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Guest Post: The Slow Death Of The Old Global Order

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Robert Merry via The National Interest,

In the spring of 2012, The National Interest produced a special issue under the rubric of “The Crisis of the Old Order: The Crumbling Status Quo at Home and Abroad.” The thesis was that the old era of relative global stability, forged through the crucibles of the Great Depression and World War II, was coming unglued. In introducing the broad topic to readers, TNI editors wrote, “Only through a historical perspective can we fully understand the profound developments of our time and glean, perhaps only dimly, where they are taking us. One thing is clear: they are taking us into a new era. The only question is how much disruption, chaos and bloodshed will attend the transition from the Old Order to whatever emerges to replace it.”

Since publication of that special issue of the magazine, events have seemed to bolster the thesis that the current global situation and the American domestic political situation are inherently unstable, and stability will return only with the emergence of some kind of new order. Leaving aside the U.S. domestic scene for purposes of this digression, the gathering global crisis got a penetrating survey the other day from William Pfaff, the longtime geopolitical analyst for the International Herald Tribune (recently renamed the International New York Times).

Pfaff said the world faces an “international disorder unmatched since the interwar 1930s,” fostered by the ongoing Ukraine crisis, the “self-destructive forces” of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, growing instability within the world of Islam, and the “serious risk of collapse” of the European Union. Pfaff notes with a small measure of relief that the world isn’t beset these days by ideological dictatorships on the march or any new waves of totalitarianism. Today’s problems, he says, are merely “confusion, incompetence, and intellectual and moral disorder.” He adds: “But these are bad enough, in an over-armed world.”

What’s most troubling about all this is that today’s national leaders seem utterly lacking in any serious consciousness of just how dangerous the global situation is. The current Ukraine crisis , for example, is the product of a long-term Western tendency (the word “strategy" hardly qualifies here, given the lack of any coherent logic involved) to push eastward through what once were the buffer territories of Eastern…
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Baffle With Fake BS: Chinese Q1 GDP Beats And Misses At The Same Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In keeping with the tradition of Chinese data being fully Schrodingerized, not to mention completely goalseeked and fake, moments ago China reported that its GDP for the quarter which ended 15 days ago has not only been compiled and analyzed, but somehow once again it both beat and missed at the same time. It beat on a Year over Year basis rising 7.4%, if far below the 7.7% expected  just fractionally above the 7.3% expected, while at the same time it missed on a sequential basis with Q1 GDP growing 1.4% Q/Q, just below the 1.5% expected, suggesting the annualized Q/Q has slowed to a meager 5.7% – a number far below China’s 7.0% minimum threshold target.

Some other Schrodingerian, and just as fake, data:

  • Retail Sales beat at 12.2%, above the expected 12.1%, but sharply below the 13.6% in Q4
  • Industrial Output missd at 8.8%, below the expected 9.0%, and also well below the 9.7% previously
  • Fixed Asset Investment also slide from 19.6% at Q4 to just 17.6%, also missing the 18% estimate, as the capex boom from building ghost cities is slowly grinding to a halt, and finally
  • Real Estate development dipped from 19.8% to only 16.8%

In short: a substantial deterioration of the economy, one which was to be expected yet one which can be spun as either bullish thanks to the GDP “beat”, and negatively if the purpose is to make a case for more PBOC stimulus.

And now we look forward to seeing if the difference between the consolidated GDP and that provided by China’s provinces is and summed up is more than the CNY1 trillion we have been used to as of late, since apparently nobody in China is familiar with simple addition.





HFT Firm CEO Seeks Taxpayer Dollars To Save His Hockey Team

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Florida Panthers finished this season with the 2nd lowest points total in the NHL and drew the 2nd lowest average attendance of 14,200 fans per home game. The team is losing $25 million annually. All of this is the exact opposite situation of the team’s owner – Vincent Viola of HFT firm Virtu Financial infamy. As Bloomberg reports, Viola, whose high-frequency trading firm plans to raise millions in an initial public offering next month, is seeking tax dollars to help cover the bills for the hockey team he bought six months ago. Viola asked lawmakers in South Florida’s Broward County to use $64 million in taxpayer funds for arena bond payments owed by the team. In addition to taking over bond payments, which would be made over the next 14 years, the team wants concessions that would cost county taxpayers another $14 million in the same period.

