Posts Tagged ‘BRK.B’

What Me Worry Thursday?

What a freakin’ recovery!

As I said on Monday: "It’s a paper tiger of a straw man we’re building for $1Tn but you HAVE to respect $1,000,000,000,000 – you just have to…  Our 5% Rule series for the S&P over the 1,155 breakdown line is the very critical 1,170, followed by 1,185, 1,200 (critical), 1,215 and 1,230 and THEN we are on the way to recovery."  Wow, that guy is AMAZING!  Anyway, so here we are at 1,170, after two days of testing the 1,155 line as a bottom so now it’s onwards and upwards to 1,185 hopefully.  I also said on Monday: "Below that, we’re not too impressed but it also won’t be very surprising if all $1Tn buys us these days is some moderate lift that isn’t strong enough to break our major technicals."

We have been casting a wide and bullish net since the crash, finally pulling some of our sideline cash for long plays on ABX, APPY, BAC, BIDU, BRK/B, BSX, C, CAT, DIA (3), DF, ERX, GOOG, LIZ, LVS, MEE, MON (3), RIG, T (2), TBT (2), TZA (shorting it), UNG and WFR.  We’re hedging heavily, of course, but it feels good to have longs again after being in cash for a while.   Our short-term bearish plays (mostly DIA and TZA) have been crushing us so far, which is good in a rally but yesterday was a bit much for us and we got a little more bearish but it looks like the G7 has adopted the "Better Red Than Dead" mantra as the World racks up astounding deficits to put off admitting that this little debt problem is not isolated to the PIIGS nations. 

Nonetheless, the global markets are rallying in unison – even while the Pound ($1.47) and the Euro ($1.26) collapse and even the Yen jumped back up last night, falling off the very BS 93.63 to the dollar it hit at 3am to psych up the Nikkei exporters back down to 92.75 this morning.  I noted weeks ago how the Yen knocked down for Japan’s open and then drifts lower into the US open virtually every night – it’s what currency traders call the "Goldman Trade" because you can bet it every single day and have a perfect quarter.  Sure it’s blatant manipulation designed to fool an entire nation of investors but, what else is new – Fuggedaboutit

So, a TRILLION Dollars down the rabbit hole in Europe – Fuggedaboutit!  I pointed out to Members in yesterday’s
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Natural Gas Options Trader Enacts Bullish Risk Reversal

Today’s tickers: UNG, IP, EEM, CAH, TRA, UAUA, USO, WFMI, BRK.B & ANF

UNG – United States Natural Gas ETF – Shares of the natural gas exchange-traded fund, which mirrors the price and performance of natural gas, are down 1.85% to $9.67 with just under one hour remaining in the trading session. Options traders initiated bullish plays in the March contract despite the dip lower in the price of the underlying shares. It looks like one investor initiated a bullish risk reversal to position for a rebound in the price per UNG share by March expiration. The trader sold 8,250 in-the-money puts at the March $10 strike for a premium of $0.64 each in order to offset the cost of buying 8,250 calls at the same strike for $0.40 apiece. The trader pockets a net credit of $0.24 per contract on the reversal, which he keeps if shares of the fund trade above $10.00 by expiration day. Additional profits are available to the upside if and when the price per share exceeds $10.00 apiece.

IP – International Paper Co. – Global paper and packaging firm, International Paper Company, enticed bullish options traders to initiate optimistic positions in the March contract as shares of the underlying stock jumped 6% in late afternoon trading to $23.92. Plain-vanilla call buying took place at the March $25 strike where upwards of 10,000 contracts were purchased for an average premium of $0.45 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to accrue profits should IP’s shares rally another 6.40% over the current value of the stock to surpass the effective breakeven point on the calls at $25.45 by March expiration.

