Apple at $1000/share? Oh, at LEAST!
by Zero Hedge - February 11th, 2012 3:18 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tim Knight from Slope of Hope.
(Note – I got an invitation from Tyler this morning to contribute to ZeroHedge, which completely made my day. I’ve got a little blog called the Slope of Hope, wrapping up its 7th year. I hope to become a regular here over at ZH; thanks, Tyler!)
Most of you have probably already seen the bullgasm happening over at Barron’s. Here’s their cover for the week:
Nothing sums up the euphoria these days better than Apple, Inc. The stock is up nearly 40,000% since 1982 and, more recently, is up about 500% over the past three years. The company seems unable to do wrong (unlike, say, its former arch-rival RIMM), and the media is awash in predictions of the stock reaching $1,000 per share. There doesn’t seem to be much basis for this except that it is a Big Round Number, which also would make Apple’s market cap an Oh-So-Round trillion bucks.
Now let me make clear I am no Apple-basher. Anyone who knows anything about my background knows I have been an Apple fan since the early 1980s. My first Macintosh was purchased in early 1984; I got my first iPhone (the first of many) on its introduction day (which I chronicled with this video), and my first iPad on its debut day. I’m not one of the crazies that waits in line for four days; I simply show up later in the day, pay for it, and resume with my life.
My fondness for Steve Jobs is well known too. A simple query on YouTube for “Tim Knight Steve Jobs”yields a plethora of hits, and I even worked at Apple for a number of years. So with all of that as a preamble, I have no ax to grind with the good people in Cupertino.
But the long-term chart looks really, really, reaaaaaaaaaaaly extended. Look at this gigantic ascending wedge spanning back to when the stock was in the single digits.
…..look a little closer……..
…..and closer still……..
We are right up against that massive trendline. Does this mean Apple doesn’t have a prayer of
…
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by Zero Hedge - February 11th, 2012 1:57 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by williambanzai7.
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This Time Next US Presidential Campaign: $24.1 Trillion In Debt, 138.9% Debt/GDP
by Zero Hedge - February 11th, 2012 12:18 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
While Obama may or may not be on the way to winning his reelection, courtesy of a GOP field that is, to say the least, limited, and where the only worthy candidate is more ostracized by the right than even anyone on the left, the bottom line is that whoever wins the presidency, it will matter precisely didley squat. As the US debt clock shows, fast forwarding 4 years, or to February 2016, when the next presidential race will be in its final stretch, America will have $24.1 trillion in debt, about $9 trillion more than it does, now on $17.4 trillion in GDP, for a gross debt to GDP ratio of 138.9% (and Apple’s $1 trillion market cap will account for 150% of the Nasdaq… just as IBM is 125% of the DJIA). Needless to say, it will be long past game over at that point confirming that the current presidential race, with its exciting tangential detours into female fertility, moon bases, LBO IRR maximization courtesy of cost-cutting, is completely and utterly meaningless. Also, keep in mind, “at current rates” for an endspiel that has now entered the exponential phase in virtually every category, is to say the least, optimistic. Yes, interest rates may be negative in 2016, but that means that the liquidity trap endgame has not only begun, but is well on its way to ending, and mercifully putting an end to this whole Keynesian “sustainability” charade. Remember: Japan’s debt-deflation lasted for 30 years only thanks to new pockets of incremental global leverage and inflation: China and the PIIGS. This time, absent the levering of the entire continent of Africa, there is noone who can take the releverage baton and run. Which means the only “buyers” will be the central banks. At least back in the day, Weimar just one nation. This time, it will be the “Weimar World.”
