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David Tepper: Bill Gross “Who Cares?”, Regrets FNMA, Economy “Good”, Stocks Not Expensive

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

He's back. A month after Appaloosa's David Tepper explained the end of the bond bull market was here (and 10Y rates are now 5bps lower), the trend-following master-of-the-universe explained to Bloomberg TV's Stephanie Ruhle and Erik Schatzker how the departure of Bill Gross from PIMCO was "nothing… who cares?"; why "the US economy is pretty good", how junk bonds are at "fair value" and stocks are cheap as "multiples are not high." Finally he explains how he "wished he didn't have any investment" in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and clarifies in his billionaire-all-knowing-ness how he is sure the United States can contain Ebola.

Headlines:

  • *APPALOOSA'S TEPPER COMMENTS ON ECB ACTIONS IMPACTING BONDS
  • *TEPPER SAYS DRAGHI HASN'T DONE ANYTHING YET
  • *TEPPER SAYS DRAGHI HAS TO STOP THE NONSENSE
  • *TEPPER SAYS BILL GROSS EXIT MEANS NOTHING FOR MARKETS
  • *TEPPER SAYS BILL GROSS EXIT LONG-TERM NOT RELEVANT
  • *TEPPER SAYS U.S. EQUITIES INTERESTING ON MULTIPLES BASIS
  • *TEPPER SAYS U.S. ECONOMY PRETTY GOOD, STOCKS NOT HIGH MULTIPLES
  • *TEPPER SAYS HIGH YIELD IS AT MID-POINT OF FAIR VALUE
  • *TEPPER SAYS HE WISHES HE DIDN'T HAVE FANNIE, FREDDIE INVESTMENT
  • *TEPPER SAYS APPEAL FOR FANNIE, FREDDIE POSSIBLE

Full clip:

 

Excerpted Transcript:

On Bill Gross:

RUHLE: What does this Bill Gross exit mean for the market?

TEPPER: Nothing. Who cares?

On Draghi:

TEPPER: They haven't done any QE yet. So let them start some QE. But the beginning of the end was basically saying that when you create inflation and some inflation in the eurozone, then the bond market is going to start going down. If you don't create inflation in the eurozone of some sort or you don't stop the deflation, then that might not happen. But I do think that if they go in action, if they get in action, if they really get in action you will start creating inflation at some point in time. Until you do that, things will go where they go. And you can


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US Government Promises To Forgive Student Debt… If You Work For Them

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

He had a vision for what the state could be.

 

His vision was a state that was intricately involved in every person’s life from cradle to the grave.

 

It was responsible for their education, it was their place of work and source of income, and it would monitor and guide the entertainment for all of the society.

 

Life would be characterized by the government provision of care and support throughout. People would grow to rely upon the state in every aspect of their lives, and they would have no reason to seek out alternatives.

 

Eventually people would become dependent on the state’s survival for their survival. Thus their lives would then be dedicated to the ‘greater good’, with the individual existing simply for the state.

This terrifying vision of a dystopian society could only be the construct of an author like George Orwell or Ayn Rand, right? Something you would only see elaborated on the pages of fiction.

In fact, this was the vision of Otto von Bismarck, Chancellor of Imperial Germany in the 19th century.

And this wasn’t just a dream. It was a strategy.

From government healthcare at birth to education in a government school, followed by a career in civil service, and a government pension in old age, the state was with you from beginning to end.

One of the most important stages in the life-long relationship between the state and the individual in Bismarck’s mind was through employment.

There you were directly working to support the government’s aims (for the greater good of course), while at the same time being wholly dependent on them for your survival.

This was the cornerstone of his plan for the strength of the empire—having a populace entirely dependent on (and thus committed to) the state.

“My idea was to bribe the working classes, or shall I say, to win them over, to regard the state as a social institution existing for their sake and interested in their welfare,” Bismarck explained.

You can be sure that Bismarck would approve of modern society.

Today in the Land of the Free, everyone is required to pay into the Social Security system, and over 90% of students go to…
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Deflation As A Precursor Of A Weimar-like Inflation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Sprout Money.

Most people consider deflation the biggest enemy of the gold price, as gold is generally seen as an excellent hedge against inflation. Whilst this is generally correct, it doesn’t mean that a (short) period of deflation is a prelude of a crashing gold price.

As the very low inflation rate (and as there’s even official deflation in Italy and Belgium at this point in time), the European Central Bank is taking additional measures to pump several hundreds of billions of euros into the financial system which should theoretically boost the consumption pattern of the Eurozone citizens. It’s no secret the ECB wants the inflation rate to be ‘close to but not exceeding’ 2%, which is deemed to be the most sustainable number by several economists. At an inflation rate of 2% companies can increase their revenues fast enough, without the consumers being hit too hard.

