Archive for the ‘Members Only’ Category

PhilstockWorld May Portfolio Review (Members Only)

$1,800,221 – that's up 300% from our $600,000 start on our paired portfolios back on 11/26/13.

We haven't made too many changes in the past 30 days but we still gained a very nice $47,535 since the April Review ($1,752,686) on our paired Long and Short-Term portfollios.  While $47,535 is 8% of our original, it's "only" 2.7% of our April total so yes, we are playing a bit too conservatively for this market – despite putting up some very impressive numbers.  

The S&P 500 was at 2,360 on April 9th and now 2,433, so it's up 3.1%, which means we're now one of those funds that is underperforming the S&P 500, right?  But that's not the purpose of our portfolio strategy – clearly we outperform the S&P over the long haul and that's because our hedges keep us (mostly) from losing money in the downturns.  Being safe from downturns has a price though, when the market is gaining at an 18% annualized pace – we aim for a more conservative average than that.

Since April 9th, we've added new longs on ABX, DIN, EWZ, IMAX, SEE, SKT, TLRD and VZ and, if you are having trouble recognizing some of the symbols – well that's my point – we're running out of cheap stocks to buy at these days, so we either have to drink the Kool-Aid and buy high and hope to sell higher or we can wait PATIENTLY for a pullback that gives us better entries on better stocks.  

Going back to last July's review, when at S&P 2,120 I asked "Are We Too Bullish?", we were at $1,519,454 so we're up about 20% from that total but keep in mind we still trade the LTP like it's a $500,000 portfolio with 80% of our money in CASH!!! and gaining $300,000 on $500,000 is 60% – that's why our growth is slowing now, the way we're plaing it, 20% a year is just fine!  The key is to learn how to CONSISTENTLY get those 20% returns, so they can compound over time.  $500,000 compounded at 20% for 20 years is $19,168,799 – that should be enough to paper anyone's retirement, right?

The trick is to
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Philstockworld April Portfolio Review (Members Only)

What a first quarter!  

When we last reviewed, back on Jan 22nd, the S&P closed at 2,271 and we were generally playing for a flat market and worried that we might be a bit too bearish but, now that the S&P is at 2,362 (up 4%), we're a lot more comfortable with a more bearish stance – albeit after adding a few bullish positions along the way.  

Before we get into a review I want to make a very important point.  Our Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) was last reviewed on March 15th, and it's a self-contained portfolio, with the hedges right alongside the long-term positions.  As I've noted on many occasions, when you have a well-balanced portfolio and you are practicing our system of BEING THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler, you shouldn't have to do much from month to month (see last year's Forbes interview for a good explanation).

We did add 4 bullish trades in the last two weeks (ATI, CDE, CHK & NLY) and, on the 15th, we called for 2 of our positions to be adjusted and one was closed (SONC) – that's it.  On March 15th our OOP was at $270,475 and, as of Friday's close, we're at $278,177 – up $7,702, which is 7.7% of our original $100,000 start (8/8/15) and that's just fine for two week's "work", isn't it?

Related imageInvesting doesn't have to be stressful – certainly not if you are on the house side of the table.  Mostly it's a matter of keeping ourselves well-balanced and letting the premiums we sold run down over time – that's what casinos do and they seem to do very well for themselves!  

You just need to accept the fact that betting on the markets is no better than betting on casino games – you may win or you may lose but, over time, the odds are rigged against you – especially with options so, logically, if we SELL options to suckers who think they can beat the house – we'll do very well!  That's it – that's the whole secret to our success.

Our last major Portfolio Review was back on Jan 22nd and, since
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Philstockworld 2017 Watch List – 24 Stocks to Keep Our Eye On

Image result for stocks to watchTwo weeks ago we began compiling our 2017 Watch List.

A Watch List is not a Buy List, a Watch List is a list of stocks we'd LIKE to buy – IF they get cheaper.  Of course that's true of every stock but these are stocks we consider good values where they are now and are ALMOST cheap enough for us to want to get in and we want to be ready when they do give us a good entry – so we watch them!  

I like the Finviz charts because they constantly update, so any time you refresh this post, the charts will be updated to the day.  I've also put dates on the last round of picks because we've had a lot of movement since 2/17 and some of the stocks have gone higher (we are not chasting) and a couple have gotten cheaper and those we are likely to move on. 

The trading notes are the best idea we have AT THE TIME the stock is added to our list – our goal is to get a BETTER trade set-up than the one we highlight, NOT the one we are discussing – those are for reference purposes.  For example, Target (TGT) took a nice dive on earnings and are much cheaper now ($57.35) than the $65.55 we were watching them at.  $55 was our target for short puts but NOW you can sell the 2019 $55 puts for $7.25, $2 (40%) better than they were pre-earnings.

Even better, we can collect the $5.20 we wanted by selling the 2019 $50 puts and we will sell 10 of those in the LTP (buying back our 5 short Jan $67.50 puts) and now we can add 10 2019 $55 ($7.60)/65 ($3.60) bull call spreads for $4 which, as a new trade, is a net credit of $1.20 per contract ($1,200) which means the worst case is owning TGT for net $48.80 – THOSE are the kind of trades we love to be in!  

