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The Iran “Talks” – Just Another US vs Russia (And China) Power Game

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update, and just as expected: IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATORS MAY MISS 3RD DEADLINE: U.S. OFFICIAL

In what has been the world’s longest negotiation (we are only modestly joking: the Iran P5+1 nuclear “talks” started in 2013 and have yet to achieve anything) one whose “rolling deadline” has been breached time and time again, it appears that with today’s latest deadline just hours away, the most likely outcome is another deadline extension even though, as Reuters puts it, “Iran and six world powers ramped up the pace on Tuesday in negotiations over a preliminary deal on Tehran’s nuclear program, while officials cautioned that any agreement would likely be fragile and incomplete.”

The negotiations, which we have largely ignored covering as the past has abundantly shown that nothing ever actually gets done except for a lot of talking, posturing, gesticulating and pizza-ordering, have seen the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China trying to break an impasse in the talks, which are aimed at stopping Iran from gaining the capacity to develop a nuclear bomb in exchange for easing international sanctions that are crippling its economy.

As a reminder, it is the “threat” of an amicable resolution and a resumption in Iran oil exports that has been presented as the cause for oil’s most recent weakness.

According to the conventional narrative “disagreements on enrichment research and the pace of lifting sanctions threatened to scupper a deal that could end a 12-year standoff between Iran and the West over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and reduce the risk of another Middle East war.”

“The two sticking points are the duration and the lifting of sanctions,” an Iranian official said. “The two sides are arguing about the content of the text. Generally progress has been made.”

They said the main sticking points remain the removal of U.N. sanctions and Iranian demands for the right to unfettered research and development into advanced nuclear centrifuges after the first 10 years of the agreement expires.

Iran said the key issue was lifting sanctions quickly.

“There will be no agreement if the sanctions issue cannot be resolved,” Majid Takhteravanchi, an Iranian negotiator, told Iran’s Fars news agency. “This issue is very important for us.”

The six powers want more than a 10-year suspension of Iran’s most sensitive nuclear work. Tehran,


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$100 Trillion Global Bond Bubble Poses “Systemic Risk” To Financial System

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by GoldCore.

$100 Trillion Global Bond Bubble Poses “Systemic Risk” To Financial System

  • Global bond bubble poses systemic risk to financial system
  • FT warns that a June rate hike could put fixed-income funds under severe pressure
  • Fed’s Bullard warns of “dire consequences” of developing asset price bubbles
  • UK fund managers worried about “inflated value of bonds”
  • Regulators talk tough but have wavered since 2011
  • Mutual fund markets have “ballooned” since 2008
  • “Gates” or capital controls that limit investor withdrawals in troubled times are likely

The Financial Times warned today about the growing global ‘bond bubble’ and potential severe problems in the bond markets and ‘systemic risk’ which may come to a head in June if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.

ft

In an article entitled “Time to find out hard way if asset management is systemic risk“, it quotes James Bullard from the Fed warning of “dire consequences” due to developing asset price bubbles if the Fed does not raise rates soon.

It refers to fact that “80 per cent of fund managers surveyed by CFA UK, a financial standards body, signalled worries about the inflated value of bonds.” It discusses how plans have been in the making to manage risks posed by certain funds by “boosting supervision of asset managers.”

For example, earlier this month “the Financial Stability Board and the International Organisation of Securities Commissions promised a plan to identify systemically important funds and contain their risks.”

The FT explains that such regulation was requested by the G20 at the end of 2011. The FT warns that the plan to make a plan – which will not be operational until early next year – will come too late to deal with the expected Fed rate hike.

chart_1_31-03-2015

A report published this month by Morgan Stanley and consultants at Oliver Wyman argues that “the closest parallel to today’s scenario occurred in 1994, when an increase in Fed rates was followed by a 5 per cent outflow from fixed-income funds.”

Today such funds are holding roughly 7 per cent of their assets in cash with which to weather potential outflows. However, the article warns that “many bond watchers are nervous that the fundamental changes in the financial world make historical parallels misleading”, particularly the “scale of the market”.