The ECB has no problem to expand its balance sheet to the level of 2012, when the total balance was approximately 1000 billion euros higher than where it is today. On top of purchases of asset-backed securities, the ECB will directly pump cash in the banking system by making 400B EUR in 4-year loans available for the banks of the Eurozone at a cost of 0.15% per year. This should lead to an increased spending and increase the inflation rate as well, until the inflation rate is out of the danger zone and is hovering around the 2% mark again.

Not everybody in the board of the ECB is happy with this, and the president of the Bundesbank has openly criticized the ECB for causing inflation. In several interviews, president Jens Weidmann has stated that the ECB shouldn’t really intervene to actually create inflation. One would think that the governing council of the ECB would listen to a man whose country has experienced the worst inflation nightmare of all industrialized countries, less than 100 years ago.

If you look back at the official statistics of the horror-inflation during the Weimar-republic, it’s clearly visible that after a first bump of inflation there was actually a period of deflation before the snowball effect started to work. In a working paper, Steven Webb was able to gather all data from the period 1919-1923, and as you can see on the next image, the…
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Humpday Humor: Zimbabwe’s Unemployment Rate Is 4%, 10.7%, 60% Or 95%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While all the western banks are clearly envious at the facility with which Zimbabwe managed to hyperinflate away its debt mountain after simply printing a few trillion in fiat monetary equivalents, which instead of the stock market hit the broader economy, there is much more the “developed” world can learn and is learning from Robert Mugabe domain of experimental yet practical monetarism. On one hand, we find that it was former Goldmanite Mario Draghi, whose recent idea of a “Bad ECB Bank” was taken from none other than Zimbabwe:

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe created a company that will buy non-performing debt from banks. The Zimbabwe Asset Management Corp. will purchase the loans under commercial terms, and assign collateral and all other rights, the central bank said in its monetary policy statement yesterday.

 

The company will seek “to clean up and strengthen banks’ balance sheets and provide them with the liquidity to fund valuable projects for the economy to rebound and to mitigate loss of confidence,” the central bank said.

 

Non-performing loans at Zimbabwean banks swelled to 18.5 percent of total loans, or $705 million, in June from 1.6 percent in 2009, the central bank said. The high level of bad debt is the key threat to the country’s banking industry, Harare-based IH Securities said in May.

Why is Zimbabwe doing this? Simple: because as the Central Bank reports, Zimbabwe’s NPL ratio at various banks is as high as 91%, or roughly where it is in Europe if all the optical illusions, and Copperfieldian distractions were taken away (in addition to Cypriot deposits of course).

But that is nothing compared to the lessons none other than the US Department of Labor is about to learn from Zimbabwe’s own Bureau of Lies and Seasonality of Labor Statistics. Because in Zimbabwe the unemployment rate is either 4% or 95%. Depending on the “data” source.

Africa Check explains:

Zimbabwe’s unemployment rate “of 85%” is a ticking time bomb Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the country’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), recently said.

But how accurate is the 85% figure? Depending on the source, Zimbabwe’s unemployment rate has been estimated at as low as 4% and as
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Trannies Trounced, Credit Clobbered, Bonds Bid With Both Hands & Feet

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Well that escalated quickly. It appears "bad-news-is-bad-news" once again as ADP was the only saving grace and was just not bad enough to be good (or good enough to comfort escape-velocity-believers). For the 3rd day in a row, stocks saw an opening dump, European close pump, afternoon slump – this time led lower by Trannies (dragged lower by Ebola-scared airlines) down 2.5% (worst in 8 months). The Dow is rapidly approaching unch for the year. Treasury yields collapsed today (2Y -4bps, 30Y -9bps) with 7Y -13bps on the week. Gold rose modestly as silver and WTI crude plunged once again post-EU close. The USDdollar flatlined amid the carnage in bonds, stocks, and commodities. Lots of potential catalysts for today's weakness but desk chatter about Goldman questioning US growth was notable (as they closed out their growth basket). The Russell 2000 'closed' in 10% correction.

 

 

3rd day in a row of opening dump, European close pump, afternoon slump

 

Once again post EU Close – Silver, Crude and stocks tumbled in sync…

 

This was Trannies biggest single-day drop in 8 months…

 

"Sell In May" is starting to look like a good strategy…

 

 

VIX slamdown into the close kept stocks off the lows (thanksa to HFTs breaking the CFE)

 

Leaving the index to blow lower all on its own…

 

Treasuries, JPY, and Stocks were a one way street today…

 

as was credit… with a VIX driven bouince into the close

 

As Treasury Yields collapsed  to 10-13bps lower on the week…

 

NOTE: Credit protection rallied modestly into the close and Treasury yields accelerated lower – smells a lot like a corporate-bond spread focused liquidation (lift protection as unwind underlyings – which means sell corp bonds, buy TSYs)

 

The Dollar went nowhere today – JPY strengthened modestly – amid all the craziness…

 

Gold rose modestly as silver and crude crashed once again…

 

And a gentle reminder to those that were absent today… (FYI – this is a 2014 updated version of the original) – so Buy The F##king Dip… If You Don't You're a F##king Idiot!

