There is one major problem with putting houses of card back together – they tend to fall…over and over. And while abundant liquidity in May and June served as an artificial prop to return European core and PIIGS spreads to previous levels merely as mean reversion algos took holds, the second time around won’t be as lucky. CDR’s Tim Backshall was on the Strategy Session today, discussing the key trends in sovereign products over the past few months, noting the declining liquidity in both sovereign cash and derivative exposure (we will refresh on the DTCC sovereign data later after its weekly Tuesday update). Yet the most interesting observation by Backshall is the declining halflife of risk-on episodes, which much like the SNB’s (now declining) interventions, are having less of an impact on the market, as ever worsening fundamentals can only be swept under the carpet for so long before they really start stinking up the place, and indeed, as Tim points out at 5:30 into the interview, even the IMF now realizes that soon the eventual second domino will fall, and it is better the be prepared (via the previously discussed infinitely expanded credit line), than to have to scramble in the last minute as was necessary in May. In other words, the storm clouds are gathering and only fools will invest in risk asset without getting some additional clarity on what is happening in Europe. The bottom line as Backshall asks is: "do they default now or default later." And that pretty much sums it up. Buy stocks at your own peril.
Incidentally all this is happening as we read in an exclusive Bloomberg piece that "four months after the 110 billion- euro ($140 billion) bailout for Greece, the nation still hasn’t disclosed the full details of secret financial transactions it used to conceal debt" and that EuroStat still has not received the required disclosure about just how fake (or real) the Greek debt situation truly is. When one steps back and ponders just how bad (and unknown) the situation in Europe is, and that stocks are unchanged for the year, one must conclude, as Dylan Grice does every week, that the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.
Back in April, when we discussed the inception of the IMF’s then brand new New Arrangement to Borrow (NAB) $500 billion credit facility, we asked rhetorically, "If the IMF believes that over half a trillion in short-term funding is needed imminently, is all hell about to break loose." A month later the question was answered, as Greece lay smoldering in the ashes of insolvency, and the developed world was on the hook for almost a trillion bucks to make sure the tattered eurozone remained in one piece (leading to such grotesque abortions as Ireland, whose cost of debt is approaching 6%, funding Greek debt at 5%).
Well, if that was the proverbial canary in the coalmine, today the entire flock just keeled over and died: today the IMF announced it "expanded and enhanced its lending tools to help contain the occurrence of financial crises." As a result, the IMF has as of today extended the duration of its existing Flexible Credit Line (FCL) to two years, concurrently removing the borrowing cap on this facility, which previously stood at 1000 percent of a member’s IMF quota, in essence making the FCL a limitless credit facility, to be used to rescue whomever, at the sole discretion of the IMF’s overlords. Additionally, as the FCL has some make believe acceptance criteria (and with countries such as Poland, Columbia, and Mexico having had access to it, these must certainly be sky high), the IMF is introducing a brand new credit facility, the Precautionary Credit Line (PCL), which will be geared for members with "sound policies [which just happen to need an unlimited source of rescue funding] who nevertheless may not meet the FCL’s high qualification requirements." In other words everyone. In yet other words, the IMF as of today, has a limitless facility to bail out anyone in the world, without a maximum bound in how much is lendable. One wonders who would be stupid enough to take advantage of the gullibility of IMF’s biggest backers (the US), to borrow an infinite amount of money for any reason whatsoever… And just what all this means for the imminent explosion of the amount of money in circulation…Not to mention the brand new Ben Bernanke smokescreen of…
As had been widely expected, today (a day before the stress test results finally stop leaking, compliments of the securities and exchange commission) the senate passed a measure approving the expansion of the credit line from the Treasury to the FDIC to $100 billion, from $30 billion previously. The vote passed 91 to 5. In addition, the FDIC will now have half a trillion credit limit that will expire by the end of 2010. As the senate has firmly decided that dollars are now not worth even their weight in zero-ply toilet paper, it makes sense to see just how quickly the FDIC has managed to eat through the Deposit Insurance Fund, of which it had roughly $19 billion at the end of 2008, and now has a couple of pennies above zero, which any way one looks at it is less than the statutory DIF reserve minimum of 1.15% of insured deposits (indicatively, the minimum balance in the DIF (at least according to existing laws: once can imagine these will be promptly "adjusted") should be $54 billion, or 1.15% of the $4.7 trillion in insured deposits. Once it falls below that amount the FDIC must come up with a restoration plan to raise the DIF to that level. Good luck with that) .
And all this was accomplished in a mere four months.
Oh, and by the way, advisor for the FDIC, in case you missed it before, is Perella Weinberg (here is the link for the ongoing Zero Hedge FDIC-Perella Weinberg compensation FOIA initiative).
[click on table for larger image] hat tip Guillermo
Chinese home prices in August rose the most in more than six years, indicating local government efforts to avert a housing bubble have failed. Average new-home prices in the 70 cities rose 1.2% in August from July, the biggest increase since January 2010, while the value of home sales jumped 33% last month from a year earlier. At the same time, prices in Tier 1 cities, soared 3.5%, the ...
By Knowledge Wharton. Originally published at ValueWalk.
While most of people have already decided whom to vote for in the presidential election, there are still quite a few undecideds. A new app, called ‘Voter,’ promises to help bring more clarity about candidates based on their stances on issues and one’s own beliefs. The app developers say it also automates what could otherwise be a laborious process of determining candidates’ credentials and positions, and reduces human bias in the selection process.
Hunter Scarborough, the creator of the Voter app, says plans call for extending the app beyond the November presidential elections to candidates in races for Senate, House of Representatives and governors’ seats. Next, he plans to take it further to local elections such as for city councils, and may also go international. He discusses th...
China has stanched a string of defaults and speculation authorities will continue to stave off failures is leaving investors the most bullish on local junk bonds in five years, despite record maturities.
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Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer. One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."
Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.
Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.' Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color). Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...
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