U.S. mutual funds which make up half…
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Market Opens On A Weak Note And… Nasdaq Breaks.. And Then NYSE Breaks After Chicago PMI

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: Post-Chicago PMI selling prompted yet another break!!! This time in the NYSE…

  • *BATS EDGX DECLARED SELF-HELP VS NYSE ARCA PER RULE 611 NMS
  • *BATS EXCHANGE: BATS BYX EXCHANGE HAS DECLARED SELF-HELP VS NYSE

This is just farce now…

*  *  *

Update: after the initial selling stabilized, the Nasdaq has unbroken:

  • Exchange has revoked self-help against Nasdaq per Rule 611 of Regulation NMS. Routing to Nasdaq has been resumed as of 09:43:01 ET.

Problem is that the huge Chicago PMI may not be huge enough to prompt a fresh wave of BTFDers.

* * * * *

Overnight selling meets panic buying at the open and this happens.

  • *BATS BYX EXCHANGE HAS DECLARED SELF-HELP VS NASDAQ
  • *BATS BZX, BYX EXCHANGES DECLARE SELF-HELF AGAINST NASDAQ

New Normal…

and this happens…





Consumer Confidence Surges Higher As ‘Hope’ Trumps Reality

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following February’s drop from ‘recovery’ cycle highs (which has now been erased by previous revisions! why are confidence measures seasonally-adjusted anyway?), despite surging gas prices, terrible economic data, and dismal weather, March consumer confidence explodes higher. Printing 101.3, massively beating expectations of 96.4, this is just shy of the cycle highs in January. Of course, it’s all hope… the present situation index actually dropped notably from 112.1 to 109.1 as future expectations surged from 90.0 to 96.0, but fewer people plan to buy homes or major applicances in the next 6 months.

Bounce…

As Hope trumps reality once again…

Charts: Bloomberg





Marxist Group Takes Turkish Prosecutor Hostage, Posts Pictures

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It’s been a tumultuous day in Turkey. 

In the midst of a near-nationwide blackout that grounded planes and froze rail traffic and which officials say could be terror-linked, armed gunman have taken a prosecutor hostage in an Istanbul court house. The prosecutor, Mehmet Selim Kiraz, is in charge of the investigation into the death of a 14-year old boy who died after being hit in the head by a tear gas canister in 2013 amid widespread protests. Here’s more via BBC:

A banned Marxist revolutionary group is suspected of being behind the incident.

A statement posted online said the prosecutor would be killed if their demands were not met.

Berkin Elvan, who was then 14, was struck in the head by a police tear gas canister in June 2013 as he went to buy bread during mass demonstrations that began in Istanbul and spread across Turkey.

After nine months in a coma he eventually died in an Istanbul hospital.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, now Turkey’s president, inflamed passions shortly after the teenager’s death when he said the boy had been carrying a slingshot and had been “taken up into terrorist organisations”…

Suspected members of the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C) took the prosecutor hostage on the sixth floor of the Caglayan court house, reports said.

A website close to the group has published a series of demands, including calls for an immediate confession from police officers responsible for the boy’s death, and for an end to prosecutions of protesters charged over the clashes.

And a bit more color from Reuters:

The Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C) published a picture of the prosecutor with a gun to his head and said it would kill him at 1236 GMT, three hours after gunmen stormed his office, unless its demands were met.

Turkish television stations cut live broadcasts as the deadline passed, some citing a reporting ban. There was no immediate sign of any police action, according to Reuters correspondents at the scene.

Special forces have reportedly stormed the court house and the government has now imposed a press ban. Via Bloomberg:

Turkish prime ministry cites national security for imposition of a temporary press ban, according to state-run Anadolu news agency. 

NOTE: Ban applies to hostage situation at the Caglayan courthouse in Istanbul.


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Market Opens On A Weak Note And… Nasdaq Breaks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: after the initial selling stabilized, the Nasdaq has unbroken:

  • Exchange has revoked self-help against Nasdaq per Rule 611 of Regulation NMS. Routing to Nasdaq has been resumed as of 09:43:01 ET.

Problem is that the huge Chicago PMI may not be huge enough to prompt a fresh wave of BTFDers.

* * * * *

Overnight selling meets panic buying at the open and this happens.

  • *BATS BYX EXCHANGE HAS DECLARED SELF-HELP VS NASDAQ
  • *BATS BZX, BYX EXCHANGES DECLARE SELF-HELF AGAINST NASDAQ

New Normal…

and this happens…





Chicago PMI Fails To Bounce Back, Hovers Near 6-Year Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite the hockey-stick-like expectations of all the clever economists, Chicago PMI failed to bounce back from its total carnage in February. Printing 46.3 against expectations of 51.4, the index remains at near six-year lows. Must be the weather… oh apart from the massive surge in Midwest pending home sales…? This is the biggest 5-month plunge since Lehman.

