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Hilsenrath Hits The Tape: Ignore Everything I Said Two Weeks Ago

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The last time the WSJ’ Jon Hilsenrath was relevant was two weeks ago (in a flashback to those days before QEternity when infinite QE was not assured and Jon’s input was actually relevant), when following an article of his, and due to his “proximity” with the New York Fed, many assumed that the Tapering suggested by Hilsenrath was being telegraphed by Bernanke to the market. Turns out it was nothing but yet another baffle with bullshit headfake by a central planning regime that is now merely engaged in observing market responses to indirect stimuli: if reduce monthly flow by $20 billion then X (-1%); if cut QE off entirely then Y (-50%?), and so on. Moments ago the same Hilsenrath just released another piece, which effectively refuted everything his previous piece suggested, and in fact made his position as Fed mouthpiece absolutely irrelevant, courtesy of the following disclosure: “this time, when the Fed shuts off bond buying, it won’t be… predictable.” He goes so far as to say that the term “tapering” is no longer even applicable! Funny that, considering on May 11, none other than Hilsenrath said: “Federal Reserve officials have mapped out a strategy for winding down an unprecedented $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program meant to spur the economy.”

The irony here is that Hilsenrath is correct, but for another far simpler reason: the Fed simply can not shut down bond buying, at least not voluntarily, without crashing bond the stock market, and the perception that the economy is doing well (it isn’t), just because the S&P hits new all time highs day after day.

The Fed will of course “shut down” bond buying when like in the summer of 2008 simple inflation is raging in commodities, and when a bank has to be sacrificed to induce a deflationary vortex. However, for now thanks to the epic planning in keeping the Brent vigilantes largely in check (now that the Bond vigilatnes are long dead), and since the market has a few more thousand points higher to go before everyone has no choice but to acknowledge how ridiculous the asset bubble has become, there is, to paraphrase Tim Geithner, “no risk.”

From the WSJ:

When the Fed ended a buying program in


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Swedish Youth Riots Enter Third Day

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Sparked by the police shooting of a machete-wielding 69 year-old man, traditionally calm-and-collected Sweden is suffering amid its third night of riots. It seems underlying tensions from high youth unemployment and rising nationalism against the nation’s large immigrant population have been catalyzed by this seemingly unrelated event. As the Daily Mail notes, immigrant ghettos have been created where unemployment is high and there are few opportunities for residents with left-leaning commenters adding that the riots represented a ‘gigantic failure’ of government policies, which had underpinned the rise of ghettos in the suburbs – “We have failed to give many of the people in the suburbs a hope for the future.” An anti-immigrant party, the Sweden Democrats, has risen to third in polls ahead of a general election due next year, reflecting unease about immigrants among many voters. What is driving this tension? After decades of practicing the ‘Swedish model’ of generous welfare benefits, the country has been reducing the role of the state since the 1990s, spurring the fastest growth in inequality of any advanced OECD economy. Given Sweden’s 24.7% youth unemployment, we wonder just what will happen to the 60% of unemployed youths in Greece and Spain when school lets out this summer?

 



 

 

Brief clip below provides more color…

 

This can’t end well!

 

Via The Daily Mail:

The disorder has intensified despite a call for calm from Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt.

 

Last night, rioters attacked the police station in the Jakosberg area in the northwest of the city and set fire to 30 cars.

 

 

Groups of youths also smashed shop windows and burned down a 19th Century cultural centre.

 

Gangs of up to 60 set fire to a school and a nursery and hurled rocks at police and firefighters.

 

 

While average living standards are still among the highest in Europe, governments have failed to substantially reduce long-term youth unemployment and poverty, which have affected immigrant communities worst.

 

Some 15 per cent of the population is foreign-born, the highest proportion in the Nordic region.

 

 

Among 44 industrialized countries, Sweden ranked fourth in the absolute number of asylum seekers, and second relative to its


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Microsoft To Hire Thousands… In China

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Perhaps the best answer to the question posed to Bernanke moments ago whether US unemployment is structural or cyclical comes courtesy of Microsoft, which announced earlier that it was set to hire “several thousand” workers. Sadly, the catch is that the hires will be in China.

From BusinessWeek:

Microsoft the largest software maker, will hire several thousand workers in China to support new cloud computing services and smartphones using its Windows operating system, Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer said.

