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Posts Tagged ‘CHL’

Toppy Tuesday – S&P 1,950 Edition

SPX WEEKLYHere we go again!  

As you can see from Dave Fry's S&P chart, we're back in the top of the channel on a Tuesday and I will refer you to April 1st's "Triple Top Tuesday" and December 31st's "Terminal Tuesday" – both of which were points we thought the market was topping out before.  

Actually, in both cases, we did have a mild pullback, but nothing that broke the trend – so far.

Back in that December post, we were playing gold (/YG) bullish at $1,185 to finish the year, based on our premise of MORE FREE MONEY in 2014 keeping the markets afloat.  We also went bullish on SHLD at $40, which is like $30 post-spit.  

In the April post, it was our 3rd try at 1,880 on the S&P and we had just cashed out our Income Portfolio and I we lost $10 betting the Nasdaq would be above 4,200 at April expirations on a TQQQ spread (now 4,350 – so bad timing) but our support held and kept the damage to a minimum.  We also (in the morning post) called for selling the AAPL Jan $450 puts for $5.90 to pay for those spreads and AAPL just split 7:1 so those are now the $64.29 puts at .25.  7 x .25 = $1.75 so up $4.15 (70%) already on that play.  

RUT WEEKLYWe also had bullish trade ideas for HOV, CHL, FCX, ABX and RIG – right in the morning post!  Our best play, however, was shorting the Russell Futures (/TF) at 1,180 in Member Chat at 10:53 – as that was the beginning of an $9,000 per contract pullback on that index – all the way back to 1,090 (where we went long).  

As you can see from Dave's Russell chart, we're just playing a channel with our trades – it's really not that complicated.  Yesterday the Russell hit 1,180 and – guess what – we shorted it again!  Now you are catching on to our "secret" strategy!  

Already this morning the Russell Futures are down to 1,170, which is +$1,000 per contract from 1,180 but our big bet…
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Monday Market Movement – Down for a Change

Wheeeeeee!

What a ride we're getting (see Bespoke Charts).  We discussed the fun that led up to this drop on Friday, so no need to rehash it here.  Over the weekend, Philstockworld reviewed "This Month in Fascism" and I put up a post outlining "Capitalism's End Game" where we had some nice additional discussion in that post's Member Chat so read that an you're all up to speed.  

That brings us to what is happening now.  There was little news this weekend other than inflation accelerating in China, with their CPI hitting 3.6% in March vs 3.3% expected but that number is BS anyway as food alone is up 7.5%.  For the Quarter, the CPI was up 3.8% overall and China's target for the year is 4% so this effectively takes stimulus action off the table for now.  The ONLY thing keeping CPI lower is the now-steady price of housing, which is down at 2% but that's still 2% higher than prices the Government has already decided the people can no longer afford.  

China is clearly slowing down but STILL having inflation.  The WSJ points out that China's iron-ore demand is down and other emerging-market economies also appear to be losing steam with India's growth down to 6.1% and Brazil down to 3% with Russia having almost no growth at all.  So much for the BRICs…  "Year-to-date returns have been quite deceptive. All that really happened in 2012 is a typically powerful bear-market bounce off 2011 lows," said Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management.   

We've been hanging onto long-term short EDZ positions in anticipation of a sell-off in the emerging markets and, despite $25.6Bn of net inflows in Q1 (the most since 2006), EEM has gone nowhere since the end of January, which is funny, since only $1.7Bn flowed into the US stock market in Q1 yet our indexes are up 10% – but that's a different article!

Anyway, so EDZ is still at $12.79 and if we figure we get a 10% pullback in the Emerging Markets then EDZ pops 30% to $16.62 and you can buy the May $14/16 bull call spread for .40 with a 400% upside at $16 and we used to like to cover those with CHL but CHL has flown up to $54 and no longer cheap so I'm thinking FCX is a nice,…
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Thanksgiving Thoughts

SPY DAILY What an ugly finish November is having!  