Not what the Keynesian mean-reverters were hoping for…

With the biggest 5-month plunge since Lehman…

Under the covers, slight improvement…

  • Forecast range 45 – 55 from 42 economists surveyed
  • Prices Paid fell compared to last month
  • New Orders rose compared to last month
  • Employment rose compared to last month
  • Inventory rose compared to last month
  • Supplier Deliveries fell compared to last month
  • Production rose compared to last month
  • Order Backlogs rose compared to last month
  • Business activity has been positive for 10 months over the past year.
  • Number of Components Rising: 5

Charts: Bloomberg





Case-Shiller Index Resumes Decline Following Small Gain To End 2014

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Weather-crushed January saw seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller home prices – and as a reminder Case-Shiller expressly warns not to use seasonal data but opts for raw, unadjusted reporting – rise 0.87% MoM (better than expected), slower than the revised 0.91% gain in December. However, away from the 'make-everything-feel-better' adjustments, home prices slipped in January following December's brief interlude, leaving the index down 4 of the last 5 months. Of course, it goes witghout sayiung that weather was blamed, as they suggest, "unusually cold and wet weather may have weakened activity in some cities." What is more worrisome however, and farcical, is Case-Shiller's ominous warning against rate hikes, "home prices are rising roughly twice as fast as wages, putting pressure on potential homebuyers and heightening the risk that any uptick in interest rates could be a major setback."

Following December's blip, January resumed the falling trend…

Without the seasonal adjustments that make everything feel better: in fact a flat line is the best the market can hope for.

As Case-Shiller note,

“The combination of low interest rates and strong consumer confidence based on solid job growth, cheap oil and low inflation continue to support further increases in home prices” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Regional patterns in recent months continue: strength in the west and southwest paced by Denver and Dallas with results ahead of the national index in the California cities, the Pacific Northwest and Las Vegas. The northeast and Midwest are mostly weaker than the national index.

“Despite price gains, the housing market faces some difficulties. Home prices are rising roughly twice as fast as wages, putting pressure on potential homebuyers and heightening the risk that any uptick in interest rates could be a major setback. Moreover, the new home sector is weak; residential construction is still below its pre-crisis peak. Any time before 2008 that housing starts were as low as the current rate of one million, the economy was in a recession.”

As for the breakdown by MSA, San Francisco is back to being the laggard, seeing a 0.9% drop sequentially.

From the report:

Of the nine cities that reported increases, Charlotte, Miami, and San Diego led all cities in January with increases of 0.7%. San Francisco


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How The Fed Has Failed The Nation (In One Chart)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

There is only one way to end the financial tyranny of the Federal Reserve – abolish it, and put an end to the predatory pathologies of its policies.

 
The Federal Reserve has failed not just the nation and the U.S. economy, but more importantly, the American people that it supposedly serves. It has also failed the world, by showing other central banks that they can reward private banks and top .01% with absolute impunity.
 
The supposed goal of the Fed's zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and quantitative easing (QE) was to make borrowing easier for both corporations and consumers, the idea being companies would borrow to invest in new productive capacity and consumers would buy the new goods and services being produced with cheap credit.
 
The secondary publicly stated goal was to spark a rally in stocks, bonds and real estate that would spark a wealth effect: as households saw their net worth rise, they would feel wealthier and thus more likely to buy goods and services they didn't need on credit.
 
The real reason for ZIRP and QE was to rebuild the balance sheets and profits of banks on the backs of savers who have earned near-zero thanks to the Fed's manipulation of markets. But setting aside the obvious success of the Fed's real goals--enriching the banks and the super-wealthy who have access to near-zero interest credit--let's see what corporations did with the Fed's nearly-free money.
 
Did they invest in new productive capacity? No, they bought back their own stocks--trillions of dollars worth, to boost stock prices and managerial bonuses. Note what happened when the last stock buyback binge faded: stocks crashed.
 
 
The Fed's free money for financiers enriched the top layer of corporate management and the top 1% who own most of the nation's equities. You can read the details here: Factset Buyback Quarterly.
 