 

The workforce (MSFT) expansion, from a current base of 4,000 staff, will take place during the next year, Ballmer said today at a press conference in Shanghai that was streamed live on the Internet. He didn’t provide a specific number for new workers.

 

China has become the fastest growing market (MSFT) for the company’s smartphone operating system, Ballmer said. The Redmond, Washington-based company will start a public preview of its Windows Azure service in the country next month, making Microsoft the first multinational to offer public cloud computing in the nation.

 

“I visited China last about one year ago in May and it is remarkable to me how much has changed,” Ballmer, 57, said. “At Microsoft this is an incredibly exciting time.”

For future Chinese employees of Microsoft it is a quite exciting time too. For those Americans who will not be hired by Microsoft as a result of this decision, it is not nearly as exciting. But at least those unhired workers can take solace that their E*trade daytrading P&L is green for the day.





Bernanke “No Tapering”; Silver Goes Up and Down Again

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Monetary Metals.

In February, I wrote What Drives the Price of Gold and Silver?

 

If there is a credible rumor that the Fed is planning to further extend its “Quantitative Easing”, how would you expect the monetary metals to react? Typically, the gold price would rise and the silver price would rise even more. The question is why.

Traders read the headlines and they know how the price “should” react to such news, and they begin buying. For a while, the prophecy fulfills itself. But then what happens next? It may take an hour or a month, but sooner or later some of the new buyers begin to sell.

Most people accept the Quantity Theory of Money. In brief, if the money supply rises then prices will rise (though often there is a caveat that not all prices will rise uniformly).

Today, Fed Chairman Bernanke said that the ongoing increases in the quantity of dollars will continue. The silver market reacted as it “should”: more money = higher silver prices. Look at this annotated chart.

Bernanke Silver

In about 15 minutes, the silver price rose 2.2%. I call this the “Quantity Theory of Money Gap”. In about 15 minutes more, the price fell back to where it had been.

Within 30 minutes, all those who had bought based on this idea were, if not proven wrong, at least given losses by the market.

The price of the dollar as measured in gold or silver is collapsing and the rate of collapse will accelerate. This will be reflected in much higher prices of gold and silver when quoted in dollars. But it is not due to the quantity of money, and certainly not due to talk of the quantity of money.





China Platinum Imports Rise – Bullish Platinum and Palladium Fundamentals

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by GoldCore.

 

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,385.25, EUR 1,071.43 and GBP 917.75 per ounce.  
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,378.75, EUR 1,070.21 and GBP 908.39 per ounce. 

Gold fell $6.50 or 0.47% yesterday to $1,377.80/oz and silver finished down 0.56%. Click here to download our free guide to gold.

The fundamentals of the platinum and palladium markets are beginning to receive market attention and not before time. The positive supply demand dynamics are leading to increased investment demand as seen in the ETF data and Chinese demand rising again due to both industrial and jewellery demand.


Source: Bloomberg, China Customs General Administration – (UBS
)

Net platinum imports into China jumped to 8.9 metric tonnes last month, marking the strongest inflow in about a year according to UBS. 

This reflected a 14% increase from March, and year-on-year growth of 29%. The trade data coincides with strong platinum volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), which coincidentally also totalled 8.9 tonnes for the whole month of April, the strongest turnover since September 2011. The fall in prices towards $1,400/oz prompted a pick-up in physical buying. 

Jewellery demand was cited by UBS as the main source of the physical buying.  

While gold is still the more popular precious metal in China, platinum jewellery has also enjoyed an improvement in demand. Johnson Matthey estimates a 14% increase in net global platinum jewellery offtake last year, with China accounting for a large portion of the increase. The expansion in the number of retail outlets across second and third tier cities in China has contributed to the growth in platinum jewellery demand. 

Although platinum’s discount to gold in 2012 did not necessarily translate into relatively cheaper platinum jewellery at a retail level, better margins would have encouraged sellers to exert more effort in promoting platinum. The surge in China’s platinum imports and increased SGE activity in April is a reflection of the physical demand response to the price drop, similar to that seen in gold.


