by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 10:10 pm
The following shocking clip of George Soros mumbling through an interview with a Bloomberg reporter shows him admitting that:
“it’s all going to lead to a landslide victory for Donald Trump… in the popular vote…. not in the electoral vote because there paid political elements/announcers will have a big role and so the electoral vote will be closer…”
Was it a slip of the tongue by a boasting billionaire to a pretty blonde television reporter? We will never know what he was stumbling to say, but from the words he did mumble, it is clear that the deep state is very much in play and knows exactly how they have planned this to end.
* * *
As Bill Still notes, what word is he trying to pull up? I think he starts to say “paid political elements”.
Perhaps he means that there will be massive paid political advertisements? Or could he be talking about his voting machines rigging the elections? Incidentally, according to a Daily Caller story from last week: “Smartmatic, a U.K.-based voting technology company with deep ties to George Soros, has provided voting technology in 16 states including battleground zones like Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Other jurisdictions affected are California, District of Columbia, Illinois, Louisiana, Missouri, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin.”
Or is he talking about outright bribery of the voting members of the electoral college itself?
According to Archives.gov: “There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their states. Some states, however, require Electors to cast their votes according to the popular vote. The U.S. Supreme Court has held that the Constitution does not require that Electors be completely free to act as they choose and therefore, political parties may extract pledges from electors to vote for the parties’ nominees… The Supreme Court has not specifically ruled on the question of whether pledges and penalties for failure to vote as pledged may be enforced under the Constitution. No Elector has ever been prosecuted for failing to vote as pledged.”
In fact, only 29 states require Electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote. But fortunately several are
by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 9:48 pm
While the rest of the world is devolving into proxy, or even outright warfare, one nation is profiting handsomely. Germany’s ammunition exports skyrocketed in the first half of 2016, a leaked report has revealed according to Germany’s Deutsche Welle. And ironically Turkey, a country whose political relationship with Germany has deteriorated sharply over the past year – if only for popular consumption – and is currently suppressing its political opposition, has moved up the list of the country’s best customers.
As DW reports, the German government has allowed the country’s gun-makers to sell even more ammunition around the world in the first half of 2016, according to an arms export report leaked to the DPA news agency and due to be discussed in a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. The sales of small arms themselves have fallen slightly, from 12.4 million euros ($13.5 million) to 11.6 million euros, but the approved ammunition sales rose from 27 million euros to 283.8 million euros.
This broke down into 275 million euros worth of sales to EU, NATO, and NATO-allied countries (Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Switzerland) as well as some 5.4 million euros to Iraq. The three biggest single customers were France, Poland, and Iraq, where Germany is supporting the Kurdish fighters in their battle against “Islamic State.”
Think of it as a razor-razorblade model, just far more deadly.
Sebastian Schulte, defence analyst and Germany correspondent for military magazine “Jane’s Defense Weekly,” said the increase in ammunition was not particularly surprising, given the intensification of the battles in Syria and northern Iraq. “The coalition is at the gates of Mosul, they’re going through a lot of ammunition, and Germany has decided to support the coalition – notably the Kurds,” he told DW. “You can go through several barrels of ammo for a machine gun in a day. That is quite normal.”
Not only that, Germany is probably also sending a lot of ammunition to Turkey, he speculates: “And as you know, Turkey is also highly involved both in Syria and in anti-IS operations.” As Schulte explained, Germany’s assault rifle ammunition is designed to be used in several different guns across NATO armies – though not in older guns like the Soviet-designed Kalashnikov or the 1960s era German machine gun, the G3.
What Schulte did not comment
by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 9:20 pm
I’m going to explain the Donald Trump phenomenon in three movies. And then some text.
There’s this universal shorthand that epic adventure movies use to tell the good guys from the bad. The good guys are simple folk from the countryside …
… while the bad guys are decadent assholes who live in the city and wear stupid clothes:
In Star Wars, Luke is a farm boy …
… while the bad guys live in a shiny space station:
In Braveheart, the main character (Dennis Braveheart) is a simple farmer …
… and the dastardly Prince Shithead lives in a luxurious castle and wears fancy, foppish clothes:
The theme expresses itself in several ways — primitive vs. advanced, tough vs. delicate, masculine vs. feminine, poor vs. rich, pure vs. decadent, traditional vs. weird. All of it is code for rural vs. urban. That tense divide between the two doesn’t exist because of these movies, obviously. These movies used it as shorthand because the divide already existed.
