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How Argentina Became A Bad Debtor

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following this evening's lengthy finger-pointing lecture from Argentina's Kicillof, Argentina formally defaulted. Shortly thereafter the hoped-for private bank bailout deal also failed leaving the default process likely to take a while. So how has Argentina defaulted three times in the last 28 years?

Submitted by Nicolas Cachanosky via the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

This is a complex case that has produced different, if not opposite, interpretations by analysts and policy makers. Some of these interpretations, however, are not well-founded.

How Argentina Became a Bad Debtor

An understanding of the Argentine situation requires historical context.

At the beginning of the 1990s, Argentina implemented the Convertibility Law as a measure to restrain the central bank and put an end to the hyperinflation that took place in the late 1980s. This law set the exchange rate at one peso per US dollar and stated that the central bank could only issue pesos in fixed relation to the amount of US dollars that entered the country. The Convertibility Law was, then, more than just a fixed-exchange rate scheme. It was legislation that made the central bank a currency board where pesos were convertible to dollars at a “one to one” ratio. However, because the central bank had some flexibility to issue pesos with respect to the inflow of US dollars, it is better described as a “heterodox” rather than “orthodox,” currency board.

Still, under this scheme, Argentina could not monetize its deficit as it did in the 1980s under the government of Ricardo Alfonsín. It was the monetization of debt that produced the high inflation that ended in hyperinflation. Due to the Convertibility Law during the 1990s, Carlos Menem’s government could not finance the fiscal deficit with newly created money. So, rather than reduce the deficit, Menem changed the way it was financed from a money-issuance scheme to a foreign-debt scheme. The foreign debt was in US dollars and this allowed the central bank to issue the corresponding pesos.

The debt issued during the 1990s took place in an Argentina that had already defaulted on its debt six times since its independence from Spain in 1816 (arguably, one-third of Argentine history has taken place in a state of default), while Argentina also exhibited questionable institutional protection of contracts and property rights. With domestic savings destroyed after years of high…
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Aldous Huxley Vs George Orwell

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via FatPita.net,

 

*  *  *

So, who's right?





Why The 10Y Yield Is Heading To 1.5% In 1 Simple Chart

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Gavekal via Advisor Perspectives,

Last week we wrote that the bond market is following perfectly the reduction of QE with new 1-year lows and with today’s bond moves that trend is still firmly in place.

In what may seem counter intuitive, treasury bond yields have had a high positive correlation with the rate of Federal Reserve asset purchases. When the rate of Fed asset purchases rises, bond yields rise, and vice versa. If one thinks of Fed asset purchases as stimulative to growth and inflation expectations (the two components that make up risk-free bond yields) then this positive relationship makes sense.

In the charts below we measure the rate of Fed asset accumulation by measuring the three month difference in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. Since the Fed has scripted out the end of QE, we can easily model out how this rate of change will proceed for the remainder of the year.

We then compare the rate of change in Fed assets to the 30-year bond

 

the 10-year bond… 1.5% by year-end

 

and junk spreads inverted

 

The link between Fed asset accumulation and these various bond yields is unmistakable, especially for longer duration bonds, and this simple model shows how even lower bond yields may be in the offing as the Fed puts on the breaks. For junk bonds, this seems to portend higher spreads, which may help to put the recent widening of spreads in context.

*  *  *

So – tapering is tightening on risk assets…





Ebola Epidemic Update: US Citizen Dies In Nigeria, Virus Poses Threat To Britain, Liberia Declares State Of Emergency

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a world rife with geopolitical calamities, it is easy to forget that west Africa is currently suffering the worst Ebola epidemic in history. Here are the latest updates:

  • State Department has confirmed that one U.S. citizen died from Ebola in Nigeria after being infected in Liberia. 
  • Victim who died in Lagos was bound for U.S., and was an American citizen 
  • U.K. Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said the virus poses a threat to Britain, and will hold an emergency meeting.
  • Ebola center run by Americans closed after Liberia disturbances
  • Two Peace Corps volunteers under observation after coming into contact with individual who later died of Ebola
  • Sierra Leone’s top Ebola doctor dead after contracting virus
  • Hong Kong woman tests negative for Ebola
  • Gabon measures to prevent Ebola outbreak: Police checks at borders, airports, land crossings
  • Latest death toll in West Africa is 672, as of July 27 release: WHO

More about the formerly anonymous person who died over the weekend in Nigeria after collapsing at the airport and turns out was a US citizen:

An Ebola victim who was allowed to board an international flight was an American citizen on his way home to the United States, it has emerged.