We’ve been trying to get bullish with little success and, if we are not reversing tomorrow, I will be regretting the wasted time poking at bullish plays when we could have been going "wheeeee" on the slide.  

I thought that blue line on Dave Fry’s chart was going to hold, it’s about 2.5% down from our Must Hold level for the S&P on the Big Chart (1,235) and that would have been a reasonable (and slight) overshoot of the 10% drop we were expecting so we played for the bounce but now we’ve blown our -5% line at 1,173 and our next support level is -10% at 1,112 – a very sad level to revisit if we do.  

Technically, of course, we’re breaking down.  Fundamentally, I’m not so sure.  The fear is palpable as Europe looks terrible and clearly all these austerity measures are taking a toll on the Global economy but it’s simply NOT showing up in the data yet.  PMI’s are dropping across the Globe but the Purchasing Manager’s index is a SENTIMENT indicator that reflects the OPINION of the buyers about business prospects.

As I have been pointing out (yes, there was a point) in my recent series of articles about market and media manipulation – there is a protracted campaign underway to push sentiment down – to chase retail buyers out of the markets.  

Who is doing this?  Perhaps it is the IBanks, who want to bottom out the market ahead of QE3, when we’ll be off to the races again.  Perhaps it is the Fed and Treasury, who want to chase people into the $140Bn worth of bonds they have to sell each month.  Perhaps it is the Republicans, who want to campaign against the worst possible economy next year to prove that Obama has blown his handling of the economy almost as bad as Bush did – so we may as well try one of their idiots again since it seems to make no difference.  Don’t laugh – I have a button for Romney that says that

Whatever and whoever is behind the negativity (and let’s not forget Germany, who are angling to take control of the EU and will be able to do so if things deteriorate further) – our job as investors is not to particularly care – but…
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Bullish Strategies Abound as Market Posts Gains

www.interactivebrokers.com

 Today’s tickers: IPG, UPS, ATML, CBS, CHL, CAVM, ROST & WL

IPG - Interpublic Group Companies, Inc. – Long-term bullish trading in Interpublic Group LEAPs indicates one strategist is preparing for the price of the underlying stock to climb substantially higher by expiration day in January 2012. Shares of the advertising and marketing services firm rose 4.80% to $10.46 by 2:50 pm ET. The options strategist appears to have enacted a delta neutral transaction, buying 210,000 shares of the underlying stock at $10.40 each, spread against the sale of 5,000 calls at the January 2012 $12.5 strike for an average premium of $0.975 apiece on a 0.42 delta. The sale of the calls can be considered a financing mechanism as well as a potential exit strategy on the long position in shares. The investor could wind up having the shares called from him at $12.50 each in the event that at expiration IPG’s shares exceed $12.50. In this case, the trader would realize gains of 32.625% on the rally in shares from the reduced purchase price of $9.425 a share up to $12.50 a share. Interpublic’s overall reading of options implied volatility is down 3.4% at 40.65% one hour before the final bell. The marketing services provider announces its third-quarter results before the market opens on October 29, 2010.

UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. – A sizeable near-term bullish transaction involving 23,000 call options and a large chunk of UPS shares caught our eye today. Shares of the world’s largest package delivery company, which announced Friday it plans to raise the non-contractual UPS Freight rate by 5.9% starting October 18, are currently up 3.20% to stand at $68.25 as of 2:30 pm ET. It looks like the investor responsible for the transaction established a covered call on the stock to position for the price of the underlying shares to continue higher ahead of October expiration. The trader purchased approximately 322,000 shares at $67.57 each and sold 23,000 calls at a premium of $0.19 apiece on…
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Love Letters (Weekend Reading on Valentine’s Day)

Happy Valentine’s Day!