Avg Known ETF Platinum Holdings – (Bloomberg)

Investment demand is likely to have received a boost from the announcement in March that Russia and South Africa, which together control about 80% of the world’s reserves of platinum group metals, plan to create a trading bloc similar to OPEC to control the flow of…
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Euphoria Cracks As Ben Drops Hint Of Tapering After All

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

MOAR Orderly… oops… Bernanke: “Fed could reduce bond purchases in the next few meetings if data supports it” and perhaps most disturbing is that reality is finally seeping into the corner offices of the Marriner Eccles building when Bernanke says that concerns about “frothiness” and “bubbles” has increased? Was it the sub-5% yield in high yield that tipped them off?

 





Central Banking’s Split Personality Can’t Go On

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Pivotfarm.

Central Banking’s Split Personality Can’t Go On

Central bankers have spent the past five years expanding their balance sheets to unprecedented degrees. Now they have modest (at best) growth, but an enormous monetary base. Some want to do more but others are worried about how hard it will be to normalize policy. Nowhere is this split more apparent than in the Bank of England, although there are signs of the same at the Federal Reserve and even the Bank of Japan. Once again the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 against providing more quantitative easing to the economy, with outgoing governor Mervyn King on the losing side.

http://www.financialjuice.com/News/109287/Central-Bankings-Split-Personality-Cant-Go-On.aspx

Canada’s Bond-Dumping Frenzy Escalates as Pensions Unload

Canada’s biggest pension-fund manager will “significantly” cut its C$64 billion ($62.3 billion) allocation to bonds as the fixed-income market’s foothold among its most loyal base of investors grows less certain.

http://www.financialjuice.com/News/109279/Canadas-Bond-Dumping-Frenzy-Es…

EUR/USD Most Vulnerable Pair Ahead of Bernanke, FOMC Minutes

Most currencies have fallen against the dollar towards the testimony of Ben Bernanke in Washington and the release of the recent FOMC meeting minutes. Some had good reasons to fall and some didn’t have specific ones.

http://www.financialjuice.com/News/109278/EURUSD-Most-Vulnerable-Pair-Ah…

Schaeuble: EU must accelerate fighting youth unemployment

Cutting unemployment decisive for EU legitimacy German bilateral programs compliment EU efforts Schaeuble is speaking in Berlin.

http://www.financialjuice.com/News/109277/Schaeuble-EU-must-accelerate-f…

Lehman Brothers Holding raises $1.88 bln selling broker claims

Lehman Brothers Holding Inc, the former investment bank that is working to repay creditors, said on Wednesday it had raised $1.88 billion by selling claims it held against its former brokerage.

http://www.financialjuice.com/News/109266/Lehman-Brothers-Holding-raises…

Bernanke expected to stay the course on Fed policy

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is not expected to hint at a pending policy change when he testifies before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday despite some speculation among investors that the central bank could soon reduce its massive bond buying program

http://www.financialjuice.com/News/109264/Bernanke-expected-to-stay-the-…

Credit rating firms sow doubt on euro zone bond rally

Credit rating firms say they could further downgrade the ratings of highly indebted euro zone countries, putting their bonds at risk of being pitched out of global indexes and reversing a fall in their borrowing costs.

http://www.financialjuice.com/News/109237/Credit-rating-firms-sow-doubt-…

US Existing Home Sales 4.97 within expectations.

The annual level of US existing homes sales was expected to rise to 4.99 million. This is a rise…
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Market Reacts As Bernanke Promises “MOAR”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

‘Orderly’…





Will He Or Won’t He? Bernanke’s ‘State Of The Economy’ Testimony – Live Webcast

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: Bubbles Bernanke slams any hopes for tapering goodbye, as long predicted: PREMATURE TIGHTENING RISKS SLOWING OR ENDING RECOVERY

Bernanke’s quarterly hearing with the Joint Economic Committee this morning will be today’s must-see event (with FOMC minutes a close second). It seems the equity market has no fears but many in the high-yield market are anxious for the words ‘frothy’, ‘taper’, ‘bubble’, ‘clueless’, and ‘I plead da fif’.  While Bernanke’s words will be the most important, these hearings typically include their fair share of ironic ignorant ‘humor’ from the politicians who sit in awe of the most powerful man in the world and his CTRL+P prowess.