Patrick Sawyer worked for the Liberian government and was visiting his sister there when he developed symptoms while on a plane to Nigeria. He was quarantined on arrival in Lagos and died on Friday.

 

His wife, Decontee, 34, who like Mr Sawyer is originally from Liberia, currently at the heart of the terrifying Ebola outbreak, said he had been due to travel on to America where he could have become Patient Zero in a US epidemic.

 

The 40-year-old father-of-three is believed to have contracted the disease from his sister, whom he was caring for without knowing she had Ebola.

 

Mr Sawyer took two flights to get to Nigeria from Liberia, where he had attended his sister’s funeral. The first took him from Monrovia to Lome in Togo, where he boarded a plane to Lagos. He collapsed at the airport on landing.

 

The Nigerian authorities have closed the hospital he was treated at, First Consultants Hospital in Obalende, one of the busiest parts of the city with a population of around


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Thank You Obamacare – California Health Insurance Costs Spike Up To 88% In 2014

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If you like your disposable income… forget it. Health-care insurance premiums for individuals in California rose between 22% and 88% in 2014 from last year, even after the federal health-care overhaul. This has led, as Bloomberg reports, to Proposition 45 – a bill that would grant regulatory say on proposed premium increases. “Unless Proposition 45 is passed we are going to continue to see dramatic year-over-year increases,” warned Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones.

 

As Bloomberg reports,

Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones said, a Democrat, is pushing a statewide ballot measure for November known as Proposition 45 that would give him regulatory say on proposed premium increases. The measure is opposed by insurance companies, which have said that it would actually cause rates to rise while harming the quality of care.

 

“Unless Proposition 45 is passed or some other law is enacted to provide health-insurance rate regulation and the requirement that health insurers and HMOs justify their rates, we are going to continue to see dramatic year-over-year increases,” Jones said in a telephone briefing with reporters.

 

The California health-care insurance exchange, called Covered California, is expected to announce its 2015 rates later this week. Jones said he expects those increases to be “modest at best” because insurance companies will want to avoid providing voters reason to approve Proposition 45.

 

The insurance commissioner is using this misleading report to promote a ballot measure that would give him vast new powers over health care decisions,” said Robin Swanson, a spokeswoman for the campaign against the initiative, Californians Against Higher Health Care Costs. “Our coalition of doctors, nurses, labor unions and health care providers opposing the measure thinks that giving one politician the power to override decisions made by the state’s successful health exchange is the wrong approach to controlling costs.”

*  *  *
Seems like everything’s going according to plan for Obamacare…





Profile Of A Sanctioned Russian Billionaire: Putin’s Judo Coach

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via The Moscow Times,

Fortune has smiled on judo coach Arkady Rotenberg, bringing his businesses Google-like growth and a key role in staging the Winter Olympics. It has now brought down on him the wrath of the U.S. government.

Rotenberg says his success has nothing to do with personal favors from his childhood sparring partner and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and has denounced this week's Ukraine-linked sanctions on his companies as an affront to the spirit of free enterprise.

Following personal U.S. visa bans and asset freezes imposed on Rotenberg and his younger brother Boris last month, the new measures against pipeline construction firm Stroigazmontazh, or SGM, and banks SMP and InvestCapitalBank have, if nothing else, thrust the media-shy sportsman into the spotlight.

SGM, 51-percent owned by Arkady Rotenberg, saw revenues grow by a factor of nearly 50 after its creation in 2008 from several units sold by Gazprom. In four years, working for the state-run energy giant and others, it had laid 11,600 kilometers of pipeline — enough to reach all the way from his and Putin's native St. Petersburg to the Pacific. And back.

 
 

SMP, in which he and his brother each have a 38-percent stake, has also done well. With assets of 208 billion rubles ($5.8 billion) and about 100 branches it stands only 35th on a ranking by Interfax. But with assets growing 52 percent in the year, it is one of the fastest growing banks in Russia.