We country folk are programmed to hate the prissy elites.
* * *
That brings us to Trump…Here are six reasons for the rise of Trump that no one is taking about
1. It’s Not About Red And Blue States — It’s About The Country Vs. The City
I was born and raised in Trump country. My family are Trump people. If I hadn’t moved away and gotten this ridiculous job, I’d be voting for him. I know I would.
See, political types talk about “red states” and “blue states” (where red = Republican/conservative and blue = Democrat/progressive), but forget about states. If you want to understand the Trump phenomenon, dig up the much more detailed county map. Here’s how the nation voted county by county in the 2012 election — again, red is Republican:
Holy cockslaps, that makes it look like Obama’s blue party is some kind of fringe political faction that struggles to get 20 percent of the vote. The blue parts, however, are more densely populated — they’re the cities. In the upper left, you see the blue Seattle/Tacoma area, lower down is San Francisco and then L.A. The blue around the dick-shaped
by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 9:00 pm
With over-subscribed new issuance the new normal in this ‘reach for any yield’ world, perhaps the rapid demise of Mozambique will remind some greater fools that ‘high’ yields are high for a reason.
As we warned 4 months ago, Mozambique has a broad swath of problems within its governing councils. Back in December of 2005, Management Systems International based out of Washington issued a report titled CORRUPTION ASSESSMENT: MOZAMBIQUE which said point blank: “The scale and scope of corruption in Mozambique are cause for alarm”.
Mozambique’s head of state Joaquim Chissano left office in February 2005 after 15 years. His replacement, Armando Guebza, that same year opened Mozambique’s coastline to international companies seeking to search for resources. Between 2005 and 2006 three firms were able to capture rights to explore the coast, Anadarko, Italy’s Eni, and Petronas. Some 75 trillion cubic feet of natural gas was discovered and this set of a a blitz into Mozambique as international banks, corporations, and organizations flooded the area. This opened a breeding ground for corruption and unregulated financing, specifically the controversial Tuna Bond that was supposed to be used to support regional fishing and was instead used for military expenditures and to purchase some 40 boats that remain anchored to this day.
Since then, the New Metical has crashed hyperinflation-like to record lows against the dollar…
In June, The IMF blamed “undisclosed loans” for Mozambique’s sudden surge to 86% Debt/GDP ratio.
“Mozambique’s economic growth will likely slow to 4.5 percent in 2016 from 6.6 percent the previous year due to rapidly rising inflation and growing government debt, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday. The leader of a Fund team that visited the southern African country, Michel Lazare, said the discovery of more than $1 billion of previously undisclosed government debt would increase pressure on the economy.”
Which seemed to spark dip-buying in the bonds…until today (as Bloomberg reports)
Mozambique is in “debt distress,” according to the International Monetary Fund’s criteria, and plans to start talks with creditors in coming days.
The southern African nation has appointed Lazard Freres SAS and White & Case to “engage in a constructive dialogue with creditors,” it said in a
by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 8:35 pm
As fighting resumes in Aleppo following a brief ceasefire – and as Russia’s largest naval fleet to sail since the Cold War steams down the English Channel on its way to the western coast of Syria – it’s important, in times when most of the focus is being drawn to one point, to step back and look at the whole board.
Yes, what’s happening in Aleppo is a tragedy. Civilians, women, and children are being blasted out of existence as two superpowers back opposing sides in a proxy war for regional dominance. Yes, as the Russian fleet nears the Mediterranean Sea, tensions will undoubtedly escalate for a number of nations with ties to the Syrian conflict.
But President Vladimir Putin’s moves regarding Aleppo are far from his only ones worth noting of late.
Take Turkey, for instance. Last week, Underground Reporter posited the idea that Turkey, due to its deteriorating relations with the United States and its strengthening cooperation with Russia, has, in effect, become the military wild card in the Middle East. Cited as evidence of deepening Russian-Turkish ties was the fact that the two countries have just signed a deal to build a pipeline from Turkey to Ukraine, which would then supply natural gas to Europe.