 

As Bloomberg reports, officials in Broward, which encompasses Fort Lauderdale on the Atlantic Coast, disagree on how to proceed, with some saying that if they don’t pick up the tab, the team may move and leave taxpayers with $225 million in debt and an empty arena.

“If we lose the Panthers and the arena operators, we would devalue our asset,” said Broward Mayor Barbara Sharief, referring to the $220 million BB&T Center arena near Fort Lauderdale. “The building could stay vacant for six months out of the year. That’s a significant loss.

 

The value of the 20,000-seat arena would drop 70 percent if the Panthers fold or relocate, Sharief said. The arena would probably lose its concert promoter, Live Nation Entertainment Inc., and forfeit a $2 million annual state subsidy.

iola has been owner since September…

The team, in its current location since the 1998-99 season, was sold to Viola and Douglas Cifu, Virtu’s CEO, in September for $250 million, according to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Team CEO Rory Babich declined to comment.

 

The team is losing $25 million annually, according to a county review.

But everyone involves expects the taxpayer handout…

With more tax money, the Panthers could recruit better players, said Babich, the team CEO. The county could share


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Tuesday Humor: Biggest Fed Dove Concerned About “Real Erosion Of People’s Purchasing Power”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In all honesty, we were a little confused whether to call this Tuesday Humor or Tuesday Schizophrenia, because moments ago the biggest dove at the Fed, Minneapolis Fed’s one-time converted uberhawk Kocherlakota (who recall fired his two biggest hawkish opponents at his regional Fed) just came up with the most idiotic, and hence hilarious, thing a president of the one institution whose only job is to devalue the fiat currency of the host nation can say:

  • KOCHERLAKOTA SEES ‘REAL EROSION’ OF PEOPLE’S PURCHASING POWER

Yep – the biggest dove in the Fed – the only person who disagreed with the Fed’s decision to continue tapering – is suddenly worried about the erosion in your purchasing power dear people. What nobility. What humanism.

But wait, there’s more.

Because within moments of uttering this epic phrase, Kocherlakota said this:

So according to the head of the Minneapolis Fed, the S&P, which rose at 30% last year, is in a bubble and due to pop? Thanks for the warning, chief, even though it is ironic considering it comes on the heels of this:

Greater than the impact on savings accounts… and precisely equal to the impact on their E-trade accounts.

And we close with this rhetorical question posed by the Fed economist:

Why shut itself down of course.





Equity Rallies Are Corrective, Downside Risks Remain, BofAML Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As the second algo-crazy spike in stocks in 2 days draws to a close, it is perhaps worth considering BofAML’s Macneil Curry’s perspective on the S&P 500 – despite the potential for further near-term strength, equity gains are corrective and downside risk remain… or put a different way “sell the f##king rips.” Just as growthless-ly, Curry advises 5s30s flatteners in Treasuries as the slowing trend is set to continue.

 

US5s30s resumes its flattening trend.

US5s30s is resuming its flattening trend. The test and reversal from old channel support, now resistance at 196bps and coincident momentum unwind from oversold extremes says the flattening trend is resuming and that it has room to run.

REMEMBER, WE ARE IN A CYCLICAL (multi-year) flattening trend. Steepening is temporary and corrective. Our initial downside targets are seen to retracement support at 146bps, but eventually we look for a move to long term channel support at 57bps and eventually below.

Initiate UST 5s30s Flatteners at mkt (185.3bps) risk 197bps, target 143bps

ESM4 gains remain corrective.


Turning to equities, despite the potential for further near term strength, against a break above 1867.50/1872.53 (ESM4 and CASH) downside risks remain for the confluence of CASH SUPPORT between 1794/1763 (10m trendline and 200d avg).