In a rare interview in 2012, he told Forbes, which puts his current wealth at $4 billion, that Putin did him no favors in securing public contracts: "Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn't protect me," he said.

But there were other benefits, he added: "If people didn't give me all this publicity, calling me a 'Friend of Putin', then my business would be worse. And so it's growing well".

The U.S. Treasury noted: "Both brothers have amassed enormous amounts of wealth during the years of Putin's rule."

It estimated the Rotenbergs' personal wealth grew by $2.5 billion in just the last two years and that Arkady Rotenberg's firms had secured $7 billion of contracts for the Winter Olympics Russia hosted at Sochi in February, part of what the Treasury called the brothers' "support to Putin's pet projects".

A spokesman for the Rotenbergs and SGM called the sanctions "illegitimate, because they undermine the very spirit of free enterprise and business".

Crony Capitalism

Arkady Rotenberg first sparred
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“Gold Could Go To Infinity” – Ron Paul

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by GoldCore.

“I Still Believe In Gold” – Ron Paul

Dr Ron Paul, the popular Presidential candidate and America and the world’s most popular libertarian voice, told CNBC yesterday that he “still believes in gold” and that “gold could go to infinity.”

Former U.S. Representative Dr Ron Paul told CNBC’s Jackie DeAngelis and the Futures Now Traders that the long-term case for gold remains firmly intact.

Dr Ron Paul:

“Timing is the only thing. I remember watching gold when it was 35 dollars an ounce and we thought if it ever hit a hundred dollars, the world would come to an end. And then a thousand dollars, so; no, it’s good as long as we continues to do this <print money> , you know, it could go to infinity because when people just leave the dollar, who knows what …”

“But that won’t happen if we finally wake up and do something.  But if we can keep this together, if the money managers can keep it together and it doesn’t collapse, yes, gold is gonna keep creeping up, but, you know, as weak as gold looks right now, it’s up a hundred dollars for this year so…”


Jackie DeAngelis:


“It’s roughly I think up 8% year-to-date. It’s not a horrible move for gold but I think a lot of people were expecting to see a little bit more, especially with the instability that we’re seeing in terms of the geopolitical situation. A lot of conflict around the world — you’d expect gold to be higher right now.”


Ron Paul:

“Yeah, but if you understand the subjective theory of value, you don’t get too concerned about that because, yes, increasing the money supply weakens the dollar and a weaker dollar raises the price of gold and it’s a long term measurement. But you can’t measure, you can’t say that the money supply went up a certain amount, and gold is going to go up, so there’s a subjective element in that.”

“But long term…and economic law says, if you keep printing a lot of paper money, the value of that
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Obama Sued: House Authorizes Lawsuit Against President With 225-201 Vote

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Argentina defaults; Russia, Ukraine, Libya, Israel, Gaza, Iraq all in a state of (hot or otherwise) war, the worst Ebola epidemic in the history of Africa, and now Obama is getting sued.

And from Reuters:

The Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday cleared the way for the launch of a lawsuit accusing President Barack Obama of overstepping his authority in carrying out his landmark healthcare reform law.

 

The 225-201 vote, along party lines, to authorize the suit will allow House lawyers to draft legal documents over a five-week summer recess starting on Friday.

 

It cements the action as a lightning rod for months of bitter campaign rhetoric from both Republicans and Democrats ahead of November elections that will determine the political control of Congress next year.

 

The suit is expected to claim that Obama exceeded his executive authority in making unilateral changes to the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare.

And then this:

If this doesn’t send the S&P to new record highs tomorrow, the Fed better find another market to rig.

Incidentally, for those confused, this is nothing but more theater. If the GOP, i.e., the orange folding lawnchair, really wanted to go after Obama, they would have impeached.

Meanwhile, somewhere in the bowels of the Kremlin, Putin is cackling like a madman.





