturday afternoon, Guardians of Peace, the hacking group that’s so far claimed responsibility for wreaking havoc on Sony, posted a message online mocking the FBI’s investigation.


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Wall Street Gets A Merry Christmas Main Street Gets Keynesian Coal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

Here we are going into what should be by all accounts one of the most festive times of the year. If one were to listen to most of the commentary coming from the mouths of what are proclaimed as the “smart-crowd” you would think we should be dancing in the streets, buying everything, and anything within arms reach, and much, much more.

Yet, anyone who owns, runs, or works for a business will tell you in private they are either paralyzed by uncertainty, or worse, they’re just scared to death. It just seems nothing makes sense as to what they know – and what they’re being told they should believe.

I talk directly with people who are entrepreneurs and business professionals. One glaringly impression that gets made to me over, and over again, is they literally can’t make heads or tails out of not only who to believe, but also what data to believe.

Everything they once thought they knew has not only been stood on its head, but in many cases the data or information they once used as touchstones as “to keep an eye on the ball” as to where the economy is possibly going – has now turned into a game having more in common trying to watch a ball with a street magician. And in my opinion; it just got a whole lot worse.

 

 

Turn on any “news” outlet and what will be touted in some form of giddy-esque fashion is the markets are once again hitting new all time highs. And not only will this Christmas be better than expected, it will be better because people will now enjoy a sudden rush of unrealized gains now that gasoline is plummeting. Sounds like a festive holiday season made to order.

Well it is, just not for Main St. Yes, it will cost one less to drive that boulevard, but stopping and shopping? Probably better to stay in the car and drive around looking at all the pretty displays. It’s cheaper, maybe more memorable, and the chances of being shot drop lower than a bargain basement discount.

If things have been so good for retailing, and the stock market the once “gauge of gauges” for optimism and health of an economy is once again at…
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Forget Lost Decade, Japan Has Been ‘Losing’ Since WWII

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Forget lost decade (or two), Japan’s economic growth trajectory has fallen, almost unbroken, since the end of World War II… just one more decade, we are sure is all it will take to revive this Keynesian catastrophe… (one way or another)…

 

Source: Goldman Sachs

Keep trying it though… Abenomics – FTMFW!!!

 

Any month, quarter, year, decade now…





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Conrad Black: The Saudis Fear Western Alliance With Iran; Crashing Oil Is Their Retaliation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Conrad Black via The National Post,

Responses to the decline in world oil prices have been mystifying — flummoxing, in fact. The secretary general of OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), Abdullah Al-Badri, said last week that speculation was to blame for the decline by 15% since the last increase in production. He ceremoniously denied that there was any attempt by the cartel to discourage production from shale or oil sands, or to put politi...



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Phil's Favorites

Maybe Oil Goes to $70 on its Way to $40

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds

A retrace that fills open gaps and kisses the 50-day moving average surprises everyone who was confident oil was heading straight down to $40/barrel.

When the conventional media ordains oil inevitably dropping to $40/barrel, I start looking for something else to happen--like oil going to $70/barrel. There are number of reasons this isn't as farfetched as it might seem at the moment.
  1. The huge gap begging to be filled on the chart of the Energy Select Sector exchange-traded fund XLE and a bunch of other energy-sector stocks and etfs. Gaps like this usually get filled sooner rather than later.
 

2. A bounce back to the 50-day moving average on the WTI oil index around $73 would be unsurprising. As the old sayi...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Chart School

Can you make a living trading Springs and UpThrusts?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

We tell the truth about trading springs and upthrusts, no holding back!

More from RTT Tv

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net Investing Quote...

..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”…

Richard D. Wyckoff
.."Markets are constantly in a state of unce...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

#PreMarket Prep Guest List For The Week Of December 22, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Brian Kelly, Curtis Erickson and Jerremy Newsome will all be guests on this shortened week of Benzinga's #PreMarket Prep broadcast, sponsored by Nadex.

Be sure to tune in at 8:00 am EST Monday-Friday here to tune in to the exciting show.

Don’t miss our #FedForecast2015 event either!

You can learn more about that here.

Monday, December 22, 8:35 a.m.

Jonathan Corpina (...



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Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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