"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy


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Rigged Game: Ever Wonder How Wall Street Analysts Are So Good At Forecasting? Hint, It’s Not Their Excel Skills

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Our readers should have little doubt at this point about our view on the integrity of wall street and equity markets.  In fact, we just spoke yesterday about all the little accounting games that companies play to "beat" earnings estimates in a post entitled "Mind The "GAAP" (Or How The Game Is Really 'Rigged')." 

Well, CFOs can't bear the full burden of earnings management, they need complicit "independent" counterparts on wall street as well.  A recent article in the Wall Street Journal points out how public companies use wall street analysts to manage quarterly earnings expectations and ultimately their stock prices.  The article summarizes the quarterly dance played out between wall street analysts and investor relations teams to "manage" earnings down to a level that is ultimately "beatable" and thus produces a nice stock bounce on earnings day.  Analysts, of course, are willing partners in the game because being a "team player" means better access to management teams, better attendance at bank-hosted conferences and the added benefit of very "accurate" forecasting for hedge fund clients that pay handsomely for their efforts.  As the WSJ points out:

Analysts whose forecasts are far from what companies end up reporting risk losing credibility with clients and could get less access to company management. Those are reasons to listen if a company calls with a suggestion, according to analysts.

Roger Freeman, who left the stock-research industry in 2014 and now works at a technology startup, says: “If someone is trying to get your numbers down, they will highlight all the negatives and not positives, and you’ll come away thinking: ‘Gee, that sounds pretty bad,’ and sometimes take your numbers down.”

To prove the point, the WSJ reviewed over 6,000 earnings reports from 1Q13 through 1Q16 to see just how frequently companies manage to "beat" earnings estimates.  "Shockingly" an overwhelming number of companies manage to report earnings that are exactly in-line or slightly above analyst expectations.  But hey, maybe the analysts are just really good at modeling.

Managing Expectations

The WSJ went on to provide a couple of recent examples of "managed" earnings, with AT&T's 1Q16 numbers being the first, saying:


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Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

WTI Pops Back Above $52 On Unexpected Crude Draw

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

WTI is hovering around $52 as all eyes are watching API's data to gain inisght into how fast refiners are coming back on line. The previous week saw the trend of crude builds and product draws continue but last week crude actually drew down (against expectations of a build), gasoline built (against expectations of a draw and Cushing stocks rose most in 6 months.

API

  • Crude -761k (+3.1mm exp) - first draw since August
  • Cushing +1.064mm - biggest build in 6 months
  • ...


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Phil's Favorites

Three Cheers for MP Daniel J Hannon: Why Not a Better Brexit Deal For Everyone?

Courtesy of Mish.

The EU values political correctness more than jobs.

The result was a collapse in support for Angela Merkel, and the rise of AfD and FDP in Germany. Let’s not forget Marine Le Pen in France, Beppe Grillo in Italy, and the far right in Austria.

For the sake of political correctness, the EU is bound and determined to punish the UK for Brexit even though new studies suggest that a Hard Brexit Will hurt the EU More Than Britain.

The European Union will lose more than twice as many jobs as Britain after a hard Brexit, research by one of the world’s leading universities found as tough UK-EU ...



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ValueWalk

CNBC Has Lowest Rated Quarter Since 1991

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The latest from CNBC vs FBN numbers battle – more bad news (bad might be understatement since it had the worst numbers in 26 years) for the former

FOX Business Network (FBN) ended the third quarter as the number one rated business network on television, marking the first time ever the network has outpaced rival CNBC in Business Day viewers for four consecutive quarters. In addition, FBN had the top five rated business programs for the quarter, while CNBC delivered 22 year lows in Business Day viewers and record lows in the 25-54 demo.

Averaging 187,000 total viewers, FBN saw its Business Day audience grow 26 percent over last year. Led by strong performances from anchors Stuart Varney, Neil Cavuto, Trish Rega...



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Insider Scoop

Why JPMorgan, PNC Won't Be Good Buys This Coming Earnings Season

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related JPM Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For September 26, 2017 The Market In 5 Minutes: Tech Stocks Look To Bounce Back...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

New "Wu Tang Coin" Raises Money To Buy Martin Shkreli's Copy Of "Once Upon A Time In Shaolin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In the latest sign that the market for initial coin offerings has probably peaked, Bloomberg is reporting that a company is planning to launch an ICO with the explicit goal of raising enough money to purchase the only extant copy of “Once Upon A Time In Shaolin”, the rare Wu Tang Clan record and current record holder for most expensive single album ever sold. Martin Shkreli once pai...



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Chart School

Can Tech Breakouts Occur From Here?

Courtesy of Declan.

The squeeze set-up from last week which offered bulls a likely breakout has now fallen back inside the prior consolidation. Bulls now have a decision to make; do they defend the rising channel? Or let prices drift lower and risk a seller capitulation. A channel break at this stage would be very concerning and would open moves to test the June and August swing lows along with the 200-day MA - each a long way from current levels; in addition, a loss of the August swing low would effectively confirm a double-top.


...

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Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks" But TNN Says "Not So Fast"

What do you think? (There's a comment section below )

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

******

Rebutal by The Nattering Naybob, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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