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Shares of the emerging markets exchange-traded fund, which generally corresponds to the price of the MSCI Emerging Markets index that was created by MSCI as a benchmark for international stock performance, rallied 2.30% to $39.32 this afternoon. June contract options activity on the EEM suggests shares may stagnate near the current price through expiration in four months. It looks like options traders sold straddles in order to pocket premium on the sale of both calls and puts. Investors sold approximately 9,100 calls at the June $39 strike for an average premium of $2.95 apiece and sold 9,100 puts at the same strike for a premium of $2.65 each. Gross premium enjoyed by straddle-sellers amounts to $5.60 per contract. Investors…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , ,




Wintery Wednesday – Are We Now Corrected?

Was that it?

A 10% correction (David Fry chart on right) and we’re done?  If so, this is still a fairly bullish market, and it should be, as our sell-off last year was, beyond a doubt, way overdone.  Often people forget the fundamentals of investing and the biggest fundamental of them all is: "Where else are you going to put your money?"  There many fine companies out there with P/E ratios that are below 15.  That means if you give them a dollar, they will return 6.6% in earnings.  IBM has a PE of 12, which is an 8.3% return on my money and, according to projections, that will improve to 11 next year, generating 9 cents for each dollar I give them

Call me an optimist but I think IBM is a fairly safe place to keep my money.  Perhaps as safe as 4% TBills, or 7% Greek bonds or 3% Yen Notes or, Heaven forbid, a bank!  In fact, not many banks are paying 1.8% on your deposits but IBM does through dividends.  IBM was my example trade in the Weeekend Wrap-Up so I won’t get into strategies here but that is what our whole Buy List is about – picking up great long-term values and hedging them to even more effective entries.  

Not every stock is as rock solid as IBM but (going back to the Wrap-Up) who did we buy when the chips were down last week?  C, CCJ, TBT, GOOG, XLF, AAPL, AMED, CSCO, TM, LOW, AKAM, LLY, NLY, GE, TNA, USO, ABX, DELL, FXI, UYG, BRK/B.  Not exactly a radical collection of picks is it?  Yesterday, with the market up 2.5% from our shopping spree – we bought NOTHING.  Part of the "buy low – sell high" philosophy is waiting for the market to be either high or low.  Two weeks ago, on Jan 29th, I charted 10,058 on the Dow as a critical support line and, from our Buy List Update this weekend, I put up the following chart for Members:

And where did we finish yesterday on the Dow?  10,058.  See, this charting thing is easy – that’s why I don’t usually bother, it’s dullsville!  Let’s now turn our attention to our other major levels of 10,165 and 10,300 which, keep in mind, is nothing more than our predicted "weak bounce" off the drop from 10,700.  As I said in the above chart, we can expect
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Long-term Put Play on Intel Provides Protection through 2011

Today’s tickers: INTC, FXI, UFS, TM, BRK.B, X, QCOM, MCO, APC, COST, HNZ & DLTR

INTC – Intel Corp. – Shares of chip-making giant, Intel Corp., dipped lower in early trading, but rebounded this afternoon to stand 0.75% higher on the day at $20.15. Long-term protective positioning in the January 2011 contract on the stock suggests cautious optimism by Intel-option traders. One investor purchased a put spread by picking up 5,000 in-the-money puts at the January 2011 $22.5 strike for a premium of $4.05 each, marked against the sale of 5,000 puts at the lower January 2011 $12.5 strike for $0.35 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $3.70 per contract. The trader responsible for the spread is likely long shares of the underlying stock. The spread, in this scenario, serves as an insurance policy on the value of the underlying position should Intel’s shares slip beneath the effective breakeven price of $18.80 in the next year to expiration. The investor is protected even if shares of the semiconductor chip producer collapse down to $12.50 by January of 2011.