Turkey, which is north of Syria, shares much of its southern and all of its eastern border with the Mediterranean Sea. A good portion of Syria’s western border also runs into the Mediterranean, and it’s in those waters where Russian vessels, already hovering there, await the arrival of the aircraft carrier-led fleet now pushing through the English Channel.
All this fits nicely into a narrative that only focuses on what’s happening in Aleppo. But one need only glance at a map to see, using nothing but the eyes and common sense, just how much more is actually taking place right now.
In mid-October, it was reported that, for the first time ever, Russia and Egypt would conduct joint military drills. This followed news that Russia will sell attack helicopters to the North African nation and invest billions in Egyptian infrastructure. These items, along with the fact that Egypt is eager to be re-granted Russian
by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 8:08 pm
Earlier this month we reported, using TrimTabs data, that perhaps as a result of ballooning corporate debt the value of stock buyback announcements from U.S. companies had slowed to its lowest level in nearly five years, dropping to a fresh nine quarter low, with TrimTabs adding that this potentially joepardized one of the main drivers of the rising stock market. The company calculated that buybacks rebounded to $59.9 billion in September from a 3½-year low of $21.5 billion in August, but two-thirds of last month’s volume was due to a single buyback by Microsoft. The 39 buybacks rolled out last month was the lowest number in a month since January 2011.
Then, in a new report released today, TrimTabs analyzed buying patterns by corporate insiders and found insider buying was “almost non-existent in October.” Looking at Form 4 filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, TrimTabs reveals that insider buying has dropped to just $110 million in October through Friday, October 21. This was the lowest monthly total going back to 2011.
“The best-informed market participants seem unenthusiastic about U.S. stocks at current prices,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer at TrimTabs. “Insider buying is running at the slowest pace for October in the past five years.”
In a research note, TrimTabs explained that the weakness in buying is not just seasonal. On the first 15 trading days of October, insider buying was $390 million in 2012, $360 million in 2013, $540 million in 2014, and $260 million in 2015.
TrimTabs added that as insider buying slumps, U.S. companies are also committing less cash to repurchase shares. Stock buyback announcements fell to a nine-quarter low of $115.0 billion in the third quarter, and they would have been much lower without a single $40 billion buyback for Microsoft. Buybacks have totaled just $8.2 billion this month through Friday, October 21.
“The pullback in buying by both insiders and companies isn’t an encouraging sign for U.S. equities,” said Santschi. “Corporate America seems to be battening down the hatches.”
Incidentally, the TrimTabs report confirms what Bank of America also reporter earlier today in its weekly institutional buying, or rather selling report, namely that in the last week, BofAML “clients were net sellers of US equities for the second week (-$0.4bn vs. -$0.9bn the prior week). Institutional
by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 7:52 pm
by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 7:43 pm
Below we present three entertaining vignettes from the latest weekly letter to investors by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management.
The first one explains how we have once again ended up “right back where we started“ but after a curious tanget: one where central bankers now believe they can “invert causation” and not only control the yield curve but stoke inflation by doing so.
“Right back where we started,” said the CIO, spinning, dizzy. “Twelve months ago we were talking about a December rate hike.” The Fed was intent on normalizing interest rates, and if the rest of the world struggled to adjust, so be it. “It was their experiment with raising real interest rates and they were telling us to expect four more hikes in 2016.”
Inflation had remained subdued ever since the 2008 crisis, but interest rates had remained lower still; leaving real interest rates negative. “Having witnessed the stock market meltdown in January, we all now know what happens when the Fed raises real interest rates while economic growth is anemic.”
But nevertheless, we’re right back at it, albeit with lower expectations for the pace of 2017 hikes. Of course the S&P 500 is now higher too; were it lower, we’d sooner see a burqa at a Trump rally than another 25bps from the Fed.
“Not only does the Fed want higher overnight rates, they want steeper yield curves too,” he explained. “Rosengren is telling people how he’d like the curve to ‘develop,’ as if it’s in the Fed’s control.”