 

Source: BofAML





Bomb Squad Arrives At Boston Marathon Finish Line To Investigate Unattended Bags

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On the one year anniversary of the Boston Marathon Bombing (which oddly enough the NSA did not prevent, even before its expansive anti-terrorist exploits were revealed by Edward Snowden) it was practically unavoidable that there would be some echos of that tragic day. Sure enough as CBS reports, “the area near the finish line of the Boston Marathon was evacuated Tuesday night after two unattended backpacks were left at the finish line. Police tape has been put up around the photo bridge on Boylston Street. WBZ-TV photographers on scene say they saw a person with the backpack screaming “Boston Strong” before police cleared everyone from the area.”

Witnesses say the person was barefoot, wearing a long black veil and was acting strange. It is unclear whether or not the person was taken into custody.

 

Copley Station on the Green Line is closed while police investigate the bags.

 

One year ago, three people died, and more than 260 people were injured when two bombs exploded near the finish line of the marathon. Earlier in the day, Vice President Joe Biden joined survivors, and victim’s families for a moment of silence at 2:49 p.m., the same time the bombs exploded a year ago.

Below is a video of the suspicious person:

Moments later the bomb squad arrived.

We suppose the “all clear” will be given promptly, but should the situation escalate, we will update.





Putin Tells Merkel “Ukraine On The Verge Of A Civil War” As Germany Agrees To Re-Sell Russian Gas To Ukraine

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A day after Putin called Obama to warn him that only the US president can prevent bloodshed in Ukraine – something which Obama failed at based on this morning’s reports out of east Ukraine – German Chancellor Angela Merkel had a follow up phone call with the Kremlin a few hours ago, in which Putin told her that “The sharp escalation of the conflict puts the country, in essence, on the verge of a civil war”.

From Itar-Tass:

President Vladimir Putin has had a telephone conversation with Chancellor Angela Merkel of the Federal Republic of Germany and discussed with her the situation in Ukraine, the Kremlin press service reports.

 

Russia’s Head of State pointed out , “The sharp escalation of the conflict puts the country, in essence, on the verge of a civil war“.

 

The leaders of the two countries accentuated the importance of talks in a quadripartite format (Russia, the European Union, the United States, and Ukraine), planned for April 17. “Hope has been expressed that the sides at the meeting in Geneva will manage to convey a clear message contributing to directing the situation into a peaceful channel,” a Kremlin press service official added.

 

The RF President also recalled the importance of stabilizing the economy of Ukraine and of ensuring deliveries and transit of Russian natural gas to Europe. This had been reiterated in his message, dated April 10, 2014, to the leaders of a number of European countries.

 

The telephone conversation was held on the initiative of the German side.

Considering the events from this morning which nearly resulted in the S&P plunging below 1800 only to be “redeemed” by the “bad news” that the Japanese economy is about to stumble yet again, leading algos to believe that more BOJ QE is imminent and sending the S&P surging by over 30 points in the span of a few hours, this is hardly surprising.

What is more surprising, is that as we reported earlier, the very same Germany, through its RWE AG utility, announced it would supply Ukraine with nat gas in 2014 since Gazprom is adamant on no longer providing the troubled country with the precious commodity in the absence of payment (which Ukraine can’t afford). WSJ
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Fourth Anniversary of Gulf Oil Spill: Wildlife Is Still Suffering from Toxic Cover Up

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

As we noted at the time, and on the first (and here), second and third anniversaries of BP’s Gulf oil spill, BP and the government made the spill much worse by dumping toxic dispersant in the water in an attempt to to sink – and so temporarily hide – the oil.

In addition, adding dispersant makes oil 52 times more toxic than it would normally be.

EPA whistleblowers tried to warn us

Gulf toxicologist Susan Shaw told us last year:

Covering up the [Gulf] oil spill with Corexit was a deadly action … what happened in the Gulf was a political act, an act of cowardice and greed.

(60 Minutes did a fantastic exposé on the whole shenanigan.)

And the cover up went beyond adding toxic dispersant.  BP and the government went so far as low-balling the amount of oil spilled, hiding dead animals and keeping scientists and reporters away from the spill so they couldn’t document what was really happening.

As the National Wildlife Federation (NWF) notes in a new report, the wildlife is still suffering from this toxic cover up.