FXI – iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund – Shares of the exchange-traded fund, which invests in twenty-five of the largest and most liquid Chinese companies, are down 0.75% to $38.27 with just under one hour remaining in the trading session. FXI’s share price has declined nearly 15% in the past few weeks, from a 2010 high of $44.53 on January 6, 2010, down to an intraday low today of $37.89. One option trader’s actions in the March contract today suggest he has had enough of the downturn, and is looking for a sharp rebound by expiration in two months. The investor initiated a three-legged combination play using both calls and puts on the fund. It appears the main portion of the trade is a ratio-bullish risk reversal involving the sale of 5,000 deep in-the-money put options at the March $41 strike for a premium of $3.66 each, spread against the purchase of 10,000 calls at the same strike for $0.70 apiece. The purchase of 10,000 puts at the March $35 strike for $0.85 each rounded out the third leg of the transaction. The investor pockets a net credit of $0.56 per contract on the trade, which he keeps if shares rally up to $41.00 by expiration. Additional profits accrue to the upside if shares bounce 7.15% higher to…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,




Capital One Bears Out in Full Force in Options Land

Today’s tickers: COF, CAT, XRT, XLY, XLB, XLF, KRE, BRK.B, MCD & ISRG

COF – Capital One Financial Corp. – Better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings of $0.83 per share, which blew straight past average analyst estimates of $0.45 a share, failed to shield the stock from the massive beating received during the trading session. Shares plummeted 11% to an intraday low of $38.18 after analysts at FBR Capital Markets slashed their forecast for COF’s earnings. FBR analysts cited “shrinking margins and new U.S. credit-card regulations” as reasons for the reducing earnings estimates according to one Bloomberg article released this morning. Bearish option traders are out in full force, populating both the call and put sides of the stock with pessimistic transactions. Investors purchased put options as low as the February $35 strike where 1,200 contracts were picked up for an average premium of $0.57 apiece. Traders long the puts are perhaps bracing for an additional 9.80% shift down in the price of the underlying to the breakeven point on the puts at $34.43 by expiration next month. Approximately 2,000 nearly in-the-money puts were purchased at the higher February $38 strike price at an average premium of $1.46 apiece. Call selling added to the bearish picture as some 2,100 contracts were shed at the out-of-the-money February $40 strike for a premium of $1.43 per contract. Finally, one trader initiated a pessimistic stance in the January 2012 contract. Perhaps this investor believes today’s turmoil is just the beginning of Capital One’s troubles, or, alternatively, the trader may simply be looking to keep the dollar credit on the following transaction. The trader purchased 1,500 puts at the January 2012 $30 strike for a premium of $4.36 each, spread against the sale of 3,000 puts at the lower January 2012 $25 strike for which he received $2.68 apiece. The investor pockets a net credit of $1.00 per contract on the spread, which he keeps if shares settle above $30.00 by expiration.

CAT – Caterpillar, Inc. – Surprisingly bullish trades befell machinery maker Caterpillar today. CAT’s shares commenced the trading day with higher shares, but slipped lower during the session, and currently reside 1.35% lower on the day at $56.09. Investors expecting shares to recover by expiration in March shed 5,000 in-the-money put options at the March $57.5 strike for an average premium of $3.76 apiece. Open interest at that strike of 5,169 lots suggests this transaction…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , ,




Testy Tuesday – Dow 9,650, Berkshire $60 Edition!

Wheee, this is fun!

Just two weeks ago, on October 17th, I warned in the Weekly Wrap-Up that it was "Dow 10,000 or Bust" for the next week and we failed that one and last Wednesday we were looking to hold NYSE 6,900 and THAT failed too.  Now we enter into the second phase of our limbo game where the deep-voiced guy asks the question "how low can you go?" and we’ll be setting our next bar at our long-standing 9,650 target for the Dow,  which we are already hitting in pre-market trading.  If that fails, we’ll have to look down to S&P 1,000.  As you can see from Jesse’s Chart, we took a nice bounce off serious resistance yesterday but we’re just not feeling it yet, even though the market is now as technically oversold as it was in March

Yesterday was like a roller coaster and my first Alert to Members of the morning targeted 9,775 as the on/off line for our bullish/bearish posture on our DIA covers.  We whipped past that line right about 10 am as we got good reports from ISM, Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending but by 12:45 we had broken back down so I sent out an Alert calling to refocus back to 55% bearish by adding the DIA Jan $100 ($5) and Jan $102 puts ($6.20), already covered by the Nov $99 puts ($2.50). 