He’s not alone. Kuroda wants the same, Europe too. “Policy makers everywhere have somehow convinced themselves that if they engineer higher longer-dated yields, then inflation expectations will rise too,” he explained. “They’re basically saying you can invert causation.”
And in today’s new reality, everything’s possible, so why not inverse causation too? You see, rising inflation expectations cause higher long-term yields, not the other way around.
“So now our central bankers will run a new experiment based on the theory which is obviously incorrect,” he said, whirling, laughing. “It’s like saying I wish I had a billion dollars, which I desperately do, and somehow a billion dollars just appeared in my bank account.”
The next anecdote explains why we
by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 7:20 pm
Rage is all the rage these days, but as Barclays notes, what appears less well understood is that this voter rebellion, “the Politics of Rage”, spans nearly all advanced economies, has been taking place for more than a decade, is unparalleled in modern history, and is deeply entrenched.
This is not just about Brexit or the US election; it is about a global political movement.
More troubling, from a market perspective, is that its roots may be misunderstood. Misperceptions in politics tend to lead to volatile surprises, such as Brexit, or to misdiagnoses and to policy mis-prescriptions that imply even worse outcomes for asset prices.
Policymakers have focused on income inequality as the primary driver of the Politics of Rage. Although we cannot reject the thesis, we find little support for it in the data. Others have focused on anti-globalisation movements as the main driver. Our analysis agrees, but in results that may surprise some; we find that it is neither the most important source of rage nor as economically irrational as some have suggested.
We find that a deeper cause is a perception among “ordinary citizens” that political and institutional “elites” do not accurately represent their preferences amid a growing cultural and economic divide. These frustrations appear to be validated, with many caveats, by the data: median earners in advanced economies seem to have been the relative losers of globalisation, both within their own countries and relative to their emerging market peers.
Voter anger may be analogous to the Greek hero Achilles’ terrible rage, not for having received less than King Agamemnon, but for the perceived injustice in the manner in which Agamemnon distributed the spoils of battle. Achilles’ wrath cost the Greeks – and ultimately Achilles – dearly, as the Politics of Rage may cost global output. But it was not because Achilles’ sense of justice was in error.
Our findings have mostly strategic implications for asset markets, but they are not happy. Our research seems to support the late Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington’s forecast of continued political upheaval and highlights the trilemma of incompatibility among democracy, sovereignty and globalisation postulated by the economist Dani Rodrik. The Politics of Rage has been around longer than many realise and likely will remain for the foreseeable future. Despite this long arc, our findings also are
by Zero Hedge - October 25th, 2016 6:55 pm
The biggest moves… the ones that make the MOST money in the markets are the ones no one is talking about for months.
With that in mind, you NEED to know that the Fed is going to let inflation run wild in the US.
That is not a hypothesis. In the last month we’ve had THREE different Fed officials state that they WANT inflation and that the Fed will let it run BEYOND the Fed’s target 2% rate.
First up was Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on October 11.
The U.S. Federal Reserve should engineer monetary policy to spur inflation to rise above its two-percent target because the costs of doing so are less than in past decades, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Tuesday.
Then came NY Fed President William Dudley on October 12.
“Inflation is a little below our target, rather than above our target, so I think we can be quite gentle as we go in terms of gradually removing monetary policy accommodation,” said Dudley, a close ally of Yellen and a permanent voter on policy.
Then came Fed Chair Janet Yellen stating on October 14th.
In a further indication that the Federal Reserve will be inclined to let inflation run hot for a while, Chair Janet Yellen on Friday said it’s useful to consider the benefits of a “high-pressure economy.”
That’s THREE different Fed officials all offering implicit reasons NOT to hike rates but to let inflation run wild.
Scratch that… make it FOUR Fed officials…
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday that a single U.S. interest rate rise would be all that was necessary for the time being, repeating comments he had made recently.
Folks, the Fed is LITERALLY broadcasting that it’s going to let a MAJOR monetary event happen.
Gold’s figured it out. It just put in a base and is about to go STRATOSPHERIC.
Over 99% of investors have missed this. They continue to focus on stocks. They’re missing a once in 30 years event that has begun in the metals markets.
HUGE money will be made from this trend going forward.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning a secret back-door