Argentina Defaults

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It’s all over but the crying: having explained Argentina’s position (i.e. not giving to so-called vulture funds), Economy Minister Kicilloff explains:

  • *KICILLOF SAYS HEDGE FUNDS NOT WILLING TO GIVE DELAY ON RULING
  • *KICILLOF SAYS HARD TO BELIEVE ARGENTINA IN DEFAULT IF HAS FUNDS
  • *KICILLOF SAYS ARGENTINA CAN’T COMPLY WITH COURT RULING
  • *HOLDOUTS DIDN’T ACCEPT ARGENTINE OFFER: KICILLOF

As Bloomberg notes, by defaulting today, Argentina may trigger bondholder claims of as much as $29 billion — equal to all its foreign-currency reserves. Just remember that the last 2 days have seen ‘smart money’ buy Argentine bonds and stocks to all-time record highs.

 

Some color on what next (via Bloomberg):

If the overdue interest on Argentina’s dollar-denominated securities due 2033 isn’t paid by July 30, provisions in bond indentures known as cross-default clauses would allow the nation’s other debt holders to also demand their money back immediately. The amount corresponds to Argentina’s debt issued in foreign currencies and governed by international laws.

 

In a default, even a temporary one, Argentina’s economy will contract and the odds of a crisis are high, according to Marcos Buscaglia, an economist at Bank of America Corp. Money demand will become unstable as Argentines scramble for dollars, causing the peso to slump, he wrote in a report today.

“Argentina’s current weak fiscal, monetary and external conditions make the probability of the situation spinning out of control quite high,” he wrote. “Argentina’s payment capacity should not be taken for granted if it defaults.”

  • *ARGENTINA’S RUFO CLAUSE PROHIBITS MAKING BETTER OFFER: KICILLOF
  • NEW YORK-ARGENTINA’S ECONOMY MINISTER KICILLOF REPEATEDLY CALLS HOLDOUT INVESTORS “VULTURE FUNDS
  • KICILLOF SAYS HOLDOUTS WOULD REAP 300% PROFIT IN DEBT SWAP
  • KICILLOF SAYS HEDGE FUNDS WANT MORE AND WANT IT NOW

*  *  *

All those equity and bond gains – which hit an all time high – today, gone.

Oops:





Foreign Secretary Warns Russian Sanctions “Will Hit UK Economy”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

More blowback… UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond suggests imposing sanctions on Russia are a shared sacrifice that European nations must make. While the sanctions were “designed to maximize the impact on Russia and minimize the impact on EU economies,” he warns his fellow Britons that, “It will affect our economy…” As RT notes, London will likely be hit hardest among the EU powers because of its intimate financial relationship with Moscow and we are already seeing UK home prices fall as oligarch flows slow.

As RT reports,

Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said the measures had been “designed to maximize the impact on Russia and minimize the impact on EU economies.”

 

“It will affect our economy… but you can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs, and if we want to impose economic pain on Russia in order to try to encourage it to behave properly in eastern Ukraine and to give access to the crash site, then we have to be prepared to take these measures,” he told Sky.

 

“We have spent a lot of time making sure the package is balanced so the pain is fairly shared across the big EU economies, but we can’t expect to be able to do this without any impact at all on our own economies.”

*  *  *

One wonders just how UK will cope when Putin really gets going…





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

Bad Behavior: From A to Z ... and Back Again

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Talking Shop

A common reaction to pointing out to investors (or indeed, anyone) that they're as biased as a Fox reporter at a convention of transgender liberal pacifists is for them to respond, not unreasonably, by asking what they should do about it (that's the investors, not the reporters). It turns out that it's a lot easier to say what's wrong than to actually do anything about it.

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Zero Hedge

How Argentina Became A Bad Debtor

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following this evening's lengthy finger-pointing lecture from Argentina's Kicillof, Argentina formally defaulted. Shortly thereafter the hoped-for private bank bailout deal also failed leaving the default process likely to take a while. So how has Argentina defaulted three times in the last 28 years?

Submitted by Nicolas Cachanosky via the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

This is a complex case that has produced different, if not opposite, interpretations by analysts and policy makers. Some of these interpretations, however, are not well-founded.

How Argentina Became a Bad Debtor

An understanding ...



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Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

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Richard Duncan summed up this view quite well in a recent Financial Sense Newshour interview, Prepare for a Correction Once QE3 Ends:

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Click here for the full report.




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Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

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Our weekly newsletter Stock World Weekly is ready for your enjoyment.

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Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

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See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

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