NWF reports:

Some 900 bottlenose dolphins of all ages—the vast majority of them dead—have been reported stranded in the northern Gulf between April 2010 and March 2014. In 2013, bottlenose dolphins were found dead or stranded at more than three times average rates before the spill. In 2011, dead infant or stillborn dolphins were found at nearly seven times the historical average and these strandings have remained higher than normal in subsequent years. NOAA has been investigating this ongoing wave of bottlenose dolphin strandings across the northern Gulf of Mexico since February 2010, before the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded. This is the longest period of above-average strandings in the past two decades and it includes the greatest number of stranded dolphins ever found in the Gulf of Mexico. In December 2013, NOAA published results of a study


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This Is How Free Americans Really Are

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

Americans: This Is How Free You Really Are

Among all the great stories and conversations passed down from the ages, probably my favorite is one from the ancient historian Lucius Cassius Dio about Roman emperor Caracalla.

Caracalla ruled in the second century AD, and he was notorious for bankrupting the Roman treasury and waging costly, unnecessary wars.

Dio tells us that Caracalla made “one excuse after another and one war after another; but he made it his business to strip, despoil, and grind down all the rest of mankind.”

Under Caracalla, Rome was broke. And Dio recounts a story between the emperor and his mother Julia:

Julia to the emperor: “There is no longer any source of revenue, either just or unjust, left to us.”

The emperor replied, pointing to his sword, “Be of good cheer, mother: for as long as we have this [the sword], we shall not run short of money.”

Caracalla’s words summed up Roman tax policy at the time. It is perhaps not too far from modern tax policy either.

Today is tax day in the Land of the Free– the deadline for roughly 150 million individual tax returns to be filed.

Of course, those who refuse will be hauled off to prison at the point of a gun (we’ve advanced beyond swords). And everybody knows it.

The IRS is legendary in this respect. Those three simple letters inspire fear, dread, and panic across the world.

The IRS “brand” is probably almost as famous as Coca Cola… but for all the wrong reasons.

It seems completely incongruent for a nation that is supposed to stand for the ideals of freedom and justice to be world famous for its medieval prosecution of tax policy.

And there’s one clear example that I want to tell you about today.

If you are a US taxpayer with foreign financial accounts (such as a bank, brokerage, or potentially even a gold storage account overseas), there’s a fairly new disclosure form that you must file to the IRS today along with your 1040.

It’s called form 8938. And if you’ve never heard about it, I definitely recommed you speak to your tax advisor pronto.

Like all of these other tax forms, they threaten you with all sorts of…
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Venezuela’s Socialist Leader Maduro Doing His Best Obama Impersonation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Because apparently all great socialist thinkers went to the same school:

  • VENEZUELA SHOULD OBTAIN MORE TAXES FROM WEALTHY, MADURO SAYS
  • MADURO SAYS HE PROPOSES FISCAL ‘REVOLUTION’

And, as Bloomberg reports, “I will call on the people to launch an economic offensive superior to the one in November and December”… “Economic actions to focus on production, supply and fair prices


Because it appears that “fairly” sharing teleprompters is also part of the great socialist mandate.





 
 
 

Chart School

Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: I've updated the accompanying charts with yesterday's Consumer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The annualized rate of change is calculated to two decimal places for more precision in the side-by-side comparison with the PCE Price Index.

The BLS's Consumer Price Index for March shows core inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target range at 1.66%. The Core PCE price index at the end of the February (the most recent data), is significantly lower at 1.10%. The Fed is on record as preferring Core PCE as its inflation gauge.


The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary poli...



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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: BlackBerry Will Sell the Majority of Its Real Estate Holdings in Canada

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BBRY Market Wrap For April 15: Who Doesn't Love A Turnaround? Sirius XM Up on Channel Launch - Analyst Blog The Secret to Social Media Marketing (Fox Business)

BlackBerry(R) Limited (NASDAQ: BBRY), a world leader in mobile communications, today announced that it has entered into an agreement pursuant to which it will sell the majority of its real e...



