Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’s ETF Digest’

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 31, 2009

Even bears need a stimulant to get in their act going. It wasn’t a disastrous day but it wasn’t a good way to end the month given the sour China note. The new maxim may be: “when China catches a cold the rest of the world gets the flu”. Of course this would be a substitution for what used to begin “the US”. It may also be true to say, we just all have the flu, H1N1 or whatever.

My first business trip to China in the mid-1980s allowed me to witness ordinary citizens trading stocks on the street corner in front of the recently opened stock exchange. It was fun to watch and, if you’re a student of history, you’ll realize that’s the way things were done in London and the US more than a century ago.

More profound is the worries what a new bear market in Shanghai portends for markets where shockwaves are felt hardest—commodity, currency and emerging markets —all hit hard today.

Without posting it until the end of the commentary as usual, let’s look at the Shanghai CSI 300 Index right away. It’s the most popular of all the Chinese indexes. It’s important to remember that the constituents may have little to do with popular FXI (FSTSE Xinhua 25 Index ETF) but certainly the index has a psychological impact.

First the daily view with my annotations that include an RSI (Relative Strength Index), two moving averages, candlesticks (for visual effect) and DeMark Indicators. In the blue circles you’ll two occasions where the RSI recently has slipped below 30 indicating severely oversold conditions. Also, note DeMark counts reaching 9 sequential readings heralding some trend exhaustion both on the upside and downside. I’ve also drawn two orange support lines where I think we could find support to work off the oversold RSI but it won’t take much in that regard.

 

 

Read Dave’s full market comment here; below are a couple SPY charts.   

 

I promised we’d look at monthly charts today and that’s what we’ll do. That will give us some perspective.

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 24, 2009

I suppose it depends what you’re doing or your positions but it was a slow day. A few markets a little more stretched than others (gold and Uncle Buck) managed to reverse course some, but other than that I was drumming my fingers. It was a quiet day for economic data and we’re near the end of earnings news and summer for that matter. The latter goes by way too fast doesn’t it?

Long time bear Nouriel Roubini penned a negative outlook for the economy in this piece from FT.com. In it he discussed the risks of a “W” shaped economic future with a double dip recession likely. Many concur with this view.

Others believe the stimulus from liquidity is still in the system keeping conditions ripe for risk takers and the Fed will be loathe to upset these conditions.

Continue reading Dave’s Daily here >>.

 

 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry, August 18, 2009

harpotypes

We might know more about market direction after this week ends. Thursday’s market moving data includes Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed survey while those are followed by Friday’s home sales data. Taken together these could move things along. Or, perhaps will just slog thru news until Labor Day when folks return to their trading posts en masse.

So we got a healthy bounce today but it didn’t undo Friday and Monday’s collective damage. We were a little short-term oversold and a bounce shouldn’t surprise even though economic and company news wasn’t great. But, the “better than expected” spin was in for retailers which frankly was laughable. And, golly, banks reported losses on credit cards were slowing (maybe because Chucky’s not shopping?) which was seen as a positive. Homebuilders disappointed (oops, scratch that), a “worse than expected” report was spun positively because more single family homes were built. I wonder about that since there are too many of them aren’t there? But that’s the way things are these days.  

 
 

More ETF Digest here >>.

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s Market Comment, August 14, 2009

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Investors were just cruising along minding our own business but got clobbered on a Friday afternoon in mid-August by consumer data. After yesterday’s worse than expected jobs and retail sales, and the market rising anyway, you’d think worse than expected consumer data wouldn’t faze bulls. But, it did evidently.

There were some clues within the volume data I mentioned yesterday that appeared to show significant volume to the downside in the much followed SPY chart the previous two days. This poor reading was masked by the headline data which is why I was suspicious and mentioned it.

Today’s volume was just okay but breadth was decidedly negative. 

[For the entire Market Comment, go here >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 10, 2009

Read entire Market Comment here.

Sure, investors are fatigued and it’s August, a time when volume typically grinds lower. It does provide “stick save” opportunities for those who can and today was no different for Da Boyz.

Volume did fall off a cliff today but let’s just remember Da Boyz are on holiday, sort of, but the HAL 9000s have no such luxury. A few privates have been left behind to push whatever doodads HAL instructs. It’s almost like autopilot.

Breadth was a push basically so there isn’t much to glean from it one way or another. 

There was this article about the VIX in Bloomberg today suggesting a September sell-off. Why not? It’s happened plenty of times before.