The Cost Of The Combined Greek Bailout Just Rose To €320 Billion In Secured Debt, Or 136% Of Greek GDP
by Zero Hedge - February 11th, 2012 11:02 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Some of our German readers may be laboring under the impression that following the €110 billion first Greek bailout agreed upon and executed in May 2010, the second Greek bailout would cost a “mere” €130 billion. Alas we have new for you – as of this morning, the formal cost of rescuing Greece for the adjusted adjusted adjusted second time has just risen to €145 billion, €175 billion, a whopping €210 billion, bringing the total explicit cost of all Greek bailout funds to date (and many more in store) to €320 billion. Which incidentally is a little more than Greek GDP (which however is declining rapidly) at 310 billion, only in dollars. So as of today, merely the ratio of the Greek DIP loan (Debtor In Possession, because Greece is after all broke) has reached a whopping ratio of 136% Debt to GDP. This excludes any standing debt which is for all intents and purposes worthless. This is secured debt, which means that if every dollar in assets generating one dollar in GDP were to be liquidated and Greece sold off entirely in part or whole to Goldman Sachs et al, there would still be a 36% shortfall to the Troika, EFSF, ECB and whoever else funds the DIP loan (i.e., European and US taxpayers)! Another way of putting this disturbing fact is that global bankers now have a priming lien on 136% of Greek GDP - the entire country and then some now officially belongs to the world banking syndicate. Consider that when evaluating Greek promises of reducing total debt to GDP to 120% in 2020, as it would mean wiping all existing “pre-petition debt” and paying off some of the DIP. Also keep in mind that Greece has roughly €240 billion in existing pre-petition debt, of which much will remain untouched as it is not held in Private hands (this is the debt which will see a major “haircut” – or not: all depends on the holdout lawsuits, the local vs non-local bonds and various other nuances discussed here). If you said this is beyond idiotic, you are right. It is not the imairment on the Greek “pre-petition’ debt that the market should be worried about – that clearly is 100% wiped out. It…
Ten Minutes With Italy’s Mario Monti
by Zero Hedge - February 10th, 2012 10:43 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by CrownThomas.
Italy's Prime Minister (and self appointed economy minister) shot over to CNBC after his meeting with President Obama this afternoon to discuss how well everything looks for Italy since he was elected took over.
Notable Comments:
- Italian banks are "vulnerable" but have recapitalized themselves (rather, the ECB has given them money)
- He had a good meeting with Obama, and Obama is supportive (he's careful to mention not financially supportive – perhaps forgetting how much the Federal Reserve bails out Euro banks)
- A plan has been in place since January 1st to balance the budget by 2013 (Obama apparently didn't pay attention to this little tidbit)
- Political cost is not a relevant matter… for the unelected government – the people will be happy to know it doesn't matter one bit what they want, the former Goldman Advisor knows what's best for them
- He plans to transfer tax burdens to indvidual property owners and not burden corporations (should help the middle class)
- S&P decision to downgrade Italian banks was due to previous leadership's decisions (he learned a little from President Obama)
FTW: "If somebody considers investing in Italy now, thy should not be too worried about what comes next"
A few visuals on why nobody should worry:
Sol Sanders | Follow the money No. 105 |A confusion of roles
by Zero Hedge - February 10th, 2012 10:12 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by rcwhalen.
"Oh, what a relief to fight, to fight enemies who defend themselves, enemies who are awake!"
Ch’en Ta Erh
Man's Fate
Latest from Uncle Sol, a version of which may appear in the Washington Times on Monday next. Chris
Follow the money No. 105 — A confusion of roles
Sol Sanders <solsanders@cox.net>
Minxin Pei, the most original of current Sinologists, makes the point authoritarian/totalitarian regimes inherently prioritize requirements for protecting regime leaders over long-term national interest. To preserve the former’s power, they sacrifice the latter’s needs. In the process, they encourage breakdown in the world order. Beijing is now demonstrating the phenomenon in spades.
By using its UN Security Council veto, Beijing exacerbated the already intractable problem of Syria. Under the propaganda rubric of non-interference in others’ internal affairs, it blocks [along with its camp follower, Moscow] a fumbling, U.S. “lead from behind”, international effort to force out a brutal, Damascus regime. Eroding, it nevertheless has troubling entangling political and ethnic tentacles to all the countries around it.
Tagging along, Russia’s fading Prime Minister — but apparently president again to be — Vladimir Putin is trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat: to preserve some semblance of the old Soviets’ strategic influence in the Arab world with its former Syrian satellite. It’s so much bluff. Russia neither has resources — including military — nor, in the end, can it be assured a guiding role on an unknowable successor regime despite the celebrated talents of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. And, surprisingly, for once, the Arabs are united in wanting to dump Asaad and his problems before he spreads chaos to the whole region.
