by Zero Hedge - May 21st, 2013 8:56 am
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
In a world in which everything is scientific and algorithmic, here is today’s calculation-based, and thus 100% accurate, prediction of where the S&P will close.
by Zero Hedge - May 21st, 2013 8:50 am
Submitted by Pivotfarm.
Why Inflation Never Came
A generation of economists and students of macroeconomics were taught that the Quantity Theory of Money described the relationship between money and prices in the economy. The primary equation for the Quantity Theory of money is:Where: is the total amount of money in circulation on average in an economy during the period, say a year.
Dollar firms before Bernanke, inflation dip hits sterling
The dollar firmed, gold fell and shares slipped off five-year highs on Tuesday as investors postioned for an update on the future of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stimulus programme.
Is Gold Oversold?
Pessimism on gold is so extreme that sometimes even the bears worry it might be overdone. Today the price jumped a little more than 1 percent after news hit the wires that was perceived to be bullish: Moody’s Investors Service reported that U.S. policymakers must do something about the government debt to avoid a rating downgrade this year.
Contrarians see today’s bearishness as a bullish sign, reasoning that once almost everyone who used to be a bull has become a bear, gold has nowhere left to go but up. That’s why they’re called contrarians.
Where has the smart money been buying the US Dollar?
A slow Monday in the currency market, with gentle yet consistent USD weakness the main theme. Despite the decline, it managed to maintain the very same levels of supply and demand from last week against main peers. These levels are likely to come into play as the trading week develops and risk events get released. Simplified Supply Demand Table The table below includes updated supply/demand levels as well as commentaries on the current outlook of the pair.
UK government believes it has the right economic approach
A spokesman for PM David Cameron was asked if the government would heed advice from the IMF over it’s economy. The IMF are due to release their annual UK economic report on Wednesday, which will which will no doubt be following the same line that IMF chief economist, Oliver Blanchard came out with in April where he criticised George Osborne’s strict austerity measures.
Sterling and Yen Aren’t Waiting for Tomorrow
by Zero Hedge - May 21st, 2013 8:49 am
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Submitted by Mark j. Grant, author of Out of the Box,
The 100% Prediction of a Reversal
A reversal will come. The odds on this are 100%. You cannot have every asset class on the planet in a bubble forever. The world does not operate this way. The disconnect between economic fundamentals and the markets continues but the odds on it continuing forever is Zero. Let us begin the postulate from here.
Corporations, banks, the housing market, borrowers and the securities markets have significantly benefited from the actions of the central banks. Money has been poured, dumped and shoved into the financial markets. The total exceeds $16 trillion to date and perhaps twice that amount if we were given accurate data to be able to count it. It was been a Tsunami of money.
Liquidity has buoyed the world as the central banks acted in concert and in a coordinated effort to provide fresh cash. The balance sheets enlarge but the money has not significantly helped anyone’s economy. Europe is in a recession, America is in a muddle and the world’s economies, without all of this money, would be in a sinkhole and so it continues. There is nothing else supporting the economies and the markets except the capital provided by the central banks.
The disparity is so large and so universal that something will break the bough as the weight eventually cannot be supported. When this happens it will be Katie bar the door. If you fall from ten feet you get hurt but if you fall from one thousand feet the consequences are quite different.
All of this is knowable but what is not knowable is what will cause the break. It could be the rise of nationalistic political parties in the U.K. or Germany. It could be social unrest, a major bank failure, a major hedge fund blowing up, some sovereign deciding to quit the Euro or a host of other possibilities. The odds on one item are minimal. The odds that a break will happen somewhere are 100%.
The creation of all of this money also has another effect. It causes stupidity. People and institutions rush around to invest their money but when there is too much easy money, such as right before our 2008/2009 debacle, really dumb things are done with money…
by Zero Hedge - May 21st, 2013 8:24 am
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
“Our positive 2013 outlook for S&P 500 has played out much faster than we expected.” That is how the latest equity update from Goldman Sachs, which until today had an S&P target of 1625 for the year end S&P, begins. And, logically, the only option for Goldman is to hike its outlook even more, because not even the Squid apparently could anticipate how quickly the policy it forced down the throats of central banks around the world, levitated markets to surpass its old price targets. The result is David Kostin (who until December had foreseen 1250 on the S&P for the end of 2012) and company were forced to goalseek even higher targets based on tried and true excel model fudging exercises, and such “value” creation as multiple expansion and dividend payments.