 

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, August 4, 2009

There are crazy headlines everyday and you don’t need me to cherry pick them all but I liked the following:

“Consumer spending rises in June as incomes fall”. Reuters
“SEC to ban ‘Flash Trades’ that gives brokers edge, Schumer says”. Bloomberg
“Fed plans to strengthen bank examinations with expert teams, Tarullo say”. Bloomberg
“Duncan wields Obama’s $100 billion to make US schools more like Chicago” Bloomberg
“Financials surge, save rally.” MarketWatch
“Demand surges for clunker killer.” MarketWatch
“6 keys to investing for doomsday.” MSN Money
“Jon and Kate Gosselin have onscreen spat.” Yahoo News

I was educated in Chicago’s public schools and let me take this opportunity to express my sympathies to parents who may have school age children.

Okay, enough fun, let’s turn to markets where, with the exception of pending home sales, the news wasn’t pretty. But bulls have momentum and are focusing on news they like while ignoring or spinning that which they don’t.

Volume remains light no matter how you spin it and breadth was positive overall. 

 

Continue reading Dave Fry’s Market Comment here >>

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 3, 2009


Emerging Markets from Russell Fry on Vimeo.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in:

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com. 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 17, 2009

Doh!!! Tomorrow is another Treasury auction and to prepare our fearless Fed is buying while our Treasury is selling. How does that work? Two separate sets of books. The former injects reserves into the system by buying Treasury debt and counts it as an (cough) asset. While the latter sells debt which is a responsibility of the taxpayer. It’s that credit/debit deal. Make sense to you? Tony Soprano knows how this works since he cooked the books and got the vig.

Volume remains light and breadth negative to neutral.

The first two charts indicate different time views. The daily NYMO reflects only ultra-short term conditions. In that view we see markets as much oversold. But the intermediate to longer term Summation Index shows a much overbought market rolling over. The latter is a more impressive condition and warning flags are being posted.


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 8, 2009

Markets are becoming predictable but still entertaining especially if you’re a spectator. If you have some TARP money sitting on your trading desk with volume this light you can really push things around.

I know, I know, many think the government (the PPT?) is in there buying. This and the previous administration are the most interventionist and scripted I’ve ever seen. But, there’s no evidence this is occurring and they’ll never admit to it anyway. That leaves us with all that liquidity sloshing trading desks needing to play games and/or keep things propped.

Again, courtesy of Decision Point is the chart below containing the McClellan Summation Index which basically accumulates market breadth (advance/decline). With a reading over 1,000, it reflects conditions as “much overbought”.

The internal daily chart below is annotated by DeMark and RSI indicators for QQQQ. Here you can see a 9 count for DeMark and an RSI > 70 meaning short-term oversold. You can see the reaction from the previous DeMark 9 combined with an RSI > 70 in early May. Remember, these are just short-term indications that can help you time your positions more profitably.


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Zero Hedge

Norway Desperately Needs Large Oil Discoveries

 

Norway Desperately Needs Large Oil Discoveries

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Thanks to cost-cuts and large oil discoveries made before the oil price crash, Norway will be able to sustain its oil and gas production over the next five years. But reduced exploration drilling and lack of big discoveries in the past two years spell trouble for Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer after 2023, authorities fear.

Nearly two-thirds of the undiscovered resources are thought to be located in the Baren...



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Phil's Favorites

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

 

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

Courtesy of 

Over the summer, I reviewed Steven Johnson’s book about innovation, called The Invention of Air. Johnson shows us how a simple insight by one of the least technically gifted scientists in history led to a massive chain reaction of human understanding about the world we live in and how it truly works.

If you missed my synopsis, it’s here.

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Digital Currencies

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

 

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

Courtesy of 

Over the summer, I reviewed Steven Johnson’s book about innovation, called The Invention of Air. Johnson shows us how a simple insight by one of the least technically gifted scientists in history led to a massive chain reaction of human understanding about the world we live in and how it truly works.

If you missed my synopsis, it’s here.

...



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ValueWalk

Payback - a key term for investors in 2018

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

When will I get my money back? This week Tim Bennett explains how payback can answer this simple, but vital, question.

The post Payback – a key term for investors in 2018 appeared first on ValueWalk.

Sign up for ValueWalk's free newsletter here.

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Insider Scoop

Vetr Crowd Upgrades Exxon Mobil

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Vetr community upgraded Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) from 2.5 stars (Sell) to 3 stars (Hold). Crowd confidence reflected this sentiment, with 50 percent of Vetr users giving the stock a Hold rating, 33.3 percent a Sell, and 13.7 percent a Buy, indicating mixed outlooks on the stock.

See how crowdsourced ratings could help you time the market

This crowd upgrade came as shares of the oil company closed at $86.79. The Vetr community and analysts alike remained slightly bullish, with Vetr users setting a $87.51 target price and analysts setting target prices within the $80-$90 range.

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals...



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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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