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Russell & Trannies Give Up FOMC Gains, Bond Yields Tumbling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

This is not what Yellen promised! The Russell 2000 (inching ever closer to its death cross) has plunged today and is now -0.8% from pre-FOMC and negative year-to-date.  Dow Transports have also given up all their post-FOMC gains and Homebuilders have plunged. US Treasury yields have tumbled with 30Y now -3bps on the week (and below pre-FOMC levels). The USD is rising as GBP weakness re-emerges.

 

Russell is weak and Trannies have rolled over…

 

Homebuilders are in trouble…

 

As Treasury yields tumble on the week…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





Alibaba Breaks For Trading At $92.70, Rises Over $99.50, Hits Same Market Cap As Walmart, Drops

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The moment everyone had been waiting for just arrived and moments ago BABA broke for trading at $92.70 after its $68 IPO, and promptly traded over $99.50, which means its market cap is now the same as Walmart, and it gunning for General Electric.

 

and then this happened…

 

BABA drops below opening print…

 

This is how high BABA got:

 

So… Alibubble, or BubbleCoin?





3 Things Worth Thinking About

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,

FOMC Meeting GDP Forecast

One of Fiedler's Forecasting Rules states:

"Always be precise in your forecasts: Economists state their GDP growth projections to the nearest tenth of a percentage point to prove they have a sense of humor."

The Federal Reserve has certainly proved both points; they have been very precise in their forecasts and have consistently overstated economic strength as shown. For example, in January of 2011, the Fed was predicting GDP growth for 2013 at 4.0%. Actual real GDP (inflation adjusted) was just 2.19% for the year only missing estimates by roughly 50%. The estimates, in 2011, for long run economic growth, was 2.7%, which has now fallen to just 2.2%.

Unfortunately, 2014 is not shaping up very well either.  At the beginning of 2013, the estimates for the full year of 2014 averaged 3.2%. With the first quarter of 2014 declining 2.1%, even the sharp rebound in Q2 has left the economy average only roughly 2% growth so far. Of course, since that time, the Fed has continually lowered its estimates for 2014 from that 3.2% growth rate to just 2.05% today.  That doesn't suggest a massively strong rebound through the last two-quarters of the year.

FOMC-Projections-GDP-091814

Importantly, the Fed added a projection for 2017 which is just 2.3% annualized real economic growth.  As shown in the chart inset, economic growth projections by the Federal Reserve are showing a continued slide in economic prosperity in the years ahead.

This view very much aligns with statements I have repeatedly made over the last three years which is that in a consumption based economy excess debt, structural unemployment and stagnant incomes retard economic prosperity. The simple fact is that when it requires roughly $4 of debt to create $1 of "real" economic growth – the engine of growth is broken.

Debt-Dollars-To-Create-GDP-091814

Economic data continues to show signs of sluggishness, despite intermittent pops of activity, and the global economy remains drag on domestic exports. With higher taxes, increased healthcare costs and regulation, the fiscal drag on the economy could be even larger than expected.  

What is very important is the long run outlook of 2.2% economic growth. That rate of growth is not strong enough to achieve…
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Scotland’s Salmond Resigns After Losing Independence Vote

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Another person joins the CEO exodus from yesterday so he too has more time to BTFATH now that BTFD has been made impossible as the market will never D again.

Per the Guardian, Alex Salmond’s resignation speech concludes:

Scotland can still emerge as a real winner … For me as a leader my time is nearly over but for Scotland the campaign continues and the dream shall never die.

And in other news, France’s Sarkozy to return to politics, so net-net, a wash.





Fed’s Fisher Admits “Fed Has Levitated Markets”, Warns Of “Signs Of Excess”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

FOMC voting-member Richard Fisher is among the sanest voices in the Eccles Building asylum and he is once again sounding alarms that all is not well in US financial markets:

  • *FISHER SAYS FED HAS ‘LEVITATED’ MARKETS
  • *FISHER SAYS HE SEES SIGNS OF EXCESS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

Furthermore, Fisher notes The Fed can’t force companies to hire, and would like to see rate hikes as early as Spring 2015.

 

He is right of course…

 

And adds:

  • *FISHER SAYS HE BACKS REDUCING REINVESTMENT BEFORE RAISING RATES
  • *FISHER SAYS HE WANTS TO AVOID FED HAVING TO TIGHTEN ‘SEVERELY’
  • *FISHER SAYS HE WANTS TO SEE FIRST RATE MOVE IN SPRING 2015
  • *FISHER SAYS HE’S IN THE SLOW AND GRADUAL SCHOOL ON RATE RISES
  • *FISHER SAYS HE FAVORS RAISING RATES IN QTR-POINT INCREMENTS

Then reflects on the world…

  • *FISHER SAYS ECB’S DRAGHI IS ONE OF THE GREAT CENTRAL BANKERS
  • *FISHER SAYS FRENCH ECONOMY IS `UBER-WEAK’ NOW
  • *FISHER SAYS THERE ARE LIMITS TO WHAT ECB’S DRAGHI CAN DO
  • *FISHER: ECB POLICY CONSTRAINED BY FRAGMENTED EURO FISCAL POLICY
  • *FISHER SAYS JAPAN’S ECONOMY NEEDS A LOT OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE




Precious Metals Liquidated To Make Room For Alibaba, Silver At Four-Year Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Precious metals are under pressure once again this morning led by Silver which just hit its lowest since August 2010. It appears investors are liquidating precious metals to make room in their ‘safe haven’ portfolio for precious Ma’s Alibaba IPO… because what could go wrong there… (Russell 2000 is also seeing notable liquidation)

What makes us think this is BABA liquidation (obviously tongue-in-cheek but the timing is odd…)

 

As Silver gets relatively slammed…

 

  • *GOLD FALLS 0.8% TO $1,215.82/OZ IN LONDON, LOWEST SINCE JAN. 2
  • *SILVER FUTURES FALL TO $18.125/OZ, LOWEST SINCE AUG. 2010

It seems Russell and Nasdaq positions are also being liquidated for the “can’t lose” BABA…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As US equity markets explode higher at the open this morning (Dow over 17,300 and S&P testing 2,020) extending the week’s gains to 2%, we thought it intriguing that Treasury yields are now lower on the week… long live the Queen (Janet not Elizabeth), long live Jack Ma, and long live quad-witching.

Someone is wrong…

 

Stocks on the week…

 

And bonds…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





Goldman Warns Tesla Will Need To Raise At Least Another $6 Billion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following a plant tour to TSLA, Goldman is confident that the company will meet its 2014 production objectives. However, what keeps them more guarded is the aggressive timetable of the gigafactory as well as a potential escalation of capital needs given the planned capacity ramp, model and derivative expansion, service expansion as well as other undisclosed projects. Simply put, Goldman warns, at the low end of our three disruptive scenarios for TSLA, they see the need for an additional $6bn in capital – and 18% dilution to the current market cap around $33bn. With 3Q likely to be a noisy quarter and shares seemingly baking in flawless execution at present, Goldman remains sidelined for now with a $210 target.

Via Goldman Sachs,

What’s changed
We hosted a visit to TSLA’s Fremont, CA facility and met with the CFO.

Key takeaways:

(1) Production ramp post launch of new line is proceeding according to plan. Production is back to 800+ units a week (similar to before the shutdown); TSLA expects a rate of over 1,000 by year end.

 

(2) The body shop is the next bottleneck, with max capacity of 1,500 a week; a significantly larger body shop is planned for 1H15.

 

(3) Post the shutdown, wait times have extended: China at >5 months, and anecdotes of over 3 months in the US. Cancelations are not elevated relative to history, however.

 

(4) TSLA believes it could self-fund capex but is keeping funding options open depending on the pace of growth and new products it wants to undertake in the future.

 

(5) Biggest near-term cash calls are the body shop and paint shop upgrades, Model X preproduction and launch costs, to be followed by the gigafactory and Model 3.

 

(6) Gigafactory will ramp in phases, with localization increasing over time; Nevada site selection allows TSLA to meet its timing, not accelerate the process.

Implications

On balance, the plant tour was positive with Tesla on track to meet its 2014 production objectives. What keeps us more guarded is the aggressive timetable of the gigafactory as well as a potential escalation of capital needs given the planned capacity ramp, model and derivative expansion, service expansion as well as other undisclosed projects.
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UK Scrambles Fighter Jets To Intercept Two Russian Strategic “Bear” Bombers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Scotland was busy concluding the count of its votes against independence, Royal Air Force fighter jets based out of the northern Scottish base in Lossiemouth in Moray, were scrambled to identify and intercept two airplanes which subsequently were revealed to be Russian Tu-95 Russian “Bear H” strategic bombers, that were spotted in international airspace although the exact location of the encounter has not been disclosed. As the RAF later clarified in a statement, the aircraft did not enter UK airspace. 

The statement said the launch was the first time a Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) had been issued from RAF Lossiemouth since the Moray base took on the role of defending the UK’s northern airspace.

As Sky reports, RAF Lossiemouth’s Station Commander, Group Captain Mark Chappell, said: “This first successful launch for QRA North has been what all of the hard work by RAF Leuchars and RAF Lossiemouth personnel over recent months has been for.

“The relocation of two Typhoon squadrons was a significant challenge, one that was met by our whole team.

“The many months of preparation and infrastructure improvements have made us absolutely ready for this launch, and shows we are in the best position to provide the service to the United Kingdom that the Royal Air Force was primarily created for – that is, the protection of our airspace.”

And while the RAF apparently was merely responding to what was yet another training exercise by Russia – as a reminder in June two Typhoon jets were scrambled into action to head off four separate groups of Russian aircraft that were flying near the Baltic, which the Ministry of Defence said appeared to be carrying out  a ‘routine training’ exercise in international airspace and were later escorted out of the area – it did take the opportunity to release a photo album of the interception in progress.