 

Speech highlights:

  • BERNANKE: PREMATURE TIGHTENING RISKS SLOWING OR ENDING RECOVERY
  • BERNANKE REPEATS POLICY TO STAY ACCOMMODATIVE AS LONG AS NEEDED
  • BERNANKE SAYS MONETARY POLICY PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT BENEFITS
  • BERNANKE SAYS POLICY CAN’T FULLY OFFSET FISCAL DRAG ON ECONOMY
  • BERNANKE: HIGH RATES OF UNEMPLOYMENT `EXTRAORDINARILY COSTLY’

Full speech:

 

The real Iron man:





“No Tapering” – Bernanke’s ‘State Of The Economy’ Testimony – Live Webcast

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: Bubbles Bernanke slams any hopes for tapering goodbye, as long predicted: PREMATURE TIGHTENING RISKS SLOWING OR ENDING RECOVERY

Bernanke’s quarterly hearing with the Joint Economic Committee this morning will be today’s must-see event (with FOMC minutes a close second). It seems the equity market has no fears but many in the high-yield market are anxious for the words ‘frothy’, ‘taper’, ‘bubble’, ‘clueless’, and ‘I plead da fif’.  While Bernanke’s words will be the most important, these hearings typically include their fair share of ironic ignorant ‘humor’ from the politicians who sit in awe of the most powerful man in the world and his CTRL+P prowess.

 

Speech highlights:

  • BERNANKE: PREMATURE TIGHTENING RISKS SLOWING OR ENDING RECOVERY
  • BERNANKE REPEATS POLICY TO STAY ACCOMMODATIVE AS LONG AS NEEDED
  • BERNANKE SAYS MONETARY POLICY PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT BENEFITS
  • BERNANKE SAYS POLICY CAN’T FULLY OFFSET FISCAL DRAG ON ECONOMY
  • BERNANKE: HIGH RATES OF UNEMPLOYMENT `EXTRAORDINARILY COSTLY’

Full speech:

 

The real Iron man:





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Tim Cook's Improbable Victory In Washington

Lawmakers questioned Apple's CEO Tim Cook on tax matters yesterday. Felix Salmon explains the details of the complicated tax scheme involving subsidiaries in Ireland and various contractual relationships that are legal but devised to lower the corporations' taxes.

And well, why not? Since when do corporations live to maximize taxes and minimize profits? What CEO would survive that sort of behavior?

Apple's method of avoiding US taxes is a good argument for eliminating corporate taxes altogether. What do you think?

Tim Cook's Improbable Victory In Washington

By Felix Salmon

When...



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Zero Hedge

Hilsenrath Hits The Tape: Ignore Everything I Said Two Weeks Ago

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The last time the WSJ' Jon Hilsenrath was relevant was two weeks ago (in a flashback to those days before QEternity when infinite QE was not assured and Jon's input was actually relevant), when following an article of his, and due to his "proximity" with the New York Fed, many assumed that the Tapering suggested by Hilsenrath was being telegraphed by Bernanke to the market. Turns out it was nothing but yet another baffle with bullshit headfake by a central planning regime that is now merely engaged in observing market responses to indirect stimuli: if reduce monthly flow by $20 billion then X (-1%); if cut QE off entirely then Y (-50%?), and so on. Moments ago the same Hilsenrath just released ano...



more from Tyler

Market Montage

History Being Made

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

One runs out of superlatives to describe the current market.

Every day or week a new record seems to be set.   A few of the current – yesterday was the 19th Tuesday in a row that the DJIA was up; the DJIA is now guaranteed to go without a 3 day losing streak for 100 days, breaking the 95 day record in 1927, the NASDAQ has had 17 days in a row of a new higher high, the best since Nov 1999, etc etc.  Meanwhile Japan is in the realm of 50% YTD gains as their currency is kicked in the teeth.

Definitely an era to keep in our memory banks as the action is abnormal.

Mr. Dudley (NY Fed) spoke yesterday and soun...



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Chart School

Today’s Dow Now in Third Place

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is the latest look at the "Sweet Sixteen" Dow recoveries adjusted for inflation/deflation I've been illustrating from time to time over the past three years. The charts below compare the current Dow recovery since the March 2009 low with fifteen other major recoveries dating from the origin of this legendary index in 1896. (See the footnote for my selection criteria.)