To wit: “Our earnings estimates remain unchanged but we raise our dividend estimates and index return forecasts for 2013 through 2015. We expect S&P 500 will rise by 5% to 1750 by year-end 2013, advance by 9% to 1900 in 2014, and climb by 10% to 2100 in 2015. Our 2013 return implies a year-end P/E of 15.0x, a one multiple point premium to our fair-value estimate. We forecast dividends will rise by 30% during next two years. Dividend yield is likely to stay around 2%, in line with the 20-year average.” For the record, Goldman had previously seen 1,900 in 2015. And now it sees another 200 points of value due to the magic of multiple expansion. That anyone can even pretend to forecast what happens three years into the future at a time when the central banks are injecting $160 billion (and soon $200 billion), and most likely will have to slowdown and halt such liquidity injection resulting in untold stock market carnage, is so beyond commentary we will leave it hanging for the ridiculous statement it is.
As for 2013, at least Goldman leave out any mention of 2013 consensys earnings… for good reason:
So in lieu of early Tuesday humor, here is how Goldman achieves its “target forecasts.” All we can conclude from this is that neither Tepper nor Goldman are anywhere near done selling to muppets.
by Zero Hedge - May 21st, 2013 7:48 am
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
- IMF Tells Central Europe to Spend More (WSJ)
- Tornadoes Blast Oklahoma (WSJ)
- Frenetic search for survivors as 91 feared dead in tornado-hit Oklahoma (Reuters)
- JPMorgan investors on edge over vote on Dimon; what if they win? (Reuters)
- Wealthy bank depositors to suffer losses in EU law (Reuters)
- Yen Slips as Amari Backtracks (BBG)
- Japan Ready for More Yen Weakness Despite Recent Comments (WSJ)
- IRS officials back on Capitol Hill hot seat over targeting (Reuters)
- Li Keqiang pledges China boost to India trade (FT)
- Europe’s Recession Sparks Grass-Roots Political Push (WSJ)
- Obama and Xi to meet in effort to calm growing US-China rivalry (FT)
- Berlin plans to streamline EU but avoid wholesale treaty change (FT)
- France must reform or face punitive measures – EU’s Oettinger (Reuters)
- Tumblr’s 26-Year-Old Founder Celebrates $1.1 Billion Deal (BBG)
- SocGen Joins UniCredit in Warsaw as Equity Sales Surge (BBG)
Overnight Media Digest
* JPMorgan Chase & Co is preparing for a shake up of its board even if every director wins re-election at Tuesday’s shareholder meeting and James Dimon keeps his dual job as chairman and chief executive.
* Even in the fast growing realms of the consumer Internet, some businesses are best served by old fashioned consolidation. GrubHub and Seamless, two nationwide startups used for ordering restaurant takeout by smartphone and computer, said they would merge. GrubHub Chief Executive Matt Maloney, who will lead the combined company, declined to discuss valuation.
* Here is a glimpse at the future of finance. When Deutsche Bank AG set out to win a role on Apple Inc’s $17 billion bond, it eschewed Wall Street’s traditional tactics. Instead of flying well-groomed bankers to Cupertino, California, to charm Apple’s top executives with powerpoint presentations, Deutsche relied on iTunes. The German bank has handled the back office work for Apple’s online store in recent years, according to people familiar with the situation.