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Zero Hedge

Guest Post: The Slow Death Of The Old Global Order

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Robert Merry via The National Interest,

In the spring of 2012, The National Interest produced a special issue under the rubric of “The Crisis of the Old Order: The Crumbling Status Quo at Home and Abroad.” The thesis was that the old era of relative global stability, forged through the crucibles of the Great Depression and World War II, was coming unglued. In introducing the broad topic to readers, TNI editors wrote, “Only through a historical perspective can we fully understand the profound developments of our time and glean,...



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Phil's Favorites

French Email Ban Update: "Duty to Disconnect"

Courtesy of Mish.

In response to France Prohibits Sending Work Emails, Answering Cell Phones, Outside Working Hours one reader strenuously objected.

After exchanging numerous emails, his main objection was the accuracy of the title itself "France Prohibits Sending Work Emails, Answering Cell Phones, Outside Working Hours."

Here is the exact headline of the La Vanguardia article that I translated "France prohibits sending mails from work outside working hours".

The reader's big objection? Claiming "France" did this.

Similarly, the Guardian received a lot of flak for its report When ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

What the Market Wants: Positive News and Stocks at Bargain Prices

Courtesy of David Brown, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week’s market performance was nasty again, especially for the Small-cap Growth style/cap, down 4%.  Large-caps faired the best, losing only 2.7%.  That’s ugly and today’s market seemed likely to be uglier today with escalating tensions over the weekend in Ukraine. 

But once again, positive economic trumped the beating of the war drums. Retail Sales jumped up 1.1% over a projected 0.8% and last month’s tepid 0.3%, which was revised up to 0.7%.  While autos led, sales were up solidly overall.  Business inventories were about as expected with a positive tone.  Citigroup (C) handily beat estimates to add to the morning’s surprises.  As a result, the market was positive through most of the day, led by the DJI, up 0.91%, and the S&P 500, up 0.82%.  NASDAQ had a less...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook Takes Life Seriously and Moves To Create Its Own Virtual Currency, Increases UltraCoin Valuation Significantly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Reggie Middleton.

The Financial Times reports:

[Facebook] The social network is only weeks away from obtaining regulatory approval in Ireland for a service that would allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others, according to several people involved in the process. 

The authorisation from Ireland’s central bank to become an “e-money” institution would allow ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 14th 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...



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Market Shadows

Winning: Defined as Losing Less

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Market Shadows Excelled – With a 1.36% Weekly Decline

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is King. Our Virtual Value Porfolio took on that role this week as we lost a modest 1.36% of our value while the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped from 2.35% - 3.10%.

We remain bullish despite the shaky end of week sentiment. Our original $100,000 now totals $145,058 including our 2.8% cash reserve.

 ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is the new Stock World Weekly. Please sign in with your user name and password, or sign up for a free trial to Stock World Weekly. Click here. 

Chart by Paul Price.

...

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Option Review

Bearish Prints In DDD Put Options

3D Systems shares had been in positive territory earlier in the session, up as much as 4.2% to touch an intraday high of $50.85. The stock bounced off a low of $47.17 in the early going, a new six-month low for the share price and a more than 50% drop from DDD’s record high of $97.28 reached back on January 3rd. Shares managed to stay in the green for much of the session before succumbing to selling pressure this afternoon. Options expiring next week suggests at least one trader is positioning for further weakness in the near term.

The 17Apr’14 $47 puts traded more than 2,000 times this morning against previously existing open interest o...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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Pharmboy

Here We Go Again - Pharma & Biotechs 2014

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Ladies and Gentlemen, hobos and tramps,
Cross-eyed mosquitoes, and Bow-legged ants,
I come before you, To stand behind you,
To tell you something, I know nothing about.

And so the circus begins in Union Square, San Francisco for this weeks JP Morgan Healthcare Conference.  Will the momentum from 2013, which carried the S&P Spider Biotech ETF to all time highs, carry on in 2014?  The Biotech ETF beat the S&P by better than 3 points.

As I noted in my previous post, Biotechs Galore - IPOs and More, biotechs were rushing to IPOs so that venture capitalists could unwind their holdings (funds are usually 5-7 years), as well as take advantage of the opportune moment...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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