At this point the Dow is 1058 market days beyond the 2009 low. The last time I checked, in early April, the index was in fourth place in our Sweet Sixteen competition and 11.5% below the recovery from the 1982 low over the equivalent time frame. Now, 30 sessions later, the current level has a nominal gain of 135.0% since the 2009 trough, and is currently at a new all-time high. However, since we're comparing such a diverse set of market eras with such a wide patterns of inflation/deflati...



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Insider Scoop

Intuit Earnings Beat Estimates; Company Updates Full-Year Guidance

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) released its fiscal third-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday.

The company reported revenues which were in-line with expectations and a profit which beat analysts' estimates. In late trade, shares were up a little less than one percent to $58.31.

The company reported net income of $822 million or $2.71 per share, compared to $734 million or $2.42 per share, in the year ago period.

On an adjusted basis, net income rose to $901 million or $2.97 per share, versus $763 million or $2.52 per share, in last year's third-quarter. This came in ahead of Wall S...



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Option Review

Pre-Earnings Bullish Bets On Saks Pay Off As Retailer Rallies

 

Today’s tickers: SKS, HLF & ABFS

SKS - Saks, Inc. – High-end retailer, Saks, Inc., popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning on heavier than usual trading traffic in upside calls. Shares in Saks are up 10% on Tuesday morning at a new 52-week high of $13.54 after the company posted first-quarter earnings in line with analyst expectations on higher-than-expected quarterly revenue. Shares in Saks are up more than 30% since this time last year. Bullish positions initiated in SKS options ahead of the earnings release yester...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

What the Market Wants: No Easy Answer

Courtesy of David Brown, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

So, what did the market want today?  Nothing it appears.  It traded on weak volume and had very little movement.  This morning the market hated commodities especially silver, but by days end, the market liked silver, gold and even oil but not the dollar.  Why?

Last week the economic reports were tough, with bad misses on more than one occasion.  But the market tended to ignore the bad news, probably because money continues to pour into equities from money market funds, long term fixed income, and many struggling foreign economies.  On Thursday, investors finally caved to even more bad news from Initial Jobless Claims and weak Housing Starts.  Then on Friday, when Michigan Sentiment and Leading Indicators posted large positive surprises, the money came pouring back to generate qui...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 20th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

NEW: Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly! Just sign in with your PSW user name and password, or sign up to try it out. 

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

The IRA portfolio

Reminder: Craigzooka is available to chat with Members regarding his virtual portfolio performance, comments are found below each post.

By Craigzooka

I am going to share with you how I manage my IRA and the power of reducing your cost basis.  My goal each year is a 20% return in my IRA.  Sometimes I make it and sometimes I don't, but I believe that all of my success is due to reducing my cost basis.  To illustrate the power of reducing your cost basis here are some trades we did last year.  These trades are taken from an educational portfolio we ran in a paper-trading account for a little more than a year.

  • We bought RIG on 5/15/2012 for $44.13, sold it on 1/18/2013 for $46 but booked a profit of $1,154.
  • We bought MT on 1/4/2012 for $19.24, sold it on 12/21/2012 for $15 but booked a profit of $454.
  • We bought CHK on 1/27/2012 for $21.93, sold it on 10/19/2012 for $18 b...


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ETF Selector

Stock Market Gets Big News After Friday’s Close

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Stock market posts another record setting week, but the big news came after Friday’s close.

Courtesy of NASA

The stock market put on another record setting show with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) closing at a record high 15,118 and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) closing at 1633.70, another all time closing high.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 1%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) climbed 1.2%, the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:...



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Pharmboy

Give Them an Inch, They Will Take a Mile

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well, well, well....it is good to know that there are others in the scientific arena who believed that YMI Bioscience's data (cough - Gilead) is a better drug than Incyte's Jakafi.  Now, the definitive data are still unknown, but there was enough evidence from a Phase 2 trial to take a small risk for a huge reward.  So, let's forget about Apple (AAPL), and do nothing but biotechs from now until Congress passes universal health care coverage for prescriptions....and drive the prices down so that research and development is no longer feasible to conduct in the US. Even Seattle Genetics (SGEN) has been on a tear as of late...



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