* Aware that it needs China’s sweet tooth, Hershey Co is rolling out a Chinese brand designed for the world’s fastest growing candy market. In a first launch beyond the U.S. market, Hershey is unveiling on Tuesday a candy known in English as the Lancaster and in Chinese as Yo-man. Hershey will…
by Zero Hedge - May 21st, 2013 7:10 am
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Another event-free day in which the only major economic data point was the release of UK CPI, which joined the rest of the world in telegraphing price deflation, despite bubbles in the real estate and stock markets, printing 2.0% Y/Y on expectations of a 2.3% increase, the lowest since November 2009 and giving Mark Carney carte blanche to print as soon as he arrives on deck. In an amusing twist of European deja-vuness, last night Japan’s economy minister who made waves over the weekend when he said that the Yen has dropped low enough to where people’s lives may be getting complicated (i.e., inflation), refuted everything he said as having been lost in translation, and the result was a prompt move higher in the USDJPY, quickly filling the entire Sunday night gap. That said, and as has been made very clear in recent years, data is irrelevant, and the only thing that matters, at least so far in 2013, is whether it is Tuesday: the day that has seen 18 out of 18 consecutive rises in the DJIA so far in 2013, and whether there is a POMO scheduled. We are happy to answer yes to both, so sit back, and wait for the no-volume levitation to wash over ever. The US docket is empty except for Dudley and Bullard speaking, but more importantly, the fate of Jamie Dimon may be determined today when the vote on the Chairman/CEO title is due, while Tim Cook will testify in D.C. on the company’s tax strategy and overseas profits.
Perhaps the only chart that matters: the Dow with and without the impact of Tuesdays:
Key overnight highlights summarized in bulletin form courtesy of Bloomberg
- Treasuries steady, 10Y yields holding near highest since March as markets wait for Bernanke testimony and Fed minutes tomorrow amid speculation on QE tapering. JPY resumes decline vs USD while EUR/USD falls.
- Japan economy minister Amari, speaking to reporters in Tokyo, said he couldn’t say when correction from strong JPY will end, hopes exchange rate settles at level suited to Japan’s economic fundamentals
- China’s trade surplus is one-tenth the official $61b reported so far this year after accounting for fake transactions used to disguise hot-money inflows, Bank of America Corp. says
- Spain sold EU3.51b of bills vs. 3.5b target;
by Zero Hedge - May 21st, 2013 6:26 am
Submitted by smartknowledgeu.
Consider this blatant, and what I consider to be deliberate, deception of this UK Telegraph article, in which journalist Nick Squires reports that newly appointed Pope Francis blamed “free market capitalism” for the economic tyranny spreading across the globe today. Upon reading this, I thought to myself, “Well, we may have yet another religious leader with influence over millions that has no clue as to how the global banking system operates and consequently is going to mislead millions into adopting the belief that free-market capitalism (a market theory that is not practiced by any country in the world), and not the global banking system and bankers, are responsible for conditions of global economic misery.”
Whether you are religious or not, it is undeniable that the Pope’s public statements have an incredible amount of influence over people. However, religion aside, the key point I want to make is that people in extremely influential positions must be very careful to spread truth instead of falling victim to banker propaganda. In fact, Pope Francis’s purported statements sounded eerily similar to the disinformation favored by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who also blamed free markets and the lack of “regulation” for spreading global economic misery instead of the true source- fractional reserve banking and Central Banks.
However the truth to Greenspan’s massive banker propaganda is that the idea of a Central Bank, an authoritarian entity that centralizes the control of a nation’s credit and reports to no one but its owners, is 1 of the 10 major planks of Communism. Therefore, the very existence of a Central Bank means that no free markets can co-exist at the same time. Greenspan further deceived the people by blaming a lack of “regulation” as the central cause of our current global economic crisis, thereby implying that Central Banks should be granted more power to “regulate” the financial markets. However, most people that read Greenspan’s statements don’t understand that Central Banks never “regulate” capital markets, but only manipulate capital markets for their own benefit and to the detriment of the nation’s people. Only people that understand Greenspan’s propaganda understood that when he used the word “regulate”, one should…
by Zero Hedge - May 21st, 2013 3:10 am
Submitted by Monetary Metals.
Let’s take a look at a few graphs of the dollar, from Feb 1, 2013 through Friday May 17, 2013. Yes, I said graphs of the dollar. I’ve priced the dollar in gold first (of course), then silver, the euro, and even the yen. The pattern is obvious. The dollar is going up.
I did not show copper, lumber, or wheat though they show the same trend. These commodities are not money, of course.
My point is simple. It’s not gold that is going anywhere. In past articles, I’ve used the analogy of measuring a steel ruler using rubber bands. Using the dollar to measure gold is like that. In this article I show that it’s not just gold, but silver, other currencies, and commodities. The dollar is rising now matter how we measure it.