Whatever else motivates the Zhongnanhai, the one-party Chinese state Beijing GHQ, there’s paranoia about the North African Jasmine revolutions – so far away but instilling fear their infection might somehow ignite China’s own growing domestic political kindling. Furthermore, that scent of Jasmine further frightens China now turned acrid as an Arab Spring rapidly drifts into hands of Islamic radicals. With its own 25 million Muslims, especially the rebellious Turkic Uighurs of vast Singkiang bordering on Central Asia, it has experience with Islamic terrorism.
Communist Chinese leadership has plenty of other intruding realities. Obscured by events elsewhere, there is again a wave…
Sol Sanders | Follow the money No. 105 | A confusion of roles
by Zero Hedge - February 10th, 2012 10:12 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by rcwhalen.
“Oh, what a relief to fight, to fight enemies who defend themselves, enemies who are awake!”
Ch’en Ta Erh
Man’s Fate
Latest from Uncle Sol, a version of which may appear in the Washington Times on Monday next. Chris
Follow the money No. 105 — A confusion of roles
#0000ff;”> Sol Sanders <solsanders@cox.net>
Minxin Pei, the most original of current Sinologists, makes the point authoritarian/totalitarian regimes inherently prioritize requirements for protecting regime leaders over long-term national interest. To preserve the former’s power, they sacrifice the latter’s needs. In the process, they encourage breakdown in the world order. Beijing is now demonstrating the phenomenon in spades.
By using its UN Security Council veto, Beijing exacerbated the already intractable problem of Syria. Under the propaganda rubric of non-interference in others’ internal affairs, it blocks [along with its camp follower, Moscow] a fumbling, U.S. “lead from behind”, international effort to force out a brutal, Damascus regime. Eroding, it nevertheless has troubling entangling political and ethnic tentacles to all the countries around it.
Tagging along, Russia’s fading Prime Minister — but apparently president again to be — Vladimir Putin is trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat: to preserve some semblance of the old Soviets’ strategic influence in the Arab world with its former Syrian satellite. It’s so much bluff. Russia neither has resources — including military — nor, in the end, can it be assured a guiding role on an unknowable successor regime despite the celebrated talents of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. And, surprisingly, for once, the Arabs are united in wanting to dump Asaad and his problems before he spreads chaos to the whole region.
Whatever else motivates the Zhongnanhai, the one-party Chinese state Beijing GHQ, there’s paranoia about the North African Jasmine revolutions – so far away but instilling fear their infection might somehow ignite China’s own growing domestic political kindling. Furthermore, that scent of Jasmine further frightens China now turned acrid as an Arab Spring rapidly drifts into hands of Islamic radicals. With its own 25 million Muslims, especially the rebellious Turkic Uighurs of vast Singkiang bordering on Central Asia, it has experience with Islamic terrorism.
Communist Chinese leadership has plenty of other intruding realities. Obscured by events elsewhere, there is again a wave of protest among the repressed Tibetans in southwest China. With a deteriorating situation in neighboring Afghanistan and with its ally Pakistan in domestic turmoil, Beijing must worry about all its Central Asian borders. All that is above and beyond almost daily news of local dissidence as Beijing’s economy has to climb down rapidly off high growth. There is plenty of promise for tough decisions awaiting a still contested generational change of leadership this fall.
Chinese leaders repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot. No one is more dependent on Mideast stability and its oil supply than China’s economy. By siding with the crumbling Basher al-Asaad regime – rather than joining the belated Western and Arab League effort to finesse a negotiated succession to that Mideast powderkeg — Beijing is threatening its own vital interests. Beijing also supports Assad’s sugardaddy, Iran, against an almost universal allied effort [again with Moscow’s notable exception] to block the mullahs’ nuclear weapons.