The reason we mess around with our covers is we don’t want to flip in and out of our option positions, which are generally either straight bearish or well-hedged long positions, is because options carry a relatively large bid/ask spread and cost you money every time you get in and out.  So, on the whole, we’d rather let our over-riding cover plays, like our DIA spread, adjust our stance as conditions change, making a single adjustment that keeps us balanced as we ride out the market waves. 

It’s been a couple of weeks since we had a good, old-fashioned stick save but we got a mother of one yesterday (as seen in Dave Fry’s chart) which was right on schedule as Kustomz bought it up in Member Chat at 3:09 and I agreed at 3:19 that "It does feel like a pre-stick move" and we grabbed VIX $25 puts at .85 to protect ourselves from a sudden surge in complacency.

By 3:33, my next comment to Members was: "The stick lives!" but…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks and Crude Oil hung up by this key pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below compares the price patterns of Crude Oil and the NYSE Index over the past 8-years. Crude and the NYSE don’t always correlate, over the past couple of years though, they have in a big way!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since early 2015, the correlation between Crude Oil and the NYSE has been very high. They both hit highs together in 2015 at (1) and they both created double bottom lows together at (2).

Over the past 15-months, both appear to be ...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Dividend Reinvestment - Automatic versus Manual

By DIVIDEND GROWTH INVESTOR. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There are two schools of thought when it comes to dividend reinvestment. One of the options is to automatically reinvest dividends, whereas the other option is to selectively reinvest dividends received.

The automatic dividend reinvestment is the easiest one to do. Once you purchase a dividend paying stock, you essentially check the “dividend reinvestment” box. As a result, your dividend income is reinvested into more shares of the same stock, and you start the income compounding process. The set it and forget it type of action is particularly appealing to in...



more from ValueWalk

Zero Hedge

Live Feed: NJ Transit Commuter Train Crashes Into Hoboken Station - "Mass Injuries" Reported

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A New Jersey Transit commuter train derailed and crashed into the Lackawanna Station in Hoboken, NJ this morning around 8:30AM causing major structural damage to the terminal and numerous passenger injuries.  Initial images from the station seem to indicate that a section of the roof has collpased and passengers are reportedly trapped under debris.

Passengers told WABC it was train number 1614 on the Pascack Valley Line, which left Spring Valley, N.J. at 7:23 a.m. bound for Hoboken and apparently was running late.

According to ...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

India Raids Pakistan, Claims "Significant Casualties" Inflicted: Don't Worry It's Just a "Surgical Strike"

Courtesy of Mish.

Border skirmishes between India and Pakistan have been going on for years. But with social mood darkening everywhere, and with India making the claim ‘Significant casualties’ inflicted on ‘launch pads’ for militant attacks, one can’t help but wonder when this erupts in a major way.

The Financial Times reports India launches ‘surgical strikes’ on Pakistan terror targets.

India said it had carried out “surgical strikes” overnight across its disputed border with Pakistan to target groups of militants that were allegedly planning to carry out terror attacks on Indian territory.

...

more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Just as it's been announced, US oil producers may readying to thwart OPEC's plan (Business Insider Australia)

While the specifics over how it will be achieved are as yet unknown, and there are already signs that some members are uncomfortable with the decision, it appears that OPEC will reduce oil output for the first time in eight years when the grou...



more from Paul

Mapping The Market

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

By Jean-Luc

Good riddance – cleaned up a lot of frauds there:

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

In early 2009, the seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion. Today, they’ve been all but wiped out.

When Barack Obama took office, America’s seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion, with more than 815,000 students enrolled at campuses spread across the country. The schools were flooded with with people seeking shelter from the recession, returning to school to pick up new skills.

Almost eight years later, the industry has been decimated. The seven largest listed operators are worth just over $6 billion, and the most valuable co...



more from M.T.M.

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!



Date Found: Sunday, 27 March 2016, 02:31:30 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cach...



more from Chart School

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



more from Our Members

Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



more from Biotech

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



more from Promotions



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>