 
The other group of financiers with access to the Fed's free money for financiers has been private equity. So did the private equity multi-millionaires borrow the Fed's largesse to build new plant and hire new employees? Did they invest the borrowed billions in productive startups?
 
No--they used the money to buy existing companies and bleed them dry. The Glory Days of Private Equity Are


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Almost $3 Trillion Of European Debt Has Negative Rates As German Yields Collapse Further

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As German yields hit fresh record lows (and continue to collapse/flatten dramatically) amid Draghi’s monetary excess, the size of ineligible debt surges across Europe. As SocGen notes, before today, there was already a stunning EUR 2.17 trillion of negative yielding debt in Europe (dominated by Germany and France) and today’s moves mean that number is growing rapidly as Germany is now negative to a 7.5 year maturity.

Since Q€ the curve has collapsed…

leaving at least EUR 2.2 Trillion of negative-yielding debt across Europe…

This won’t end well…

Charts: Bloomberg and SocGen





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

The Iran "Talks" - Just Another US vs Russia (And China) Power Game

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update, and just as expected: IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATORS MAY MISS 3RD DEADLINE: U.S. OFFICIAL

In what has been the world's longest negotiation (we are only modestly joking: the Iran P5+1 nuclear "talks" started in 2013 and have yet to achieve anything) one whose "rolling deadline" has been breached time and time again, it appears that with today's latest deadline just hours away, the most likely outcome is another deadline extension even though, as Reuters puts it, "Iran and six world powers ramped up the pace on Tuesday in negotiations over a preliminary deal on Tehran's nuclear program, while officials cautioned that any agreement would likely be fragi...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.Date Found: Saturday, 14 February 2015, 02:19:38 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Robert Shiller who got the dot-com and housing bubbles right says bonds are next and that’s your gold price spike. www.cnbc.com/...

Date Found: Saturday, 14 February 2015, 02:53:52 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Bill Fleckenstein: Still Not Time to Short the Market - Wait for QE4 - Bill comments that we could easily see another 15-20% correction in the market but that the Fed will either hint at or, more likely, launch Q...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Defensive sectors lead hesitant market, but traders honor long-standing bullish support

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week, the major indexes fell back below round-number thresholds that had taken a lot of effort to eclipse. There has been an ongoing ebb-and-flow of capital between risk-on and risk-off, including high sector correlations, which is far from ideal. But at the end of it all, the S&P 500 found itself right back on top of long-standing support and poised for a bounce, and Monday’s action proved yet again that bulls are determined to defend their long-standing uptrend line.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enh...



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Phil's Favorites

Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Courtesy of Mish.

Yet another central bank has announced a warning about the perils of deflation. Please consider China Central Bank Calls for Vigilance on Deflation.

China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned on Sunday that the country needs to be vigilant for signs of deflation and said policymakers were closely watching slowing global economic growth and declining commodity prices.

Zhou's comments are likely to add to concerns that China is in danger of slipping into deflation and underline increasing nervousness among policymakers as the eco...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Federal Agents Investigating Bitcoin Money Laundering Stole Over $1 Million In Bitcoin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

This is one of those sad times when The Onion realizes it has badly, and permanently, missed its IPO window.

Just released from the Department of Justice

Former Federal Agents Charged With Bitcoin Money Laundering and Wire Fraud

Agents Were Part of Baltimore’s Silk Road Task Force

Two former federal agents have been charged with wire fraud, money laundering and related offenses for stealing digital currency during their investigation of the Silk Road, an underground black market that al...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 30th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.

...



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Option Review

Cypress Semi Draws Bullish Option Plays

Bullish trades abound in Cypress Semiconductor options today, most notably a massive bull call spread initiated in the July expiry contracts. One strategist appears to have purchased 30,000 of the Jul 16.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.89 each and sold the same number of Jul 19.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.22 apiece. Net premium paid to put on the spread amounts to $0.67 per contract, thus establishing a breakeven share price of $16.67 on the trade. Cypress shares reached a 52-week high of $16.25 back on Friday, March 13th, and would need to rally 4.6% over the current level to exceed the breakeven point of $16.25. The spread generates maximum potential profits of $2.33 per contract in the event that CY shares surge more than 20% in the next four months to reach $19.00 by July expiration. Shar...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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