A British Typhoon jet, bottom, is seen intercepted one of two Russian ‘Bear’ aircraft that were spotted flying in international airspace

Another angle

And yet another.


The interception, which involved two Typhoon jets pictured, was the first time a Quick Reaction Alert had occurred since the Lossiemouth, Scotland, base had taken on the role of defending the UK’s Northern airspace.





The NYSE Would Like You To Know All Is Well As BABA Looms

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Everything’s fine… keep moving… place your bets ladies and gentlemen…

 

 

We’ll just have to wait and see…





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Option Review

IV Implodes On 4-hour YHOO Options As BABA Commences Trading

Investors are dumping shares in Yahoo, sending the stock down 5.0% to $40.08 after shares in Alibaba made their debut on the floor of the NYSE just before midday. Shares in BABA for their part initially traded up to a high of $99.70, a near 47% increase over the IPO price of $68.00. Typically, one would expect put options that are 5% out of the money with roughly 4-hours left to trade to see waning implied volatility. But, at the start of the trading session and ahead of the first trade for BABA, the Sep 19 ’14 40.0 strike put options were trading with 271% volatility or $0.30 per contract amid uncertainty as to how the start of trading for Alibaba would take shape.

...

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Zero Hedge

Russell & Trannies Give Up FOMC Gains, Bond Yields Tumbling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

This is not what Yellen promised! The Russell 2000 (inching ever closer to its death cross) has plunged today and is now -0.8% from pre-FOMC and negative year-to-date.  Dow Transports have also given up all their post-FOMC gains and Homebuilders have plunged. US Treasury yields have tumbled with 30Y now -3bps on the week (and below pre-FOMC levels). The USD is rising as GBP weakness re-emerges.

 

Russell is weak and Trannies have rolled over...

 

Homebuilders are in trouble...

...



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Chart School

Market Cap to GDP: The Buffett Valuation Indicator

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: I've updated this analysis to include yesterday's Federal Reserve release of the 2014 Z.1 Financial Accounts for Q2.

Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."

The four valuation indicators I track in my monthly valuation overview offer a long-term perspective of well over a century. The raw data for the "Buffett indicator" only goes back as far as the middle of the 20th century. Quarterly GDP da...



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Phil's Favorites

"Surprising" MH17 Crash Update

Courtesy of Mish.

The title of this article, "Surprising" MH17 Crash Update, is accurate only in the sense the average sheep believes the average mainstream media report.

Since that is the majority, the title is accurate. Mish readers, however, may find this report not surprising.

Reader Marina from Toronto explains via email ....
Hello Mish,

My name is Marina. I am a long-time fan of your blog and a friend of Nicole Foss at Automatic Earth.

I am also a volunteer translator for The Vineyard Saker website. Our team has just translated a very important report on the MH17 crash released by the Russian Union of Engineers.
...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Comments On BlackBerry Ltd Prior To Q2 Earnings

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BBRY RigNet (RNET) Falls: Stock Goes Down 5.4% UPDATE: BlackBerry's BBM to Integrate with Hootsuite Sprint Faces Many Hurdles in Mobile Provider Race (Fox Business)

In a note published earlier Friday morning, Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette provided some insight into what he expects out of BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ: BBRY...



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Market Shadows

Selling PVD

Selling PVD

Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. (PVD) shares will not be trading on the NY Stock Exchange after today. Tomorrow, shares will be harder to sell. Strangely, I wasn't able to find information on the internet, but Paul just sent me a copy of the email he received from Interactive Brokers.

We're selling PVD out of the Virtual Portfolio today at $87.18. 

More details:

From: Interactive Brokers   dated July 18, 2014

Holders of AFP Provida S.A. American Depository Receipts (ADR) are advised that the Company has elected to terminate the Deposit Agreement effective 2014-09-18.

As of the te...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

Last Chance! See The 'Google-Like' Trading Algorithm 'Live' TODAY

Traders and Investors,

RSVP NOW to attend a special presentation TODAY at Noon or 9:00 pm ET, where you’ll see a powerful trading algorithm that’s been tested and proven to return phenomenal results on a consistent basis. 

In fact, it has an 82% win rate…

And had you only traded the conservative alerts recommended by the algorithm since inception, you would have experienced portfolio gains of more than 200%!

Register NOW and secure your virtual seat for one of Today’s LIVE presentations.

When you register for the webinar, you’ll also get instant access to following trading videos:

  • Instant access to FOUR Quick-Start Expectancy...


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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls go down swinging, refusing to give up much ground

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Although the stock market displayed weakness last week as I suggested it would, bulls aren’t going down easily. In fact, they’re going down swinging, absorbing most of the blows delivered by hesitant bears. Despite holding up admirably when weakness was both expected and warranted, and although I still see higher highs ahead, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback. A number of signs point to more weakness ahead.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-r...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Enjoy!

[Sign in with your PSW user name and password, or take a free trial here.]

Image courtesy of Business Insider, Jay Yarow's This Is The Best Description Of How Apple's Business Works Right Now.

 

...

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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

Making Sense of Bitcoin

By James Black at International Man

Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.

Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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