Author Archive for Zero Hedge

China State Official Hints Beijing May Bailout Greece

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On Monday, after Greek PM Alexis Tsipras’ dramatic referendum call sparked a run on Greek ATMs, grocery stores, and gas stations, we did our part to help ameliorate the situation by sending a subtle message to Athens:

Indeed, now may be an opportune time to tap Beijing for a few billion given that China officially launched the AIIB this week. As a reminder, the success of China’s AIIB membership drive was a political disaster for The White House, which expended considerable effort to discourage US allies from supporting the new China-led venture.

As such, it would be difficult to imagine a more fitting pilot program for the world’s newest supranational lender than a rescue package for the birthplace of Western democracy which has been brought to its knees by that most Western of all multilateral institutions, the IMF. 

And while any funding to Greece from China would likely be channeled through the Silk Road fund (at least for now, given that the AIIB is just a few days old, officially), any aid from Xi Jingping’s deep pockets to Athens would represent a spectacular coup on both an economic and political level.

While the world is by now likely incredulous about the prospects for a Greek “Eastern” pivot (around a half dozen Russian headfakes have made us somewhat numb to the idea), Chinese assistance might be more likely than Europe cares to admit. Sputnik News has more:

China may help Greece directly through its new financial instruments, director of the Quantitative Finance Department at China’s Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics told Sputnik China.

Goldman Sachs predicted in a report published on Wednesday that in a worst-case scenaria China’s exports would decline 2.2 percent as a result of Greece’s economic crisis. Other than exports to Greece itself, the crisis could also hurt the economies of nearby countries, where Chinese businessmen have also made considerable investments.

“The Greek crisis has an undoubtedly seriously influence on China’s trade with Greece and investment into the country. But I think that European countries together with China can


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Stocks Slump Into The Red After IMF Comments

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While “Greece doesn’t matter,” the comments by The IMF that Greece needs its debt restructured and thus the creditors’ proposals should be implicitly said “Oxi” to, has spooked US equity markets on this quiet illiquid day…

Perhaps Greece matters after all





IMF Bolsters Greek “No” Vote, Says Country Needs Much Bigger Debt Haircut

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the IMF were a Greek citizen, it would vote “No” in this weekend’s referendum.

According to a report prepared prior to capital controls and the banking sector meltdown, any deal that included creditor concessions on fiscal reforms would mean Greece’s debt load would have to be written down, as the country would need at least €60 billion in new financing

This should not come as a surprise to our readers because long before Greece returned to the spotlight we reported last October, citing an S&P report, that by the end of 2015 Greek financing would be at least €43 billion.  What we said then: “As for Greece, it appears that suddenly the idyllic image of its recovery is about to be torn to shreds and the Syntagma riotcam will have to come out of hibernation.”

We were right about the former, still waiting for the riotcam. We were also right about this:

In other words, Greece will default the second the people start protesting the crushing, and very simple math, and they decide they have had enough of the technocrat and appoint another president. Because, you see, it is not that Greece implemented zero reform, and rooted out the pervasive cooruption that saw billions in foreign “aid” end up in offshore bank accounts of the political oligarchy, or the simple math of sources and uses of funds: it is the danger of the Greek people returning to what they did best in those days of 2010 and 2011 when every other day saw a riot in the center of Athens, that will be the straw that finally breaks the camel’s back.

And thus we go back to square one, as we always said we would, when only timing was a matter of debate. Well, we now know the timing: T minus 15 months and counting to yet another Eurozone collapse.

Actually the collapse may have come earlier than that: some 6 months so, depending on what the vote in Sunday’s referendum is.

But back to the IMF’s report which underscores the Fund’s long-standing position that EU creditors will ultimately need to write down their holdings if Greece has any hope of returning to a situation where the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is “sustainable,” and suggests Syriza is indeed making…
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Here is How The Next Crisis Will Play Out

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research.

As I noted yesterday, the Fuse on the Global Debt Bomb has been lit. We are now officially in the Crisis to which the 2008 Meltdown was just the warm up.

The process will take time to unfold. The Tech Bubble, arguably the single biggest stock market bubble of all time, was both obvious to investors AND isolated to a single asset class: stocks. In spite of this, it took two years for stocks to finally bottom.

In contrast, the current Crisis that we are facing involves bonds… the bedrock of the financial system.

Every asset class in the world trades based on the pricing of bonds. So the fact that bonds are in a bubble (arguably the biggest bubble in financial history), means that EVERY asset class is in a bubble.

And what a bubble it is.

All told, globally there are $100 trillion in bonds in existence today.

A little over a third of this is in the US. About half comes from developed nations outside of the US. And finally, emerging markets make up the remaining 14%.