Last Valentine’s Day was as Saturday, following a frightening Friday the 13th, where we had fallen through the 8,000 line on the Dow.  I wrote a very interesting post that morning discussing how I came about my political views, which is good for new Members to check out.   We also flipped short that day on SKF, too early at $130 but that ended well as we kept after them and it was our biggest bet by March 6th, which eventually returned over 1,000%.  We also stopped shorting GOOG at $350 (it did keep going to $300 but the upside was nice too).  I closed the morning post with:

For us, it’s all about the levels as we try to remain unbiased as investors, no matter how voraciously we defend our political views.  Dow 7,800, S&P 820, Nas 1,460, NYSE 5,100, Russell 437 and SOX 203 all better continue to hold today but, even if they do, we’re nowhere near where we want to be and we’re going to take some bearish covers into the weekend – just in case.  So whether you are a witch celebrating the horrors of the 13th or waiting for a rose from your true love the next day, remember to be careful out there – we are certainly still deep, deep in the woods!

That Tuesday (Monday was President’s day) we fell 300 points and another 300 points by the end of the week!  That was a fitting way to mark the 80th anniversary of the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre when Al Capone’s "South Side" gang, dressed as cops, rousted a garage run by Bugs Moran’s "North Side" gang and had them stand against the wall and then executed all 7 men.  They shot them 70 times with machine guns and made their escape by using the Capone men dressed as cops to "arrest" the other Capone men and drive them away from the scene in broad daylight.  Now that’s what I call a good plan! 

Here’s a great chart that summarizes our year to date. Someone else found this, I wish I knew how to use StockCharts this well, they have tons of good things in there:

It’s a bit worrying that XLU is doing so poorly – so much for diversification keeping you safe…  It’s going to be worth rummaging through the utility companies looking for good dividend payers who are on sale.  SO…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

New World Disorder: Emerging Division Between East And West Threatens To Plunge The Globe Into Chaos

New World Disorder: Emerging Division Between East And West Threatens To Plunge The Globe Into Chaos

Courtesy of Michael Snyder, the Economic Collapse

In general, over the last several decades the world has experienced an unprecedented era of peace and prosperity.  The opening up of relations with China and the "end of the Cold War" resulted in an extended period of cooperati...



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Zero Hedge

Senate Democrats Push To Triple Israel's Iron-Dome Aid To $576 Million

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

U.S. Senate Democrats included $225 million for Israel's Iron Dome rocket interception system in an emergency funding bill on Tuesday, which, as Bloomberg reports, in addition to the $351 million that’s already under discussion for Iron Dome in fiscal 2015 would bring the potential new funding to $576 million, compared with the $176 million currently requested by the Pentagon. "Iron Dome has saved countless Israeli lives," Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in a letter dated yesterday and while the Iron Dome system is built by ...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Record Intraday and Closing Highs

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Key indexes around the globe are exhibiting little volatility in the wake global conflict. The Nikkei and Dow closed the day down 0.10% and 0.16%, respectively. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 was up 0.12%.

The S&P 500 took center stage for US indexes, setting new intraday and closing records despite ongoing tensions in Europe and the Middle East. The index opened higher, quickly sold off to its -0.05% intraday low and then rallied to a record intraday high, up 0.29%. After a minor lunch-hour dip, it spent the afternoon in a narrow trading range to its 0.18% gain for a record close.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.48%, unchanged from yesterday's close. It is now only 4 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.50% year-to-date.

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Relaxed Regulations Highlight Nuclear ETFs

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Environmental Protection Agency is considering a review of its 1977 rule that limits the amount of whole-body radiation that any member of the public can be exposed to as a result of the uranium fuel cycle.

While they have not made any immediate determination to change the current level of 0.25 millisieverts per year of allowable radiation, they are reviewing the scientific data to decide if changes need to be made.

Items under review include water resource protection, spent fuel storage facilities and alternative technologie...



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Option Review

Sizable Call Spread Trades On Orexigen

A large call spread initiated on Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Ticker: OREX) on Monday morning looks for shares in the name to rally approximately 30% by September expiration. The September expiration is noteworthy as the company awaits the results of the FDA’s review of its resubmitted New Drug Application (NDA) for NB32, an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss, after the review was extended for three months back in June. The upcoming Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is September 11, 2014, according to a press release issued by the company. Shares in Orexigen today are up roughly 0.40% at $5.34 as of 2:15 p.m. ET.

...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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