If a breakout of the escalating Syrian conflict or an Israel/U.S. military attempt to halt Iran’s progress toward nuclear weapons sets off even a 200-day regional conflict, it would be catastrophic for the Chinese economy. Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of the China Energy Resources Net, recently warned China’s estimated reserve of only 110 million barrels would last only 46 days if there were a Persian Gulf closure. China’s dependence upon imported crude is far greater than the United States’ with some 40% coming from the Gulf. But only a declining 11% actually comes from Iran, the rest from the Arab states now unsuccessfully lobbying China to help defuse the Syrian timebomb and halt Iran’s nukes.
Western leadership, notably among the U.S. naval military, has tried to persuade itself and the world Beijing’s growing power would be a “peaceful rise”. That was the phrase, now abandoned in the Beijing lexicon, formerly used by Chinese scholars and propagandists to describe how a renascent China would not repeat the bitter history of a burgeoning Germany’s bloody ascent into world leadership in the 19th and 20th century. Alas! Abandoning the phrase may be symptomatic of where Beijing leadership now thinks its primary interests lie.
Unfortunately, corrupt Chinese leadership – based on “revolutionary” genealogy, that is elevation of scions of old Communist families – increasingly dominates Beijing decision-making. If that continues to be the case, China will become an even greater source of international friction, threatening its world partners as well as its own future.
sws-02=11-12
Proof The January Jobs Number Was Real
by Zero Hedge - February 10th, 2012 9:10 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by CrownThomas.
Not convinced NFP was +243,000 in January? Fret no more folks, proof has surfaced.
Jobs are in fact being created – Unions are paying protesters, and not only for occupy wall street demonstrations.
The gentleman in the following video confirms that the AFL-CIO is paying protesters $60 dollars a head to gather together and pretend to care about the cause. Well, at least there’s one organization not letting cash build up on their balance sheet.
Will this be added to their unemployment taxes?
Guest Post: The DHS Defends Globalism, Not America
by Zero Hedge - February 10th, 2012 5:20 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Submitted by Brandon Smith from Alt Market
The DHS Defends Globalism, Not America
The Department Of Homeland Security is the very epitome of unnecessary bureaucracy. Its formation was predicated on the existence of terrorist threats, many of which the U.S. government and orbiting alphabet agencies either created through acts of war, or fabricated out of thin air. Its policies of centralization were sold to the public as necessary to prevent systemic “miscommunications” that never actually took place. Throughout our history, it has been a rare occasion indeed when an attack falls upon American infrastructure or interests that was not influenced, directly or indirectly, by the actions of agencies which were supposedly employed to prevent such events from ever occurring. Whether through ‘blowback’, or through ‘false flag’, frankly, most of the harm that comes to our nation is perpetrated by the guiding hand of our inexorably corrupt government.
Knowing that the DHS was established on false pretenses forces us to question the agency’s true intentions, especially when a professional fear-monger like Secretary Janet Napolitano announces that the globalization of the world economy falls within her jurisdiction:
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2012/01/27/the-urgent-need-to-protect-the-global-supply-chain/
Average citizens would assume that the DHS is a U.S.-centric institution, and regardless of its Orwellian behavior, is at the very least a distinctly American brand of tyranny. However, under encroaching strategies enforced since 2006 through the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP), it is becoming very apparent that the Department Of Homeland Security is quickly taking on an “all-of-nation” role, most prominently in the defense of globalization:
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/NIPP_Plan.pdf
In her most recent op-ed / propaganda piece published by Reuters, Napolitano makes it clear that the business of the DHS is lately focused on what she calls “global supply chain security”. This by itself could be seen as a perfectly logical extension of the DHS mandate to protect America. Unfortunately, the situation is not that simple. A few talking points and guidelines within the NIPP platform are rather disturbing, and create an open door for the internationalization of the DHS.
Ironically, Napolitano sets the stage first by pointing out the brittle nature of globalization, along with its numerous vulnerabilities:
“A vulnerability or gap in any part of the world has the ability to affect the flow of goods and people thousands of miles away. For instance,…
BaNZai7 EXCLuSiVe: WHeRe Is KiM JoNG UN?
by Zero Hedge - February 10th, 2012 5:02 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by williambanzai7.
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