Over $100 trillion…the size of the bond bubble alone should be enough to give pause.

However, when you consider that these bonds are pledged as collateral for other securities (usually over-the-counter derivatives) the full impact of the bond bubble explodes higher to $555 TRILLION.

To put this into perspective, the Credit Default Swap  (CDS) market that nearly took down the financial system in 2008 was only a tenth of this ($50-$60 trillion).

What does all of this mean?

The $100 trillion bond bubble will implode. As it does, the financial system will begin to deleverage as debt is defaulted on or restructured (reducing the amount of US Dollars in the system, pushing the US Dollar higher).

By the time it’s all over, I expect:

1)   Numerous emerging market countries to default and most emerging market stocks to lose 50% of their value.

2)   The Euro to break below parity before the Eurozone is broken up (eventually some new version of the Euro to be introduced and remain below parity with the US Dollar).

3)   Japan to have defaulted and very likely enter hyperinflation.

4)   US stocks to lose at least 50% of their value and possibly fall as far…
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German Deja Vu: Merkel Summons US Ambassador Over New Spying Claims

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It would appear the most transparent administration ever is in trouble with an 'ally' once again. Following its wrist-slap from France last week, and its previous quasi-admission of spying on Merkel and her senior officials (which we are sure President Obama said would never happen again – better to ask for forgiveness than permission?), The Guardian reports Angela Merkel’s chief of staff has asked the US ambassador for a meeting to discuss the latest reports of alleged US spying on Germany.

Reports two years ago that the chancellor’s mobile phone was monitored by the NSA caused diplomatic friction between Berlin and Washington, prompting Barack Obama to pledge that he would not allow America’s massive communications surveillance capability to damage relations with close allies.

It appears, he lied… (as The Guardian reports)

Angela Merkel’s chief of staff has asked the US ambassador for a meeting to discuss the latest reports of alleged US spying on Germany.

A German official said Peter Altmaier had invited John Emerson to the chancellery on Thursday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity.

On Wednesday WikiLeaks published a list of German phone numbers that it claimed showed that the US National Security Agency eavesdropped on senior German officials beyond Merkel.

*  *  *





THe ReTuRN oF DR NO….

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.





Russia Gets Involved: Tells Europe To Respect The Greek Choice

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Russia has been quiet on the sidelines of the Greco-European austerity-for-cash wrestling death match, offering assistance if it is needed and making new friends, it appears Putin is now getting more vocally involved:

  • *RUSSIA URGES EU TO RESPECT GREECE’S CHOICE IN REFERENDUM: RIA
  • *RUSSIAN ENVOY SEES NO THREAT OF GREEK EXIT FROM EURO AREA: RIA

A well-timed show of support for Greece from its potential alternate big brother may just be the ammo that Tspiras needs to reassure the people that they should vote without fear. With 3 days to go, we suspect fearmongering will rise.





Since 2007 The US Has Lost 1.4 Million Manufacturers, Gained 1.4 Million Waiters And Bartenders

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented without comment.

* December 2007 is when, according to the NBER, the recession started. The same recession which also according to the NBER ended precisely 6 years ago.





Fed Whisperer Hilsenrath Hints: Despite Jobs Miss, Yellen Will Hike In 2015

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There are two narratives, according to WSJ's Fed whisperer Jon Hilsenrath, that need to be considered when judging the Fed's next steps. First is, the economy stumbled in Q1 but everything will be awesome going forward (so we should hike rates); and a second newer narrative is the turmoil overseas which could be exaggerated by Fed actions. Hilsenrath hints today that despite the miss in jobs data, it remains above 200,000 and "suggests the U.S. economy finished the first half of the year with a solid foundation to weather turbulence from overseas," giving The Fed room to hike.

As The Wall Street Jorunal reports,

The Federal Reserve is working off of two narratives right now. Thursday’s U.S. jobs report will inform one but not the other.

The first narrative, its baseline, is built around the first half of the year. It goes like this: The economy stumbled in the first quarter, thanks to one-time shocks including bad weather, port shutdowns on the West Coast, statistical mis-measurement, a sharp drop in the price of oil and increases in the value of the dollar. As officials see it, the economy regained its footing in the second quarter, setting the stage for more robust growth in the second half of the year, continued improvement in the labor market, firming of U.S. consumer prices and at least one increase in the central bank’s short-term interest rate.