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: The Gold-Silver ratio is back at 71 – the same level when Lehman failed…





VIX Options Halted As CBOE Breaks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As the late-day VIX slamdown began, and stocks levitated off the lows, CBOE’s Futures Exchange “broke.” At 1542ET, VIX futures/options stopped trading (though the VIX index continued to push lower).

CFE Breaks…

 

As Futures get going…

 

Leaving the index to blow lower all on its own…





Secret Service Head Resigns, Claims It Was “Noble Thing To Do”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Noting that is “in the best interest” of the US, Secret Service Director Julia Pierson has resigned following ‘fence-jumper’-gate. While “disappointed” she could implement reforms (of her own policies?) she felt it was the “noble thing to do.” In the full statement below, they are careful to point out just how great the Secret Service is “there is no other protection service in the world” like them, they modestly note. Nope, none indeed. Ironically, as she resigns, the White House intruder just plead “not guilty.”

  • *JULIA PIERSON COMMENTS IN INTERVIEW WITH BLOOMBERG
  • *PIERSON SAYS IN `BEST INTEREST’ FOR U.S. TO STEP DOWN
  • *PIERSON: `DISAPPOINTED’ SHE COULDN’T IMPLEMENT CHANGES, VISION
  • *PIERSON SAYS IT WAS CLEAR CONGRESS LOST CONFIDENCE IN HER
  • *PIERSON SAYS `IT’S PAINFUL TO LEAVE’
  • *PIERSON SAYS SHE FELT RESIGNATION WAS `NOBLE THING TO DO’

Full Statement

h/t @ZekeJMiller

 

And via WSJ:

The intruder who allegedly scaled a White House fence, knocked back a Secret Service agent and darted into the executive mansion pleaded not guilty to federal charges on Wednesday.





A “No Social Media List” For Extremists And Potential Terrorists?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The American Dream blog,

You have heard of the “No Fly List”, right?  Well, now the Tories are pledging that if they win the next election in the UK they will establish a list of “extremists” that will have to have their social media posts “approved in advance by the police” before they post them.  There are also plans to ban “extremists” from broadcasting and speaking at public events.  The stated goal of these proposals is to crack down on terrorism, but in the process the civil liberties of the British people are going to be flushed down the toilet.  And the American people need to pay close attention to what is going on in the UK, because whatever police state measures are implemented over there usually also get implemented over here eventually.  For those that believe that we need to do “whatever it takes” to fight terrorism, there is a very important question that you need to ask yourself.  What if the government decides that you are an “extremist” because of what you believe?  What will you do then?

When I saw a report in the Telegraph today entitled “Extremists to have Facebook and Twitter vetted by anti-terror police“, I could hardly believe it.

Do the British people actually want a “no social media list” that will essentially ban people from using Facebook and Twitter even though they haven’t actually been convicted of doing anything wrong?

The following is a brief excerpt from that article

Extremists will have to get posts on Facebook and Twitter approved in advance by the police under sweeping rules planned by the Conservatives.

 

They will also be barred from speaking at public events if they represent a threat to “the functioning of democracy”, under the new Extremist Disruption Orders.

 

Theresa May, the Home Secretary, will lay out plans to allow judges to ban people from broadcasting or protesting in certain places, as well as associating with specific people.

 

The plans — to be brought in if the Conservatives win the election in May — are part of a wide-ranging set of rules to strengthen the Government’s counter-terrorism


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PiRaTe WoMeN OF THe DNC…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.





Goldman Global Leading Indicator Drastically Revised, Collapses Into “Confirmed Slowdown”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just 2 short weeks ago, Goldman nervously admitted that possibly perhaps maybe their Global Leading Indicator was indicating a “slowdown” was coming, but remained hopeful that the rest of the month would see data pick up and prove them wrong. Now that the final data has been released for the various components of the index, the ‘exuberant’ recovery of the last few months has been massively revised lower. As Goldman itself notes, the September Final GLI came in at 2.6% YoY, providing a clear signal of “Slowdown”, with the data now in hand further suggesting that the GLI first may have entered the ‘Slowdown’ phase back in July.