The question not to ask is: “how are they manipulating gold?” The question is: “why is the dollar rising?”
To answer that, we first have to understand why the dollar had been going down. Most would say that it’s because the Fed has been “printing” and increasing the quantity of dollars. If that is so, then why would the dollar ever rise, as it has before (e.g. in the 1980’s), and as it is doing now? The Fed cannot and does not “un-print” dollars. This stock explanation is not satisfactory.
In one word, the answer is: arbitrage.
Let’s take a step back and look at the Treasury bond. The government pays for net expenses above tax revenues by borrowing. To borrow money, the Department of the Treasury sells bonds. This is an important aspect of our current form of government, as voters have demanded far more government expenditures than they are willing or able to pay for via taxes. In this aspect, the Treasury bond is a tool of fiscal policy, or spending, and cash flow to pay for it.
There is another aspect to the Treasury bond. It is the key asset of our monetary system. It is the asset on the Fed’s balance sheet (increasingly, post 2008, there are also mortgage bonds) to back its liabilities. The liability of the Fed is the Federal Reserve Note, commonly called the dollar. The Treasury bond is also a significant backing for the liabilities of commercial banks,…
by Zero Hedge - May 21st, 2013 1:49 am
Submitted by EconMatters.
Markets & Manipulation: A long History
Most markets these days are manipulated to some extent, and this is nothing new if we look back through the history of financial markets. But there are some strange things happening right now in the oil market worth mentioning.
Computer Pegging Algo
For the first time ever in the history of the oil market the June and July WTI Futures contracts the last 2 days have had the exact same price tick for tick. The June contract is rolling over on Tuesday, but normally the front month and rollover month have different prices, a typical spread would be in the range of 30 cents. But the two months are always priced differently. It is unheard of for the two months to have the exact price tick for tick for 2 days.
So what is going on here? It is obvious that a computer is pegging both markets, and that this is a new approach to a typical manipulation scheme of running up a contract at rollover, so those who need to rollover, pay the highest price to do so. There is nothing new about this scheme it goes on in Brent and WTI all the time for years. But this is the first time that it has been done with such brazen and open contempt for regulators that they just peg the two WTI months to
by Zero Hedge - May 20th, 2013 10:48 pm
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Authored by Andrew McKillop,
The theory of Petrodollar Warfare can be attributed to US analyst and author William R Clarke, and his 2005 book of that title which interpreted the US-UK decision to invade Iraq in 2003. He called this an “oil currency war”, but the concept of the petrodollar system and petrodollar recyling dates back to the eve of the first Oil Shock in 1973-1974. The role of the petrodollar system as a driving force of US foreign policy is explained by analysts and historians as basic to maintaining the dollar’s status as the world’s dominant reserve currency – and the currency in which oil is priced.
The term “petrodollar warfare” as used by William R. Clark says that major international war, legal or not, was seen as justified to protect the petrodollar system. Over and above the loss of human life, the combined costs of the Afghan and Iraq wars for the US are controversial like the interpretation of these wars as “oil wars”, but analysts like Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes put the total combined war cost at above $4 trillion. This can be compared with – and totally dwarfs – the annual cost of US oil imports, which are now sharply declining on a year-in year-out basis as domestic shale oil output ramps up, and US oil demand stagnates.
Clarke’s theory, like the explanation of the role and power of the “petrodollar system” depends on two basic drivers. Most major developed countries rely on oil imports, which are purchased using dollars, so they are forced to hold large stockpiles of dollars in order to continue importing oil. In turn this also creates consistent demand for dollars, and prevents the dollar from losing its relative international monetary value, regardless of what happens to the US economy.
Variants of the Petrodollar War concept include the role of oil currency conflicts and rivalry, notably concerning US relations with Iran, Venezuela and Russia, and possibly with Europe concerning the gradual replacement of US dollars with the euro, for oil transactions. More important, the entire petromoney system and the potential for Petrodollar War hinges on global oil import demand and the oil price. Both of these have to hold up. When or if they do not, foreign oil importer nations who formerly…