The second narrative is the spillover narrative from overseas. It is new and Fed officials are still forming their opinions about how it will play out. Greece’s default on loans from the International Monetary Fund and its referendum on accepting tough new terms from creditors create unknowns for Europe and financial markets which could disrupt the Fed’s resumption-of-growth story. A weakened euro could pinch U.S. exports and put further downward pressure on imported U.S. inflation, giving the Fed pause. Global financial strains could undermine confidence among banks and businesses, further depleting investment and growth. Stock volatility and an economic slowdown in China compound the Fed’s global worries. The worries, however, may pass. Greece’s debt default drama might well be resolved with creditors in a manner of days.

The jobs report released by the Labor Department Thursday is widely expected to confirm the resumption-of-growth narrative for the second quarter. Analysts expect the government


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Factory Orders Scream Recession: Annual Drop Biggest Since 2008

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

This has never happened outside of recession… Year-over-year, factory orders dropped 6.3% (adjusted) but 8% non-adjusted, the most since the financial crisis. Against expectations of a 0.5% drop MoM, manufacturers saw new orders tumble 1.0% and previous months were revised dramatically lower. Factory orders has now missed 10 of the last 11 months.

Factory Orders have fallen for 9 of the last 10 months…

Seasonally adjusted things look terrible…

Non-seasonally adjusted they look even worse..

Recession is coming…

Charts: Bloomberg





 
 
 

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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Zero Hedge

China State Official Hints Beijing May Bailout Greece

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On Monday, after Greek PM Alexis Tsipras’ dramatic referendum call sparked a run on Greek ATMs, grocery stores, and gas stations, we did our part to help ameliorate the situation by sending a subtle message to Athens:

Dear Greece, if you want to apply for a loan from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, send an email to: information@aiibank.org

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 28, 2015

Indeed, now may be an opportune time to tap Beijing for a few billion given that China ...



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Phil's Favorites

The Coming Era Of Pension Poverty

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith Of Two Minds

Assuming "growth" will fund all promised pensions and entitlements is magical thinking.

The core problem with pension plans is that the promises were issued without regard for the revenues needed to pay the promises. Lulled by 60 years of global growth since 1945, those in charge of entitlements and publicly funded pensions assumed that "growth"--of GDP, tax revenues, employment and everything else--would always rise faster than the costs of the promised pensions and entitlements.

But due to demographics and a structurally stagnant economy, entitlements and pension costs are rising at a much faster rate than the revenues needed to pay the promised benefits. Two charts (courtesy of Market Daily Briefing) tell the ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

A Year of Lower Oil Prices: Crossing A Boundary? (Art Berman)

The oil price collapse of 2014-2015 began one year ago this month (Figure 1).  The world crossed a boundary in which prices are not only lower now but will probably remain lower for some time. It represents a phase change like when water turns into ice: the composition is the same as before but the physical state and governing laws are different.

Market Wrap: Greek "Capitulation" Optimism Sends Global Risk Higher After China Re-crashes (Zero Hedge)

Before we focus on the Greek drama whic...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Shanghai index creates historic reversal pattern like 2007

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Much of the attention around the world seems to be revolving around a small country called Greece. What about the most populated country in the world (China), any key messages coming from there of late?

Well another Month, Quarter and Half a year are in the books. With this in mind I wanted to look at Monthly action of the hottest stock market in the world, the Shanghai Index. Above looks at the Shanghai index over the past 25-years. The 100%+ rally over the past year has pushed the Shanghai index up to its 23% Fibonacci ratio and a long-term resistance line, that has been in play for 25-years at (1) above.

As the Shanghai index was hitting this...



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Chart School

No Update

Courtesy of Declan.

Stockcharts.com running very slow, so no update today. ...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 29th., 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

BitGold Now Available in US! Why BitGold?

Courtesy of Mish.

BitGold USA

Effective today, BitGold Announces Platform Launch in the United States.

BitGold, a platform for savings and payments in gold, is pleased to announce the launch of the BitGold platform for residents of the US and US territories. As of today, US residents can sign up on the BitGold platform and buy, sell, or redeem gold using BitGold’s Aurum payment and settlement technology. US residents will also have access to the BitGold mobile app and a prepaid card when these features launch over the coming weeks. Send and receive gold payment features are not initially available in the US.

About BitGold

...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls under the gun to muster troops, while bears lie in wait

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Two weeks ago, bulls seemed ready to push stocks higher as long-standing support reliably kicked in. But with just one full week to go before the Independence Day holiday week arrives, we will see if bulls can muster some reinforcements and make another run at the May highs. Small caps and NASDAQ are already there, but it is questionable whether those segments can drag along the broader market. To be sure, there is plenty of potential fuel floating around in the form of a friendly Fed and abundant global liquidity seeking the safety and strength of US stocks and bonds. While the technical picture has glimmers of strength, summer bears lie in wait.

In this weekly ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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