 

Via Goldman Sachs,

The September Final GLI came in at 2.6%yoy, a decline relative to the August reading. Momentum decreased to 0.15%mom relative to last month’s reading of 0.29%. Although the degree of deceleration remains quite modest, the September GLI print provides a clear signal of ‘Slowdown’, with the data now in hand further suggesting that the GLI first may have entered the ‘Slowdown’ phase back in July.

This comes after an initial August reading that still placed the GLI in ‘Expansion’, but very close to Slowdown, and after both the September and August Advanced GLI readings placed the cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase.

 

Red arrows show the revisions from last month…

 

Components mixed

Six of the ten underlying components of the GLI worsened in September. Three of last month’s four improving components came in softer.

The September Final GLI places the global industrial cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase, which is defined by positive but decreasing momentum. This may be driven by some data coming in lower after fairly high prints in previous months, such as the Global PMI and NOIN. Along with the Advanced GLI readings in August and September, which located the GLI in ‘Slowdown’, this Final GLI reading comes in a broader context of stable and compressed growth, where small changes may lead to shifts in cycle phases.





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

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Why the Fed Is So Wimpy

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Another in what seems to be a small parade of scandals involving secretly recorded tapes of Federal Reserve regulators emerged last week. What a number of writers (including me) have written about regulatory capture over the past decade was brought out into the open, at least for a while. My brilliant young friend (40 seems young to me now) Justin Fox, editorial director of the Harvard Business Review and business and economic columnist for Time magazine, published a thoughtful essay this week, outlining some of the issues surrounding the whole concept of banking regulations.

Yes, the latest scandal involved Goldman Sachs, and it took place in the US, but do you really think it’s much different in Europe or Japan? Actually, there are those who a...



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Zero Hedge

David Tepper: Bill Gross "Who Cares?", Regrets FNMA, Economy "Good", Stocks Not Expensive

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

He's back. A month after Appaloosa's David Tepper explained the end of the bond bull market was here (and 10Y rates are now 5bps lower), the trend-following master-of-the-universe explained to Bloomberg TV's Stephanie Ruhle and Erik Schatzker how the departure of Bill Gross from PIMCO was "nothing... who cares?"; why "the US economy is pretty good", how junk bonds are at "fair value" and stocks are cheap as "multiples are not high." Finally he explains how he "wish...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: October Opens with a Selloff

Courtesy of Doug Short.

When it comes to monthly market volatility in the S&P 500, October tops the list, ranging from its 16.3% surge in 1974 to its 21.8% plunge in 1987. How will October 2014 stack up on the volatility scale? Time will tell. But the month certainly opened on a weak note, dropping 1.32%, the sixth largest one-day decline so far this year. The index closed a bit off its -1.52% intraday low at the start of the final hour of trading. The intraday range was at the 96th percentile of the 189 market days of 2014.

The selloff in equities was matched by a rally in Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.42%, down 10 bps from yesterday's close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions

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The Mexican Libertad: The Currency Solution?

Better than a Bitcoin? The Mexican Libertad is a real coin made out of silver or gold whose value is based on the price of silver or gold. It's tangible, like our coins and paper money, but the value is pegged to its weight in previous metal. 

The Mexican Libertad: The Currency Solution?

By Jeff Thomas of The International Man

The Libertad is a Mexican coin that was first issued in 1981 in .999 fine gold and then in silver in 1982. Beginning in 1991, the Libertades became the only coins in the world that were issued in the convenient sizes of 1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 ounce—again, in both gold and silver. This made them very practical if they were to be used as currency.

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Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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UPDATE: JMP Securities Downgrades eBay Inc

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VIX Call Spreads Trade

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Sector Detector: Stocks fight off predictable weakness, but expect more downside

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Yes, the market showed significant weakness last week for the first time in quite a while. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved triple digits each day. But it was all quite predictable, as I suggested in last week's article, and certainly nothing to worry about. Now the market appears to be poised for a modest technical rebound, and longer term, U.S. equities should be in good shape for a year-end rally. However, I still believe more downside is in order before any new highs are challenged. Moreover, market breadth is important for a sustained bull run, so the challenge for investors will be to put together broader bullish conviction, including the small caps.

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 29th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

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Ebola is spreading too quickly for Ebola-vaccine makers to conduct typical studies of safety and efficacy on experimental vaccines. Instead, vaccines will be tested for basic safety, but then deployed with protocols devised now in order to test for efficacy essentially on the field. Testing has to be expedited because the situation in West Africa gets worse every day while there are no approved vaccines or other treatments.

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Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest issue of Stock World Weekly is now available. Please sign in with your PSW user name and password. Or simply take a free trial to try out our weekly newsletter. 

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Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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